Vous êtes sur la page 1sur 36

Taiwan PV Industry Overview

Dr. Joeng-Shein Chen


Taiwan Photovoltaic Industry Association, TPVIA Photovoltaics Technology Center, ITRI

2008/1/1 4

Event, Venue information

Outlines
RE Resources in Taiwan PV Policy and Strategy PV Industry in Taiwan PV Installation and Incentive Programs in Taiwan Who is TPVIA How Taiwan Can Win !

2008/1/14

Event, Venue information

Top 10 Problems in next 50 years


Energy () Water () Food () Environment () Poverty () Terrorism & war() Disease () Education () Democracy () Population ()
Oil 41 yrs
3

Nature Gas 67 yrs

Coal 192 yrs

Uranium 53 yrs
2004, BP

2008/1/14

Event, Venue information

Source: Richard Smalley, Rice University

Solar energy : Only RE not from the Earth


http://www.hubbertpeak.com/debate/oilcalcs.htm

Solar Energy Input

(Terawatts=1012W)

178,000 53,000 82,000 40,000 1,000 100 13 2.5 0.6

Reflected to Space Immediately Absorbed and Then Reflected as Heat Used to Evaporate Water (Weather) Wind energy Captured by Plant Photosynthesis Total Energy Used by Human Society Total Energy Used by US Society Total Human Food Energy
1. ~
4

2008/1/14

Event, Venue information

Global Cell Production Forecast


1. 2006/3 by Goldman Sachs , 2010 will grow up to 4GWpgrowth rate 20% 2. 2007/4 in The 4th Solar Silicon Conference, by PHOTON Consulting 2010 global capacity will achieve 15GWpgrowth rate 60%
16000 14000

15GWp

12000

10GWp
10000

8000

The 4th Solar Silicon Conference /PHOTON Consulting 2007 .4


6000

PHOTON Consulting 2006 .10 Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2006 .3

4000

2000

2.6GWp 2.5GWp 1.9GWp

4GWp

0 1996
5

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006e

2007f

2008f

2009f

2010f

2008/1/14

Source PVTC / ITRI(2007/06) Event, Venue information

The World PV Cell Production (MW/year 2006)


h ec ot M
MW Shezhen Topray Solar (CH) Solterra (CH) Other China %

MO38:clpdcww06Rev.1 Microsol International (UAE) MO39:clpdcww06rev.1 15.0 MW 0.6 % Kyungdong PV Energy (Korea) ) 12.5 MW 0.5 %

.4 MW 1.3 % BP Solar 33 (AU) .5 % MW 2 62.7 ower % SunP 1.1 MW 6 % % (PH) 29.0 W 0.0.6 % ers 14.4 MMW 0.8 % Oth W .3 ar 15.0 M 1 0 Sol . BP tech 20 MW W .5 ar Gin l 2 o 3 M lS n De .0 % To E10 .4

15.0 0.6 12.0 0.5 52.0 2.1 79.0 3.1

Sharp
434.0 MW 17.2 %

Ot he rs

So 79 lar .0 f un MW JA So 25 3.1 Bao l .0 ar di n % M gY 25. in g 0 M W1 li . 0 W 35.0 1 % CEE MW . 0 % G Na nj i ng 1.4 % PV 60.0 MW 2.4 %

Others

123.6 MW India 4.9 % 43.4 MW Taiwan 1.7 %

177.5 MW 7.1 %

Japan
927.5 MW 36.8 %

Kyocera
180.0 MW 7.1 %

China

Suntech 157.5 MW 6.2 %


MW Evergreen Solar Schott Solar Global Solar Other % 13.0 0.5 13.0 0.5 2.5 0.1 2.5 0.1 31.0 1.2

381.5 MW 15.1 %

to vo l ot tech ow 18 att Sc .0 an MW 24 ce .0 ll MW 0.7 Sun 27 .5 wa M W 1. 0 % y 30. % 1 0M Erso W 1 .1 % l 40 .2 % .0 M Duets W 1 .6 % che S olar 51.0 M W 2. 0% Isofoto

666.3 MW 26.4 %
Schott
83.0 MW 3.3 %

MW Solland (NE) Ever-Q (DE) BP Solar (DE) Solarwatt (DE) Antec (DE) Helios (IT) Wrth Solar (DE)
6

% 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 3.1

18.0 15.0 12.3 8.0 8.0 5.0 2.4 10.0 78.7

n 61.0 MW 2.4 %

Q-Cells
253.1 MW 10.0 %

Ph o

Ph

Other 2008/1/14

Event, Venue information

PV News April 2007 :Prometheus Institute : partly amended by K.Y.

17 30 .5 .0 M M W W 0. 1. 7 % 2 %

1.2 % MW 201.6 MW % 0 . 1 3 0. 9 % s r W e M Oth 1.0 8.0 % 2. 0 % ) 2 6 MW r e .1 w . 1 o 5 % p 2 tro MW 1.4 ar (As .0 Sol GE 8 P % 2 B MW S 2.4 .0 C I 5 3 ON MW % A OV 0 C r . .1 0 ld 3 ola 6 r S d W wo ar i te M lar ol o Un 7 S . S t rs 78 Fi s r e th O

US

2006 PV Cell Production 2,521.8 MW


Europe

Sanyo
155.5 MW 6.2 % Mitsubishi Elec. 111.0 MW 4.4 %
Kaneka Others
MW Mitsubishi HEL 12.0 Hitachi Other 5.0 0.5 17.5 % 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.7

PV Demands
Surces: IEA; YOSHINO Consultant Co.

Cumulative Installed PV in IEA PVPS Countries


MW 3,000

MO42:wwpccominst06

2,863

2,000

1,910 1,708.5

Ger m any
1,421.9 pa a

2,500

1,500

1,000
624

500
Australia

479 US

Spain
118.2 70.3 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Trends in PV Applications, Survey report of selected IEA countries between 1992 and 2006 Report IEA-PVPS T1-16:2007

2008/1/14

Event, Venue information

(2007/12)

Potential Renewable Energy Capacity in Taiwan


Potential capacity Evaluation criteria

Solar PV3,450MW
1.15m households3kW each Annual peak o/p : 1,200 hr
Wind Power4,800MW On-shore : 1,600MW Off-shore : 3,200MW Annual full-load o/p : 2,500 hr

From DOI data for 1992~2004, total building roof top projected area ~115,139,400 m2, the estimate is based on a 30% installation ratio and each kWp requiring 10 m2 .

Considering only regions with annual wind speed > 5m/s and wind density > 200W/m2, after eliminating restricted zones, current estimate yielded on-shore wind farm potential of more than 1,600MW. Offshore potentialestimate of ~1,200 MW for shallow seabed (5~20m depth), preliminary estimate give ~ 2,000 MW for deeper seabed.

Biomass 7.6 MKLOE/y Bio-crop 2.6 MKLOE/y Wastes 5.0 MKLOE/y

Estimated from bio-crop, cellulose resources and wastes : Bio-crop and cellulose 2.6MKLOE (ex. Natier grass, 145K hectare) Municipal Wastes 12 mTon Industrial Wastes 4.32 mTon (organic non-toxic waste incl. paper rejects, wastes plastics, ) Bio-gas 88 x 107 m3 (incl. industrial and agricultural waste waters recycling) Power generation potentials for shallow reservoirs is estimated to be 600 MWe. Preliminary evaluations on power generation potentials for deep reservoirs is underway for Ilan-Luodong-Sansing and Tatun area.

Geothermal Shallow reservoirs600MWe (0-3000m) Deep reservoirs under (3000-10000m) evaluation

2008/1/14

Event, Venue information

Sustainable Energy Development Policies in Taiwan


Support economic growth without sacrificing future generations need for further development. maintain a balance of Environmental Protection , Energy Security and Industrial competitiveness . ensuring a stable energy supply through utilization of environmentally friendly clean energy, renewable energy and energy efficiency.

Energy
Sustainable environments and renewable energy supply
Environmentall y friendly energy utilization

Sufficient , stable and affordable energy services

Innovative technologies for green energy industry

Environment

High quality and stable resources for production

Economy

Reflecting external cost structure to strengthen economic development


9

2008/1/14

Event, Venue information

Strategies for Attaining Renewable Energy Targets


With Wind Power, Solar PV and Bio-energy as primary candidates, a focus on R&D and other measures will result in lowering cost and induce private investments, while supplementing promotional efforts on Solar thermal, mini-hydro, geothermal, ocean energy and hydrogen, leading to a broad-based utilization.

Wind Power With comparable power generation cost to conventional power plants, shall promote rapid installation in good wind resources regions.

Solar PV
Still an expensive form of electricity, but is a high valueadded products, shall capitalize on local know-how to establish a competitive industries.

Bio-energy Shall follow worldwide trend to quickly develop a viable domestic bio-diesel and bioethanol infrastructure to counter a rise in crude oil prices. Geothermal and mini-hydro Slow near-term potential due to eco-issues, will focus on special demos. Ocean and hydrogen energy

Still need longer-term R&D.

10

2008/1/14

Event, Venue information

Taiwan Renewable Energy Targets

Target for Renewable Power Develop indigenous/sustainable renewable resources as supplemental power. Utilize this new market and promotional efforts to induce establishment of new energy industries. Target for 2025 is set at 8,450 MW.
2006 MW 1.Hydro 2.Wind Power 3.Solar Power 4.Geothermal 5.Biomass 6.Fuel Cell 7.Ocean Energy Total Share of RE power in national electricity generation capacity 1,911 203.7 1.6 --600 ----2,716 7.3% % 5.1 0.5 0.0 2010 MW 2,168 980 31 --741 ----3,910 10.3% % 5.7 2.6 0.1 2015 MW 2,261 1,480 320 10 1.9 850 50 1 4,972 11.2% %
5.1 3.4 0.7 0.0 1.9 0.1 0.0

2025 MW 2,500 3,000 1,000 150 1,400 200 200 8,450 14.9% % 4.4 5.3 1.8 0.3 2.5 0.4 0.4

1.6

Note: national electricity generation capacity (excluding self-use power): 2006 37.38GW; 2010 38.28GW; 2015 44.18GW; 2025 56.64 GW
11

2008/1/14

Event, Venue information

Taiwan Renewable Energy Industry Development Targets


PV, wind power and biomass have been selected as major sectors. Strategically develop the key technologies which would drive down production cost, build up strengths for industry development, and encourage deployment.

Sales Volume Targeted


PV industry
2006 2007 2008 2010 2015 Wind Power Industry
2006 2010

21.2 Billion NTD 40 90 150 Billion NTD (50 B) Billion NTD Billion NTD

400 Billion NTD


Biomass Industry
2006 2010 2015

0.7 Billion NTD 3 Billion NTD

0.03 Billion NTD 6 20 Billion NTD Billion NTD

2015 20 Billion NTD

12

2008/1/14

Event, Venue information

Photovoltaic Development History in Taiwan


1980-1990 -Mono-crystalline silicon(2 inches), amorphous silicon(ITRI) -Sinonar Amorphous spin-off from ITRI(1987) 1991-2000 -mono-crystalline silicon(4 inches,1992,ITRI) -Motech founded(2000) 2001-Initiate PV promotion program(2001,MOEA) -Blooming solar PV research(2005) -dye-sensitized(2002),thin-film and others(2005) -DelSolar spin-off from ITRI(2004) -3 ingot/wafer, 8 C-Si solar cell(2006/9) -Renewable Energy Act waiting for legislation approval

13

2008/1/14

Event, Venue information

Solar Cell Technologies Roadmap


MWp 1000
Technology Milestone Policy Measures
14

Establishment of polysilicon materials industry


1.5 generation of low-cost crystalline silicon solar cell technology

Power generation cost < 7 NT$/kWh


2.5 generation of non-vacuum printed solar cell technology High-efficiency concentrating solar cell system

1000MWp

75 Construction of verification 0 platform and national


standards

Commercialization of 3rd generation solar cell


Develop flexible organic solar cell

50 0 25 0 0

R&D of integrated equipment and process of high-efficiency crystalline and thin film-based silicon solar cells. Module Verification Technology

320MWp
Commercialization of next generation solar cell
Develop high-efficiency siliconsolar cell 2015 based thin film 2020

1MWp

2006
Renewable Energy

31MW p 2010

2025

Set up Fund to subsidize

Increasing solar PV installation

Development Act New Public works to install solar PV


2008/1/14

electricity purchase The establishment of solar PV technology testing certification areas Promoting 100,000 sun roof project

percentage on public works Adding building with solar PV installation into energy-saving assessment scheme

Event, Venue information

Research Activities in ITRI


Dye-sensitized solar cell (commercial product in 2010)
materials, unit cell and module design and packaging lab scale manufacturing stability and efficiency10% Si-crystal solar cell (major product before 2015) texturization (acid etching) and back contact (laser firing contact) wafer thinning (130m) efficiency20% Si thin-film solar cell (main product in 2010) a-Si/C-Si tandem cell fast deposition rate (~15/S) on big glass substrate efficiency10% Poly-silicon development (Fast response to industry needs) pyro-metallurgical process

15

2008/1/14

Event, Venue information

Solar Cell Industry in Taiwan


Status More than 50 manufacturers for wafer, solar cell, module and 20 for system. Thin film solar cell is starting to develop. Module production capacity will arrive 108 MWp from 15 companies. Annual output will rank fourth in the world in 2007. Problem ( Challenges): Lack of Si raw materials and production equipment autonomy; Si based crystal cell Turnkey-technology needs improvement Modules verification capacity should be expanded; Thin film module detection and system technology yet to be established.
Event, Venue information

16

2008/1/14

PV Industry Value Chain of Taiwan


1. More than 76 companies: 16 for crystalline silicon, 10 for thin film, 15 for module, and 6~7 for silicon wafer. 2. Rely on oversea market and material supply: 98% of wafers imported and 97% of solar cells exported.
Industry
Up Stream Mid Stream Down Stream PV System &

Poly-Si Material

Si Ingots &Wafer

Solar Cell

PV Module
Tyn Solar Lucky Power PS Tech Ligitek Gloria Solar abakus Solar >15 companies

PV Product Motech, China Electric Ebright,Lucky Power, Uniergy engineering Delta28 Companies

Motech, E-Ton No producer Sino-American Si DelSolar, Gintech Solartech, in Taiwan yet. Product Neo Solar Power Green Energy --------------MCL, ITRI Technology Sinonar , Tgenergy is now studying Wafer Works Mosel Vitelic, Big Sun Pyro(Shanghai ) ----------------metallurgical Motech ( Kunshan ) NexPower, Formosun Si technology Tech--------------MJC .. Energy > 7 Companies Green Kenmos.. SourcePVTC/ITRI (2007/11) 28 Companies
2008/1/14 Event, Venue information

Company

III-V Solar Cell in Taiwan Epitaxy for Solar Cell :3 Companies Package of Receiver:4 Companies Solar Cell Device Processing:2 Companies Concentrator manufacturing: 3 Companies Solar Tracker manufacturing: 3 Companies

17

Si -Cell Production Capacity Forecast in Taiwan


Valid for only one week !!??

Unit: MWp
2007E 240
70/200

Fiscal Year Motech E-Ton DelSolar GinTech Solartech Neo Solar Mosel Vitelic
Top Green Energy

2005 60 28 6 94

2006
110/200
32.5/100

2008E 420 300 150 560 110 210 90 90 90 2,020

2009E 540 300 200 >560 >110 300 90 90 90

2010E 540 300 250 600 400 -

2011E 1,500 500 -

20/50 15/60
177.5

100 210 60 90 30 30 30 990

Big Sun
Total(estimation)

>2,280 2,200?

Source: PV News and PVTC, ITRI, January 2008.


18

2008/1/14

Event, Venue information

Si- thin film investment in Taiwan, >250 MWp in 2008


Company Name Technology cooperation partners

, Sinonar Solar , Formosun Technology , Nex Power , Nano Win Tech ,Green Energy Technology ,Sunner Solar
, Sun Well Solar

EPV EPV ULVAC Nano PV (Applied Materials) ULVAC Oerlikon Nano PV


sourceITRI(2007/09)

, Kenmos Photovoltaic
19

2008/1/14

GaAsEvent, investment Excluded Venue information

PV cluster in Taiwan

()() () ()


() ()

() () ()()()

()

()()()() () ()()()

Note( )
20

2008/1/14

Event, Venue information

(2007/12)

PV Subsidy Programs from Bureau of Energy


1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 50% PV System Subsidy for Residential & Enterprises (max. 150 K NTD/ kWp) 100% PV System Subsidy for Public Sectors( project based) PV for Remote Area and Emergency Center for Disaster PV Systems for Traffic Facilities 2006 Solar CityHualien & Taipei Counties 2006 Solar TopBIPV for 4 Sites (Tainan City, Kaohsiung City, and PingTung County) Solar Campus (40 schools,Co-funding with Ministry of Education) Solar Communities project Compulsory for Public Buildings
(Currency

8. PV for Agricultural Applications D Funding supported by BOE, MOEA is NT$ 430 millions (9.6 millions ) in 2007.
Exchange Rate: 1 = NT$ 45.0)
21

2008/1/14

Event, Venue information

PV Cost vs. Pay back period


Based on IEA & EPIA conditions and reports
System life time25 y IRR = 4% Main.fee=0.5% System priceIEA&JP Morgan report 2007.11.05 Page31)

Country Electricity output (kWh/kWp/Day) System price (NTD/kWp) Feed-in-tariff (NTD/kWh) Cost (NTD/kWh) Pay back (y)

Germany

Japan

USA 3.7

Spain 3.5

Taiwan 3.1

2.4

2.8

193,800 27.5 (0.574) 15.27 10.41

190,000 6.8 (23) 12.83 >100

258,00 0 12.6 (0.39) 13.18 27.22

178,000(s ubsidy) 12.6 (0.39) 9. 1 14.85

280,000 21 (0.44) 15.13 14.8

300,00 0

150,000 (Sub.) 10

18.30 >100

9.15 21.4

referenceITRI PVTC (2007/12)


1 IEAJP Morgan 2007.11.05 Page15 & Page31 22007.11.27148132.3 10.297 3 IEA&EPIA1~3RoofRoof-top -BerlinCologneMunich -SapporoTokyo Hiroshima -Los Angeles Washington Houston Event, Venue information 2008/1/14 - BarcelonaMadrid Sevilla -20071~9

22

PV Incentive Program in Major Markets


Germany Spain USA Japan Taiwan

Enhanced feed-in tariffs Direct capital subsidies Green electricity schemes PV-specific green electricity schemes Renewable portfolio standards (RPS) PV requirement in RPS Investment funds for PV Tax credits Net metering Net billing Commercial bank activities Electricity utility activities Sustainable building requirements
IEA(2007/11)PVTC (2007/12)
23

3 3 3

3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

3 3 3 3 3 3(com.)

3 3 3

3 3 3

3 3

2008/1/14

Event, Venue information

2006 Solar City of Taiwan Hualien County

3-2

BIPV Capacity: 200 kWp


24

2008/1/14

Event, Venue information

2006 Solar Top (BIPV) of Taiwan

National Museum of Taiwan HistoryTainan City (195 kWp)

True Love Harbor Kaohsiung City (70 kWp)

3-2
25

3D

2008/1/14

Hakka Culture Center & Park Pingtung County (75 kWp) Event, Venue information

National Marine Life Museum Pingtung County (100 kWp)

PV Installation in Taiwan
Accumulated installation 2004 2005 570 kWp in 60 sites 966 kWp in 107 sites

2006 1,306 kWp in 144 sites 2007 2,060 kWp in 243 sites

26

2008/1/14

Event, Venue information

(2006/10)

The largest single PV system ,50 kWp

27

2008/1/14

Event, Venue information

PV System Installed at Tai-Ping Island

China

Taiwan

To encourage the off-shore islands to install hybrid PV systems and to improve the power supply condition

Southern China Sea Vietnan Tai-Ping

Philippines

20 kWp Hybrid PV System with Diesel Generator Designed by MRL, ITRI (Finished at November, 2001)
28

Island

2008/1/14

Event, Venue information

2006 Solar City of Taiwan Taipei County


4kWp 3

1.1kWp

PV Capacity: 195 kWp


2

3-2

29

2008/1/1 4

Event, Venue information

1MWp BIPV under Construction in Taiwan


Main Stadium of 2009 World Games, in Kaohsiung City (1MWp BIPV)

30

2008/1/14

Event, Venue information

Taiwan Photovoltaic Industry Association TPVIA 1. A non-profit organization. 2. As a discussion and communication platform for government, industries research organizations and universities. 3. Promote PV technology for Taiwan PV industry. 4. Facilitate international corporation.

31

2008/1/14

Event, Venue information

Taiwan Photovoltaic Industry Association


Upper Stream
Silicon & Ingots 3 Members
Equipments: 21 Members Total number of members is 131 ,including:
PV ingot, wafers, solar cells, modules manufacturers and suppliers PV related facility manufacturers and materials suppliers PV system installers Balance of system (BOS) component suppliers Universities and Research Institutes(9) Other related electrical components , materials ,manufacturers and suppliers(30)
2008/1/14 Event, Venue information

Middle Stream
Solar Cell

Down Stream
Building Industry

Wafer

PV System & PV Module Installation

Item
32

No. of Member

17 Cells, 9 Modules

26 Members 6 Members

Inverter

Test of Fire- Taiwans PV Industry


With no domestic market, Taiwan wants to become the PV manufacturer to the world. Taiwan may be small, but its PV dreams are grand. Forget the domestic market, Taiwans PV future lies in offshore sales.

---Photon International January 2006

E-Ton Motech
33

Green Energy
Event, Venue information

2008/1/14

Why Taiwans PV Industry can win?


1. Industry: ambitious PV players and strong manufacturing Capability( quick investment, fast scale up and then price killer/ keeper ??). 2. Excellent Infrastructure: based on semiconductor, optical disk, TFT-LCD, and precision machinery industries experiences. 3. Strong Government support and Committeemen: (Bureau of Energy, Industrial Development Bureau, Department of Industrial Technology, MOEA). 4. RD capability: Universities, PVTC/ ITRI. INER and Chung-San Institute of Science and Technology.
34

2008/1/14

Event, Venue information

PV Industry ~ Next Energy star !!!

Energy

Value
Optoelectronics Information, etc.. Semiconductors Petrochemicals

60
35

70

80

90

2000

2010

2020

2008/1/14

Event, Venue information

Thank You for Your Attention

Vision, Passion, for Sustainable & Sunny Taiwan

36

2008/1/14

Event, Venue information