Modi has arrived. But is India ready?

December 25, 2012 14:30 IST Share thisAsk UsersWrite a CommentPrint this article Modi has arrived. Probably the country is not yet ready. Modi knows it. If Modi destroys the existing political consensus he will have to quickly replace it wit h another, notes M R Venkatesh. Modi's unprecedented win for the third consecutive time has profound implication s for Indian politics. The near certain rise of Modi within the Bharatiya Janata Party [ Images ], and by extension in the national political scene, challenges the assiduously built political consensus since Independence. Naturally, this ha s set the cat amongst the pigeons, especially amongst those who have been benefi ciaries of the "system." The reactions are predictable. "Modi's political agenda does not correspond to m y idea of India [ Images ]," says one analyst. Who cares? "Modi's political rise is a challenge to our Constitution," tells another, forgetting for a moment tha t we are a democracy where people's opinion, not that of arm chair critiques, ma tter. The third, who till date was claiming that our "Constitution was sublime" sudden ly seemed to be unsure about the infallibility of our Constitution! Put pithily the elites, especially in Delhi [ Images ], are paranoid about Modi and his poli tical rise. The reason for the same is obvious. Let us remember that Modi is not the first c hief minister of a state who has won three consecutive terms. Yet Modi is differ ent. Modi, let me put it bluntly, is akin to a disruptive technology that makes several inventions and innovations till date completely obsolete. Let me elabora te. Under our Constitution, the Supreme Court need not function only out of New Delh i. The founding fathers of our Constitution foresaw the necessity of setting up benches in various parts of our country. But even after sixty years of our Indep endence we have a Delhi centric apex court. And to this date there is no talk of setting benches of the Supreme Court in different parts of the country. This ha s made justice physically inaccessible for our countrymen hailing from remote co rners. But who are the beneficiaries of this centralised system? Obviously, the senior counsels of Supreme Court and sections of our judiciary. From Constitutional Law to environmental law, from criminal to company law, they -- a dozen or two of o ur senior counsels -- are gateway to law and justice for a billion plus people! Why cannot this system be decentralised? Simple. Vested interests dominate such ideas and derail alternatives. This makes judiciary in general and Supreme Court in particular unaffordable for our vast majority. That in turn makes democracy unattractive to many, leading t o several fissiparous tendencies raising its ugly head across the country protes ting primarily against such vested interests. Delhi -- as is several our state capitals -- is dotted with such vested interest s. What is true for Supreme Court at the national level holds true for the high

courts at the state level. And let the reader get me wrong, the list includes me dia, bureaucracy and several elite sections of our society besides judiciary. In effect, we have turned India into a heaven for such elites. Needless to emphasi se, it is these beneficiaries of the extant system who are opposed to Modi's ris e. Why? Modi could ensure, for instance, benches of the Supreme Court at Coimbatore , Nagpur, Guwahati, Udaipur, Pune and probably Patna. Simultaneously, he would e ncourage states to have one or more benches for their respective high courts. Su ch a move would instantly have the backing of a very large of our population. Im portantly, that would dynamite the assiduously built consensus since Independenc e where senior counsels, both at the Supreme Court and the high courts, dominate the functioning of courts. Higher echelons of bureaucracy across the country know this. What must worry the m is that Modi is eminently capable of mandating that all government employees m ust necessarily send their children to government schools. This will well be Mod i's way of fixing all that is wrong with our primary education. In short, he will not be incremental. Nor will he believe than an educational ce ss will do the trick. He will have his own way. That explains why most of our el ite are paranoid about him. But his rise will not be automatic But there is an entirely different dimension to this debate about Modi. For six decades since Independence political parties in India have come to a conclusion that India can at best consistently be a developing country; not a developed nat ion. On the contrary, political parties have unanimously developed a sacred and secular vote bank of our poor that consistently feeds all political parties in I ndia. That makes Modi and his growth and development model a red herring for all polit ical parties. How can India democracy function without its gargantuan numbers of poor? That is not all. Politics of poor invariably leads to economics of subsid y, allotments and entitlements. This in turn feeds on a massive lobby that feeds on itself and the beneficiaries of all this in turn ensure that India remains u nderdeveloped; and its vast majority of poor in a perennially subsistence state. This is where Gujarat growth model excites most Indians. Crucially, Modi has ens ured a robust farm growth for over a decade. Even his worst detractors concede t hat Gujarat -- a predominantly water starved state -- has maintained an electrif ying farm growth in excess of 7% consistently for over a decade. This is in dire ct contrast in a country where the planning commission "plans" for a pan-Indian farm growth of 4% and gloats on ending with a growth rate far lesser than 3%. And remember, Gujarat engines India's manufacturing and physical exports too. Of course on some social indices Gujarat is lacking behind the all India average. But why then did people of Gujarat vote him back to power? The reason for the sa me is not far to seek -- Indians do not seek miracles from their government. Al l that they want is honest leaders who put their best foot forward. That explains why despite his intensely polarising personality, even his politic al opponents have failed in even levelling any credible corruption charge agains t Modi. This is in stark contrast in a country where several Union Cabinet minis ters, including the prime minister, are under a cloud. That incorruptible person ality of Modi appeals to the average Indian so very desperate for a clean and de cisive leadership. For a beleaguered BJP, the rise of Modi comes at an appropriate time. Probably,

it is a lifeline for a party that is floundering on its leadership issue. But gi ven the schism within the party, one can safely predict that his rise may not be entirely welcomed even within his party. Once again, let us not forget that BJP has its own share of elites who dominate the party, especially in Delhi. Surely, the rise of Modi will first be challenged within BJP, by other political parties and finally by all those who suspect that his rise will destabilise the ir position. Modi knows that his rise within the party will not be automatic by any stretch of imagination. Exciting times Modi also knows that the mess created in the past few years requires decisive le adership. But the political climate in the country is not ripe for his intervent ion. Simply put that means we may face an unstable coalition at the Centre post general elections. Modi's personality will not suit such a scenario where he may get repeatedly pil loried by smaller regional parties and may at best be first amongst equals. Given this paradigm, Modi may well continue to continue be the chief minister of Gujarat. That will give him the advantage of a constitutional office in tacklin g all pending charges against him. Meanwhile another coalition government may we ll add to the overall mess in the country on all fronts. So in all probability, Modi may well allow the rot to continue and then step in finally. Meanwhile, he may well get support from his party cadre which will defi nitely be electrified by his mere presence. A "Modified" BJP may well get its cadres to work. That may polarise the electora te further. This may benefit the BJP though in a way the Congress may benefit to o in such a scenario. To that extent even the Congress may encourage his ascende ncy to the national stage. That may well mean that the regional parties will become less relevant in our po litical theatre. The coalition governments of the past two decades may give way to single party governments. In the alternative, regional parties must talk of a development agenda to be relevant. And in the process they need to appeal to la rger denominations, not necessarily their caste through emotions. In turn all these mean development and growth will become the benchmark -- a tec tonic shift in our politics. Consequently, bureaucracy will increasingly be ques tioned for performance. Corruption will not be a theoretical discussion at prime time, rather action will be taken on the corrupt. Reforms will become people ce ntric and Budgets measured on outcomes. Modi has arrived. Probably the country is not yet ready. Modi knows it. If Modi destroys the existing political consensus he will have to quickly replace it wit h another. How he goes about building national consensus on his policies of dece ntralisation, economic growth (including farm sector), industrial development, t echnology and other related issues in immediate future will be the next big thin g in Indian politics. The author is a Chennai-based Chartered Accountant. He can be contacted at mrv@m rv.net.in http://www.rediff.com/news/column/gujarat-election-modi-has-arrived-but-is-india -ready/20121225.htm