Om Prakash Yadav

omjiyadav@gmail.com

W
ill the theory of Clash of Civilisations propounded by Samuel P.
Huntington be proved wrong? It largely depends on how does the
Obama’s Policy towards Muslim world especially Middle-East, Far-East
and West Asia work. If it is a fiasco then perhaps even the last hope of restoration
of peace in these strife torn areas would fade for few centuries.

The war ravaged Middle East country Lebanon went to poll after Obama’s
famous Cairo University’s speech and defying the predictions of most of the
opinion polls, 14 March alliance of Saad Hariri, son of late Rafik Hariri has won 71
seats in the just concluded elections. Hezbollah on the other hand could bag only
57 seats paving way for its role as an opposition. Many strategists elucidate this
victory as success of ‘Obama doctrine’.

The total number of seat in Lebanon Parliament, the Assemblee Nationale

is 128 and by winning 71 seats, stage is all set for Saad Hariri to become the next
Prime Minister of Lebanon within a couple of days from now. Saad Hariri is
considered close to US and other western powers and is a moderate. His father
Rafik Hariri was killed on 14 February, 2005 allegedly by Syrian govt. Many
including his son, the PM in waiting Saad Hariri feel that Rafik’s murder plot was
hatched in Syria and there was some sort of connivance of Syrian government in
this assassination into which investigation is still going on. Both Syria and Iran
wanted Hezbollah to win so that Israel can be haunted. From this angle,
Hezbollah’s defeat is seen as lessening of impact of hardliner in the region.

Many experts term this outcome as ‘surprise election result’ because the
general perception prevailed on the eve of this election was that mandate would
be a fractured one, and either it would be a hung Parliament or Hezbollah would
get a thin majority. The apprehension in international community ran high
because victory of Hezbollah which enjoys staunch support from Iran and Syria,
would have stirred the direction of politics in the region in different direction. The
peace process which got a fresh lease of life with Obama Netanyahu is perhaps
the last hope of pressing the reset button. The region can longer afford hostilities
as it has already taken heavy toll both economy and life.

The result was taken by pleasant surprise in many parts of the world. The
question that is coming to everyone’s mind is that whether this result is an
endorsement of Obama’s Middle-East policy or it is simply a transient phase in
political cycle of Lebanon?

Obama’s speech is being considered as a milestone in Middle East politics

and one cannot deny the possible role of this speech in the outcome of this result.
Undoubtedly Cairo speech marks the beginning of a tectonic shift in America’s
established stand on Middle East. Obama’s repeated utterance on the ‘Two State
Solution’ has been taken in the Arab world as a major policy change of USA vis-a-
vis Lebanon-Israel. Obama categorically stated in this speech that both Israel and
Palestine has ‘right of peaceful co-existence’. He also disapproved of Israel’s
settlement in Gaza and West Bank which actually sent a wave of applause. It has
undoubtedly perturbed Benjamin Netanyahu because bibi Netanyahu is
considered a hardliner and his accession was generally not liked by most of the
Arab countries. Even the International community also went pessimist with

1
Netanyahu becoming PM of Israel. The drift from American stereotype stand on
Israel-Palestine may therefore be a harbinger of peace in the region. Obama has
dared to show that he cares and really wants peace process to succeed. His
speech has generally taken by Arab world with applause mixed with a little bit of
caution pluswait and watch. But, everyone thinks, beginning has been made.

Lebanon has a history of incessant hostilities. It has seen as many wars as

any normal country witness in entire history on its civilization. There was a time
when people across the world called Beirut as a ‘ghost city’. Quiet recently
Lebanon witnessed a fierce war with Israel known as ‘July war’ which continued
from 12th July to 14 August, 2006 in which Hezbollah of Lebanon fought against
Israeli forces. This war left hundreds of civilian dead and thousand injured. This
war razed major part of Lebanon and this country suffered from unprecedented
humanitarian crisis. The scars of this devastation are still unhealed and common
people of this country, like any other citizen, do want peace and political stability
and it seems that Obama has been successful to some extent in instilling some
hopes in the state of despair. It is however premature to say that Obama’s one
speech has defused the sense of Anti-Americanism in Arab world.Obama has
miles to go before he could achieve success in his Middle-East venture. He has to
face the hindrance of Jew’s lobby in Congress as well as in US administration. The
business community is still dominated by Israelis and they have an indomitable
presence in scientist community also. Nonetheless, a good being has been made
and the results in Lebanon have definitely shown some sort of endorsement of
Obama’s gesture.

This election, though took place in a geographically tiny country, but its
political significance would not be confined in its boundary. The ripples of hope
would hopefully reach across the continent and avert the clash of civilisation
which seems imminent. Thus this election though held in Lebanon, is a mandate
of Obama.

Within a couple of days from now, the results of Iranian Parliament would
be also declared and if Mamoud Ahmadinejad is defeated and Mir Hussain
Moussavi wins in this election would be another endorsement of Obama’s policy
towards Muslim world especially West Asian, Near East and Middle-East. Later is
by and large considered moderate and it is being considered that Moussavi can
reset relations with America. In fact Obama’s prestige and America’s future
foreign policy are at stake. If Obama fails in this experiment, his problems at
home is likely to increase because he is already facing resistance and opposition
at home