Antecipando o futuro: uma estratgia para inovaes radicais

- a business perspective
17st of Mar, Sao Paulo Dr. Beate Schlageter Strategic Marketing Corporate Research & Technologies Siemens AG beate.schlageter@siemens.com

Seminrio Rumos da inovao no contexto empresarial brasileiro Diamond Tower Condomnio Rochaver

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Content

Part 1: Introduction of our Picture of the Future Process

Part 2: Example of Picture of the Future Project: Smart Sustainable Cities in 2030 -2050

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Siemens is an integrated technology company CT, the corporate R&D department, is driving integration

Innovations of Products, Systems and Solutions

Innovation @ Siemens: Facts & Figures

The Integrated Technology Company

Key R&D figures

R&D spending: 3.925 billion EUR in fiscal 2011, or 5.3% of revenue 27,800 R&D employees worldwide

Customers Universities Research Institutes Start-ups / VCs Suppliers

Industry

Sectors / Divisions

Energy

Healthcare

Infrastructure & Cities

Roughly 18,000 software engineers 178 R&D locations in >30 countries around the world 8,600 inventions in fiscal 2011 53,300 active patents

Corporate Technology (CT)

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Networks are the breeding grounds for innovation

Research Institutes Universities

Key Customers

Other Industries

Competitors

Governmental partners ''Think Tanks''

Start-up / VCs

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Get Out of the Box!

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November 25th 2011 | Michael Lipka | Siemens AG VDMA Bayern | Mitgliederversammlung 2011

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Since year 2000, several PoFs have been elaborated:

Smart Sustainable Cities

Lighting Drive Technologies

Power Transmission & Distribution

Building

Information & Communications Healthcare Services Energy Transportation Automation & Control

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- What makes the difference?

STRATEGIC VISIONING by combination of extrapolation and retropolation

Scenarios for Business Segments

Trends

Energy

Society Technology & Research

CURRENT BUSINESS

via roadmaps

Products Technologies Customer requirements

potential new markets customer requirements technologies business impacts

Industry

Healthcare

Economy

ins ide the box

today
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Ecology
Infrastructure & Cities

Policies medium term long term

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short term

Time horizon (varies according to business segment)

out of the box

Extrapolation

Hypot

heses

Retropolation

Pictures of the Future Key Inputs & Outputs/Value Propositions

External view/opinion and evaluation of regional/(global) market/business trends (interviews with external opinion leader) Other external sources conferences, studies, .. Internal view/opinion and evaluation of regional market/business trends (interviews, workshops, desk research)

Picture of the Future

Input
Pictures of the Future Trends/Markets Scenarios Business Impact Business Opportunities Technologies

Output
Impact on mainstream business Impact on CT T business Leverage synergies between Group and CT Alignment of CT portfolio Communication tool

Implement

Update the overall long-term innovation strategy Realize new business opportunities Support mid/ long term roadmaps by division
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Communication of Group innovative strength to major stakeholders

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Scenarios for Business Segments

Power Transmission and Distribution Electrical World

Trends
Society Technology & Research

Building Bulbs Drive Technologies Light Production, Transportation, Economy

Industry Automation Provisioning and Life Cycle of Goods

Business Domain not Business Portfolio!

Ecology

Policies

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out of the box

Building Automation

Picture of the Future Documentation Overview

Trend Analysis

PESTEL & industry specific trends

Expert Interviews

Experts from industry universities governments and other NGO

Scenario
Scenario of the business corresponding domain

Business Impact
Conclusions out of the scenario for the industry type and in turn the specific business environment of Siemens

Technology Roadmap
A technology roadmap documenting the technological feasibility of the scenario.

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General Trends and Hypotheses Overview

Effective, Unobtrusive Safety and Security

Environmental Pollution & Regulation

Sustainability in Use of Resources

Building Operation Evolution

Pre-Fabricated Building Components

Flexible Buildings

380 Trends

13 Trend Cluster

Energy Environmental Policy Infrastructure Economy Social Technology

Energy Efficiency and Supply

Moving People and Goods

Well-Being and Health within Building

Optimized Building Cluster

New Construction Material

Information & Communication

Integrated Building Life Cycle Management

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Sub-scenarios develop the whole scenario Key drivers for sub-scenario

Sub-scenarios
Drivers Energy Efficiency
Forces in GHG reduction Interests of building related stakeholders Homeland security Increasing proliferation of e-cars No serious alternatives to fossil fuel Lack of adequate water supply infrastructure

Water Sustainability Quality of Work and Living Space Unobtrusive Safety and Security
Efficient and Safe Movement of People and Goods

Indoor air quality issues

Increasing transportation bottlenecks Decreasing reliability of electricity supply

Impacts of global warming

On-going energy price fluctuation

Emissions fees Growing social divide Water scarcity Increasing application of renewable energy Reality of Internet of Things Increasing capabilities of smart materials Evolving special economic zones

Ubiquitous Devices Integrated Building Life-cycle Integrated Building Operation Building Clusters <nur fr internen Gebrauch>

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Retropolation meets Extrapolation: Implementation of Picture of the Future results

Deliverable of PoF Project Transfer
compare with current business set up reflect on current roadmaps initiate deep dives for new expertise understand impact on skill management analyze portfolio identify research demand proposal on partnering (M&A)

Implementation

Scenario with scenario elements/sub-scenarios Description of impact on business environment Description of impact on Siemens business Verified business opportunities Verified enablers (technologies / business capabilities) Recommendations on main drivers

Business Business Strategy Strategy Decision Decision Support Support

Technology Technology Strategy Strategy Decision Decision Support Support

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Pictures of the Future: Siemens Leading Medium for Innovation Communications

w ew N Ne

PoF: 100,000 copies, in >100 countries. German, English, Chinese Abridged / adapted versions in French, Portuguese, Russian, Turkish
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Picture of the Future - Smart Sustainable City in 2030 - 2050 Trends and Scenarios for Future Life Part in The Crystal

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To identify future challenges and comprehensive solutions

STRATEGIC VISIONING by combination of extrapolation and retropolation

Scenarios with SubTrends/ scenarios Influencing factors

Society Technology & Research

CURRENT BUSINESS

via roadmaps

Main influencing factors on Rio Potential solutions/levers for city challenges (technologies, business models)
Cities 2030- 2050

Products Technologies Customer requirements

Economy

Ecology

Policies And City Domain trends

ins ide the box

today
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short term

medium term

long term
<nur fr internen Gebrauch>
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Time horizon (varies according to business segment)

out of the box

Extrapolation

Retropolation

Examples PESTL trends/influencing factors

Influencing factor: Migration
Population growth Over the next 40 years, the world population will balloon to 9.0 billion, up 20% (0.9% or 1.4 billion people p.a.) New UNO study released in May 2011; percent of increase will be higher -> 9.3 billion in 2050

Influencing factor: Social

Increasing life expectation Life expectancy will continue to increase, median age will rise and aging of population will even accelerate. Globally, the median age will move up by 5.1 years with increasing influence of the elderly generation. The new power of future middle class in developing countries The purchasing power of billions of people in the BRIC markets will rise considerably by 2030. According to Goldman Sachs's definition, the middle class in the BRIC countries will grow 150%, from 0.8 billion people today to 2.0 billion in 2030. Growing social divide Poorest 40 % of the worlds population account for 5 % of global income, the richest 20% for 75 % of the worlds income

Influencing factor: Environ.

Consequences from global warming are becoming visible By 2030, the average temperature will rise by 0.5--1.5 C and the sea level will increase by 6-11 cm

Urbanization The urban share of the population will continue to rise at high speed (8.5 percentage points) and growth will even accelerate compared to the last 20 years (7.8 percentage points). By 2030, 4.9 billion people, or 59% of the world's population, will live in cities.

Need for alternative energy sources Over the next 20 years, primary energy consumption in developing countries will grow about 15 times faster than in developed countries

Water scarcity 1,800 million people will be living in countries or regions with absolute water scarcity by 2025, and twothirds of the world population could be under stress conditions

<nur fr internen Gebrauch>

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Driver/influencing factors for city development

ARCHITEC. & URBAN MANAG.
Energy efficiency certification such as LEED gain importance for investors Worldwide increasing numbers of laws, regulations and incentives for more energy efficiency Urbanization enhances demand for new living spaces Lack of urban space and high cost for infrastructure Increasing pollution in cities forces adaptation of sustainable housing standards Advances in materials and construction methods Increasing demand of energy and resilience of power supply Low air quality and lack of recreation space reduces citys attractiveness in developing/emerging countries Seite 18

IT/IC TECHNOLOGIES
Increasing penetration of IT by digitalization, interconnectivity and virtual technologies Further development of ICT operating systems and semantic web services Increasing application of virtualization and virtual worlds Sensor pervasion and internet of things throughout the environment increases Increasing deployment of eSolutions e.g. public domain apps for gov., admin. and businesses UGC, crowd sourcing and linking of data sources increases Digital natives promote ICT acceptance in daily life

SOCIAL STRUCTURES & VALUES

Decline of traditional family models, changing household structures Increasing migration and immigration of people Rising middle class in developing countries Increasing gap betw. poor and rich Aging societies but not like today Individualization and flexibility drive modern life Increasing demand for participation in governmental issues Pervasion of ICT technologies changes social behavior (e.g. communities) Change of work processes and leisure relation Desire for security and neighborhood bondsGebrauch> <nur fr internen
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City trends overview: Framework for scenario(s)

ADMINISTR., ADMINISTR., FINANCING FINANCING & & PARTICIP. PARTICIP. STRATEGY STRATEGY PLANNING PLANNING & & IDENTITY IDENTITY ARCHITECTURE ARCHITECTURE & & U-PLANNING/MANAG. U-PLANNING/MANAG. INFORMATION INFORMATION & & COMUNICATION COMUNICATION TECH. TECH. HEALTHCARE HEALTHCARE & & WELL-BEING WELL-BEING

more more partnerships partnerships ICT ICT as as key key enabler/ enabler/ driver driver

increased increased complexity complexity urbanization/demand urbanization/demand for for new newliving living spaces/ spaces/ land land scarcity scarcity

ICT/building ICT/building automa. automa. laws/incentives laws/incentives for for energy energy efficiency efficiency

increasing increasing penetration penetration of of IT IT by by digitalization digitalization sensor sensor pervasion pervasion digital digital natives natives

aging aging society society nano-/ nano-/ biobio- // gentech gentech

WORK WORK & & LEISURE LEISURE

273 Trends

12 Trend Cluster

remote remote work work places places 24/7 working 24/7 workinglife life drives drives up up stress stress levels levels virtual virtual techs techs

SAFETY SAFETY & & SECURITY SECURITY

RESOURCES RESOURCES & & RECYCLING RECYCLING

WATER WATER

TRANSPORTATION TRANSPORTATION & & LOGISTICS LOGISTICS

ENERGY ENERGY

SOCIAL SOCIAL STRUCTURES STRUCTURES

cyber cyber crime crime ubiquitous ubiquitous sensor sensor networks networks

lack lack of of landfill landfill space space scarcity scarcity of of agricultural agricultural land land

global global water water stress stress

growing growing traffic traffic volume/congestions volume/congestions regulation regulation changes changes traffic/mobility traffic/mobility pattern pattern

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increasing increasingmigration migration climate climate change change pervasion pervasion of of ICT ICT technologies increasing technologies increasing energy energy demand/ energy <nur fr internen Gebrauch> demand/ energy individualization // individualization independence independence flexibility flexibility
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Picture of the Future Smart Sustainable Cities Snapshot: IT/IC INFRASTRUCTURE

2050
Information and communication technologies (ICT) constitute the vital network of cities supporting and penetrating most aspect of urban life. Openness of data sources, rapid and flexible development and deployment of apps and services creates an Open Linked Data City. In a Real-Time City, the convergence of data sources, applications and virtual technologies enable fast response and decision support for any situation. In a Participating City, city stakeholders act as prosumers for city data with their ubiquitous digital footprints.

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Picture of the Future Smart Sustainable Cities Snapshot: SOCIAL STRUCTURES & VALUES

2050
Global migration leads to social and cultural diversity in urban areas. A structural shift of economic power is based on rising wealth, better education and living standards of middle classes, especially in Asia. Down ageing: live long - stay young Virtual/ICT technologies and highly flexible lifestyle will lead to Access Society influencing human values and traditions. Successful vertical democracy and appreciated social engagement raising communities / cooperative individualism creates new communities Flexible lifestyle and planning
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Picture of the Future Smart Sustainable Cities Snapshot: ARCHITECTURE & URBAN MANAGEMENT

2050
Zero emission housing-standard will be mandatory for all new buildings. Building clusters with multi-level infrastructure provide living space, work- and leisure opportunities in close distance. Scalability is achieved via decentralized infrastructures (waste, water, energy). New shapes and materials result in green and highly efficient building constructions optimized for regional climate and environment Quality of live is improved by building (cluster) construction (e.g. daylight concepts), green layers (in/out/between buildings) and improved mobility concepts Recycling of building and city constructions (lifecycle) Multi-purpose infrastructure
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Comprehensive Smart Sustainability City Scenario - Leading principles (Dense) city clusters with (dense) nodes Corridors for energy, water, food, goods by centralized supply

Green city layers Combination of holistic and decentralized decision structure Fixed mass transport and flexible/on demand mobility concepts Integrated city districts (advanced, smooth evolved, affordable)

Citizens as prosumer and access society

New business models e.g. PPP and pay per use

Decentralized infrastructure

New infrastructure e.g. floating harbor

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Comprehensive Smart Sustainability City Scenario 2030 - 2050

Sub-scenarios
Decentralized City

Sensible City

Seamless Mobility

Me X- Lifestyle

City in environmental balance

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SCENARIO 2030 2050 SENSITIVE/SENSIBLE CITIES

Simulation platforms for holistic planning Strategic planning is based on a holistic approach driven by individualized KPIs and supported by decision support tools forecast and upstream implementation Pervasive intelligent and self organizing devices e.g. ICT sources, databases or mobile devices Monitoring of water quality People, machines and goods will digitally interact with each other as well as among themselves.. Internet of Things/Persons Participating citizens: Citizens, acting as prosumers of city data by using city-apps and leaving their digital footprint City Operating System: Information and communication technologies constitute THE vital network of cities : Real-Time City Community and business based ICT shared services, apps (City App Store) and platforms are standard interaction tools for communication, governance and business: Open linked Data

Traffic monitoring and combination with air quality/ weather/ energy distribution

On demand waste disposal

Sensors inside of or in the faade for maintenance or emergency cases

Data source from citizens/ involvement of citizens Water quality/ leakage monitoring Monitoring for security of people/goods

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SCENARIO 2030 - 2050 CITY IN ENVIRONMENTAL BALANCE

Power supply by renewables via power corridors and decentralized power generation CO2 reduction by synth. Photosynthesis -> production of Methanol/H2 Building automation for optimized energy management Implementation of R-water systems and rain water collection facilities Building automation for improved energy efficiency Integrated wind wheels on building roofs, balcony, parking areas, New architectural building concepts e.g. bionically inspired design, high efficiency, biodegradable Buildings are adapted to regional aspects/zero emission buildings Building as a tree Thermal management/heat recovery: Use of waste water heat for building heating Integrated phase change materials for heat exchange optimization Harmonization of citizens and environment: Common understanding for environmental impacts: green mindset, me-green footprint

International water institution and water recycling

Integrated solar cells in buildings, streets, parking areas

Integrated river turbines for power generation

Energy harvesting e.g. body heat, step pressure Waste to power/ new logistic concepts in building/ city districts

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SCENARIO 2030 2050 Me X-LIFESTYLE

Cooperative Individualism: Taking responsibility for quality of life and society in cities by communities/ Individuals Global migration leads to social and cultural diversity in urban areas supporting community formation Down aging: Live long, stay young and active participation of daily city life Seamless change between virtual/ real life: New in-home and on-the-go entertainment Seamless switching between leisure and work life is enabled by technology New forms of shopping and entertainment e.g. shopping as experience Me- lifestyle emerges e.g. Me Time, Me-Education, Me-Health Pay per use society, access society Personalized living e.g. individual food production, individual energy profile

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Sub-SCENARIO 2030 - 2050 SEAMLESS MOBILITY On demand mobility by individual and mass transport
Holistic and intelligent/self organizing traffic management system (forecast, optimization, control) Seamless and intermodal public transportation for people and goods by new services (e.g. door-to-door service and on demand service) Fixes mass transports and high flexible on demand mobility New vehicle concepts for greener and more efficient traffic Always-on-services support flexible lifestyle and convenience (no effort for mobility) mobility Personal assistance Combination of public transport systems for goods/people Mega hubs integrating different traffic systems

Double use and flexibility of infrastructure

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To cope with transport demand and environmental challenges, all transport modes need to operate in concert
Technological enablers to address future Complete Mobility solutions Intermodal End-to-End travel - Intermodal real-time information, set-up R&D projects decision support and navigation solutions initiate deep dives for - Individual services for intermodal new expertise door to door travel
Protect our environment

2050

Complete Mobility The Network of Networks

Rail Cope with transport growth

Road

2011

Optimized uni-modal Networks

Demand-responsive rail - Real time infrastructure with open Air Sea communication to avoid traffic understand impact on accidents and improve traffic flow skill management - Autonomous e-drive - Car-to-car and car-to-street Alignment of communication roadmaps/innovation Mobility on demand/last mile strategy Facilitate sustainable concepts economic growth - New business models e.g. sharing of e-cars
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Based on requested future solutions set-up of R&D approaches inside of Siemens

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An Instrument for Technology and Business Management at Siemens

Smart Sustainability City Scenario 2030-2050 Power Transmission & Distribution

Picture of the Future

City Rio de Janeiro in 2030 + X

Building

Lighting

Smart Sustainability Rio Scenario 2030

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