Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Wimal Nanayakkara
Survey Year
Note: International poverty figures are based on PovcalNet: the on-line tool for poverty measurement, developed by the Development Research Group of the World Bank; Income Poverty HC (National),DCS; Multidimensional poverty computations based on HIES2009/10 and DHS2006/07,DCS. {US$1.25 is the PL which is being used to compare the poverty levels between countries by the international agencies (WB, UNDP, etc.} The number of persons between US$1.25 and US$2.00 in SL is estimated to be 4 3.8 million in 2009/10
Poverty Headcount Based on International Poverty Lines and National Poverty Line 1990 to 2010
60
50
The Poverty HC based on US$ 1.25 Is lower than the HC based on National Poverty Line; The gap between them has reduced with time US$ 2.00 per day per Person
40
20
US$ 1.25 per day per person US$ 1.00 per day per person
HIES 1990/91 5.19 15.01 48.4 26.1 HIES 1995/96 6.11 16.32 45.71 28.8 HIES 2002 5.46 13.95 38.9 22.7 HIES 2006/07 1.6 7.04 28.35 15.2 HIES 2009/10 1.1 4.11 23.04 8.9
5
10
The Poverty HC based on US$ 1.25 Is lower than the HC based on National Poverty Line The gap between them, has reduced with time
HIES 2009/10
Poverty Headcount Based on International Poverty Lines and National Poverty Line
HIES 1990/91
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
HIES 1995/96
HIES 2006/07
HIES 2002
<US$1.25
<US$ 2.00
National P- Line
Measuring Income Poverty in Sri Lanka Poverty Measure Used: Absolute Poverty-This measure is used, as the poverty over time or across regions can be compared easily In this approach, a consumption bundle, which includes food items needed to meet the minimum nutritional requirements (2030k.cal per day per person) and other basic needs. This is called the Basket of Basic Needs The cost of this Basket is considered as the Income Poverty Line, which varies across time and across regions Most of the countries use Absolute Poverty and the Cost of Basic Needs approach to determine the Poverty Line
7
MDG on Poverty Already achieved in all sectors, except in the Estate sector . This sector is also on tract to achieve before the target year 2015
35.0 40.0
Estate 11.4 32.0 30.0 38.4 20.5
10.0
15.0
Urban 5.3 6.7 7.9 14.0 16.3
20.0
25.0
30.0
Rural 9.4 15.7 24.7 30.9 29.4
45.0
Multidimensional Poverty(MDP) MDP is a measure of acute poverty, which reveals the combination of deprivations that batter a household at the same time Multidimensional Poverty Index offers a valuable complement to the traditional Income Poverty MDP is measured using three (3)dimensions: Health (H), Education (E) and Standard of Living (SL). These are measured using 10 indicators Each dimension is equally weighted (10/3) and each indicator is equally weighted within each dimension (H-10/6, E-10/6 & SL-10/18) If a household (HH) is deprived of any of the 10 indicators (given in the next slide), the corresponding weight is added for that particular HH If the sum of the weights exceeds 3 (i.e. 30% of the deprivations), such HHs are considered to be in Multidimensional Poverty All the Members in such households are considered to be Multidimensionally Poor 9
DHS-2006/07 10 Indicators
1 At least one member of the
HIES-2009/10 10 Indicators
Calorie (energy) consumption of the household is less than 80% of the requirement & Food Ratio more than 60%
1.67
household is
Health
malnourished
Head of the Household chronically ill or disabled 3 No one in household has completed five years of No one in household has completed five schooling years of schooling 4 At least one school-age child not enrolled in school At least one school-age child not enrolled in school 5 Household has no Electricity Household has no Electricity
6 Household has no access to clean drinking water 7 Household has no access to adequate sanitation 8 Household has dirty (mud/dung) floor 9 Household uses firewood, charcoal or dung as
Education
Living Conditions
Household has no access to clean drinking water Household has no access to adequate sanitation Household has dirty (mud/dung) floor Household living in a shanty/line room
one of : radio, TV, telephone, bicycle, motor bicycle more than one of : radio, TV, telephone, 10 or refrigerator bicycle, motor bicycle or refrigerator
Sri Lanka Kegalle Ratnapura Monaragala Baddulla Polonnaruwa Anuradhapura Puttalam Kurunegala Trincomalee Ampara Batticaloa Vavuniya Jaffna Hamabantota Matara Galle Nuwara Eliya Matale Kandy Kalutara Gampaha Colombo 0
3.3 3.8 3.7 5.3 5.7 2.8 2.6 3.9 2.7 3.6 5.9 6
Multidimensional Poverty HC is very much lower than the Income Poverty HC in Sri Lanka
15 20 25
10
Monaragala
15
Baddulla
10
Matale
Polonnaruwa
Nuwara Eliya
Anuradhapura
Galle
Matara Hamabantota
Lagging Districts in 2006/07Monaragala & Nuwara Eliya, followed by Ratnapura, Badulla and Matale .
40
35
Nuwara Eliya *
*Monaragala
30
*Ratnapura
Income Poverty Headcount (%)
25
*Badulla Kegalle *
20
Kandy *
*Kurunegala
*Matale
15
Kalutara *
*Puttalam
*Polonnaruwa *Batticaloa
10
*Gampaha Anuradhapura
*Colombo
Ampara
Batticaloa HC was an underestimate in 2006/07 as the sample did not represent entire district as some of the areas were not accessible
0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0
Multidimensional Poverty Headcount (%)
13
Lagging Districts in 2009/10 Batticaloa & Jaffna, followed by Puttalam, Badulla & Ratnapura. [ Size of the disc indicates the share of people in MDP] Situation changed completely in 2009/10, showing significant reductions in poverty in Monaragala & Nuwara Eliya
Although Colombo & Gampaha, show the lowest incidence of MDP, the share is around (6.5%) the same level as in Batticaloa & in Jaffna.
14
Around one million have managed to escape poverty between 2006/07 & 2009/10
However, a large proportion of them are still at risk of slipping back For example, around 800,000 are within 10 % above the Income Poverty line, indicating that they still at risk of slipping back, due any economic shocks Multidimensional Poverty also show similar situation: For example, if households exceeding 20% of the deprivations, are considered to be in Multidimensional Poverty, instead of those households exceeding 30% (which is the usual level considered in estimating MDP), there is a significant increase (estimated 1.9 million increase )in the incidence MDP All these facts confirms that there is a significant number of people who could be vulnerable, as they are too close to the poverty line and therefore are at risk of slipping into poverty
15
Changes in Income Poverty Headcount, when poverty line increased by 10% or 20% - HIES 2009/10
Colombo
Ratnapura Monaragala
Gampaha Kalutara
Baddulla
20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0
Kandy
Polonnaruwa
Matale
Anuradhapura
0.0
Nuwara Eliya
Puttalam
Galle
Kurunegala
Matara
In some districts the increases are significant, while in districts such as Colombo, Gampaha & Vavuniya, increases are marginal
Hamabantota
HCI
HCI-PLinc10p
HCI-PLinc20p
16
Gampaha Kalutara Kandy Matale Nuwara Eliya Galle Matara Hamabantota Jaffna Vavuniya
If HH exceeding 20% of deprivations are considered additional 1.9 million will fall into MDP
MDPoor-HC (20%)
MDPoor-HC (40%)
17
Socio-economic Groups (SEGs) HHs in HIES-2009/10 were divided into 11 Socio-economic Groups, based on the Main Occupation Category of the Head of HH HHs headed by 1 - Administrators, Senior Officials & Professionals; 2 Technical & Associated Professionals; 3 - Clerical, Services, Sales & Similar Workers; 4 Skilled Agricultural, Forestry & Fishery Workers; 5 - Craft & related trade workers, plant & machine operators, etc. ; 6 Non-Agricultural Labourers & similar workers and 7 Agriculture, Forestry Labourers, were considered as Socio-economic Groups were considered, as SEGs with employed heads of HHs The Other SEGs: HHs headed by either, 8 an unemployed person, 9 a household workers; 10 a person who is not able to or too old to work and 11 a person whose occ. is not properly specified (as the last group accounts for only 0.9%, it could be ignored) Any member in a HH belonging to the 10 groups is considered to be in that particular SEG 18
Income Poverty - HC(%), Number in Poverty & Share of Poor by Socio-economic Group HIES 2009/10 Poverty No. of poor Share Socio-economic Group (SEG)
(classified considering the occupation or activity of the Head of the Household) 1 .Administrators, Senior Officials & Professionals 2. Technical & associated Professionals 3. Clerical, Services, Sales & similar workers 4. Skilled Agricultural, Forestry & Fishery Workers 5. Craft & related Trade Workers, Plant & Mach. Operators 6. Non Agricultural Labourers & similar workers 7. Agricultural, Forestry & Fishery Labourer 8. Unemployed person 9. Household worker 10. Unable/ Too old to work All Groups HC (%) persons 3.0 3.6 4.3 10.1 6.6 18.1 15.0 10.5 6.4 9.7 8.9 55,242 50,404 59,520 350,659 208,523 426,836 148,031 49,522 117,874 323,410 1,806,461
of Poor (%) 3.1 2.8 3.3 19.4 11.5 23.6 8.2 2.7 6.5 17.9
19
100.0
Multidimensional Poverty - HC(%), Number in Poverty & Share of Poor by Socio-economic Group HIES 2009/10 Poverty No. of poor Share Socio-economic Group (SEG)
(classified considering the occupation or activity of the Head of the Household) 1 .Administrators, Senior Officials & Professionals 2. Technical & associated Professionals 3. Clerical, Services, Sales & similar workers 4. Skilled Agricultural, Forestry & Fishery Workers* 5. Craft & related Trade Workers, Plant & Mach. Operators 6. Non Agricultural Labourers & similar workers* 7. Agricultural, Forestry & Fishery Labourer 8. Unemployed person 9. Household worker 10. Unable/ Too old to work* All Groups HC (%) persons 2.3 2.7 1.9 3.9 2.5 8.1 7.7 7.2 4.5 7.3 4.7 42,180 36,970 26,417 134,529 78,750 190,924 75,895 34,006 83,332 243,048 956,588
of Poor (%) 4.4 3.9 2.8 14.1 8.2 20.0 7.9 3.6 8.7 25.4
20
100.0
Income Poverty & Multidimensional Poverty Headcounts by Socio-Economic Groups (based on the occupation of the Head of Household)-HIES 2009/10
Administrators, Senior officials & Professionals Not properly specified
20.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0
Household Worker
Craft & related trade workers, Plant & machine operators etc. Non Agricultural Labourers & similar workers
Percentage of Persons in Income Poverty Percentage of Persons in Multidimensional Poverty Source: Computations of author based HIES-2009/10, DCS
21
Share of Persons (size of the disc indicates the share of the MD poor people in each Socio-Economic Group out of the Total MD people in the Country) by Socio-economic Groups
8.9%
12 Not Properly Specified (This could be Ignored) Unable/Too old to Work Agricultural, Forestry & Fishery Labourer
10
1.1% 25.4%
8 7.9% Household Worker 6 Technical & associated Professionals 4 3.9% 3.6% Non agricultural labourers & similar workers
20%
4.7 %
Skilled agricultural, Forestry & Fishery Workers Craft & related trade workers, Plant & machine operators, etc.
8.2%
2 2.8% Clerical, Services, Sales & similar workers 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0
& Professionals
5.0
Change in Multidimensional Poverty Headcount with 20% or more deprivations & 40% or More deprivations, instead of recommended 30% or more deprivations
Administrators, Senior officials & Professionals
25
20 15 10
Household Worker
5 0
Unemployed
Agri. Forestry & Fishery Labourers Non Agricultural Labourers & similar workers MDPoorHC (30%) MDPoorHC (20%)
Craft & related trade workers, Plant & machine operators etc.
MDPoorHC (40%)
23
Kegalle
Matale
P'ruwa
M'gala R'pura
A'pura
Kgalal
H'Tota
Kandy
Trinco
Jaffna
1.7 2.3 9.1 2.1 4.2 0.0 0.0 3.6 2.7 5.8 0.0 9.7 8.2 0.0 3.4 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 18.9 0.0 3.6 3.0 0.0 0.0 2.8 9.6 1.2 0.0 6.1 6.2 0.3 0.0 8.2 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 0.0 0.0 12.3 7.8 1.9 3.7 3.6 3.4 1.7 5.8 4.3
Clerical, Service, Sales & similar workers (59,520 or 3.3%) Skilled Agricultural, Forestry & Fishery Workers (350,659 or
1.3 0.1 3.2 5.7 3.5 0.0 3.7 6.8 0.0 4.4 0.0 4.2 13.8 2.3 11.4 1.8 8.3 0.0 9.9
19.4%)
Craft & related trade workers, Plant & machine operators etc.
4.4 5.4 4.0 17.5 8.6 8.6 12.5 10.8 4.4 16.6 0.0 23.9 21.7 13.6 9.1 8.3 3.0 5.8 12.0 14.2 9.9 11.1 10.1
1.7 4.9 1.9 5.3 3.2 14.7 5.0 5.9 6.9 15.0 6.5 15.9 4.6 16.1 11.8 12.9 0.0 7.6 11.0
Non Agricultural Labourers & similar workers (426,836 or
23.6%)
Agri. Forestry & Fishery Labourers
20. 9.8 10.0 9.5 16.7 30.4 20.6 20.0 18.4 20.9 24.6 5.8 37.9 15.4 21.9 21.7 20.7 23.5 5.3 15.5 25.4 8 18.7 18.1 16. 8.8 13.6 16.0 14.2 26.5 5.0 16.3 18.9 26.4 29.1 0.0 34.7 11.1 20.6 15.7 11.1 0.0 22.2 13.5 19.6 1 16.9 15.0 21. 5.8 0.0 8.3 7.2 0.0 0.0 16.4 33.0 10.2 0.0 0.0 10.5 0.0 23.7 8.2 18.1 0.0 0.0 34.5 31.6 1 24.1 10.5 12. 4.2 2.5 7.5 7.2 7.7 1.7 4.2 9.1 6.0 22.4 0.0 10.7 7.6 2.3 8.8 10.1 7.4 5.3 7.1 14.5 2 2.1 6.4 12. 5.5 2.8 7.5 12.5 15.7 11.3 14.1 12.7 3.4 7.8 0.0 6.6 8.6 8.9 13.4 2.4 8.6 8.9 19.3 17.3 5 19.8 9.7 58. 1.2 0.0 1.4 0.0 87.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.3 0.0 0.0 15.4 76.1 0.0 0.0 38.8 0.0 1 0.0 14.0 10.24 3.6 3.9 6.0 10.3 11.4 7.6 10.3 11.2 6.9 16.1 2.3 20.3 11.8 11.7 11.7 10.5 5.7 5.8 13.3 14.5 4 10.8 8.9
(148,031 or 8.2%)
Unemployed (49,522 or 17.9%) Household Worker (117,874 or
6.5%)
Unable/Too old to work
(323,410 or 17.9%)
*Not properly specified
Total (1,806,461)
All
High concentrations of people in Income Poverty (Yellow>=10,000& <20,000; Blue >=20,000 persons & < 30,000; Red >=30,000 persons) Administrators, Senior officials & Professionals (55,242 or 3.1%) Technicians & associated professionals (50,404 or 2.8%) Clerical, Service, Sales & similar workers (59,520 or 3.3%) Skilled Agricultural, Forestry & Fishery Workers (350,659 or 19.4%) Craft & related trade workers, Plant & machine operators etc. (208,523) Non Agricultural Labourers & similar workers (426,836 or 23.6%) Agri. Forestry & Fishery Labourers (148,031 or 8.2%) Unemployed (49.522 or 2.7%)
Unable/Too old to work (323,410 or 17.9%) Not properly specified (16,441 or 0.9%) Total (1,806,461) Analysis based on HIES-2009/10
86831 109 93866 72029 111 20614 34491 12008 16196 33066 21785 2635 4489 0 2707 0 0 40265 4947 1965 30782 2376 7204 23836 0 4131 22374 5956 23837 4700 5949 7081 4763 2740 2341 8326 0 0 0 5739 2382 6232 0 733 3303 9798 4747 8126 2778 3403 2863 0 0 3242 7890 3409 1453 6245 3910 840 0 3641 0 7150 8663 6793 8820 10140 13334 0 15117 9235 4262 7448 9027 0 5118 8737 3183 10372 13827 1598 5717 7959 2020 3645 142210 55552 167 4 58207 0 112869 93567 40618 87920 3982 109242 175 72979 0 0 0 0 0 0 14215 29363 15406 11351 20876 17342 8196 30361 575 47080 9586 17169 47995 22976 19800 1384 15063 8480 19480 0 11073 6005 0 6780 30269 29211 11347 4138 1487 21680 7930 22053 3945 10073 1672 8216 8940 6489 6661 14920 2527 10965 3985 5057 27981 22846 0 2548 10558 113817 179 6 69054 0 4669 15721 184971 161 2 87519 728 7 46978 0 1428 8260 3044 25102 11101 12941 26927 19759 6760 12060 0 15808 29417 6874 32612 8881 9943 7791 29867 34173 32816 2946 172 3162 4811 536 0 1981 2296 0 772 0 1654 6753 902 18744 682 5205 0 3518 880 629 0 0 3118 15234 342 0 3636 4086 205 0 880 3415 0 0 0 2540 0 0 10770 1181 2202 6554 9253 10197 1994 2022 0 0 1147 939 3659 0 4200 2823 0 3251 0 1423 0 0 5668 0
Colombo Gampaha Kalutara Kandy Matale Nuwara Eliya Galle Matara Hambantota Jaffna Vavuniya Batticaloa Ampara Trincomalee Kurunegala Puttalam Anuradhapur Polonnaruwa Baddulla Monaragala
25
Ratnapura
31563 1619 2249 3001 18189 10767 15093 3878 59520 2793 50404 2111 55242
Kegalle Total
Socio-Economic Groups
Administrators, Senior officials & Professionals
0.0 5.7
2.7 5.8
0.0
6.2 16.6
5.6
1.6
0.0
Puttalam
Vavuniya
Kalutara
0.2
0.0 0.0
6.2
Technicians & associated professionals Clerical, Service, Sales & similar workers Skilled Agricultural, Forestry & Fishery Workers Craft & related trade workers, Plant & machine operators etc. Non Agricultural Labourers & similar workers Agri. Forestry & Fishery Labourers Unemployed Household Worker Unable/Too old to work Not properly specified Total
1.9 0.0
4.5 3.6
0.0 0.5
3.2 0.0
5.3 2.0
5.7 0.0
1.9 6.0
0.0 2.0
2.9 2.1
0.0 13.7
3.2
2.5
2.6
2.8
3.2
3.3 5.3
3.3
3.3 0.8
0.1 4.4
0.6 15.1
3.1
2.8
3.1
5.6
1.5
9.1 3.8
2.6
5.2 4.4 1.1 10.8 6.4 11.8 4.2 4.8 20. 6.1 5 0.0 9.9 3.8 3.7
4.0 15.3
3.8 15.0
1.7
6.2
3.8 11.7
7.9
4.4 11.6 8.8 0.0 9.4 0.0 3.1 3.8 2.9 6.1 4.4 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.3 3.7 3.8
1.5 29.5 11.4 6.9 1.5 7.5 19.3 0.0 17.0 34.0 11.4 4.3 5.3 17.3 0.0 0.0 3.3 11.5 0.0 4.2 0.8
4.8 16.0 12.7 7.7 0.0 12.2 3.7 7.2 3.9 1.2 2.1 4.5
2.5 3.9 5.5 10.4 9.4 66. 1.2 0.0 4.0 13.3 3 2.7 2.6 2.8 5.9 5.7
5.5 10.9 9.5 15.8 11.9 8.6 7.3 0.0 3.5 0.0 47.8 4.2 6.5 0.0 4.5 7.9 27.3 9.0 6.3 3.7 4.7
26
Craft & related trade workers, Plant & machine operators etc.
Household Worker (83,332 or 8.7%)) Clerical, Service, Sales & similar workers (26,417 or 2.8%) Non Agricultural Labourers & similar workers (190,924 or 20%) 5,000<10,000; Blue>=10,000<15,000 & Red >= 15,000 ) Administrators, Senior officials & Professionals (42,180 or 4.4%) Unemployed (34,006 or 3.5%) Technicians & associated professionals (36,970 or 3.9%) Agri. Forestry & Fishery Labourers (75,895 or) Skilled Agricultural, Forestry & Fishery Workers (134,529 or 14.1%)
64302
Colombo Gampaha Kalutara Kandy Matale Nuwara Eliya Galle Matara Hambantota Jaffna Vavuniya Batticaloa Ampara Trincomalee Kurunegala
61898
33557
82137
27591
Total (956,588) Analysis Based on HIES 2009/10 Source: Computations of author based HIES-2009/10, DCS
41141 40551 31938 19641 62903 2459 61017 22180 17729 93417 68362 29188 17406 55192 21400 71638
Puttalam
4620 5029 11042 5445 22619 1892 2429 3212 909 599 1165 629 2767 0 2260 181 812 3776 786 10295 5222 997 11376 2639 5606 1366 3042 3659 1338 6392 10421 4467 13176 7923 19716 3715 0 0 508 185 484 0 3972 0 1699 121 0 0 1851 1764
13667
956588 243048
1624
83332
350
34006
2251
5815
75895 190924
946
78750
4004
134529
632
26417
0
36970
211
42180
Kegalle Total
Contribution of Deprivations to Multidimensional PovertySri Lanka - 2009/10 [%Contributions given below are only for the MD Poor (4.7%)]
[Not receiving at least 80% of energy requirement & Food Ratio>60%] 25% [Having a Dirty Floor] 6% [No Electricity] 8% [No Access to clean drinking water] 3% [No Access to Adequate Sanitation] 7% Inadequate Assets 8%
Multidimensional Poverty - Relative Contribution of the Three Dimensions by Sector & Districts - 2009/10
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Relative Contribution of Health Dimension Relative Contribution of Education Dimension Relative Contribution of the Dimension on Living Conditions Source: Computations of author based HIES-2009/10, DCS
29
Multidimensional Poverty - Relative Contribution of the Three Dimensions by SEG 2009/10 100%
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Not receiving at least 80% of Health Dimension energy requirement& Food Ratio>60%
31
THANK YOU
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