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STATEMENT ON VULNERABILITY OF VIRGINIA KEY TO EROSION AND INUNDATION Harold R. Wanless, Ph.D. Registered Florida Professional Geologist #985 Even if significant sea level rise were not forecast for this century, Virginia Key is a highly vulnerable barrier island which will be severely eroded, inundated, and the shore set back as the century progresses. With ten inches of sea level rise having occurred since 1930, with a current rate of sea level rise of greater than one foot per century, with sea level rise accelerating because of accelerating ice melt from glaciers and the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets (Blunden and Arndt, 2013), and with very significant and accelerating sea level rise projected in the coming decades and through the century and beyond (NOAA, 2012), it is ill-advised and dangerous to consider putting tax-payers money into maintaining and upgrading the Central Miami-Dade Water and Sewer treatment facility on Virginia Key. There are four reasons why Virginia Key is an un-necessarily risky place for a major water and sewage treatment plant now and will become totally lost as a coastal barrier island within 50 years: 1) severe depletion of sand resources to Virginia Key has left the island severely vulnerable; 2) most of remaining nearshore sand is isolated from the active shore-transport system; 3) an accelerating sea level rise that is projected to overwhelm the seaward side of Virginia Key within 32-53 years; and 4) an island topography configured to force accentuated storm surges through the M-DWASD Central Treatment facility. 1. Severe Depletion of Sand Resources To Virginia Key Severe mismanagement of the sand resources seaward of Virginia Key and Fisher Island over the past century has resulted in nearly complete erosion of the natural sand resources seaward of Virginia Key and Fisher Island and eliminated any natural source of sand to maintain the beach and barrier island of Virginia Key or to provide any natural beach replenishment relief during erosion. The construction of Government Cut in 1905, the progressive extension and hardening of the jetties, and the deepening of the channel has totally eliminated the southward transport of sand by long shore drift. Literature estimates for natural longshore drift of sand in the area suggest that 80,000 to 300,000 cubic yards of sand would naturally move south past a point each year. My measurements in monitoring the region are that the region south of Government Cut has been deprived of 80,000-100,000 cubic yards of sand per year because of the block by Government Cut. This is reflected in the severe to complete loss of sand offshore of Fisher Island and Virginia Key, except in depressions in the underlying limestone. Over the past century, this is 8,000,000 to 10,000,000 cubic yards of sand that has moved on south past the area and into Biscayne Bay through the tidal passes of Norris Cut and Bear Cut. This lost sand has not been and cannot be replaced by longshore drift from the north because of Government Cut.
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This has left the area seaward of Virginia Key totally sediment starved. The shallow sand platform seaward of Virginia Key used to have a broad, seagrass-stabilized shallow sand platform well seaward of the beach, shallow sand platform that extended seaward of an underlying limestone ridge, and active sand renourishment to the shore and the sand platform by littoral transport from the north. That ended with the construction of Government Cut and associated jetties. The beach has progressively eroded, the shallow sand platform deepened, and the sand resources disappeared as sand was shifted south and into the Norris Cut and Bear Cut inlets and not replaced. This severe sand starvation reality alone should be reason to be gravely concerned for the future of the MDWASD Central facility on Virginia Key. References: Blunden, J., and Arndt, D.S., Eds., 2013. State of the Climate in 2012. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, v.94, no.8, p. S1S238. NOAA, 2012. Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment. NOAA Technical Report OAR CPO-1. Climate Program Office, Silver Spring MD, 27p. (done cooperatively with United States Geological Survey, Department of Defense, Environmental Protection Agency, Department of Energy, and the US Army Corps of Engineers).

2. Most of Remaining Nearshore Sand Is Isolated From the Active Shore-transport System. The remaining sand on the deepening sand platform seaward of Fisher Island and Virginia Key is below the level of the seaward limestone ridge and is not playing a role in the sediment budget of the Fisher Island or Virginia Key beach system Illustrations by the author documenting the origin of these barrier islands and the severe sand starvation discussed in points #1 and #2 are shown in Figures 1-7. Research for Figures 4-6 were done as a student research project S. Oleck and H. Wanless in 1996.

FIGURE 1 . As sea level rose into Biscayne Bay (top), quartz-rich beach sands (yellow) flowed south along the seaward side of an emergent limestone ridge (the same ridge that forms the Florida Keys to the south). This ridge fades for a stretch in the vicinity of south Virginia Key and northern Key Biscayne Bay where the gap formed the geologic entrance to Biscayne Bay. This ridge positioned the sandy barrier islands of southeast Florida but was gradually submerged and covered with rising sea level (Bottom). Virginia Key lies west of the limestone ridge. Sand starvation and erosion south of Government Cut has re-exposed this southward deepening ridge (see Figure --). Yellow is quartz-rich beach sand. Orange is skeletal sand of the seaward shelf. Brown is mangrove peat.
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FIGURE 2. Sketch maps of the barrier islands of Miami-Dade County showing the natural nearshore and inlet sand transport (left) and modifications to the shore system that have modified the shore dynamics and beach stability.
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FIGURE 3. Map of historical changes in the southern Miami Beach to Virginia Key area. The hurricane of 1835 formed Norris Cut, separating Virginia Key from Miami Beach. Government Cut, formed in 1905 and quickly fortified with jetties to prevent sand infill resulted in the total block of southward sand transport since for the past 100 plus years. As a result Fisher Island and Virginia Key have seriously eroded. In addition Norris Cut has widened and deepened as sand has been swept into Biscayne Bay. A beach renourishment project in 1973 together with the emplacement of granite groins attempted to offset this erosion as have subsequent sand and engineering projects. Sand from the major sand renourishment project on Miami Beach in the late 1970s to early 1980s has not reached south because of the complete block to natural southwards transport by the jetties of Government Cut. 5

FIGURE 4. Maps showing the shoreline and offshore depth contours in 1852 and 1919 based on surveys by the US Coast and Geodetic Survey. The light blue offshore is all shallow beach quality sand, the ebb-tidal delta of Bear Cut and Norris Cut. Note the significant shore erosion by 1919 following the construction of Government Cut and the initial jetties to block sand infilling and inadvertently blocking any southward transport of sand.

FIGURE 5. Maps showing the shoreline and offshore depth contours in 1960 and 1996 based on a University of Florida survey and a survey by the author respectively. In the 1960 survey the littoral platform is deepening and the Virginia Key shore has eroded. In the 1996 survey, the shallow sand platform has significantly deepened through sand being eroded and transported southward and into the inlets (Bear Cut and Norris Cut) but no sand coming in from the north. In the 1996 study we hand probed with a metal rod to determine the thickness of loose sand over limestone bedrock. The results from Transects #2, #3, and #4 which intersect Virginia Key are shown and discussed in Figure 6.

FIGURE 6. Cross-sectional profiles of the shallow platform seaward of Virginia Key showing the bottom depth profiles from the 1852, 1919, 1960 and 1996 surveys. Location of these Profiles #2, #3, and #4 are shown in the 1996 map in Figure 5. Based on probing with a metal rod in the 1996 survey, the depth of the underlying limestone rock and thickness of the loose sand in 1996 was determined. The remaining sand as of 1996 is shown in yellow and the underlying limestone is brown. This shallowly submerged limestone ridge is the same ridge that forms the Florida Keys. In this area, the limestone ridge served to position the sandy barrier islands of Miami Beach, Virginia Key and Key Biscayne. Historically sand moved southward by longshore transport along the seaward (eastern) margin of the ridge and capped the ridge. As sand supply was cut off by the Government Cut jetties, sand continued to move southward and into inlets but was not replaced by the natural sand transport from the north. As a result there is little or no sand on the seaward flank of the limestone ridge or capping it. This historical change in the profiles is the result of that sand starvation. Importantly, remaining sand west (left) of the ridge is below the level of the ridge and not and active part of the sand transport in the system.
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FIGURE 7. An underwater LiDAR image of area seaward of south Miami Beach, Government Cut, Fisher Island, Virginia Key and northern Key Biscayne showing the geomorphic features on the sea floor. The shallow sand platform seaward of Virginia Key and northern Key Biscayne is an ebb-tidal delta of Bear Cut and Norris Cut smoothed off by wave energy from the seaward (east, right). Since construction of Government Cut in 1905, the southward longshore drift of sand out of the area and the block of new sand into the area by Government Cut has resulted in deepening of the sand platform seaward of Fisher Island and Virginia Key, significant erosion of the ocean beach, and removal of sand from the seaward side of the limestone ridge. The sand remaining west of the ridge is basically hiding behind the ridge and not playing any role in the sediment budget (see Figure 6).
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3. An Accelerating Sea Level Rise Projected to Inundate Virginia Key by the Middle of the Century. By 2063, there is projected to be a further sea level rise of 55 to 92 cm (1.8-3.1 feet) according to the most recent NOAA projections (Figure 8 and Table 1). With a further 1.5-2 feet of sea level rise there will be no natural Virginia Key left. This will happen within the next 32-53 years. Winter storms and hurricanes will have eliminated all of the low beach sand, low barrier island sand and low mangrove from the seaward side of the M-DWASD facility on Virginia Key. At these higher sea levels, storms and stronger tides will have moved this eroded sediment of the sediment starved barrier island into Biscayne Bay through Norris Cut to the north and Bear Cut to the south. Stronger tides will occur because of increased tidal prism (enlarged area within Biscayne Bay to be fed by flooding tides) because of inundation of low-lying areas within the Bay. This will basically leave The M-DWASD Central facility on Virginia Key exposed to the open ocean and with higher land elevations to the north and south (the dredge-spoil fill area to the north and the old un-lined dump to the south). A further 1.5 feet of sea level rise is forecast to occur within 32-44 years; a 2 foot rise by 2050 to 2066 (Figure 8 and Table 1). These are simply imminent and must be considered thoroughly when planning for the future of the M-DWASD Central facility on Virginia Key. As the system is sediment starved, loss of the island must be considered a certainty early in future sea level rise. Importantly, sea level rise will continue to accelerate through this century and beyond. Accumulated ocean heat and accelerating ice melt makes that very certain. Planning must not assume that sea level will become stable after some small amount of rise. All U.S. government and U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections forecast continued sea level rise acceleration. Influence of sea level rise on the M-DWASD Central facility has been discussed in more detail in a previous statement affidavit by the author and maps provided showing conditions with different sea level rise elevations. 4. An Island Topography Configured To Accentuate Storm Surges to Central Treatment Facility. Storm surges will be exceptionally high across the M-DWASD Central facility on Virginia Key because of the high elevation areas to the north and south. As shown in Figure 7, the MDWASD Central facility is bordered by an old dump with elevation of 25 feet just to the south and an area of high elevation fill to the north (spoil from a deepening of Government Cut channel). These high areas will serve to force exceptionally strong and high storm surge waters into and across the lower elevation areas between them (as has been observed by the author between condominiums in Hurricane Andrew and other storms). In other words, major storm flooding events will treat the M-DWASD Central facility on Virginia Key as a sluiceway. With rising sea levels this will only be exacerbated.

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FIGURE 8. Graph of the sea level projections published by NOAA in December 2012 with added decadal time lines an10 centimeter elevations lines above the 1992 zero elevation shown. The year 2063, 50 years from now, is also shown. Elevations are in centimeters on the left of the diagram and in feet on the right. Only the Intermediate High and Highest projections are meaningful. The Low projection is the historical rate (20 cm/century) projected into the future. Sea level is already rising more than 50% faster than that. The Intermediate Low projection assumes no melt from the Ice Sheets of Greenland and Antarctica during the century. Greenland and Antarctica are already providing a significant component to sea level rise and are accelerating. Intermediate High projection assumes limited contribution of ice melt to sea level rise. The Highest projection assumes the present highest anticipated contribution of ice melt to sea level rise. Table 1 below summarizes the timing projected one-foot to six-foot rise benchmarks for the Intermediate High and Highest projections. Reference is: NOAA, 2012. Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment. NOAA Technical Report OAR CPO-1. Climate Program Office, Silver Spring MD, 27p. (done cooperatively with United States Geological Survey, Department of Defense, Environmental Protection Agency, Department of Energy, and the US Army Corps of Engineers).
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TABLE 1. Global Sea Level Rise Projections from NOAA (2012) +1 ft Intermediate High High 2042 2030 +2 ft 2067 2050 +3 ft 2084 2063 +4 ft 2100 2074 +5 ft 2112 2084 +6 ft 2121 2093

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SUMMARY There is no evidence that there are any plans or financing for meaningfully protecting or elevating the M-DWASD Central facility on Virginia Key against erosion from extreme sand starvation, against major hurricane surges, or against the rising sea levels forecast during this century. In fact there is no evidence provided that such protection is economically feasible. This area is simply too vulnerable and too at risk, both now and even more so in the near future, to spend taxpayers and citizens money on maintaining or upgrading the M-DWASD Central facility on Virginia Key. In addition, such a vulnerable facility will be at increasing risk for resulting in a source for a major pollution release. Respectfully submitted,

Harold R. Wanless, Ph.D. Registered Florida Professional Geologist #985 1231 Genoa St., Coral Gables, FL 33134

August 8, 2013

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