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Overall, we give the Q2/13 earnings season a B rating, as results have generally beat lowered expectations. Of the 450 companies that have reported results, 324 (72%) reported earnings above analyst expectations. S&P 500 operating earnings are likely to come in around $26.50, which would mark a new quarterly high for the index and equate to Y/Y growth of 4.3%. Helping to drive the better-than-expected results were the financials and consumer discretionary sectors, which posted Y/Y growth of 28% and 11%, respectively. Top-line results were a challenge in the quarter, which should not be a surprise given slowing global growth seen for much of H1/13. Sales grew at 2.4% in the quarter, which was down from 8% in Q1/13. 56% of companies in the S&P 500 beat sales estimates, which is well below the long-term average beat rate of 62%. Corporate managers continue to be guarded in their outlooks, with 56 companies in the S&P 500 providing negative pre-announcements for Q3/13 quarterly results, versus 15 companies providing positive pre-announcements, according to Thomson Reuters. On February 14, 2013, we upgraded U.S. financials to marketweight, given improving fundamentals for the sector. With these supportive trends continuing, we are upgrading the sector to overweight. Our more constructive view of the sector is predicated on: 1) strong earnings, 2) improving fundamentals, 3) attractive valuations, and 4) strong technical trends. With interest rates on the rise we analyzed historical sector returns during previous periods of rising interest rates. As expected, the interest-sensitive sectors underperformed, with the utilities and telecommunications sectors posting weak relative returns. This supports are underweight position in these sectors. The strongest and most consistent outperformer was the information technology sector, which was the best performing sector in five of the six periods of rising interest rates. We remain overweight the sector. Consumer discretionary and materials at times outperform, however we remain underweight these sectors. Industrials generally outperformed the broader market, and we continue to recommend an overweight in the sector.
This Document is for distribution to Canadian clients only. Please refer to Appendix A of this report for important disclosure information.
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
7.4%
65%
5.0%
0.0% Q1/11 Q2/11 Q3/11 Q4/11 Q1/12 Q2/12 Q3/12 Q4/12 Q1/13 Q2/13 Q3/13 Q4/13
Top-line results were a challenge in the quarter, which should not be a surprise given slowing global growth seen for much of H1/13. Sales grew at 2.4% in the quarter, which was down from 8% in Q1/13 (Exhibit 2). 56% of companies in the S&P 500 beat sales estimates, which is well below the long-term average beat rate of 62%. On the positive side, there was an increase in the companies that beat sales estimates from 49% in Q1/13 to 56% in Q2/13, driven by strong revenue beats in the information technology and utilities sectors. Exhibit 2: S&P 500 Sales Growth Slows to 2.4%; Sales Beat Rate Increases to 56% in Q2
20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 S&P 500 sales growth slowed to 2% in the quarter.
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S&P 500 net profit margins increased 40 basis points (bps) Q/Q to 9.54% in Q2/13, which marks the second quarter of margin expansion following Q4/12s weak margin results. We find this interesting, given the recent surge in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield increasing roughly 100 bps to 2.60% since early May (Exhibit 3). Based on analysis weve read, lower interest expense for S&P 500 companies, as a result of record low interest rates, has contributed roughly 70 bps to net margins in recent years. As interest rates reverse and move higher, we believe this tailwind for earnings, and therefore margins, could become a headwind in the coming quarters. Corporate managers continue to be guarded in their outlooks, with 56 companies in the S&P 500 providing negative pre-announcements for Q3/13 quarterly results, versus 15 companies providing positive preannouncements, according to Thomson Reuters. This results in a negative/positive ratio of 3.73, which is above the long-term average of 2.40, but well below last quarters 5.90 level.
Exhibit 3: Net Margins Expand Despite the Backup in Yields; Forward Guidance Remains Guarded
% 3.00
2.50
2.00
S&P 500 Pre announcements Positive In-Line Negative Total N/P Ratio
Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13
1.50
1.00 Jan-12
Sector Update Upgrading U.S. Financials to Overweight On February 14, 2013, we upgraded U.S. financials to market weight, given improving fundamentals for the sector. With these supportive trends continuing, we are upgrading the sector to overweight. Our more constructive view of the sector is predicated on the following factors: The sector continues to deliver strong earnings growth with 25%+ EPS growth in three of the last four quarters. The financials sector is also seeing the strongest earnings revisions trends of any S&P 500 sector. The sectors strong earnings and improving fundamentals are in part being driven by an improvement in the U.S. housing and labour markets, lower loan loss provisions, improved stability in Europe, and more recently, a steepening yield curve, which should help drive higher net interest margins. Despite the rally in the sector, valuations remain attractive, with the sector trading at 1.28x P/B (a 14% discount to its 10-year average) and a 20% discount to where it typically trades relative to the S&P 500 (Exhibit 4). Finally, from a technical perspective, the sector continues to show strong relative strength, as it has outperformed the S&P 500 since early 2012.
Exhibit 4: Financials Sector is Trading at a 20% Discount to Average While Its Relative Strength Remains Strong
S&P 500 Financials P/B Relative to S&P 500
0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13
S5FINL Index Average
0.16
0.14 Aug 10
Feb 11
Aug 11
Feb 12
Aug 12
Feb 13
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Sector Performance in a Rising Interest Rate Environment Finally, with the recent 100 bps rise in the 10-year Treasury yield and it breaking above an important technical resistance level, we wanted to contrast our current sector recommendations with historical sector returns during previous periods of rising interest rates. In Exhibit 5 we provide relative sector returns (versus the S&P 500) in six different periods of rising interest rates, along with rankings for each period. Some key highlights of this analysis include: As expected, the interest-sensitive sectors underperformed, with the utilities and telecommunications sectors posting weak relative returns, and consistently ranking at the bottom of the sector rankings. This data supports our underweight recommendation in these sectors. The strongest and most consistent outperformer was the information technology sector, which was the best performing sector in five of the six periods of rising interest rates. We are overweight this sector and note that the S&P 500 Information Technology sector recently broke above an important resistance level of 500, with improving relative strength. The consumer discretionary sector showed mixed but generally positive relative returns in periods of rising interest rates. We remain underweight in this sector, partly due to the high valuations for the sector. Industrials generally outperformed the broader market, with the sector outperforming the S&P 500 in four of the six periods. We continue to recommend an overweight position in the sector, and note that the ISM Manufacturing Index jumped to 55.4 in July, the highest reading since June 2011. The strength in the manufacturing sector should support industrial stocks in the H2/13. The materials sector has also outperformed the broader market, but given weak global growth trends, weak earnings outlook and technical trends, we maintain our underweight position in the sector.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Portfolio Advice & Investment Research. As at August 13, 2013 Note: Sector returns are relative to the S&P 500.
Conclusion With the improving fundamentals and confirming technical trends, we are increasing the U.S. financials sector to overweight. The financials sector joins our other overweight positions in the industrials, information technology and health care sectors. In a rising interest rate environment, information technology and industrials generally outperform the broader market, which provide support to our overweight recommendation. Conversely, we recommend an underweight position in the utilities and telecommunications sectors, which is supported by historical data, as these sectors typically underperform during periods of rising interest rates.
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