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Background Briefing: Vietnam: Assessing President Truong Tan Sangs Visit to the United States -1 Carlyle A. Thayer July 24, 2013

[client name deleted] 1. What are the highlights of President Truong Tan Sangs meeting with President Barack Obama? How high is this visit on international radar? ANSWER: The important aspect of President Truong Tan Sang's visit is that high-level exchanges between Vietnam and the United States have been resumed. There is now greater convergence between Washington and Hanoi on a number of economics and securit issues. The United States has come to respect Vietnam's role as an emerging strategic country in ASEAN and Southeast Asia. Vietnam has come to better appreciate the strength of the U.S. market and the need for greater access through the Trans-Pacific Partnership. The meeting of the two presidents is primarily of interest to China, Southeast Asia countries, and Japan. 2. Some analysts say Truong Tan Sangs visit to the United Stated took them by surprise. Were you "surprised" by this visit? ANSWER: It is clear that President Sang's visit was agreed to at a very late stage. Vietnamese officials had about two weeks to prepare. The visit is a surprise because the U.S. had declared in public that any improvement in bilateral relations must be accompanied by an improvement in Vietnam's human rights situation. It was also a surprise because Secretary of State John Kerry twice postponed visits to Vietnam. Strategic analysts including myself were surprised because there were no signs indicating that a presidential visit was likely. It appears the crucial diplomatic exchanges took place in April with Vietnam at first demurring and then changing its mind and agreeing to the visit. 3. Human rights appear to be an issue that could stand in the way of closer military and economic ties that the two countries are seeking to boost. What is your assessment of these concerns? Is there any poossibility that the U.S. will lift its embargo on the sales of lethal weapons to Vietnam? ANSWER: If Vietnam and the United States successfully conclude negotiations on the TPP it will have to be ratified by the U.S. Senate. The risk for Vietnam is that outstanding human rights matters may precipitate a "blow back" against Vietnam and put the treaty at risk. The Senate could also attach various riders on the treaty related to human rights. Vietnam would view this as encroaching on its sovereignty.

2 The US recently loosened up on its restrictions on the sale of dual use - militarycivilian - technologies. It is unlikely that in the present climate where the US is concerned about the arrest of bloggers and others that President Obama would lift the restrictions on the sale of lethal military arms to Vietnam. It appears that Vietnam is mainly motivated to end discrimination against it rather than a desire to purchase expensive US arms that are not compatible with its existing stock. But other sales are possible such as coastal radar and maritime surveillance aircraft. 4. How is China watching this visit? How do you expect Beijing to react? ANSWER: Beijing will be watching President Sang's visit very closely for any signs of collusion directed against China. Chinese diplomats are likely to pass on messages in private warning Vietnam of unspecified consequences to joining the US policy of rebalancing and containment of China. 5. What is the prospect that the Trans-Pacific Partnership will be signed by the end of this year, as the leaders are hoping? Does it appear that Vietnam is glossing over all warnings against signing the pact and its possible flip sides? ANSWER: Both sides have sacred cows to protect and any compromise will be extremely difficult. The US insists that American yard be used in garments and textiles exported to the United States. The US also wants Vietnam to make procurement policies of state-owned enterprises more transparent. Vietnam is resisting American pressures on these issues. A TPP agreement is possible if the top leadership in both countries directs trade officials to reach an agreement. The US, however, would like to bring the other ten members on board in a TPP agreement. Australia, for example, is strongly resisting US pressures to end its subsidies to the pharmaceutical industry. Vietnam is more sophisticated than it was when it negotiated the Bilateral Trade Agreement with the US. TPP negotiations are extraordinarily complex and Vietnam must be ever alert to any negative impact on its economy. The bottom line, however, is that a TPP agreement would give Vietnam entry into a much larger market. Vietnam must "vuong ra bien lon" - take the plunge into the big ocean - and sink or swim depending on its own fitness.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: Assessing President Truong Tan Sangs Visit to the United States -1, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, July 24, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key. Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

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ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: Vietnam: President Truong Tan Sang Addresses CSIS Washington Carlyle A. Thayer July 26, 2013

[client name deleted] President Truong Tan Sang addressed the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) during his visit to Washington. In particular can you assess the "comprehensive partnership" that was announced in the joint statement issued after presidential discussions at The White House. Sources in Vietnam report that Presidents Sangs remarks in Vietnamese during the Question and Answer period about the South China Sea were unusually blunt for a Vietnamese leader and not captured in the English language translation. Do you agree? We have also received reports from Vietnam that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded quickly to local press reporting that Vietnam-U.S. relations had been upgraded by directing the media to report only that the leaders had declared a comprehensive partnership. ANSWER: Yes I watched President Truong Tan Sangs live address to CSIS. My streaming connection contained many interruptions. It eas noticeable that both President Sang and Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung (speaking recently at the Shangri-La Dialogue) were reticent about discussing the Philippines claim to the Arbitral Tribunal. President Sang responded to a question about China and the South China Sea by opposing Chinas 9-dash line claim as groundless, legally and practically. This was a very strong statement in contrast to Prime Minister Dung guarded remarks during the Question and Answer period at the Shangri-La Dialogue. Both David Brown, a retired American diplomat and Hanoi Watcher, and Nguyen Manh Hung, a professor at George Mason University, argue that President Sang was jolted during his June trip to China when Chinese leaders made strong comments on the South China Sea in private discussions. Brown and Hung argue Vietnam then sought a presidential visit to the US. I disagree, the Sang-Obama meeting was more about economics and trade than the South China Sea. On the comprehensive partnership: the U.S.-Vietnam Joint Statement issued after discussions in The White House between presidents Barack Obama and Truong Tan Sang declared they decided to form a U.S.-Vietnam Comprehensive Partnership to

2 provide an overarching framework for advancing the relationship. Up until this announcement it was widely assumed that Vietnam and the United States would raise their bilateral relations to a strategic partnership, first reportedly raised during Secretary of State Hillary Clintons visit to Hanoi in 2010. Vietnam has long sought to diversify and multilateralize its foreign relations. In the process of expanding its foreign relations Vietnam has had to treat some states as more equal than others. Vietnam has applied the term strategic partner to single out these special states. Currently Vietnam has formed strategic partnerships with twelve states: the Russian Federation (2001), Japan (2006), India (2007) Peoples Republic of China (2008), Republic of Korea (2009), Spain (2009), United Kingdom (2010), Germany (2011), Italy (2013), Indonesia (2013), Singapore (2013) and Thailand (2013). Vietnams partnerships with Russia and China were later raised to comprehensive strategic partner and strategic cooperative partner, respectively. Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung noted in his keynote speech to this years Shangri La Dialogue that Vietnam sought strategic partnerships with all permanent members of the United Nations Security Council. In other words, Vietnam sought strategic partnerships with France and the United States. What is the difference between a strategic partnership and a comprehensive partnership? The term strategic partner is a political term that identifies states that Vietnam has developed comprehensive bilateral relations with Vietnam and which Vietnam considers to be particularly important to the attainment of its national interests. Vietnams strategic partnerships are embodied in formal declarations whose form and content varies from partner to partner. Generally strategic partnership agreements set out a high-level joint mechanism to oversee their implementation. Strategic partnership agreements generally are also accompanied by a multi-year Plan of Action covering objectives in each sector of the agreement such as political-diplomatic, economic, science and technology, socialcultural and security and defence, etc. Why didnt Vietnam and the United States call their agreement a strategic partnership? One explanation is that negotiations on a strategic partnership bogged down and the two sides may have concluded that a less formal agreement was preferable to no agreement at all. Should the U.S-Vietnam comprehensive partnership be viewed as a strategic partnership by another name? The precedent is Vietnams comprehensive partnership with Australia. Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, in his first spell as prime minister, objected to including the term strategic because bilateral relations with Vietnam had not yet reached the level of intimacy and cooperation enjoyed by Australia with its allies and other likeminded states. Australia and Vietnam opted to designate their bilateral relations a comprehensive partnership. The agreement was accompanied by a Plan of Action and a joint mechanism to oversee its implementation. The U.S.-Vietnam comprehensive partnership is a work in progress. Most of the items included in its nine points reiterated areas of cooperation that were already underway. The Joint Statement reinforces the role of existing bilateral mechanisms

3 in many areas (Trade and Investment Framework Agreement Council; Joint Committee for Scientific and Technological Cooperation; Defense Policy Dialogue; and Political, Security, and Defense dialogue). And the Comprehensive Partnership creates a new political and diplomatic dialogue mechanism at ministerial level. The Comprehensive Partnership makes no mention of a Plan of Action. Nor does it mention a high-level mechanism to coordinate the nine sectors listed in the Joint Statement. Instead the Joint Statement notes that new mechanisms for cooperation will be created for each of the nine sectors: political and diplomatic relations, trade and economic ties, science and technology, education and training, environment and health, war legacy issues, defence and security, protection and promotion of human rights, and culture, sports and tourism. In summary, the presidential discussions mainly advanced bilateral cooperation on trade and economic issues, the conclusion of an agreement on the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and flagged regular dialogue between the U.S. Secretary of State and Vietnams Minister for Foreign Affairs. But cooperation in other areas would largely continue on their present trajectory. The U.S.-Vietnam Comprehensive Partnership is mainly an agreement describing incremental progress across a number of sectors. It falls short of Vietnams other formal strategic partnership agreements and currently lacks the strategic vision of Vietnams comprehensive partnership agreement with Australia.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: President Truong Tan Sang Addresses CSIS Washington, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, July 26, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key. Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: Vietnam: Assessing President Truong Tan Sangs Visit to the United States - 2 Carlyle A. Thayer July 27, 2013

[client name deleted] We request your assessment of Vietnamese President Truong Tan Sang s visit to Washington, his discussions with President Barack Obama, and the announcement of a comprehensive partnership. Q1. How do you assess the outcome of this visit? Did the Vietnam get what it wanted from the U.S.? ANSWER: President Truong Tan Sangs visit to Washington was organized at very short notice. It is still unclear which side took the initiative. It appears, however, that the U.S. revived discussions on a presidential visit in April following Secretary John Kerrys from withdrawal a planned visit to Vietnam. This was Kerrys second cancellation. This background is necessary to understand that the presidential visit was about setting the right tone in U.S.-Vietnam relations. The visit provided rewards to both parties. President Obama pushed for and got President Sangs agreement on an early conclusion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Presdent Obama was then able to highlight the promotion of jobs for American workers after his meeting with President Sang. Since the Obama Administration announced it was rebalancing to the Asia-Pacific it has had to play catch up to stress that rebalancing was more than just military presence. The USVietnam comprehensive partnership, following one with Indonesia in 2010, adds economic ballast to the rebalancing strategy. Vietnam also sought an agreement on the TPP. President Sangs visit was aimed at maintaining a balance in Vietnams relations with China and the United States, President Sangs visit to the U.S. came on the heels of his visit to Beijing from 19-21 June. The major political accomplishment of Sangs visit, from a Vietnamese viewpoint, was his adroit handling of the human rights issue. President Sang brought some religious dignitaries with him to discuss religious freedom issues. President Sang demonstrated that despite US warnings the bilateral relationship could not progress without demonstrable progress on human rights, it was possible to do business with Washington. In this respect both presidents agreed to establish a new bilateral political diplomatic mechanism at ministerial level and President Obama pledged to try and visit Vietnam before his term in office expires.

2 In April the Vietnam Communist Party Politburo passed a unanimous resolution on international integration. This resolution gave top priority to economic integration. President Sangs most important overall accomplishment was to focus bilateral relations on economics, trade and investment and to commit both Vietnam and the United States to reach final agreement on the TPP by the end of the year. Q2. The joint statement by Obama and Sang read President Obama and President Truong Tan Sang decided to form a U.S.-Vietnam Comprehensive Partnership. What is the real meaning of this comprehensive partnership? ANSWER: The comprehensive partnership is a political statement that Vietnam and the United States have developed broad based ties in nine major sectors and that they need to upgrade bilateral mechanisms to guide future cooperation. Reportedly, the United States first discussed the possibility of a strategic partnership when Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited Hanoi in 2010. Negotiations quickly became deadlocked over human rights. Vietnam, for its part, has been promoting strategic partnerships with the major powers. Vietnam has so far negotiated twelve strategic partnership agreements. Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung stated in his keynote address to this years Shangri La Dialogue that Vietnam wanted to have a strategic partnership agreement will all five permanent members of the UN Security Council. Vietnam has strategic partnerships with China, Russia, the United Kingdom but not France and the United States. Because of the short time to prepare for the presidential meeting, just two weeks, the comprehensive partnership is really a work in progress. The document mainly reiterated and summarized cooperative activities that have been underway for some time. It is now up the leaders of both countries to maintain high-level exchanges, to agree on a Plan of Action to map out the way ahead with specific objectives, and possibly to create a joint steering committee to oversee the implementation of projects that have been agreed. Q3. How do you assess the importance of South China Sea issues at these presidential talks? ANSWER: Basically nothing new was said by either president, as could be expected. The U.S. maintained its neutrality on sovereignty questions. Both presidents reaffirmed their past positions that territorial disputes should be settled peacefully without the threat or use of force in accord with international law. Both presidents underscored the value of full observance of the Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) and the importance of launching negotiations to conclude an effective Code of Conduct (COC). Q4. What is your assessment on the failure of Vietnam to obtain an agreement on a strategic partnership with the United States? ANSWER: Vietnamese sources reported prior to President Sangs visit that a strategic partnership agreement would not be signed because Vietnam hoped to host the signing of this agreement in October if they could entice President Obama to Hanoi.

3 Sources also reported that as the presidential visit drew near party conservatives began to oppose a formal strategic partnership agreement, fearing the U.S. was pushing bilateral relations too quickly. Once the comprehensive partnership agreement was announced, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a directive to the media that they should not describe the agreement as an upgrading of bilateral relations. The media was directed to report only that the two leaders had announced the establishment of comprehensive partnership.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: Assessing President Truong Tan Sangs Visit to the United States - 2, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, July 27, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key. Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.