SCHEDULE RISK ANALYSIS

Mi t Mayes, Misty M PMP

President, Management Solutions, LLC Knoxville, TN J January 26 26, 2011

US Army Corps of Engineers

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PM/Project Controls
Integrated Project Controls Earned Value Analysis Project Management Plan P Preparation ti Business Process Development and Improvement Resource Management Management, Tracking and Forecasting Subcontractor Management, Tracking and Integration Risk Management Earned Value Management System (EVMS) Certification

Forensic Scheduling
Baseline schedule review and analysis Schedule updates review and d analysis l i Verification of Progress Earned Performance Trending Predictability/forecasting Claims Analysis
Concurrent Delays/Impacts Time Impact Analysis Efficiency Impact Analysis

PM Training
PM Professional Courses PM Fundamentals Courses PM Software Courses Client-site / customized training available Instructors and SMEs with 20 plus years of hands-on experience

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Schedule Risk Analysis

Critical Aspects:
Develop a CPM (critical path) Evaluation of risk management efforts Create a blueprint for contingency planning

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Network Schedule Analysis Process

Establish Logical flow of how activities lead to completion l ti of f project j t
Define how activities are linked Determine order in which activities must be done Identify milestone activities and choke points

Estimate Activity Duration Times Evaluate Project Completion Date

Construct Critical path Sum Estimated Duration times of activities that are on the Critical path to estimate total project duration Compare the Total-duration Estimate with Projects R Required i d completion l ti ti time
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Baseline Comparison

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Total Float /Labor Hours

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Risk Management Effort

Understand the full range g of p potential risks Assess the distribution of the cost, schedule, and p performance impacts p of these risks Clarify which risks are correlated and in what ways y Assess the probability of these risks occurring over time Integrate these results into a full distribution on project schedule
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Possible Schedule Variance Causes

Poor baseline schedule (does it reflect reality?) Subcontractor/vendor cannot deliver when h needed d d More/less effort than planned Insufficient I ffi i t resources (staffing) ( t ffi ) Labor disputes/work stoppage Resource availability (is it there when I need it?) Requirement changes
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Schedule Risk Register

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Blueprint for Contingency Planning

Quantifying project schedule uncertainty to:
Increase confidence in schedule estimates Establish reasonable milestones Equitably compare alternatives

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Schedule Risk Profile

As your project progresses, your risk exposure should decrease which allows your contingency to tighten up up.
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Summary
Anticipate p all p possible outcomes Take a comprehensive look at the entire project many large risks occur before construction Before B f di discussing i risk, i k fi first td define fi b baseline li scope, strategy, and cost and schedule estimates Balance the project teams team s perspective with independent subject-matter expertise Follow up monitor and update (risks change and are ultimately resolved as project develops) Develop and maintain documentation (Risk Register, g Plan / Contingency g y Profile) ) Risk Management
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