Conditional Probability, Bayes Theorem, and Independence

Conditional Probability Example

Household Survey on the plan of buying big-screen TV set. Sample Space = All Household Surveyed Event A: Actually purchased Event B: Subject plans to buy big-screen TV Interpret:
( A B' ) P

( A B )= P ( B A) P

( A ' B ) P
P AB

) )

P A B'

Probability that a household has the plan to buy and actually purchased. Probability that a household has actually purchased although there was no plan to buy. Probability that a household has not actually purchased although that there was a plan to buy big-screen TV set. Probability that a household has actually purchased given that there was a plan to buy big-screen TV set. Probability that a household has actually purchased given that there was no plan to buy big-screen TV set.

Law of Total Probability & Bayes Rule

Take events Ai for i = 1 to k to be:

Mutually exclusive:

Exhaustive:

For any event B on S

A i A j = 0 for all i,j A1 A n = S

P(B) = P(B A1 )P(A1 ) + + P(B A n )P(A n )

Bayes theorem follows

P(A j B) P(B) = P(B A j )P(A j ) P(A1 )P(B A1 ) + P(B A 2 )P(A 2 ) + ... + P(B A n )P(A n )

A1 A4

A2 B

A3 An

P(A j B) =

Example

Only 1 in 400 bulbs produced by Factory A is defective and 3 out of 600 bulbs produced by Factory B are defective
Factory A

ND= 99.75%=0.9975 D=0.25%=0.0025 Factory B, ND=99.5%=0.995 D=.5%=0.005 If one randomly tested bulb is defective, what is the probability that it is produced by Factory B?

Examine probabilities

P(A) = 0.40 P(B)= 0.60 P(ND|A) = .9975, P(D|A)= 0.0025 P(ND|B) = .995, P(D|B)= 0.005

Example

Only 1 in 400 bulbs produced by Factory A is defective and 3 out of 600 bulbs produced by Factory B are defective
Factory A

ND= 99.75%=0.9975 D=0.25%=0.0025 Factory B, ND=99.5%=0.995 D=.5%=0.005 If one randomly tested bulb is defective, what is the probability that it is produced by Factory B?

Examine probabilities

P(A) = 0.40 P(B)= 0.60 P(ND|A) = .9975, P(D|A)= 0.0025 P(ND|B) = .995, P(D|B)= 0.005

Assignment (Math 104)

1. An electronic fuse is produced by five production lines in a manufacturing operation. The fuses are costly, are quite reliable, and are shipped to suppliers in 100-unit lots. Because testing is destructive, most buyers of the fuses test only a small number of fuses before deciding to accept or reject the lots of incoming fuses. All the five production lines normally produce only 2 percent defective fuses, which are random dispersed in the output. Unfortunately, production line 1 suffered mechanical difficulty and produced 5 percent defectives during the month of March. This situation became known to the manufacturer after the fuses had been shipped. A costumer received a lot produced in March and tested three fuses. One failed. A) What is the probability that the lot was produced on line 1? B)What is the probability that the lot came from one of the four other lines? 2. The following table reflects the ending inventory of stocks of a certain distributor company. Name of # of boxes of # of boxes of # of boxes supplier Pineapple juice Orange juice Grape juice (Company) A 100 320 300 B 230 250 400 C 500 630 350 Based on the information given above, suppose that one box gets destroyed due to mishandling, find the probability that; a. Such box contained Orange juice. b. Such box contained Pineapple juice or supplied by company B. c. The box is supplied by Company C and contains orange juice. d. The box contained Pineapple juice given that it came from Company A. e. Suppose that the box contained grape juice, what is the probability that it was supplied by company C?

3. An oil company purchased an option on land in Palawan. Preliminary geologic studies assigned the following prior probabilities. P(high-quality oil) P(medium-quality oil) =0.50 =0.20

P( no high-quality oil or no medium-quality oil) = 0.75 P(no oil) Required: a) b) c) d) What is the probability of finding oil? What is the probability of finding no high-quality oil? What is the probability of finding no medium-quality oil? What is the probability of finding no oil and medium-quality oil? =0.30

4. Of the gadgets produced by company A 30% are black color, while 20% of the number of gadgets manufactured by company B are non-black and 15% of the number of gadgets produced by company C are colored black. If one gadget is selected at random, a. What is the probability that it is black given that the gadget is produced by company B? b. What is that probability that the gadget was produced by company B given that it is black color?