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LEADING INDICATORS

by Eduardo Petazze
The aim of this paper is to summarize the sources (links) of business cycle indicators (leading, coincident and lagging) and related, available for a set of countries The use of such indicators, can be reasonably anticipated between 1-6 months, statistical records trends that set the pace of economic activity in a country! Multiple surveys of confidence indicators, for e"ample, consumers (related to the evolution of retail sales and investment in homes), business, and e"pectations indicators, etc!! have a similar ob#ective but limited to a specific category of economic activity! $elow only point out some of them! %lso referenced some of the most important economic pro ections IM! " #orld Economic Outloo$ Reports OECD T%e OECD Composite Leadin& Indicators 'CLI( are calculated for && '()* countries (+celand is not included), 6 non-member economies and , zone aggregates -ethodology guideline . pdf, 1, pages T%e Con)erence *oard /ost monthly following leading indicators 1! Australia 0! *ra+il &! C%ina 1! Euro Area 2! !rance 6! Germany 3! India ,! ,apan 4! -orea 15! Me.ico 11! Spain 10! /0-0 1&! /0S0 /ublication dates available on the calendar #orld *an$ " 1rospects Ar&entina . /TDT 2 CI! Australia - Melbourne Institute 3 #estpac Canada " Leadin& Indicator o) Industry 1ro)itability (The )onference $oard of )anada) C%ina Mainland Macro"Economic Climate Inde. CEMAC 3 GS (C%inese ) Tai4an *usiness Cycle Indicators Denmar$ - Tendency survey Euro Area 3 E/ 5"coin EC* Survey o) 1ro)essional !orecasters ESI 2 Economic Sentiment Indicator 6E# " Economic Sentiment Indicator )or Central and Eastern Europe 'CEE( Germany I)o *usiness Climate 6E# Indicator o) Economic Sentiment Israel " Composite Inde. '*oI( ,apan " Inde.es o) *usiness Conditions -orea *o- " *usiness Survey Inde. '*SI( and Economic Sentiment Inde. 'ESI( -oStat " T%e Industrial Activities Me.ico " Cyclical indicator system 'INEGI( Net%erlands " *usiness cycle Sout% A)rica " Composite *usiness Cycle Indicators 2 ,uly 789: 'Res*an$( S4eden " Economic Tendency Survey 'NIER( S4it+erland -O! *usiness Tendency Surveys 6E#"CS !inancial Mar$et Test S4it+erland T%ailand 2 *usiness Cycle Inde. Tur$ey " *usiness Tendency Survey and Real Sector Con)idence Inde. /C*I " Economic !orecast E; " <uarterly /- !orecast Lloyds *an$ " */SINESS *AROMETER ',uly 789:( NIESR " Mont%ly GD1 Estimates O*R " Economic )orecasts /SA C*O " Economic 1ro ections C%ica&o !ed National Activity Inde. 'C!NAI( ECRI " /0S0 Cyclical Outloo$ 'Member Reports( !ederal Reserve 2 *ei&e *oo$ I*D 3 TI11 Economic Inde. M*A " Economic !orecast NA*E Outloo$ N!I* " Small *usiness Economic Trends St0 Louis !ed " National Economic Trends