Mid Term exam, Spring 2011 Level: Masters Year: Fall 2010 Program: EMBA Full Marks: 100

Course: Data Analysis and Modeling I Time: 4 Hrs. __________________________________________________________________________ _ Candidates are required to give their answers in their own words as far as practicable. The figures in the margin indicate full marks. (5+6+9) 1. a. As per the government regulation, the LPG gas cylinder should weigh a standard 14 Kgs. The consumer forum representative randomly selected 20 gas cylinders from the retailers stocked to sell to the consumers. The data recorded are as follows: 13.5, 14.2, 12.8, 12.6, 14.5, 13.7, 13, 14, 11.8, 12.7, 12.6, 13.9, 13, 14.1 13.8, 14, 14.1, 12.9, 14, 13.4

If the sample is typical of all LGP gas cylinders being sold, what is the range of weights in 95.5% of the packages (consider the distribution is bell shaped)? 1b. The following is the frequency distribution of monthly two way transportation expenses of 250 employees of an organization in order to attain their office. 10001500 20 15002000 25 20002500 34 25003000 53 30003500 45 35004000 30 40004500 28

Two way 0-1000 Transportatio n expenses No. of 15 Employees

Explain the characteristics of transportation expenses of the employees using Box Whisker diagram. 1.c. The following frequency table gives revenue earned by Mero-digi, a DTH service provider from operation of high definition digital broadcasting over 5 years of period expressed in number of Months. 12-14 5 14-16 6 16-18 10 18-20 13 20-22 9 22-24 8 24-26 4 26-28 2

Revenue Earned 10-12 (,00,000 Rupees) Number of Months 3

There is another DTH service provider in the region who claims to have average monthly revenue from HD digital broadcasting as 29,00,000 with a standard deviation of 5,00,000. Compare the HD digital broadcasting operation based on revenue earned by the two companies in terms of and identify which of the company is doing well in terms of average revenue generated and consistency of the revenue generation. Mid-Term exam Spring 2011 EMBA

2. a.

(6+8) Star housing is a 1600 flat housing company which claims 24 hours of water supply to all of its flats. The inspector of maintenance department has the task of comparing the reliability of two pumping stations built in order to maintain the water levels in the service tanks. Each station is susceptible to two kinds of failures: pump failure and leakage. When either (or both) occurs, the station must be shut down. The data at hand indicate that the following probabilities prevail: Station 1. 2. P(Pump Failure) 0.07 0.09 P(leakage) 0.10 0.12 P(Both) 0 0.06

Which station has the higher probability of being shut down? 2b. Out of a college of 500 students, 100 live in college hostel while the remainders live outside the college premises. Of those living in college hostels, 30 are from upper income group, 50 are from middle income group and 20 are from lower income group. Of those living outside the college, 100 are from upper income group, 250 are from middle income group and 50 are from lower income group. Set up a cross-classification table for type of students living and their family income status, to find the probability that a person chosen at random: is from middle income group lives in a hostel and is from upper income group is middle income; if it is known-that he lives outside college hostel. lives outside college hostel or from lower income group. (8+8) Snacks food division of a popular food company produces sweet popcorn in 30 gram packets from its three plants with daily production volumes of 1500, 3000 and 4000 cartons respectively. According to past experience, it is known that the fraction of leaking packets produced by the three plants, are respectively 0.005, 0.008 and 0.010. If a packet of sweet popcorn is selected at random from a days total production and found to be leaking, from which plant does that packet most likely to come? A restaurant operated in a holiday resort sells Ice Tea as its popular product. If the summer is mild, he can sell 2000 cups of ice tea: if it is hot he can sell 3500 cups: if it is very hot he can sell 4500 cups. It is known that for any year the probability of summer to be mild is 0.22 and to be hot is 0.44. Cost of a cup of ice tea is Rs. 15 and sold for Rs. 25. i. What is his expected profit and variance of profit of ice tea? ii. The company also sells ice-cream and the expected profit and standard deviation of profit of the ice cream is 39000 and 12000 respectively. Compare the portfolio of Ice tea and ice cream for the restaurant using CV. (6+6) Pharmaceutical employees working in manufacturing process are subject to strong chemicals during medicine manufacturing process and research shows that incidence of i. ii. iii. iv.

3.a

3b.

4a.

Mid-Term exam Spring 2011 EMBA

occupational disease in such industry is such that the workers have 20% chance of suffering from it. What is the probability that out of eight workers chosen randomly, i. Six or more will suffer from disease? ii. One worker will suffer from disease? 4b. DFDQC is the sole authority of Nepal for the quality of food products being sold in the Nepalese market. DFDQC looks after various kinds of food related issues, but most of them are related the shelf life. In fact, 97% of the issues handled by DFDQC are of shelf life related factors: i. ii. 5a. What is the probability that, out of 80 issues DFDQC, exactly six are of nonshelf life related? At-least two of them are of non shelf life related?

(6+6) The average price of 1000 sq feet flat in Kathmandu is during 2010 has been estimated to be Rs. 50,00,000. Assuming a normal distribution and a standard deviation of Rs. 10,00,000. Find a value of the flat price such that 90% of the flat in Kathmandu will have less than this amount. An biscuit manufacturing company is trying to promote its new brand and for that, it is keeping surprise gifts in 50% of its packets. If a random sample of 400 packets are selected, what is the probability that i. ii. Between 200 and 215 packets will have surprise gift? At least 175 packets will have surprise gift?

5b.

6a.

(6+9) Digital Center, a newly opened super quality digital electronics shop in Kathmandu is trying to quantify the variation in weekly demand of high quality notebook computers. The shop manager believes that the weekly demand is normally distributed. He knows that on average 100 high quality notebooks are purchased monthly and that 90% of the time, the monthly demand is below 110 units. I. II. What is the standard deviation of this distribution? The manager wants to stock enough high quality notebooks each month so that the probability of running out of the notebooks is no higher than 0.05. What is the lowest stock level of the notebooks?

6 b. Write short Note on: a. Population and Sample b. Parameter and Statistic. c. Stratified Sampling technique (6+5) 7.a.
The Kathmandu Cable Television Authority (KCTA) conducted a test to determine the amount of time people spend watching television per week. The KCTA surveyed 84 subscribers and found

Mid-Term exam Spring 2011 EMBA

the average number of hours watched per week to be 11.6 hours and the standard deviation to be 1.8 hours. i. Calculate the standard error of mean. ii. Construct 98 percent confidence interval estimate for the entire population of Kathmandu watching television per week.

7b.

For a test market, find the sample size needed to estimate the true proportion of consumers satisfied with a certain new product within 0.04 at the 90% confidence level. Assume that you have no strong feeling about what he proportion is. All the best!

Mid-Term exam Spring 2011 EMBA