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MINISTRY OF FINANCE OF REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA

DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF DEBT MANAGEMENT

Table of Contents
Chapter 1 Backgrounds, Debt Management Objective and Strategy, Debt Instruments, Legal Basis
1. 16.

Loan Disbursement 2013 - Project Financing

17.

Loan Disbursement 2013 - Project Financing (Chart)

Backgrounds (1)

2.
3. 4. 5. 6.

Backgrounds (2)
Debt Management Objectives and Strategy Debt Instruments (1) Debt Instruments (2) Debt Management: Legal Basis

Chapter 3 Debt Portfolio (Outstanding, Maturity Profile, Change in Securities and Loans Positions)
18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26.

Government Debt Outstanding 2008-2013 Government Debt Outstanding 2008-2013 (Chart) Debt Maturity Profile as of March 28,2013 Government Securities Outstanding 2008-2013 Loans Outstanding by Creditor Types Loans Outstanding by Creditor Types (Chart) Loans Outstanding by Economic Sectors Loans Outstanding by Economic Sectors (Chart) Government Debt Outstanding - Main Currencies

Chapter 2 State Budget, Deficit and Its Financing


7. 8.

State Budget (APBN) 20082013 Financing Cash flow 2008-2013

9.
10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15.

Fiscal Deficit and State Budget Financing, 2008-2013


Deficit in Various Countries 2008-2013 Budget and Realization of Debt Financing 2013 Realization of Government Securities Issuance 2013 Loans Drawing by Type of Financing, 2008-2013 Program Loan 2008-2013 External Loan Financing 2008 2013

27.
28. 29.

Government Debt Outstanding - Other Currencies


Government Debt Outstanding - by Currencies (Chart) Loans Drawing Proportion by Financing Type (Chart)

Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic Republik of Indonesia

Table of Contents
Chapter 4 Debt Portfolio Management Performance (Debt Performance Measurement and Comparison, Loan Disbursement, Government Debt Securities Re-profiling)
30. 31. 32.

Chapter 5 Costs of Borrowing (Debt Services, Cost of Fund, Yield Curve, External Debts Cost)
41. 42. 43.

Central Government Debt to GDP Ratio Debt to GDP Ratio, Indonesia & some Countries Maturity Profile of Tradable Securities as of March 28, 2013

Debt Services Realizations, Fiscal Year 2013 Debt Services Realizations, Fiscal Year 2013 (Chart) Interest Payment to Debt Ratio

44.
45. 46. 47. 48.

Interest Payment Realization


Terms and Conditions of Loan from Multilateral Terms and Conditions of Loan from Bilateral (Japan) Domestic Government Debt Securities Yield Curve Indonesian Global Bond Yield Curve

33.
34. 35. 36. 37.

Debt Switching and Buyback


Debt Reduction through Debt Swap Scheme Loans Disbursement Performance External Loan Services to Reserves Ratio Debt to GDP Ratio, Some Countries & The Changes

38.
39. 40.

Debt per Capita, of Some Countries


Debt per Capita, of Some Countries & The Changes Debt Risk Indicators, 2008-2012

Chapter 6 Performance of Secondary Market for Govt. Securities (Trading Volume, Govt. Securities Ownership Structure)
49.

Average Daily Trading of Domestic Govt. Securities

50.
51.

Government Debt Securities Ownership


Domestic Debt Government Securities Ownership

Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic Republik of Indonesia

Table of Contents
52.
53. 54. 55. 56.

Domestic Debt Government Securities Ownership ( in % )


Foreign Ownership of Domestic Government Securities by Tenor Spread over UST- Jan 18 Spread over UST- Feb 22 Spread over UST- Feb 42

60. 61. 62. 63. 64.

Indonesia Sovereign Credit Rating Performance (1) Indonesia Sovereign Credit Rating Performance (2) Government Guarantee Outstanding and Budget Allocation BPK Opinion on Government Financial Report Conclusion

Chapter 7 Rating, Government Guarantee, Supreme Audit Agency (BPK) Opinion, Conclusion
57. 58. 59.

Credit Rating of Indonesia Indonesia Credit Rating Performance (1) Indonesia Credit Rating Performance (2)

Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic Republik of Indonesia

Chapter 1 Background, Debt Management Strategy and Objective, Debt Instruments, Legal Basis

Kementerian Keuangan Ministry of Finance Republik Republic Indonesia of Indonesia

Background (1)
Debt management and policy is an integral part of fiscal policy which also constructs economic policy and management in general.
Ultimate objectives of economic management:

Welfare creation and maintenance in the form of:


Reducing unemployment. Alleviating poverty. Spurring more growth in the economy.

Security and stability enhancement.

Debt is materialized if state budget is in deficit. Deficit financing through debt has been perceived to be a standard approach in most of the countries in a modern world:

Debt is primary tool to fill fiscal gap and to refinance matured debts; Debt refinancing will end up with new and better debt profile in term of risk and fee.

Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic of Indonesia Ministry of Finance Republik Republic of Indonesia

Background (2)
Government debt, in nominal term, has increased due to:

Legacy debts that need to be refinanced; Inevitable effect of currency and banking crises in 1997/1998:

Exchange rate depreciation; Banking bail out and recapitalization; Part of proceed coming from asset recovery used for debt/banking recap securities repayment.

Fiscal deficit financing is also a result of political process and of political decision made by the Government and the Parliament, which is intended for:

Supporting fiscal stimuli through development activity in infrastructure, agriculture, energy, and another kind of pump priming project; Sustaining peoples welfare program such as PNPM, BOS, Jamkesmas, Raskin, PKH, subsidy; Supporting real sectors activity, for instance through tax incentive; Maintaining 20% of state budget to back up education sector; Enhancing army and defense system; Continuing bureaucratic reform.

Access to soft loans coming from multilateral donors has been restricted by:

Indonesia is no longer considered as low income country; How much upper limit of foreign loans can be received by an economy.

Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic of Indonesia Ministry of Finance Republik Republic of Indonesia

Debt Management Strategy and Objective


Objectives

Long-term :
Securing Government Budget debt financing needs at minimum cost and tolerable risk level, thus

fiscal sustainability can be maintained


Supporting efforts to develop a deep, active and liquid Government Securities market.

Short-term :
Ensuring the availability of funds to cover budget deficit and to meet debt repayment obligations in

a timely and efficient manner

General Strategies

optimizing potential sources of financing from domestic market through issuance of IDR denominated Government securities and domestic loan disbursement; developing debt instrument to obtain flexibility in selecting a more suitable, cost-efficient and minimum risk instrument; utilizing foreign loans to finance priority projects, at favorable terms & conditions for the Government, and without having any political agenda from creditors; maintaining the medium term policy of reducing the outstanding of foreign loan; improving coordination with monetary and capital market authorities, particularly to support the financial deepening; improving coordination and communication with various parties to enhance the efficiency of loan management and improve sovereign credit rating

Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic of Indonesia Ministry of Finance Republik Republic of Indonesia

Debt Instruments (1)


Government Loan consists of external and domestic loans:

External Loan World Bank, Asian Development Bank, Islamic Development Bank and bilateral donors (Japan, Germany, France, etc.) and Export Credit.
Program Loan: Intended for budget support. Its disbursement is a function of the realization of stated policy matrix aiming at the targets set up in MDGs scheme (poverty alleviation, education, and corruption eradication), people empowerment and also policy related with climate change and infrastructure development. Project Loan : To support infrastructure project in transportation, energy etc and also poverty alleviation project.

Domestic Loan

Government Regulation No. 54 Year 2008 on Domestic Loan Procurement Procedure and Domestic Loan Channeling; Coming from state-owned enterprise, local government and local state-owned enterprise; To finance policy related with the effort to support local industry, infrastructure project for public service and investment generating revenue project.

Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic of Indonesia Ministry of Finance Republik Republic of Indonesia

Debt Instruments (2)


Government securities (SBN) in local and foreign currency denominated,

tradable and non-tradable, fixed and variable: Government Debt Securities (SUN)

T-Bills: short-term (up to 1 year); Govt. Bond (> 1 year) Coupon Bond Tradable: ORI, FR/VR bond, Global bond Non tradable: SRBI for bank recap, bond issued for Bank Indonesias recap and restructuring of banking industry Zero coupon

Government Islamic securities/Sukuk (SBSN) in domestic and foreign currency denominated in the scheme of Ijarah, Musyarakah, Istisna, etc

Islamic T-Bills; IFR/Ijarah Fixed Rate; Global Sukuk; SDHI/Indonesian Haj Fund Sukuk; Project Based Sukuk (PBS).

Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic of Indonesia Ministry of Finance Republik Republic of Indonesia

Legal Basis
Laws and Regulations:

Law Number 17/2003 on State Finance Law Number 1/2004 on State Treasury Law Number 15/2004 on Inquiry of State Finance Management and Responsibility Law Number 19/2008 on Government Islamic Securities Law Number 24/2002 on Government Securities Government Regulation Number 10/2011 on External Loan Procurement Procedure and Grant Receipt Government Regulation Number 54/2008 on Domestic Loan Procurement Procedure and Domestic Loan Channeling

Setting up, among other things, good governance principle:


Debt cannot be separated from state budget and subject to the approval from parliament A good policy coordination (MoF, Ministry of Planning & BI) is essential for having sound debt management Close and efficient supervision on government securities trading activities in secondary market by the stock market authority Accountability and transparency in whole range of debt management span

Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic of Indonesia Ministry of Finance Republik Republic of Indonesia

Chapter 2 State Budget, Deficit and Its Financing

Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic Republik of Indonesia

State Budget (APBN) 20082013


[ in Trillion IDR ]

LKPP 2008 A. Revenues and Grants I. Domestic Revenues 1. Tax Revenues 2. Non Tax Revenues / II. Grants B. Expenditures I. Central Government a. Interest Payments - Domestic Currency - Foreign Currency b. Subsidies / II. Transfers to Regions C. / Primary Balance D. / Budget Surplus (Deficit) (A-B) E. Financing I. Debt II. Non Debt Financing Surplus (Deficit) 981.6 979.3 658.7 320.6 2.3 985.7 693.4 88.4 59.9 28.5 275.3 292.4 84.3 (4.1) 84.1 67.5 16.6 80.0

LKPP 2009 848.8 847.1 619.9 227.2 1.7 937.4 628.8 93.8 63.8 30.0 138.1 308.6 5.2 (88.6) 112.6 87.1 25.5 23.9

LKPP 2010 995.3 992.3 723.3 268.9 3.0 1,042.1 697.4 88.4 61.4 26.9 192.7 344.7 41.5 (46.8) 91.6 86.9 4.6 44.7

LKPP 2011 1,210.6 1,205.4 873.9 331.5 5.2 1,295.0 883.7 93.2 79.6 13.6 295.3 411.3 8.8 (84.4) 130.9 102.7 28.3 46.5

BUDGET-R 2012 1,358.2 1,357.4 1,016.2 341.1 0.8 1,548.3 1,069.5 117.8 84.7 33.0 245.1 478.8 (72.3) (190.1) 190.1 156.2 33.9 0.0

BUDGET 2013 1,529.7 1,525.2 1,193.0 332.2 4.5 1,683.0 1,154.4 113.2 80.7 32.5 317.2 528.6 (40.1) (153.3) 153.3 161.5 (8.1) 0.0

Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic Republik of Indonesia

Financing Cash flow 2008-2013


[ in Billions IDR ]

LKPP 2008
Financing Needs
Budget Deficit Debt Repayment

LKPP 2009
(236,975)
(88,619) (120,145)

LKPP 2010
(203,538)
(46,846) (135,893)

LKPP 2011
(245,479)
(84,399) (138,818)

BUDGET -R 2012
(386,124)
(190,105) (169,121)

BUDGET 2013
(342,312)
(153,338) (166,044)

(99,720)
(4,121) (108,958)

Bond Redemptions and Buybacks Foreign Loan Amortization Domestic Loan Amortization On Lending
Non Debt Financing Needs

(40,333) (63,435) (5,189)


13,359

(49,067) (68,031) (3,047)


(28,211)

(76,532) (50,633) (8,729)


(20,799)

(87,272) (47,323) (4,224)


(22,262)

(110,823) (49,725) (141) (8,432)


(26,898)

(100,421) (58,405) (250) (6,968)


(22,929) -904

Financing Sources
Debt

179,670
176,468

260,939
207,200

248,243
222,822

292,029
241,503

386,124
325,283

342,311
327,530

Government Securities Issuance, Gross Domestic Foreign Foreign Loan Disbursements Program Loans Project Loans to Central Government Project Loans On Lending Domestic Loan Disbursements
Non Debt

126,249 86,932 39,317 50,219 30,100 14,929 5,189 3,202

148,538 101,736 46,802 58,662 28,938 26,678 3,047 53,740

167,634 142,593 25,041 54,795 28,975 17,091 8,729 394


25,421

207,136 176,659 30,477 33,747 15,266 14,257 4,224 619


50,526

270,419 53,731 15,604 29,695 8,432 1,132


60,842

280,861 45,919 6,510 32,441 6,968 750


14,782 48750.7 (0) -0.1 153,338 161,486

Financing Surplus (Deficit) Net Financing Cash Flows


Net Debt

79,950 84,072
67,510

23,965 112,583
87,055

44,706 91,552
86,929

46,549 130,949
102,685

(0) 190,105
156,162

Government Securities Foreign Loans Domestic Loans Domestic Loans


Net Non Debt

85,916 (18,406) 16,561

99,471 (12,416) 25,528

91,102 (4,566) 394


4,622

119,864 (17,799) 619


28,264

159,596 (4,426) 991


33,943

180,440 (19,454) 500


(8,148)

Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic Republik of Indonesia

Fiscal Deficit and State Budget Financing 2008-2013


[Trillion Rupiah]
200 180 160 140 120 100

Since 2005, government securities have played role as a primary instrument of financing Refinancing strategy to achieve a better debt profile explains the movement of government securities in 2008-2013.
180

[ % to GDP]
4

120

160

60 40 20 0 (20)

86

91

80

99

17
(4)
(0.1)

26

28

34

5
-

(89)

(47)

(84)

(190)

(12)

(18)

(17)

(40) (60) (80) (100) (120) (140) (160) (180) (200)

(0.7)

(19)

(8)

(153)

(4)

(3)

(1.1)
(1.6) (2.2)

(1) (1.7) (2)

(3)

(4)

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012*

2013**

Securities (netto)

Domestic & Foreign Loan (netto)

Non Debt (netto)

Budget Surplus (Deficit)

Budget Deficit to GDP ratio (RHS)

Source: Ministry of Finance

Notes : 2008-2011 Audited * BUDGET-R 2012 ** BUDGET

Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic Republik of Indonesia

Deficit in Various Countries 2008-2013


6.0
4.0

2.0
0.0

-2.0
-4.0

-6.0 -8.0 -10.0 -12.0 -14.0 2008 Brazil Mexico 2009 China Russia 2010 2011 Indonesia United Kingdom 2012 Japan United States 2013

Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2012 & Ministry of Finance Notes : - in % to GDP - For Indonesia, Year 20082011 are the audited (LKPP) numbers, 2012 are APBN-P numbers and 2013 are the budget (APBN) numbers

Fiscal deficit in Indonesia is lower than other countries. Fiscal rule stated on Law Number 17/2003 has fixed upper limit of deficit in the level of 3% of GDP. In consequence, additional debt to finance fiscal deficit is also limited.
Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic of Indonesia Ministry of Finance Republik Republic of Indonesia

Budget and Realization of Debt Financing 2013


(in billion IDR)

No.
(1)

Description
(2)

Budget
(3)

Realization *) as of March 28, 2013 Nominal


(6)=(4)+(5)

rest of budget Nominal


(8) = (3) - (6)

%
(7) = (6) : (3)

%
(9) = (8) : (3)

A. 1

Expenditures Domestic Interest Payments


- Securities - Domestic Loans

113,243.8 80,703.3
80,613.2 90.1

26,348.5 18,865.0
18,865.0 -

23.3 23.4 23.4 23.0 14.5 30.5

86,895.3 61,838.3
61,748.2 90.1

76.7 76.6 76.6 100.0 77.0 85.5 69.5

External Interest Payments


- External Loans - Global Bonds / Securities in valas

32,540.5
15,216.2 17,324.3

7,483.4
2,208.2 5,275.3

25,057.1
13,008.0 12,049.0

B. I

II

Financing Domestic Financing A. Domestic Loans (Net) B. Net Securities External Financing (Net) 1. External Loan Disbursement (Gross)
a. Program Loan b. Project Loan 1. Central Government Project Loan 2. On Lending

500.0 180,439.9 (19,454.2) 45,919.1


6,510.0 39,409.1 32,440.8 6,968.3

24.5 40,011.7 (7,396.5) 1,746.4


37.7 1,708.7 1,246.1 462.6

4.9 22.2 3.8 0.6 4.3 3.8 6.6 6.6 14.9

475.5 140,428.2 44,172.7


6,472.3 37,700.4 31,194.7 6,505.7

95.1 77.8 96.2 99.4 95.7 96.2 93.4 93.4 85.1

2. On Lending (Spending) 3. External Loan Amortization

(6,968.3) (58,405.0)

(462.6) (8,680.2)

(6,505.7) (49,724.8)

Notes: *) Provisional - Securities issuance budget is tentative, depend on financing need in term of securities portfolio management
Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic Republik of Indonesia

Realization of Government Securities Issuance 2013


(in million IDR)

Description Gov ernment Securities-Net (Budget 2013) Gov ernment Securities Maturity 2013 Buyback Issuance Need* Gov ernment Debt Securities (GDS) Domestic GDS - ON - SPN - ORI International Bonds Gov ernment Islamic Debt Securities Domestic Government Islamic Debt Securities - IFR/PBS (- Islamic Fixed Rate Bond/Project Based Sukuk (IFR/PBS)) - SPN-S - SBSN Ritel - SDHI International Sukuk
* Adjusted by changes in Cash Management & Debt Switch

Target

Realization Nominal (as of March 28, 2013) 40.011.717 28.934.586 37.572 68.983.875 49.800.000 49.800.000 41.000.000 8.800.000

% Realization 22,17% 33,79% 1,25% 24,56%

180.439.900 85.620.835 3.000.000 280.860.735

19.183.875 19.183.875 4.215.000

14.968.875

Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic Republik of Indonesia

Loan Drawing by Type of Financing, 2008-2013


[in Trillions IDR]

TYPE OF FINANCING

LKPP/ LKPP/ LKPP/ LKPP/ Audited Audited Audited Audited 2012 * 2008 2009 2010 2011 50.22
4.59

Budget 46.42
4.99

2013 Real. As of March 28, 2013 Nominal % of Budget 1.77


0.18

TOTAL
in billion US$

58.66
6.24

55.19
5.51

34.37
3.79

31.95
3.35

3.8% 0.6%
0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

1. Program Loan
in billion US$ a. World Bank b. A D B c. JAPAN d. FRANCE e. IDB f. Others

30.10
2.75 12.91 9.17 4.87 2.20 -

28.94
3.08 14.65 5.06 6.07 2.79 -

28.97
3.22 15.34 6.39 4.59 2.73 -

15.27
1.68 10.76 3.63 0.87 -

14.98
1.57 8.61 5.80 0.57 -

6.51
0.70 4.65 1.86 -

0.04
0.00 0.04 -

2. Project Loan
in billion US$

20.12
1.84

29.72
3.16

25.82
2.87

18.48
2.04

16.05
1.71

39.41
4.24

1.71
0.18

4.3% 4.9%

3. Domestic Loan
in billion US$
*) Provisional (Unaudited)

0.39
0.04

0.62
0.07

0.93
0.07

0.50
0.05

0.02
0.00

Kementerian Ministry Kementerian of Finance Keuangan Keuangan Republic Republik Republik of Indonesia Indonesia

Program Loan 2008-2013


[ in Million USD]

2008 2009 2010 LENDERS Real


1,197 1,553 830 500 500 600 1,704 700 505 3,209

2011 Real
1,011 400 100 1,511

2012 Real
907 600 59 1,566

2013 Real - as of BUDGET March 28, 2013


500 200 700 3.9 3.9

A. WORLD BANK B. ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK C. JICA, JAPAN D. ISLAMIC DEVELOPMENT BANK TOTAL
Source : Directorate of External Debt and Grant

2,727 2,953

Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic of Indonesia Ministry of Finance Republik Republic of Indonesia

External Loan Financing 2008 - 2013


2008 70 50 30 45.0 2009 55.6 2010 2011 2012 45.3 29.5 2013*

46.1

39.0

[ in trillion IDR ]

10

-10
-30 -50 -18.4 -12.4

-4.6 -17.8 -47.3

-4.4 -19.5 -49.7 -58.4

-50.6 -70 -63.4 -68.0

-90
External Loan Disbursement, gross External Loan Principal Repayment External Loan Financing (nett)

[ in trillion IDR ] 2008 External Loan Disbursement, gross External Loan Principal Repayment External Loan Financing (nett)
Notes : *) Budget 2013
Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic of Indonesia Ministry of Finance Republik Republic of Indonesia

2009 55.62 (68.03) (12.42)

2010 46.07 (50.63) (4.57)

2011 29.52 (47.32) (17.80)

2012 45.30 (49.73) (4.43)

2013* 38.95 (58.41) (19.46)

45.03 (63.44) (18.41)

Loan Disbursement 2013 - Project Financing


BUDGET NEGARA Million USD Billion IDR Real. As of March 28, 2013 Million USD Billion IDR % to BUDGET

A. Int'l Organization WORLD BANK (IBRD & IDA) ADB IDB IFAD B. Country JAPAN GERMANY AUSTRIA FRANCE SINGAPORE SPAIN OTHERS
TOTAL 4,237.54 39,409.10

69.19 49.03 10.01 5.90 4.25 106.44 23.69 10.68 4.49 8.38 9.41 0.19 49.61
175.63

670.30 473.33 97.29 58.51 41.18 1,038.41 236.33 103.30 43.37 80.74 91.26 1.86 481.55
1,708.71

1.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 2.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 1.2%
4.1%

Kementerian Ministry Kementerian of Finance Keuangan Keuangan Republic Republik Republik of Indonesia Indonesia

Loan Disbursement 2013 - Project Financing (chart)


[ in billion IDR ] [ % of Project Loan ]

600
1.2% 1.2%

1.4% 1.2%

500 400 300 200


0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6%

1.0%
0.8% 0.6%
0.2% 0.2%

0.4% 0.2% 0.0%

100 -

Disbursement

% to Budget (RHS)

BUDGET NEGARA
TOTAL

Real. As of March 28, 2013 Million USD


175.63

Million USD
4,237.54

Billion IDR
39,409.10

Billion IDR
1,708.71

% to BUDGET
4.14%

Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic Republik of Indonesia

Chapter 3 Debt Portfolio (Outstanding, Maturity Profile, Change in Securities and Loans Positions)

Kementerian Ministry Keuangan Finance Republik Indonesia Ministryof of Finance Republic Republicof ofIndonesia Indonesia

Government Debt Outstanding, 2008-2013


2008 Central Govt. Debt Total (in trillion IDR) a. Loans (in trillion IDR)
1). External Loan Bilateral *) Multilateral **) Commercial ***) Suppliers ***) Others ***) 2). Domestic Loan
1,636.74 730.25 730.25 484.90 222.69 21.69 0.97 906.50 122.64 783.86 149.47

2009
1,590.66 611.20 611.20 387.92 202.37 20.24 0.66 979.46 143.15 836.31 169.22

2010
1,681.66 617.25 616.86 380.67 208.28 27.34 0.57 0.39 1,064.40 161.97 902.43 187.04

2011
1,808.95 621.29 620.28 381.66 212.96 25.15 0.50 1.01 1,187.66 195.63 992.03 199.49

2012#)
1,975.42 614.32 612.52 358.12 229.68 24.32 0.41 1.80 1,361.10 264.91 1,096.19 204.28

March 2013
Nominal

##

1,991.22 590.20 588.38 336.74 227.67 23.62 0.35 1.82 1,401.01 264.81 1,136.21 204.88

100.0% 29.6% 16.9% 11.4% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0%

b. Securities (in trillion IDR)


Foreign Currency Local Currency
Central Govt. Debt Total
(In billion US$) Consist of :

70.4% 13.3% 57.1% 100.0%

Local Currency Securities Foreign Currency Securities Local Currency Loan Foreign Currency Loan
Exchange Rate (IDR to US$1)

(in billion US$) (in billion US$)

71.58 11.20 66.69


10,950

88.97 15.23 65.02


9,400

100.37 18.02 0.04 68.61


8,991

109.40 21.57 0.11 68.40


9,068

113.36 27.39 0.19 63.34


9,670

116.91 27.25 0.19 60.54


9,719

57.1% 13.3% 0.1% 29.5%

(in billion US$) (in billion US$)

Notes : * Semi commercials included ** Some semi commercials included *** Commercials

#) ##)

Provisional Very Provisional


Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic Republik of Indonesia

Government Debt Outstanding, 2008-2013 (chart)


[ in Trillions IDR ]

2,000
1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 730 611 621 614 590

617

1,000
800 600 906 979 1,064 1,188 1,361 1,401

400
200 -

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012*)

2013**)

Loans
Year Loans Securities Central Govt. Debt Total 2008 730 906 1,637 45% 55% 100% 2009 611 979 1,591 38% 62% 100% 2010 617 1,064 1,682

Securities
[ in trillion IDR and % ] 2011 37% 63% 100% 621 1,188 1,809 37% 63% 100% 2012*) 614 1,361 1,975 31% 69% 100% 2013**) 590 1,401 1,991 30% 70% 100%

Notes : *) Provisional **) Very Provisional, As of March 28, 2013

Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic Republik of Indonesia

Debt Maturity Profile as of March 28, 2013


[in Trillions IDR] 160 140
120

55 53 42 49 45 41 43 40 35

30

100 80 60
95

25
108

18 21
56 44

13

88

85

75

69

77

40
61

82

7 8
8
47 31 33

1
3
21

59

47

15
33 22

29

5
2034 5

2
2036 10

37

20 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

43

43

2029 3

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2030

2031

2032

2033

2035

2037

2038

2039

1
2040-2055

Loans

Securities

Year Loans Securities Year Loans Securities

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 42% 37% 38% 40% 42% 32% 37% 33% 32% 22% 31% 39% 29% 41% 21% 58% 63% 62% 60% 58% 68% 63% 67% 68% 78% 69% 61% 71% 59% 79% 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 20% 74% 22% 21% 15% 18% 49% 12% 14% 3% 2% 6% 80% 26% 78% 79% 85% 82% 51% 88% 86% 97% 98% 94% 2040-2055 2% 98%

Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic of Indonesia Ministry of Finance Republik Republic of Indonesia

90

10

Government Securities Outstanding 2008 2013


GOVERNMENT SECURITIES A. Tradable 1. Rupiah Denominated a. Government Debt Securities (SUN) 1) T-Bill 2) Zero-coupon bond 3) Fixed Rate bond *) 4) Variable Rate bond b. Government Islamic Securities (SBSN) 1) Fixed Rate Islamic bond **) 2) T-Bill Syariah 2. Foreign Currency Denominated a. Government bond (million US$) b. Islamic bond (million US$) c. Government bond (million JPY) B. Non Tradable a. Promissory note to central bank b. T-Bill (Private Placement) c. Government Islamic Securities TOTAL GOVERNMENT SECURITIES (A +B)
Notes: - Nominal on billion IDR - +) Includes ORI - ++) Includes Sukuk Ritel - Exchange rate (IDR/US$1) - Exchange rate (IDR/JPY1) 10,950

Dec '08 648,335 525,695 520,995 10,012 11,491 353,558 145,934 4,700 4,700 122,640 11,200 258,160 258,160 906,495

Dec-'09 724,898 581,748 570,215 24,700 8,686 393,543 143,286 11,533 11,533 143,150
14,200 650 35,000

Dec-10 803,191 641,215 615,498 29,795 2,512 440,396 142,795 25,717 25,717 161,976
16,200 650

Dec-11 919,236 723,606 684,618 29,900 2,512 517,142 135,063 38,988 37,668 1,320 195,630
18,700 1,650

Dec-12 1,085,173 820,266 757,231 22,820 1,263 610,393 122,755 63,035 62,840 195 264,907
22,950 2,650

Feb-13 1,120,076 856,388 783,868 21,520 639,593 122,755 72,520 71,625 895 263,688
22,950 2,650

Mar-13 1,126,322 861,515 787,330 21,720 642,855 122,755 74,185 72,570 1,615 264,807
22,950 2,650

95,000 261,215
248,432 12,783

95,000 268,419
244,636 23,783

155,000 275,927
240,144 35,783

155,000 274,690
238,907 35,783

155,000 274,690
238,907 35,783

254,561
251,875 2,686

979,459

1,064,406

1,187,655

1,361,101

1,394,767

1,401,012

9,400 101.70

8,991 110.29

9,068 116.80

9,670 111.97

9,667 104.60

9,719 103.23

Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic Republik of Indonesia

Loans Outstanding by Creditor Types


[ in trillion IDR ]

AS of March 28, 2013 COUNTRIES 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Nominal EXTERNAL LOAN 1. BILATERAL a. Japan b. France c. Germany d. Other Bilateral 2. MULTILATERAL a. World Bank b. ADB c. IDB d. Other Multilateral 3. COMMERCIAL 4. SUPPLIERS DOMESTIC LOAN TOTAL*)
730.25 611.20

% Total 99.7% 57.1% 39.8% 3.6% 3.3% 10.4% 38.6% 20.7% 16.6% 0.8% 0.4% 4.0% 0.1% 0.3%
100.0%

730.25 484.90 324.28 27.86 37.80 94.96 222.69 98.16 118.99 2.81 2.73 21.69 0.97

611.20 387.92 259.50 25.56 28.34 74.52 202.37 94.96 102.32 2.96 2.13 20.24 0.66

616.86 380.67 274.47 21.88 22.65 61.68 208.28 102.23 100.40 3.76 1.89 27.34 0.57 0.39
617.25

620.28 381.66 280.45 20.90 20.29 60.02 212.96 108.73 97.92 4.23 2.09 25.15 0.50 1.01
621.29

612.52 358.12 254.64 21.30 20.00 62.18 229.68 122.14 100.34 5.05 2.14 24.32 0.41 1.80
614.32

588.38 336.74 235.16 21.03 19.43 61.12 227.67 122.38 98.24 4.93 2.12 23.62 0.35 1.82
590.20

*)

Notes : *) Global Bonds excluded.


Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic of Indonesia Ministry of Finance Republik Republic of Indonesia

Loans Outstanding by Creditor Types (chart)


100%

90%
80%

16%

17%

16%

16%

16%

17%

70%
60%

13%

16%

17%

18%

20%

21%

50% 40%
30%

20%
10%

44%

42%

45%

45%

41%

40%

0%

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

March 2013

Japan ADB

France IDB

Germany Other Multilateral

Other Bilateral COMMERCIAL

World Bank SUPPLIERS

Multilateral (World Bank, ADB) and Bilateral (Japan) external loan are long matured & relatively cheap financing sources alternatives
Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic of Indonesia Ministry of Finance Republik Republic of Indonesia

Loans Outstanding by Economic Sectors


[ in billion IDR ]

2008
Agriculture, Husbandry, Forestry & Fishing Mining & Drilling Manufacturing Electricity, Gas & Water Works Housing & Building Trading, Hotel & Restaurant Transport & Communication Financial, Leasing and Financial Services Services Other Sectors 17,683 8,801 29,121 74,873 122,039 10,510 29,814 96,005 167,009 174,391

2009
16,773 7,294 21,534 51,442 115,160 7,717 22,257 81,995 145,353 141,673

2010
19,946 7,620 19,946 53,408 113,448 6,990 21,476 86,422 153,544 134,452

2011
19,593 7,479 18,483 53,145 114,340 6,290 20,001 88,092 163,684 130,185

2012
13,881 5,671 14,916 43,607 95,764 5,276 17,516 57,559 237,653 122,479

2013 *)
16,594 6,566 13,796 46,029 105,784 4,969 19,173 96,825 163,707 116,762

TOTAL
Source : Ministry of Finance & Bank Indonesia

730,246

611,198

617,252

621,292

614,322

590,205

Notes : *) As of March 28, 2013 - Economic Sectors Classification by Bank Indonesia and National Statistics Agency - Financial Sector is program loan dominated
Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic of Indonesia Ministry of Finance Republik Republic of Indonesia

Loans Outstanding by Economic Sectors (chart)


Source : Ministry of Finance & Bank Indonesia
[ in billion IDR ]

250,000 200,000
167,009 174,391

163,684

237,653

153,544 134,452

150,000
122,039

145,353 141,673

130,185

122,479

163,707 105,784 95,764 5,276 17,516 57,559

115,160

96,005

16,773 7,294 21,534 51,442

19,946 7,620 19,946 53,408

19,593 7,479 18,483 53,145

10,510 29,814

7,717 22,257

6,990 21,476

6,290 20,001

13,881 5,671 14,916 43,607

16,594 6,566 13,796 46,029

50,000 -

17,683 8,801 29,121 74,873

81,995

86,422

88,092

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013 *)

Agriculture, Husbandry, Forestry & Fishing Manufacturing Housing & Building Transport & Communication Services
Notes : *) As of March 28, 2013

Mining & Drilling Electricity, Gas & Water Works Trading, Hotel & Restaurant Financial, Leasing and Financial Services Other Sectors
Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic of Indonesia Ministry of Finance Republik Republic of Indonesia

4,969 19,173

96,825

100,000

113,448

114,340

116,762

Government Debt Outstanding - Main Currencies


2008
in original currencies IDR*) USD**) JPY**) EUR**) SDR**) AUD**) Other Currencies in trillion IDR IDR USD JPY EUR SDR AUD Other Currencies Total
Mid Rate IDR to US$1 Mid Rate JPY to US$1 Mid Rate EUR to US$1

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013***

783.86 32.55 2,820.48 6.75 1.74 0.14

836.31 35.80 2,713.84 5.97 2.01 0.24

902.82 39.77 2,698.75 5.44 2.15 0.29

992.84 44.35 2,585.42 4.71 2.19 0.33

1,097.99 49.78 2,498.81 4.49 2.17 0.39

1,138.03 49.67 2,500.46 4.45 2.16 0.40

-------------------------- Other Currencies --------------------------

783.86 356.46 341.90 104.15 29.44 1.08 19.86 1,636.74


10,950.00 90.33 0.71

836.31 336.54 276.01 80.68 29.57 2.05 29.49 1,590.66


9,400.00 92.42 0.70

902.82 357.61 297.62 64.99 29.83 2.66 26.13 1,681.66


8,991.00 81.53 0.75

992.84 402.16 301.98 55.30 30.44 3.05 23.18 1,808.95


9,068.00 77.64 0.77

1,097.99 481.33 279.77 57.53 32.39 3.88 22.54 1,975.42


9,670.00 86.37 0.75

1,138.03 482.70 258.12 55.33 31.38 4.07 21.59 1,991.22


9,719.00 94.15 0.78

Notes : *) IDR Currency in Trillion IDR,

**) in Billions,

***) As of March 28, 2013


Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic of Indonesia Ministry of Finance Republik Republic of Indonesia

Government Debt Outstanding - Other Currencies


2008
in original currencies ACU*) ADB*) CAD*) CHF*) CNY*) DKK*) GBP*) KRW*) KWD*) SAR*) WBD*) in trillion IDR ACU ADB CAD CHF CNY DKK GBP KRW KWD SAR WBD TOTAL

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013**

0.02 0.20 0.18 0.38 0.00 0.07 0.58 168.47 0.01 0.14 0.00 0.38 2.19 1.60 3.94 0.00 0.15 9.15 1.46 0.59 0.41 0.00 19.86

0.20 0.16 0.17 0.33 0.00 0.06 0.51 184.82 0.01 0.13 1.12 2.90 1.50 1.49 3.02 0.00 0.10 7.69 1.49 0.43 0.32 10.56 29.49

0.27 0.14 0.16 0.30 1.43 0.05 0.46 184.32 0.01 0.12 0.71 3.69 1.30 1.41 2.83 1.94 0.08 6.36 1.47 0.37 0.28 6.39 26.13

0.30 0.13 0.15 0.27 1.55 0.05 0.41 196.63 0.01 0.11 0.42 4.22 1.16 1.31 2.62 2.23 0.07 5.77 1.54 0.20 0.26 3.78 23.18

0.34 0.11 0.14 0.24 1.55 0.04 0.36 205.44 0.01 0.10 0.21 5.05 1.06 1.35 2.55 2.38 0.07 5.66 1.86 0.30 0.26 1.99 22.54

0.34 0.10 0.14 0.24 1.55 0.04 0.36 212.59 0.01 0.10 0.17 4.93 0.99 1.33 2.45 2.40 0.07 5.33 1.86 0.30 0.26 1.67 21.59

Notes : *) in Billions,

**) As of March 28, 2013


Kementerian Ministry Keuangan Finance Republik Indonesia Ministryof of Finance Republic Republicof ofIndonesia Indonesia

Government Debt Outstanding by Currencies (chart)


100% 90% 80% 70% 60%
50% 40% 30% 21% 21%
1% 2%
2% 2% 2%

1% 2%

1% 2%

1% 2%

6%

5%

4% 18%

3% 17%

3%
14%

3% 13%

2%

21%

17%

22%

24%

24%

22%

48% 20% 10% 0%


2008
IDR USD

53%

54%

55%

56%

57%

2009
JPY

2010
EUR

2011
SDR

2012
AUD

2013*)
Others

Notes : *) As of March 28, 2013


Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic Republik of Indonesia

Loans Drawing Proportion by Financing Type


[ in trillion IDR]
40 35 30 25 20 15

[%]
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

23.54

25.82

28.57

15.27

28.97

10 5 -

18.48

15.60

38.13

6.51

39.41
2013***
DOMESTIC LOAN

2009*
PROGRAM LOAN

2010*

2011**
PROJECT LOAN % PROJECT LOAN (RHS)

2012**

% PROGRAM LOAN (RHS)

% DOMESTIC LOAN (RHS)


[in trillion IDR]

TYPE OF LOANS PROGRAM LOAN PROJECT LOAN DOMESTIC LOAN TOTAL


Notes : *) LKPP - Audited **) Provisional ***) Budget 2013

2008*

2009*

2010*

2011*

2012**

2013***

0.75

30.10 60% 20.12 40% 50.22 0%

28.94 49% 29.72 51% 58.66 0%

28.97 53% 25.82 47% 0.39 1% 55.19

15.27 44% 18.48 54% 0.62 2% 34.37

15.60 28% 38.13 69% 1.13 2% 54.86

6.51 14% 39.41 84% 0.75 2% 46.67

Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic of Indonesia Ministry of Finance Republik Republic of Indonesia

Chapter 4

Debt Portfolio Management Performance (Debt Performance Measurement and Comparison, Loan Disbursement, Government Debt Securities Re-profiling)

Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic Republik of Indonesia

Central Government Debt to GDP Ratio


[ in Trillions IDR] 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2008
Loans

[ %] 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0%


33.0%
28.3%

26.1% 16.5%
9.6%

23.1% 24.4%

30.0% 20.0% 10.0%

18.3%
14.7%

24.0%
16.5%

17.4%

16.0% 8.4%

16.6% 6.4%

10.9%

7.5%

0.0% 2009 2010


Securities

2011
GDP

2012*)

2013**)

Loan to GDP Ratio (RHS)

Securities to GDP Ratio (RHS)

Total Debt to GDP Ratio (RHS)

[ in trillions IDR ]

Loans Securities Total GDP


Notes : *) Provisional **) BUDGET 2013

2008 730 906 1,637 4,954

2009 611 979 1,591 5,613

2010 617 1,064 1,682 6,443

2011 621 1,188 1,809 7,427

2012*) 614 1,361 1,975 8,242

2013**) 595 1,542 2,137 9,270

Sources: Ministry of Finance and National Statistics Agency, processed data

Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic Republik of Indonesia

Debt to GDP Ratio,


Indonesia & some Countries
Country Argentina Brazil Germany India Indonesia Italy (RHS) Japan (RHS) Turkey United Kingdom United States 2008 58.5 63.5 66.9 74.1 33.0 105.7 191.8 40.0 52.2 76.1 2009 58.7 66.9 74.7 74.2 28.3 116.0 210.2 46.1 68.0 89.7 2010 49.2 65.2 82.4 68.0 26.0 118.6 215.3 42.4 75.0 98.6 2011 44.9 64.9 80.6 67.0 24.4 120.1 229.6 39.3 81.8 102.9 2012 45.2 64.1 83.0 67.6 24.0 126.3 236.6 37.7 88.7 107.2

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2012 & Ministry of Finance

Notes : - Nominal in % to GDP - Indonesia data: taken from audited Government Financial Statements

The debt rises of Developed Countries are greater than those of Developing Countries
Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic Republik of Indonesia

Maturity Profile of Tradable Securities


as of March 28, 2013
100,00

80,00

60,00

40,00

20,00

TOTAL SUKUK USD

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2030 2031 2032 2033 2035 2036 2037 2038 2041 2042
52,62 77,80 77,16 66,67 49,63 76,62 56,50 69,11 60,18 91,71 42,45 18,01 28,02 19,61 44,28 39,82 25,68 27,10 42,80 28,65 15,55 4,11 2,17 6,32 7,34 9,72 8,66 0,25 9,72 1,22 1,55 2,88 2,18 4,11 18,96 14,97 1,17 29,72 35,12 13,55 33,87 8,74 -

SUKUK IDR SUN JPY SUN USD SUN IDR

8,75

9,72

3,61

6,19

6,19

15,55 -

6,40

21,87

22,35 9,72

18,47 19,44 19,44 24,30 19,44

14,58 19,44

50,45 41,79 48,48 42,95 38,74 39,78 33,45 43,22 35,88 55,14 42,45 18,01 26,47 19,61 41,40 39,82 23,50 27,10 42,80 28,65

15,69 13,55 12,00

Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic Republik of Indonesia

Debt Switching and Buyback


Debt Switching : debt management program to reduce refinancing risk
Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total Auction Frequency 1 12 9 2 6 6 4 4 1 Tenor of Source Bonds (Year) < 1 year s.d. 4 year < 1 year s.d. 5 year < 1 year s.d. 6 year < 1 year s.d. 4 year < 1 year s.d. 5 year < 1 year s.d. 8 year < 1 year s.d. 4 year < 1 year s.d. 5 year < 1 year s.d. 5 year Destination Bonds (Yaer) 15 year 5 s.d. 19 year 11 s.d. 20 year 14 s.d. 15 year 12 s.d. 15 year 10 s.d. 21 year 15 year 10 s.d. 15 year 10 year Volume of Bid Accepted (billion IDR) 5,673 31,179 15,782 4,571 2,938 3,920 664 11,859 616 77,202

Buyback : debt management program which objectives are stabilizing the market, managing portfolio of debt and reducing Government Debt Securities outstanding which issued with high coupon
Ye a r 2003 2004 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Tota l Auction Fre que ncy 2 1 4 2 3 2 13 10 6 1 Te nor of Se rie s to be Buyba ck (Ye a r) 1 year up to 3 year 3 year up to 5 year < 1 year up to 4 year <1 year up to 5 year < 1 year up to 19 year < 1 year < 1 year up to 4 year < 1 year up to 20 year < 1 year up to 5 year 10 tahun Volume of Buyba ck Acce pte d (billion IDR) 8.127 1.962 5.158 2.859 2.375 8.528 3.201 3.500 1.138 38 36.885
Ministry Ministryof ofFinance FinanceRepublic Republicof ofIndonesia Indonesia

Debt Reduction through Debt Swap Scheme


[in Millions]
Project Country
1

Cancelation Amount
4

Debt Swap
2

Title
3

Commitment
5

Realization
6

Germany Debt Swap I Debt Swap II Debt Swap IIIa Debt Swap IIIb Debt Swap IV Debt Swap V Debt Swap VII Italy USA Debt Swap I

Elementary Education Junior Secondary Education

EUR EUR

12.8 EUR 11.5 EUR 6.3 EUR 6.3 EUR 10.0 EUR 25.0 EUR 9.4 EUR 5.7 EUR 24.2 USD 20.0 USD 23.8 USD 37.5 AUD 87.0 EUR 68.0 USD 37.5 AUD 218.2

25.6 EUR 23.0 EUR 12.5 EUR 12.5 EUR 20.0 EUR 50.0 EUR 18.8 EUR 5.7 EUR 24.2 USD 29.9 USD 29.5 USD 75.0 AUD 168.0 EUR 83.6 USD 75.0 AUD 376.6

25.6 23.0 3.2 0.0 20.0 50.0 0.0 5.7 24.2 15.7 8.1 15.6 127.5 48.0 15.6 227.2
*)

Financial Assistance for Environmental Investements EUR for Micro and Small Enterprises Project Strengthening the Development of National Parks in Fragile Ecosystems School Reconstruction and Rehabilitation in Earthquake Area in Yogyakarta and Central Java EUR EUR

Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tubercolosis and Malaria EUR (GFATM) Indonesian - German Scholarship Program Housing and Setlement EUR EUR USD USD USD AUD EUR TOTAL USD AUD TOTAL in million USD

Debt Development Swap Tropical Forest Conservation Act/TFCA Debt Development Swap Tropical Forest Conservation Act/TFCA II Debt2Health

Australia Debt Swap

Notes : *) TFCA - GoI contribution is USD 20 millions - Contribution from NGO Conservation Int'l Foundation & Kehati is USD 2 millions - Future cancellation is USD 29,921,500 (principal + interest)

Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic Republik of Indonesia

Loans Disbursement Performance


[in Trilions IDR] 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

Net Commitment

Disbursement

Undisbursed

[in trillion IDR] Year Net Commitment Disbursement Undisbursed Cumulative 1967 to 2007 1,711.8 1,620.9 90.9 2008 55.2 52.8 2.4 2009 143.9 91.7 52.2 2010 197.0 129.3 67.8 2011 239.8 146.0 93.8 2012 326.4 159.1 167.3 2013 335.6 160.6 175.0 Cumulative 1967 to 2013 2,047.5 1,781.5 265.9

Notes : - Nominals between 2008 until 2013 have been cumulatively calculated since January 1, 2008. - Net commitment = signed loans; disbursement = disbursed loans.
Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic of Indonesia Ministry of Finance Republik Republic of Indonesia

External Loan Services to Reserves Ratio


20.0%
18.0%

17.9% 16.8%

16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013** 9.0%
7.4%

7.9%

8.7%

Notes: External Loan Services = Ext. Loan Principal + Ext. Loan Interest Payments * provisional, based on assumption: 1) ext loan services nominal = realizations as of end of period , 2) reserves nominal = averages of reserves nominal from the beginning of year until the end of period.
Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic Republik of Indonesia

Debt to GDP Ratio,


Some Countries & The Changes
Indonesian debt per capita is among the lowest compared to those of developed countries with the fastest/biggest decrease
Public Debt, 2012 (in % of GDP)
0 50 100 150 200 250
Indonesia Australia Turkey Philippines Colombia Chile Thailand South Africa Brazil India Poland
Malaysia

Public Debt, changes 2003-2012 (in % of GDP)


-100 -50 0 50 100

Chile Indonesia Australia Colombia Turkey South Africa Philippines Thailand Malaysia Poland Brazil India Germany United Kingdom United States Italy Japan

Italy Germany Japan United States United Kingdom

Source: IMF
Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic Republik of Indonesia

Debt per Capita of Some Countries


China and India have higher ratios despite the more populations compared to Indonesia. Brazil and Italy with investment grade rating have higher ratios compared to Indonesia of noninvestment grade rating
In US Dolar
120,000

In US Dolar
8,000 7,000

100,000 6,000 80,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 40,000 2,000 20,000 1,000 0 2007 Brazil 2008 Poland Chile 2009 India 2010 Philippines 2011 Indonesia 2012 Japan (RHS) 0 60,000

Source: IMF

Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic of Indonesia Ministry of Finance Republik Republic of Indonesia

Debt per Capita,


Some Countries & The Changes
Indonesian debt per capita is among the lowest and it is considered to fluctuate insignificantly
Public Debt per Capita, 2012 (in US$) Public Debt per Capita, changes 2003-2012 (in %)

Japan United States United Kingdom Poland Brazil Malaysia Turkey South Africa Colombia Thailand Chile Philippines India Indonesia Source: IMF

United Kingdom Brazil India Poland Malaysia Colombia Chile United States Thailand Japan South Africa Turkey Indonesia Philippines 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 0% 100% 200% 300%

Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic Republik of Indonesia

Debt Risk Indicators,2008-2012


Interest Rate Risk
28.2

Exchange Rate Risk


25.9 22.4 52.1 47.4

28.2 22.0 20.3

26.1 18.8

22.9

46.2

45.1

44.4

16.1 17.2

13.4

12.1

11.0

10.6

2008

2009

2010

2011
Refixing rate [%]

2012

2008

2009
FX Debt to GDP ratio (%)

2010

2011

2012

Variable rate ratio [%]

FX Debt to total debt ratio (%)

Average Time To Maturity (ATM)


10.0
9.7 9.5 9.3 9.7

Debt Maturing in 1, 3 and 5 Years


31.1
18.6

33.2

34.2

34.6 22.7

32.4
21.5

20.3

20.8

6.4

7.6

7.1

8.2

7.2

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2008

2009

2010
Average Time to Maturity

2011

2012

Maturity debt portion < 1 year (%) Maturity debt portion < 5 year (%)

Maturity debt portion < 3 year (%)

Notes: *) The 2012 projection figures are based on realization per December 2012. Source: Ministry of Finance
Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic Republik of Indonesia

Chapter 5

Costs of Borrowing (Debt Services, Cost of Fund, Yield Curve, External Debts Cost)

Kementerian Ministry Keuangan Finance Republik Indonesia Ministryof of Finance Republic Republicof ofIndonesia Indonesia

Debt Services Realizations


Fiscal Year 2013
[ in billion Rupiah ]

Payment Realization *) Budget January I. POKOK A. PINJAMAN a. Pinjaman Dalam Negeri b. Pinjaman Luar Negeri B. SURAT BERHARGA NEGARA 1. SBN Rupiah a. SUN b. SBSN 2. SBN Valas a. SUN b. SBSN II. BUNGA A. PINJAMAN a. Pinjaman Dalam Negeri b. Pinjaman Luar Negeri B. SURAT BERHARGA NEGARA 1. SBN Rupiah a. SUN b. SBSN 2. SBN Valas a. SUN b. SBSN III. TOTAL POKOK + BUNGA 186,464 58,655 250 58,405 127,809 123,809 109,025 14,784 4,000 4,000 113,244 15,306 90 15,216 97,937 80,613 70,543 10,070 17,324 15,904 1,420 299,708 7,882 2,915 2,915 4,968 4,968 4,966 2 10,686 802 802 9,883 7,547 6,918 629 2,337 2,337 18,568 February 15,535 2,210 2,210 13,325 13,325 5,250 8,075 5,863 689 689 5,174 4,692 3,407 1,285 483 483 21,398 March 14,894 3,556 3,556 11,338 11,338 11,338 9,800 717 717 9,083 6,627 5,852 775 2,456 2,456 24,693 Q-1 38,311 8,680 8,680 29,630 29,630 21,554 8,076 -

% to Budget Total 38,311 8,680 8,680 29,630 29,630 21,554 8,076 -

20.55% 14.80% 0.00% 14.86% 23.18% 23.93% 19.77% 54.63% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 23.27% 14.43% 0.00% 14.51% 24.65% 23.40% 22.93% 26.70% 30.45% 33.17% 0.00% 21.57%

26,348 2,208 2,208 24,140 18,865 16,177 2,688 5,275 5,275 64,659

26,348 2,208 2,208 24,140 18,865 16,177 2,688 5,275 5,275 64,659

Notes : - Provisional, realization as of March 28, 2013

Kementerian Ministry Keuangan Finance Republik Indonesia Ministryof of Finance Republic Republicof ofIndonesia Indonesia

Debt Services Realizations


Fiscal Year 2013 (Chart)
140,000 30%

120,000

25%

25%

127,809 100,000

23%

97,937

20%

in Billion IDR

80,000 15% 60,000


58,655

14%

15%

10% 40,000 29,630


24,140

20,000 8,680 A. LOAN PRINCIPAL B. SECURITIES A. LOAN INTEREST B. SECURITIES


15,306

5%

2,208 0%

Budget

Realization *)

% to Budget (RHS)

Notes : - Provisional, realization as of March 28, 2013


Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic of Indonesia Ministry of Finance Republik Republic of Indonesia

Interest Payment to Debt Ratio


12% 10% 8.7% 8% 7.6% 7.4% 6.7%

6% 4%
2% 0% 2008 to Revenues 2009 2010 to Expenditures 2011

6.2%

5.5%

1.4% 1.2%
2012 to Total Debt 2013* to GDP

to Revenues to Expenditures to Total Debt to GDP

2008 9.0% 9.0% 5.8% 1.8%

2009 11.0% 10.0% 5.8% 1.7%

2010 8.9% 8.5% 5.4% 1.4%

2011 7.7% 7.2% 5.3% 1.3%

2012 8.7% 7.6% 6.2% 1.4%

2013* 7.4% 6.7% 5.5% 1.2%

Notes : - LKPP - Audited *) provisional, based on Budget 2013 assumption.


Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic Republik of Indonesia

Interest Payment Realization


100% 90%

80%
70% 60% 50% 40%

68%

68%

70% 85%

72%

71%

30% 20%
10% 0%

32%
2008

32%
2009

30% 15%
2010 2011

28%
2012*

29%
2013**

Domestic Debt Interest Payment

External Debt Interest Payment

[in trillion IDR ]

Debt Interest Payment a. Domestic Debt Interest Payment b. External Debt Interest Payment
Notes : -LKPP - Audited *) Provisional -**) Budget 2013

2012* 2013** Nml % Nml % Nml % Nml % Nml % Nml % 88.43 100.00 93.78 100.00 88.38 100.00 93.20 100.00 117.79 100.00 113.24 100.00 59.90 67.74 63.76 67.98 61.4 69.47 79.60 85.41 84.75 71.95 80.70 71.27 28.53 32.26 30.03 32.02 27.0 30.53 13.60 14.59 33.04 28.05 32.54 28.73

2008

2009

2010

2011

Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic Republik of Indonesia

Terms and Conditions of Loan from Multilateral


Multilateral

Description
Loan Maturity Grace Period Repayment Period Commitment Charge Front End Fee Service Charge Interest Rate/ Mark-up ***)

IBRD-WB
24.5 years 9 years 15.5 years 0.25% -

IFAD
15-18 years 3 years 12 years -

IDB
14-20 years 3-5 years 9-16 years -

ADB-OCR
up to 32 years up to 8 years 5-27 years 0.15% LIBOR + 0,40%

LIBOR + 1.0% (Fixed Spread) LIBOR + 0.48% (Variable Spread)

LIBOR (swap) + 1.35%


IFAD Referenc e Rate (Semester I 2012= 1.39%)

*)

ALM 13 years = Nil **) 13 years< ALM 16 years = 0.10 % p.a

Maturity Premium

**) 16< ALM < 19 years = 0.20% p.a **)

*) for negotiations held on and / or after July 1, 2011 **) for negotiations held on and / or after April1, 2012 ***) Mark-up = margin (IDB Loan) ALM = Average Loan Maturity

Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic Republik of Indonesia

Terms and Conditions of Loan from Bilateral (Japan)


Bilateral Jepang/ Japan (JICA) General terms Description Loan Maturity Grace Period Repayment Period Commitment Charge Front End Fee Service Charge Interest Rate
(for non c onsultant servic es) 1,40% 0,95% 0,80% 0,65% 0,55% 0,50% 0,40% 0,20% 0,10% S t a nda rd O ption1 O ption2

Prefential terms
S t a nda rd O ption1 O ption2 O ption3

STEP
S t a nda rd O ption

25 years 7 years 18 years

20 years 6 years 14 years

15 years 5 years 10 years

40 years 10 years 30 years

30 years 20 years 10 years 20 years 0,1% 6 years 14 years

15 years 5 years 10 years

40 years 10 years 30 years

30 years 10 years 20 years

Interest Rate
(for c onsultant servic es) 0,01%

Maturity Premium

Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic Republik of Indonesia

Domestic Government Debt Securities Yield Curve


[%]
Des '12 Des '11 Des '10 Des '09 28 Mar '13

12

10

Tenor 1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y

28 Mar '13 Des '12 4,24 4,44 4,65 4,84 5,05 5,13 5,24 5,55 6,28 6,50 6,51 3,96 4,32 4,52 4,63 4,65 4,88 4,98 5,15 5,87 6,24 6,34

Des '11 4,35 4,92 5,22 5,24 5,35 5,45 5,83 5,96 6,56 7,02 7,26

Des '10 5,36 5,82 6,27 6,34 6,78 6,96 7,16 7,57 8,78 9,24 9,68

Des '09 6,72 7,61 8,23 8,75 8,80 9,06 9,24 10,04 10,64 10,72 10,97

7Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 30Y

4 1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 30Y

Declining cost of fund of Domestic Government Securities reflects increasing market confidence as a response of prudent fiscal policy and debt management.
Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic Republik of Indonesia

Indonesian Global Bond Yield Curve


[%]
12

10

Dec-08

Dec-09

Dec-11 2,707 2,991 3,079 3,374 3,515 3,899 3,955 3,97 5,044 5,201

4
Dec-08 Dec-09

Dec-11 Dec-12 28-Mar-13

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 15 16 17 18 19 20 25 26 27 28 29 30

1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y 20 Y 25 Y 30 Y

8,642 9,057 9,925 9,385

4,188 4,387 4,886 5,107 5,255 5,346 6,731 6,806

Dec-12 1,416 1,421 1,647 1,965 2,141 2,448 2,666 2,826 2,902 4,268 4,297 4,235

28-Mar-13 0,979 1,581 1,979 2,327 2,905 2,994 3,132 3,439

9,662 9,321

4,846 4,942 4,806

Kementerian Ministry Keuangan Finance Republik Indonesia 42 Ministryof of Finance Republic Republicof ofIndonesia Indonesia

Chapter 6

Performance of Secondary Market for Government Securities (Trading Volume, Government Securitiess Ownership Structure)

Kementerian Ministry Keuangan Finance Republik Indonesia Ministryof of Finance Republic Republicof ofIndonesia Indonesia

Average Daily Trading of Domestic Government Securities


[in IDR Trillion]

[Frequency]

14.0 13.0 12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0

Positive trend on average daily trading activity shows increasing market liquidity

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

J FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ J ASOND J FM 2007 2008
Average Daily Volume per Month

2009

2010
Average Daily Volume per Year

2011

2012
Frequency - RHS

2013

Kementerian Ministry Keuangan Finance Republik Indonesia Ministryof of Finance Republic Republicof ofIndonesia Indonesia

Government Debt Securities Ownership


[IDR trillion]
900 50,00%

More diversified investor base which demonstrated by


800

increasing ownership from non-bank, foreign and retail investor.


Increasing offshore ownership indicates better market

45,00%

700

40,00%

confidence.
600

35,00%

30,00%
500

25,00% 400 20,00%


300 15,00%

200

10,00%

100

5,00%

Agust'04

Apr'09

Agust'11

BANK

NON-BANK

% Foreign to Total - RHS

Note: Non-Bank including Government institution


Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic Republik of Indonesia

October-12

Nop'09

Dec'06

Sep'08

Feb '08

Mar'12

Mar'05

Jun'10

Okt'05

Mei'06

Jul'07

Jan'11

Domestic Debt Government Securities Ownership


Dec'08 Dec'09 254.36 144.19 59.98 42.40 6.02 1.77 22.50 304.89 45.22 72.58 108.00 Dec'10 217.27 131.72 54.93 26.26 1.41 2.95 17.42 406.53 51.16 79.30 195.76 Dec'11 265.03 148.64 67.33 42.84 4.32 1.90 7.84 450.75 47.22 93.09 222.86 Dec'12 299.66 147.52 81.58 62.07 3.67 4.83 3.07 517.53 43.19 83.42 270.52 Jan'13 307.46 152.64 81.66 64.30 4.14 4.72 1.90 524.05 43.78 85.72 273.20 Feb'13 309.93 150.88 78.16 71.36 4.22 5.31 4.60 541.86 43.04 117.44 281.63 50.87 32.98 0.53 33.87 525.69 37.50 0.46 41.12 581.75 36.75 0.13 43.43 641.21 34.39 0.14 53.05 723.61 56.46 0.30 63.64 820.27 57.31 0.63 25.77 37.65 833.42 27.55 1.18 30.29 40.72 856.39 Mar'13 315.89

BANK
State-owned Bank Recap Private Bank Recap Non-Recap Bank BPD Recap Shariate Bank

258.75 144.72 61.67 45.17 6.50 0.69 23.01 243.93 33.11 55.83 87.61

5.17 4.86 540.76 41.91 120.78 280.75 51.04 27.61 1.04 27.56 41.12 861.52

Government Institution NON-BANK


Mutual Fund Insurance Foreign Including: Central Bank of Foreign Country Pension Fund Securities Individu Others

TOTAL

Notes: Nominal in trillion IDR; Includes only tradable domestic Government Debt Securities; Including Islamic Government Debt Securities Foreign ownership of Bank, Private Bank, Mutual Funds, and Foreign Securities; Others include Corporates, Retail, Foundation, etc; *) Since February 8, 2008, including repo transaction of Government Securities to Bank of Indonesia.
Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic Republik of Indonesia 45

Domestic Debt Government Securities Ownership (%)


Dec'08 BANK State-owned Bank Recap Private Bank recap Non-recap Bank BPD recap Shariate Bank 49.22% 27.53% 11.73% 8.59% 1.24% 0.13% 4.38% 46.40% 6.30% 10.62% 16.66% Dec'09 43.72% 24.79% 10.31% 7.29% 1.03% 0.30% 3.87% 52.41% 7.77% 12.48% 18.56% Dec'10 33.88% 20.54% 8.57% 4.10% 0.22% 0.46% 2.72% 63.40% 7.98% 12.37% 30.53% Dec'11 36.63% 20.54% 9.30% 5.92% 0.60% 0.26% 1.08% 62.29% 6.53% 12.86% 30.80% Dec'12 36.53% 17.98% 9.95% 7.57% 0.45% 0.59% 0.37% 63.09% 5.27% 10.17% 32.98% Jan'13 36.89% 18.32% 9.80% 7.72% 0.50% 0.57% 0.23% 62.88% 5.25% 10.29% 32.78% Feb'13 36.19% 17.62% 9.13% 8.33% 0.49% 0.62% 0.54% 63.27% 5.03% 13.71% 32.89% 18.06% 6.27% 0.10% 6.44% 100% 6.45% 0.08% 7.07% 100% 5.73% 0.02% 6.77% 100% 4.75% 0.02% 7.33% 100% 6.88% 0.04% 7.76% 100% 6.88% 0.08% 3.09% 4.52% 100% 3.22% 0.14% 3.54% 4.76% 100% Mar'13 36.67%

0.60% 0.56% 62.77% 4.87% 14.02% 32.59% 18.18% 3.20% 0.12% 3.20% 4.77% 100%

Government Institution
NON-BANK Mutual Fund Insurance Foreign Including: Central Bank of Foreign Country Pension Fund Securities Individu Others

TOTAL

Notes: Nominal in trillion IDR; Includes only tradable domestic Government Debt Securities; Including Islamic Government Debt Securities Foreign ownership of Bank, Private Bank, Mutual Funds, and Foreign Securities; Others include Corporates, Retail, Foundation, etc; *) Since February 8, 2008, including repo transaction of Government Securities to Bank of Indonesia.
Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic Republik of Indonesia 46

Foreign Ownership of Domestic Government Securities by Tenor


100,00%
49,30% 46,00% 38,23% 45,01% 44,91% 45,46% 46,42%

40%

80,00%

32,98% 30,53% 30,80%

32,78%

32,89%

32,59%

60,00%
19%
21,03%

24,93%

27,83%

25,11%

27,30%

27,67%

20%

40,00%

21,72% 19,78% 18,14%

16,78%
16,50% 16,66% 16,62%

20,00%

16,69% 2,58% 6,63%


Mar-13 28 Maret 2013

4,64% 4,74%

8,19% 11,87%
Dec-11

10,18%
Dec-10

0,00%

4,46%
Dec-09

2,83% 7,84%
Dec-12

3,11% 10,22%
Jan-13

2,53% 8,10%
Feb-13

0%

0-1

>1-2

>2-5

>5-10

>10

% Foreign Ownership to Total (RHS)


Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic Republik of Indonesia

Spread over UST- Jan 18


600 INDO 18
PHIL 19

TURK 18
BRAZ 19
DATE INDO 18 UST 18 TURK 18 PHIL 19 BRAZ 19 MEX 19

MEX 19

400

Sep-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 22-Mar-13 25-Mar-13 26-Mar-13 27-Mar-13

2.27 2.16 2.42 2.59 2.64 2.68 2.71 2.74

0.69 0.73 0.87 0.73 0.76 0.75 0.74 0.70

2.95 2.43 2.64 2.55 2.75 2.76 2.77 2.80

2.19 2.00 2.22 2.19 2.23 2.23 2.24 2.22

1.91 1.75 2.05 2.15 2.23 2.23 2.23 2.16

1.83 1.39 1.12 1.10 1.47 1.44 1.35 1.35

200

0 26-Jan-12

26-Mar-12

26-May-12

26-Jul-12

26-Sep-12

26-Nov-12

26-Jan-13

26-Mar-13

Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic Republik of Indonesia

Spread over UST- Feb 22


600 PHIL 21 INDO 22
TURK 22

BRAZ 21
Date PHIL 21 BRAZ 21 UST 22 INDO 22 MEX 22 TURK 22 2.43 2.26 2.50 2.39 2.49 2.49 2.49 2.48 2.25 2.08 2.45 2.51 2.63 2.59 2.60 2.60 1.53 1.61 1.83 1.69 1.72 1.72 1.71 1.64 3.05 2.90 3.13 3.28 3.47 3.51 3.55 3.54 2.68 2.58 2.61 2.78 2.82 2.81 2.90 3.01 3.77 3.21 3.53 3.59 3.73 3.75 3.76 3.80

MEX 22

400

Sep-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 22-Mar-13 25-Mar-13 26-Mar-13 27-Mar-13

200

26-Mar-12

26-May-12

26-Jul-12

26-Sep-12

26-Nov-12

26-Jan-13

26-Mar-13

Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic Republik of Indonesia

Spread over UST-Feb 42


600

MEX 40 TURK 41 INDO 42 400

BRAZ 41
DATE MEX 40 BRAZ 41 TURK 41 COLM 41 INDO 42 UST 42

COLM 41

Sep-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 22-Mar-13 25-Mar-13 26-Mar-13 27-Mar-13

4.01 3.95 4.38 4.43 4.54 4.54 4.54 4.48

3.96 3.80 4.30 4.37 4.63 4.59 4.59 4.55

4.91 4.44 4.77 4.92 5.11 5.12 5.12 5.14

4.00 3.91 4.34 4.38 4.57 4.55 4.52 4.47

4.40 4.23 4.57 4.71 4.75 4.77 4.79 4.80

2.80 2.91 3.14 3.06 3.13 3.13 3.13 3.07

200

0 26-Mar-12

26-May-12

26-Jul-12

26-Sep-12

26-Nov-12

26-Jan-13

26-Mar-13

Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic Republik of Indonesia

Chapter 7

Rating, Government Guarantee, Supreme Audit Agency Opinion (BPK), Conclusion

Kementerian Ministry Keuangan Finance Republik Indonesia Ministryof of Finance Republic Republicof ofIndonesia Indonesia

Credit Rating of Indonesia


Rating Improvement Determinants

The Indonesian economy resilience in the face of global crisis in 2007-2008

Political stability and law enforcement improvement


Prudential government debt management: Decrease of debt to GDP ratio Timeliness of debt obligations payment Increasing investors / lenders confidence Improvement rating one notch down the potential performance yield of new foreign currency of government securities approximately 75-115bps Credit risk measurement of a country by OECD member countries Range 0-7 (high risk) Decrease 1 level CRC potentially reduce the cost of foreign loans, especially new export credit facility of about 130-150bps

Sovereign Credit Rating (Fitch, Moodys, S&P)

Country Risk Classification (CRC)


Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic of Indonesia Ministry of Finance Republik Republic of Indonesia

Indonesia Credit Rating Performance (1)


Indonesia Rating Performance 1999 - 2012

Tahun/ year 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

S&P CCC+ BCCC CCC+ B B+ B+ BBBBBBBBBB BB+ BB+

Fitch BBBB B+ B+ BBBBBBBB BB BB+ BBBBBB-

Rating Moody's R&I B3 BB3 BB3 BB3 BB2 BB2 BB2 BBB1 BBBa3 BB+ Ba3 BB+ Ba2 BB+ Ba2 BB+ Ba1 BB+ Baa3 BBB-

JCRA B B B+ B+ BBBBBBBB+ BBBBBBBBB-

CRC 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3

On October 18, 2012, R&I upgraded Indonesias Sovereign Credit Rating from BB+ to BBBon March 30, 2012, OECD upgraded CRC of Indonesia from classification 4 to 3 on January 18, 2012, Moody's upgraded Indonesia's Credit Rating from Ba1 to Baa3

Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic of Indonesia Ministry of Finance Republik Republic of Indonesia

Indonesia Credit Rating Performance (2)


Regular issuance

Regular issuance Bank through auction, Economic Reprofiling VR & HB, Regular issuance BBB+ Baa1 through auction, Recapitalization 14 buyback program Crisis in assets bond swap, long through auction, buyback program s , debt switching, & 1998 term issuance buyback program , & Debt Switching BBB diversification Baa2 13 instrument BBB12 Baa3 BB+ 11 Ba1 BB 10 Ba2 BB9 Ba3 8 B+ B1 Moodyss upgrade to Ba1/stable 7 B outlook as of 17 Jan2011 B2 6 Moodyss upgrade to Baa3/stable Boutlook as of 18 Jan 2012 B3 5 S&Ps upgrade to BB+/ positif CCC+ outlook as of 8 Apr 2011 Caa1 4 CCC S&Ps downgrade S&Ps reconfirm at BB+/positif to Selective 3 outlook as of 23 Apri2012 Caa2 Default, but CCCFitchs upgrade to BBB-/stable revised it after 2 2 days outlook as of 15 Dec 2011 Caa3 CC Fitchs reconfirm at BBB-/stable 1 outlook , as of Nov 21, 2012 Ca R/C C SD/DD 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1999 1997 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Investment grade

Investment grade

Non Investment grade

Non Investment grade

Moody's (RHS)

S&P's

Fitch's
Kementerian Keuangan Republik Indonesia Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic Republik of Indonesia

Indonesia Sovereign Credit Rating Performance (1)


On March 30th 2012, OECD upgraded Indonesia's Country Risk Classification (CRC) from classification 4 to 3, along with Thailand, Uruguay, South Africa, Rusia, India, Brasil and Peru. On January 18th 2012, Moody's Investors Services upgraded Indonesia's Sovereign Credit Rating from Ba1 to Baa3 with stable outlook. Highlights from Moody's are:

Some of the key drivers of the decision are Moody's anticipation that government financial metrics will remain in line with Baa peers, the demonstrated resilience of Indonesia's economic growth to large external shocks, the presence of policy buffers and tools that address financial vulnerabilities and a healthier banking system capable of withstanding stress

On December 15th 2011, Fitch upgraded Indonesia Credit Rating from BB+ to BBB- with stable outlook which placed Indonesia into Investment Grade. Highlights from Fitch are:

The upgrades reflect the country's strong and resilient economic growth, low and declining public debt ratios, strengthened external liquidity and a prudent overall macro policy framework

On April 8th 2011, S&P upgraded Indonesia Credit Rating from BB to BB+ with positive outlook. Highlights from S&P are:

The main factor supporting this decision is continuing improvements in the government's balance sheet and external liquidity, against a backdrop of a resilient economic performance and cautious fiscal management

Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic Republik of Indonesia

Indonesia Sovereign Credit Rating Performance (2)


On October 18, 2012, R&I upgrades Sovereign Credit Rating of the Republic of

Indonesia to BBB- /stable outlook. R & I stated key factors supporting the decision of upgrading the sovereign credit rating of Indonesia (1) Indonesian economic resilience in achieving high growth amid the global economic downturn (2) conservative fiscal management (3) Governments debt burden is kept low and (4 ) financial system has become more stable.

On July 13th 2010 JCRA upgraded Indonesias Credit Rating from BB+ to BBB-

which placed Indonesia into Investment Grade. Highlights from JCRA are:

JCRA explained that the upgrade reflects (i) enhanced political and social stability along with the progress in democratization and decentralization, (ii) sustainable economic growth outlook underpinned by solid domestic demand, (iii) alleviated public debt burden as a result of prudent fiscal management, (iv) reinforced resilience to external shocks stemming from the foreign reserves accumulation and an improved capacity for external debt management and (v) efforts made by the second Yudhoyono administration to outline the framework to deal with structural issues such as infrastructure development.

Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic Republik of Indonesia

Government Guarantee Outstanding and Budget Allocation


Alokasi APBN (Miliar Rupiah) 2008 2009 2010 2011 889.0 15.0 904.0 2012 623.3 10.0 633.3 706.0 2013 611.2 35.0 59.8

No

Program Penjaminan

Jumlah Surat Nilai Jaminan Jaminan (Miliar Rupiah) 34 3 1 4 74,386.80 205.16 30,944.00 20,656.13 126,192.09

1 Fast track Program Phase 1 (FTP 1) 2 3 Program Percepatan Penyediaan Air Minum (Clean Water Avaliability Program) Penjaminan Proyek Kerjasama Pemerintah dan Swasta (Public Private Partnership Project)

283.0 1,000.0 1,000.0 50.0 -

4 Fast track Program Phase 2 (FTP 2) TOTAL


Notes: - As of February 28, 2013 - Rate assumptions : Rp. 9670,- per USD

283.0 1,000.0 1,050.0

Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic of Indonesia Ministry of Finance Republik Republic of Indonesia

BPK Opinion on Government Financial Report


Indonesian Supreme Audit Agency (BPK) has awarded

Unqualified Opinion to the Financial Report of all accounts related to debt management and administration (BA999.01)
Debt managements accountability continues to improve
Internal

control system Compliance to the existing regulation

Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic of Indonesia Ministry of Finance Republik Republic of Indonesia

Conclusion
Fiscal deficit requires financing. Debt has long been recognized as the best policy tool to support liquidity and to refinance matured debt Debt outstanding accounts growth in nominal term but debt as a share of GDP keeps to record a significant decrease and, as our fiscal rule mandates, it is still in a healthy level Ultimate goal of debt management is to acquire fund with low cost & risk, with long term maturity, untied to any political agenda

Continuing to achieve sound fiscal policy and debt management:


Looking at another developing and even advanced countries performance, debt indicator of Indonesia stays better and is continuing to be so Rules and regulations are already installed in place to guarantee accountability and transparency of debt management Central Governments Financial Report of 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 has been awarded Unqualified Opinion (WTP) by the Supreme Audit Agency (BPK) Global crisis has not changed investor expectation and market confidence to Indonesia. Rating upgrade especially since 2005, and on March 12th 2010 S&P upgraded Indonesia rating from BB- to BB in the midst of global financial crisis and rating downgrading of other economies. This proves at least two things: positive expectation of the economy in the short-to-medium run and the credibility of fiscal policy. By JCRA and Fitch, Indonesia has been placed into Investment Grade category

Kementerian Ministry of Finance Keuangan Republic of Indonesia Ministry of Finance Republik Republic of Indonesia

2013 Directorate of Evaluation, Accounting and Settlement Directorate General of Debt Management Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia Frans Seda Building, 7th Floor Jalan DR. Wahidin Raya No. 1 Jakarta Phone. +62-21-3864778; Fax. +62-21-3843712 www.djpu.depkeu.go.id
CP: achmadfauzi@depkeu.go.id/ wawan.hernawan@depkeu.go.id

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