B U S I N E S S P U
Business Owners and CEOs say fundamental structural change;
we haven’t hit bottom yet, and
many expect things will get worse
in over the course of this year.
Last month, The Nicolet Bank
Business Pulse reported 57% of
the CEOs and Business Owners
CEOs See in the NewNorth saying that
we haven’t hit bottom in this
recession. More CEOs say things
Fundamental will get only slightly worse (44%)
compared with those who think
Change things will get much worse (13%)
by the end of this year.
Ahead 39% believe the economy has
hit bottom, and believe things
will get slightly better by year’s
end; 4% think things will get much
better. (There were no differences
between CEOs leading goods
producing vs. service providing
organizations, nor between small
firms [less than 100 employees]
and large firms (100+).
CEOs and Business Owners were
asked if the current recession is
similar to others – that the basic
structure of the economy will
remain the same after the recession,
or one that will lead to fundamental
change. CEOs spoke with a clear
voice: 74% said this recession
is different, and will lead to
Executive Summary:
End of Q1/09
L S E©
10% said the economic structure
will remain the same; 16% are
not sure.
While CEOs generally think we’re
getting close to bottoming out,
they also believe the recovery will
not be a quick one - that it will take
several years to get back to where
we were prior to the recession.
CEOs may see a light at the end
of tunnel, but many think it will
be a long recovery. When asked
what will play the Most Significant
Role leading us out of this recession,
CEOs said small business (41%)
and consumers (27%). A few of the
CEOs (13%) think Government will
lead us out; 5% say big business;
5% are not sure. Nine percent
gave a variety of other responses
(e.g. a combination of factors,
conservatives regaining power,
Adam Smith, etc.).
The Business Pulse© asked CEOs
to gaze into their crystal balls
and share their view in the years
ahead. Several scenarios were
presented, and CEOs were asked
if they felt that event would occur
in the next year, in two years, in
five years, in ten years, in more
than ten years or never.
When do you see the recession ending?
41% say it will end in the next year; 50% say two
years. The remaining 9% think it will take five
or more years.
When will unemployment return to 4%?
Sixty-four percent think it will take five years -
or more - before it’s back to 4%. (The last time
unemployment was at 4% was 2000).
When will the value of your home return?
Thirteen percent think they will regain what
they lost in the value of their homes in the next
two years; 59% say it will take 5 years; 20% say
it will take 10 years; 6% say it will take more
than ten; 2% say Never.
When will the Dow return to 14,000?
CEOs don’t see this happening very soon. One
percent said in the next year; 12% say in the next
two; 47% say 5; 28% say 10; 10% say more than
10 years and 3% say Never.
When will the budget balance?
Nearly half say Never and, 33% say more than
10 years. Four percent say in 5 years!
The Crystal Ball gazing by the NewNorth CEOs
continued on a variety of interesting subjects.
We will report the rest of their prognostications
in the next issue of The Business News.

How the Survey is Conducted

The Nicolet Bank Business Pulse© is a Quarterly Study of CEOs and business leaders in the
NewNorth (Brown, Calumet, Door, Kewaunee, Manitowoc, Marinette, Oconto, Outagamie, Shawano,
Winnebago Counties in Wisconsin) and Menominee, Michigan. It is designed and implemented by
IntellectualMarketing, LLC. This study was conducted between April 27 and May 4, 2009.
Participants include: 28% in manufacturing; 25% in services; 19% retail trade; 5% wholesale
trade; 6% finance, real estate, insurance; 6% in transportation, communications, utilities; 6%
in construction; 7% in other industries. 14% have fewer than 6 employees; 34% have 6-25;
22% have 26-50; 15% 51-100; 8% 101-250; 5% 251-500; 1% 501-1,000; 2% have 1,001 or more.
Questions to Dr. David G. Wegge (920) 217-7738; david@intellectualmarketing.com