Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
February 2013
ii
Contents
1.
Inflation in Brief
2.
City- wise Inflation
....................
3.
Income Group- wise Inflation
.
4.
Weighted Contribution
5.
Inflation Diffusion Index
6.
Domestic Commodity Prices
7.
Global Commodity Prices
8.
Seasonal Adjustment in CPI
...
Annexure A
Table A1
CPI Inflation by Groups
Table A2
Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) of CPI Basket
Table A3
Top and Bottom 15 Contributors to CPI Inflation (YoY)
Table A3.1 Top and Bottom 15 Contributors to CPI Inflation (MoM)
Table A3.2 Top Fifteen Contributors to CPI Inflation (YoY)
Table A3.3 Top Ten Contributors to CPI Food Inflation (YoY)
Table A3.4 Top Ten Contributors to CPI Non-Food Inflation (YoY)
Table A4
Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) - Selected CPI Items
Table A5
City-wise CPI Inflation by Income Groups
Table A6
City- wise CPI Inflation (YoY)
Table A7
Income Group-wise Inflation
Table A8
SPI Item-wise Price Movements
Table A9
Distribution of Price Changes (YoY)-WPI Items
Table A10
Consumer Price Index Numbers by Major Groups and Selected
Commodities
Table A11
Wholesale Price Index Numbers by Major Groups and Selected Commodities
Table A12
Price Indices
Table A13
International Commodity Prices/ Indices
Table A14
CPI Data Series- Original and Seasonally Adjusted
Table A15
CPI Food Data Series- Original and Seasonally Adjusted
Table A16
CPI Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors
Table A17
CPI Food Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors
Table A18
CPI Month-on-Month % Change- Original & Seasonally Adjusted
Table A19
CPI Food Month-on-Month % Change- Original & Seasonally Adjusted
Figure A1
Figure A2
Figure A3
Figure A4
Annexure B
Page
1
6
7
9
10
11
11
12
16
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28-29
30-31
32
33
34
35
36
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43-46
Team Leader
Behzad Ali Ahmad
Team Members
Muhammad Ashfaq
Syed Salman Bukhari
iv
Assistant Director
muhammad.ashfaqch@sbp.org.pk
Assistant Director
salman.bukhari@sbp.org.pk
Review
Inflation in Brief
1. Headline CPI inflation (2007-08=100) is recorded at 7.4 percent on year-onyear basis in February 2013 as compared to 8.1 percent in the previous
month and 11.0 percent in the corresponding month of last year.
2. CPI inflation on month-on-month basis is recorded at -0.3 percent in
February 2013 as compared to 1.7 percent in the previous month and 0.3
percent in the corresponding month of last year. Seasonally adjusted monthon-month CPI inflation decreased to 0.5 percent in February 2013 as
compared 1.1 percent in the previous month.
3. Core inflation (trimmed) on year-on-year basis decreased to 9.2 percent in
February 2013 as compared to 9.9 percent in the previous month and it was
10.7 percent in the corresponding month of last year.
4. On month-on-month basis, the Core inflation (trimmed) decreased to 0.2
percent in February 2013 as compared to 1.0 percent in previous month. It
was 0.5 percent in the corresponding month of last year.
5. Non-food, non-energy inflation measured by CPI Core (NFNE) on year-onyear basis decreased to 9.6 percent in February 2013 as compared to 10.0
percent in previous month. It was 10.7 percent in the corresponding month of
last year.
6. Core NFNE inflation on month-on-month basis decreased to 0.4 percent in
February 2013 when compared to 1.2 percent a month earlier. The 0.7
percent rate of change in Core NFNE was observed in February 2012.
7. WPI inflation on year-on-year basis decreased to 8.3 percent in February
2013 when compared to 8.6 percent a month earlier. During February 2012,
WPI inflation was recorded at 7.2%.
1
General
Food
Core Inflation
Non-food
NFNE*
Trimmed
WPI
Inflation
SPI**
Inflation
YoY
Feb-12
11.0
0.3
10.5
-0.7
11.5
1.0
10.7
0.7
10.7
0.5
7.2
0.6
8.3
0.2
Mar-12
10.8
1.2
9.8
1.5
11.5
0.9
10.9
1.0
10.5
0.8
4.5
0.7
8.4
1.2
Apr-12
11.3
1.8
10.7
2.2
11.6
1.6
10.9
1.4
11.0
1.3
3.8
1.8
9.7
1.8
May-12 12.3
1.1
11.3
0.2
13.0
1.9
11.2
0.8
11.7
0.5
7.1
2.1
10.1
0.5
Jun-12
11.3
0.0
10.3
-0.2
12.0
0.2
11.5
0.7
11.1
0.5
6.4
0.0
11.9
1.8
Jul-12
9.6
-0.2
9.1
1.8
10.0
-1.7
11.3
1.0
10.7
0.7
7.2
0.4
7.3
-2.2
Aug-12
9.1
0.9
8.5
0.9
9.4
0.9
10.8
0.3
10.6
0.4
7.7
1.0
7.3
1.4
Sep-12
8.8
0.8
7.6
0.7
9.7
0.9
10.5
0.4
10.4
0.5
7.8
0.3
7.5
0.9
Oct-12
7.7
0.4
5.8
-0.1
9.0
0.7
10.2
1.2
9.7
0.7
7.5
0.1
6.2
-0.5
Nov-12
6.9
-0.4
5.3
-0.3
8.1
-0.4
9.8
0.2
8.8
0.2
7.7
-0.4
5.5
0.0
Dec-12
7.9
0.2
7.7
0.0
8.1
0.4
9.8
0.5
9.2
0.3
9.6
0.4
7.4
0.3
Jan-13
8.1
1.7
8.1
1.9
8.1
1.5
10.0
1.2
9.9
1.0
8.6
1.2
7.1
1.6
Feb-13
7.4
-0.3
7.4
-1.3
7.4
0.4
9.6
0.4
9.2
0.2
8.3
0.3
6.8
-0.1
Feb-12
16
12
0
20
Feb-13
f: SPI
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
Jan-13
e: WPI
5
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Apr-12
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
YoY
Dec-12
20
-4
Nov-12
Oct-12
-3
Sep-12
-2
May-12
b: CPI Food
Oct-12
Sep-12
-1
Aug-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
11
Jun-12
Jul-12
13
Jun-12
Apr-12
15
May-12
c: NFNE
Apr-12
5
Feb-12
Mar-12
Mar-12
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
11
Feb-12
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
Apr-12
May-12
13
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
May-12
Apr-12
May-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
a: CPI
Mar-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
15
Feb-12
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
13
11
9
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
15
4
13
11
2
7
-1
-2
-3
-4
16
12
0
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
4
Feb-13
d: WPI
Dec-12
Oct-12
Aug-12
10
Jun-12
28
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Jun-11
May-11
Apr-11
YoY
Apr-12
10
Feb-12
15
Oct-11
15
Dec-11
20
Jun-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
a: CPI
Aug-11
b: NFNE
Apr-11
20
Feb-11
Feb-13
Dec-12
Oct-12
Aug-12
Jun-12
Apr-12
Feb-12
Dec-11
Oct-11
Aug-11
Jun-11
Apr-11
Feb-11
20
12mma
15
10
28
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
e: SPI
Feb-10
d: WPI
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
Feb-13
Aug-12
-4
Nov-12
-4
May-12
-2
Feb-12
-2
Aug-11
Nov-11
May-11
Feb-11
Nov-10
Aug-10
May-10
b: NFNE
Feb-10
Feb-13
Nov-12
Aug-12
May-12
Feb-12
Nov-11
Aug-11
May-11
Feb-11
Nov-10
Aug-10
May-10
Feb-13
Dec-12
Oct-12
Aug-12
Jun-12
Apr-12
Feb-12
Dec-11
Oct-11
Aug-11
Jun-11
Apr-11
Feb-11
Dec-10
Oct-10
Aug-10
Jun-10
Apr-10
Feb-10
a: CPI
-2
-4
e: SPI
180
20
170
16
160
12
8
2010-11
2010-11
May
June
April
March
February
January
2011-12
June
May
April
March
February
January
December
June
May
April
February
January
December
November
October
September
July
March
2012-13
November
0
-4
October
September
August
2012-13
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
July
12
Percent
Percent
16
2011-12
2011-12
20
2010-11
December
July
May
June
April
2012-13
August
2011-12
March
January
February
December
October
2010-11
November
September
July
-4
August
120
October
130
November
140
September
150
August
Percent
2012-13
Overall CPI
Feb-13
YoY
11.0
MoM
1.7
YoY
8.1
MoM
-0.3
YoY
7.4
Islamabad
0.3
9.6
2.3
8.0
-0.5
7.1
Karachi
0.7
11.8
0.4
7.3
-0.2
6.3
Lahore
0.1
9.5
1.2
7.5
-1.0
6.3
Peshawar
1.3
9.1
3.1
9.5
-0.5
7.5
Quetta
0.5
10.8
1.1
8.0
-0.3
7.1
General
Food
Non-food
Feb-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Feb-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Feb-12 Jan-13 Feb-13
11.0
8.1
7.4
10.5
8.1
7.4
11.5
8.1
7.4
Up to Rs. 8,000
9.3
8.9
8.5
8.2
8.4
8.0
10.7
9.4
9.1
9.8
9.7
9.3
9.0
8.3
7.8
10.8
11.3
10.9
10.0
9.4
8.9
9.7
8.2
7.6
10.4
10.5
10.2
10.7
7.5
6.9
10.4
8.1
7.4
11.0
7.0
6.5
12.0
6.9
6.1
11.7
7.8
7.0
12.1
6.5
5.6
Feb-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Jan-13
Jan-13
Feb-13
Dec-12
Dec-12
Dec-12
Nov-12
Jul-12
Nov-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Oct-12
10
Oct-12
15
Sep-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
10
Aug-12
15
Aug-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
All Groups combined
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
10
4. Weighted Contribution
The weighted contribution of food group in the overall inflation slightly decreased to
41.59 percent during February 2013 from 41.94 percent in January 2013. It was 39.57
percent in February 2012.
The weighted contribution of non-food group showed increase to touch 58.41 percent
in February 2013 from 58.06 percent in January 2013.
Table 4.1 Weighted Contribution to CPI Inflation (YoY)
Housing, Water,
Elect, Gas &
Other Fuel
19.19
Transport
12.30
Education
3.73
Others
15.99
Period
Feb-12
Food
39.57
Clothing &
Footwear
9.23
Mar-12
38.15
10.69
18.96
12.82
3.79
15.59
Apr-12
40.06
9.63
18.88
12.79
4.01
14.62
May-12
38.26
9.17
23.72
10.54
3.49
14.82
Jun-12
38.05
9.65
25.43
6.22
3.60
17.04
Jul-12
40.17
11.54
15.53
9.68
3.66
19.42
Aug-12
39.99
12.01
12.97
12.64
3.85
18.55
Sep-12
36.69
11.86
13.06
16.16
3.86
18.38
Oct-12
32.26
13.20
14.34
15.11
4.52
20.57
Nov-12
32.78
14.79
15.75
10.05
4.90
21.74
Dec-12
40.58
14.29
13.76
8.43
4.39
18.56
Jan-13
41.94
13.53
11.88
10.07
4.20
18.38
Feb-13
41.59
15.24
12.70
8.00
3.93
18.53
General
51.0
57.6
53.1
55.6
41.4
41.4
48.6
54.7
39.6
49.6
51.4
37.6
41.6
40.2
37.6
47.8
44.2
38.3
19.1
33.0
49.6
14.2
-16.7 33.3
66.7
50.0
83.3
33.3
83.3
83.3
33.3
0.0
49.2
74.6
62.7
76.3
44.1
62.7
76.3
64.4
84.7
79.7
89.8
72.9
84.7
36.1
36.1
58.3
38.9
33.3
33.3
30.6
38.9
50.0
22.2
38.9
66.7
22.2
85.5
92.8
87.0
78.3
68.1
20.3
81.2
79.7
69.6
76.8
63.8
53.6
Health
41.0
38.5
25.6
30.8
41.0
33.3
23.1
41.0
23.1
33.3
23.1
30.8
17.9
Transport
55.8
79.1
48.8
44.2
20.9
39.5
41.9
37.2
48.8
11.6
37.2
44.2
46.5
Communication
33.3
16.7
41.7
8.3
50.0 -25.0
8.3
16.7
50.0
33.3
50.0
66.7
16.7
28.2
46.2
35.9
74.4
17.9
17.9
23.1
10.3
35.9
17.9
20.5
28.2
25.6
Education
50.0
56.3
50.0
31.3
0.0
25.0
43.8
31.3
43.8
12.5
25.0
6.3
25.0
83.3 100.0
Miscellaneous
77.1
74.3
51.4
54.3
48.6
60.0
60.0
54.3
80.0
65.7
65.7
51.4
51.4
NFNE
54.7
63.9
57.4
57.7
44.7
47.0
38.8
49.1
62.1
46.4
55.3
52.7
45.9
27.0
See annexure B (Technical Notes) for the definition of Inflation Diffusion Index.
10
Wheat
Wheat Flour Bag
Rice Basmati Sup. Qlty.
Pulse Masoor (Washed)
Pulse Moong (Washed)
Pulse Mash (Washed)
Pulse Gram
Vegetable Ghee (Loose)
Sugar Refined
Milk Fresh (Unboiled)
Tea- Tapal Danedar
Beef With Bone Av. Qlty.
Mutton Av. Qlty.
Chicken Farm Broiler (Live)
Eggs Farm
Potatoes
Onion
Tomatoes
Ginger
Garlic
10 Kg
10 Kg
Kg
Kg
Kg
Kg
Kg
Kg
Kg
Ltr
200 Gm
Kg
Kg
Kg
Doz
Kg
Kg
Kg
Kg
Kg
Jan-13
YoY MoM
Feb-13
YoY
MoM
0.72
0.81 22.57 11.32 22.40
0.50
0.19 21.13 10.35 20.05
5.82
0.50 26.03
3.61 27.81
-12.55 -0.46
-3.13
1.89
-1.18
-12.21 -2.69
-8.19
2.39
-5.20
-10.51 -1.64
-9.49 -0.34
-8.26
-1.77
0.32 45.03
0.94 43.16
0.53
0.91
0.42 -0.43
-0.18
-24.81 -3.72
3.13
0.06
4.92
18.61
0.31 11.52
0.08 11.50
9.48
0.00
9.98
0.00 14.42
15.12
0.53
6.51 -0.20
5.99
18.78
1.27
6.95
1.08
5.80
19.98
3.32
2.20 10.85
-5.93
39.02 -12.23
8.12
1.05 -11.55
-3.08 -1.91 25.33 -14.55 16.95
37.74 -8.08 -40.13 -7.62 -25.97
18.67 -4.67 27.49 61.12 16.09
-31.60
1.59
5.49
5.13 12.93
-48.76
1.03 19.67
4.42 22.12
0.67
-0.71
1.93
1.54
0.47
-0.29
-0.98
0.31
-2.05
0.29
4.03
0.05
0.18
-4.90
-28.20
-8.47
13.66
-13.19
8.75
3.10
Feb-12
YoY
3.2
-10.6
-19.2
14.9
-13.9
-52.7
Jan-13
MoM
4.0
3.4
2.5
4.5
3.9
-0.4
YoY
-0.5
9.9
0.1
-2.7
1.4
-15.4
Feb-13
MoM
2.7
0.7
5.0
3.1
0.7
2.6
YoY
MoM
-2.7
1.7
6.9
0.5
-0.9
1.4
-4.8
2.3
-3.0
-0.6
-11.0
4.9
Source: IMF
11
12
103
102
102
101
101
100
100
99
99
98
98
97
Feb-13
Oct-12
Dec-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Feb-12
Apr-12
Oct-11
Dec-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Feb-11
Apr-11
Oct-10
Dec-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Feb-10
Apr-10
97
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Average 100. 100. 100. 100. 100. 99.3 99.8 99.1 99.4 100. 99.7 99.6
Feb-13
Oct-12
Dec-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Feb-12
Apr-12
Oct-11
Dec-11
97
Jun-11
97
Aug-11
98
Feb-11
99
98
Apr-11
100
99
Oct-10
101
100
Dec-10
101
Jun-10
102
Aug-10
102
Feb-10
103
Apr-10
103
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Average 100.4 101.3101.6 101.9 101.3 99.06 99.62 98.07 98.81 99.69 99.1998.80
13
200
FY12
FY13
190
180
180
170
170
160
160
150
150
140
140
130
130
120
FY-10
200
190
FY11
FY12
FY13
120
Jul
200
FY11
FY12
FY13
190
FY11
FY12
FY13
190
180
180
170
170
160
160
150
150
140
140
130
130
120
120
Jul
14
FY-10
200
Jul
Seasonally Adjusted
2
1
0
-1
-2
Jan-13
Feb-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Jun-12
Apr-12
May-12
Feb-12
-3
Mar-12
40
Seasonally Adjusted
30
20
10
0
-10
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
Apr-12
May-12
Feb-12
-20
Mar-12
Seasonally Adjusted
2
1
0
-1
-2
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
Apr-12
May-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
-3
40
Seasonally Adjusted
30
20
10
0
-10
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
Apr-12
May-12
Feb-12
-20
Mar-12
15
Annexure A
Table A1: CPI Inflation by Groups (percent)
MoM change
I. Food Group
Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages
Weigh
t 37.5
Feb-12
-0.7
34.8
-0.8
1.4
Jan-13
YoY change
Feb-13
Feb-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
1.9
-1.3
10.5
8.1
2.0
-1.4
10.6
7.6
6.9
-0.3
0.1
0.0
6.5
18.2
18.5
9.8
7.4
1.2
1.9
1.0
1.4
11.5
10.4
62.5
1.0
1.5
0.4
11.5
8.1
7.4
7.6
0.4
0.8
0.8
15.0
15.3
15.7
29.4
0.1
1.8
0.0
7.7
3.6
3.5
4.2
1.6
0.5
0.5
21.3
11.1
9.9
Health
2.2
0.8
0.5
0.3
11.4
13.7
13.2
Transport
7.2
3.9
3.2
0.9
18.8
10.9
7.6
Communication
3.2
0.0
3.9
0.0
-0.6
5.2
5.1
2.0
0.7
0.2
0.2
6.0
17.6
17.0
Education
3.9
1.9
0.1
0.5
11.9
9.9
8.4
Miscellaneous
2.8
2.2
0.3
0.5
21.7
10.5
8.6
100.
0
0.3
1.7
-0.3
11.0
8.1
7.4
Headline
%
Total number
changes
of items
Feb-13 Feb-12 Feb-13
7.4
124
124
6.9
112
112
18.5
6
6
9.8
6
6
7.4
348
348
15.7
59
59
3.5
36
36
9.9
69
69
13.2
39
39
Health
7.6
43
43
Transport
5.1
12
12
Communication
17.0
39
39
Recreation & Culture
8.4
16
16
Education
8.6
35
35
Miscellaneous
7.4
472
472
Overall
Note: Prices of 15 seasonal items were not reported during the month.
16
Decrease or
no change
(0% or less)
Feb-12
Subdued
increase
(>0% but
<5%)
Moderate
increase (5%
but less than
10%)
Double digit
increase
(10% or
more)
Feb-13
14
14
0
0
51
9
1
36
36
0
0
40
0
7
17
16
1
0
41
0
5
16
16
0
0
46
2
2
17
14
2
1
49
6
9
30
24
3
3
96
5
14
76
68
3
5
207
44
21
42
36
3
3
166
52
13
12
27
56
29
16
9
6
6
2
0
65
13
3
3
7
5
1
76
4
6
2
17
1
4
58
2
5
2
12
3
6
62
4
5
2
5
3
6
66
8
11
5
5
4
17
126
15
23
2
11
10
25
283
16
24
2
15
4
11
208
Weights
Feb-12
Feb-13
Contribution
House Rent
Milk Fresh
Wheat Flour
Electricity
Transport Services
Education
Rice
Cigarette
Foot ware
Text Books
Meat
Cotton Cloth
Cooking Oil
Tailoring
Ready Made Garment
Total
21.81
6.68
4.16
4.40
2.70
3.94
1.58
1.39
1.55
0.57
2.43
1.73
1.75
0.88
0.97
56.57
6.12
18.55
1.32
1.22
10.96
11.93
10.22
6.32
1.59
3.29
16.32
12.95
3.75
16.86
16.76
6.86
11.52
19.84
16.39
11.13
8.35
19.19
18.75
20.84
40.53
5.92
11.79
10.80
15.31
15.52
16.58
12.58
11.47
10.10
4.53
3.93
3.84
3.49
3.32
3.16
2.48
2.48
2.30
2.06
1.92
84.25
1.58
0.54
1.66
0.54
1.36
0.46
1.86
0.21
0.23
0.27
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.03
8.80
29.41
37.74
8.07
24.04
19.98
39.01
23.14
-10.51
-12.21
-11.34
-14.20
30.76
24.24
18.19
25.19
-46.08
-25.96
-11.01
-12.10
-5.93
-11.55
-2.19
-8.26
-5.21
-3.06
-1.00
11.14
13.95
6.31
6.18
-15.94
-2.76
-2.66
-1.50
-1.29
-0.89
-0.61
-0.30
-0.24
-0.10
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.03
-26.23
Bottom 15 Contributors
Gas by Weighted Contribution
A.1Ranked
2 Onion
3 Fresh Vegetable
4 Spices
5 Chicken
6 Egg
7 Fresh Fruits
8 Pulse Mash (Washed)
9 Pulse Moong
10 Pulse Masoor
11 Gur
12 Kerosene Oil
13 Medical Equipment
14 Betel Leaves & Nuts
15 Blades
Total
17
Weights
Jan-13
Feb-13
Weighted
Contribution
Transport Services
Onion
Milk Fresh
Ready Made Food
Education
Rice
Cotton Cloth
Tea
Tailoring
Bakery & Confectionary
Woolen Cloth
Personal Equipments
Washing Soap & Detergent
Personal Care
Ready Made Garment
Total
2.70
0.54
6.68
1.23
3.94
1.58
1.73
0.84
0.88
1.16
0.88
0.84
0.79
1.49
0.97
26.26
0.63
-7.62
0.08
1.01
0.09
3.38
0.33
0.96
1.05
1.39
1.02
0.04
0.44
0.50
0.62
2.25
13.67
0.28
1.37
0.49
1.04
0.87
1.26
1.21
1.06
1.17
0.82
1.04
0.40
0.60
20.34
19.31
6.91
5.83
5.08
5.01
4.13
3.95
3.79
3.70
3.44
3.09
2.73
1.82
1.73
90.87
1.66
0.46
1.36
0.45
1.86
0.48
1.04
0.54
2.07
3.03
1.75
4.16
0.24
0.16
0.15
19.42
-2.45
1.05
10.84
61.12
-0.57
-14.55
0.06
-3.43
-0.89
7.02
-0.18
9.69
0.93
0.40
1.85
-12.89
-28.20
-4.89
-13.19
-2.48
-8.47
-2.05
-2.73
-0.92
-0.36
-0.36
-0.11
-0.97
-1.37
-0.82
-64.99
-54.70
-21.55
-21.01
-14.07
-10.76
-7.01
-6.24
-5.16
-3.39
-1.75
-1.55
-0.91
-0.85
-0.50
-214.43
Bottom 15 Contributors
Freshby
Vegetable
A.1Ranked
Weighted Contribution
2 Egg
3 Chicken
4 Tomatoes
5 Fresh Fruits
6 Potatoes
7 Sugar
8 Spices
9 Vegetable Ghee
10 Motor Fuel
11 Cooking Oil
12 Wheat Flour
13 Pulse Gram
14 Gram Whole
15 Besan
Total
18
Weights
YoY Change
Feb-12
Feb-13
Weighted
Contribution
0.24
0.15
0.57
0.35
0.11
1.55
0.44
4.16
1.58
0.40
1.39
0.04
0.21
0.03
0.59
11.81
-1.77
0.68
3.29
0.72
26.33
1.59
22.31
1.32
10.22
19.04
6.32
11.61
16.91
10.89
16.81
43.17
42.66
40.53
22.40
21.70
20.84
19.96
19.84
19.19
19.07
18.75
18.65
18.21
17.67
17.03
1.37
0.88
3.16
1.05
0.25
3.32
1.20
11.47
3.84
1.02
3.49
0.15
0.54
0.07
1.40
33.21
21.81
6.68
4.40
4.16
3.94
3.15
3.03
2.70
2.43
2.07
1.86
1.75
1.73
1.66
1.58
62.97
6.12
18.55
1.22
1.32
11.93
-0.66
29.19
10.96
16.32
2.07
23.14
3.75
12.95
8.07
10.22
6.86
11.52
16.39
19.84
8.35
5.15
3.65
11.13
5.92
1.00
-2.19
10.80
11.79
-11.01
19.19
16.58
12.58
10.10
11.47
3.93
1.64
1.63
4.53
2.48
0.27
-0.61
2.30
2.48
-2.66
3.84
70.56
B. Ranked by Weights
House Rent
1
A.2 Ranked
Weighted Contribution
Milk by
Fresh
Electricity
3
Wheat Flour
4
Education
5
Communication & Apparatus
6
Motor Fuel
7
Transport Services
8
Meat
9
10 Vegetable Ghee
11 Fresh Fruits
12 Cooking Oil
13 Cotton Cloth
14 Fresh Vegetable
15 Rice
Total
Note: Weighted contribution is estimated by multiplying the weights by the price change of an item; this is then
reported as a share in YoY change in CPI, which is 7.4 percent in February, 2013.
19
Weights
YoY Change
Feb-12
Feb-13
Weighted
Contribution
6.68
4.16
1.58
1.39
2.43
1.75
1.23
1.16
0.24
0.84
21.46
18.55
1.32
10.22
6.32
16.32
3.75
11.48
10.53
-1.77
7.70
11.52
19.84
19.19
18.75
5.92
10.80
9.78
9.05
43.17
9.37
12.58
11.47
3.84
3.49
2.48
2.30
1.88
1.43
1.37
1.33
42.17
0.24
0.15
0.35
4.16
1.58
1.39
0.04
0.03
0.48
0.10
8.52
-1.77
0.68
0.72
1.32
10.22
6.32
11.61
10.89
-3.08
2.39
43.17
42.66
22.40
19.84
19.19
18.75
18.65
17.67
16.95
16.40
1.37
0.88
1.05
11.47
3.84
3.49
0.15
0.07
0.83
0.21
23.37
6.68
4.16
2.43
2.07
1.86
1.75
1.66
1.58
1.39
1.36
24.95
18.55
1.32
16.32
2.07
23.14
3.75
8.07
10.22
6.32
19.98
11.52
19.84
5.92
1.00
-2.19
10.80
-11.01
19.19
18.75
-5.93
12.58
11.47
2.48
0.27
-0.61
2.30
-2.66
3.84
3.49
-1.29
31.86
Note: Weighted contribution is estimated by multiplying the weights by the price change of an item; this is then
reported as a share in YoY change in CPI Food, which is7.4 percent in February, 2013.
20
Weights
YoY Change
Feb-12
Feb-13
Weighted
Contribution
21.81
4.40
2.70
3.94
1.55
0.57
1.73
0.88
0.97
1.49
40.06
6.12
1.22
10.96
11.93
1.59
3.29
12.95
16.86
16.76
19.19
6.86
16.39
11.13
8.35
20.84
40.53
11.79
15.31
15.52
8.78
16.58
10.10
4.53
3.93
3.32
3.16
2.48
2.06
1.92
1.82
49.91
0.57
0.11
1.55
0.44
0.40
0.21
0.59
4.40
0.97
0.32
9.56
3.29
26.33
1.59
22.31
19.04
16.91
16.81
1.22
16.76
14.95
40.53
21.70
20.84
19.96
19.07
18.21
17.03
16.39
15.52
15.50
3.16
0.25
3.32
1.20
1.02
0.54
1.40
10.10
1.92
0.64
23.55
21.81
4.40
3.94
3.15
3.03
2.70
1.73
1.58
1.55
1.49
45.39
6.12
1.22
11.93
-0.66
29.19
10.96
12.95
29.41
1.59
19.19
6.86
16.39
8.35
5.15
3.65
11.13
11.79
-46.08
20.84
8.78
16.58
10.10
3.93
1.64
1.63
4.53
2.48
-15.94
3.32
1.82
30.08
Note: Weighted contribution is estimated by multiplying the weights by the price change of an item; this is then
reported as a share in YoY change in CPI Non-food, which is7.4 percent in February, 2013.
21
Furnishing &
Housing,
Household
Water, Elect,
Equip.
Gas & other
Maintenance etc
Fuels
Health
Transport
Communic
ation
Recreation &
Culture
Miscellaneo
us
22
Moderate increase
(5 to 10%)
Restaura
nt &
Hotels
Education
Subdued increase
(Up to 5%)
Clothing &
Footwear
Alcoholic
Food & NonBeverages
Alcoholic
&
Beverages
Tobacco
Groups
Toothbrush Shield, Disposable Purse Ladies (Leather) Av. Qlty, Wall Clock
Razor Gillette-II, Hair
Quartz Av.Qlty, Artificial Jewellary Set, Hair Oil
Removing Cream (EU-Cream) Amla/ Chambeli, Toothpaste Med Size Colgate
70Gms, Shaving Charges
Rawalpindi
Islamabad
Lahore
Gujranwala
Sialkot
Faisalabad
Multan
Sargodha
Bahawalpur
Karachi
Hyderabad
Sukkur
Larkana
Peshawar
Bannu
Quetta
Khuzdar
-0.7
-1.2
-1.0
-0.9
-0.6
-1.0
-1.1
-1.7
-2.0
-0.4
0.5
0.2
0.0
-1.0
-1.8
-0.7
-0.8
8.7
9.2
7.0
4.2
9.0
7.4
7.1
6.6
7.1
6.2
9.8
10.3
8.6
9.9
10.2
8.2
7.7
General
MoM YoY
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Rawalpindi
Islamabad
Lahore
Gujranwala
Sialkot
Faisalabad
Multan
Sargodha
Bahawalpur
Karachi
Hyderabad
Sukkur
Larkana
Peshawar
Bannu
Quetta
Khuzdar
-0.8
-1.3
-1.1
-0.9
-0.9
-1.1
-1.2
-1.7
-1.6
-0.4
0.2
0.1
-0.1
-0.8
-1.7
-0.4
-0.7
7.6
7.2
6.0
3.3
8.1
5.8
5.6
6.2
7.1
5.0
8.0
8.9
7.8
8.3
9.1
7.3
7.7
General
MoM YoY
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Rawalpindi
Islamabad
Lahore
Gujranwala
Sialkot
Faisalabad
Multan
Sargodha
Bahawalpur
Karachi
Hyderabad
Sukkur
Larkana
Peshawar
Bannu
Quetta
Khuzdar
-0.5
-0.4
-0.9
-0.8
-0.9
-0.8
-0.9
-1.2
-0.8
-0.1
0.1
0.1
-0.4
-0.2
-0.9
-0.2
-0.6
7.0
6.9
6.4
3.3
6.7
4.8
5.5
6.6
9.5
6.9
6.6
9.6
7.5
6.4
8.7
6.8
7.1
Up to Rs: 8000
Food
Non-Food
MoM YoY MoM YoY
-1.9
-3.0
-2.1
-1.6
-0.9
-2.1
-2.0
-3.2
-3.8
-0.8
0.4
0.1
-0.2
-1.9
-3.0
-1.4
-1.5
8.2
6.7
6.4
3.5
10.3
8.0
6.4
3.6
2.8
6.1
11.6
11.3
6.1
9.5
10.4
6.7
6.6
0.9
1.1
0.6
0.0
-0.3
0.5
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.2
0.5
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.3
0.3
0.0
9.4
12.5
7.9
5.2
7.4
6.6
8.0
10.1
12.2
6.3
7.3
9.0
11.7
10.4
10.0
10.2
9.0
Rs 12001-18000
Food
Non-Food
MoM YoY MoM YoY
-2.2
-3.2
-2.4
-1.6
-1.2
-2.4
-2.1
-3.1
-3.1
-0.8
0.0
-0.2
-0.5
-1.7
-3.0
-1.1
-1.3
7.8
7.1
6.5
3.9
10.9
7.8
6.0
4.1
3.6
5.5
10.9
11.2
7.0
9.5
9.8
6.8
6.1
0.7
0.6
0.3
-0.2
-0.5
0.2
-0.3
-0.4
-0.2
0.1
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
-0.4
0.4
-0.1
7.4
7.3
5.5
2.6
5.3
3.8
5.2
8.1
10.3
4.5
5.0
6.7
8.6
7.2
8.5
7.8
9.2
Above Rs 35000
Food
Non-Food
MoM YoY MoM YoY
-2.4
-2.4
-2.9
-1.7
-1.9
-2.4
-2.3
-3.1
-2.7
-0.5
-0.4
-0.2
-1.2
-1.5
-2.6
-0.9
-1.4
7.0
6.9
6.2
3.3
9.6
7.2
6.3
4.3
4.6
5.6
8.9
13.4
7.1
7.9
10.5
5.9
3.8
0.4
0.6
0.2
-0.3
-0.4
0.1
-0.3
-0.3
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.0
0.4
-0.1
0.1
-0.3
7.0
6.8
6.5
3.2
5.4
3.6
5.2
7.6
11.8
7.6
5.4
7.8
7.7
5.7
7.8
7.3
8.8
General
MoM YoY
-0.6
-1.3
-1.1
-1.0
-0.8
-1.0
-1.1
-1.5
-1.7
-0.4
0.3
0.2
-0.1
-0.9
-1.7
-0.3
-0.8
8.7
8.2
6.9
4.2
8.7
7.0
6.8
6.8
7.6
5.9
9.2
9.8
8.8
9.6
10.0
8.5
7.9
General
MoM YoY
-0.7
-1.0
-1.1
-1.0
-0.9
-1.0
-1.2
-1.6
-1.1
-0.3
0.1
0.0
-0.2
-0.6
-1.5
-0.3
-0.7
7.6
7.3
6.4
3.6
7.8
6.0
5.9
6.5
8.7
5.6
7.7
9.8
7.9
7.8
9.0
7.3
7.9
General
MoM YoY
-0.6
-0.5
-1.0
-0.9
-0.8
-0.9
-1.1
-1.5
-1.3
-0.2
0.2
0.1
-0.2
-0.5
-1.5
-0.3
-0.8
7.3
7.1
6.3
3.4
7.4
5.6
5.7
6.4
8.2
6.3
7.5
9.4
7.9
7.5
9.3
7.1
7.8
Rs 8001- 12000
Food
Non-Food
MoM YoY MoM YoY
-1.8
-3.2
-2.3
-1.8
-0.9
-2.3
-2.1
-2.9
-3.4
-0.9
0.2
0.0
-0.3
-1.8
-3.0
-1.1
-1.5
8.0
7.1
6.3
3.7
10.5
7.7
6.3
3.9
3.4
5.6
11.0
11.1
6.8
9.6
9.8
7.0
6.2
0.7
0.9
0.4
0.0
-0.6
0.4
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.1
-0.4
0.4
-0.1
9.4
9.5
7.7
4.9
6.7
6.2
7.5
9.7
11.8
6.3
7.1
8.4
11.0
9.7
10.2
10.1
9.8
Rs 18001-35000
Food
Non-Food
MoM YoY MoM YoY
-2.4
-3.1
-2.6
-1.9
-1.4
-2.3
-2.3
-3.1
-2.8
-0.7
-0.1
-0.3
-0.6
-1.6
-2.8
-1.1
-1.3
7.3
7.0
6.5
3.7
10.6
7.8
5.6
3.8
3.7
5.6
10.2
12.3
7.6
9.0
9.3
6.3
5.8
Combined
Food
MoM YoY
-2.4
-2.6
-2.6
-1.7
-1.5
-2.3
-2.2
-3.1
-3.1
-0.7
-0.1
-0.1
-0.5
-1.7
-2.9
-1.1
-1.4
7.2
6.9
6.3
3.6
10.3
7.7
6.1
4.1
3.8
5.6
10.3
12.0
7.0
8.9
9.9
6.4
6.0
0.7
0.9
0.3
-0.2
-0.5
0.2
-0.3
-0.5
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.2
-0.4
0.3
-0.2
7.8
7.5
6.4
3.5
5.5
4.4
6.2
8.7
12.7
5.5
5.5
7.8
8.1
7.0
8.6
8.2
9.7
Non-Food
MoM YoY
0.6
1.1
0.3
-0.3
-0.4
0.1
-0.3
-0.5
-0.1
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.3
-0.6
0.2
-0.3
7.4
7.3
6.3
3.3
5.5
4.2
5.5
7.8
11.1
6.9
5.5
7.6
8.5
6.6
8.9
7.6
9.0
23
Loralai&Cantt
12.8
12.2
13.2
Quetta
7.1
6.4
7.6
Nawabshah
12.5
14.2
11.5
Islamabad
7.1
6.9
7.3
Turbat
11.8
14.2
10.2
Muzaffargarh
7.0
6.4
7.5
Gawadar
11.2
13.5
9.7
Dadu
6.9
8.9
5.5
Mardan
11.2
10.9
11.4
Jehlum
6.7
6.2
7.0
Mianwali
10.0
7.3
12.0
Attock
6.5
5.2
7.4
D.G. Khan
9.7
5.7
12.5
Jhang
6.5
3.0
8.7
Sukkur
9.4
12.0
7.6
Sargodha
6.4
4.1
7.8
D.I.Khan
9.3
5.7
11.9
Lahore
6.3
6.3
6.3
Mingora
9.3
8.3
10.1
Karachi
6.3
5.6
6.9
Bannu
9.3
9.9
8.9
Abbotabad
6.3
8.0
5.2
Sahiwal
9.3
8.7
9.7
Multan
5.7
6.1
5.5
Bahawalnagar
9.1
8.4
9.6
Faisalabad
5.6
7.7
4.2
9.0
6.8
10.6
Wazirabad
4.8
5.0
4.6
Bahawalpur
8.2
3.8
11.1
Dera Mrd.Jamali
3.8
1.8
5.3
8.0
6.0
9.5
Gujranwala
3.4
3.6
3.3
Larkana
7.9
7.0
8.5
Khuzdar
7.8
6.0
9.0
Vehari
7.8
7.0
8.3
Peshawar
7.5
8.9
6.6
Hyderabad
7.5
10.3
5.5
Sialkot
7.4
10.3
5.5
Note: High inflation refers to equal or above average inflation, and low inflation refers to below average
24
YoY
Feb-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Feb-13
-0.1
1.8
-0.5
9.3
8.9
8.5
-0.8
2.2
-1.1
8.2
8.4
8.0
Non-food
0.8
1.3
0.4
10.7
9.4
9.1
0.0
1.7
-0.5
9.8
9.7
9.3
-0.7
2.1
-1.2
9.0
8.3
7.8
0.7
1.3
0.3
10.8
11.3
10.9
0.0
1.6
-0.4
10.0
9.4
8.9
Food
-0.7
2.0
-1.2
9.7
8.2
7.6
0.7
1.2
0.4
10.4
10.5
10.2
0.1
1.6
-0.4
10.7
7.5
6.9
Food
-0.7
1.8
-1.3
10.4
8.1
7.4
0.8
1.3
0.4
11.0
7.0
6.5
0.6
1.7
-0.3
12.0
6.9
6.1
Food
-0.6
1.7
-1.4
11.7
7.8
7.0
1.2
1.7
0.3
12.1
6.5
5.6
0.3
1.7
-0.3
11.0
8.1
7.4
Food
-0.7
1.9
-1.3
10.5
8.1
7.4
1.0
1.5
0.4
11.5
8.1
7.4
Up to Rs. 8000
General
Food
Food
Non-food
Non-food
Non-food
Non-food
Non-food
Feb-12
25
Wheat
Wheat Flour Bag
Rice Basmati Broken
Rice Irri-6
Bread Plain Med. Size (340-400 Gm.)
Beef
Mutton
Chicken Live (Farm)
Milk Fresh
Curd
Milk Powdered Nido
Egg Hen (Farm)
Mustard Oil
Cooking Oil (Tin)
Veg. Ghee (Tin)
Veg.Ghee Loose
Bananas
Masoor Pulse Washed
Moong Pulse Washed
Mash Pulse Washed
Gram Pulse Washed
Potatoes
Onions
Tomatoes
Sugar
Gur
Salt Powdered Loose (Lahori)
Red Chilies Powder Loose
Garlic
Tea (Yellow Label )
Cooked Beef Plate
Cooked Dal Plate
Tea Prepared (Sada)
Cigarettes K-2 (20'S)
Long Cloth (Coarse Latha)
Shirting
Lawn
Georgette (Voil Printed)
Sandal Gents Bata
Chappal Spong.Bata (Gents)
Sandal Ladies Bata
Electric Charges 1-50
Gas Charges upto 3.3719
Kerosene
Firewood
Energy Savor 14 Watts
Washing Soap (200-250 Gm.)
Match Box
Petrol
Diesel
L.P.G.( 11 Kg Cylinder.)
Tele. Local Call
Bath Soap Lifebuoy (Standard)
Maximum
Median
Minimum
26
Unit
10Kg.
10Kg.
Kg.
Kg.
Each
Kg.
Kg.
Kg.
Litr
Kg.
500G
Doz.
Kg.
2.5Ltr
2.5Kg.
Kg.
Doz.
Kg.
Kg.
Kg.
Kg.
Kg.
Kg.
Kg.
Kg.
Kg.
Kg.
Kg.
Kg.
200Gm.
Each
Each
Cup
20'S
Mtr.
Mtr.
Mtr.
Mtr.
Pair
Pair
Pair
Unit
Mmbtu
Litr
40Kg
Each
Cake
Each
Litr
Litr
Each
Call
Cake
Prices
Feb-13
335.9
368.5
69.9
50.5
35.4
268.6
514.8
146.7
65.6
75.5
290.0
86.7
186.3
527.0
506.7
159.1
59.7
100.7
115.5
131.7
103.2
21.7
30.0
52.9
51.8
72.9
8.8
235.9
132.7
144.2
69.9
40.1
15.3
32.3
150.2
126.7
163.3
103.7
599.0
179.0
499.0
2.0
123.1
118.6
505.9
153.5
21.1
1.1
104.3
110.3
1671.9
3.9
32.0
Percentage change
YoY
MoM
22.4
19.7
18.4
11.1
13.1
4.4
4.7
-9.5
13.0
11.2
18.4
-16.2
4.1
6.5
2.4
-1.5
6.4
2.4
-2.9
-6.9
37.2
18.4
-20.2
22.8
3.0
6.3
8.5
-24.3
37.1
7.2
14.2
6.8
4.9
10.0
34.8
15.8
40.6
16.3
20.0
28.8
25.1
7.0
-13.7
11.1
9.0
8.7
16.0
2.8
8.6
5.6
4.6
9.7
6.6
40.6
1.2
0.4
1.2
1.2
1.8
0.0
0.2
-7.0
0.9
0.1
0.0
-22.4
0.2
-0.3
-2.1
-0.1
4.6
0.7
1.8
0.0
-0.9
-4.6
21.3
-7.8
-1.3
-0.7
1.6
-1.1
3.5
0.0
0.9
0.4
0.0
0.0
1.1
1.5
1.4
1.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.7
1.2
0.3
0.0
0.9
-0.6
-11.1
7.7
0.0
21.3
8.6
0.1
-24.3
-22.4
Groups
Unmanufactured
Tobacco, Stimulant and
Spice Crops, Hides and
Fur Skins, Raw, Raw
Animal Material/Wool
Bicycles, Lighting
Equipments, Cultivators,
Steel Products,
Refrige,Wash& Sew
Mach,Iron,Fan, Motor
Cycles, Pipe Fittings
Motor Vehicles
27
28
Weights
Feb-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
100.00
34.83
0.35
4.16
0.10
0.15
1.58
0.16
1.16
0.46
2.43
1.36
0.30
6.68
0.63
0.11
0.46
0.10
1.75
2.07
0.25
1.86
0.27
0.23
0.21
0.24
0.16
0.03
0.48
0.54
0.45
1.66
1.04
0.02
0.04
0.25
1.20
0.25
0.27
0.54
0.84
1.41
1.39
0.02
7.57
1.73
0.88
0.97
0.40
0.51
0.44
0.21
163.07
181.19
162.99
167.16
162.71
165.65
152.35
191.31
165.09
183.59
207.44
193.14
189.93
196.87
195.08
163.67
203.93
154.40
145.95
155.95
196.90
178.60
151.21
234.13
208.20
161.41
203.24
183.56
122.81
236.25
156.30
175.70
180.01
222.69
215.89
197.44
158.81
170.44
208.37
274.57
204.05
161.27
161.10
171.73
154.19
146.36
175.90
153.30
162.48
166.97
163.94
168.02
175.70
196.52
198.18
200.55
186.20
238.28
179.71
209.94
178.14
198.97
219.53
191.04
201.51
218.93
211.17
185.48
251.22
160.75
162.30
158.98
211.55
179.14
145.66
220.90
191.57
233.36
225.54
217.23
156.92
153.88
209.01
179.49
192.83
225.19
254.80
207.27
169.71
181.23
214.25
248.13
220.38
191.17
191.31
182.64
177.05
162.20
197.86
176.04
192.09
187.80
195.26
196.18
175.11
193.70
199.50
200.33
189.40
236.32
181.58
210.83
180.03
200.35
219.73
181.69
202.68
219.54
211.29
185.81
180.37
162.48
161.71
157.51
212.97
174.69
146.58
221.94
191.01
231.09
222.44
216.00
143.63
174.91
181.44
156.35
188.87
220.47
256.16
207.84
169.72
180.84
214.80
241.36
223.16
191.17
191.31
182.57
178.43
163.61
200.18
177.09
193.46
189.09
196.66
198.61
Weights
Feb-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
0.88
1.55
29.41
21.81
0.56
0.33
0.50
4.40
1.58
0.01
0.23
4.21
0.33
0.65
0.59
0.32
0.25
0.79
0.15
1.04
0.08
2.19
1.27
0.01
0.59
0.32
7.20
0.66
0.24
3.03
0.46
0.11
2.70
3.22
0.07
3.15
2.02
0.86
0.57
0.19
0.40
3.94
3.94
1.23
1.23
2.76
1.49
0.39
0.03
0.84
183.26
123.68
147.59
133.31
188.18
157.11
131.65
168.71
264.42
248.56
216.88
165.48
156.10
160.99
150.55
155.00
167.35
180.92
140.52
173.92
172.29
139.60
125.34
176.81
167.72
143.21
174.98
143.40
196.06
177.24
168.64
126.33
181.34
122.34
166.89
121.41
143.03
118.69
164.41
149.97
161.93
143.82
143.82
188.82
188.82
186.70
167.01
144.81
164.07
241.52
208.79
149.25
152.73
142.46
203.39
174.67
134.90
196.37
142.58
274.86
242.39
180.97
170.15
177.05
158.42
178.48
175.86
195.92
152.13
193.59
193.63
157.50
139.04
200.84
196.28
157.96
186.75
153.42
211.06
184.37
185.06
152.02
197.09
128.62
174.47
127.65
166.96
122.30
231.06
157.59
176.55
155.07
155.07
204.48
204.48
201.76
180.95
149.85
174.21
263.31
211.32
149.45
152.79
142.46
204.56
175.62
134.90
196.37
142.58
276.25
246.28
181.91
171.54
177.68
158.68
179.02
177.32
197.96
152.30
194.31
193.63
158.02
139.74
201.48
196.28
158.67
188.35
154.73
212.30
183.71
185.37
153.74
201.53
128.63
174.59
127.66
167.30
122.45
231.05
157.59
178.01
155.83
155.83
207.28
207.28
202.74
181.67
149.40
174.21
265.47
29
30
Feb-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
180.99
179.07
168.45
151.80
148.66
188.29
140.69
195.16
135.17
185.62
183.50
167.50
122.15
182.85
205.66
281.77
180.96
167.94
206.27
189.49
210.88
136.29
136.91
196.83
144.11
187.55
164.71
211.32
160.27
166.13
173.34
220.62
176.09
202.14
155.83
150.92
139.02
142.66
183.24
166.10
153.30
188.97
153.12
145.92
184.35
100.26
100.40
193.29
302.57
320.96
165.65
135.24
167.07
193.21
179.97
184.35
171.28
167.56
157.01
195.39
196.33
205.59
169.08
163.12
203.64
170.64
188.53
210.03
182.41
165.83
187.70
149.42
177.23
206.62
267.92
179.31
169.08
197.99
219.99
247.18
137.58
139.23
218.79
187.55
216.13
223.53
206.15
164.98
226.10
190.57
229.17
189.09
223.34
157.91
157.28
140.11
173.15
208.43
171.59
167.68
204.91
184.41
202.00
201.05
99.19
102.28
200.60
273.27
319.52
168.32
137.86
208.80
214.74
180.86
194.85
206.00
174.17
165.62
196.06
198.37
207.60
178.29
165.57
209.43
170.25
165.61
210.65
185.34
166.82
178.37
138.83
188.76
204.49
267.92
199.23
174.04
188.11
220.40
168.53
137.58
139.48
219.44
189.26
215.52
223.53
204.82
170.30
226.10
190.68
229.40
189.33
224.68
158.79
160.11
141.86
163.45
208.43
171.59
173.49
206.31
186.10
198.50
194.64
99.19
102.28
201.59
273.41
318.46
168.32
137.86
208.80
216.35
183.22
199.23
206.00
174.17
165.62
Feb-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
138.97
183.73
154.55
167.97
147.05
103.57
144.07
157.24
126.99
110.01
120.85
101.48
200.50
142.03
132.81
154.17
163.45
160.33
248.36
245.34
213.47
172.39
146.61
104.26
269.00
165.30
123.86
183.02
114.17
154.04
173.78
181.84
170.66
212.39
139.98
171.23
161.26
128.83
120.39
154.87
128.97
132.90
141.36
158.18
109.07
115.39
164.27
184.66
131.08
172.36
147.68
138.83
163.50
163.34
143.66
131.06
157.68
123.29
170.59
154.21
203.06
185.21
204.38
152.84
106.55
114.41
181.12
138.14
109.83
122.57
139.49
204.00
148.36
155.35
194.44
163.45
172.73
261.36
264.94
168.81
184.85
156.16
104.26
259.68
197.49
117.42
238.30
139.54
168.41
180.99
192.40
190.93
191.72
157.45
177.53
187.78
142.83
133.50
159.07
128.97
132.75
141.47
161.94
109.07
115.39
172.67
189.23
138.54
161.96
147.68
138.83
166.45
159.57
148.26
126.46
173.75
125.19
177.87
154.21
203.06
185.21
207.04
153.32
106.55
114.41
181.47
138.19
109.83
122.57
139.49
204.80
148.59
161.68
193.06
163.45
172.73
261.36
264.94
168.81
184.85
157.85
106.24
263.38
197.49
120.46
238.30
139.32
168.27
180.99
192.40
192.74
197.87
160.55
177.53
187.79
142.83
133.50
159.08
128.97
132.81
141.47
161.94
109.07
115.39
172.67
189.23
138.54
161.96
147.68
138.83
166.47
159.57
148.26
126.46
173.75
125.07
177.87
31
Overall
CPI
Food
117.03
128.85
146.45
162.57
123.12
139.05
164.10
182.20
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
Overall
WPI
Food
Non-Food
113.38
122.73
135.87
150.80
118.93
135.40
164.17
181.28
119.68
136.85
159.26
181.32
118.45
134.48
167.28
181.26
123.26
139.84
164.02
178.67
Non-food
SPI *
2010
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
134.16
134.34
134.83
137.62
140.63
143.49
144.90
146.34
145.90
145.24
145.68
146.63
149.33
156.70
163.96
163.90
166.59
163.69
127.52
127.54
127.76
130.60
131.00
131.22
133.51
134.20
135.24
143.09
144.73
144.97
147.38
150.19
152.74
155.40
159.34
162.48
143.76
144.13
147.15
149.13
152.48
155.52
156.03
157.03
155.88
142.66
145.11
143.58
146.27
148.74
150.98
155.00
160.81
166.67
146.52
147.54
147.90
152.10
155.44
161.00
163.01
167.56
166.52
2011
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
147.67
146.85
148.91
150.99
151.33
152.78
154.72
156.89
158.50
160.79
161.25
160.12
166.52
163.56
167.10
169.25
168.76
169.88
174.80
177.32
180.16
183.07
183.26
179.21
136.37
136.83
138.01
140.05
140.88
142.53
142.68
144.65
145.52
147.44
148.06
148.67
165.58
168.82
174.41
178.69
176.97
177.98
177.26
178.24
178.68
179.34
178.39
176.01
159.08
158.33
162.92
165.46
167.15
172.14
175.45
178.67
181.88
182.82
181.48
178.29
169.70
175.47
181.70
187.09
183.20
181.68
178.41
177.97
176.65
177.13
176.43
174.57
166.96
164.99
166.81
167.83
167.98
168.09
171.45
173.86
175.02
176.45
177.53
175.04
2012
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
162.58
163.07
164.98
168.00
169.93
169.99
169.57
171.09
172.44
173.10
172.42
172.82
181.90
180.69
183.46
187.43
187.75
187.35
190.72
192.47
193.80
193.66
193.03
192.97
151.00
152.51
153.90
156.35
159.25
159.58
156.89
158.27
159.64
160.77
160.07
160.74
179.99
180.99
182.20
185.48
189.46
189.37
190.05
191.99
192.66
192.88
192.16
192.98
178.95
177.56
180.41
184.45
186.57
189.36
193.92
195.30
195.81
196.21
193.02
195.49
180.65
183.17
183.34
186.13
191.29
189.37
187.59
189.89
190.66
190.77
191.61
191.39
178.25
178.63
180.79
184.03
184.88
188.14
183.98
186.47
188.21
187.32
187.35
187.95
Jan
Feb
175.70
175.11
196.58
194.05
163.19
163.76
195.39
196.06
198.81
197.22
193.22
195.32
190.89
190.79
2013
32
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
101.2
101.2
105.0
107.7
187.8
188.5
194.2
198.6
180.9
181.5
187.8
192.0
Rice ($/MT)
590.7
565.5
573.4
574.1
Wheat ($/MT)
361.0
347.9
335.5
318.9
19.3
19.2
18.7
18.2
743.1
713.9
776.5
792.4
1,071.8
1,088.8
1,122.8
1,132.0
Food
80.9
83.4
85.5
89.7
182.1
192.7
202.3
205.2
Copper ($/MT)
7,711.2
7,966.5
8,053.7
8,060.9
Aluminum ($/MT)
1,948.8
2,086.8
2,037.6
2,053.6
120.4
128.9
150.5
154.6
Tin ($/MT)
20,713.1
22,880.9
24,598.9
24,211.7
Nickle ($/MT)
16,335.4
17,448.5
17,494.1
17,690.1
Zinc ($/MT)
1,912.4
2,040.4
2,031.4
2,128.7
Lead ($/MT)
2,182.0
2,279.8
2,334.5
2,365.8
41.5
43.7
42.8
43.4
DAP ($/MT)
524.8
499.0
485.0
482.3
Urea ($/MT)
374.2
378.8
393.4
411.5
Uranium ($/MT)
33
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
Jul
Aug
122.46
124.68
137.62
140.63
154.72
156.88
169.57
171.09
Sep
124.89
143.49
158.50
172.44
Oct
125.64
144.90
160.79
173.10
Nov
127.30
146.34
161.25
172.42
Dec
126.37
145.90
160.12
172.82
Jan
129.64
147.67
162.58
175.70
175.11
Feb
130.13
146.85
163.07
Mar
131.75
148.91
164.98
Apr
134.16
150.99
168.00
May
134.34
151.33
169.93
Jun
134.83
152.78
169.99
34
Jul
122.20
137.37
154.44
169.23
Aug
123.89
139.68
155.75
169.80
Sep
124.11
142.47
157.36
171.22
Oct
124.66
143.67
159.37
171.61
Nov
126.72
145.66
160.51
171.62
Dec
127.12
146.81
161.18
174.01
Jan
129.89
147.92
162.81
175.90
176.80
Feb
131.18
148.16
164.60
Mar
132.49
149.82
166.00
Apr
134.13
150.95
167.87
May
134.70
151.78
170.48
Jun
135.36
153.39
170.69
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
Jul
Aug
130.97
134.95
149.33
156.70
174.80
177.32
190.72
192.47
Sep
135.20
163.96
180.16
193.80
Oct
135.98
163.91
183.07
193.66
Nov
138.87
166.59
183.26
193.03
Dec
135.81
163.69
179.21
192.97
Jan
138.54
166.52
181.90
196.58
194.05
Feb
139.06
163.56
180.69
Mar
141.71
167.10
183.46
Apr
145.24
169.25
187.43
May
145.69
168.77
187.75
Jun
146.63
169.88
187.35
130.41
148.79
174.15
189.89
Aug
133.22
154.60
174.84
189.68
Sep
133.17
161.28
177.12
190.52
Oct
133.48
160.77
179.50
189.99
Nov
137.00
164.42
180.88
190.44
Dec
137.03
165.20
180.97
194.92
Jan
139.20
167.19
182.53
197.17
198.08
Feb
141.59
166.74
184.37
Mar
143.36
169.13
185.72
Apr
145.73
169.81
187.92
May
146.81
170.12
189.40
Jun
148.38
171.92
189.70
35
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
Average
Jul
100.21
100.18
100.18
100.20
100.19
Aug
100.64
100.68
100.73
100.76
100.70
Sep
100.63
100.71
100.73
100.71
100.70
Oct
100.78
100.86
100.89
100.87
100.85
Nov
100.46
100.47
100.46
100.47
100.46
Dec
99.41
99.38
99.34
99.32
99.36
Jan
99.81
99.83
99.86
99.89
99.85
99.05
99.11
Feb
99.20
99.11
99.07
Mar
99.44
99.39
99.38
99.41
Apr
100.02
100.03
100.08
100.04
May
99.73
99.70
99.68
99.70
Jun
99.61
99.60
99.59
99.60
36
Period
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
Average
Jul
100.43
100.37
100.37
100.44
100.40
Aug
101.30
101.36
101.42
101.47
101.39
Sep
101.53
101.66
101.72
101.72
101.66
Oct
101.87
101.95
101.99
101.93
101.94
Nov
101.37
101.32
101.32
101.36
101.34
Dec
99.11
99.09
99.03
99.00
99.06
Jan
99.53
99.60
99.65
99.70
99.62
Feb
98.21
98.09
98.01
97.97
98.07
Mar
98.85
98.80
98.78
98.81
Apr
99.67
99.67
99.74
99.69
May
99.24
99.21
99.13
99.19
Jun
98.82
98.81
98.76
98.80
FY10
Jul
FY11
FY12
FY13
2.07
1.27
-0.25
Aug
1.81
2.19
1.40
0.90
Sep
0.17
2.03
1.03
0.79
Oct
0.60
0.98
1.44
0.38
Nov
1.32
0.99
0.29
-0.39
Dec
-0.73
-0.30
-0.70
0.23
Jan
2.59
1.21
1.54
1.67
-0.34
Feb
0.38
-0.56
0.30
Mar
1.24
1.40
1.17
Apr
1.83
1.40
1.83
May
0.13
0.23
1.15
Jun
0.36
0.96
0.04
1.49
0.68
-0.85
Aug
1.38
1.68
0.85
0.34
Sep
0.18
2.00
1.03
0.83
Oct
0.45
0.84
1.28
0.23
Nov
1.65
1.39
0.71
0.01
Dec
0.31
0.79
0.42
1.39
Jan
2.19
0.75
1.01
1.09
0.51
Feb
0.99
0.17
1.10
Mar
1.00
1.12
0.85
Apr
1.24
0.75
1.13
May
0.42
0.55
1.55
Jun
0.49
1.06
0.12
37
FY10
Jul
FY11
FY12
FY13
1.84
2.90
1.80
4.93
1.44
0.92
Aug
3.04
Sep
0.19
4.64
1.60
0.69
Oct
0.58
-0.04
1.62
-0.07
Nov
2.12
1.64
0.10
-0.33
Dec
-2.20
-1.74
-2.21
-0.03
Jan
2.01
1.73
1.50
1.87
-1.29
Feb
0.38
-1.77
-0.66
Mar
1.91
2.16
1.53
Apr
2.49
1.28
2.16
May
0.31
-0.28
0.17
Jun
0.65
0.66
-0.21
38
0.27
1.30
0.10
3.91
0.40
-0.11
Aug
2.16
Sep
-0.04
4.32
1.30
0.44
Oct
0.24
-0.32
1.34
-0.28
Nov
2.64
2.27
0.77
0.24
Dec
0.02
0.47
0.05
2.35
Jan
1.58
1.21
0.86
1.15
0.46
Feb
1.72
-0.27
1.01
Mar
1.25
1.43
0.73
Apr
1.66
0.40
1.19
May
0.74
0.18
0.79
Jun
1.07
1.06
0.16
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
13
11
9
7
5
3
1
-1
-3
-5
-7
25
13
11
9
7
5
3
1
-1
-3
-5
-7
25
13
11
9
7
5
3
1
-1
-3
-5
-7
25
13
11
9
7
5
3
1
-1
-3
-5
-7
25
13
11
9
7
5
3
1
-1
-3
-5
-7
20
15
10
5
0
-5
Health
15
10
5
0
-5
13
11
9
7
5
3
1
-1
-3
-5
-7
20
15
10
5
0
-5
Communication
Transport
Feb-13
Oct-12
Dec-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Apr-12
Feb-12
Oct-11
Dec-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Apr-11
Feb-11
-5
5
0
-5
Feb-13
10
Oct-12
15
Dec-12
10
13
11
9
7
5
3
1
-1
-3
-5
-7
20
Jun-12
15
Education
Aug-12
20
0
-5
Apr-12
25
Feb-12
0
-5
10
Oct-11
15
Jun-11
10
Aug-11
15
20
Apr-11
20
13
11
9
7
5
3
1
-1
-3
-5
-7
Feb-11
25
Dec-11
YoY
39
100
100
80
80
80
80
60
60
60
60
40
40
40
40
20
20
20
20
100
100
100
100
100
100
12-month ma non-food price changes
80
80
80
80
60
60
60
60
40
40
40
40
20
20
20
20
40
0
<-8
-8 to -6
-6 to -4
-4 to -2
-2 to 0
0 to 2
2 to 4
4 to 6
6 to 8
8 to 10
10 to 12
12 to 14
14 to 16
16 to 18
18 to 20
>20
<-8
-8 to -6
-6 to -4
-4 to -2
-2 to 0
0 to 2
2 to 4
4 to 6
6 to 8
8 to 10
10 to 12
12 to 14
14 to 16
16 to 18
18 to 20
>20
50
100
50
100
12-month ma price changes
40
80
40
80
30
60
30
60
20
40
20
40
10
20
10
20
50
100
50
100
40
80
30
60
30
60
20
40
20
40
10
20
10
20
<-8
-8 to -6
-6 to -4
-4 to -2
-2 to 0
0 to 2
2 to 4
4 to 6
6 to 8
8 to 10
10 to 12
12 to 14
14 to 16
16 to 18
18 to 20
>20
<-8
-8 to -6
-6 to -4
-4 to -2
-2 to 0
0 to 2
2 to 4
4 to 6
6 to 8
8 to 10
10 to 12
12 to 14
14 to 16
16 to 18
18 to 20
>20
40
41
FNAB-IDI (LHS)
Overall-IDI
Overall Inflation
120
FHE-IDI (LHS)
FHE Inflation- YoY
25
100
20
80
60
15
40
10
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-5
100
20
80
60
15
40
10
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-5
H-IDI (LHS)
H Inflation- YoY
20
15
10
5
0
-5
100
20
80
60
15
40
10
20
-20
-40
-60
-5
20
15
10
5
0
-5
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
20
15
10
5
0
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
-5
100
20
80
60
15
40
10
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-5
42
10
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-5
Overall-IDI
Overall Inflation
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
Overall-IDI
Overall Inflation
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
Overall-IDI
Overall Inflation
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
Numbers in square brackets show the weights of respective groups in the CPI baskets.
15
40
RH-IDI (LHS)
RH Inflation- YoY
25
60
25
Com-IDI (LHS)
Com Inflation- YoY
20
80
Overall-IDI
Overall Inflation
120
Overall-IDI
Overall Inflation
25
100
Edu-IDI (LHS)
Edu Inflation- YoY
25
120
Overall-IDI
Overall Inflation
25
T-IDI (LHS)
T Inflation- YoY
Overall-IDI
Overall Inflation
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
Overall-IDI
Overall Inflation
120
HWEG-IDI (LHS)
HWEG Inflation- YoY
RC-IDI (LHS)
RC Inflation- YoY
25
25
120
Overall-IDI
Overall Inflation
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
Overall-IDI
Overall Inflation
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
ABT-IDI (LHS)
ABT Inflation- YoY
Overall-IDI
Overall Inflation
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Annexure B
Technical Notes
1. All the three measures of inflation, viz. CPI, WPI and SPI are computed by
the following Laspeyres Index formula:
Pt j
I t w j
j
P0
j
0
t (
It
I t 12
1) 100
5. Period average inflation is the percent change of the average index during the
period from July to the given month of a fiscal year over the average index
during the corresponding period of the last year. It is computed as follows:
I t i
i 0
t t 12
1 100
I t 12i
i 0
Where v is the serial number of the month of July of current fiscal year in a
given time series.
6. Monthly inflation is the percent change of an index in a given month over the
index in the preceding month. It is computed as follows:
43
t (
It
1) 100
I t 1
11
I t i
i 0
~
t 11
1 100
I t 12i
i 0
I t wi I it
i
Cit it 12 wi it
t
it 12
I it 12
; i.e. ratio of items index to overall index in the
I t 12
reference month
t : Overall inflation
10. Annualized rate of inflation (based on a month-on-month rate ) is computed
as follows
Annualized = ((1+
)12-1) 100
45
Thus, it is the difference between the share of items with increasing prices (i.e.
depicting inflation) and the share of items with falling prices (i.e. depicting deflation)
in CPI amongst the commodities for which prices have altered or remained constant1.
Based upon commodity level price data from July 2001 to February 2011 we
computed inflation diffusion indices overall (general) CPI basket and for all groups
in CPI basket (except House Rent Index being single item). A simple analysis2
suggests that IDI is a leading indicator for Pakistans YoY inflation.
We do not observe the prices of certain commodities (like the seasonal items) during certain periods of
time. To calculate the inflation diffusion index we consider the commodities for which prices have been
reported (irrespective of changed or not) during the month under review.
2
Formal test shows one way Granger causality from IDI to YoY inflation.
46