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POWER SYSTEM ADEQUACY

For the National Electricity Market

2012

POWER SYSTEM ADEQUACY

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Published by

AEMO
Australian Energy Market Operator ABN 94 072 010 327 Copyright 2012 AEMO

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Executive summary

AEMO 2012

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Reserve capacity, energy adequacy, operational capacity, and frequency control
Results from the 2012 Power System Adequacy (PSA) reports two -year outlook assessment (using projections 1 developed for the 2012 National Electricity Forecasting Report (NEFR ) and supply capabilities as advised by market participants) established the following key points: The reserve capacity and energy adequacy assessment indicates that the power system will have sufficient supply capacity to meet the Reliability Panels reserve requirements, and (as at the time of publicat ion) the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) is not expecting to invoke the Reliability and Emergency Reserve 2 Trader (RERT) tender process to maintain supply reliability in the National Electricity Market (NEM). The operational capacity assessment indicates that significant new operational issues are unlikely. An area of possible concern involves the adequacy of frequency control during periods of high wind generation and the electrical separation of parts of the transmission network. AEMO is currently working to address this issue, which involves the design of over-frequency generator trip schemes and assessing options to ensure frequencies in the affected regions remain within the operating standards.

Power system sensitivity


The sensitivity analysis involving the impact from an unplanned NEM-wide withdrawal of older generation totalling 1,000 MW from 1 July 2012 onwards indicates that supply reliability will be sufficient to meet the Reliability Panels reserve requirements. The results also suggest that other areas of power system adequacy would not be significantly affected.

The Clean Energy Future plan


The Australian Governments Clean Energy Future plan is not expected to adversely affect power system operations during the PSAs outlook period, given it includes a number of initiatives that are expected to assist the transition. For more information about the analysis and these results, see the AEMO website.
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Scenarios examined by the PSA


The 2012 PSA examines two scenarios and their power system impacts. The Expected scenario represents power system outcomes AEMO considers to be the most likely. The Sensitivity scenario examines the potential impact of withdrawing 1,000 MW of older generation distributed across the NEM. Table 1 provides a high-level comparison of the scenario study results.

1 2

AEMO. Available http://www.aemo.com.au/en/Electricity/Forecasting/2012-National-Electricity-Forecasting-Report. Viewed 07 August 2012. AEMO. Available http://www.aemo.com.au/en/Electricity/Market-and-Power-Systems/Reserve-Management/Procedure-for-the-Exercise-ofReliability-and-Emergency-Reserve-Trader-RERT. Viewed 26 July 2012. 3 Available http://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/Market-and-Power-Systems/Power-System-Adequacy-Two-Year-Outlook.

AEMO 2012

Executive summary

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POWER SYSTEM ADEQUACY

Table 1 Scenario comparison


Assessment Expected scenario Minor shortfalls in South Australia in winter 2013. These coincide with planned generator outages, and are insufficient to initiate Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader (RERT) provisions. All regions fall within the 0.002% unserved energy (USE) Reliability Standard. For an interconnector trip4 during import, frequency standards are maintained in every region except South Australia. Frequency control For an interconnector trip during export, frequency standards are not maintained in Queensland, South Australia, and Victoria and South Australia (combined). Not expected to result in reliability or security issues. Sufficient capability. Reactive power reserves are adequate in every region except New South Wales. Voltage control Some voltage control issues are possible in Tasmania and Victoria. Issues in New South Wales are diminishing. Sensitivity scenario Minor shortfalls in South Australia in winter 2013. These coincide with planned generator outages, and are insufficient to initiate RERT provisions. All regions fall within the 0.002% USE Reliability Standard.

Reserve capacity

Energy reserve

For an interconnector trip during import, frequency standards are maintained in every region except South Australia. For an interconnector trip during export, frequency standards are not maintained in Queensland, South Australia, and Victoria and South Australia (combined). Not expected to result in reliability or security issues. Sufficient capability. Reactive power reserves are adequate in every region except New South Wales. Some voltage control issues are possible in Tasmania and Victoria. Issues in New South Wales are diminishing.

Interconnector capability Post contingency control

The interconnector trips are non-credile contingency events except for the trip of Basslink.

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Executive summary

AEMO 2012

CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY TABLES FIGURES CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION CHAPTER 2 - EXPECTED SCENARIO RESULTS
2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 Reserve capacity Energy adequacy Frequency control Interconnector capability Post-contingency control Voltage control and reactive power reserves

III VII VII 1-1 2-1


2-1 2-2 2-2 2-6 2-7 2-8

CHAPTER 3 - SENSITIVITY SCENARIO RESULTS


3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 Reserve capacity Energy adequacy Frequency control Interconnector capability Post-contingency control Voltage control and reactive power reserves

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3-1 3-1 3-2 3-4 3-4 3-4

CHAPTER 4 - REVIEW OF TRENDS


4.1 4.2 4.3 Constraint equations Voltage excursions Frequency excursions

4-1
4-1 4-1 4-2

CHAPTER 5 - INPUTS AND ASSUMPTIONS


5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 Maximum demand projections Demand-side participation and non-scheduled generation Minimum reserve levels Wind generation Future projects and generation retirement

5-1
5-1 5-2 5-3 5-3 5-3

AEMO 2012

Contents

POWER SYSTEM ADEQUACY

IMPORTANT NOTICE LIST OF NTNDP ZONES LIST OF MEASURES AND ABBREVIATIONS


Units of measure Abbreviations

D1 M1 M3
M3 M3

GLOSSARY

G1

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Contents

AEMO 2012

TABLES
Table 2-1 Energy assessment (Expected scenario) Table 2-2 Frequency control assessment (Expected scenario) - high demand, high import Table 2-3 Frequency control assessment (Expected scenario) - low demand, high import Table 2-4 Frequency control assessment (Expected scenario) - high demand, high export Table 2-5 Frequency control assessment (Expected scenario) - low demand, high export Table 2-6 Likelihood of voltage control difficulties (Expected scenario) Table 2-7 Adequacy of reactive power reserves (Expected scenario) Table 2-8 Historical reactive power reserves under high wind, high demand conditions Table 2-9 Historical reactive power reserves under high wind, low demand conditions Table 3-1 Sensitivity scenario Table 3-2 Energy assessment (Sensitivity scenario) Table 3-3 Frequency control assessment (Sensitivity scenario) high demand, high import Table 3-4 Frequency control assessment (Sensitivity scenario) low demand, high import Table 3-5 Frequency control assessment (Sensitivity scenario) high demand, high export Table 3-6 Frequency control assessment (Sensitivity scenario) low demand, high export Table 3-7 Likelihood of voltage control difficulties (Sensitivity scenario) Table 3-8 Adequacy of reactive power reserves (Sensitivity scenario) Table 4-1 Two-year analysis of interconnector constraint equation trends Table 5-1 Regional maximum demand projections (MW) Table 5-2 Interconnector capability and voltage control study low demand snapshots (MW) Table 5-3 Frequency control study demand cases (MW) Table 5-4 Regional demand-side participation and non-scheduled generation contribution (MW) Table 5-5 Minimum reserve levels (MW) 2-2 2-5 2-6 2-6 2-6 2-8 2-9 2-9 2-10 3-1 3-2 3-2 3-3 3-3 3-3 3-4 3-5 4-1 5-1 5-1 5-2 5-2 5-3

FIGURES
Figure 2-1 Tasmanian Fast Raise FCAS requirements as a function of system inertia Figure 4-1 Frequency excursions in the mainland regions by event type Figure 4-2 Frequency excursions in Tasmania by event type 2-3 4-2 4-3

AEMO 2012

Contents

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POWER SYSTEM ADEQUACY

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Contents

AEMO 2012

CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION
The 2012 Power System Adequacy (PSA) report assesses the electricity supply outlook for the next two years, complementing the 10-year outlook provided by the Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO). AEMO continuously monitors power system adequacy, and provides information to market participants on an 5 ongoing basis in accordance with the National Electricity Rules (for more information see the AEMO website ).

Scenarios and projections examined by the PSA


The 2012 PSA examines two scenarios and their power system impacts: The Expected scenario represents the most likely power system outcomes, and is based on the most probable forecasts and anticipated generation availability. The connection of wind farms recently classified as 6 7 advanced proposals and publicly announced proposals is also considered when there are potential power 8 system operation impacts. The Sensitivity scenario examines the potential impact of the withdrawal of 1,000 MW of older generation distributed across the NEM.

Each scenario also considers component studies involving low and high wind generation. The 2012 PSA treats the generation forecasts and demand projections used in its production as follows: The generation capacity forecasts include all existing generation and committed new generation projects based on information available as at July 2012. This includes recently advised reductions in the available capacity of several coal-fired power stations. As the Australian Governments Contract for Closure negotiations have been extended, the outcomes of this process could not be taken into account, given the preferred timeframe for closure is beyond the PSAs outlook period. The PSA considers demand for three separate studies involving regional maximum demand projections, interconnector capability and voltage control study low demand snapshots, and frequency control study demand cases. The maximum demand projections are consistent with the 2012 National Electricity Forecast Report (NEFR), and are based on a number of assumptions about the economy and government policy (including clean energy policies). For more information about the demand projections, see Section 5.1. Broad considerations involving power system operations include the following: A downward pressure on load growth through higher electricity prices has the potential to improve reliability (relative to the status quo). The bid price arrangements for coal-fired generation will tend to make black coal generation more competitive than brown coal, which may result in increased inter-regional power transfers from Queensland and New South Wales to Victoria and South Australia, and increased gas powered generation (GPG) at the expense of coal-fired generation. This is not expected to impac t reliability or security during the PSAs outlook period.

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AEMO. Available http://www.aemo.com.au/data/market_notices/MARKETNOTICEINDEX.shtm. Viewed 24 July 2012. Wind farms considered include those listed as advanced proposals with estimated commissioning dates prior to the end of June 2014, as listed on AEMOs Generation Information web page in July 2012, at: http://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/NEM-Data/Generation-Information. Wind farms considered include those listed as publicly announced proposals with estimated commissioning dates prior to the end of June 2015, as listed on AEMOs Generation Information web page in July 2012, at: http://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/NEM-Data/Generation-Information. Due to the limited availability of wind turbine modelling and network augmentation information, only the frequency control and post-contingency control studies were able to be modelled accurately.

AEMO 2012

Introduction

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POWER SYSTEM ADEQUACY

The Clean Energy Future plan


The Clean Energy Act was passed by the Australian Government on 8 November 2011. The Acts key instrument is the carbon price (introduced on 1 July 2012), which aims to reduce carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-e) emissions to 9 5% below year 2000 levels by 2020, and up to 25% with equivalent international action. Key features of the policy include the following: The progressive introduction of a CO2-e price of $23, $24.15, and $25.40 per tonne each year for the first three years (for business emitting more than 25 kilotonnes (KT) of CO2-e per annum), followed by an internationally linked, floating price emissions trading scheme. Assistance of $5.5 billion for a pool of generators over the first five years ($1 billion in the 2011 12 financial year, followed by 41.7 million free carbon permits each financial year from 2013 14 to 201617). This assistance is conditional on retaining market registration or seeking certification from AEMO that closure does 11 not threaten reliability for two years. Contracts for closure of up to 2,000 MW of coal-fired generation with emissions intensity above 1.2 tonnes of CO2-e per megawatt hour (t CO2-e/MWh) by 2020. Eligible power stations are Playford, Hazelwood, Yallourn, Collinsville and Energy Brix. The Government originally aimed to complete the process by 30 June 12 13 2012 but has since announced an indefinite extension to the negotiations. Before entering into contracts, the Government will consider power system reliability based on advice from AEMO. A Clean Energy Finance Corporation with access to $10 billion in investment capital over 10 years from 201314, for investment in renewable and low emissions energy and energy efficiency. The Energy Security Council , which may refinance generator debt where it is unavailable or provide assistance where the failure of financially distressed participants risks energy security.
15 14 10

The clean energy legislation does not affect the operation of the national Renewable Energy Target scheme, which provides incentives for new renewable generation.

Clean Energy Future plan impacts on power system operations


The transition mechanisms involving conditional generator assistance and the Energy Security Council should mitigate the risk of severe supply deterioration resulting from the implementation of the Clean Energy Future Plan within the PSAs outlook period. Generators receiving assistance and seeking to withdraw capacity must seek anticipatory certification from AEMO that power system reliability will remain within the Reliability Standard for two years after the withdrawal. The CO2-e price will have some impact on the relative short-run marginal costs of generators from 1 July 2012. For example, it is expected that brown coal generators will face a marginal cost increase in the order of $30/MWh, while a combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT) will face a marginal cost increase of approximately $10/MWh. This may mean that high emission generation will have more partial dispatch and standby periods than has historically been the case. This does not necessarily adversely impact power system reliability or security over the outlook period, as market signals will be expected to encourage all plant to perform during high demand periods. AEMO is in discussions with the most affected generators concerning any changes in operational performance, and will closely monitor issues as they arise.

Australian Government. Available http://www.cleanenergyfuture.gov.au/. Viewed 24 July 2012. With an emissions intensity of over 1 tonne of CO2-e per megawatt hour (t CO2-e/MWh) as-generated, and capped for generators emitting more than 1.3t CO2-e/MWh. For more information about payments, see http://www.climatechange.gov.au/government/initiatives/energy-security-fundcash-payments/eligible.aspx. 11 AEMO. Available http://www.aemo.com.au/anticipatory_certification/anticipatory_certification.html. Viewed 24 July 2012. 12 Australian Government. Available http://www.ret.gov.au/Department/Documents/clean-energyfuture/CONTRACT_FOR_CLOSURE_FACT_SHEET_FINAL.PDF. Viewed 24 July 2012. 13 Australian Government. Available http://minister.ret.gov.au/MediaCentre/MediaReleases/Pages/ContractClosureNegotiationsExtended.aspx. Viewed 24 July 2012. 14 CEFC. Available http://www.cefcexpertreview.gov.au/content/Content.aspx?doc=home.htm. Viewed 24 July 2012. 15 ESC. Available http://www.energysecuritycouncil.gov.au/content/Content.aspx?doc=home.htm . Viewed 24 July 2012.
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Introduction

AEMO 2012

CHAPTER 2 - EXPECTED SCENARIO RESULTS


This chapter presents the two-year power system operational capacity assessment under the Expected scenario. Based on anticipated generation and maximum demand, this assessment informs AEMOs decisions regarding the need to intervene to obtain additional generation, demand-side capacity, or ancillary services. It also provides an assessment of power system adequacy in the following areas: Reserve capacity. Energy adequacy. Frequency control. Interconnector capability. Post-contingency control. Voltage control and reactive power reserves.

Where relevant, the power system adequacy criteria have been assessed against high (maximum demand) and 16 17 low demand scenarios as well as high and low wind generation scenarios. Some studies also assume the accelerated commissioning of wind generation. The maximum demand projections used in the assessment were published by AEMO in late June 2012. Unless noted otherwise, the generation capacities have been provided by the generators via the Medium-term Projected Assessment of System Adequacy (MT PASA). For more information about the assessments inputs and assumptions, see Chapter 5.

2.1

Reserve capacity

The reserve capacity assessment indicates no reserve capacity shortfalls are projected for 2012 13 under the Expected scenario. A maximum reserve capacity shortfall of 52 MW is forecast for South Australia for three days in 18 201314. This is due to concurrent planned outages of a number of South Australian generating units, and AEMO will liaise with the relevant generators to address these shortfalls.

Assessment approach
The reserve capacity assessment compares the amount of supply available within each region with the two-year outlooks expected 10% probability of exceedence (POE) maximum demand projection. The regions minimum reserve level (MRL) is taken into account to ensure unserved energy (USE) does not exceed 0.002% of annual energy while allowing for the unexpected loss of generation. In accordance with National Electricity Rules (NER) obligations, AEMO assesses the adequacy of the reserve 19 20 capacity to meet potential maximum demand outlook using MT PASA , which is published weekly. Where a reserve capacity shortfall is indicated, AEMO ensures generators are given the opportunity to revise generation availability forecasts. If the forecast reserve capacity shortfall persists, AEMO will consider commencing 21 the RERT tender process.

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The high maximum demand projection applies a 10% probability of exceedence (POE) projection. Low maximum demand projections are based on historical demand. For more information, see Section 5.1. 17 For more information on the assumptions of high and low levels of wind generation used for all studies, see Section 5.4. 18 Results are based on the 3 July 2012 MT PASA assessment. 19 For more information about MT PASA requirements, see NER clause 3.7.2. 20 AEMO. Available http://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/NEM-Data/Outlook-PASA-Data. Viewed 24 July 2012.

AEMO 2012

Expected scenario results

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POWER SYSTEM ADEQUACY

2.2

Energy adequacy

The energy adequacy assessment indicates that sufficient energy should be available to ensure that USE in every region will be lower than the 0.002% Reliability Standard set by the Reliability Panel. Table 2-1 provides a high level summary of the results from the Energy Adequacy Assessment Projection (EAAP) 22 analysis performed by AEMO. These results assume short-term average rainfall .

Table 2-1 Energy assessment (Expected scenario)


201213 Regiona Average USE hoursb Total USE (MWh) 101 20 % Annual USE 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.0002% 0.0002% 0.0000% Average USE hoursb 201314 Total USE (MWh) 92 25 % Annual USE 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.0002% 0.0002% 0.0000%

Queensland New South Wales Victoria South Australia Tasmania


a. b.

These results marginally differ from the EAAP assessment results published on 30 June 2012 due to updated demand forecasts. These are the forecast hours of USE, determined by averaging the results from the EAAP analysis simulations.

Assessment approach
The energy adequacy assessment considers each regions energy and maximum demand projections, and restrictions to the amount of energy scheduled generating units can provide due to a range of factors including fuel shortages, cooling water restrictions, and environmental limits. This information is provided by scheduled 23 generators, and published in the EAAP each quarter. The energy adequacy assessment differs from the reserve capacity assessment in the following ways: Reserve capacity assessments are carried out by considering a regions supply -demand outlook at a specific point in time. Energy assessments are more complex as the energy available from an energy-limited generating system can be scheduled at any time, but once used, the energy is no longer available. The question of when to utilise the energy from a range of energy-limited generating systems is complex, and is managed by AEMO by using probabilistic modelling techniques to determine the amount of USE that is considered likely to occur within each region.

2.3

Frequency control

Results from the frequency control assessment indicate that the frequency operating standards will be maintained for all regional separation cases at high import except for the separation of South Australia with low demand and

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AEMO. Available http://www.aemo.com.au/en/Electricity/Market-and-Power-Systems/Reserve-Management/Procedure-for-the-Exercise-ofReliability-and-Emergency-Reserve-Trader-RERT. Viewed 24 July 2012. 22 Short term average rainfall scenario is based on the average rainfall recorded over the past 10 years. 23 AEMO. Available http://www.aemo.com.au/en/Electricity/Market-and-Power-Systems/Energy-Adequacy-Assessment-Projection. Viewed 24 July 2012.

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Expected scenario results

AEMO 2012

high wind generation. The operating standards may not be maintained for separation events during a range of high export cases. AEMO has started designing over-frequency generator trip schemes for Queensland and South Australia to manage the separation of these regions during high export periods. AEMO is also assessing options to ensure the frequency in South Australia remains within the frequency operating standards following a separation event during periods of low demand and high import.

Tasmanian frequency control ancillary service requirements


In determining local frequency control ancillary service (FCAS) requirements in Tasmania, AEMO considers the power system frequency and power system inertia impacts from losing the largest generating unit, load block, and the Basslink interconnector. When there are few generating units synchronised, the Raise and Lower FCAS requirements increase to compensate for the low system inertia. Due to the relatively high power system inertia in interconnected mainland regions, the local FCAS requirement calculations for the mainland are independent of power system inertia. Expected FCAS requirements were studied using historical Tasmanian power system inertia observed over the last two years. The FCAS most affected by low system inertia involves Fast Raise FCAS. Figure 2-1 shows the Tasmanian Fast Raise FCAS requirements as a function of power system inertia taking into account the connection of Musselroe Wind Farm. The graph demonstrates that the requirement for the loss of the largest generating unit (144 MW) may be as high as 200 MW at times of low inertia. Currently, 358 MW of Fast Raise FCAS is registered in Tasmania, making a shortage unlikely within the next two years.

Figure 2-1 Tasmanian Fast Raise FCAS requirements as a function of system inertia
220

165
Tasmanian Fast FCAS Required

110

55

0 3500

4500

5500

6500

7500 Inertia (MWs)

8500

9500

10500

11500

Fast Raise FCAS - High Demand


Fast Lower FCAS - High Demand

Fast Raise FCAS - Low Demand


Fast Lower FCAS - Low Demand

AEMO is currently investigating impact of the increased FCAS requirements and the method of meeting these requirements.

AEMO 2012

Expected scenario results

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POWER SYSTEM ADEQUACY

Background information
Power system frequency provides a measure of the balance between the instantaneous electrical power output from generation and electrical power consumption. Without this balance, power system frequency will fluctuate. To ensure electrical equipment operates safely and correctly, the power system should operate at a nominal frequency close to 50 cycles per second. AEMO purchases a range of FCAS from market participants to enable adequate power system frequency control, which includes regulating services for normal operating conditions, and contingency services for a fast response following contingency events (such as the loss of a generating unit). Although it is not normally regarded as a credible risk, the power system has previously been severed at an 25 interconnection point, resulting in two electrically-separated networks. When this occurs, operational issues within each network involve the following factors: Power system frequency, which should remain within acceptable limits as set by the Reliability Panels frequency operating standard. Power system inertia, which is a measure of the rotating mass of generating units and electrical motors operating at any given point in time. A higher inertia results in less susceptibility to frequency variations due to sudden disturbances. Power system inertia tends to decrease as wind generation displaces existing generation (which has greater inertia). Due to the significant number of wind farms operating in the NEM, overall system inertia decreases at times of high wind generation. With the large number of committed wind farm projects, a large reduction in system inertia potentially has implications for power system operations within the frequency operating standard. Power system inertia in regions other than South Australia and Tasmania is considered unlikely to change significantly over the next two years based on current committed projects.
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Assessment approach
Based on the power systems recent operational history, the points in the network where separation events are 26 likely to result in the largest frequency disturbances are as follows: Loss of the VictoriaSouth Australia AC interconnector due to a non-credible contingency event causing South Australia to become separated from the rest of the NEM. Loss of the VictoriaNew South Wales AC interconnector due to a non-credible contingency event causing Victoria and South Australia to become separated from the rest of the NEM. Loss of the New South WalesQueensland AC interconnector due to a non-credible contingency event causing Queensland to become separated from the rest of the NEM. Loss of the TasmaniaVictoria DC interconnector due to a credible contingency event causing Tasmania to become separated from the rest of the NEM. Table 2-2 to Table 2-5 summarise a series of studies involving electrical-separation scenarios for a range of system condition simulation cases: High demand, high import. Low demand, high import. High demand, high export. Low demand, high export.

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AEMO. Available http://www.aemo.com.au/en/Electricity/Market-and-Power-Systems/Ancillary-Services/Market-Ancillary-Service-Specification. Viewed 26 July 2012. 25 The separation of Tasmania from the mainland regions involves the loss of a single transmission element and is, therefore, considered a credible contingency event. 26 Frequency operating standards for the separation event has been used in analysing the loss of the TasmaniaVictoria DC interconnector. The other separation events have been analysed using the frequency operating standards for the multiple contingency event.

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Expected scenario results

AEMO 2012

For each of these system conditions, three scenarios for wind generation were considered: All existing and committed wind farms are available and operating at low output due to low wind conditions (low wind generation). All existing and committed wind farms are available and operating at high output due to high wind conditions 27 (high wind generation). All existing and committed wind farms are available and operating at high output due to high wind conditions. 28 It is also assumed that wind farms recently classified as advanced proposals or publicly announced 29 proposals are commissioned early and are operating at high output.

Additional wind generation capacity displacing conventional generation based on merit order is also assumed, which reflects the impact of a carbon price from 1 July 2012.

Table 2-2 Frequency control assessment (Expected scenario) - high demand, high import
Region separated Low wind generation Frequency operating standard Queensland South Australia South Australia and Victoria Tasmania Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. High wind generation Frequency operating standard Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. High wind generation with advanced proposals and publicly announced proposals Frequency operating standard Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. Load shedding No. Likely. Likely. Likely.

Load shedding No. Likely. Likely. Likely.

Load shedding No. Likely. Likely. Likely.

27

High wind generation for the South Australian separation event may be constrained by the requirement for a minimum number of synchronous units with power system stabilizers in service in South Australia as per limit advice received from ElectraNet at the time the studies were conducted (which has since been updated). High wind generation for a Tasmanian separation event may be constrained by the minimum fault level requirement in Tasmania to avoid inverter commutation instability. 28 See note 2. 29 See note 3.

AEMO 2012

Expected scenario results

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POWER SYSTEM ADEQUACY

Table 2-3 Frequency control assessment (Expected scenario) - low demand, high import
Region separated Low wind generation Frequency operating standard Queensland South Australia South Australia and Victoria Tasmania Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. High wind generation Frequency operating standard Maintained. Breached. Maintained. Maintained. High wind generation with advanced proposals and publicly announced proposals Frequency operating standard Maintained. Breached. Maintained. Maintained. Load shedding No. Likely. Likely. Likely.

Load shedding No. Likely. Likely. Likely.

Load shedding No. Likely. Likely. Likely.

Table 2-4 Frequency control assessment (Expected scenario) - high demand, high export
Region separated Low wind generation Frequency operating standard Queensland South Australia South Australia and Victoria Tasmania Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. High wind generation Frequency operating standard Maintained. Maintained. Breached. Maintained. High wind generation with advanced proposals and publicly announced proposals Frequency operating standard Maintained. Maintained. Breached. Maintained. Generation tripping Likely. Likely. Likely. Likely.

Generation tripping Likely. Likely. Likely. Likely.

Generation tripping Likely. Likely. Likely. Likely.

Table 2-5 Frequency control assessment (Expected scenario) - low demand, high export
Region separated Low wind generation Frequency operating standard Queensland South Australia South Australia and Victoria Tasmania Breached. Breached. Breached. Maintained. High wind generation Frequency operating standard Breached. Breached. Breached. Maintained. High wind generation with advanced proposals and publicly announced proposals Frequency operating standard Breached. Breached. Breached. Maintained. Generation tripping Likely. Likely. Likely. Likely.

Generation tripping Likely. Likely. Likely. Likely.

Generation tripping Likely. Likely. Likely. Likely.

2.4

Interconnector capability

Results from the interconnector capability assessment indicate that increased wind generation is not expected to adversely impact interconnector power transfer limits over the next two years. In some circumstances, increased wind generation increases interconnector power transfer capability.

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Expected scenario results

AEMO 2012

Only high-level modelling of the newly committed Musselroe Wind Farm was used for the studies as detailed information was not available at the time.

Assessment approach
An important power system adequacy measure involves power transfers between regions because of their impact on power supply reliability. AEMO reviewed recent interconnector power flow trends to identify interconnectors operating at or near their limits, or trending towards these limits (for a summary of the results of this trend analysis see Chapter 4). Analysis undertaken to determine how these limits might be impacted by increased wind generation assumed the following: The transient and voltage stability power system contingencies that have been setting regional export and import limits for the past two years will continue for the next two years. Additional wind generation capacity displaces conventional generation based on a merit order that reflects the impact of the carbon price from 1 July 2012.

2.5

Post-contingency control

Results from the post-contingency control assessment indicate that for the range of conditions examined, the power system has sufficient capacity to recover to a secure operating state within 30 minutes of a credible 30 contingency event occurring, or a sudden reduction in regional wind generation.

Assessment approach
The power system is operated to withstand any single credible contingency event without exceeding operating limits (referred to as a secure operating state), and must be able to be returned to a secure operating state within 30 minutes, so that it can again withstand a subsequent contingency event. The ability to achieve these requirements depends on changing the output of scheduled generation at an adequate rate. While the most onerous contingency event is the loss of the largest generating unit in a region, a reduction in wind generation due to sudden changes in wind speed has also been considered. Normally, a contingency event like this is managed to some extent through changes in interconnector power flows. To simulate the worst case, however, assessments have assumed no interconnector support from other regions. In every region other than South Australia, the loss of the largest generating unit represents the critical credible contingency event. In South Australia, the most critical credible contingency event is a change in wind generation over a 5-minute or 30-minute period of approximately 290 MW and 310 MW, respectively. This exceeds the largest generating unit in South Australia (270 MW).

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High wind generation under the low demand scenario for South Australia is constrained by the requirement for a minimum number of synchronous units with power system stabilizers in service in South Australia as per limit advice received from ElectraNet at the time the studies were conducted (which has since been updated).

AEMO 2012

Expected scenario results

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POWER SYSTEM ADEQUACY

Wind generation has limited ability to control power output in response to a contingency event. Generally, as the amount of power supplied by wind generation increases, the power systems post contingency response capability may degrade should this result in other generating units being switched off. To examine this, both high and low wind generation scenarios have been studied in every region. It is assumed that additional wind generation capacity displaces conventional generation based on a merit order that reflects the impacts of the carbon price from 1 July 2012. The studies indicate that every region has sufficiently high rate of change to maintain a secure operating state following the loss of the largest generating unit or the largest wind generation variation.
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2.6

Voltage control and reactive power reserves

Voltage control assessment


AEMO regularly monitors transmission network voltage levels and notes significant voltage fluctuations or trends that may warrant closer examination, and whether there will be future voltage control issues. Results from the voltage control assessment indicate that in the areas examined (see Table 2-6), voltage control is not expected to deteriorate significantly over the next two years. Some issues are likely to be resolved by transmission network reinforcements. No issue is likely to be made worse by increased wind generation capacity. Voltage control issues experienced at Georgetown relate to the operation of the Basslink interconnector, and Transend Networks and National Grid Australia are addressing this issue. Table 2-6 summarises the analysis of locations where voltage fluctuations have previously occurred, and assesses their likelihood under high and low demand conditions for different levels of wind generation.

Table 2-6 Likelihood of voltage control difficulties (Expected scenario)


High demanda Location High wind generation Diminishing. Possible.
c

Low demanda High wind generation Diminishing. Possible. Likely. Possible. Low wind generation Diminishing. Possible. Likely. Possible.

Low wind generation Diminishing. Possible. Possible.

Beaconsfield West, New South Wales Moorabool, Victoriab Georgetown, Tasmania Gordon, Tasmaniad
a.

Possible.

Diminishing means that committed network augmentations in and around Beaconsfield West are likely to improve voltage control issues in that area. Possible means that no committed network augmentations are likely to significantly improve voltage control in the relevant area and voltage control issues may occur infrequently. Likely means that no committed network augmentations are likely to significantly improve voltage control in the relevant area and voltage control issues are likely to occur frequently. The overvoltage issues at the 500 kV Moorabool Terminal Station were marginal and infrequent, and do not materially impact voltage control. The voltage violations at Georgetown were only observed during low demand periods. The overvoltage issues at the Gordon 220 kV bus were marginal and infrequent, and do not materially impact voltage control.

b. c. d.

Adequacy of reactive power reserves for 201314


To ensure sufficient reactive power reserves, AEMO procures reactive power ancillary services (RPAS) where there are possible deficiencies, and each year publishes a requirement for RPAS in the NTNDP.

31

Regionally aggregated rate of change of active power of scheduled generation (expressed as MW/minute).

2-8

Expected scenario results

AEMO 2012

Insufficient reactive power reserves were observed in the New South Wales 330 kV transmission system between Kangaroo Valley and Upper Tumut under low demand conditions when Snowy generation, and the Tallawarra, Kangaroo Valley and Bendeela Power Stations are out of service. Table 2-7 lists the assessment of current reactive power reserves under high wind scenarios for the next two years.

Table 2-7 Adequacy of reactive power reserves (Expected scenario)


High winda Region High demand Queenslandb New South Wales Victoria South Australia Tasmania
a.
d

Low demand Adequate. Inadequate.c Adequate. Adequate. Adequate.

Adequate. Adequate. Adequate. Adequate. Adequate.

These outcomes are based on studies conducted using base study cases used in the 2011 NTNDP with regional demands scaled to the 2012 NEFR for 201314 (for a detailed list of assumptions, see Chapter 5). Increasing levels of wind penetration are not expected to significantly change regional reactive power requirements in the period leading up to July 2014. For information about the 2012 NEFR see the AEMO website. Available http://www.aemo.com.au/en/ Electricity/Forecasting. Viewed 24 July 2012. Wind generation has no material impact on the reactive reserves in Queensland due to the very low level of wind generation installed. There is insufficient reactive reserve (absorbing capability) in the New South Wales 330 kV transmission network between Kangaroo Valley and Upper Tumut during low demand periods. This is determined under the assumption that Snowy generation, and the Tallawarra, Kangaroo Valley and Bendeela Power Stations are all out of service when the contingency occurs. AEMO has entered into a contract for RPAS to meet the reactive power reserve requirements in New South Wales during light load periods. The newly committed Musselroe wind farm was not modelled due to insufficient information when the studies were conducted.

b. c.

d.

Background information
Power system voltage stability maintenance requires adequate reserves of reactive power. In areas with insufficient reactive power reserves, voltage collapse may occur following a major contingency event. Table 2-8 and Table 2-9 summarise the historical reactive power reserves for each National Transmission Network Development Plan (NTNDP) zone under high wind, high demand and high wind, low demand scenarios. Each scenario is based on a single historical snapshot that most suitably represents the scenario.

Table 2-8 Historical reactive power reserves under high wind, high demand conditions
High wind, high demand Generationb Region Zonea Surplus MVAr export capability as % installed 95% 90% 79% 72% 47% Surplus MVAr import capability as % installed 96% 81% 100% 100% 100% SVCc Surplus MVAr export capability as % installed 98% d

Capacitorc Surplus MVAr export capability as % installed 86% 58% 79% 100% 97%

Reactorc Surplus MVAr import capability as % installed 59% 74% -d 86% 50%

Surplus MVAr import capability as % installed 84% d

NQ CQ Queensland SEQ SWQ New South NNS

100% 92% 100%

79% 100% 98%

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Expected scenario results

2-9

POWER SYSTEM ADEQUACY

High wind, high demand Generationb Region Zonea Surplus MVAr export capability as % installed 90% -d 96% 100% 71% 99% 92% 75% 100% 88% 81% Surplus MVAr import capability as % installed 97% -d 84% 99% 100% 99% 74% 98% 100% 96% 100% SVCc Surplus MVAr export capability as % installed 82% -d -d -d -d 100% 88% -d 100% 100% d

Capacitorc Surplus MVAr export capability as % installed 55% 43% 100% 100% 40% 44% 52% 45% 62% 79% 100%

Reactorc Surplus MVAr import capability as % installed 68% -d 21% -d 100% 24% -d -d 100% 50% 55%

Surplus MVAr import capability as % installed 100% -d -d -d -d 89% 100% -d 0% 74% d

Wales

NCEN CAN SWNSW NVIC LV

Victoria MEL CVIC Tasmania TAS SESA South Australia ADE NSA

a. For a full description of each zone see the list of NTNDP zones. b. As measured at the generator terminals. c. All devices at or above 132 kV were included in the study. d. There are no generators or reactive network devices installed in these zones.

Table 2-9 Historical reactive power reserves under high wind, low demand conditions
High wind, low demand Generation Region Zone
a b

SVCc Surplus MVAr export capability as % installed 97% -d 100% 100% 25% 100% d

Capacitorc Surplus MVAr export capability as % installed 99% 69% 100% 100% 97% 91% 100% 100% 68% 40%

Reactorc Surplus MVAr import capability as % installed 52% 68% -d 56% 17% 14% -d 21% -d 67%

Surplus MVAr export capability as % installed 100% 93% 100% 100% 83% 96% d

Surplus MVAr import capability as % installed 98% 81% 79% 78% 69% 92% d

Surplus MVAr import capability as % installed 83% -d 55% 63% 100% 48% d

NQ CQ Queensland SEQ SWQ NNS New South Wales NCEN CAN SWNSW NVIC Victoria LV

100% 100% 86%

70% 99% 96%

-d d

-d d

-d

-d

2-10

Expected scenario results

AEMO 2012

High wind, low demand Generationb Region Zone


a

SVCc Surplus MVAr export capability as % installed 100% 100% -d 100% 100% -d Surplus MVAr import capability as % installed 83% 59% -d 33% 51% -d

Capacitorc Surplus MVAr export capability as % installed 100% 52% 86% 100% 88% 100%

Reactorc Surplus MVAr import capability as % installed 43% -d -d -d -d 53%

Surplus MVAr export capability as % installed 100% 90% 92% 100% 99% 100%

Surplus MVAr import capability as % installed 100% 59% 96% 100% 88% 87%

MEL CVIC Tasmania TAS SESA South Australia ADE NSA

a. For a full description of each zone see the list of NTNDP zones. b. As measured at the generator terminals. c. All devices at or above 132 kV were included in the study. d. There are no generators or reactive network devices installed in these zones.

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Expected scenario results

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CHAPTER 3 - SENSITIVITY SCENARIO RESULTS


The 2012 PSA Sensitivity scenario examines the potential impact of the unplanned, NEM-wide withdrawal of older generation totalling 1,000 MW from 1 July 2012 onwards. Table 3-1 lists the hypothetical generation withdrawals in each region. This scenario is intended purely as a sensitivity study to examine the potential for certain key measures to cause issues with power system adequacy, and no representation is made as to the actual likelihood of this scenario occurring.

Table 3-1 Sensitivity scenario


Region Queensland New South Wales Victoria South Australia Tasmania TOTAL Generation capacity withdrawn on 1 July 2012 205 MW 500 MW 200 MW 60 MW 35 MW 1,000 MW

3.1

Reserve capacity

The reserve capacity assessment indicates the forecast reserve capacity will meet the reliability requirements in every region in 201213, despite the withdrawal of 1,000 MW of older generation. No reserve capacity shortfalls are forecast for 2012 13. A maximum reserve capacity shortfall of 142 MW is projected for South Australia for 12 days in 201314. This is due to concurrent planned outages of a number of South Australian generating units. The withdrawal of generation totalling 60 MW in South Australia and 200 MW in Victoria has also contributed to the increase in periods where the MRLs are not met. If this scenario eventuates, AEMO will ensure generators are given the opportunity to revise generation availability forecasts. If the forecast reserve capacity shortfall persists, AEMO will consider commencing the RERT tender process.

Assessment approach
The Sensitivity scenario reserve capacity assessment uses MT PASA (for more information, Section 2.1), with modified inputs to reflect the scenarios conditions. This scenario is an indication of what might occur under different circumstances, and is not used as part of the RERT tender process.

3.2

Energy adequacy

The energy adequacy assessment indicates that the withdrawal of 1,000 MW of older generation results in an increase in the potential amount of USE, but does not exceed the 0.002% Reliability Standard in any region.

Assessment approach
Table 3-2 lists the results of the assessment for short-term average rainfall. The Sensitivity scenario assessment uses the EAAP (for more information, see Section 2.2), with modified inputs to reflect the scenarios conditions.

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Sensitivity scenario results

3-1

POWER SYSTEM ADEQUACY

Table 3-2 Energy assessment (Sensitivity scenario)


201213 Region Average USE hoursa 1 1 Total USE (MWh) 215 44 % annual unserved energy 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.0004% 0.0004% 0.0000% Average USE hoursa 1 1 201314 Total USE (MWh) 184 47 % annual unserved energy 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.0004% 0.0004% 0.0000%

Queensland New South Wales Victoria South Australia Tasmania


a.

These are the forecast hours of USE determined by averaging the results from the EAAP analysis simulations.

3.3

Frequency control

The frequency control assessment indicates that while retiring 1,000 MW of older generation causes a material reduction in power system inertia, the effect is not significant enough to substantially change power system frequency performance. The results suggest the following: The frequency operating standards will be maintained for all high import cases except for the South Australian separation cases with low demand and high wind generation. The frequency operating standards may not be maintained for a range of high export cases.

AEMO has commenced designing over-frequency generator trip schemes for Queensland and South Australia to manage the separation of these regions during high export periods. AEMO is also assessing options to ensure the South Australian frequency remains within the frequency operating standards following a separation event during periods of low demand and high import. AEMO believes these mitigating actions will address the frequency control issues identified in the Sensitivity scenario.

Assessment approach
The frequency control adequacy assessment for the Sensitivity scenario uses the same approach as described in Section 2.3, with modified inputs to reflect the scenarios conditions. Table 3-3 to Table 3-6 summarise the results of this assessment.

Table 3-3 Frequency control assessment (Sensitivity scenario) high demand, high import
Region separated Low wind generation Frequency operating standard Queensland South Australia South Australia and Victoria Tasmania Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. High wind generation Frequency operating standard Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. High wind generation with advanced proposals and publicly announced proposals Frequency operating standard Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. Load shedding No. Likely. Likely. Likely.

Load shedding No. Likely. Likely. Likely.

Load shedding No. Likely. Likely. Likely.

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Sensitivity scenario results

AEMO 2012

Table 3-4 Frequency control assessment (Sensitivity scenario) low demand, high import
Region separated Low wind generation Frequency operating standard Queensland South Australia South Australia and Victoria Tasmania Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. High wind generation Frequency operating standard Maintained. Breached. Maintained. Maintained. High wind generation with advanced proposals and publicly announced proposals Frequency operating standard Maintained. Breached. Maintained. Maintained. Load shedding No. Likely. Likely. Likely.

Load shedding No. Likely. Likely. Likely.

Load shedding No. Likely. Likely. Likely.

Table 3-5 Frequency control assessment (Sensitivity scenario) high demand, high export
Region separated Low wind generation Frequency operating standard Queensland South Australia South Australia and Victoria Tasmania Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. High wind generation Frequency operating standard Maintained. Maintained. Breached. Maintained. High wind generation with advanced proposals and publicly announced proposals Frequency operating standard Maintained. Maintained. Breached. Maintained. Generation tripping Likely. Likely. Likely. Likely.

Generation tripping Likely. Likely. Likely. Likely.

Generation tripping Likely. Likely. Likely. Likely.

Table 3-6 Frequency control assessment (Sensitivity scenario) low demand, high export
Region separated Low wind generation Frequency operating standard Queensland South Australia South Australia and Victoria Tasmania Breached. Breached. Breached. Maintained. High wind generation Frequency operating standard Breached Breached. Breached. Maintained. High wind generation with advanced proposals and publicly announced proposals Frequency operating standard Breached Breached. Breached. Maintained. Generation tripping Likely. Likely. Likely. Likely.

Generation tripping Likely. Likely. Likely. Likely.

Generation tripping Likely. Likely. Likely. Likely.

AEMO 2012

Sensitivity scenario results

3-3

POWER SYSTEM ADEQUACY

3.4

Interconnector capability

The interconnector capability assessment indicates that the withdrawal of 1,000 MW of older generation is not expected to adversely impact interconnector power transfer limits over the next two years.

Assessment approach
The interconnector capability assessment for the Sensitivity scenario considered the capability of the interconnectors described in Section 2.4 to determine the impact from withdrawing 1,000 MW of older generation. The studies indicate that this level of withdrawal coupled with the current level of wind generation does not impact the power transfer capability of any of the interconnectors over the next two years. Only high-level modelling of the newly committed Musselroe Wind Farm was used for the studies as detailed information was not available at the time.

3.5

Post-contingency control

The post-contingency control assessment indicates that despite the retirement of 1,000 MW of older generation, the power system still retains sufficient capability to return to a secure operating state within 30 minutes of a credible contingency event, and every region has sufficiently high rate of change to maintain a secure operating state following the loss of the largest generating unit or the largest wind generation variation.

Assessment approach
The assessment for the Sensitivity scenario examined the same contingency events as described in Section 2.5.

3.6

Voltage control and reactive power reserves

The voltage control assessment indicates that the retirement of generation in relevant regions may not cause significant voltage level management issues at the assessed locations.

Voltage control assessment


The voltage control capability assessment for the Sensitivity scenario examined the same locations as described in Section 2.6. Table 3-7 summarises the results of this assessment.

Table 3-7 Likelihood of voltage control difficulties (Sensitivity scenario)


High demanda Location High wind generation Diminishing. Possible.
c

Low demanda High wind generation Diminishing. Possible. Likely. Possible. Low wind generation Diminishing. Possible. Likely. Possible.

Low wind generation

Beaconsfield West, New South Wales Moorabool, Victoriab Georgetown, Tasmania Gordon, Tasmaniad
a.

Diminishing. Possible. Possible.

Possible.

Diminishing means that committed network augmentations in and around Beaconsfield West are likely to improve voltage contro l issues in that area. Possible means that no committed network augmentations are likely to significantly improve voltage control in the relevant area and voltage control issues may occur infrequently. Likely means that no committed network augmentations are likely to significantly improve voltage control in the relevant area and voltage control issues are likely to occur frequently. The overvoltage issues at the 500 kV Moorabool Terminal Station were marginal and infrequent, and do not materially impact voltage control. The voltage violations at Georgetown were only observed during low demand periods. The overvoltage issues at the Gordon 220 kV bus were marginal and infrequent, and do not materially impact voltage control.

b. c. d.

3-4

Sensitivity scenario results

AEMO 2012

Reactive power reserves


The reactive power reserve adequacy assessment for the Sensitivity scenario examined the same locations as described in Section 2.6. Table 3-8 summarises the results of this assessment.

Table 3-8 Adequacy of reactive power reserves (Sensitivity scenario)


High winda Region High demand Queensland
b

Low demand Adequate Inadequate.c Adequate. Adequate. Adequate.

Adequate. Adequate. Adequate. Adequate. Adequate.

New South Wales Victoria South Australia Tasmaniad


a.

These outcomes are based on the studies conducted using the 2011 NTNDP base cases with regional demands scaled to the 2012 NEFR projection for 201314 ( for a detailed list of assumptions see Chapter 5). Increasing levels of wind penetration are not expected to significantly change regional reactive power requirements in the period leading up to July 2014. Wind generation has no material impact on the reactive power reserves in Queensland due to the very low level of wind generation installed. There is insufficient reactive reserve (absorbing capability) in the New South Wales 330 kV transmission network between Kangaroo Valley and Upper Tumut during low demand periods. This is determined under the assumption that Snowy generation, and the Tallawarra, Kangaroo Valley and Bendeela Power Stations are all out of service when a contingency occurs. AEMO has entered into a contract for RPAS to meet the reactive power reserve requirements in New South Wales during light load periods. The newly committed Musselroe wind farm was not modelled due to insufficient information when the studies were conducted.

b. c.

d.

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Sensitivity scenario results

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POWER SYSTEM ADEQUACY

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3-6

Sensitivity scenario results

AEMO 2012

CHAPTER 4 - REVIEW OF TRENDS


A review of system performance over the last two years has established the system performance parameters considered most likely to impact power system capabilities over the next two years. They are: The duration and extent of interconnector constraint equations binding (reaching a limit) or violating (exceeding a limit). Voltage excursions and limit violations. Frequency excursions and limit violations.

4.1

Constraint equations

Table 4-1 lists the high level trends from an examination of interconnector constraint equation behaviour. For more information about these constraint equation trends see the PSA appendix.

Table 4-1 Two-year analysis of interconnector constraint equation trends


Interconnector New South Wales Queensland (QNI) New South Wales Queensland (Terranora) VictoriaNew South Wales VictoriaSouth Australia (Heywood) VictoriaSouth Australia (Murraylink) TasmaniaVictoria (Basslink) Trend Slightly decreasing trend to being constrained on import to New South Wales. QNI bound mainly in the direction of import to New South Wales. Slightly decreasing trend to being constrained on import to New South Wales. Terranora bound mainly in the direction of import to New South Wales. Slightly decreasing trend to being constrained on both import to Victoria and export to New South Wales. VictoriaNew South Wales bound mainly in the direction of export to New South Wales. Slightly decreasing trend to being constrained on both export to South Australia and import to Victoria. Heywood bound mainly in the direction of export to South Australia. Slightly decreasing trend to being constrained on export to South Australia. Murraylink bound mainly in the direction of export to South Australia. Slightly decreasing trend to being constrained on export to Victoria and slightly increasing trend to being constrained on import to Tasmania. Basslink bound relatively more frequently in the direction of import to Tasmania.

4.2

Voltage excursions
The regions with the most over-voltage events were New South Wales, Victoria, and Tasmania. There is an 32 increasing trend to overvoltage violations in New South Wales . The region with the most under-voltage events was Victoria. There is an increasing trend to under-voltage 33 violations in Victoria . South Australia and Queensland have experienced relatively few voltage excursions over the last two years.

Key results from the examination of voltage fluctuations are as follows:

For more information about these voltage excursions trends see the PSA appendix.

32 33

This is due to the overvoltage issues at Beaconsfield West. See Table 3-7 for details. The under-voltage conditions were observed during planned outages in the vicinity of Heywood.

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Review of trends

4-1

POWER SYSTEM ADEQUACY

4.3

Frequency excursions

A measure of the power systems ability to adequately respond to frequency deviations is the time it takes for frequency to return to the normal operating band. This capability assessment analyses instances where recovery has taken longer than five minutes in the mainland regions and ten minutes in Tasmania, which results in a breach 34 of the frequency operation standard. The frequency excursion events can be classified into six types of events as per the frequency operating 35 standards. These include generation events, load events, network events, multiple contingency events, separation events, and normal events. Figure 4-1 and Figure 4-2 show event compliance with frequency operating standards over the past 24 months in the mainland regions and Tasmania, respectively, demonstrating no significant trend. The number of events that did not meet the frequency operating standards includes the following: Where recovery took longer than five minutes in the mainland regions and ten minutes in Tasmania. Where the frequency was outside the containment frequency band.

Figure 4-1 Frequency excursions in the mainland regions by event type


12

10

Number of events

Year
Generation event - Met frequency operating standards Generation event - Did not meet frequency operating standards

Load event - Met frequency operating standards


Network event - Met frequency operating standards

Load event - Did not meet frequency operating standards


Network event - Did not meet frequency operating standards

Multiple Contingency event - Met frequency operating standards Seperation event - Met frequency operating standards
Normal event - Met frequency operating standards

Multiple Contingency event - Did not meet frequency operating standards Separation event - Did not meet frequency operating standards
Normal event - Did not meet frequency operating standards

34 35

AEMC. Available http://www.aemc.gov.au/Panels-and-Committees/Reliability-Panel/Guidelines-and-standards.html. Viewed 26 July 2012. See note 29.

4-2

Review of trends

AEMO 2012

Figure 4-2 Frequency excursions in Tasmania by event type


300

250

200

Number of events

150

100

50

Year
Generation event - Met frequency operating standards Load event - Met frequency operating standards Network event - Met frequency operating standards Multiple Contingency event - Met frequency operating standards
Seperation event - Met frequency operating standards Normal event - Met frequency operating standards

Generation event - Did not meet frequency operating standards Load event - Did not meet frequency operating standards Network event - Did not meet frequency operating standards Multiple Contingency event - Did not meet frequency operating standards
Separation event - Did not meet frequency operating standards Normal event - Did not meet frequency operating standards

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Review of trends

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POWER SYSTEM ADEQUACY

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4-4

Review of trends

AEMO 2012

CHAPTER 5 - INPUTS AND ASSUMPTIONS


5.1 Maximum demand projections

The PSA assessments maximum demand projections are consistent with the medium scenario maximum demand projections developed for the 2012 NEFR. Table 5-1 lists the 10% and 50% POE maximum demand projections for each region.

Table 5-1 Regional maximum demand projections (MW)


10% POE Region Summer 201213 Queensland New South Wales Victoria South Australia Tasmania 9,299 14,065 10,624 3,271 1,412 Winter 2013 8,880 14,032 8,849 2,596 1,813 Summer 201314 9,558 14,289 10,877 3,332 1,420 Winter 2014 9,200 14,115 8,972 2,627 1,851 Summer 201213 9,007 13,399 9,690 2,990 1,371 50% POE Winter 2013 8,510 13,511 8,576 2,487 1,763 Summer 201314 9,262 13,609 9,921 3,045 1,381 Winter 2014 8,818 13,581 8,707 2,516 1,799

Low demand
The PSA assessments low demand estimates are based on low demand periods over the last two years. The interconnector capability and voltage control studies used low demand figures from 26 December 2011. Table 5-2 lists the low demand figures for each region.

Table 5-2 Interconnector capability and voltage control study low demand snapshots (MW)
Region Queensland New South Wales Victoria South Australia Tasmania Low demand 4,021 5,550 3,842 893 804

AEMO 2012

Inputs and assumptions

5-1

POWER SYSTEM ADEQUACY

Frequency control study demand


The frequency control study used selected historical demand snapshots observed the past 2 years: The high demand, high export study used high demand cases corresponding to periods of high interconnector export. The high demand, high import study used high demand cases corresponding to periods of high interconnector import. The low demand, high export study used low demand cases corresponding to periods of high interconnector export. The low demand, high import study used low demand cases corresponding to periods of high interconnector import.

Table 5-3 lists the high and low demand cases.

Table 5-3 Frequency control study demand cases (MW)


Region Queensland Victoria and South Australia South Australia Tasmania High demand, high import 8,249 12,950 3,385 1,607 High demand, high export 7,951 8,489 2,217 1,616 Low demand, high import 5,322 6,543 1,084 902 Low demand, high export 4,118 4,692 988 1,009

5.2

Demand-side participation and non-scheduled generation


36

The 2012 PSA incorporates analysis involving the expected level of demand-side participation (DSP) published in the 2011 ESOO, and the contribution from non-scheduled generation in each region consistent with the generation forecasts provided in the 2012 NEFR. Table 5-4 summarises the forecasts of the contribution from DSP and nonscheduled generation during summer peaks.

Table 5-4 Regional demand-side participation and non-scheduled generation contribution (MW)
Demand-side participation Region 201213 61 98 100 49 0 201314 63 100 100 52 0 Non-scheduled generation 201213 163 134 55 42 91 201314 169 137 56 43 95

Queensland New South Wales Victoria South Australia Tasmania

36

The DSP values published in the 2012 NEFR were not available when the studies for the 2012 PSA were conducted.

5-2

Inputs and assumptions

AEMO 2012

5.3

Minimum reserve levels

The Reliability Panel has determined that no more than 0.002% of demand in any region should be interrupted due to a lack of available supply. AEMO translates this requirement into an MRL for each region, which is used in operational forecasts. Table 5-5 lists the MRLs, last updated by AEMO in mid-2011.

Table 5-5 Minimum reserve levels (MW)


Queensland New South Wales Victoria and South Australiaa VIC Reserve >= 205.00 5.88 * VIC Reserve + SA Reserve >= 1,237.88 201213 and 201314 913 -1,564 1.33 * VIC Reserve + SA Reserve >= 228.00 0.43 * VIC Reserve + SA Reserve >= SA Reserve >= -368.00
a. The MRLs for Victoria and South Australia are shared, dynamic MRLs. For more information see the AEMO website (available http://www.aemo.com.au/electricityops/mrl.html. Viewed 24 July 2012).

Tasmania

-40.53

144

0.23 * VIC Reserve + SA Reserve >= -147.55

5.4

Wind generation

The 2012 PSA considers scenarios involving high and low wind generation cases, based on current installed wind generation capacity as well as committed wind generation projects scheduled for commissioning within the PSAs outlook period. Outputs were estimated by assuming all wind farms operating at full capacity for the high wind 37 generation case , and at zero output for the low wind generation case. All the advanced proposals have estimated commissioning dates prior to the end of June 2014. All the publicly announced proposals have estimated commissioning dates prior to the end of June 2015. The wind farm contribution factors assumed for the reserve capacity studies are published in the 2011 ESOO, 38 Chapter 8, Table 8.7.

5.5

Future projects and generation retirement

The 2012 PSA models all committed generation projects listed in the Generation Information Page that are due to be commissioned during the PSAs outlook period (to the period ending 30 June 2014). Generation retirements considered by the Expected scenario are also consistent with the Generation Information Page. In the Sensitivity scenario, the withdrawal of 1,000 MW of older generation is assumed to occur on 1 July 2012, in addition to any generation retirements identified by the Generation Information Page. All committed transmission projects listed in the 2011 NTNDP, updated in May 2012, and due for completion before 30 June 2014, have also been modelled.

37

High wind generation in South Australia is constrained by the requirement for a minimum number of synchronous units with power system stabilizers in service in South Australia as per limit advice received from ElectraNet at the time the studies were conducted (which has since been updated). High wind generation for a Tasmanian separation event may be constrained by the minimum fault level requirement in Tasmania to avoid inverter commutation instability. 38 AEMO. Available http://www.aemo.com.au/en/Electricity/Planning/~/media/Files/Other/planning/0410-0079%20pdf.ashx. Viewed 24 July 2012.

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5-4

Inputs and assumptions

AEMO 2012

IMPORTANT NOTICE
AEMO publishes this document to provide technical and market data and information regarding the supply and demand balance in the National Electricity Market (NEM) for the next two years. In preparing this document, AEMO has used information available as at 3 July 2012, unless otherwise specified. Some information available after 3 July 2012 might have been included in this publication where practical. AEMO has made every effort to ensure the quality of the information in this publication but cannot guarantee that information, forecasts and assumptions are accurate, complete or appropriate for your circumstances. This publication does not include all of the information that an investor, participant or potential participant in the NEM might require, and does not amount to a recommendation of any investment. Anyone proposing to use the information in this publication (including information and reports from third parties) should independently verify and check its accuracy, completeness and suitability for purpose, and obtain independent and specific advice from appropriate experts. Accordingly, to the maximum extent permitted by law, neither AEMO nor any of AEMOs advisers, consultants or other contributors to this publication (or their respective associated companies, businesses, partners, directors, officers or employees): a) makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the currency, accuracy, or completeness of the information in this publication; or b) has any liability (whether by reason of negligence or otherwise) for any statements, opinions, information or matter contained in or derived from, or for any omission from, this publication, or in respect of a persons use of the information in this publication.

Copyright Notice
2012 Australian Energy Market Operator Limited. The material in this publication may be used in accordance with the copyright permissions on AEMOs website.

AEMO 2012

Important notice

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POWER SYSTEM ADEQUACY

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D2

Important notice

AEMO 2012

LIST OF NTNDP ZONES


Abbreviation Zone

NQ CQ SEQ SWQ NNS NCEN SWNSW CAN NVIC LV MEL CVIC TAS

North Queensland Central Queensland South-East Queensland South-West Queensland Northern New South Wales Central New South Wales South-West New South Wales Canberra Northern Victoria Latrobe Valley Melbourne Country Victoria Tasmania

AEMO 2012

List of NTNDP zones

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POWER SYSTEM ADEQUACY

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M2

List of NTNDP zones

AEMO 2012

LIST OF MEASURES AND ABBREVIATIONS


Units of measure
Abbreviation CO2-e GWh KT MW MWh TWh t CO2-e/MWh Unit of Measure carbon dioxide equivalent Gigawatt hours Kilotonnes Megawatts Megawatt hours Terawatt hours Tonnes of CO2-e per megawatt hour

Abbreviations
Abbreviation AEMC AEMO CCGT CFC DSP EAAP ESOO GPG MD MRL MT PASA NEM NER NTNDP OCGT PASA POE PSA RERT Expanded Name Australian Energy Market Commission Australian Energy Market Operator Combined-cycle gas turbine Contracts for Closure Demand-side participation Energy Adequacy Assessment Projection Electricity Statement of Opportunities Gas powered generation Maximum demand Minimum Reserve Level Medium-term Projected Assessment of System Adequacy National Electricity Market National Electricity Rules National Transmission Network Development Plan Open-cycle gas turbine Projected Assessment of System Adequacy Probability of exceedence Power System Adequacy Two Year Outlook Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader

AEMO 2012

List of measures and abbreviations

M3

POWER SYSTEM ADEQUACY

Abbreviation USE

Expanded Name Unserved energy

M4

List of measures and abbreviations

AEMO 2012

GLOSSARY
Term Definition

Demand-side participation (DSP)

The situation where customers vary their electricity consumption in response to a change in market conditions, such as the spot price. Document published by AEMO each year that provides supply and demand balance forecasts for each region for a 10-year outlook period. Before 2012, the ESOO included annual energy and maximum demand projections that are now published in the National Electricity Forecasting Report (NEFR). A tool used by AEMO to perform a quarterly assessment of energy limitation impacts in the NEM due to factors such as drought and fuel shortages. A generating unit that cannot operate at full capacity over the long term due to fuel or other energy source limitations. This refers to the ability to automatically control generation or load in response to deviations in power system frequency. AEMO ensures there is sufficient FCAS enabled at all times to maintain power system frequency within the Reliability Panels frequency operating standards. System standards determined by the Reliability Panel and published by the Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC), which specify the frequency levels for power system operation. The highest amount of electrical power delivered, or forecast to be delivered, over a defined period (day, week, month, season, or year) either at a connection point, or simultaneously at a defined set of connection points. A tool used by AEMO to perform a weekly assessment of the reserve capacity outlook for the next two years. The reserve margin required in a region to meet the Reliability Standard as calculated using 10% probability of exceedence (POE) scheduled maximum demand conditions. Document published by AEMO each year that provides annual energy and maximum demand projections for each region for a 10-year outlook period.

Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO)

Energy Adequacy Assessment Projection (EAAP)

Energy limited

Frequency control ancillary services (FCAS)

Frequency operating standards

Maximum demand

Medium-Term Projected Assessment of System Adequacy (MT PASA)

Minimum reserve level (MRL)

National Electricity Forecasting Report (NEFR)

AEMO 2012

Glossary

G1

POWER SYSTEM ADEQUACY

Term

Definition

A service identified in clause 3.11.4(a) (of the National Electricity Rules) which provides AEMO with a capability to control the real or reactive power flow into or out of a transmission network in order to: Network control ancillary service

Maintain the transmission network within its current, voltage or stability limits following a credible contingency event, or Enhance the value of spot market trading in conjunction with the central dispatch process.

Probability of exceedence (POE)

Statistical likelihood that an estimate may be met or exceeded, and used to express long-term demand projections where a number of factors influence the actual outcome. For example, a 10% POE maximum demand projection is expected to be met or exceeded, on average, 1 year in 10. RPAS controls reactive power flows into or out of the transmission network, and can be provided by generating units (including wind farms) reactive power capacities, capacitors and reactors, synchronous condensers, static VAR compensators, and reactive power consumption controls. RPAS is a network control ancillary service (NSCAS).

Reactive Power Ancillary Services (RPAS)

Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader (RERT)

Where AEMO enters into reserve contracts under the provisions of clause 3.20 of the National Electricity Rules in response to a power system reserve shortfall. The supply capacity available to a region in excess of the regions demand plus the minimum reserve level applicable to the region. Supply capacity includes generation and demand-side participation (DSP) within the region, and capacity available from other regions via interconnectors. The supply available to a region in excess of the regions demand (at any point in time).

Reserve capacity

Reserve margin

Supply accounts for generation within the region, demand-side participation (DSP), and capacity available from other regions via interconnectors. As defined by clause 4.2.4 of the National Electricity Rules (NER). The amount of energy that cannot be supplied due to insufficient generation capacity, demand-side participation (DSP), or network capability to meet demand.

Secure operating state

Unserved energy (USE)

Under the provisions of the Reliability Panel standard, each regions annual USE can be no more than 0.002% of its annual energy consumption. Compliance is assessed by comparing the 10-year moving average annual USE for each region with the Reliability Panel standard.

G2

Glossary

AEMO 2012

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