Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday August 21, 2013 Wednesday|

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday August 21, 2013 Wednesday|

Highlights
Indian Rupee touched an all time low of 64.13 in yesterdays trade. JP Morgan downgrades Indian markets from Underweight to Neutral Neutral. Chinas CB Leading Index increased by 1.4 percent in month of July. German PPI declined by 0.1 percent in the last month.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on August 20, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI

5401.5 18246.0 15002.99 1652.4 17463.5 1959.2 58497.8 14506.3 104.96 1373.10 23.16

0.0 -0.3 -0.1 0.4 0.5 -1.5 0.2 0.2 -2.0 0.5 -0.7

-10.4 -9.4 -2.9 -2.3 0.5 3.9 15.6 -0.1 -1.8 2.9 8.6

-10.4 -9.4 -3.5 -2.3 6.2 2.9 19.2 6.2 -0.4 3.3 15.7

0.7 -0.2 13.0 16.5 13.9 0.5 -0.7 66.3 9.4 -15.2 -19.0

Asian markets are trading on a negative today ahead of the release of minutes of Federal Reserve Julys meeting. Further, favorable economic data from China prevented sharp fall. Chinas Conference Board (CB) Leading Index increased by 1.4 percent in July as against a rise of 0.8 percent a month ago.

US Dollar Index
The Dollar Index (DX) declined around 0.4 percent yesterday on the back of recovery in global market sentiments in later part of the trade. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of expectation that Federal Reserve will start its QE tapering program from next month. Further, investors are awaiting for any announcement regarding pullback in Federal Reserve minutes to be announced on Wednesday. The currency touched an intra-day day low of 80.77 and closed at 80.93 on Tuesday.

Nymex Crude (Aug13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Aug13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Sept13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% - Yield

7322.50 102.09

0.1 0.0

0.4 10.4

-6.7 7.8

-3.5 2.9

Dollar/INR
US Dollar (% change) The Indian Rupee depreciated around 0.3 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated in the initial part of the trade on the back of concerns over the Current Account Deficit (CAD) and economic growth of the country. Further, outflow of foreign funds from equities and debt, downgrading on Indian equities from rom overweight to neutral along with strength in the DX in initial part of the trade exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, during the day the currency recovered its losses on account of selling of dollars by Reserve Bank of Indian at 63.80 l levels but couldnt prevent the Rupee from ending on a depreciation mode. The currency touched a fresh low of 64.11 and closed at 63.11 on Tuesday. For the month of August 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.445 crores th ($76.39 million) as on 20 August 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.66537.30 crores ($12562.20 million) till 20 August 2013. Outlook In todays session, we expect Rupee to trade on a mixed note as selling of dollars from central banks has provided respite e to fall in the currency currency. Further, weakness in the DX along with positive domestic markets will support an upside in the currency. However, long term worries still persists regarding the CAD and economic growth of the country which will cap sharp gains or even reversal in the currency.
Last Prev. day WoW

Source: Reuters

as on August 20, 2013 MoM YoY

Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Aug13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Aug13 Futures (MCX-SX)

80.93 63.11 63.49 63.51

-0.401 0.401 0.0 0.25 0.25

-1.1 -2.9 6.63 6.68

-1.3 -6.4 6.63 6.68

1.9 -12.4 13.74 13.77

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Aug13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down

valid for August 21, 2013 Support 63.10/62.80 Resistance 63.80/64.10

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday August 21, 2013 Wednesday|

Euro/INR
The Euro gained around 0.6 percent yesterday taking cues from weakness in the DX. Further, recovery in market sentiments in later part of the trade along with favorable economic data from Germany supported an upside in the currency. The Euro touched an intra intra-day high of 1.3452 and closed at 1.3416 on Tuesday. German Producer Price Index (PPI) declined by 0.1 percent in the month of July. Outlook In today's session, we expect Euro to trade higher on the back of weakness in the DX. However, sharp upside in the curr currency will be capped or reversal can be seen as a result of weak global market sentiments. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Aug13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 84.80/84.60 85.40/85.70 valid for August 21, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Prev. day

as on August 20, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR July 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.3416 84.67 84.6 84.6

0.623 -0.6 -0.53 -0.51

1.2 -4.1 8.29 8.28

2.1 -8.6 8.29 8.28

7.6 -18.5 22.79 22.79

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP/INR
The Pound witnessed a gain of 0.12 percent on Tues Tuesday on the back of weakness in the DX. Additionally, recovery in the market sentiments in later part of the trade acted as a positive factor. 1.5665 The currency touched an intraday high of 1.5695 and closed at 1.56 on Tuesday. Outlook We expect Pound to trade on a positive note in today's trade on the back of weaker DX. Additionally, expectations of favorable public net sector borrowing and industrial order expectations data will support an upside side in the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency be capped or reversal can be seen on account of weak global market sentiments. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Aug 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for August 21, 2013 Support 99.20/98.80 Resistance 99.70/100.0

GBP (% change)

as on August 20, 2013

Last

Prev. day

WoW

MoM

YoY

$ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR July13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR July 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.5665 98.913 99.58

0.12 0.13 0.31

1.4 4.18 9.50

2.6 9.16 9.50

-0.7 13.44 13.79

99.58

0.34

9.50

9.50

13.77

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday August 21, 2013 Wednesday|

JPY/INR
The Yen appreciated by 0.3 percent on Tuesday on the back of rise in risk aversion in global markets in early part of the trade which led to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. . The currency touched an intra intra-day high of 96.88 and closed at 97.26 on Tuesday. Japans Industries Activity for the month of June slumped by 0.6 percent as compared to a gain of 1.2 percent in May. Outlook From the intra-day day perspective, we expect Yen to appreciate on account of weak global market sentiments which will lead to rise in deman demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Aug 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for August 21, 2013 Support 65.0/64.80 Resistance 65.50/65.80

JPY (% change)
Last Prev day

as on August 20, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

97.26 0.649 65.29 65.34

-0.297 0.28 0.94 1.02

-1.0 3.63 9.89 10.02

-3.4 9.99 9.89 10.02

22.7 -7.28 -7.05 -6.96

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on August 21, 2013

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Public Sector Net Borrowing CBI Industrial Order Expectations Existing Home Sales Crude Oil Inventories FOMC Meeting Minutes

UK UK US US US

2:00pm 3:30pm 7:30pm 8:00pm 11:30pm

-3.7B -8 5.15M -1.6M -

10.2B -12 5.08M -2.8M -

Medium Medium High Medium High

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