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TRUTH IN MEASUREMENT

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q The concept of uncertainty of measurement is not new

q It has been used in calibration laboratories long before the ISO GUM

q It has been normal practice whenever a value is reported an uncertainty is quot

q What is new is the formalising of the process with the ISO GUM and

q the requirements in ISO 17025

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AS ISO/IEC 17025

4.6.1 A calibration laboratory, or a testing laboratory, performing its own calibrations hall have and shall apply a procedure to estimate the uncertainty of measurement for a alibrations and types of calibrations

(Ex 1)

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I USED TO BE UNCERTAIN BUT NOW IM NOT SURE

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q What is uncertainty? q Does it mean we dont really know? q Does it mean we should not report our result?

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NO!
Most definitely not

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q Uncertainty is a component of our measurement. q It is a component that can be analysed and quantified. q When quantified it provides confidence in our result.

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HOW DO WE DETERMINE OUR UNCERTAINTY?

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The easiest way is by creating an

UNCERTAINTY BUDGET

q What is an uncertainty Budget?

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q An uncertainty budget is a convenient means of itemising, tabulating and calculating details of uncertainty. q How does it work?

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q Uncertainty analysis is simply a means of focussing attention on the individual components that may affect the final result. q The uncertainty budget is a means of capturing this information in logical steps. q Such as ..

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q Step 1: list the components that may affect our result. q Step 2: determine the type of distribution. q Step 3: determine the value of the semi range to be used. q Step 4: decide on our level of confidence in the value we are using.
(Ex 2)

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TYPICAL SOURCE COMPONENTS
0-25mm External Micrometer Source Ref. gauge block tol. Ref. gauge block uncert. Anvil geometry Therm effects Resolution/parallax (2), (3) Repeat./random effects(2), (3) Units m m m C m m

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DISTRIBUTION TYPES q A Normal Distribution - may be either Type A or a Type B uncertainty. A normal distribution may represent a random series of readings where the majority of the readings occur near the mean value. If these readings are sufficient in number and graphed, a bell shaped curve will result.

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q A Rectangular Distribution - is one in which the actual value may occur anywhere within the distribution with equal probability. It is important to define the limits of the distribution with a high degree of confidence.

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q A Triangular Distribution - is similar to the rectangular distribution with the difference being that there is a lower probability that the actual value will be at the limits of the range.

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DISTRIBUTION EXAMPLES
Source Ref. gauge block tol. Ref. gauge block uncert. Anvil geometry Therm effects Resolution/parallax (2), (3) Repeat./random effects(2), (3) Units m m m C m m Dist. Rect B Norm B Rect B Rect B Rect B Norm A

Ex 3)

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UNCERTAINTY TYPES q A Type A uncertainty is one which is evaluated by statistical means. This is generally only practical and meaningful with a reasonable number of repeated readings. q A Type B uncertainty is one which is evaluated by other than statistical methods.

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DETERMINING THE SEMI RANGE AND STANDARD UNCERTAINTY q Normal A Distribution - The scatter of a number (n) of repeated measurements will be found to have a normal distribution. We use the population standard deviation (s) of these readings as the semi-range and divide by the square root of the number of readings to obtain the ESDM and standard uncertainty.

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q If only a small number of readings are taken during the calibration then a pre-characterisation as shown in the ISO GUM in example H.1.3.2 may be appropriate. q For example..

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q The pooled experimental standard deviation characterising a comparison was determined from th variability of 25 (n1) independent repeated observations and was found to be 13m (s). In comparison with this example 5 (n2) repeated observations were taken.

q The standard uncertainty (u) is then..

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s ui = n2

or

13m ui = 5

= 5.8m

and the degrees of freedom are based on the number of repeated observations.

Vi = n1 1

i.e. 25-1 = 24

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q Normal B Distribution - The expanded uncertainty given on a calibration certificate is divided by the coverage factor (k) to obtain the standard uncertainty.

U 95 Uc = k

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q If a 95% confidence level is quoted on the calibration certificate without a coverage factor then it may be assumed that the divisor is 1.96 or 2 standard deviations . i.e. k = 2 (rounded to 2)

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q If a standard deviation is quoted; for example an uncertainty of 5m at the 3 standard deviation level, the standard uncertainty is obtained by dividing the quoted uncertainty by 3.

0.005 Uc = 3

= 1.7m

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q Rectangular B Distribution - The only information that we know about the distribution in this case will be the limits. These limits need to be selected critically with a high degree of confidence.

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q The ISO GUM advises that: There is no substitute for critical thinking, intellectual honesty, and professional skill

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q For the calculation of the standard uncertainty u for a rectangular distribution the formula is: a u= 3 q Where: u is the standard uncertainty. a is the semi range of the limits of the uncertainty component.

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STANDARD UNCERTAINTY Revision

Normal Distribution:

s ui = n a ui = 3 a ui = 6

(ESDM)

Rectangular Distribution:

Triangular Distribution:

Ex 4)

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DEGREES OF FREEDOM AND CONFIDENCE q Type A Uncertainties - The number of degrees of freedom for each Type A uncertainty is generally one less than the number of readings. Vi = n-1

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q RectangularType B Uncertainties - The number of degrees of freedom for each Type B uncertainty with a Rectangular Distribution is determined from the confidence in the limits. For example if the relative confidence level is 90% (a one in ten chance that the true value is outside the limits selected) then the degrees of freedom is 50.

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q The determination of the number of degrees of freedom for each Rectangular Type B uncertainty can be calculated simply by:

(10) 2 Vi = 2
= 50

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q Normal Type B Uncertainties - typically a calibration report, the confidence level and the k value may be provided. Referring to the Students t Distribution tables, the approximate degrees of freedom can be determined. If a k value is not provided then an infinite number of degrees of freedom may be assumed.

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Source Ref. gauge block tol. Ref. gauge block uncert. Anvil geometry Therm effects Resolution/parallax (2), (3) Repeat./random effects(2), (3)

Units m m m C m m

Dist. Rect B Norm B Rect B Rect B Rect B Norm A

Value U or a 0.30 0.24 0.25 2.00 1.00 0.12

Divisor Confidence % 1.7321 95 2.0000 95 1.7321 95 1.7321 80 1.7321 95 1.7321 95

Vi 200 30 200 12 200 9

(Ex 5)

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SENSITIVITY COEFFICIENTS q The sensitivity coefficient (c) describes how the output estimate varies with changes to the value of the input estimates. For example converting temperature in C to a common unit with other components of the budget.

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EXPANDED UNCERTAINTY q The expanded uncertainty (U)is the final estimate for the uncertainty

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CONVERSION BETWEEN CONFIDENCE LEVELS q For a normally distributed confidence level of 99% dividing the expanded uncertainty by 2.6 (k = an infinite number of degrees of freedom) will provide an approximation of the combined standard uncertainty. q Spreadsheet..

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UNCERTAINTY BUDGET 0 to 25 mm external micrometer Date:

: al Number:

Maximum length (mm) = Coeffecient of expansion (ppm / C) =

25 11.5

Source Units gauge block tol. m gauge block uncert. m l geometry m m effects C (2), (3) olution/parallax m (2), (3) eat./random effects m

Dist. Rect B Norm B Rect B Rect B Rect B Norm A Sums

Value U or a 0.30 0.24 0.25 2.00 1.00 0.12

Divisor 1.7321 2.0 1.7321 1.7321 1.7321 1.7321

Confidence % 95 95 95 80 95 95

Vi 200 30 200 12 200 9

ui 0.1732 0.1200 0.1443 1.1547 0.5774 0.0693

ci 1 1 1 0.2875 1 1

ui ci 0.1732 0.1200 0.1443 0.3320 0.5774 0.0693

(u i c i )^2 0.0300 0.0144 0.0208 0.1102 0.3333 0.0048 0.5136 0.7166 166.5300 1.9744

[(u i c i )^4 4.5000E 6.9120E 2.1701E 1.0122E 5.5556E 2.5600E 1.5839E

Combined Standard Uncertainty, U c Effective Degrees of Freedom, V eff Coverage factor, k = Student's t for V eff and CL 95% Expanded Uncertainty, U=ku c +/-

1.4149

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EXTRACT FROM THE GUM

4.8. Although this Guide provides a framework for assessing uncertainty, it cannot ubstitute for critical thinking, intellectual honesty, and professional skill.

he evaluation of uncertainty is neither a routine task nor a purely mathematical one; it epends on detailed knowledge of the nature of the measureand and of the measuremen

he quality and utility of the uncertainty quoted for the result of a measurement therefo timately depend on the understanding, critical analysis, and integrity of those who ontribute to the assignment of its value.

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