Assignment 2 (Due Date : 30 March 2013)

March 11, 2013

1. Consider thanecensus.xls data. Divide data into two parts(part 1 : rst 60% of rows, part 2 : remaining 40%). (a) Fit a linear curve (linear regression) on part 1 data showing the eect of literate population on working population. Find total error on part 2 data. Follow same procedure for non linear regression with degrees from 2 to greater than 10. Show the change in total error on part 2 data against degree of polynomial by plotting a curve. Write analysis about the curve. (5) (b) From the plotted graph, take any 3 non linear regressions of any degree after point of minimum total error. Apply the ridge regression on those polynomial regressions and report the errors. (4) (c) Now nd multivariate linear regression for working population as a function of male literate population, female literate population, Main Cultivator Population, Main Agricultural Labourers Population, Main Household Industry working population. Report the errors. (3) (d) Write a conclusion about all the subquestions above. (2) 2. Let 0 < p < 1 be a known real number. The game begins with N0 = 50 coins on the table, each of which has probability p of falling heads when tossed. At each stage, when starting with Ni coins, we toss them and remove all which fall heads. Thus Ni+1 are those which fell tails in the (i + 1)-th toss. Suppose that the game stops at k = 4, i.e., we have: 50 = N0 , N1 , N2 , N3 , N4 . Write a recurrence to compute p(Ni ) = k , the probability that Ni = k . Write a pseudo-code to compute these numbers. Now suppose that k = 15 is observed at some point in the game, i.e., Ni = 15 for some i, how would you compute the most likely i ? (6)

Instructions : Form groups of two to solve rst question. Second question must be done individually. Make a text document named as readme that includes answers to rst question, whenever necessary. Answer to the second question must be submitted on paper. The .sce les with the solution code to every question. All these les should be named as per convention Q_(question_no)_(part_if_any).sce. For e.g. The solution code to Question 1 part 1 should be named as Q_1_1.sce. The text document and all the .sce les should be put in a single folder named Your_Roll_no_asgn2 (for e.g. 120050022_asgn2) and then submitted in .tgz/.tar.gz format. Path to thanecensus.xls le is http://www.cse.iitb.ac.in/~ic102/ code/scilab_code/census_code/census_data/thanecensus.xls.