Political Economy of Climate Change in Pakistan Zulfiqar Shah Climate change has left a devastative impact on the Sindh

province of Pakistan, posing threats to its economic, social and security fabric. The scenario contains possibilities of worst long-lasting changes in the demography, ethnic security, life, and livelihood. More than 20 million people have already been displaced along with the loss of hundreds of billion dollars during the 2010-2011 floods. This is just a beginning of the climate theatre. Subtropical Sindh temperature averages fall between 46 C and 2 C. It has dry weather, although it receives rainfall from two systems the westerly monsoon from the Bay of Bengal in the Indian Ocean and the easterly rain system from the Himalayan northeast. The water requirement of Sindh has historically been fulfilled by the Indus floods. The last two decades were extremely dry due to scarce raining coupled with insufficient water discharge to the downstream Indus. Such a reduced flow was manmade because of water-theft by the upper riparian Punjab province through dams and water diversions channels. The situation kicked off an extensive ecological disaster in the Indus Delta region of the lower riparian Sindh. The Indus flood of 2010 and rain floods of 2011 were not only the exceptions due to the changing climate patterns but also a shock to the people who had been experiencing dryness and water scarcity for two decades, and thus, were unprepared for the suddenly changed situation and consequently, thrown into heavy humanitarian crises. Northern Sindh, the passage of the thermal equator, has extreme dry features. The highest temperature ever recorded in Sindh was 53.5 C at the archeological site of Mohen-jo-Daro on 26 May 2010, which was the fourth highest temperature on the earth; however this preceded the second highest of the region 52.8 C, which was also recorded in Sindh on June 12, 1919. Above 6,800 feet altitude, in the hill peaks of Kirthar temperatures mostly fall below the freezing point during December January; however, at the Indus plains, it occasionally drops to 0 C and once every 25 years it falls to 7 C. The globally changing climate has left more catastrophic impacts on Sindh than on any coastal area of South Asia. A remarkable change in the precipitation levels has been noted during 1970-2000, indicating above 9% annual increase in the southeastern parts of the province, above 70% increase in the northern parts, and a decline of 32% to 38% in Southwestern Sindh. According to a research study conducted by the author for Inter Church Organization for Development Coordination (ICCO) - Netherlands, the cultivation cycle as well as patterns change has debased the traditional agriculture calendar of the region, as the cropping calendar has now forwarded one month ahead. Increase in weather extremes coupled with the shortened autumns and springs; and undergoing erratic and unpredictable rainfall patterns has capsized living style, culture, and agriculture economy. A decreasing water table by 30% to 40% combined with soil degradation has caused a decline of 30% to 50% yield reduction in various crop pattern areas, although the use of agriculture inputs has increased over last two decades from 40% to 60%. Besides, reduction in the grass cover has caused decline in the quantity of livestock, which along with other factors like the dairy industry has caused a hike in dairy products. The impacts of changing climate have started altering social chemistry of the province.

Subsoil water table in the province stabilizes only during the exceptional floods and rainfalls. Cold weather intensity has perceptibly increased across the province; however, its duration has now become confined to an average period of one month, which earlier went on for two to three months. Biodiversity impacts of the climate change are visible through reduction of many species and the extinction of some. Rare species like jungle cats, tigers, wolves, jackals, gazelle and deer are almost extinct and herons, doves, ducks, grey and black partridges, waterfowls, peacocks, vultures, wild boars, deers and ibexes have decreased in numbers. Balm (populus euphratica), Siras (mimosa sivissa), and Pipal (ficus religiosa) are near to extinction, while Kandi (prosopis specigera), Babul (acacia arabica), and Kahu coverage has reduced. Insects like butterflies are near to extinction, meanwhile the reptiles like Cobra and Gharial (gavialis gangeticus), lizards, and vipers are soon to vanish. According to a research study on Climate Change carried out by the Oxfam GB - Pakistan, some traditional practices that were used to predict incoming sea storms and intense rainfall were the appearance of small bubbles in creek water, a bull let loose that then ran east, and seawater becoming cold. Communities would rely on these indicators to prepare themselves for intense storms. Now, however, they find that such indicators do not always manifest themselves and leave the communities unable to predict and prepare for changes in the weather. During 1970 -2000, an extensive sea intrusion was reported in the Indus Delta area that intruded upon nearly 2 million acres land. According to a study, approximately 158,000-acre cover of Mangrove forest turned into barren plains during the mentioned periodan area that catered almost 120,000 people of the Indus Delta area with fuel wood, gave fodder support to 16,000 camels and nurtured 44 fish species. The fish and shellfish catch from the Indus Delta was 348,689 metric tons in 1993 and was reduced to 64,400 metric tons in 2000 according to the Sindh Government. Fish, prawn, and lobster catches in the lakes of coastal Badin have shrunk due to sea intrusion. The climate change impacts on Sindh potentially turn it into a climate devastation zone of South Asia, with four major social, economic, and political dimensions: i. Migrations from rural Sindh to the urban hubs of Karachi, Hyderabad, and Sukkur put huge population pressure on cities that have inadequate infrastructure. In the case of Karachi, it may give birth to ethnic conflicts and riots in the already violence-ridden metropolitan. Besides, as expected according to the modulated predictions by International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the remarkable decline in the rainfall and increase in the dryness in Punjab during upcoming decades most possibly increases Sindh-ward migration from Punjab, which ultimately will cause a violent conflict between Sindh and Punjab within the federation of Pakistan. In the given situation, the ongoing forced exodus of Hindus from Sindh can also be seen in the future demographic interests of Punjab province in Pakistan. There may also be an increase in the interstate migrations towards India, Iran, and Afghanistan. The rural economy of Sindh will certainly face a huge decline, giving rise to vulnerable poverty and thereby altering the socioeconomic chemistry of the Sindhi-speaking majority.

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The feudal base of power will be reduced and a sociological anarchy caused by the climate change may take place by next decade combined by a large-scale displacement. Demographic changes in Sindh caused by decline in rural economy, reduction in agriculture output and displacements due to unpredictable Indus River and rain floods will leave deeper impacts on the political fabric of Sindh as well as Pakistan. Sharpened political conflicts along with a new political discourse will emerge containing both violent as well as reconciliatory aptitudes at the same time. The situation will challenge governance as well as the federal practices in the country. The concerns of provincial sovereignty of Sindh and Sindhi people will extensively emerge along with the entirely new paradigm of ethnic and demographic security in Pakistan. The ongoing water conflicts in Pakistan may convert into water wars between Sindh and Punjab province and may translate into ethnic violence between Sindhis and Punjabis.

The situation may have many adverse tendencies including water rights conflicts, food insecurities, IDPs rights issues, anarchy and state failure. The scenario requires a wider range of initiatives at the Sindh regional level combined with tangible actions at the federal level: 1. 2. 3. An extensive process of research regarding agriculture extension services, crop patterns, harvesting, seeds and soil as well as livestock and fisheries need be undertaken. Futuristic thinking over the utilization of rainwater and various sustainable irrigation methods need to be adopted. Pakistan needs to declare a Climate Emergency in Sindh, which may ultimately lead to new legal and policy framework through legislation that may include the framing of: a) Pakistan Water Act for sustainable and judicious use and interprovincial distribution of water; b) Sindh Water Act for the judicious and sustainable use and distribution of water between upper and lower riparian; c) Sindh Forrest Act for the forest preservation and reforestation and resisting all kinds of forest land grabbing; d) Pakistan Coastal and Sindh Shore Acts for sustainable costal livelihood regime; e) Pakistan Climate Change Act for long-term environmental policy integrated with the climate change situation; and finally f) Sindh Building Act for the disaster resistant construction and infrastructure development. An entirely new course of water management is required with special focus on the water preservations for dry seasons; water loss reduction; water treatment planning; improving water infrastructure; conservation of aquifer and water bodies as well as flood water utilization planning. A new framework of disaster management needs to be placed at federal, provincial and community levels based on minimizing tube well irrigation, eradicating illegal private structures near the riverbanks, disaster mitigation planning, fodder preservation planning during the floods, and improved flood management. Research bodies and institution focused on the climate change be established at federal and Sindh level and their coordination mechanism must be developed. The experts, scientists, and

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researchers should be provided with the necessary scientific training and access to the climate data. 7. Political parties, parliamentarians and bureaucracy should be often briefed on the climate change. Zulfiqar Shah is a researcher, analyst and activist. He is Executive Director at The Institute for Social Movements, Pakistan.