Review_16/08/13 - ( Rating - 0/15 ) Extreme Negative - High Risk - Rupee is Breaking Down / Nifty on verge of Breaking into Down

n trend (Stage 4) / AD is -ve / TRIN is -ve / Net 52 WK Hi/Low is -ve (--) Big Picture is Extremely Negative. | 0 is extreme -ve | 1 is -ve | 2 is Netural | 3 is +ve | 4 is extreme +ve | Indian Rupee - ( 0/4 ) Rupee has given a Fresh Breakout from Consolidation (Closing at Lifetime Highs) Consolidation was from 58.932 to 61.230 Demand Zone are at 60.725 & 60.366 Rupee's Breakout on All timeframes from Ascending triangle Pattern has Measured Move Target of 61.734.has been completed & As $ is at lifetime High v/s Rupee, $ has entered a new Bull Maket in Rupee Depreciation It is Notable that $ Index is at Demand Zone & $ is expected to Raise against all Currencies (Double Wammy for Rupee) Also With Growing Crises senerio Green Buck (has been considered to be the Hedge (Preferred Vehicle For Cash). (* Note : This time around, This Process is Going to Hurt the Instution the Most.Time will Prove this Historic Process would FAIL & set the Cat among the Pigeons & set the Finalcial world into a Hole. Nifty - ( 0/4 ) Move From 4500 (19-12-2011) to 5631 (22-02-2012) is Uptrend & there was retracement upto 4761 (61.8% Retracement) upto 05-06-2012 Market Restarted Uptrend from 4761 (05-06-2012) to 6110 (29-01-2013) There was correction from 6110 (29-012013) Upto 5477 (10-04-2013) After Entire Move from 5477 (10-04-2013) to 6229 (20-052013) There was Ongoing correction in Uptrend (as Higher Low is formed at 5570 on 25-06-2013 after Neckline of 5950 of Fresh H & S is Broken Measured Decline is upto 5700 (78.6 % Rectracement of 5477 to 6229) Lower High Lower Low Trend (Down Trend from 6229 (2005-2013) to 5565 (24-06-2013) Ended as 5684 ( 18-062013 ) Lower High is Broken on closing Basis Resulting into sideways Trend . Once 5474 is broken on Down side Down Trend will Set In.(Bank Nifty has Broken & is in Down trend Down move towards the Bottom of Side ways Trend, is Ferocious & Daily/Weekly Demand Zones of 5550.13 to 5474.97 is slated to be broke,Resulting into Down Trend.Demand Zone will Than act as Resistance Supply Levels are 1) 5755.28 to 5714.63 2) 5720.59 (5706) 5897 - 2) 5807 (5791) 5780 Demand Levels are 1) 5550.13 (5506.50) 5474.97 2) 5271.54 5712.28 3) 5128.09 5032.70 4) 4842.27 4770.73

Dimensions Price Major Trend line break from Historic Pivot lows of 2532 - 4534 - 4775 was threatned & break that is now under Threat on Daily & Weekly Time frame Volume Volumes are in increasing Trend.Nifty future added 27.12 lakh position in Open Interest and this accounts to 15.4 % of Total Open Interest in Aug series.The Nifty Aug series is trading at 2.85 Rs discount to Underlying .In Aug series In derivative cumulatively for all series contract Nifty future net added 29.68 lakh position in open interest and this accounts to 14.43 % of Total Open Interest in all series and cumulatively trading in average premium of 30.15 Rs to Underlying Indicators MCDA -Ve Trend RSI -Ve Trend Sentiments Sentiments are now negative as clear Down trend has emerged,There is Panick for getting out of Positions Risk Reward would be favourable on Sell Side. Earnings were mostly -ve are expected TIme After Previous F&O expiry (@ 5682 ) Nifty has now build huge Short Position / Rally.. As per Nifty's 56 Day Cycle Trend changed to up & than Reversed to Down side with Momentum (+56Days) ( Next Date 02-09-2013 )..... Mid month Reversal date of 14-08-2013 but Trend changed on 16-08-2013 & Breakdown was confirmed..... Quaterlies Settlement is on 3rd Friday of 20-09-2013..... Sideways trend is threatend after break of Demand at 5474.73 Bear Market downtrend has start after Nifty has closed below the Swing of 5955 (16-07-2013) Open Intrest (OI) Record updated for-.Aug/19/2013-NIFTY FUTURECMP(5505.0) is currently in SIDEWAYS trend.The open interest is also increasing with trend and discount of share is also increasing indicating down move At current price strike the activity is tilted to put side and ratio is still strong but addition of call is slightly increasing at 5600 level NIFTY PCR (Position Wise) - 0.98 & (Money Wise) - 1.71 P & F Chart Double Bottom Breakdown occurred on 0208-2013. There is Resistance at 5800 & Support at -- H & S Breakdown occurred at 5550.Sideways Trend BreakDown is 5500

Breadth Charts - ( 0/3 ) (Rating 1 for Each +ve) Advance Decline Line (0/1) If the Nifty is rising but the number of stocks advancing is dropping, then the trend is in trouble and may pause soon or even reverse. AD Line is Falling indicates Strength in Down trend But some Balance in AD needs to be achieved. Midcaps are Falling with Deciling Momentum ( After Recovery from Over Sold Levels ) But some Large caps & All Index Heavy Weights are Declining with Huge Momentum & Breakdowns Trader's Index (TRIN Chart) (0/1) To Incorporate Volume of Advance Decline Analysis - TRIN is unusual in that it moves opposite to the Nifty TRIN is a ratio where 1.0 means selling and buying pressure are equal TRIN BELOW 1.0 (More Volume in stocks that are advancing) & Above 1.0 (More Volume in stocks that are Declining SMA Trin is Between 0.9 & 1.0 indicatsStrength in Downtrend & space for more stocks to Decline,The series of Lower Highs is Intact & indicates -Ve strength NSE Net Monthly High & Low (0/1) More Stocks in the index making new highs versus new lows if Number is Reducing Trend is in Trouble.The Rising New Highs indicate Markets Buying pressure is accelerating (Environment & Trend) is Positive There is a downward slope as "Valleys of 52 week Highs" is Dropping With Down Trend Gaining strength The "Troughs of stocks Hitting 52 Week Lows" would increase

India Vix Volatility Index (or Fear Index or VIX) is a weighted measure of the implied volatility.Market Makers hedge the market Play, the Down Volume is always a factor & used in Direct Corelation with the VIX & They Together have Indirect corelation with Index ie Vix & DVol is Down; Market will move Up AND Vix & DVol is Up;Market will move Down.Indirect relation between Vix & DVOL leads to Sidewise Index VIX after Breaking out from the 18 level to a 52 week High of 23.64 ( Breaking out 52 WeekRange). Fear/ Volitality is increasing with Down Trend indicating strength in stage 4....Volume is also High....

Indian Bonds (0/4) Indirect Correlation with Stock Market; Money Flows from Bonds to Stock for Short term Maturity (Mkt Goes up) & Vice Versa. Shorter Period = Lower Rate (Controlled by Centeral Bank & Indirect relation to Stock Market) + Longer Period = Higher Rate (Controlled by Market) All Bonds have started upmove Down Trend has been Broken on Upside in all Bond Charts. 3 Year Rate is Higher than 30 & 10 Year Rate (Caution Money is Moving to Short term Bond Market from Share Market indicates Weekness in Economy & Flight to safety ) .. Correct Relation is 30Y ROI > 10Y ROI > 3Y ROI. Under Asset Rotation from Risk on (Equity Market) to Risk off (Bond Market - Security Backed by Govt) & with Devalution of Rupee the Dollar Outage is gaining strength ( Increase of Returns in 100% Govt secured Bonds).Also Yield Returns in India are more than corrosponding Bonds in Developed Markets. 10

30

A - Positive/Direct Corelation Between Bond Mkt (Long Term) = Forex (Individual Currency) Mkt = Stock Mkt B - Positive/Direct Corelation Between Commodity Mkt = Inflation (Status of Economy) = Bank Rate Negative/Indirect Corelation between A & B

Commodities (Negative Correlation) In Commodities Crude is moving Up on Egypts issues,After Break Down Gold has broken out on Upside out of Range 1250 to 1180 supports ... ( Equity Markets Rally has Dangers Due to Reduced Economic Growth (& Reduced Commodity Demand) & Geo Political Tensions are also increasing,Now Commodities are to Resume Down Trend as Major banks are set to Move out of Physical Commodity Markets. (Excess Supply Over Demand)

Currency Markets (Positive Coorrelation) Dollar is the Only Appriciating Currency but has Reached Demand Zone & Hence Some Currencies are Reaching Supply Zone. Japan Yen Aussie $ are Depriciating & Market are trying to Rebuild (Distribution ) after collapse has caused Panik across Globe after Fed's Hints at Liquidity Reversal (Market failed to Build Gains on Bad Reports & has Declined on Good Reports as it fuels Concern on Reduction in Liquidity (QE Reversal)..... Hence Global markets are in Risk Off Mode .. Currency War has Reached Phase II where Every Currency (Developed & Other Emerging Mkt Currencies ) are deprciating against $ to take advantage of invetment in safe Govt Secured Bond

World Markets (Positive Coorrelation) Chinese Recover is Slow with raised concerns on liquidity & Devalued Yunan & US Markets has weekly Breakdown (Markets are Distributing Stocks on Good News are now Ferouscliously Selling.Europe CAG DAX & FTSE have given Fresh Breaking Downs (Global Markets are Now at Resistance. Syncronisation in BreakDowns is seen after Creating Double Tops.Also Global Liquidity is Drying,interest Rates http://in.advfn are increasing ..All Equity Markets are on Risk OFF Mode .com/world

The Mighty 10 Index - Top Sector & Index weighted % Wise ( 0/10 ) Extremely Negative INDEX HDFC Breakdown from support from 200 SMA after Death Cross FINANCE ICICIBANK Death Cross 50SMA < 200SMA,Breaking from Long Term 10 Month Gap Support ENERGY RELIANCE Breakdown from Weekly Supplu Zone ( Confirmed H&S ) Death Cross awaited IT INFY Breakdown from Weekly Supply Zone but Price are above 200 SMA FMCG ITC Breakdown from (Double Top) Life Highs Now at Weekly Support AUTO TATAMOTORS Above 200SMA into Weekly Supply Zone, Death Cross awaited PHARMACEUTICALS SUNPHARMA Breakdown from Life Highs & Retest of Top Done (With Lower High) CAPITAL GOODS L&T Breakdown from Resistance at 50SMA & 200SMA METALS TATASTEEL At Life Lows Breaking down from Pullback CEMENT ULTRACEMCO Basing at Weekly support after Breakdown from 6 month Range & Death Cross NB: These notes are just personal musings on the markets, trends etc, as a sort of reminder to me on what I thought of them at a particular point in time. They are not predictions and none should rely on them for any investment decisions. Readers Discretion Expected. Advocate to Consult Your Financial Advisor before any Investment as Investment in any market may be Lost in its Entirety. Strictly for Entertainment Purpose Only.