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August 8, 2013
NCC
Performance Highlights
Quarterly Highlights Standalone
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales Operating profit Net profit 1QFY14 1,379 108 11 1QFY13 1,472 117 17 4QFY13 1,741 157 27 % chg (yoy) (6.3) (7.2) (36.6) % chg (qoq) (20.8) (31.0) (61.3)
BUY
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Infrastructure 488 2,455 2.0 61/18 217,789 2 18,665 5,519 NGCN.BO NJCC@IN
`19 `27
12 Months
NCC posted a poor set of numbers for 1QFY2014, below our and street expectations. The poor performance in slow execution and lower profitability was primarily due to slower order inflows and higher interest expense during the quarter. The current outstanding order book of NCC stands at `18,098cr
(3.2x trailing revenues) as of 1QFY2014, indicating a decline of 12% yoy. Higher interest cost dents profitability: On the top-line front, NCC reported a decline of 6.3% yoy to `1,379cr, which was significantly lower than our estimate of `1,511cr. This is mainly due to (a) slower-than-expected execution in some projects and (b) a depleting order book. On the EBITDAM front, the companys
EBITDA margins stood at 7.9% (down 116bp sequentially) and was slightly below our estimate of 8.0%. Interest cost came in at `97cr a growth of 4.3% yoy. At the bottom-line level, NCC reported a PAT of `11cr (our estimate was of `18cr) in 1QFY2014, indicating a decline of 36.6% yoy. This was mainly due to lower-than-expected revenue performance, higher tax rate (39%) and high interest cost for the quarter.
Outlook and valuation: During the quarter, NCC has increased its debt by `350cr to `2,576cr. However the company is in process of reducing its debt through stake sale in two of its road BOT projects (Western UP tollways and Bangalore Elavated expressway), continued monetization of its land bank and completion of stake sale in the Himachal Sorang project (within nine to ten months). The company has already signed a term sheet with an investor for one of its road BOT project (Western UP tollways). The stock currently trades at a PE of 7.7x and 7.2x (including subsidiaries valuation) our FY2014 and FY2015 EPS estimates. Further, on account of the stake sale initiated by the company in some of its projects and decline in its stock price, we continue to maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `27.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 20.3 9.0 38.2 32.6
3m (6.2)
1yr 6.0
(43.2) (52.8)
Viral Shah
022-39357800 Ext: 6842 viralk.shah@angelbroking.com
1QFY13 1472 1355 117 7.9 93 22.5 23.5 0 25 7.9 17 1.1 0.6
% Chg (yoy) (6.3) (6.2) (7.2) (7)bp 4.3 (0.3) 21.5 0 (29.7) (15.3) (36.6) (37)bp (36.6)
% Chg (qoq) (20.8) (19.8) (31.0) (116)bp (14.1) (2.3) (1.2) 0 (65.3) (70.1) (61.3) (80)bp (61.3)
FY2013 5725 5254 471 8.2 407 92 126 0 98 35.1 63 1.1 2.4
FY2012 5250 4851 399 7.6 384 83 121 0 53 16.9 36 0.7 1.4
% Chg 9.0 8.3 18.0 62bp 6.0 10.9 4.4 85.5 107.0 75.4 41bp 75.4
August 8, 2013
(14.5)
Projects update
Pondicherry-Tindivanam: Toll collection for the project stood at `3.5lakhs/day, much lower than the breakeven level of `7-8lakhs/day. However, the company believes that toll revenue will pick up going ahead.
Western UP: Due to recent floods in Uttarakhand and Haridwar, toll collection has declined by `5lakh/day to `22lakh/day. Going ahead, the Management expects toll collection to increase to `27lakh/day.
Bangalore Elevated Toll Way (BETL): During the quarter, the toll collection was flat at `25lakh/day. Himachal Sorang: As per the Management, the company has completed negotiation with investors for full stake sale in the Himachal Sorang project. The Management expects the deal to be completed within a period of 9-10 months. Further, the company is also in talks with some regulatory authorities for signing short term power purchase agreements (PPA) and expects the projects to achieve commercial operation date (COD) by September 2013. Nelcast Power Project (1,320MW): The construction activity for the 1,320MW
(660MW x 2) Krishnapatnam power project is going as per schedule and the company has already placed orders for BTG. However, the company has not signed any power purchase agreement (PPA) till date and is hopeful of tying up for one within the next few quarters. Further, as per the Management, the company is in talks with some strategic investors for part/full stake sale in the power project.
August 8, 2013
3%
31%
Buildings, Roads & Oil & Gas Water, Env. & Railways
15% 5% 9%
Change in estimates
Due to slower execution and depleting order book in 1QFY2014, we have revised our estimates for FY2014 and FY2015.
Exhibit 8: Change in estimates to factor in lower top-line growth and higher interest cost
Earlier estimates 6,167 8.0 69 FY2014E Revised estimates 6,044 8.0 62 Variation (%) (2.0) 0.3 (9.8) Earlier estimates 6,945 8.2 93 FY2015E Revised estimates 6,533 8.0 68 Variation (%) (5.9) (2.1) (27.5)
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37 55 52 16 16 175
NPV at CoE of 16% NPV at CoE of 16% NPV at CoE of 16% NPV at CoE of 16% NPV at CoE of 16%
PPA / Merchant
P/BV multiple of 0.5x on FY13 end investment No value ascribed on account of uncertainty relating to Dubai Harmony project
August 8, 2013
- Neutral
13,415 12,946 14,897 60,873 68,946 78,040 5,725 1,811 5,897 2,040 6,044 2,462 6,308 2,146 6,533 2,731 7,033 2,339
781 1,044
Company background
NCC, having started off as a building/industrial construction company, has emerged as an EPC contractor with a diversified product portfolio. NCCs presence across all the key infrastructure verticals: 1) roads; 2) buildings; 3) water; 4) irrigation; 5) electrical; 6) power; 7) oil and gas; and 8) metals endows it with a relatively de-risked business model. NCC has also ventured in international geographies such as Oman and UAE, which further diversifies its business.
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Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) Wcap cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage 0.6 2.8 2.2 1.0 4.9 1.6 0.9 5.4 0.8 0.8 4.2 0.9 0.9 4.4 0.9 0.9 4.5 0.9 6.9 57 89 141 139 6.0 59 99 145 177 5.4 74 96 200 190 5.4 85 78 248 162 5.1 89 71 237 155 4.8 87 69 230 153 12.8 13.6 9.3 9.6 10.1 7.1 6.6 6.8 1.5 8.2 8.4 2.6 8.2 8.4 2.5 8.3 8.5 2.6 9.0 65.9 1.5 8.9 9.3 0.6 8.6 8.2 61.5 1.2 6.1 7.9 0.8 4.7 6.0 68.0 1.1 4.6 11.1 0.9 (1.5) 6.7 64.1 1.2 5.4 12.2 0.9 (0.4) 6.4 66.0 1.3 5.5 12.9 0.8 (0.6) 6.3 66.0 1.3 5.6 12.7 0.9 (0.7) 9.5 9.5 10.0 1.3 87.5 6.4 6.4 9.0 1.0 92.7 1.4 1.4 4.6 0.3 94.0 2.4 2.4 6.0 0.3 96.2 2.4 2.4 6.4 0.3 98.2 2.6 2.6 7.1 0.3 100.4 2.0 1.9 0.2 7.0 0.4 3.7 0.5 2.9 2.1 0.2 5.4 0.6 5.8 0.6 13.3 4.0 0.2 1.6 0.5 6.6 0.6 7.6 3.1 0.2 1.6 0.4 5.2 0.5 7.7 2.9 0.2 1.6 0.4 5.4 0.5 7.2 2.6 0.2 1.6 0.4 5.4 0.6 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E
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E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
NCC No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns):
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