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August 6, 2013
Syndicate Bank
Performance Highlights
Particulars (` cr) NII Pre-prov. profit PAT 1QFY14 1,337 949 452 4QFY13 1,344 901 592 % chg (qoq) (0.5) 5.3 (23.6) 1QFY13 1,319 841 440 % chg (yoy) 1.4 12.8 2.7
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code BANKS 4,488 1.4 145/71 142,189 10 18,733 5,542 SBNK.BO SNDB@IN
`75 -
For 1QFY2014, Syndicate Bank reported a weak operating performance, as the NII remained largely flat. The Non-interest income grew at a healthy pace of 25.0% yoy. The bank witnessed asset quality pressures during the quarter, as Gross NPA levels increased sequentially by 19.3% (on a relatively low base); a 4.6% yoy decline in provisioning, resulted in a higher 56.4% sequential increase in Net NPA levels. At the PBT level, earnings grew by 40.0% yoy, however, as the bank had a negative tax rate of 34.1% for 1QFY2013 as compared to positive tax rate of 1.5% for the quarter under review, the growth in bottom-line came in muted at 2.7% yoy. NIM declines qoq; Slippages higher sequentially: During 1QFY2014, the bank witnessed a healthy growth in its business, as advances grew by 15.6% yoy, while the growth in deposits came in at 16.0% yoy. Despite the 37.9% yoy growth witnessed in current deposits, the growth in CASA deposits remained healthy at 15.5% yoy, due to moderate growth of 9.0% yoy in saving deposits. CASA ratio for the bank remained stable at 28.0%. During the quarter, the bank witnessed a 33bp sequential decline in its yield on advances to 9.7%, hence the NIM for the bank declined by 14bp qoq to 2.8%. During 1QFY2014, the non-interest income (excluding treasury) for the bank de-grew by 1.4% yoy to `210cr, largely due to 9.3% yoy de-growth in fee income to `107cr. On the asset quality front, slippages came in higher at `1,344cr (annualized slippage ratio of 3.6%) as compared to average quarterly run rate of around `890cr for the last four quarters. Due to higher slippages, Gross NPA levels, on an absolute basis, increased by 19.3% qoq, while Net NPA levels increased sequentially by 56.4%, due to decline in PCR by 666bp qoq to 76.8%. Gross and net NPA ratios increased sequentially by 39bp and 43bp respectively to 2.4% and 1.2%. During the quarter, the bank restructured advances worth ~`883cr during the quarter, thereby taking its outstanding restructured book to `9,657cr. As per the Management, no major advances are in the restructuring pipeline. Outlook and valuation: Though, the bank has a modest CASA and fee income franchise, with a CASA ratio of 28.0% as of 1QFY2014 and fee income at 0.5% of average assets as of FY2013, it has relatively comfortable asset quality outlook as compared to peers owing to its diversified loan book. But, in any case, we believe that the asset quality pressures for the banking sector are unlikely to abate as quickly as was expected earlier, as we take into account recent macro developments amidst an overall weak macro environment. Hence, we remain Neutral on the stock. Key financials (Standalone)
Y/E March (` cr) NII % chg Net profit % chg NIM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%) FY2012 5,085 16.0 1,313 25.3 3.1 21.8 3.4 0.6 0.8 17.9 FY2013 5,454 7.3 2,004 52.6 2.8 33.3 2.2 0.5 1.0 22.8 FY2014E 5,539 1.6 1,262 (37.0) 2.5 21.0 3.6 0.4 0.6 12.5 FY2015E 6,185 11.7 1,415 12.2 2.5 23.5 3.2 0.4 0.6 12.8
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 66.2 15.3 6.6 11.9
3m (4.8)
1yr 7.6
(42.5) (22.9)
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
Sourabh Taparia
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6872 sourabh.taparia@angelbroking.com
Harshal Patkar
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 harshal.patkar@angelbroking.com
1QFY14 4,432 3,480 863 75 14 3,094 1,337 295 210 107 85 27 76 1,632 683 439 244 949 489 171 59 259 459 7 452 1.5
4QFY13 4,381 3,465 831 85 3,037 1,344 399 357 172 42 19 166 1,744 843 579 264 901 364 160 (14) 218 537 (55) 592 (10.2)
% chg (qoq) 1.1 0.4 3.9 (12.6) NA 1.9 (0.5) (26.2) (41.4) (37.8) 102.4 42.1 (54.6) (6.4) (18.9) (24.1) (7.5) 5.3 34.5 6.9 (521.4) 19.0 (14.5) (112.9) (23.6) 1178bp
1QFY13 4,243 3,324 807 62 50 2,923 1,319 236 213 118 23 13 82 1,555 714 485 229 841 513 264 (6) 255 328 (112) 440 (34.1)
% chg (yoy) 4.5 4.7 6.9 20.8 (72.0) 5.8 1.4 25.0 (1.4) (9.3) 269.6 107.7 (7.4) 5.0 (4.3) (9.4) 6.7 12.8 (4.6) (35.2) (1,045.5) 1.5 40.0 (106.3) 2.7 3567bp
FY2013 17,121 13,524 3,231 287 78 11,667 5,454 1,174 1,049 453 125 150 446 6,628 3,179 2,179 1,000 3,450 1,886 1,110 (18) 795 1,563 (441) 2,004 (28.2)
FY2012 15,268 12,371 2,736 151 10 10,183 5,085 1,076 987 466 88 9 513 6,161 2,814 1,892 923 3,347 1,919 1,415 38 467 1,427 114 1,313
% chg 12.1 9.3 18.1 90.4 653.3 14.6 7.3 9.2 6.3 (2.8) 41.4 1,566.7 (12.9) 7.6 13.0 15.2 8.3 3.1 (1.7) (21.6) (148.2) 70.2 9.5 (487.1) 52.6
8.0 (3619)bp
% chg (3.0) 5.1 (1.6) (16.2) 12.5 63.4 (15.5) (92.7) 1.4
August 6, 2013
1QFY14 149,383 182,513 81.8 13,774 37,370 51,144 28.0 11.9 8.5 6.6 9.71 2.83 41.9 3,554 2.4 1,759 1.2 76.8 3.6 0.3
4QFY13 147,569 185,356 79.6 13,937 38,017 51,954 28.0 12.6 9.0 6.6 10.0 2.97 48.3 2,979 2.0 1,125 0.8 83.4 2.0 0.3
% chg (qoq) 1.2 (1.5) 223bp (1.2) (1.7) (1.6) (1)bp (66)bp (50)bp 3bp (33)bp (14)bp (645)bp 19.3 39bp 56.4 43bp (666)bp 162bp 1bp
1QFY13 129,171 157,276 82.1 9,987 34,275 44,262 28.1 11.7 8.6 7.1 10.7 3.2 45.9 3,077 2.4 1,185 0.9 80.7 3.4 0.6
% chg (yoy) 15.6 16.0 (28)bp 37.9 9.0 15.5 (12)bp 21bp (17)bp (49)bp (102)bp (36)bp (403)bp 15.5 0bp 48.5 26bp (396)bp 22bp (26)bp
August 6, 2013
CASA ratio
22.5
15.0
7.1
28.1
7.5
29.5 28.0 28.0
16.8 18.4
12.7 10.5
17.3 14.6
19.4 17.4
15.6 16.0
5.0 -
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
10.73
3.19 3.00
3.29 2.97
2.83
2.50
August 6, 2013
During the quarter, the bank restructured advances worth ~`883cr, thereby taking its outstanding restructured book to `9,657cr. As per the Management, no major advances are in the restructuring pipeline.
3.4
3.3
2.9 2.0
82.3
1.5
2.4 0.9
2.5 0.9
2.3 0.9
2.0 0.8
2.4 1.2
50.0
0.5
2,707
2,738
2,761
2,934
3,004
45.9
49.2
48.2
48.3
30.0
Source: Company, Angel Research
August 6, 2013
41.9
Investment arguments
Relatively better asset quality; moderate NIM to aid profitability
Slippages, after tapering off slightly in the 4QFY2013, have again spiked in 1QFY2014. We believe asset-quality pressures are likely to be well within manageable limits for the bank, as evident from the comfortable provisioning coverage for the bank at 76.8% as of 1QFY2014. The banks conservative lending, visible in its low yield on advances (reported at 10.5% in FY2013 and 9.6% in 1QFY2014), and moderate advances growth (16.3% CAGR over FY201013), are expected to lead to a relatively better asset quality than peer banks. We expect slippages to be at 2.8% in FY2014 and 2.3% in FY2015. Even though slippages and NPA ratios have increased, the bank lies in the better spectrum of PSU banks specifically in terms of asset quality.
Earlier estimates FY2014 15.0 15.0 26.8 2.6 8.5 10.0 7.5 2.4 77.5 FY2015 15.0 15.0 26.3 2.6 13.2 10.0 7.5 2.3 75.0
Revised estimates FY2014 13.0 11.0 27.8 2.5 2.3 (2.5) 7.5 2.8 75.0 FY2015 15.0 15.0 27.2 2.5 10.4 7.5 7.5 2.3 75.0
August 6, 2013
Earlier estimates 5,851 1,274 7,125 3,472 3,653 1,426 2,228 579 1,648
FY2013 Revised estimates 5,539 1,201 6,740 3,199 3,541 1,902 1,639 377 1,262
Var. (%) (5.3) (5.7) (5.4) (7.8) (3.1) 33.4 (26.4) (34.9) (23.5)
Earlier estimates 6,746 1,442 8,188 3,792 4,396 1,855 2,541 864 1,677
FY2014 Revised estimates 6,185 1,327 7,512 3,439 4,072 1,928 2,144 729 1,415
Var. (%) (8.3) (8.0) (8.3) (9.3) (7.4) 3.9 (15.6) (15.6) (15.6)
Price (`)
0.5x
0.7x
0.9x
1.1x
1.3x
August 6, 2013
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), # Without adjusting for SASF
Company Background
Syndicate Bank is a south-based mid-sized PSU bank, with an asset base in excess of `2.1lakh cr. The bank has 3,000+ branches, with a more spread out network than other regional banks, having 57% branches in Rural and Semi-Urban areas. The bank also has a reasonable presence overseas, which accounts for ~13% of its total advances.
August 6, 2013
August 6, 2013
Ratio analysis
Y/E March Profitability ratios (%) NIMs Cost to Income Ratio RoA RoE B/S ratios (%) CASA Ratio Credit/Deposit Ratio CAR - Tier I Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs Net NPAs Slippages Loan Loss Prov. /Avg. Assets Provision Coverage Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS (75% cover.) DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) P/ABVPS (x) Dividend Yield DuPont Analysis NII (-) Prov. Exp. Adj. NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc. Other Inc. Op. Inc. Opex PBT Taxes RoA Leverage RoE 2.0 0.5 1.5 0.3 1.8 0.6 2.4 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.6 27.4 16.6 3.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 0.6 2.6 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.7 24.9 17.6 3.0 1.2 1.8 0.1 1.9 0.6 2.5 1.7 0.8 0.0 0.8 23.1 17.9 2.7 0.9 1.8 0.1 1.9 0.5 2.4 1.6 0.8 (0.2) 1.0 22.6 22.8 2.4 0.8 1.6 0.0 1.6 0.5 2.1 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.6 22.5 12.5 2.4 0.8 1.7 0.0 1.7 0.5 2.2 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.6 23.0 12.8 4.8 0.8 4.0 4.1 0.6 5.0 3.4 0.6 5.1 2.2 0.5 9.0 3.6 0.4 5.4 3.2 0.4 6.0 15.6 98.9 3.0 18.3 116.1 3.7 21.8 133.5 3.8 33.3 158.9 6.7 21.0 175.2 4.0 23.5 193.4 4.5 2.2 1.1 1.8 0.4 73.3 2.4 1.0 1.7 0.6 77.2 2.5 1.0 2.9 0.8 80.1 2.0 0.8 1.7 0.6 83.4 3.2 1.4 2.8 0.6 75.0 3.9 1.5 2.3 0.6 75.0 31.2 77.3 12.7 8.2 30.9 78.8 13.0 9.3 29.5 78.3 12.2 8.9 28.0 79.6 12.6 9.0 27.8 81.0 12.1 8.9 27.2 81.0 11.4 8.5 2.1 52.0 0.6 16.6 3.0 48.1 0.7 17.6 3.1 45.7 0.8 17.9 2.8 48.0 1.0 22.8 2.5 47.5 0.6 12.5 2.5 45.8 0.6 12.8 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E
August 6, 2013
10
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Syndicate Bank No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
August 6, 2013
11