Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| 7 Aug, 2013 2013
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Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Oilseeds Edible Oils Spices Sugar Cotton Guar Complex

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar Chief Manager- Agri Commodities vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Shruti Ghanekar Research Associate shruti.ghanekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133 Anuj Choudhary Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| 7 Aug, 2013 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
NEWS HIGHLIGHTS
Agriculture Sector Grows at 1.9% in 2012-13
As per the Provisional Estimates released by CSO on 31st May, 2013 this sector is estimated to grow at 1.9% in 2012-13 at 2004-05 prices and the contribution of agriculture to the GDP is likely to decline to 13.7 % in 2012-13. The decline in growth rate and contribution of agriculture to GDP is on account of structural changes due to a shift from a traditional agrarian economy to a service dominated one. In order to bring reforms in agricultural marketing, the Ministry framed a model APMC Act in 2003 and circulated to States/UTs for adoption. Government has also been pursuing with the States/UTs to undertake amendments to their APMC Acts to inter alia provide for direct marketing, contract farming, farmers/consumers markets, setting up of markets in private/cooperative sector and e-trading so as to provide alternative competitive marketing channels to farmers and bring in more transparency in the marketing system. Overall, these initiatives have been successful in ensuring a better deal for farmers as witnessed by rising production levels, yields and incomes. (Source: PIB, GOI)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on August 6, 2013
WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

18733 5542 60.79 105.3 1283.2

-2.34 -2.52 -0.12 -1.18 -1.49

-3.18 -3.70 -0.04 2.15 -3.08

-3.91 -5.55 0.93 2.02 5.80

7.58 4.92 9.48 14.21 -20.44

.Source: Reuters

FCI gets Rs 4,300 cr against food subsidy claim of Rs 32,652 cr

The government has paid nearly Rs 4,300 crore to the Food Corporation of India (FCI) as against the food subsidy claim of Rs 32,652.43 crore of last fiscal, the Parliament was informed today. For the year 2012-13, provisional claim of Rs 32,652.43 crore has been received from FCI against which amount of Rs 4,295.05 crore has already been released, Food Minister, K V Thomas said in a written reply to the Lok Sabha. Thomas informed that the Food Ministry has approached Finance Ministry for additional requirement of funds. The final claim of FCI till 2011-12 has already been settled except for an amount of Rs 109.61 crore due for 2010-11, he added. The government has released Rs 33,558.25 crore as food subsidy till July in the current fiscal. Food subsidy is released to FCI for the subsidised foodgrains distributed under public distribution system (PDS) and other welfare schemes and for keeping buffer stock. (Source: Business Line)

Govt not to ban onion export for now

The Government has decided not to ban export of onions at the moment, as shipments this year have been lower than last year. It also feels that the sharp rise in onion prices in the domestic market is mainly due to supply problems and not exports. An inter-ministerial committee comprising senior officials from the Department of Commerce, the Agriculture Ministry, the Food Processing Ministry, the Consumer Affairs Ministry and Nafed has decided against an export ban after examining figures for production, export and prices. We have analysed the situation and feel that placing a ban on exports will not have a significant effect on domestic prices as exports are already lower than last year and international prices, too, are not ruling high, Commerce Department Joint Secretary Asit Tripathy. (Source: Business Line)

Sugar mills owe Rs 5,800 crore to cane farmers

Sugar mills have paid nearly R53,000 cr to sugarcane farmers and over R5,800 cr was due till June of the 2012-13 marketing year ending September, the Lok Sabha was informed Tuesday. Food minister KV Thomas said the total cane price payable till June of the 2012-13 marketing year (October-September) stood at R58,806.97 cr and out of that mills had made payments to the tune of R52,895.94 cr. Cane price arrears stood at R5,821.03 till June, which is about 10% of the total payable amount. Mills in Uttar Pradesh, the leading sugar producing state, owes maximum to cane farmers at R4,234.60, the data showed. The cane price arrears in Maharashtra were almost nil. The outstanding payment of sugar mills in Tamil Nadu, Uttarakhand and Karnataka stood at R501.37 cr, R375.82 cr and R352.69 cr, respectively."The dues position changes continuously on account of fresh supplies received and payment made for previous supplies. As such, it is not possible to indicate the time by which dues are likely to be paid to the farmers," Thomas said while replying to a query on the deadline by which arrears of sugarcane growers would be cleared. (Source: Reuters)

Food grains worth Rs 236.32 crore lost in Apr-June: K.V Thomas

The government has incurred a loss of Rs 236.32 crore till June this fiscal due to damage of FCI foodgrains in storage and transit, Parliament was informed today. About 1,13,881 tonnes of foodgrains, valuing Rs 236.32 crore has been lost in transit, storage and due to theft, Food Minister K.V Thomas said in a written reply to the Lok Sabha. According to the data placed before the Lower House, the government has lost Rs 120.29 crore worth of foodgrains in storage, Rs 106.18 crore-worth of grain in transit, while the rest Rs 9.85 crore-worth of foodgrains were non-issuable. Food Corporation of India (FCI) is the governments nodal agency that procures and distributes foodgrains. Thomas said that considering large volume of procurement of foodgrains by FCI some losses may occur during storage due to pilferage/ thefts, floods, during transportation and loss of moisture during prolonged storage. However, steps have been taken to ensure the quantum of foodgrains lost/damaged at bare minimum level in spite of increase in procurement and stocks of FCI over the last three years, he said. (Source: Business Line)

Govt may open stalls for onions

With onion prices soaring, chief minister Sheila Dikshit has ordered a crackdown on hoarders and black marketers, keeping in view the sensitivity of the issue in an election year. This year, the supply of onion to the country in the first six days of August has been lower by 14% or 629 tonnes, compared with the same period last year. In the retail market, onions are selling for Rs 45-55 per kg, compared with around Rs 20 just a few weeks ago. The price touched Rs 40 in retail markets in midJuly also but it had come down after supply normalized. The wholesale price, too, currently ranges from Rs 10.5 to Rs 32.5 per kg. The government expects prices to stabilize within two weeks. Concerned over the rising onion prices, the government on Tuesday said it is considering setting up outlets across cities to sell the vegetable at reasonable rates. (Source: Times of India)

Soyameal exports down 36% in July

Soyameal exports fell by 36.42 per cent to 1.07 lakh tonnes in July as the domestic price is higher than the global rates, an industry body said today. The bulk of the exports were made to sanction-hit Iran. Shipments of soyameal, used as animal feed, stood at 1.68 lakh tonnes in the same month last year, Soyabean Processors Association (SOPA) said in a statement. In the first ten months of the current oil marketing year (October-September), soyameal exports decreased by 14 per cent to 31.15 lakh tonnes compared with 36.10 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of previous oil year. (Source: Business Line)

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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| 7 Aug, 2013 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana Futures have shown a moderate recovery in the last few days due to rise in demand arising from the upcoming festive season. Also, a significant rise in price of Dollar Chana, a substitute for Desi Chana has resulted in improved demand for the latter. Another factor which supported the prices is the proposal by the Rajasthan Government to end the stock limit in Chana currently existing in the state. This proposal is however yet to be passed. However, prices corrected from higher levels on account of profit taking and settled 0.79% lower on Tuessday. Higher chana production in 2012-13 coupled with a higher sowing of the kharif pulses have pressurized prices over the past few weeks. As per a circular by NCDEX dated July 25 2013, Special Margin of 5% on the Short side will be imposed in all running contracts and yet to be launched contract in Chana (SYMBOL :CHARJDDEL) with effect from beginning of day Saturday, July 27, 2013. Ministry of Agriculture released its fourth Advance estimates of Food grain production on Monday wherein it pegged Chana signifincalty higher at record 8.8 mn tn in the current season 2012-13. With a significant hike in MSP of kharif Pulses for 2013-14 season, area under cultivation is expected to increase in the coming season too. Further good monsoon may not only support good yield of kharif pulses, but also ensure favorable soil condition for sowing of Rabi pulses vizChana and Moong. As per the data released by the ministry of Agriculture, area under kharif nd Pulses stood at 79.50 lakh ha as on 2 August 2013, up by 26.2 percent compared to the corresponding period last year.

Market Highlights
Unit Chana Spot - NCDEX Chana- NCDEX Aug'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

as on Aug 6, 2013 % change Last 2920 2771 Prev day -0.36 -0.79 WoW 6.61 5.04 MoM -5.04 -6.98
Source: Reuters

YoY -41.01 -41.35

Spread Matrix
Closing 2920 2771 2823 2912 20-Aug-13 -149 0 -

as on Aug 6, 2013 20-Sep-13 -97 52 0 18-Oct-13 -8 141 89 0 as on Aug 5, 2013 Stocks as on 3 Aug 77059 59064 11957 148080
rd

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Bikaner Delhi Indore Total Stocks as on 5 Aug 76008 58853 11957 146818
th

Qty in Process 160 30 139 329

Qty in Process 160 30 139 329

309

111

938

1358

Demand supply scenario

According to fourth advance Estimates released on 22 July 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at record 18.45 mn tn compared to the third advance estimates of 18 mn tn and 17.09 mn tn produced in 2011-12 seaosn. Kharif Pulses witnessed a marginal decline in the output which was offset by a considerable rise in Rabi output, especially Chana. Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), helped expand overall chana acreage in 2012-13 seasons. Chana sowing in 2012-13 was 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. As per the estimates, Chana output is pegged at a record 8.8 mn tn compared with its third advance estimates of 8.49 million tonnes and a previous record of 8.2 mn tn in 2010-11.
nd

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX September contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Chana is expected to trade on a positive note today as stock limit in Chana will be removed by the Rajasthan Government. This factor is expected to support prices. Also, an increase in the margins on the short side may support prices. However, higher sowing of kharif pulses and estimated higher output may cap sharp gains during the intraday.

Technical Levels
Contract Chana Sept Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for Aug 7, 2013 Resistance 2865-2900

2740-2780

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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| 7 Aug, 2013 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Soybean
Soybean futures opened higher over the weather departments forecast of rains in the soybean growing regions in the next few days coupled with a weak Rupee. However, prices corrected from higher levels towards the end of the day as overall higher sowing and expectations of a record crop have kept prices under downside pressure and settled 0.14% higher. According to the fourth Advance estimates of Food grain production released by the Ministry of Agriculture Soybean output is pegged significantly higher at record 14.6 mn tn in the current season 2012-13 compared with 12.2 mn tn in 2011-12. Total nine Oilseeds production is pegged at 31 MT in 2012-13, slightly higher than 29.79 MT achieved in the previous year. Southwest monsoon which slowed its pace and was flat to below average in the previous two weeks, recovered significantly during the week ending 24th July 2013. As per the IMD, Cumulative rainfall as on 28th July in the central India (major soy belt), were 45 percent above th the LPA, while in the week ending 24 July they rains were recorded up by 43 percent in Central India. As per data released by the ministry of Agriculture, area under oilseeds nd was recorded at 173.21 la ha on 2 Aug, 2013, an increase of 19.56 percent as compared to the corresponding period last year. International Markets CBOT Soybean futures traded on a negative note and settled 0.41% lower on Tuesday as favorable weather in US for soybean pressurized prices. However, tight supplies limited the downside. The USDA Crop Progress report rated the U.S. crop at 64% good-toexcellent, against 63% last week on favorable weather in the Midwest. USDA reported that 39% of the crop is setting pods vs. 69% a year ago. Also, 79% of the soybean crop is blooming vs. 93% a year ago. Old-crop soybean inventories are expected to drop to a nine-year low by Aug. 31, 2013 due to last year's drought-reduced harvest and strong demand from China and domestic buyers.

Market Highlights

as on Aug 6, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 1.03 4.74 0.14 -0.41 -0.28 -0.06 -1.43 -1.91 4.53 2.82

Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX Soybean- NCDEX Oct '13 Fut Soybean- CBOT Aug'13 Fut RM Seed Spot- NCDEX RM Seed- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

Last 3426 2935 1324 3453 3208

MoM -8.54 -19.13 -16.61 4.53 -5.87

YoY -24.2 -35.5 -17.6 -23.3 -26.4

USc/Bsh
`/qtl `/qtl

Source: Reuters

Soybean Spread Matrix

Closing 3426 Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 2935 2940 2965.5 0 5 0 18-Oct-13 -491 20-Nov-13 -486

as on Aug 6, 2013 20-Dec-13 -460.5 30.5 25.5 0 as on Aug 6, 2013 20-Sep-13 -211.4 34 0 18-Oct-13 -185.4 60 26 0 as on Aug 5, 2013 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 as on Aug 5, 2013 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 81 0 20 101 NCDEX October contract

Mustard Seed Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 3453.4 3208 3242 3268 20-Aug-13 -245.4 0 -

Soybean stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Akola Nagpur Sagar Total Stocks as on 5th Aug 73 0 0 73 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 81 0 40 121 Stocks as on 3rd Aug 73 0 0 73 Stocks as on 3rd Aug 1876 615 15054 644 59014 3409 1769 82381

Outlook
Soybean is expected to trade on a mixed note today. Higher output expectations may pressurize prices. However, forecast of rains in the soybean regions may support prices at lower levels. If rainfall activity moderates in the coming weeks then we may see prices consolidating at current levels amid higher sowing.

RM Seed stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Alwar Bharatpur Bikaner Hapur Jaipur Kota Sriganganagar Total Stocks as on 5th Aug 1776 363 14832 644 57689 3138 1769 80211

Rape/mustard Seed
Mustard seed futures traded on a mixed note. Increasing demand coupled with reports of damage of the soybean crop supported prices. However, prices corrected from higher levels on account of profit taking and settled marginally lower by 0.06%. Comfortable supplies in the domestic markets have kept prices under check. Agriculture ministry in its fourth advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.82 mn tn, up by 18.4% compared to 2011-12 season.

Technical Chart Soybean

Outlook
Mustard seed may trade on a mixed note today. Good demand around the MSP level may restrict further fall in the prices while higher production and sufficient supplies this season may cap sharp upside.

Technical Levels
Contract Soybean NCDEX Oct Futures RM Seed NCDEX Sept Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for Aug 7, 2013 Support 2900-2920 3200-3220 Resistance 2955-2975 3265-3290
Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| 7 Aug, 2013 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Refined Soy Oil
Ref soy oil futures traded on a positive note due to festive demand coupled with weakness in the Rupee. Comfortable supplies coupled with a recovery in the Rupee led to profit taking towards the end of the day and settled 0.44% higher on Tuesday. Agri Ministrys proposed to increase the import duty on refined oil coupled with fears of soybean crop damage also supported prices at lower levels. India meet 50-55 percent of its edible consumption through imports and thus rupee factor is a major determinant of edible oil prices. As per the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India Imports of vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, rose 3.2% to 947591 tn in June, supported by sunflower and soy oil imports ahead of Ramadan. Monthly soy oil imports rose 2.7% as local supplies are almost exhausted before the new planting season for soybean. Stockpiles of edible oil at ports on July 1 stood at 690,000 tn, the trade body said, higher than 675,000 tn on June 1. Stocks were still on the higher side despite the decline in monthly imports.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit `/10 kg `/10 kg USc/ Bushel MYR/Tonne `/10 kg Last 673.25 665.65 42.11 2310 503.70 Prev day 0.24 0.44 -1.43 0.00 1.37

as on Aug 6, 2013

Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut Soybean Oil- CBOTAugust'13 Fut
CPO-Bursa Malaysia August '13 Fut CPO-MCX- July '13 Futures

WoW 4.22 3.15 0.00 1.18 1.53

MoM -2.29 -3.16 -10.8 -2.78 -0.73

YoY -13.40 -14.56 -18.20 -20.01 -10.74

Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 673.25 665.65 647.85 619.9 20-Aug-13 -7.6 0 20-Sep-13 -25.4 -17.8 0 -

as on Aug 6, 2013 18-Oct-13 -53.35 -45.75 -27.95 0 as on Aug 6, 2013

Outlook
Ref soy oil may trade on a positive note today on the back of festive demand coupled with higher soybean prices and weakness in the Rupee. However, comfortable stock position of imported edible oil coupled may cap sharp gains and pressurize prices at higher levels.

CPO Spread Matrix

31-Aug-13 30-Sep-13 31-Oct-13 Closing 503.7 495.6 486.6 31-Aug-13 0 30-Sep-13 -8.1 0 -

Crude Palm Oil

MCX CPO Futures traded on a positive note yesterday on account of festive demand as well as weakness in the Rupee. However, a recovery in the Rupee towards the end of the day capped sharp gains and settled 1.37% on Tuesday. Malaysian palm oil futures had declined to the lowest level this year and have spurred demand for most consumed cooking oil. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products in July increased 4.2 percent to 1,406,935 tonnes from 1,350,311 tonnes shipped during June. Indonesia has set the export tax for Palm oil at 10.5% for August, unchanged as against 10.5% for July. According to Malaysian Palm oil Board, exports increased by 0.29% in June against May, while end stocks declined by 9.4%.Exports of Malaysian palm oil products during July 1-15 declined 22.8% at 547,857 tn as against 709,860 tn during June 1-15. Exports in June rose 7 percent due to Ramadan demand. Communal feasting during Ramadan drives up consumption of vegetable oil. India's refined palm oil imports declined 20.7 per cent in June to 296, 230 tn, from a record high 373,837 tonnes in May as overall weakness in the Rupee made imports expensive.

31-Oct-13 -17.1 -9 0

Technical Chart Ref Soy Oil

NCDEX September contract

Technical Chart Crude Palm Oil

MCX Aug contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
CPO futures are expected to trade higher today due to lower level demand coupled with festive buying. Overall weakness Rupee may also support prices. However, comfortable supplies may cap sharp upside in the prices.

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Sept NCDEX Futures CPO MCX Aug Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for Aug 7, 2013 Support 641-645 497-500 Resistance 651-654 507-510

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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| 7 Aug, 2013 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Spices
Jeera
Jeera Futures continue to trade higher overseas as well as improved domestic demand supported prices. However, higher arrivals and good rains in Gujarat capped sharp gains and settled 0.44% higher on Tuesday. Good rains in the main jeera growing regions have increased the moisture content of the soil, improving prospects of a better sowing in the coming season. Currently, about 70% of total arrivals have been traded in the mandis. According to IBIS, India exported 9462.64 tn of jeera in June. The major destinations were UAE, Nepal, Vietnam & USA. In the global markets, there is a supply crunch due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Syria and Turkey, which has raised supply concerns from these two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to decline in Syria and Turkey. 1% Jeera of Indian origin is being offered for Singapore at $2,3502,400/tn (FOB Mum) while for Europe at $2,750-2,850/tn (FOB Mum).

Market Highlights
Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl Last 13536 13113 5300 4612 Prev day -0.07 0.44 0.00 -2.04

as on Aug 6, 2013 % Change WoW 0.60 1.98 -2.53 -11.21 MoM -0.84 -0.19 -6.36 -18.95 YoY -17.96 -20.07 -8.24 -24.47

Jeera Spot- NCDEX Jeera- NCDEX July '13 Aug Turmeric Spot- NCDEX Turmeric- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut

Source: Reuters

Jeera Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 13535.9 13112.5 13285 13482.5 20-Aug-13 -423.4 0 20-Sep-13 -250.9 172.5 0 -

as on Aug 6, 2013 18-Oct-13 -53.4 370 197.5 0 as on Aug 6, 2013 20-Aug-13 -688 0 20-Sep-13 -622 66 0 18-Oct-13 -514 174 108 0 as on Aug 5, 2013 Stocks as on Qty in 3rd Aug Process 1505 4800 6305 210 NCDEX Sept contract 0 0 0 0

Arrivals production and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 4,000 bags on Tuesday. Exports of Jeera in 2012 - 2013 stood at 79,900 tn, an increase of 75%. (Source:
Spices Board)

Turmeric Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 5300 4612 4678 4786

Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 40-45 lakh bags (55 kgs each), marginally higher than 40 lakh bags last year. Carryover stocks from 2011-12 harvest were around 8-9 lakh bags.

Outlook
Jeera may trade with a positive bias as overseas as well as domestic demand may support. However, higher supplies and good rains in the jeera sowing regions may cap gains. Overall trend remains positive for Jeera due to overseas demand, as Syria & Turkey are not shipping.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Jeera Turmeric Jodhpur Unjha Total Nizamabad Stocks as on 5th Aug 1430 3996 5426 8595 Qty in Process 0 6 6 0

Turmeric
Turmeric futures continued to decline as huge carryover stocks as well as good sowing progress have mounted downside pressure on the prices. However, an increase in the margins on the short side supported prices at lower levels and settled 2.04% lower on Tuesday. The regulator imposed 10% special margin on short side in Turmeric w.e.f 06/08/2013.

Technical Chart Jeera

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Spot markets remained closed on Tuesday on account of Amavasya. st Sowing of Turmeric in AP is reported at 0.39 lakh ha as on 31 July, as against 0.4 lakh ha last year and a normal sowing of 0.46 lakh ha. Production in 2012-13 is reported around 45 lakh bags, lower by 4050%. It is estimated that current years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. (1 bag= 75 kgs). Exports for 2012-13 stood at 80,050 tn, marginally higher than 79,500 tn last year. (Source: Spices Board) Outlook Turmeric is expected to trade on a negative note today on account of huge carryover stocks. The ongoing sowing coupled with good monsoon progress may also pressurize prices.. However, an increase in the margins on the short side coupled with declining arrivals may support prices at lower levels.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX Sept contract

Technical Outlook
Jeera NCDEX Sept Futures Turmeric NCDEX Sept Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

Valid for Aug 7, 2013

Support 13120-13200 4530-4600 Resistance 13360-13440 4750-4830
Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| 7 Aug, 2013 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar futures traded on a flat note with a negative bias as ample supplies have kept prices under check. However, lower level buying as well as expectations of improvement in demand ahead of the upcoming festive season supported prices at lower levels. An increase in the import duty as well as export demand also restricted a sharp downside. Good monsoon conditions in Maharashtra and Karnataka has led to expectations of recovery in the cane yield, keeping prices under pressure. Indian traders have signed deals to export 75,000 tonnes of white sugar in July, reversing an import trend after the rupee's depreciation. However, the same didnt reflect in the market as supplies are significantly higher. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane has been planted in nd 48.53 lk ha as on 2 Aug 2013 as compared to 50.06 lk ha last year as drought affected Maharashtra and Karnataka have reported lower area. Based on satellite images for June and field surveys carried out by ISMA (Indian Sugar Mills Association), total sugarcane acreage available for crushing in the sugar season 2013-14 will be about 51.50 lakh hectares, which is about 1.52% less than 52.30 lakh hectares last year. (Source: ET)

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar SpotNCDEX Sugar M- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut Sugar No 5- LiffeAug'13 Fut Sugar No 11-ICE October '13 Fut `/qtl 3007 `/qtl 488.3 $/tonne 367.78 $/tonne -0.06 0.64 -0.13 Last 3065

as on Aug 6, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.45 0.35 -0.46 -0.18 -2.24 MoM YoY 0.06 -18.05 1.18 -1.57 1.78 -14.45 -19.65 -24.19

Source: Reuters

Sugar Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 3064.8 3007 3011 3025 20-Aug-13 -57.8 0 20-Sep-13 -53.8 4 0 -

as on Aug 6, 2013 18-Oct-13 -39.8 18 14 0

Domestic Production and Exports

After producing surplus sugar in the current season, sugar output is expected to decline in 2013-14 season on account of lower plantings. However, good monsoon may curb some losses. According to the preliminary estimate of an industry body, Production is estimated to be 237 lakh tonne for 2013-14 season as compared to 250 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. According to trade body, with a domestic consumption of 235 lakh tonne and an expected production of 237 lakh tonne, the year 2013-14 will be a consecutive fourth year of surplus production for India. ISMA has estimated that the opening balance as on October 1, 2013 (for the new season 2013-14), will be around 80 lakh tonne, which is about 20 lakh tonne more than the normal opening balance.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Delhi Kolhapur Sangli Solapur Total Stocks as on 5th Aug 1698 5532 0 923 8153 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 0

as on Aug 5, 2013 Stocks as on 3rd Aug 1948 5650 21 923 8542 NCDEX Sept contract Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 0

Technical Chart - Sugar

Global Sugar Updates

LIFFE Sugar settled 0.64% higher on reports of cane damage in Brazil due to frost while ICE Sugar declined 0.06% as forecast for dried weather may boost crushing operations. Production in Brazil rose 60% to 2.4 mn tn in st 1 half of July as against 1.5 mn tn in second half of June. International Sugar Organization expects the global surplus to fall by 70% from 11.2 mn tn in 2012-13 to 3.5 mn tn in 2013-14 marketing year. Prices, in the long term have declined on account of abundant supplies from Brazil. According to UNICA, Brazilian mills have produced 88.95 lakh tn of sugar from the start of the cane season on April 1 through June, up 33 percent from 66.9 lakh tn a year ago. Mexico is expected to ship more than 700,000 tonnes sugar outside the US in 2012-13 season making the country a global supplier in more than a decade. Output in Mexico is reported around 6.97 mn tn in 2012-13 year.

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Sugar Futures are expected to trade on a mixed note. Higher supplies and expectations of improvement in the cane output may continue to pressurize prices. However, good export orders coupled with an increase in import duty and festive season demand may limit the downside.

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Sept NCDEX Futures Unit `/qtl

valid for Aug 7, 2013 Support 2993-3002 Resistance 3020-3030

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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| 7 Aug, 2013 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
MCX Cotton as well as NCDEX Kapas Futures opened on a positive note as the government allowed the Cotton Corporation of India to export more cotton in the current season. However, prices corrected towards the end on account of profit taking. Kapas settled 0.2% lower while Cotton settled unchanged. Higher sowing and above average rains so far in the country have also pressurized prices at higher levels. Ministry of Agriculture, in its fourth Advance estimates of Food grain production wherein it pegged Cotton output at 34 million bales (1 bale= 170 kg) in 2012-13, lower than the record 35.2 million bales in the previous year. With the cotton season nearing its end, arrivals have declined considerably. According to CCI, Cotton arrivals since the beginning of the th season (Oct 2012- Sep 2013) till 14 July is reported at 331.15, down 1.48 percent compared to same period last year.

Market Highlights
Unit `20 kgs `/Bale USc/Lbs Last 982.5 20230 85.82 90.8

as on Aug 6, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.20 1.50 0.00 4.55 0.49 0.40 0.22 -1.36 MoM YoY 1.50 #N/A 1.71 10.49 2.56 14.24 -2.37 8.16
Source: Reuters

NCDEX Kapas Apr Fut MCX Cotton July Fut ICE Cotton Oct 13 Cot look A Index

Cotton Spread Matrix

Closing 31-Oct-13 29-Nov-13 31-Dec-13 20230 19670 19670 31-Oct-13 0

as on Aug 6, 2013 29-Nov-13 31-Dec-13 -560 0 -560 0 0

Sowing Progress
Cotton sowing is nearing its end and almost 90% of sowing is completed till last week. As per the ministry of agriculture, cotton sowing was done nd on 108.52 la ha on 2 Aug 2013 as against 144.87 la ha last year. In Gujarat, cotton was sown on 26.13 la ha as on 29 July 2013 as against 21.92 la ha during the same period last year. In Rajasthan, it was done on th 2.94 la ha as on 30 July 2013 as against 4.47 la ha last year. In AP, st cotton sowing was undertaken on 18.65 la ha as on 31 July 2013 as against 18.14 la ha last year.
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Cotton Stock Position at MCX Warehouse

Location Aurangabad Yavatmal Rajkot Kadi Sendhwa Warangal Total Stocks as on 5th Aug 4900 200 95200 15500 0 0 115800

as on Aug 5, 2013 Stocks as on 3rd Aug 5000 200 6910 18600 0 0 30710

Domestic Production and Consumption

Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) in its latest meet dated 17 April 2013 has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to go up from 22.3 mn bales last year to 23.5 mn bales. Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales while imports are estimated 2.5 mn bales. However, Cotton Association of Indias estimates differ from that of the CAB which pegs cotton output for 201213 at 35.2 mn bales as on May 31 down 6% compared with 37.3 mn bales in 2011-12.
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Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Global Cotton Updates

ICE cotton traded on a positive note yesterday and settled 0.49% higher on reports of dry weather in Texas. However, expected higher stokcs in India coupled with worries of reduced demand from China, capped sharp upside. The USDA weekly crop progress report rated good/excellent condition at 45% against 45% last week and reduced the poor/very poor at 21% against 22% last week. The USDA monthly report increased its forecast for global stocks to 94.34mn bales from its previous forecast of 92.49 mn bales. The report also reduced US export estimates for 2012-13 crop year. ICAC has increased projections for global production and endings stocks for the 2013/14 crop year. As per USDA acreage report, the estimate for U.S. cotton planted acreage is down 17% from 2012, but is up from March 2013 estimates.

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX Oct contract

Outlook
Cotton prices are expected to trade higher due to higher export permission coupled with domestic demand. However, higher sowing as well as a good monsoon may cap sharp gains.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April 14 Fut Cotton MCX Oct Futures Unit `/20 kgs `/bale

valid for Aug 7, 2013 Support 969-976 19930-20080 Resistance 990-997 20380-20530
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

`
Wednesday| 7 Aug, 2013 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Guar Complex
Guar complex continued to trade southward as abundant supplies and expectations of higher production amid ample rains have mounted downside pressure on the prices. Early sowing this season will also ensure early harvesting of guar crop thereby leading to smooth supplies in the physical markets. prices witnessed some relief last week as some lower level buying supported prices. Traders are not ready to sell their stocks at such low levels and are ready to hold their stocks for better realization. Guar seed as well as Guar gum October Futures settled 3.94% and 3.97% lower on Tuesday. Overall trend in guar, since the relaunch of the futures contract, remained bearish. Higher production last year and comparatively lower exports have resulted into higher supplies this year. With early and above normal monsoon so far, prospects for next years crop are also strong.

Market Highlights
Unit Guar Seed SpotNCDEX Guar Seed- NCDEX Oct 13 Fut Guar Gum SpotNCDEX Guar Gum- NCDEX Oct 13 Fut `/qtl 4140 `/qtl 14053 `/qtl 11600 `/qtl -3.97 -8.98 -3.94 Last Prev day 5085 -9.19

as on Aug 6, 2013 % change WoW 1.71 0.49 1.81 -0.26 MoM -29.37 -42.74 -30.54 -43.08 YoY #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Source: Reuters

NCDEX Guarseed Spread Matrix

Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 Closing 5085.3 4140 4100 4130 18-Oct-13 -945.3 0 20-Nov-13 -985.3 -40 0 -

as on Aug 6, 2013 20-Dec-13 -955.3 -10 30 0 as on Aug 6, 2013 20-Nov-13 -2533.4 -80 0 20-Dec-13 -2263.4 190 270 0 as on Aug 5, 2013 Stocks as on 3rd Aug 69 131 20 Qty in Process 0 0 0

Monsoon and Sowing

During the last week, rains increased its intensity over areas growing soybean, groundnut and cotton while they eased in the northwest and the northeast regions. However, cumulative rainfall continues to remain above average. According to Rajasthan Farm Department, Guarseed acreage as on 22 July, 2013 stood at 12.77 lakh hectares compared with 10.15 lakh hectares sown during the same period last year.
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NCDEX Guar gum Spread Matrix

Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 Closing 14053.4 11600 11520 11790 18-Oct-13 -2453.4 0 -

Guarseed area increased significantly last year. With favorable monsoon and with attractive returns, acreage may remain higher in the coming season too.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Deesa Bikaner Sriganganagar Stocks as on 5th Aug 50 102 20 Qty in Process 0 0 0

Production and Exports

According to Rajasthan Farm Departments third advance estimates, Guarseed production stood at 20.23 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. Although production is higher compared to the previous year, but still it is much below the initial expectations on account of erratic monsoon last year. In the coming season, higher sowing along with timely rains may boost guar production across India. However, if rains turn truant in the major guar growing areas, then this may adversely impact output. Exports which touched record 7.07 lakh tonnes in the FY 2011-12, declined in the FY 2012-13 as US, the largest importer of Guar gum has stocked huge inventories. During the FY 2012-13, guar gum exports stood at 4.58 lakh tonnes during April 2012-February 2013. US has stocked

Technical Chart - Guar Seed

NCDEX October contract

Outlook
Guar seed and guar gum are expected to continue to trade lower as overall trend remains bearish due to higher sowing. If the current pace of rains continues and sowing increase significantly, we may see further downside over the short term. However, farmers may hold back their stocks expecting better realization in the coming days.

Technical Chart - Guar Gum

NCDEX October contract

Technical Outlook
Contract Guar Seed Oct (NCDEX) Guar Seed Oct (MCX) Guar Gum Oct (NCDEX) Guar Gum Oct (MCX) Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl

valid for Aug 7, 2013 Support 4000-4070 4000-4060 11330-11460 11360-11490 Resistance 4200-4270 4190-4260 11760-11900 11790-11930
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com