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Climate Change = Extreme Weather = More Climate Change

Po sted by Gre g Lade n o n August 18 , 20 13 (3)
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sailo r o n Climate Change = Extreme Weather = Mo re Climate Change H. Fisk Phelps (Attended UCD 19 39 /40 ) o n Ho w to get rid o f spiders in yo ur ho use Lynn o n Ho w to get rid o f spiders in yo ur ho use Sir Keef o n Fukushima Update Greg Laden o n Befo re The Lights Go Out: Maggie
The many and varie d c o ns e q ue nc e s o f e xtre me we athe r: d ro ug hts , he at wave s , s to rms , he avy rain and e xtre me fro s t affe c t the c arb o n b alanc e o f fo re s ts , g ras s land s and ag ric ultural land in d iffe re nt ways . The arro ws p o inting up ward re p re s e nt ad d itio nal c arb o n d io xid e in the atmo s p he re . The arro ws p o inting d o wnward ind ic ate that c arb o n d io xid e is re mo ve d mo re s lo wly fro m the atmo s p he re . O rang e arro ws s tand fo r s ho rt-te rm and p urp le arro ws fo r lo ng -te rm e ffe c ts .

Ko erth o n Rachel Maddo w!!!! significant identifer o n Co mmand line unit co nversio n Greg Laden o n The Case fo r Vegan Ho t Do gs Eric Lund o n The Case fo r Vegan Ho t Do gs

T he last several decades of climate change, and climate change research, have indicated and repeatedly conf irmed a rather depressing reality. When something changes in the earths climate system, it is possible that a negative f eedback will result, in which climate change is attenuated. I.e., more CO2 could cause more plant growth, the plants eat the CO2, so a negative f eedback reduces atmospheric levels of the greenhouse gas bringing everything back to normal. Or, when something changes in the earths climate system, we could get a positive f eedback, where change in one direction (warming) causes more change in that direction. A developing and alarming example of this would be warming in the arctic causing less summer sea ice in the arctic which warms the arctic which causes less sea ice, etc. etc., with numerous widespread and dramatic ef f ects on climate and weather. Over these decades of observation and research, weve discovered that negative f eedbacks are rare, and when they occur, the are f eeble. Yes, some plants do eat some of that extra CO2, bur hardly any. T his makes sense. Adding antelopes to the savanna might cause there to be more lions to some extent, but the cap on lion density is not antelopes it is other lions, staking out territories. Af ter the f irst f ew dozen antelopes all you get is a lot of antelopes. Biological systems tend to

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f irst f ew dozen antelopes all you get is a lot of antelopes. Biological systems tend to optimize within some range. Plants cant really be expected to use more water, more CO2, more other nutrients, just because they are there, beyond some range that they typically use in nature. Well, we have a new positive f eedback: Weather Weirding caused by climate change causes more climate change. Heres how it works. First, we warm the arctic. T his causes the gradient of warm tropical air to cooler temperate and arctic air to reduce. T he gradient causes atmospheric systems that include jet streams to f orm, but with a reduced gradient, the jet streams change their behavior. When the gradient is low enough (as it is now most of the time) the polar jet stream shif ts f rom being a more or less simple circle around the earth to a very wavy circle, and the jet stream itself moves more slowly. For reasons that have to do with the math of the atmosphere, when the waviness reaches a certain point the waves themselves tend to stop moving, or move only slowly. So the jet stream is moving through these waves, but the position of the waves remains stable f or days and days on end. Where the wave dips towards the equator, an low pressure system f orms in the elbow of the wave and sits there f or days on end, causing cool conditions and a lot of precipitation. Flooding ensues. Where the wave dips up towards the pole, a high pressure system f orms in the inverted elbow of the jet stream. T his brings warm air north and that air tends to be dry (depending on where it is). T his results in heat waves and drought conditions. T he reality is more complex that Ive indicated here, but you get the picture. Weather extremes of both cold and heat occur, and weather extremes of both wet and dry occur. (For more inf ormation on these phenomena see: Why are we having such bad weather?, Linking Weather Extremes to Global Warming, and T he Ice Cap is Melting and You Can Help.) And now comes the newly identif ied positive f eedback.
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T he research by scientists at Max Plank is published in nature (see citation below) but summarized on a web page f rom that institute:
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When the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere rises, the Earth not only heats up, but extreme weather events, such as lengthy droughts, heat waves, heavy rain and violent storms, may become more frequent. Whether these extreme climate events result in the release of more CO2 from terrestrial ecosystems and thus reinforce climate change has been one of the major unanswered questions in climate research. It has now been addressed by an international team of researchers working with Markus Reichstein, Director at the Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry in Jena. They have discovered that terrestrial ecosystems absorb approximately 11 billion tons less carbon dioxide every year as the result of the extreme climate events than they could if the events did not occur. That is equivalent to approximately a third of global CO2 emissions per year.that the consequences of weather extremes can be far-reaching. As extreme climate events reduce the amount of carbon that the terrestrial ecosystems absorb and the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere therefore continues to increase, more extreme weather could result, explains Markus Reichstein. It would be a self-reinforcing effect.

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In particular drought (caused by extremes of heat long term, and lack of rainf all) cause plants to absorb less CO2. Heavy precipitation increases the f low of water containing carbonate holding materials into bodies of water where the CO2 out-gasses. I would add to this the relationship between drought, f ire, and dark snow in Greenland. Climate change causes extreme weather which causes more of the same sort of climate change. Bobby Magill also discusses this here: Can Extreme Weather Make Climate Change Worse? ___________________________ Reichstein, Markus, Bahn, Michael, Ciais, Phillipe, & Et Al (2013). Climate extremes and the carbon cycle Nature DOI: 10.1038/nature12350
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sailor August 18, 2013

Cats, Carnivo res, and vario us Mammals

#1

On the negative feedback side wont global warming mean more clouds and thus more reflection?

David Kirt ley St Louis August 18, 2013

Gun Co ntro l

#2

Good post!

Greg Laden August 18, 2013

#3

Sailor, that was hoped for at one point but it does not seem to work that way. There are a number of reasons including that the vapor is concentrated in space not uniform, and not at high enough of an altitude to reflect enough heat vapor is a green house gas and clouds reflect sunlight, so one can imagine the possible outcomes are complicated. I think, though, that the cloud situation has been largely settled and there isnt much hope of a significant (or any?) negative feedback there.

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