HYPER-GEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION

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LEARNING GOALS
To study how Hyper-geometric distribution evolves To learn its properties To understand various examples

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N objects of strictly 2 distinct types or N Bernoulli trials M out of N of type I (N-M) out of N of type II

Sample of n selected from the N objects or trials Select with replacement Select without replacement

Probability distribution of X = number of units of type I in the sample of size n Binomial distribution (If selected with replacement)
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Hyper-geometric distribution (If selected without replacement)

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Example
Suppose 100 students are enrolled for a course in business analytics Of these, 20 have a background in Statistics Suppose we randomly pick 10 students from this cohort What is the probability that 3 out of these 10 would have a background in Statistics? total ways of choosing 10 students from the entire class There are How many ways are there to choose 3 students with background in Statistics, out of the 20 such students in the class? Now, for each of these combinations, there are ways of choosing the remaining students of the sample, from the set of students who do not have a background in Statistics ways of choosing 3 students with Statistics background Hence, there are ways and 7 without Statistics background, out of the total . =

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Formulating the PMF

This example is nothing but a hyper-geometric distribution! Notice that,
N=100 Type I objects or success of the trial is considered to be a student with Statistics background M=20 and (N-M)=80 We are drawing a sample of size 10 n=10 We are interested in the probability that; of these 10, 3 have a background in Statistics X=3

Referring to our earlier formulation, we can state that = =

where Max(0, n N M ) min (, )and , , > 0 This is the probability distribution for a variable X following Hyper-geometric distribution with parameters (N, M, n) Denoted as ~(, , )

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Pictorial representation
Population N

n k Sample n-k

N-M

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Assumptions and statistics

the PMF of Hyper-geometric distribution is defined under certain assumptions:
The population is finite Population units are distinctly of two types Sampling is done without replacement

For ~(, , ), = =
()() ()

Important property: The idea is, if the value of N is very large, it does not matter any further, whether we replace the drawn sample or not As
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Further examples
An official survey has recorded that only M out of the total N villages in a particular district, have their own supply of potable drinking water. For my field work, I am visiting n villages tomorrow, without any prior knowledge about the villages with and without drinking water. What are the chances that I at least once during the day, I will get to drink water from the village I am visiting? In a shipment of 1000 computer monitors, 7 are defective. Suppose a manager checks 50 monitors, every time a new shipment of 1000 is to be sent out. What is the chance that 10 of these would be defective? Suppose the India office of a global consulting firm accepts N projects every year, out of which M are based out of a foreign country. Every employee at the senior manager level works on n projects during any particular year. Then, what is the probability that one of the recently promoted senior managers would get a chance to work on k international projects next year?
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Thank you

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