U.S.

- Manufacturing Production 2014 Outlook

by Eduardo Petazze
With published data until Dec13 the following projections are our best estimate of manufacturing activity in the United States for the year 2014 (all indicators non-seasonal adjustment).
By 2014 an estimated growth of manufacturing output around 3% (indicator of the Fed gets the level of 100 points, base year 2007), with modest growth of employed persons (+0.5%),
similar the year 2013.

GMF
GMF
GMF
GMF
GMF
GMF
GMF

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

Jan
125.29
128.69
127.33
124.34
122.09
123.44
125.55
126.60

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

2007=100
GMF 2007
GMF 2008
GMF 2009
GMF 2010
GMF 2011
GMF 2012
GMF 2013
GMF 2014
2013 Y/Y
2014 Y/Y

Year
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2013 Y/Y
2014 Y/Y

Year
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Y/Y

Jan
76.25
76.16
64.17
66.77
72.10
74.43
75.23
76.77

Jan
95.53
98.01
81.71
83.02
88.03
91.87
94.45
97.19
2.80%
2.90%

Jan
13,898
13,619
12,450
11,357
11,524
11,735
11,860
11,922
1.07%
0.52%

Jan
145,487
138,954
152,376
136,796
130,916
127,729
125,570
122,672
-2.31%

Feb
125.61
128.75
127.10
124.09
122.06
123.62
125.72
126.77

Feb
77.45
76.49
64.92
67.68
72.76
75.73
76.20
77.68

Feb
97.29
98.49
82.52
83.98
88.81
93.62
95.79
98.47
2.32%
2.80%

Feb
13,886
13,578
12,266
11,340
11,542
11,751
11,879
11,924
1.09%
0.38%

Feb
142,730
137,867
148,650
135,029
129,964
125,523
124,009
121,086
-2.36%

Mar
125.95
128.77
126.86
123.83
122.07
123.81
125.89
126.94

Apr
126.31
128.73
126.62
123.58
122.10
123.98
126.07
127.11

Mar
79.52
77.56
65.07
70.23
74.97
76.87
77.25
79.07

Mar
100.15
99.87
82.55
86.97
91.51
95.17
97.26
100.37
2.19%
3.20%

Mar
13,887
13,559
12,112
11,367
11,588
11,822
11,912
11,961
0.76%
0.41%

Manufacturing (NAICS) Total Capacity Index

May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
126.66
127.02
127.36
127.67
127.96
128.67
128.57
128.44
128.30
128.14
126.37
126.12
125.87
125.62
125.37
123.34
123.11
122.89
122.69
122.51
122.17
122.28
122.40
122.55
122.71
124.16
124.33
124.50
124.67
124.85
126.25
126.43
126.61
126.79
126.98
127.29
127.48
127.66
127.85
128.05

Oct
128.21
127.96
125.11
122.36
122.89
125.02
127.17
128.24

Manufacturing (NAICS) - Capacity Utilization Rate, NSA (%)

Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
78.81
79.31
81.04
77.01
79.57
80.30
76.71
76.41
77.74
73.77
75.19
73.21
63.72
64.01
65.16
63.82
66.40
67.08
70.33
71.82
73.44
70.82
73.46
73.84
73.55
74.06
75.69
73.12
75.40
76.03
76.28
76.56
78.41
75.11
77.00
77.37
76.97
76.94
78.74
75.03
77.80
78.16
78.54
78.75
80.42
76.93
79.43
79.81

Nov
128.42
127.76
124.86
122.24
123.07
125.20
127.36
128.44

Oct
79.27
72.26
67.30
73.76
75.84
76.41
78.18
79.62

Dec
Annual
128.58
127.09
127.56
128.36
124.60
125.99
122.15
123.10
123.25
122.47
125.39
124.41
127.55
126.53
128.63
127.59

Nov
78.45
69.81
67.23
72.71
74.61
76.07
77.27
78.63

Y/Y
2.68%
1.00%
-1.85%
-2.30%
-0.51%
1.59%
1.70%
0.84%

Dec
Annual
77.22
78.69
66.79
74.35
66.45
65.44
72.40
71.43
74.57
74.40
75.82
76.34
76.49
77.02
77.93
78.63

Apr
99.55
98.76
80.68
86.92
89.81
94.58
97.04
99.83
2.61%
2.88%

Manufacturing (NAICS) Production Index NSA

May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
100.46
102.94
98.08
101.59
102.76
98.31
99.95
94.75
96.48
93.82
80.89
82.18
80.33
83.42
84.09
88.58
90.41
87.03
90.12
90.47
90.48
92.55
89.51
92.41
93.30
95.05
97.49
93.51
96.00
96.60
97.14
99.55
95.00
98.65
99.24
100.24
102.51
98.21
101.55
102.20
2.19%
2.11%
1.59%
2.76%
2.74%
3.20%
2.98%
3.38%
2.94%
2.98%

Oct
101.63
92.46
84.20
90.25
93.19
95.53
99.42
102.10
4.07%
2.69%

Nov
100.74
89.19
83.94
88.88
91.83
95.24
98.41
100.99
3.32%
2.63%

Dec
Annual
99.29
100.00
85.19
95.44
82.80
82.44
88.44
87.92
91.91
91.11
95.07
94.98
97.56
97.46
100.24
100.33
2.63%
2.61%
2.74%
2.94%

Y/Y
3.13%
-4.56%
-13.62%
6.65%
3.63%
4.24%
2.61%
2.94%

Apr
13,875
13,516
11,957
11,425
11,640
11,850
11,915
11,978
0.55%
0.53%

Manufacturing Employment (000), NSA

Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
13,987
13,919
13,927
13,886
13,580
13,472
13,459
13,376
11,791
11,704
11,722
11,685
11,613
11,614
11,651
11,638
11,801
11,813
11,863
11,840
12,016
12,029
12,048
12,008
12,046
12,013
12,060
12,037
12,116
12,088
12,127
12,105
0.25%
-0.13%
0.10%
0.24%
0.58%
0.62%
0.56%
0.56%

Oct
13,812
13,214
11,607
11,619
11,826
11,980
12,024
12,082
0.37%
0.49%

Nov
13,795
13,085
11,550
11,610
11,790
11,939
12,024
12,069
0.71%
0.37%

Dec
Annual
13,776
13,879
12,883
13,406
11,494
11,847
11,604
11,528
11,800
11,726
11,939
11,919
12,028
11,980
12,073
12,039
0.75%
0.51%
0.38%
0.49%

Y/Y
-1.95%
-3.41%
-11.63%
-2.69%
1.72%
1.64%
0.51%
0.49%

May
13,901
13,530
11,829
11,499
11,690
11,907
11,961
12,023
0.45%
0.52%

Number of Employess in Manufacturing per Manufacturing Production Index point, NSA

Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
138,657 139,381
138,378
135,874 141,919
137,086
135,133
135,899
136,939
135,763 136,860
137,624
135,864 142,180
139,507
142,576
142,914
146,702
146,723 148,202
146,231
143,475 145,695
140,518
138,955
137,858
137,600
130,705 131,446
129,812
128,449 133,454
129,278
128,643
128,739
130,622
126,626 129,603
129,196
127,508 131,981
128,380
126,901
126,899
128,394
124,215 125,296
125,265
123,256 128,639
125,496
124,306
125,401
125,351
122,481 122,784
123,138
121,008 126,453
122,248
121,289
120,936
122,189
119,168 119,976
119,935
118,195 123,086
119,413
118,446
118,335
119,500
-2.71%
-2.29%
-2.60%
-2.32%
-2.66%
-2.32%
-2.34%
-2.15%
-2.20%

Dec
Annual
138,751
138,791
151,226
140,464
138,816
143,704
131,215
131,117
128,385
128,704
125,584
125,488
123,282
122,923
120,444
119,998
-2.30%
-2.38%

Y/Y
-4.92%
1.21%
2.31%
-8.76%
-1.84%
-2.50%
-2.04%
-2.38%