Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
2012
Published by
AEMO
Australian Energy Market Operator ABN 94 072 010 327 Copyright 2012 AEMO
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Executive summary
AEMO 2012
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Reserve capacity, energy adequacy, operational capacity, and frequency control
Results from the 2012 Power System Adequacy (PSA) reports two -year outlook assessment (using projections 1 developed for the 2012 National Electricity Forecasting Report (NEFR ) and supply capabilities as advised by market participants) established the following key points: The reserve capacity and energy adequacy assessment indicates that the power system will have sufficient supply capacity to meet the Reliability Panels reserve requirements, and (as at the time of publicat ion) the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) is not expecting to invoke the Reliability and Emergency Reserve 2 Trader (RERT) tender process to maintain supply reliability in the National Electricity Market (NEM). The operational capacity assessment indicates that significant new operational issues are unlikely. An area of possible concern involves the adequacy of frequency control during periods of high wind generation and the electrical separation of parts of the transmission network. AEMO is currently working to address this issue, which involves the design of over-frequency generator trip schemes and assessing options to ensure frequencies in the affected regions remain within the operating standards.
1 2
AEMO. Available http://www.aemo.com.au/en/Electricity/Forecasting/2012-National-Electricity-Forecasting-Report. Viewed 07 August 2012. AEMO. Available http://www.aemo.com.au/en/Electricity/Market-and-Power-Systems/Reserve-Management/Procedure-for-the-Exercise-ofReliability-and-Emergency-Reserve-Trader-RERT. Viewed 26 July 2012. 3 Available http://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/Market-and-Power-Systems/Power-System-Adequacy-Two-Year-Outlook.
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Executive summary
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Reserve capacity
Energy reserve
For an interconnector trip during import, frequency standards are maintained in every region except South Australia. For an interconnector trip during export, frequency standards are not maintained in Queensland, South Australia, and Victoria and South Australia (combined). Not expected to result in reliability or security issues. Sufficient capability. Reactive power reserves are adequate in every region except New South Wales. Some voltage control issues are possible in Tasmania and Victoria. Issues in New South Wales are diminishing.
The interconnector trips are non-credile contingency events except for the trip of Basslink.
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Executive summary
AEMO 2012
CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY TABLES FIGURES CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION CHAPTER 2 - EXPECTED SCENARIO RESULTS
2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 Reserve capacity Energy adequacy Frequency control Interconnector capability Post-contingency control Voltage control and reactive power reserves
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3-1 3-1 3-2 3-4 3-4 3-4
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4-1 4-1 4-2
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5-1 5-2 5-3 5-3 5-3
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Contents
D1 M1 M3
M3 M3
GLOSSARY
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TABLES
Table 2-1 Energy assessment (Expected scenario) Table 2-2 Frequency control assessment (Expected scenario) - high demand, high import Table 2-3 Frequency control assessment (Expected scenario) - low demand, high import Table 2-4 Frequency control assessment (Expected scenario) - high demand, high export Table 2-5 Frequency control assessment (Expected scenario) - low demand, high export Table 2-6 Likelihood of voltage control difficulties (Expected scenario) Table 2-7 Adequacy of reactive power reserves (Expected scenario) Table 2-8 Historical reactive power reserves under high wind, high demand conditions Table 2-9 Historical reactive power reserves under high wind, low demand conditions Table 3-1 Sensitivity scenario Table 3-2 Energy assessment (Sensitivity scenario) Table 3-3 Frequency control assessment (Sensitivity scenario) high demand, high import Table 3-4 Frequency control assessment (Sensitivity scenario) low demand, high import Table 3-5 Frequency control assessment (Sensitivity scenario) high demand, high export Table 3-6 Frequency control assessment (Sensitivity scenario) low demand, high export Table 3-7 Likelihood of voltage control difficulties (Sensitivity scenario) Table 3-8 Adequacy of reactive power reserves (Sensitivity scenario) Table 4-1 Two-year analysis of interconnector constraint equation trends Table 5-1 Regional maximum demand projections (MW) Table 5-2 Interconnector capability and voltage control study low demand snapshots (MW) Table 5-3 Frequency control study demand cases (MW) Table 5-4 Regional demand-side participation and non-scheduled generation contribution (MW) Table 5-5 Minimum reserve levels (MW) 2-2 2-5 2-6 2-6 2-6 2-8 2-9 2-9 2-10 3-1 3-2 3-2 3-3 3-3 3-3 3-4 3-5 4-1 5-1 5-1 5-2 5-2 5-3
FIGURES
Figure 2-1 Tasmanian Fast Raise FCAS requirements as a function of system inertia Figure 4-1 Frequency excursions in the mainland regions by event type Figure 4-2 Frequency excursions in Tasmania by event type 2-3 4-2 4-3
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Contents
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Contents
AEMO 2012
CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION
The 2012 Power System Adequacy (PSA) report assesses the electricity supply outlook for the next two years, complementing the 10-year outlook provided by the Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO). AEMO continuously monitors power system adequacy, and provides information to market participants on an 5 ongoing basis in accordance with the National Electricity Rules (for more information see the AEMO website ).
Each scenario also considers component studies involving low and high wind generation. The 2012 PSA treats the generation forecasts and demand projections used in its production as follows: The generation capacity forecasts include all existing generation and committed new generation projects based on information available as at July 2012. This includes recently advised reductions in the available capacity of several coal-fired power stations. As the Australian Governments Contract for Closure negotiations have been extended, the outcomes of this process could not be taken into account, given the preferred timeframe for closure is beyond the PSAs outlook period. The PSA considers demand for three separate studies involving regional maximum demand projections, interconnector capability and voltage control study low demand snapshots, and frequency control study demand cases. The maximum demand projections are consistent with the 2012 National Electricity Forecast Report (NEFR), and are based on a number of assumptions about the economy and government policy (including clean energy policies). For more information about the demand projections, see Section 5.1. Broad considerations involving power system operations include the following: A downward pressure on load growth through higher electricity prices has the potential to improve reliability (relative to the status quo). The bid price arrangements for coal-fired generation will tend to make black coal generation more competitive than brown coal, which may result in increased inter-regional power transfers from Queensland and New South Wales to Victoria and South Australia, and increased gas powered generation (GPG) at the expense of coal-fired generation. This is not expected to impac t reliability or security during the PSAs outlook period.
5 6
AEMO. Available http://www.aemo.com.au/data/market_notices/MARKETNOTICEINDEX.shtm. Viewed 24 July 2012. Wind farms considered include those listed as advanced proposals with estimated commissioning dates prior to the end of June 2014, as listed on AEMOs Generation Information web page in July 2012, at: http://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/NEM-Data/Generation-Information. Wind farms considered include those listed as publicly announced proposals with estimated commissioning dates prior to the end of June 2015, as listed on AEMOs Generation Information web page in July 2012, at: http://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/NEM-Data/Generation-Information. Due to the limited availability of wind turbine modelling and network augmentation information, only the frequency control and post-contingency control studies were able to be modelled accurately.
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Introduction
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The clean energy legislation does not affect the operation of the national Renewable Energy Target scheme, which provides incentives for new renewable generation.
Australian Government. Available http://www.cleanenergyfuture.gov.au/. Viewed 24 July 2012. With an emissions intensity of over 1 tonne of CO2-e per megawatt hour (t CO2-e/MWh) as-generated, and capped for generators emitting more than 1.3t CO2-e/MWh. For more information about payments, see http://www.climatechange.gov.au/government/initiatives/energy-security-fundcash-payments/eligible.aspx. 11 AEMO. Available http://www.aemo.com.au/anticipatory_certification/anticipatory_certification.html. Viewed 24 July 2012. 12 Australian Government. Available http://www.ret.gov.au/Department/Documents/clean-energyfuture/CONTRACT_FOR_CLOSURE_FACT_SHEET_FINAL.PDF. Viewed 24 July 2012. 13 Australian Government. Available http://minister.ret.gov.au/MediaCentre/MediaReleases/Pages/ContractClosureNegotiationsExtended.aspx. Viewed 24 July 2012. 14 CEFC. Available http://www.cefcexpertreview.gov.au/content/Content.aspx?doc=home.htm. Viewed 24 July 2012. 15 ESC. Available http://www.energysecuritycouncil.gov.au/content/Content.aspx?doc=home.htm . Viewed 24 July 2012.
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Introduction
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Where relevant, the power system adequacy criteria have been assessed against high (maximum demand) and 16 17 low demand scenarios as well as high and low wind generation scenarios. Some studies also assume the accelerated commissioning of wind generation. The maximum demand projections used in the assessment were published by AEMO in late June 2012. Unless noted otherwise, the generation capacities have been provided by the generators via the Medium-term Projected Assessment of System Adequacy (MT PASA). For more information about the assessments inputs and assumptions, see Chapter 5.
2.1
Reserve capacity
The reserve capacity assessment indicates no reserve capacity shortfalls are projected for 2012 13 under the Expected scenario. A maximum reserve capacity shortfall of 52 MW is forecast for South Australia for three days in 18 201314. This is due to concurrent planned outages of a number of South Australian generating units, and AEMO will liaise with the relevant generators to address these shortfalls.
Assessment approach
The reserve capacity assessment compares the amount of supply available within each region with the two-year outlooks expected 10% probability of exceedence (POE) maximum demand projection. The regions minimum reserve level (MRL) is taken into account to ensure unserved energy (USE) does not exceed 0.002% of annual energy while allowing for the unexpected loss of generation. In accordance with National Electricity Rules (NER) obligations, AEMO assesses the adequacy of the reserve 19 20 capacity to meet potential maximum demand outlook using MT PASA , which is published weekly. Where a reserve capacity shortfall is indicated, AEMO ensures generators are given the opportunity to revise generation availability forecasts. If the forecast reserve capacity shortfall persists, AEMO will consider commencing 21 the RERT tender process.
16
The high maximum demand projection applies a 10% probability of exceedence (POE) projection. Low maximum demand projections are based on historical demand. For more information, see Section 5.1. 17 For more information on the assumptions of high and low levels of wind generation used for all studies, see Section 5.4. 18 Results are based on the 3 July 2012 MT PASA assessment. 19 For more information about MT PASA requirements, see NER clause 3.7.2. 20 AEMO. Available http://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/NEM-Data/Outlook-PASA-Data. Viewed 24 July 2012.
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2.2
Energy adequacy
The energy adequacy assessment indicates that sufficient energy should be available to ensure that USE in every region will be lower than the 0.002% Reliability Standard set by the Reliability Panel. Table 2-1 provides a high level summary of the results from the Energy Adequacy Assessment Projection (EAAP) 22 analysis performed by AEMO. These results assume short-term average rainfall .
These results marginally differ from the EAAP assessment results published on 30 June 2012 due to updated demand forecasts. These are the forecast hours of USE, determined by averaging the results from the EAAP analysis simulations.
Assessment approach
The energy adequacy assessment considers each regions energy and maximum demand projections, and restrictions to the amount of energy scheduled generating units can provide due to a range of factors including fuel shortages, cooling water restrictions, and environmental limits. This information is provided by scheduled 23 generators, and published in the EAAP each quarter. The energy adequacy assessment differs from the reserve capacity assessment in the following ways: Reserve capacity assessments are carried out by considering a regions supply -demand outlook at a specific point in time. Energy assessments are more complex as the energy available from an energy-limited generating system can be scheduled at any time, but once used, the energy is no longer available. The question of when to utilise the energy from a range of energy-limited generating systems is complex, and is managed by AEMO by using probabilistic modelling techniques to determine the amount of USE that is considered likely to occur within each region.
2.3
Frequency control
Results from the frequency control assessment indicate that the frequency operating standards will be maintained for all regional separation cases at high import except for the separation of South Australia with low demand and
21
AEMO. Available http://www.aemo.com.au/en/Electricity/Market-and-Power-Systems/Reserve-Management/Procedure-for-the-Exercise-ofReliability-and-Emergency-Reserve-Trader-RERT. Viewed 24 July 2012. 22 Short term average rainfall scenario is based on the average rainfall recorded over the past 10 years. 23 AEMO. Available http://www.aemo.com.au/en/Electricity/Market-and-Power-Systems/Energy-Adequacy-Assessment-Projection. Viewed 24 July 2012.
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high wind generation. The operating standards may not be maintained for separation events during a range of high export cases. AEMO has started designing over-frequency generator trip schemes for Queensland and South Australia to manage the separation of these regions during high export periods. AEMO is also assessing options to ensure the frequency in South Australia remains within the frequency operating standards following a separation event during periods of low demand and high import.
Figure 2-1 Tasmanian Fast Raise FCAS requirements as a function of system inertia
220
165
Tasmanian Fast FCAS Required
110
55
0 3500
4500
5500
6500
8500
9500
10500
11500
AEMO is currently investigating impact of the increased FCAS requirements and the method of meeting these requirements.
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Background information
Power system frequency provides a measure of the balance between the instantaneous electrical power output from generation and electrical power consumption. Without this balance, power system frequency will fluctuate. To ensure electrical equipment operates safely and correctly, the power system should operate at a nominal frequency close to 50 cycles per second. AEMO purchases a range of FCAS from market participants to enable adequate power system frequency control, which includes regulating services for normal operating conditions, and contingency services for a fast response following contingency events (such as the loss of a generating unit). Although it is not normally regarded as a credible risk, the power system has previously been severed at an 25 interconnection point, resulting in two electrically-separated networks. When this occurs, operational issues within each network involve the following factors: Power system frequency, which should remain within acceptable limits as set by the Reliability Panels frequency operating standard. Power system inertia, which is a measure of the rotating mass of generating units and electrical motors operating at any given point in time. A higher inertia results in less susceptibility to frequency variations due to sudden disturbances. Power system inertia tends to decrease as wind generation displaces existing generation (which has greater inertia). Due to the significant number of wind farms operating in the NEM, overall system inertia decreases at times of high wind generation. With the large number of committed wind farm projects, a large reduction in system inertia potentially has implications for power system operations within the frequency operating standard. Power system inertia in regions other than South Australia and Tasmania is considered unlikely to change significantly over the next two years based on current committed projects.
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Assessment approach
Based on the power systems recent operational history, the points in the network where separation events are 26 likely to result in the largest frequency disturbances are as follows: Loss of the VictoriaSouth Australia AC interconnector due to a non-credible contingency event causing South Australia to become separated from the rest of the NEM. Loss of the VictoriaNew South Wales AC interconnector due to a non-credible contingency event causing Victoria and South Australia to become separated from the rest of the NEM. Loss of the New South WalesQueensland AC interconnector due to a non-credible contingency event causing Queensland to become separated from the rest of the NEM. Loss of the TasmaniaVictoria DC interconnector due to a credible contingency event causing Tasmania to become separated from the rest of the NEM. Table 2-2 to Table 2-5 summarise a series of studies involving electrical-separation scenarios for a range of system condition simulation cases: High demand, high import. Low demand, high import. High demand, high export. Low demand, high export.
24
AEMO. Available http://www.aemo.com.au/en/Electricity/Market-and-Power-Systems/Ancillary-Services/Market-Ancillary-Service-Specification. Viewed 26 July 2012. 25 The separation of Tasmania from the mainland regions involves the loss of a single transmission element and is, therefore, considered a credible contingency event. 26 Frequency operating standards for the separation event has been used in analysing the loss of the TasmaniaVictoria DC interconnector. The other separation events have been analysed using the frequency operating standards for the multiple contingency event.
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For each of these system conditions, three scenarios for wind generation were considered: All existing and committed wind farms are available and operating at low output due to low wind conditions (low wind generation). All existing and committed wind farms are available and operating at high output due to high wind conditions 27 (high wind generation). All existing and committed wind farms are available and operating at high output due to high wind conditions. 28 It is also assumed that wind farms recently classified as advanced proposals or publicly announced 29 proposals are commissioned early and are operating at high output.
Additional wind generation capacity displacing conventional generation based on merit order is also assumed, which reflects the impact of a carbon price from 1 July 2012.
Table 2-2 Frequency control assessment (Expected scenario) - high demand, high import
Region separated Low wind generation Frequency operating standard Queensland South Australia South Australia and Victoria Tasmania Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. High wind generation Frequency operating standard Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. High wind generation with advanced proposals and publicly announced proposals Frequency operating standard Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. Load shedding No. Likely. Likely. Likely.
27
High wind generation for the South Australian separation event may be constrained by the requirement for a minimum number of synchronous units with power system stabilizers in service in South Australia as per limit advice received from ElectraNet at the time the studies were conducted (which has since been updated). High wind generation for a Tasmanian separation event may be constrained by the minimum fault level requirement in Tasmania to avoid inverter commutation instability. 28 See note 2. 29 See note 3.
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Table 2-3 Frequency control assessment (Expected scenario) - low demand, high import
Region separated Low wind generation Frequency operating standard Queensland South Australia South Australia and Victoria Tasmania Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. High wind generation Frequency operating standard Maintained. Breached. Maintained. Maintained. High wind generation with advanced proposals and publicly announced proposals Frequency operating standard Maintained. Breached. Maintained. Maintained. Load shedding No. Likely. Likely. Likely.
Table 2-4 Frequency control assessment (Expected scenario) - high demand, high export
Region separated Low wind generation Frequency operating standard Queensland South Australia South Australia and Victoria Tasmania Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. High wind generation Frequency operating standard Maintained. Maintained. Breached. Maintained. High wind generation with advanced proposals and publicly announced proposals Frequency operating standard Maintained. Maintained. Breached. Maintained. Generation tripping Likely. Likely. Likely. Likely.
Table 2-5 Frequency control assessment (Expected scenario) - low demand, high export
Region separated Low wind generation Frequency operating standard Queensland South Australia South Australia and Victoria Tasmania Breached. Breached. Breached. Maintained. High wind generation Frequency operating standard Breached. Breached. Breached. Maintained. High wind generation with advanced proposals and publicly announced proposals Frequency operating standard Breached. Breached. Breached. Maintained. Generation tripping Likely. Likely. Likely. Likely.
2.4
Interconnector capability
Results from the interconnector capability assessment indicate that increased wind generation is not expected to adversely impact interconnector power transfer limits over the next two years. In some circumstances, increased wind generation increases interconnector power transfer capability.
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Only high-level modelling of the newly committed Musselroe Wind Farm was used for the studies as detailed information was not available at the time.
Assessment approach
An important power system adequacy measure involves power transfers between regions because of their impact on power supply reliability. AEMO reviewed recent interconnector power flow trends to identify interconnectors operating at or near their limits, or trending towards these limits (for a summary of the results of this trend analysis see Chapter 4). Analysis undertaken to determine how these limits might be impacted by increased wind generation assumed the following: The transient and voltage stability power system contingencies that have been setting regional export and import limits for the past two years will continue for the next two years. Additional wind generation capacity displaces conventional generation based on a merit order that reflects the impact of the carbon price from 1 July 2012.
2.5
Post-contingency control
Results from the post-contingency control assessment indicate that for the range of conditions examined, the power system has sufficient capacity to recover to a secure operating state within 30 minutes of a credible 30 contingency event occurring, or a sudden reduction in regional wind generation.
Assessment approach
The power system is operated to withstand any single credible contingency event without exceeding operating limits (referred to as a secure operating state), and must be able to be returned to a secure operating state within 30 minutes, so that it can again withstand a subsequent contingency event. The ability to achieve these requirements depends on changing the output of scheduled generation at an adequate rate. While the most onerous contingency event is the loss of the largest generating unit in a region, a reduction in wind generation due to sudden changes in wind speed has also been considered. Normally, a contingency event like this is managed to some extent through changes in interconnector power flows. To simulate the worst case, however, assessments have assumed no interconnector support from other regions. In every region other than South Australia, the loss of the largest generating unit represents the critical credible contingency event. In South Australia, the most critical credible contingency event is a change in wind generation over a 5-minute or 30-minute period of approximately 290 MW and 310 MW, respectively. This exceeds the largest generating unit in South Australia (270 MW).
30
High wind generation under the low demand scenario for South Australia is constrained by the requirement for a minimum number of synchronous units with power system stabilizers in service in South Australia as per limit advice received from ElectraNet at the time the studies were conducted (which has since been updated).
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Wind generation has limited ability to control power output in response to a contingency event. Generally, as the amount of power supplied by wind generation increases, the power systems post contingency response capability may degrade should this result in other generating units being switched off. To examine this, both high and low wind generation scenarios have been studied in every region. It is assumed that additional wind generation capacity displaces conventional generation based on a merit order that reflects the impacts of the carbon price from 1 July 2012. The studies indicate that every region has sufficiently high rate of change to maintain a secure operating state following the loss of the largest generating unit or the largest wind generation variation.
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2.6
Low demanda High wind generation Diminishing. Possible. Likely. Possible. Low wind generation Diminishing. Possible. Likely. Possible.
Beaconsfield West, New South Wales Moorabool, Victoriab Georgetown, Tasmania Gordon, Tasmaniad
a.
Possible.
Diminishing means that committed network augmentations in and around Beaconsfield West are likely to improve voltage control issues in that area. Possible means that no committed network augmentations are likely to significantly improve voltage control in the relevant area and voltage control issues may occur infrequently. Likely means that no committed network augmentations are likely to significantly improve voltage control in the relevant area and voltage control issues are likely to occur frequently. The overvoltage issues at the 500 kV Moorabool Terminal Station were marginal and infrequent, and do not materially impact voltage control. The voltage violations at Georgetown were only observed during low demand periods. The overvoltage issues at the Gordon 220 kV bus were marginal and infrequent, and do not materially impact voltage control.
b. c. d.
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Regionally aggregated rate of change of active power of scheduled generation (expressed as MW/minute).
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Insufficient reactive power reserves were observed in the New South Wales 330 kV transmission system between Kangaroo Valley and Upper Tumut under low demand conditions when Snowy generation, and the Tallawarra, Kangaroo Valley and Bendeela Power Stations are out of service. Table 2-7 lists the assessment of current reactive power reserves under high wind scenarios for the next two years.
These outcomes are based on studies conducted using base study cases used in the 2011 NTNDP with regional demands scaled to the 2012 NEFR for 201314 (for a detailed list of assumptions, see Chapter 5). Increasing levels of wind penetration are not expected to significantly change regional reactive power requirements in the period leading up to July 2014. For information about the 2012 NEFR see the AEMO website. Available http://www.aemo.com.au/en/ Electricity/Forecasting. Viewed 24 July 2012. Wind generation has no material impact on the reactive reserves in Queensland due to the very low level of wind generation installed. There is insufficient reactive reserve (absorbing capability) in the New South Wales 330 kV transmission network between Kangaroo Valley and Upper Tumut during low demand periods. This is determined under the assumption that Snowy generation, and the Tallawarra, Kangaroo Valley and Bendeela Power Stations are all out of service when the contingency occurs. AEMO has entered into a contract for RPAS to meet the reactive power reserve requirements in New South Wales during light load periods. The newly committed Musselroe wind farm was not modelled due to insufficient information when the studies were conducted.
b. c.
d.
Background information
Power system voltage stability maintenance requires adequate reserves of reactive power. In areas with insufficient reactive power reserves, voltage collapse may occur following a major contingency event. Table 2-8 and Table 2-9 summarise the historical reactive power reserves for each National Transmission Network Development Plan (NTNDP) zone under high wind, high demand and high wind, low demand scenarios. Each scenario is based on a single historical snapshot that most suitably represents the scenario.
Table 2-8 Historical reactive power reserves under high wind, high demand conditions
High wind, high demand Generationb Region Zonea Surplus MVAr export capability as % installed 95% 90% 79% 72% 47% Surplus MVAr import capability as % installed 96% 81% 100% 100% 100% SVCc Surplus MVAr export capability as % installed 98% d
Capacitorc Surplus MVAr export capability as % installed 86% 58% 79% 100% 97%
Reactorc Surplus MVAr import capability as % installed 59% 74% -d 86% 50%
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High wind, high demand Generationb Region Zonea Surplus MVAr export capability as % installed 90% -d 96% 100% 71% 99% 92% 75% 100% 88% 81% Surplus MVAr import capability as % installed 97% -d 84% 99% 100% 99% 74% 98% 100% 96% 100% SVCc Surplus MVAr export capability as % installed 82% -d -d -d -d 100% 88% -d 100% 100% d
Capacitorc Surplus MVAr export capability as % installed 55% 43% 100% 100% 40% 44% 52% 45% 62% 79% 100%
Reactorc Surplus MVAr import capability as % installed 68% -d 21% -d 100% 24% -d -d 100% 50% 55%
Wales
Victoria MEL CVIC Tasmania TAS SESA South Australia ADE NSA
a. For a full description of each zone see the list of NTNDP zones. b. As measured at the generator terminals. c. All devices at or above 132 kV were included in the study. d. There are no generators or reactive network devices installed in these zones.
Table 2-9 Historical reactive power reserves under high wind, low demand conditions
High wind, low demand Generation Region Zone
a b
SVCc Surplus MVAr export capability as % installed 97% -d 100% 100% 25% 100% d
Capacitorc Surplus MVAr export capability as % installed 99% 69% 100% 100% 97% 91% 100% 100% 68% 40%
Reactorc Surplus MVAr import capability as % installed 52% 68% -d 56% 17% 14% -d 21% -d 67%
Surplus MVAr export capability as % installed 100% 93% 100% 100% 83% 96% d
Surplus MVAr import capability as % installed 98% 81% 79% 78% 69% 92% d
Surplus MVAr import capability as % installed 83% -d 55% 63% 100% 48% d
NQ CQ Queensland SEQ SWQ NNS New South Wales NCEN CAN SWNSW NVIC Victoria LV
-d d
-d d
-d
-d
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SVCc Surplus MVAr export capability as % installed 100% 100% -d 100% 100% -d Surplus MVAr import capability as % installed 83% 59% -d 33% 51% -d
Capacitorc Surplus MVAr export capability as % installed 100% 52% 86% 100% 88% 100%
Surplus MVAr export capability as % installed 100% 90% 92% 100% 99% 100%
Surplus MVAr import capability as % installed 100% 59% 96% 100% 88% 87%
a. For a full description of each zone see the list of NTNDP zones. b. As measured at the generator terminals. c. All devices at or above 132 kV were included in the study. d. There are no generators or reactive network devices installed in these zones.
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3.1
Reserve capacity
The reserve capacity assessment indicates the forecast reserve capacity will meet the reliability requirements in every region in 201213, despite the withdrawal of 1,000 MW of older generation. No reserve capacity shortfalls are forecast for 2012 13. A maximum reserve capacity shortfall of 142 MW is projected for South Australia for 12 days in 201314. This is due to concurrent planned outages of a number of South Australian generating units. The withdrawal of generation totalling 60 MW in South Australia and 200 MW in Victoria has also contributed to the increase in periods where the MRLs are not met. If this scenario eventuates, AEMO will ensure generators are given the opportunity to revise generation availability forecasts. If the forecast reserve capacity shortfall persists, AEMO will consider commencing the RERT tender process.
Assessment approach
The Sensitivity scenario reserve capacity assessment uses MT PASA (for more information, Section 2.1), with modified inputs to reflect the scenarios conditions. This scenario is an indication of what might occur under different circumstances, and is not used as part of the RERT tender process.
3.2
Energy adequacy
The energy adequacy assessment indicates that the withdrawal of 1,000 MW of older generation results in an increase in the potential amount of USE, but does not exceed the 0.002% Reliability Standard in any region.
Assessment approach
Table 3-2 lists the results of the assessment for short-term average rainfall. The Sensitivity scenario assessment uses the EAAP (for more information, see Section 2.2), with modified inputs to reflect the scenarios conditions.
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These are the forecast hours of USE determined by averaging the results from the EAAP analysis simulations.
3.3
Frequency control
The frequency control assessment indicates that while retiring 1,000 MW of older generation causes a material reduction in power system inertia, the effect is not significant enough to substantially change power system frequency performance. The results suggest the following: The frequency operating standards will be maintained for all high import cases except for the South Australian separation cases with low demand and high wind generation. The frequency operating standards may not be maintained for a range of high export cases.
AEMO has commenced designing over-frequency generator trip schemes for Queensland and South Australia to manage the separation of these regions during high export periods. AEMO is also assessing options to ensure the South Australian frequency remains within the frequency operating standards following a separation event during periods of low demand and high import. AEMO believes these mitigating actions will address the frequency control issues identified in the Sensitivity scenario.
Assessment approach
The frequency control adequacy assessment for the Sensitivity scenario uses the same approach as described in Section 2.3, with modified inputs to reflect the scenarios conditions. Table 3-3 to Table 3-6 summarise the results of this assessment.
Table 3-3 Frequency control assessment (Sensitivity scenario) high demand, high import
Region separated Low wind generation Frequency operating standard Queensland South Australia South Australia and Victoria Tasmania Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. High wind generation Frequency operating standard Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. High wind generation with advanced proposals and publicly announced proposals Frequency operating standard Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. Load shedding No. Likely. Likely. Likely.
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Table 3-4 Frequency control assessment (Sensitivity scenario) low demand, high import
Region separated Low wind generation Frequency operating standard Queensland South Australia South Australia and Victoria Tasmania Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. High wind generation Frequency operating standard Maintained. Breached. Maintained. Maintained. High wind generation with advanced proposals and publicly announced proposals Frequency operating standard Maintained. Breached. Maintained. Maintained. Load shedding No. Likely. Likely. Likely.
Table 3-5 Frequency control assessment (Sensitivity scenario) high demand, high export
Region separated Low wind generation Frequency operating standard Queensland South Australia South Australia and Victoria Tasmania Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. Maintained. High wind generation Frequency operating standard Maintained. Maintained. Breached. Maintained. High wind generation with advanced proposals and publicly announced proposals Frequency operating standard Maintained. Maintained. Breached. Maintained. Generation tripping Likely. Likely. Likely. Likely.
Table 3-6 Frequency control assessment (Sensitivity scenario) low demand, high export
Region separated Low wind generation Frequency operating standard Queensland South Australia South Australia and Victoria Tasmania Breached. Breached. Breached. Maintained. High wind generation Frequency operating standard Breached Breached. Breached. Maintained. High wind generation with advanced proposals and publicly announced proposals Frequency operating standard Breached Breached. Breached. Maintained. Generation tripping Likely. Likely. Likely. Likely.
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3-3
3.4
Interconnector capability
The interconnector capability assessment indicates that the withdrawal of 1,000 MW of older generation is not expected to adversely impact interconnector power transfer limits over the next two years.
Assessment approach
The interconnector capability assessment for the Sensitivity scenario considered the capability of the interconnectors described in Section 2.4 to determine the impact from withdrawing 1,000 MW of older generation. The studies indicate that this level of withdrawal coupled with the current level of wind generation does not impact the power transfer capability of any of the interconnectors over the next two years. Only high-level modelling of the newly committed Musselroe Wind Farm was used for the studies as detailed information was not available at the time.
3.5
Post-contingency control
The post-contingency control assessment indicates that despite the retirement of 1,000 MW of older generation, the power system still retains sufficient capability to return to a secure operating state within 30 minutes of a credible contingency event, and every region has sufficiently high rate of change to maintain a secure operating state following the loss of the largest generating unit or the largest wind generation variation.
Assessment approach
The assessment for the Sensitivity scenario examined the same contingency events as described in Section 2.5.
3.6
The voltage control assessment indicates that the retirement of generation in relevant regions may not cause significant voltage level management issues at the assessed locations.
Low demanda High wind generation Diminishing. Possible. Likely. Possible. Low wind generation Diminishing. Possible. Likely. Possible.
Beaconsfield West, New South Wales Moorabool, Victoriab Georgetown, Tasmania Gordon, Tasmaniad
a.
Possible.
Diminishing means that committed network augmentations in and around Beaconsfield West are likely to improve voltage contro l issues in that area. Possible means that no committed network augmentations are likely to significantly improve voltage control in the relevant area and voltage control issues may occur infrequently. Likely means that no committed network augmentations are likely to significantly improve voltage control in the relevant area and voltage control issues are likely to occur frequently. The overvoltage issues at the 500 kV Moorabool Terminal Station were marginal and infrequent, and do not materially impact voltage control. The voltage violations at Georgetown were only observed during low demand periods. The overvoltage issues at the Gordon 220 kV bus were marginal and infrequent, and do not materially impact voltage control.
b. c. d.
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These outcomes are based on the studies conducted using the 2011 NTNDP base cases with regional demands scaled to the 2012 NEFR projection for 201314 ( for a detailed list of assumptions see Chapter 5). Increasing levels of wind penetration are not expected to significantly change regional reactive power requirements in the period leading up to July 2014. Wind generation has no material impact on the reactive power reserves in Queensland due to the very low level of wind generation installed. There is insufficient reactive reserve (absorbing capability) in the New South Wales 330 kV transmission network between Kangaroo Valley and Upper Tumut during low demand periods. This is determined under the assumption that Snowy generation, and the Tallawarra, Kangaroo Valley and Bendeela Power Stations are all out of service when a contingency occurs. AEMO has entered into a contract for RPAS to meet the reactive power reserve requirements in New South Wales during light load periods. The newly committed Musselroe wind farm was not modelled due to insufficient information when the studies were conducted.
b. c.
d.
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4.1
Constraint equations
Table 4-1 lists the high level trends from an examination of interconnector constraint equation behaviour. For more information about these constraint equation trends see the PSA appendix.
4.2
Voltage excursions
The regions with the most over-voltage events were New South Wales, Victoria, and Tasmania. There is an 32 increasing trend to overvoltage violations in New South Wales . The region with the most under-voltage events was Victoria. There is an increasing trend to under-voltage 33 violations in Victoria . South Australia and Queensland have experienced relatively few voltage excursions over the last two years.
For more information about these voltage excursions trends see the PSA appendix.
32 33
This is due to the overvoltage issues at Beaconsfield West. See Table 3-7 for details. The under-voltage conditions were observed during planned outages in the vicinity of Heywood.
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Review of trends
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4.3
Frequency excursions
A measure of the power systems ability to adequately respond to frequency deviations is the time it takes for frequency to return to the normal operating band. This capability assessment analyses instances where recovery has taken longer than five minutes in the mainland regions and ten minutes in Tasmania, which results in a breach 34 of the frequency operation standard. The frequency excursion events can be classified into six types of events as per the frequency operating 35 standards. These include generation events, load events, network events, multiple contingency events, separation events, and normal events. Figure 4-1 and Figure 4-2 show event compliance with frequency operating standards over the past 24 months in the mainland regions and Tasmania, respectively, demonstrating no significant trend. The number of events that did not meet the frequency operating standards includes the following: Where recovery took longer than five minutes in the mainland regions and ten minutes in Tasmania. Where the frequency was outside the containment frequency band.
10
Number of events
Year
Generation event - Met frequency operating standards Generation event - Did not meet frequency operating standards
Multiple Contingency event - Met frequency operating standards Seperation event - Met frequency operating standards
Normal event - Met frequency operating standards
Multiple Contingency event - Did not meet frequency operating standards Separation event - Did not meet frequency operating standards
Normal event - Did not meet frequency operating standards
34 35
4-2
Review of trends
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250
200
Number of events
150
100
50
Year
Generation event - Met frequency operating standards Load event - Met frequency operating standards Network event - Met frequency operating standards Multiple Contingency event - Met frequency operating standards
Seperation event - Met frequency operating standards Normal event - Met frequency operating standards
Generation event - Did not meet frequency operating standards Load event - Did not meet frequency operating standards Network event - Did not meet frequency operating standards Multiple Contingency event - Did not meet frequency operating standards
Separation event - Did not meet frequency operating standards Normal event - Did not meet frequency operating standards
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Review of trends
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Review of trends
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The PSA assessments maximum demand projections are consistent with the medium scenario maximum demand projections developed for the 2012 NEFR. Table 5-1 lists the 10% and 50% POE maximum demand projections for each region.
Low demand
The PSA assessments low demand estimates are based on low demand periods over the last two years. The interconnector capability and voltage control studies used low demand figures from 26 December 2011. Table 5-2 lists the low demand figures for each region.
Table 5-2 Interconnector capability and voltage control study low demand snapshots (MW)
Region Queensland New South Wales Victoria South Australia Tasmania Low demand 4,021 5,550 3,842 893 804
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5.2
The 2012 PSA incorporates analysis involving the expected level of demand-side participation (DSP) published in the 2011 ESOO, and the contribution from non-scheduled generation in each region consistent with the generation forecasts provided in the 2012 NEFR. Table 5-4 summarises the forecasts of the contribution from DSP and nonscheduled generation during summer peaks.
Table 5-4 Regional demand-side participation and non-scheduled generation contribution (MW)
Demand-side participation Region 201213 61 98 100 49 0 201314 63 100 100 52 0 Non-scheduled generation 201213 163 134 55 42 91 201314 169 137 56 43 95
36
The DSP values published in the 2012 NEFR were not available when the studies for the 2012 PSA were conducted.
5-2
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5.3
The Reliability Panel has determined that no more than 0.002% of demand in any region should be interrupted due to a lack of available supply. AEMO translates this requirement into an MRL for each region, which is used in operational forecasts. Table 5-5 lists the MRLs, last updated by AEMO in mid-2011.
Tasmania
-40.53
144
5.4
Wind generation
The 2012 PSA considers scenarios involving high and low wind generation cases, based on current installed wind generation capacity as well as committed wind generation projects scheduled for commissioning within the PSAs outlook period. Outputs were estimated by assuming all wind farms operating at full capacity for the high wind 37 generation case , and at zero output for the low wind generation case. All the advanced proposals have estimated commissioning dates prior to the end of June 2014. All the publicly announced proposals have estimated commissioning dates prior to the end of June 2015. The wind farm contribution factors assumed for the reserve capacity studies are published in the 2011 ESOO, 38 Chapter 8, Table 8.7.
5.5
The 2012 PSA models all committed generation projects listed in the Generation Information Page that are due to be commissioned during the PSAs outlook period (to the period ending 30 June 2014). Generation retirements considered by the Expected scenario are also consistent with the Generation Information Page. In the Sensitivity scenario, the withdrawal of 1,000 MW of older generation is assumed to occur on 1 July 2012, in addition to any generation retirements identified by the Generation Information Page. All committed transmission projects listed in the 2011 NTNDP, updated in May 2012, and due for completion before 30 June 2014, have also been modelled.
37
High wind generation in South Australia is constrained by the requirement for a minimum number of synchronous units with power system stabilizers in service in South Australia as per limit advice received from ElectraNet at the time the studies were conducted (which has since been updated). High wind generation for a Tasmanian separation event may be constrained by the minimum fault level requirement in Tasmania to avoid inverter commutation instability. 38 AEMO. Available http://www.aemo.com.au/en/Electricity/Planning/~/media/Files/Other/planning/0410-0079%20pdf.ashx. Viewed 24 July 2012.
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IMPORTANT NOTICE
AEMO publishes this document to provide technical and market data and information regarding the supply and demand balance in the National Electricity Market (NEM) for the next two years. In preparing this document, AEMO has used information available as at 3 July 2012, unless otherwise specified. Some information available after 3 July 2012 might have been included in this publication where practical. AEMO has made every effort to ensure the quality of the information in this publication but cannot guarantee that information, forecasts and assumptions are accurate, complete or appropriate for your circumstances. This publication does not include all of the information that an investor, participant or potential participant in the NEM might require, and does not amount to a recommendation of any investment. Anyone proposing to use the information in this publication (including information and reports from third parties) should independently verify and check its accuracy, completeness and suitability for purpose, and obtain independent and specific advice from appropriate experts. Accordingly, to the maximum extent permitted by law, neither AEMO nor any of AEMOs advisers, consultants or other contributors to this publication (or their respective associated companies, businesses, partners, directors, officers or employees): a) makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the currency, accuracy, or completeness of the information in this publication; or b) has any liability (whether by reason of negligence or otherwise) for any statements, opinions, information or matter contained in or derived from, or for any omission from, this publication, or in respect of a persons use of the information in this publication.
Copyright Notice
2012 Australian Energy Market Operator Limited. The material in this publication may be used in accordance with the copyright permissions on AEMOs website.
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Important notice
D1
D2
Important notice
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NQ CQ SEQ SWQ NNS NCEN SWNSW CAN NVIC LV MEL CVIC TAS
North Queensland Central Queensland South-East Queensland South-West Queensland Northern New South Wales Central New South Wales South-West New South Wales Canberra Northern Victoria Latrobe Valley Melbourne Country Victoria Tasmania
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M1
M2
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Abbreviations
Abbreviation AEMC AEMO CCGT CFC DSP EAAP ESOO GPG MD MRL MT PASA NEM NER NTNDP OCGT PASA POE PSA RERT Expanded Name Australian Energy Market Commission Australian Energy Market Operator Combined-cycle gas turbine Contracts for Closure Demand-side participation Energy Adequacy Assessment Projection Electricity Statement of Opportunities Gas powered generation Maximum demand Minimum Reserve Level Medium-term Projected Assessment of System Adequacy National Electricity Market National Electricity Rules National Transmission Network Development Plan Open-cycle gas turbine Projected Assessment of System Adequacy Probability of exceedence Power System Adequacy Two Year Outlook Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader
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M3
Abbreviation USE
M4
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GLOSSARY
Term Definition
The situation where customers vary their electricity consumption in response to a change in market conditions, such as the spot price. Document published by AEMO each year that provides supply and demand balance forecasts for each region for a 10-year outlook period. Before 2012, the ESOO included annual energy and maximum demand projections that are now published in the National Electricity Forecasting Report (NEFR). A tool used by AEMO to perform a quarterly assessment of energy limitation impacts in the NEM due to factors such as drought and fuel shortages. A generating unit that cannot operate at full capacity over the long term due to fuel or other energy source limitations. This refers to the ability to automatically control generation or load in response to deviations in power system frequency. AEMO ensures there is sufficient FCAS enabled at all times to maintain power system frequency within the Reliability Panels frequency operating standards. System standards determined by the Reliability Panel and published by the Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC), which specify the frequency levels for power system operation. The highest amount of electrical power delivered, or forecast to be delivered, over a defined period (day, week, month, season, or year) either at a connection point, or simultaneously at a defined set of connection points. A tool used by AEMO to perform a weekly assessment of the reserve capacity outlook for the next two years. The reserve margin required in a region to meet the Reliability Standard as calculated using 10% probability of exceedence (POE) scheduled maximum demand conditions. Document published by AEMO each year that provides annual energy and maximum demand projections for each region for a 10-year outlook period.
Energy limited
Maximum demand
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Glossary
G1
Term
Definition
A service identified in clause 3.11.4(a) (of the National Electricity Rules) which provides AEMO with a capability to control the real or reactive power flow into or out of a transmission network in order to: Network control ancillary service
Maintain the transmission network within its current, voltage or stability limits following a credible contingency event, or Enhance the value of spot market trading in conjunction with the central dispatch process.
Statistical likelihood that an estimate may be met or exceeded, and used to express long-term demand projections where a number of factors influence the actual outcome. For example, a 10% POE maximum demand projection is expected to be met or exceeded, on average, 1 year in 10. RPAS controls reactive power flows into or out of the transmission network, and can be provided by generating units (including wind farms) reactive power capacities, capacitors and reactors, synchronous condensers, static VAR compensators, and reactive power consumption controls. RPAS is a network control ancillary service (NSCAS).
Where AEMO enters into reserve contracts under the provisions of clause 3.20 of the National Electricity Rules in response to a power system reserve shortfall. The supply capacity available to a region in excess of the regions demand plus the minimum reserve level applicable to the region. Supply capacity includes generation and demand-side participation (DSP) within the region, and capacity available from other regions via interconnectors. The supply available to a region in excess of the regions demand (at any point in time).
Reserve capacity
Reserve margin
Supply accounts for generation within the region, demand-side participation (DSP), and capacity available from other regions via interconnectors. As defined by clause 4.2.4 of the National Electricity Rules (NER). The amount of energy that cannot be supplied due to insufficient generation capacity, demand-side participation (DSP), or network capability to meet demand.
Under the provisions of the Reliability Panel standard, each regions annual USE can be no more than 0.002% of its annual energy consumption. Compliance is assessed by comparing the 10-year moving average annual USE for each region with the Reliability Panel standard.
G2
Glossary
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