SPECIAL DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS THE BINOMIAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION One of the most widely known of all discrete

probability distributions is the binomial distribution. Several characteristics underlie the use of the binomial distribution. Characteristics of the Binomial Distribution 1. The experiment consists of n identical trials. 2. Each trial has only one of the two possible mutually exclusive outcomes, success (p) or a failure (q). 3. The probability of each outcome does not change from trial to trial, and 4. The trials are independent, thus we must sample with replacement. Notation: Formula: Combinations
10

x ~ Bin (n, p) , n = number of trials, p = probability of success and q = 1 p

P( x) n C x p x q n x
n

Cx
10

gives the number of ways of choosing x things from n things

10

C0

C1

C2

10

C10

1. Use the Formula to find probabilities where x ~ Bin (10, 0.4) (a) P(x = 0) = (b) P(x = 1) = (c) P(x=2 ) = (d) P (x 2) = (e) P (x > 2 ) = (f) P (x 2 ) =

2. Use the Binomial Tables to find the above binomial probabilities.

Mean and Standard deviation Mean:

np

Standard deviation npq

Shape of the distribution Symmetrical if p = 0.5 Skewed to the right if p < 0.5 Skewed to the left if p > 0.5

POISSON PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION The Poisson distribution is used for circumstances like the following: The number of airline crashes next year The number of people arriving at a drive-through window in the next hour The number of lightbulbs removed from inventory today The number of people arriving at your store in the next hour The number of typographical errors in our textbook on a given page Characteristics of the Poisson Distribution 1. There are a number of a certain occurences in a certain interval of time (or space). 2. The occurences are random and independent. 3. The occurences may be infinite. Notation: x ~ Po () , Formula: = mean number of occurrences in specific time period,

P( x)

x e
x!

1. Use the Formula to find probabilities where x ~ Po (9.5) (a) P(x = 0) =

(b) P(x = 1) =

(c) P(x=2 )= (d) P (x 2) =

(e) P (x > 2 ) = (f) P (x 2 ) =

2. Use the Poisson Tables to find the above probabilities.

Mean and Standard deviation Mean:

Standard deviation

Chapter 5 - Review Part B Discussion Questions 1. What is the difference between a binomial random variable and a Poisson random variable? 2. When can you use = np and = npq? 3. What is meant by the probability of at most one? 4. Describe a binomial experiment. 5. What are the conditions of a Poisson experiment?

Multiple choice 1. The factorial of 8 is: a. 36 b. 40,320 c. 5040 d. 35

2. The number of combinations for selecting 7 elements from 10 distinct elements is: a. 70 b. 120 c. 3 d. 100 3. The factorial of (9 9) is: a. zero

b. 362,880

c. 1

d. 81

4. The factorial of (4 0) is: a. 24 b. 1

c. zero

d. 10

5. The number of combinations for selecting zero elements from 7 distinct elements is: a. 1 b. 5040 c. 7 d. zero 6. The number of combinations for selecting 9 elements from 9 distinct elements is: a. zero b. 1 c. 81 d. 362,880 7. A court randomly selects a jury of five persons from a group of 15 persons. The total number of combinations is: a. 3,628,800 b. 5005 c. 3003 d.120 8. An investor randomly selects six stocks from 18 stocks for an investment portfolio. The total number of combinations is: a. 18,564 b. 479,001,600 c. 720 d. 8,568

9. In binomial experiments, the outcome called a success is an outcome: a. that is always beneficial b. that is linked to success c. to which the question refers d. that is favorable 10. Which of the following is not a condition of the binomial experiment? a. There are only two trials. b. Each trial has two and only two outcomes. c. p is the probability of success, q is the probability of failure, and p + q = 1. d. The trials are independent.

11. The parameters of the binomial probability distribution are: a. n, p, and q b. n, p, q, and x c. n, p, and x d. n and p 12. The binomial probability distribution is symmetric if: a. p is equal to .25 b. p is equal to .50 c. p is less than .50

d. p is greater than .50

13. The binomial probability distribution is skewed to the right if: a. p is equal to .25 b. p is equal to .50 c. p is less than .50 14. The binomial probability distribution is left skewed if: a. p is equal to .25 b. p is equal to .50 c. p is less than .50 15. The mean of a binomial distribution is: a. npq b. np c. square of npqd.

d. p is greater than .50

d. p is greater than .50

d. square root of npq

16. The standard deviation of a binomial distribution is: a. npq b. np c. square of npqd. d. square root of npq

17. Which of the following is an example of a binomial experiment? a. Rolling a die 10 times and observing for a number b. Selecting five persons and observing whether they are in favor of an issue, against it, or have no opinion c. Tossing a coin 20 times and observing for a head or a tail d. Drawing three marbles from a box that contains red, blue, and yellow marbles 18. Which of the following is not a condition to apply the Poisson probability distribution? a. x is a discrete random variable. c. The occurrences are random. b. There are n identical occurrences. d. The occurrences are independent.

19. The parameter(s) of the Poisson probability distribution is(are): a. n, x, and b. n and c. d.

and x

20. Which of the following is an example of a Poisson experiment? a. Tossing a coin 20 times and observing for a head or a tail b. Rolling a die 10 times and observing for a number c. Drawing without replacement three yellow marbles from a box that contains 7 blue, and 11 yellow marbles. d. Finding the probability that a salesperson who sells 2.5 mobile phones per day sells 5 today

Structured Questions BINOMIAL 1. For the binomial distribution with n = 10 and p = 0.3, find the probability of (a) Five or more successes. (b) At most two successes. (c) At least one success. 2. A university found that 20% of its students withdraw without completing the introductory statistics course. Assume that 20 students have registered for the course this term. a)What is the probability that exactly four will withdraw? [2] b) What is the probability that 2 or fewer will withdraw? [3] 3. In a recent survey, 70% of human resource directors thought that it was very important for business students to take a course in business ethics. For a random sample of 5 human resource directors, what is the probability that at least two of them does not think it very important for business students to take a business ethics course? [4] 4. A manufacturing process produces small bolts. 5 % of all bolts produced in this process are defective. What is the probability than in a sample of 40 randomly selected bolts, (i) exactly 5 will be defective? [4] (ii) at least 2 will be defective? [7] 5. When an assembly machine is properly calibrated approximately 5% of the finished products are defective. Periodically the quality control engineer randomly selects 20 products at random, and tests them. He will halt the production line to check (and reconfigure, if necessary) the calibration if any of the tested products are defective. Assuming that the machine is properly calibrated, what is the probability that production must be halted? POISSON 1. An average of 6 students arrives randomly and independently at COSTAATT between 7:00 am and 7:15 am every morning. What is the probability that, i. there are 2 arrivals in the 15-minute period? [2] ii. at most 2 arrivals arrive in the 15-minute period? [2] 2. TWA receives an average of 9.5 complaints per day from its passengers. (a) Find the probability that on a certain day TWA will receive exactly 6 complaints. (b) Find the probability that on a certain day TWA will receive at least 2 complaints.

[2] [6]

3. On average, the bank manager at Quest Bank Inc found that there are 12 customers entering the bank during the period 12:00 pm to 1:00pm. What is the probability that there are exactly 2 customers entering the bank between 12:00 pm and 12:30pm? 4. A Statistics lecturer claims that there is an average of 10 interruptions during his 3-hour lecture sessions. What is the probability that in the next such session there will be? (i) more than 3 interruptions [4] (ii) either 12 or 13 interruptions [4]

5. On average, 5 hurricanes hit the Caribbean region in a given hurricane season. Assume that these occurrences are independent of each another. Find the probability that in the next hurricane season exactly 4 hurricanes will hit the Caribbean region. (5)

MIXED 1. (a) Cyber Electronics, a company that makes DVD players, rates customer satisfaction as a top priority. They guarantee a refund or a replacement for any DVD player that malfunctions within two years from the date of purchase. It is known from past data that 5% of the DVD players malfunction within a two year period. The company mails a package of 20 randomly selected DVD players to their retail outlet. In that package of 20 DVD players, find the probability that (i) exactly 8 will need to be replaced within two years. [3] (ii) 8 or more will need to be replaced within two years. [5] (b) Customers arrive randomly at the retail outlet of Cyber Electronics at an average of 3.4 per minute. Calculate the probability that (i) no customers arrive in any particular minute, [2] (ii) exactly one customer arrives in any particular minute [2] (iii)two or more customers arrive in any particular minute [3]

2. . It is known that 80% of the walk in customers at a large post office are satisfied with the products and services. If a random sample of 20 customers is questioned about their walk in experience, what is the probability that (i) exactly 19 of them are satisfied customers. [5] (ii) fewer than 19 of them are satisfied customers. [4] (b) It has been found that the mean number of customer arrivals at a certain TTPOST line is 3.2 per hour. Find the probability that in any given hour there are fewer than 2 arrivals. [6]

3. (a) Suppose one in every four new clients approached by an insurance salesman purchases an insurance policy. If the salesman randomly approaches ten new clients: I. Find the probability that exactly two will buy a policy. II. Find the probability that at most two will buy a policy. [3] [4]

(b) On an average, six people per hour enter a furniture shop. Find the probability that in a half hour period: I. One person will enter the store [3] II. More than three people will enter the shop. [5]

4. (a) Consider that there is a 20% chance that a patient is allergic to aspirin. Assuming that the drug is administered to five patients, i) Find the probability that all five patients are allergic to the drug (4) ii) Find the probability that at least one of them is not allergic to the drug. (4) (b) A store manager has found that, on average, 8 customers enter a particular store in the hour before closing time. Find the probability that in the next hour before closing time no more than 2 customers enter the store. (5)