ANUSH SHARES AND SECURITIES PVT LTD

WEEKLY NEWSLETTER
AUG 12 16, 2013 EDITION: 03 VOLUME: 04

MARKET DURING THE WEEK

Index Performance The passing holiday truncated week was a complete disaster for the Indian markets, when the benchmarks after showing strong sign of recovery slumped in the last session, paring all their weekly gains. The culprit can be called the steep depreciation in rupee, which breached its all time low on the last trading day after government and RBI came all-out on containing the current account deficit and traders feeling that measures being taken by the government and the RBI are not proving effective. The markets made a good start of the week with major indices extending their rally surged by about a percent despite some weak earnings announcement and disappointment from the banking counter on RBI's fresh steps to drain cash from the banking system. The supporting factor was the from the exports front. After two straight months of contraction, exports from India shot up by 11.64% at $25.83 billion in July 2013 against $23.14 billion in the same month of the previous year, however the trade deficit was almost unchanged at $12.27 billion. The next day jubilation got extended with annual inflation rate based on all India general Consumer Price Indices (CPI) combined coming down to 9.64% in July on point to point basis, as against 9.87% in the month of June. The battered banking sector too, took cues from the RBI Governor D Subbarao's statement that 'perhaps', there is a need to reduce the CRR and SLR rates. Markets extended their gains on Wednesday for the fourth straight session before going for a holiday, despite ugly WPI numbers as India's main inflation gauge, based on monthly WPI, shot higher to 5.79% (Provisional) for the month of July, against 4.86% (Provisional) for the previous month of June. The final day of trade witnessed brutal carnage with markets not only lost all their gains of the week but various support levels and major benchmark dropping to their around two year low. During the week ended August 16, 2013, Sensex shaved off 191.16 points or 1.02% to 18598.18 and Nifty plunged by 57.80 points or 1.04% to 5507.85. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in equity segment in the week leading to a net inflow of `447.90 crore.

Future Outlook In the coming week, traders will be eyeing the global 108 economic progress as well as the domestic political 106 105 development. The issue of the payment crisis on National 103 Spot Exchange (NSEL) is expected to be taken up in 102 100 Parliament next week and the commodity traders will be 99 eyeing the same after the FMC directed NSEL to upload 12-Aug 13-Aug 14-Aug 15-Aug 16-Aug the settlement calendar on its website. Traders will be MCX CRUDE MCX GOLD closely eyeing the movement of rupee after it touched its all time low in the passing week on concern that the RBI measures to curb capital outflows would prove insufficient. However, it has came as a blessing in disguise for the exporters, as a weaker rupee has made them more competitive in the international markets as demand picks up in the United States and the European Union. There will be some buzz in the solar power equipment makers stocks, as the government may decide next week
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whether to impose duties on imports of solar equipment. Indian producers of photovoltaic cells and modules, pushed for the government investigation after saying foreign competitors from the US, China, Taiwan and Malaysia had sold products at below cost in India. Traders will also watch for Consumer price index (Agricultural Labourers/ Rural Labourers) slated to be announced on August 20th. On the global front, traders will be eyeing the announcement of US Existing Home Sales data and FOMC Minutes on August 21st followed by Jobless Claims and PMI Manufacturing Index Flash data on August 22nd and finally the New Home Sales data on Friday August 23rd

GLOBAL OUTLOOK
US Markets The US market continued its weak trade during the passing 104 week, after several upbeat economic reports spurred 102 thinking that the Federal Reserve will begin to scale back its 100 monthly bond buys in September. Investors have started 98 96 anticipating that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke 94 next month will probably reduce the central bank's $85 12-Aug 13-Aug 14-Aug 15-Aug 16-Aug billion in monthly bond purchases. The Federal Open Market DOWJONES USD Committee's first step may be small, with monthly purchases tapered by $10 billion to a $75 billion pace. The Federal Reserve will end the buying by mid-2014. There were some encouraging report on economic front, retail sales rose for the fourth straight month in July, and details of the report suggested some firming in consumer spending. Retail sales overall rose a sluggish 0.2% in July. The core retail sales excluding autos, gas and building materials, rose 0.5% in July. That was the strongest gain this year. Consumer spending drives about two-thirds of demand in the US economy. Meanwhile, the federal government posted a budget deficit of $97.6 billion in July, a rise from the same month ago; though a rise in tax receipts may make the annual budget gap the smallest in five years.

European Markets The European markets in the passing week encountered a volatile trade despite euro zone finally returning to growth after being stuck for over 18 months in a double-dip recession. Bolstered by stronger consumption and investment in Germany as well as growth in France, Europe broke out of recession in the second quarter, ending its longest post-war contraction. The two biggest economies in the 17-nation euro zone each helped pull the region as a whole out of its doldrums, with Germany posting 2.8% annualized growth in the second quarter and France 2.0%. German GDP expanded by 0.7% Q-o-Q in the second quarter. Over all, GDP in the zone grew 1.2%, according to Eurostat, the official statistics office of the EU. The euro zone's return to growth owes most to the European Central Bank president Mario Draghi's commitment to use monetary policy to combat the risk of a euro breakup and the German chancellor Angela Merkel's political backing for him. Besides, a surprisingly strong showing came from Portugal, where the economy grew 4.4% in the second quarter, the highest rate in the 28-nation European Union.
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Asian Markets Asian equity benchmarks resumed their northward journey 105 after a week of halt as investors' risk appetite improved 103 after Europe's economy finally started picking up steam 102 with German investor confidence increasing more than 100 forecasted. On the regional turf, investors remained 99 12-Aug 13-Aug 14-Aug 15-Aug 16-Aug optimistic on the back of improving Chinese economic YEN NIKKEI environment as indicated by the latest stronger-thanexpected Index of Industrial Production (IIP). The nation's factory output grew in July at its fastest pace since the start of the year, adding to a run of data suggesting the world's second-largest economy may be stabilizing after more than two years of slumping growth. Factory output rose 9.7% in July from a year earlier, the fastest growth since output grew 9.9% over January and February. Meanwhile, Japanese Nikkei too remained in the green during the week as the yen weakened on report that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is considering a corporate tax cut as a way to offset the impact of a planned twostage increase in the sales tax. However, the gains remained capped as the country's economy grew slower than expected in the last quarter. Japan's economy grew at an annualized 2.6% in the AprilJune period, cooling sharply from a rapid 4.1% gain in the first calendar quarter.

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GLOBAL INDEX PERFORMANCE

INDEX NIKKEI HANG SENG DAX FTSE NASDAQ DOWJONES Current 13650.11 22517.81 8391.94 6499.99 3602.78 15081.47 Change 34.92 710.25 53.63 -83.40 -57.33 -344.04 % 0.26 3.26 0.64 (1.27) (1.57) (2.23)

CURRENCY AND COMMODITIES

Rate $/` $/ MCX CRUDE MCX GOLD MCX SILVER MCX COPPER 61.71 97.55 6698 30755 50887 464.55 Change 0.99 0.81 304 2855 8311 22.85 % 1.63 0.84 4.75 1 0.23 1 9.52 5.17

TOP NIFTY GAINERS

SCRIP RANBAXY TATASTEEL TATAMOTORS DLF NMDC CMP ` 379.60 235.35 313.95 145.45 108.75 Change 98.10 27.41 35.06 14.35 8.90 % 34.85 13.18 12.57 10.95 8.91

TOP NIFTY LOSERS

SCRIP BHEL SBIN PNB RELIANCE TATAPOWER CMP ` 105.55 1570.60 500.25 826.70 73.45 Change -10.10 -145.53 -32.44 -45.71 -3.55 % (8.73) (8.48) (6.09) (5.24) (4.61)

INDEX PERFORMANCE
INDEX NIFTY SENSEX BANK NIFTY CNX IT CNX MIDCAP Current 5507.85 18598.18 9450.85 7774.20 6748.30 Change -57.80 -191.16 -365.55 -27.25 25.20 % (1.04) (1.02) (3.72) (0.35) 0.37

FII ACTIVITY
Date 12-Aug 13-Aug 14-Aug 16-Aug Net (338.60) 415.70 76.30 294.70

in ` Cr.
Nifty 46.75 86.90 43.00 (234.45)

NET
*In Stock Exchange

448.10

-57.80

For further queries, contact: ANALYST HARI BASKAR GNANARAJ DAVID E-MAIL haribaskar@anushshares.com gnanaraj@anushshares.com CONTACT NO 044 24616234 044 24616721

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