aug3SSY Monthly Shipping Review - Aug 13

Editorial date: 13 August 2013
Monthly Shipping Review
ppv
Dry bulk: Softer; Tankers: Weaker; Ship values: Wet: Mixed; Dry: Stable
Dry Bulk BDI records its highest monthly average since 2011 in July (1123 points) before sinking back below 1,000 points for the first time in seven weeks on August 12. Positive impact of record South American grain season (and port congestion) may finally be on the wane. Grain activity from the Black Sea forms the biggest positive development for Supramaxes, with agri-analysts raising the regions grain export forecasts. Capesize TCs look to regain positive momentum as the FFA market surges. Tanker Transatlantic westbound MR earnings reached a peak of $15,750/day at the start of August, the highest since May, having risen throughout late July. Levels have since come off as the gasoline arb to the US has closed again. West African Suezmax rates have remained above $21,000/day in August, having firmed in the second half of July, on high levels of spot fixing, particularly from India. Operations at several Libyan export terminals have been halted again which could affect the Aframax market. Fleet Developments
12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0
Baltic Exchange Dry Index
Index
www.balticexchange.com
100 80 60 40 20 0
Sep-10 Dec-10
Sep-11
Dec-11
Sep-12
Dec-12
Sep-13
Fleet Developments
1.1.11 Existing No. MDwt Tanker 5,388 448.4 Bulk 8,013 534.2 Combi 48 5.2 Fleet >= 20 years Tanker 494 22.3 Bulk 2,417 117.4 Combi 19 1.3 Orderbook Tanker 966 116.2 Bulk 2,931 251.0 Combi 4 1.3 1.1.12 1.1.13 1.8.13 No. MDwt No. MDwt No. MDwt 5,605 477.7 5,715 494.4 5,789 503.3 8,771 610.6 9,323 674.2 9,483 697.8 37 4.4 24 3.3 21 3.1 449 20.8 430 2,111 101.8 1,568 8 0.5 5 19.7 468 77.8 1,355 0.2 4 23.7 73.7 0.1
Dry bulk tonnage supply grew further in

July, with 4.85mdwt of new ship deliveries far outweighing 1.84mdwt of fleet removals. This took total net growth in the dry bulk fleet to 25.5mdwt in the first seven months of 2013. By contrast, oil tanker supply fell slightly in July, as fleet removals surged, amid the scrapping of 5 VLCCs. At 1.99mdwt, total tanker tonnage removed from service exceeded new ship deliveries of 1.73mdwt, yet the fleet still grew by a net 10.55mdwt in January-July inclusive.
636 75.9 514 55.0 475 3.3 2,401 196.5 1,537 122.6 1,415 112.5 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0
Published by SSY Consultancy & Research Ltd, Lloyds Chambers, 1 Portsoken Street, London, E1 8PH Telephone: 020-7977 7400, Fax 020-7265 1549, Email: research@ssy.co.uk, Website: www.ssyonline.com
Registered: in England number 1971247 While care has been taken to ensure that the information in this publication is accurate SSY Consultancy & Research Limited can accept no responsibility for any errors or any consequences arising therefrom. Reproducing any material from this report without proper attribution to SSY is strictly forbidden.
Dec-13
-20
Jun-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13
Crude Tanker Spot Earnings

Weekly TCE Rates, US$000s/day
260 MEG-Japan 130 W.Africa-USAC 80 N.Sea-UKC
Dry Bulk Market

Representative Rates Last Day of Month Baltic Exchange Dry Index (4/1/85=1,000) Avg 4 Handysize T/C's Avg 4 Supramax T/C's Trans-Atlantic Round - Panamax Trip Cont/Far East - Panamax Trans-Pacific Round - Panamax TC Trip Far East/Cont 70,000 Iron Ore 150,000 Tub/Rotterdam Iron Ore 140,000 Tub/Beilun+Baoshan Coal 140,000 Richards Bay/Rotterdam 12 Month T/C modern type - 24,000 12 Month T/C modern type - 30,000 12 Month T/C modern type - 45,000 12 Month T/C modern type - 52,000 12 Month T/C modern type - 74,000 12 Month T/C modern type - 170,000 SSY Superhandymax Index/BSI Baltic Exchange Panamax Index SSY Atlantic Capesize Index (2/10/89=5,000) SSY Pacific Capesize Index (6/1/97=4,114) HS 380 CST Rotterdam/tonne Jul-11 1,264 9,944 13,161 $14,394 $21,515 $8,375 $3,961 $9.61 $19.38 $9.44 $10,375 $12,125 $11,702 $13,188 $12,625 $11,250 1,259 1,511 6,696 5,661 $659.00 Jul-12 897 8,438 10,789 $7,694 $16,649 $7,443 -$436 $7.26 $17.95 $6.13 $7,000 $8,750 $9,649 $10,875 $10,125 $10,500 1,032 982 5,335 4,155 $613.00 May-13 809 7,906 9,104 $7,439 $12,850 $4,961 $67 $7.59 $17.65 $6.44 $5,500 $7,250 $8,097 $9,125 $9,313 $10,500 871 795 5,161 4,727 $577.00 Jun-13 1,171 8,272 9,973 $10,100 $15,694 $6,358 -$124 $10.95 $21.42 $9.48 $6,000 $7,750 $8,207 $9,250 $8,563 $12,500 954 1,007 6,283 5,325 $579.00 Jul-13 1,062 7,778 9,539 $10,496 $16,684 $6,547 -$98 $8.96 $20.32 $8.36 $6,000 $7,750 $8,097 $9,125 $8,563 $13,000 912 1,057 6,353 5,283 $600.00 13/12% +18.4% -7.8% -11.6% +36.4% +0.2% -12.0% -77.5% +23.4% +13.2% +36.4% -14.3% -11.4% -16.1% -16.1% -15.4% +23.8% -11.6% +7.6% +19.1% +27.1% -2.1%
Cape TCs Remain Over $10,000/Day

n easing of rates across all bulker sizes led the Baltic Exchange below 1,000 points on 12 August for the first time in seven weeks. Nonetheless, this still represents a significant improvement on the depressed year-ago level of 764 points, thanks in most part to Capesize 4TCs averaging more than $10,000/day (the Cape average had dipped below $4,000/day at this point in 2012). At time of writing the spot physical market had regained some upward momentum, while on the paper market, the 4q13 was trading around $19,000/day, having been priced at $14,250/day just one month previously. Official data for July confirm an increase in iron ore exports from Brazil to a year-to-date high of 29.7 Mt, which contributed to the June/July rally in Cape spot rates. With Chinese imports advancing to a monthly all-time high of 73.1 Mt in July and the delivered spot price of iron ore climbing above $140/t from $110/t in June, this gives a good indication of the strength of Chinese demand. The contrast in steel production levels
Baltic Exchange Dry Index

12,500
10,500
8,500
Index
6,500
4,500
2,500
500
Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13
SSY Capesize Indices

47,000
New Atlantic New Pacific
42,000 37,000 32,000

INDEX
27,000 22,000 17,000 12,000 7,000 2,000

Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13
SSY Consultancy & Research Ltd
-2-
August 2013
Dry Bulk Market

between China and the rest of the world remain stark. Chinas mills produced 65.5 Mt of crude steel in July, registering an annual increase for the eleventh month in succession. Steel production in the rest of the world on the other hand experienced annual declines in the 13 months to June (the last available data point). The weakness in European steel demand is analysed on page 6. The fall in Cape earnings had been Atlantic-led, with ongoing industrial action by Colombian mine and port workers serving as a negative for freight rates. The Panamax market has lost ground in recent weeks, with the TC average edging lower to $7,428/day, a drop of almost $2,000/day from 19 July, with the largest declines seen in the Atlantic. The positive impact from the record South American grain season may finally be on the wane. SSY estimates that the number of Pananaxes waiting to load grain has been around 90 for the last two weeks, having numbered 100+ for the previous 17 weeks. In recent weeks the steadiest of the four dry bulk carrier sizes monitored by the Baltic Exchange has been the Supramaxes, where the 6 TC average has hovered around $9,500/day for three weeks. While there has been increased port congestion involving geared vessels either discharging fertilizers or loading cargoes such as grain, sugar or forest products in Brazil, the main positive gain for Supra earnings has been on the S1B route from Canakkale to FE Asia, which has jumped 28% in the last three weeks to $17,620/day. This has been driven by Black Sea grain movements (page 8). Handysize average earnings have slipped to $7,548/day, the lowest since mid-March, with pronounced falls on routes from South America and the US Gulf. August 2013
Average of the 4 Timecharter Routes
250,000
Handymax (45,000 dwt) Panamax (74,000 dwt)
200,000
Capesize (172,000 dwt)
150,000
$/Day
100,000
50,000
0
Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
Coal Freight Rates

60 50 40
$/TON
Coal 140,000 RB/Rotterdam
30 20 10 0
Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
Jan-12
12 Month Time-Charter Rates

180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000
$/DAY
25/32,000 70/75,000 40/47,000 170,000
100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0

Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-13
-3-
Jan-13
Coal
US Exports Under Pressure
longside the grain effect from this years record South American grain export season, shipments of US coal have played a major role in shaping demand for Panamaxes during 2013. The peaks in coal shipments in March 2013 (see chart, right) coincided with a firmer phase in the Panamax market. The 4 TCs leapt from $5,100/day in early February to nearly $9,700/day in late March, but by early June the TCs dipped as low as $6,000/day as US coal exports slowed. The spike in steam coal exports in March was largely a consequence of various stoppages in Colombia in February (a mixture of strike action and legislation interrupting some rail and port activities). In addition to the lower 2q for seaborne steam coal volumes, US coking coal exports in June dropped to a 9-month low of 3.8 Mt (excluding cargoes to Canada), which compares with a year-to-date average of 5.0 Mt. As a result overall seaborne exports in the 1h13 were almost 30 Mt, down by around 2.5 Mt on the 1h12. However, the annualised number is still comparable with the heights of the last 1980s/early 1990s (see chart below).
US Coal Exports: Recent Perspective

13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000
'000 tonnes
Steam coal Coking coal
8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0

Feb-12 Mar-12 Feb-13 Aug-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Oct-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jan-12 Apr-13 Jul-12 May-13 Jun-12 Jan-13 Jun-13
There were especially severe year-on-year falls into China and India in the 1h13 with Junes total shipments to Far East Asia of 2.2 Mt the lowest this year and down from 4.0 Mt in March. Despite this years downward trend, County Coal has recently confirmed that it is continuing to develop plans to build a 10+ Mtpa brownfield export terminal capable of loading Panamaxes up to 60,000 dwt on the US West Coast to enable coal to be shipped to Asia. This is addition to the companys plans for a 20+ Mtpa Capesize coal terminal on the Canadian West Coast. By contrast, Kinder Morgan
announced in May that it was no longer planning to construct a coal export facility at Port Westward on the Columbia River (with a targeted annual throughput of 22 million short tons by 2022) in the face of local opposition on environmental grounds. However, the companys commercial director was reported by McCloskey as having interest in constructing a coal terminal somewhere on the US West Coast. Three other west coast projects are still at consultation stage. These include Ambre Energys Morrow Pacific project, which has a first stage capacity of 3.5 Mtpa then 8 Mtpa in the second stage. A proposal from Millennium Bulk Terminals Longview (jointly owned by Ambre Energy and Arch Coal) involves converting an alumina import facility at Longview on the Columbia River into a coal export terminal. MBTL aims to commence operations in 2015 and reach 44 Mtpa capacity by 2018. SSA Marine subsidiary Pacific International Terminals has proposed a new facility at Cherry Point eventually handling up to 48 Mtpa of coal. A draft environmental impact statement is being prepared, with public consultation to follow in 2014/15.
US Coal Exports: Long-Term Perspective

65 60 55 50 45
million tonnes
Steam coal Coking coal
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2013a 2010 2011 2012
-4-
August 2013
Coal
Seaborne Coal Trade
Coal Exports USA: (ex. Canada) Canada: (ex. USA) Australia: Mt Coking Thermal Total Coking Thermal Total Coking Thermal Total Coking Thermal Total Coking Thermal Total Thermal Thermal Coking Thermal Total Coking Thermal Total Coking Thermal Total Coal Im ports Japan Mt Coking Thermal Anthracite Total Coking Thermal Total Coking Thermal Anthracite Total Coking Thermal Total Coking Thermal Total Coking Thermal Total Thermal Coking Thermal Total Coking Thermal Total * Based on exporter data to India 1990 53.6 28.3 81.9 25.9 3.9 29.8 57.1 49.5 106.6 3.6 46.0 49.6 8.9 6.5 15.4 13.7 4.4 4.0 13.7 17.7 11.1 12.9 23.9 164.1 178.8 342.9 1990 74.1 31.4 2.0 107.5 56.6 83.3 139.9 11.3 11.6 1.1 23.9 4.6 14.8 19.4 0.9 1.1 2.0 5.4 0.1 5.5 2.4 11.3 31.0 42.3 164.1 178.8 342.9 1995 43.2 28.2 71.4 26.6 5.4 32.0 74.6 62.1 136.7 6.2 55.6 61.7 4.9 13.1 18.0 18.7 31.3 4.6 24.1 28.6 10.4 12.2 22.6 170.5 250.6 421.1 1995 73.4 49.6 2.8 125.8 49.8 99.6 149.4 17.2 26.0 0.7 43.8 5.3 23.9 29.2 0.4 1.3 1.7 9.9 2.1 12.0 6.5 14.5 38.1 52.7 170.5 250.6 421.1 2000 26.3 9.6 35.9 26.3 3.5 29.8 99.6 87.1 186.8 2.1 68.1 70.2 3.0 15.3 18.3 34.0 57.1 6.5 48.6 55.1 16.0 20.5 36.5 179.8 343.8 523.6 2000 75.2 66.4 3.7 145.3 51.4 121.4 172.8 19.6 42.3 2.0 63.9 7.3 38.1 45.3 0.5 1.6 2.1 11.2 12.5 23.7 11.2 14.6 44.6 59.2 179.8 343.8 523.6 2005 22.0 5.4 27.4 25.1 1.1 26.2 122.0 111.7 233.7 1.0 70.0 71.0 1.4 13.6 15.0 54.6 128.7 5.3 66.4 71.7 24.5 59.6 84.1 201.3 511.1 712.4 2005 78.7 96.1 5.9 180.7 52.2 161.2 213.4 16.2 56.1 4.5 76.8 9.8 51.3 61.1 7.2 18.9 26.1 19.7 24.5 44.2 27.6 17.5 65.0 82.5 201.3 511.1 712.4 2009 31.5 13.0 44.5 21.0 5.8 26.8 135.0 139.6 274.6 0.5 62.1 62.6 0.5 5.2 5.7 63.4 233.5 0.6 21.7 22.3 26.4 86.2 112.6 215.5 630.5 846.0 2009 65.6 92.0 4.2 161.8 36.5 140.6 177.1 16.0 80.5 6.5 103.0 9.4 49.2 58.6 34.5 92.1 126.6 29.0 58.3 87.3 21.5 24.5 85.6 110.1 215.5 630.5 846.0 2010 47.8 15.6 63.4 25.7 5.5 31.2 158.9 142.1 301.0 0.6 68.2 68.8 0.1 7.1 7.2 69.2 290.6 1.1 17.8 18.9 32.8 72.6 105.4 267.0 688.7 955.7 2010 76.6 101.7 6.2 184.5 55.1 118.8 173.9 23.4 87.8 7.4 118.6 10.2 53.2 63.4 47.3 119.0 166.3 35.3 74.5 109.8 17.7 19.1 102.4 121.5 267.0 688.7 955.7 2011 59.3 31.5 90.8 26.4 5.7 32.1 132.9 148.2 281.1 0.8 67.6 68.4 0.0 3.8 3.8 76.1 323.3 3.6 10.9 14.5 30.2 97.3 127.5 253.2 764.4 1017.6 2011 68.7 101.2 5.4 175.3 58.2 144.5 202.7 25.9 94.4 8.8 129.1 10.7 56.0 66.7 44.7 138.4 183.1 33.0 92.7 125.7 11.9 12.0 111.1 123.1 253.2 764.4 1017.6 2012 59.0 48.1 107.1 29.8 3.9 33.7 144.9 171.2 316.1 0.8 76.6 77.4 0.2 3.9 4.1 79.7 347.1 1.3 7.8 9.1 36.7 101.9 138.6 272.7 840.2 1112.9 2012 70.5 107.7 6.0 184.2 53.8 161.8 215.6 25.7 91.1 7.8 124.6 10.5 55.2 65.7 53.6 181.5 235.1 35.5 123.4 158.9 8.3 23.1 97.4 120.5 272.7 840.2 1112.9 2013 59.9 45.8 105.7 32.7 3.6 36.3 159.2 176.8 336.0 0.3 71.0 71.3 0.1 4.6 4.7 71.2 380.6 1.2 6.1 7.3 37.3 115.2 152.5 290.7 874.9 Annlsd
[Jun]
[Jun]
[Jun]
South Africa:
[May]
Poland:
Colom bia Indonesia PR China
[SSY] [Jun] [SSY]
[Jun]
Other Exporters
Total Seaborne
1165.6 [SSY] 2013 76.9 101.5 5.2 183.6 53.7 158.2 211.9 25.3 92.3 8.0 125.6 10.8 56.4 67.2 70.7 186.3 257.0 37.5 143.3 180.8 7.6 15.8 116.1 131.9 290.7 874.9 Annlsd Jan to:
[Jun]
Europe
[SSY]
South Korea
[Jun]
Taiw an
[Jul]
China
[Jun]
India*
USA Other Im porters
[SSY] [Jun]
Total Seaborne
1165.6 [SSY]
August 2013
-5-
Steel/Iron Ore
Protracted Decline in EU Markets
ith growth in the EU stagnating and steel product prices continuing to fall, the regions crude steel output endured further decline in the 1h13. According to the latest data from the World Steel Association, total EU-15 output in Jan-June of 71.8 Mt was down 3.9% year-on-year. Indeed, monthly production within the EU -15 has not seen an annual increase since September 2011 (see chart below). Furthermore, regional steel prices continue to exert negative pressure. For example, WSDs SteelBenchmarker at the end of July showed that HRB prices within the EU of $588/t were their lowest since August 2012 and down by 11% from their year to date high in late January. Without a revival in domestic demand fundamentals, EU production is unlikely to see positive growth resume as the region is already a significant net exporter of steel products. Yet the latest short term outlook published by the European Steel Association (Eurofer) offers little prospect for a rapid improvement in EU markets.
EU-15 Iron Ore Imports
150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0
Million tonnes
Source: UNCTAD, SSY
110.0 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0

2013(f) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Although modest positive growth is expected to resume in the 4q13, this will not prevent total apparent steel consumption in 2013 from being down 3.1% on 2012 at 137 Mt (which would be the second lowest annual total, after 2009, since 1996). All of the major steel using sectors continue to be impacted by recession with EU automobile production predicted by Eurofer to drop 4% this year, while construction activity is forecast to decrease by around 3.5%. Only Germany, Austria, Sweden and Hungary are expected to record slight growth in construction. Eurofer is predicting positive growth in EU-15 apparent steel
consumption for 2014 at 1.8%. This is chiefly based on a lowlevel stabilisation of construction activity and an upturn in key industrial sectors, such as mechanical engineering, as slowly improving economic and financial conditions boost investment growth. However, at 140 Mt, projected apparent steel demand next year would still be below the corresponding 2012 level and some 30% lower than the record 2007 total. The implication, therefore, is that 2014 will be another weak year for EU steel production and iron ore imports. As the chart above shows, EU-15 imports are expected to be close to 100 Mt for a second consecutive year in 2013, which compares with the 140 Mt imported in 2007. The prospect for continued subdued levels of activity on transatlantic iron ore trades from Brazil over the next 12-16 months does, however, increase the upside potential for fronthaul cargo movements to Asia. This is reinforced in the short term by seasonal patterns (with recent years seeing sharp rises in Brazils exports in the 3q and 4q) and, more fundamentally, by the introduction of new mining and export capacity (led by Vales 40 Mtpa expansion at Carajas).
EU-15 Steel Production

17,000
Source: World Steel Association

15,000
13,000
'000 tonnes
11,000
9,000
7,000
5,000
Jan 07 Mar 07 May 07 Jul 07 Sep 07 Nov 07 Jan 08 Mar 08 May 08 Jul 08 Sep 08 Nov 08 Jan 09 Mar 09 May 09 Jul 09 Sep 09 Nov 09 Jan 10 Mar 10 May 10 Jul 10 Sep 10 Nov 10 Jan 11 Mar 11 May 11 Jul 11 Sep 11 Nov 11 Jan 12 Mar 12 May 12 Jul 12 Sep 12 Nov 12 Jan 13 Mar 13 May 13
-6-
August 2013
Steel/Iron Ore
Million Tonnes Iron Ore Exports Australia Brazil Canada India S.Africa FSU Other Total Iron Ore Im ports EU15 Other W.Europe E.Europe Europe (E+W) Japan South Korea Taiw an China Other Asia Other Total Steel Production Austria Belgium France Germany Italy Netherlands Spain Sw eden United Kingdom Other EU EU15 Total Turkey Other Europe TOTAL EUROPE Canada United States N. AMERICA Brazil Mexico Other L&S America L&S AMERICA Japan Australia South Africa India Rep of Korea Taiw an Czech+Slovakia Poland Romania CIS China N.Korea Other WORLD 1985 88.0 92.3 32.3 28.8 10.2 43.9 80.3 375.8 1985 133.9 1.7 58.8 194.4 124.5 13.2 4.9 10.0 3.8 26.7 377.5 1985 4.7 10.7 18.8 40.5 23.9 5.5 14.2 4.8 15.7 8.8 147.6 4.9 6.4 158.9 14.6 80.1 94.7 20.5 7.4 7.9 35.8 105.3 6.6 8.5 11.9 13.5 5.2 15.0 16.1 13.8 154.7 46.8 6.5 25.5 718.9 1990 100.0 114.3 27.0 31.6 17.0 38.6 68.6 397.1 1990 140.4 2.0 47.7 190.1 125.3 22.6 7.8 14.3 5.7 33.5 399.3 1990 4.3 11.5 19.0 38.4 25.5 5.4 12.9 4.5 17.8 9.1 148.4 9.4 5.1 162.9 12.3 89.7 102.0 20.6 8.7 9.2 38.5 110.3 6.7 8.6 15.0 23.1 9.7 14.9 13.6 9.8 154.4 66.3 7.0 27.5 770.5 1995 137.1 131.4 28.7 32.3 21.8 30.0 64.5 445.8 1995 143.3 3.4 35.2 181.9 120.4 35.1 9.2 41.2 7.7 43.7 439.2 1995 5.0 11.6 18.1 42.1 27.8 6.4 13.8 5.0 17.6 8.5 155.8 13.2 1.9 170.9 14.4 95.2 109.6 25.1 12.1 10.3 47.5 101.6 8.5 8.7 22.0 36.8 11.6 11.2 11.9 6.6 79.1 95.4 0.6 30.4 752.3 2000 165.2 160.1 26.5 34.9 21.4 27.4 55.9 491.4 2000 138.7 4.1 30.0 172.8 131.7 39.0 14.9 70.0 9.1 47.9 485.4 2000 5.7 11.6 21.0 46.4 26.8 5.7 15.9 5.2 15.2 10.0 163.4 14.3 3.2 180.9 16.6 101.8 118.4 27.9 15.6 12.2 55.7 106.4 7.1 8.5 26.9 43.1 16.9 9.9 10.5 4.7 98.5 128.5 0.3 32.5 848.9 2005 250.8 223.4 27.9 80.9 26.6 35.6 69.9 715.1 2005 133.5 4.6 31.9 170.0 132.3 43.5 14.6 275.2 6.9 63.8 706.3 2005 7.0 10.4 19.5 44.5 29.4 6.9 17.9 5.7 13.3 9.2 163.8 21.0 9.7 194.5 15.3 93.2 108.6 31.6 16.2 15.1 62.9 112.5 7.8 9.5 40.9 47.8 18.6 10.7 8.4 6.2 113.3 353.6 0.3 51.0 1,146.5 2010 422.6 310.9 32.6 95.9 48.0 57.6 109.3 1,076.9 2010 112.2 6.8 22.1 141.1 134.3 56.3 18.9 618.6 8.6 53.4 1,031.2 2010 7.2 8.0 15.4 43.8 25.8 6.7 16.3 4.8 9.8 8.4 146.2 29.1 6.9 182.2 13.0 80.5 93.5 32.9 16.7 12.1 61.8 109.6 7.3 7.6 68.3 58.6 19.8 9.8 8.0 3.7 108.3 623.8 0.3 69.2 1,431.7 2011 458.9 330.8 30.2 78.8 53.3 58.1 126.2 1,136.3 2011 109.8 6.6 22.5 138.9 128.4 64.9 20.5 686.8 9.6 50.3 1,099.4 2011 7.5 8.1 15.8 44.3 28.7 6.9 15.5 4.9 9.5 8.4 149.7 34.1 7.7 191.4 13.0 86.4 99.4 35.2 18.1 14.6 67.9 107.6 6.4 7.5 73.6 68.5 21.2 9.8 8.8 3.8 112.7 684.4 0.3 72.8 1,536.2 2012 518.1 326.5 34.5 35.0 54.0 58.0 139.8 1,165.9 2012 100.3 7.8 21.0 129.1 130.2 66.0 18.5 743.6 8.5 46.2 1,142.1 2012 7.4 7.3 15.6 42.7 27.3 6.9 13.6 4.3 9.6 7.2 141.9 35.9 6.7 184.5 13.5 88.7 102.2 34.5 18.1 13.2 65.8 107.2 4.9 6.9 77.6 69.1 20.7 9.5 8.4 3.6 111.0 713.9 0.3 61.3 1,546.8 2013 Annlsd 567.5 298.7 36.5 13.0 54.4 60.0 155.0 1,185.1 [Jun] [Jul] [SSY] [SSY] [Apr] [SSY] [Diff] [SSY]
2013 Annlsd 103.8 [SSY] 8.2 [SSY] 21.6 [SSY] 133.6 [SSY] 134.5 [May] 59.8 [May] 20.4 [SSY] 784.6 [Jul] 8.7 [SSY] 70.9 [SSY] 1,212.5 [SSY] 2013 Annlsd 7.9 -0.7% 7.0 -10.1% 16.1 -1.1% 43.4 -3.7% 25.4 -5.1% 6.2 -0.8% 15.1 -12.0% 4.6 -11.1% 11.4 1.3% 6.4 -14.5% 143.5 -5.2% 34.8 5.2% 8.3 -13.3% 186.6 -3.6% 12.6 4.2% 86.5 2.7% 99.1 2.9% 33.9 -2.0% 17.9 0.0% 12.4 -9.6% 64.2 -3.1% 109.4 -0.3% 4.7 -23.6% 6.7 -8.1% 79.3 5.4% 66.1 0.8% 23.1 -2.6% 9.9 -3.5% 7.9 -4.7% 4.0 -5.0% 110.2 -1.5% 778.2 4.3% 0.3 0.0% 52.3 -15.9% 1,602.0 0.7%
November 2012
-7-
Grain
Black Sea Grains in Season
unning counter to virtually every other component route of the BSI, the Supramax Canakkale trip to the Far East has seen a marked rise over the past month, lifting earnings by more than $4,000/day to an 12month high of $17,600/day. Such relative strength in spot earnings has coincided with the onset of a seasonal upswing in grain exports from Russia and, especially, the Ukraine where record volumes are anticipated. In its latest (August) forecast update, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has further raised its expectations for wheat and coarse grain exports from the Ukraine. Projected wheat exports of 10 Mt in the July 2013 -June 2014 trade year are up 2 Mt on the previous forecast and 2.8 Mt on the estimated 2012-13 total, while forecast coarse grain volumes in Oct 2013-Sep 2014 have been lifted by 1.5 Mt to 20.2 Mt, which would be up by more than 4 Mt on the estimated 2012-13 level. After allowing for forecast volumes from Russia (of 17.0 Mt) and Kazakhstan (of 9.0 Mt), both of which are expected to be
7.0
Quarterly Grain Exports From Russia & Ukraine

15.0 14.0 13.0 12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 Source: IGC & SSY
Mt
8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0

3q13F 2q13E 4q13F 1q09 2q09 3q09 4q09 1q10 2q10 3q10 4q10 1q11 2q11 3q11 4q11 1q12 2q12 3q12 4q12 1q13
significantly higher than in 201213 (by 5.7 Mt and 2 Mt), then the USDA are predicting that former Soviet Union countries at 36 Mt will collectively be a larger wheat exporter than the US (30 Mt) in 2013-14. In the case of coarse grains, the latest USDA forecast is for a year-on-year increase of 1.5 Mt from Russia to 5.9 Mt. Given the typical seasonal distribution of grain exports from Russia and Ukraine, the revised annual forecasts imply that new quarterly peaks could be set for their combined shipments in the 3q and 4q13. As shown in the chart above, SSY are now predicting that combined exports
30,000
from the two countries will more than double between the 2q and 3q13, which helps account for the steepness of the recent climb in regional Supramax rates. The seasonal acceleration in the Black Sea trades also provides an important source of grainrelated employment for dry bulk carriers between the passing of the 2q highs for Latin American shipments (which have been confirmed as an all-time record) and the arrival of peak US exports in the 4q. Latest forecasts from the USDA do show some moderation in the outlook for US coarse grain and soya exports in 2013-14 with downward revisions totalling 2.8 Mt. Nevertheless, with offsetting upward revisions for other key exporting countries and a general raising of expectations for world wheat trade, SSY are predicting that the 4q13 will see a new record for global seaborne grain exports. This is, of course, dependent on sufficient levels of world import demand and, significantly, this month has seen another increase in USDA projections for Chinese wheat and coarse grain imports in 2013-14 (by 1 Mt to 9.5 Mt and 0.2 Mt to 9.7 Mt, respectively).
Russia & Ukraine Grain Exports Vs Supramax Rates
6.0 Estimated 5.0
26,000
22,000
Million tonnes
4.0 18,000 3.0 14,000 2.0
1.0
10,000
Grain Exports Turkey-Far East Supra Rate (monthly avg)

0.0
Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13
6,000
-8-
$/Day
August 2013
Grain
World Grain Trade
06/07 Exporters: USA: Wheat Coarse Grain Total Canada: Wheat Coarse Grain Total Australia: Wheat Coarse Grain Total Argentina: Wheat Coarse Grain Total EU: Wheat Coarse Grain Total Russia: Wheat Coarse Grain Total Others: Wheat Coarse Grain Total World: Wheat Coarse Grain Total 25.0 60.0 85.0 19.4 3.6 23.0 11.4 2.6 14.0 11.9 14.3 26.2 12.8 4.4 17.2 10.9 1.7 12.6 19.4 24.3 43.7 110.8 110.9 221.7 07/08 34.3 70.3 104.6 16.4 6.2 22.6 7.5 3.8 11.3 10.0 16.9 26.9 11.2 4.4 15.6 12.1 1.3 13.4 18.8 26.2 45.0 110.3 129.1 239.4 08/09 27.3 50.4 77.7 18.3 3.9 22.2 13.5 4.9 18.4 8.5 13.8 22.3 24.5 5.5 30.0 18.3 4.8 23.1 26.4 29.4 55.8 136.8 112.7 249.5 08/09 4.9 18.9 23.8 0.5 1.5 2.0 3.3 6.9 10.2 1.1 4.4 5.5 9.2 5.1 14.3 6.3 2.6 8.9 9.8 5.2 15.0 8.9 5.8 14.7 6.3 1.3 7.6 86.5 61.0 147.5 09/10 24.2 55.2 79.4 18.3 3.1 21.4 13.7 4.3 18.0 5.1 14.9 20.0 20.8 2.8 23.6 18.8 3.2 22.0 27.2 28.8 56.0 128.1 112.3 240.4 09/10 5.5 19.9 25.4 1.4 2.6 4.0 4.4 7.8 12.2 1.2 4.6 5.8 6.6 3.3 9.9 5.1 2.4 7.5 10.2 5.4 15.6 3.0 4.6 7.6 6.7 1.3 8.0 84.0 60.4 144.4 10/11 35.7 52.0 87.7 16.3 4.9 21.0 18.5 4.7 23.2 7.6 18.5 26.1 22.1 6.0 28.1 4.0 0.3 4.3 21.5 30.6 52.1 125.7 117.0 242.7 10/11 6.0 18.7 24.7 1.0 3.8 4.8 4.9 7.6 12.5 1.3 4.4 5.7 6.1 9.4 15.5 6.4 2.8 9.2 10.4 5.9 16.3 0.1 4.1 4.2 6.6 0.7 7.3 82.9 59.6 142.5 11/12 27.9 44.7 72.6 18.2 3.5 21.7 23.1 7.1 30.2 11.3 20.2 31.5 15.6 6.3 21.9 21.6 5.6 27.2 27.1 37.4 64.5 144.8 124.8 269.6 11/12 5.8 17.2 23.0 3.0 7.1 10.1 5.1 7.2 12.3 1.4 4.5 5.9 8.7 7.5 16.2 6.3 3.4 9.7 11.6 6.8 18.4 2.4 4.9 7.3 6.8 1.2 8.0 93.7 65.0 158.7 12/13 27.6 22.9 50.5 19.0 4.5 23.5 21.5 5.8 27.3 7.0 25.4 32.4 22.0 6.6 28.6 11.2 4.3 15.5 31.8 55.9 87.7 140.1 125.4 265.5 12/13 6.2 18.0 24.2 3.5 6.0 9.5 5.6 8.1 13.7 1.4 4.3 5.7 6.9 12.4 19.3 6.2 2.9 9.1 8.5 5.2 13.7 5.3 5.7 11.0 7.5 1.0 8.5 89.0 61.8 150.8 13/14 29.5 31.7 61.2 19.2 3.9 23.1 19.7 5.0 24.7 5.5 24.9 30.4 23.0 5.9 28.9 14.5 4.7 19.2 27.7 51.5 79.2 139.1 127.6 266.7 13/14 5.8 18.2 24.0 7.0 9.8 16.8 4.8 8.2 13.0 1.4 4.4 5.8 5.9 8.7 14.6 6.3 3.4 9.7 9.0 5.3 14.3 3.5 5.1 8.6 6.8 0.8 7.6 88.6 63.7 152.3 Diff +1.9 +8.8 +10.7 +0.2 -0.6 -0.4 -1.8 -0.8 -2.6 -1.5 -0.5 -2.0 +1.0 -0.7 +0.3 +3.3 +0.4 +3.7 -4.1 -4.4 -8.5 -1.0 +2.2 +1.2 Diff -0.4 +0.2 -0.2 +3.5 +3.8 +7.3 -0.8 +0.1 -0.7 +0.0 +0.1 +0.1 -1.0 -3.7 -4.7 +0.1 +0.5 +0.6 +0.5 +0.1 +0.6 -1.8 -0.6 -2.4 -0.7 -0.2 -0.9 -0.4 +1.9 +1.5
06/07 07/08 Im porters 5.6 5.7 Japan: Wheat Coarse Grain 19.1 17.7 Total 24.7 23.4 0.4 0.2 PR China: Wheat Coarse Grain 1.4 1.2 Total 1.8 1.4 3.2 3.0 S.Korea: Wheat Coarse Grain 8.7 9.3 Total 11.9 12.3 1.1 1.3 Taiw an: Wheat Coarse Grain 4.2 5.0 Total 5.3 6.3 6.3 7.9 EU: Wheat Coarse Grain 7.4 22.4 Total 13.7 30.3 4.9 5.8 Algeria: Wheat Coarse Grain 2.6 1.9 Total 7.5 7.7 7.1 7.6 Egypt: Wheat Coarse Grain 4.8 4.4 Total 11.9 12.0 0.3 0.1 Iran: Wheat Coarse Grain 3.1 3.1 Total 3.4 3.2 7.9 7.1 Brazil: Wheat Coarse Grain 1.5 1.6 Total 9.4 8.7 74.0 71.6 Others: Wheat Coarse Grain 58.1 62.5 Total 132.1 134.1 Source: IGC July to June - million tonnes.
July 2013
-9-
Fleet Developments
China Unveils New Shipyard Policy
hina has revealed plans for a radical restructuring of its shipbuilding sector in the next 3 years. A new strategy unveiled by the State Council at end-July seeks to address excess yard capacity and the over-reliance of PRC-based yards on orders for less sophisticated vessel types. The new policy recognises that the countrys shipbuilders face lower demand than in the boom years before global recession set in late in 2008 and that contract prices have fallen steeply from levels prevailing at that time. The State Council calls on local governments to veto applications to add to existing yard capacity. It also calls on them to promote innovation and initiatives to win higher-value orders (e.g. for offshore vessels), and to provide more financial support to yards. Rationalisation of existing capacity is also to be achieved by measures facilitating mergers and greater pooling of resources (e.g. shared research or design programmes). Yet it is unclear how these objectives are to be attained and the strategy has already been criticised in China for its failure to specify more explicitly how these goals can be achieved. According to the State Council, one of the main problems that the Chinese shipbuilding sector faces is its over-emphasis on constructing relatively low-value tonnage. Accordingly, the new policy calls on yards to target orders for offshore vessels and eco-type ships. Yet this may be difficult to achieve, given the lack of experience that many yards have in building sophisticated ship types. Analysis of Chinas recent vessel completions shows that these have been dominated by construction of bulk carriers. So far in 2013, PRC-based yards have built 19.9mdwt, or 11.1 SSY Consultancy & Research Ltd
China: Ship Completions by Vessel Type, 2013 to date
Passenger/Ferry Ro-ro Miscellaneous
main vessel type
Figures as at August 2013 SOURCE: IHS-Fairplay
Offshore Dry Cargo Container Tanker Bulker 0 2 4 6 million gross tons 8 10 12
China: Ships on Order by Vessel Type

Reefer Passenger/Ferry Miscellaneous
main vessel type
Figures as at August 2013 SOURCE: IHS-Fairplay
Ro-ro Dry Cargo Offshore Container Tanker Bulker 0 5 10 15 20 million gross tons 25 30 35
million gross tons (mgt) of such vessels, these equating in gross tonnage terms to 65.5% of total completions. By comparison, 5.3 mdwt (2.9mgt) of tankers were delivered in the same period, yet of these only 0.1mdwt comprised carriers of chemicals or liquefied gases. With 0.18 million TEU of container ships also completed, these 3 main ship types have together accounted in gt terms for 93.8% of the tonnage built by Chinese yards so far this year. In contrast to the above, offshore vessel completions have totalled 0.19mgt in 2013 to date, thereby representing just 1.1% of gross tonnage built in China so far this - 10 -
year. Nor is there much prospect of this situation changing greatly in the short term, given Chinese yards current orderbooks. As seen in the lower graph, bulkers continue to dominate what is due to be built in the next few years, with 60.0mdwt (33.4mgt) of such ships now on order. In contrast, at a total 2.43mgt, offshore units equate in gross tonnage terms to just 3.8% of Chinas collective orderbook. Meanwhile, contracts for liquefied gas carriers and chemical tankers amount to only 1.96mgt, thereby accounting for just 3.0% of tonnage currently on order at Chinese yards.
August 2013
Economy
Chinas Investment Picture By Sector
Chinese Fixed Asset Investment: Annual Change By Industry
35 Jan-July 2012 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Jan-July 2013
n recent months there has been a multitude of developments in the Chinese economy earning media attention, such as confusion over government GDP growth targets, Junes so-called Shibor shock (when interbank borrowing rates briefly shot up to record levels) and the ensuing short-lived drop in the Shanghai Composite Index. These have been accompanied by scrutiny of the various monthly Purchasing Managers Indices throughout 2013. Fixed asset investment (FAI) also deserves mention. At face value, this years growth rate has shown very little change in tempo compared with 2012: in the first seven months of both years spending on physical assets grew by fractionally over 20% (see chart right). However, a breakdown of capital spending by sector provides more insight. According to estimates quoted by the International Monetary Fund, manufacturing accounts for an estimated 34% of Chinas FAI. Investment growth in secondary industry, the countrys manufacturing sector,
annual change (%)
FAI
Primary industry Secondary industry Tertiary industry
Real estate
slowed to 16% in Jan-July from 23% in the same period last year. Indications from the HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index this year have been disappointing at times, with the index slipping to an 11month low in July. Moreover, in a bid to tackle oversupply in key industrial sectors, such as shipbuilding, the government is seeking to deter investment. A three-year plan drafted by the State Council aims to restructure Chinas shipbuilding sector by ceasing approvals for new facilities as well as calling for lending to companies building new facilities to be stopped. Yards wishing to restructure,
merge or acquire other companies are encouraged to raise funds by issuing corporate bonds. Arguably the next most influential FAI component is real estate (which makes up an estimated 25% of all FAI). Accelerating growth in real estate capital spending in JanJuly to 21% from 15% in the same period last year is positive for raw material demand. The second chart (below) contrasts growth rates for project -related activities. Oil and gas extraction has experienced a massive jump in spending: up 26% in the first seven months of 2013 in complete contrast to the 5% recorded in the 1h12. Finally, it is worth remembering that Chinas annual GDP growth target has been exceeded every year since 1998 (the year of the Asian financial crisis). This years target of 7.5% was set by the National Peoples Congress in March, although Finance Minister Lou Jiwei caused interest in June when he briefed the US media that the governments GDP growth target for 2013 was 7% (a statement later amended in official reports). Growth reached 7.7% in the 1q13 followed by 7.5% in the 2q. SSY Consultancy & Research Ltd
Chinese Fixed Asset Investment: Annual Change By Projects

30 Jan-July 2012 25 Jan-July 2013
annual change (%)
20
15
10
0
FAI Projects underway New projects Oil & gas extraction Ferrous metal mining
August 2013
- 11 -
Oil Markets
Energy East alters crude tanker trade
1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4
Source: Argus, EIA, Bloomberg
Reported Spot Tanker Fixtures by Month of Fixing, million MT WAFR UKC MEG MED ECC CARIB BSEA BALTC
EC Canada Crude Imports by Source
ransCanada intends to proceed with its Energy East pipeline that will transport western Canadian tar sands crude to the countrys east coast refineries. Such was the shipper interest in the project, that the lines proposed capacity has been lifted from 850 kb/d to 1.1 mb/d. This would be more than sufficient to meet the needs of the EC Canada refineries served by the pipeline, something that has prompted TransCanada to extend the line to Canaport in Saint John, New Brunswick where, in tandem with Irving, it will construct a deep-water marine terminal. This will allow crude shipped along Energy East to be exported on the largest crude tankers. Pending regulatory approval, the line is scheduled to begin deliveries to refineries in 2017, with shipments to Canaport set to start in 2018. Around the same time as it revealed these plans, TransCanada pushed back the expected start date of the 830 kb/d Alberta - US Midwest portion of its Keystone XL pipeline to 2016 at the earliest as it continues its long wait for US government approval for the project. Meanwhile, nascent pipeline projects from Enbridge and Kinder Morgan to deliver oil sands to Canadas Pacific coast continue to face strong opposition from environmental and indigenous groups. Persistent doubts as to the viability of these projects has no doubt led TransCanada to look to the East Coast as another way to bring rising crude output from Canadas tar sands to domestic and international markets. Opposition exists to Energy East and it will require regulatory approval, but these hurdles are
Source: SSY
Source: SSY
Source: Argus
Source: Various Source: Argus
0.2 0.0 Source: Argus, SSY Jan-11 Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
deemed to be more easily surmountable than those facing Keystone XL and West Coast projects. Much of the proposed line is already in place in the form of an existing, largely redundant, gas pipeline that TransCanada intends to convert. If indeed Energy East is brought to fruition, it is likely to have a significant impact on crude tanker trade. The first stage of the project taking crude to Canadas eastern refineries is likely to reduce the regions crude imports, which in 1q13 averaged just short of 750 kb/d, according to National Energy Board data. Analysis of reported spot fixtures show that so far this year, seaborne crude shipments to EC Canada were sourced from the Mid East Gulf (3.64 million MT), West Africa (0.78), the North Sea (0.27) and the Caribbean (0.21). The displacement of these volumes by domestic crude supply is likely to reduce demand across the crude tanker sectors, but impacting most upon westbound VLCC demand from the Mid East. However, this negative impact on crude tanker demand could be offset when the second stage of the project comes online. Crude exported from the new terminal at Canaport is likely to appeal to US Gulf refiners with their predominantly heavy crude - 12 -
slates, particularly if overland access to Canadian crude has been limited by further delays to or the cancellation of the crossborder portion of the Keystone XL pipeline. This would provide employment for crude tankers all the way up to VLCCs. If Keystone XL is built and results in limited US Gulf demand for seaborne shipments from EC Canada, analysts predict that the crude exported from Canaport would attract Indian refiners with their increasing thirst for heavy crude. This could provide a source of long-haul demand for larger crude tankers, similar to that derived from Indias increased purchases of Caribbean crude. In fact, shipments of Caribbean and Latin American crude to Asia could themselves rise as a result of Energy East. Canadian competition for US Gulf custom could prompt Venezuela and other crude exporters in the Caribbean and Latin America to increase their sales to Asian refiners. This would add to longhaul, tonne-mile rich voyages for large crude-tankers. If it is US Gulf imports of Mid East crude that are displaced by Energy Easts heavy Canadian crude, then again it is likely to be westbound VLCC demand from the MEG that suffers, adding to the bearish outlook for this particular market. August 2013
Oil Markets
SUMMARY OIL STATISTICS (million b/d) Annual averages 2009 2010 WORLD OIL PRODUCTION (incl Non-OPEC NGLs) Saudi Arabia 7.91 8.08 Iran 3.73 3.70 Other MEG OPEC 8.03 8.03 Non-MEG OPEC 9.00 9.35 FSU 13.17 13.57 US 7.21 7.55 Latin America (incl Mexico) 7.34 7.16 Europe 4.51 4.17 Sources: IEA OIL PRODUCTS DEMAND US 18.70 19.21 Japan 4.33 4.45 EU (Main 4)* 7.53 7.39 South Korea 2.22 2.27 PRC 8.34 9.14 FSU 3.96 4.07 Latin America (excl Mexico) 6.18 6.48 Sources: Energy Intelligence (Oil Mark et Report) CRUDE OIL & NGL EXPORTS FSU (seaborne) 5.09 5.10 FSU (Druzhba pipeline) 1.12 1.13 Mexico 1.23 1.36 UK 0.84 0.79 Sources: IEA, Pemex, PRC Customs CRUDE OIL IMPORTS US 9.06 9.14 Japan 3.66 3.71 OECD Europe 8.91 9.08 South Korea 2.32 2.39 India 2.91 3.25 PRC 4.09 4.82 Sources: US DoE, PAJ, IEA, KNSO, PRC customs REFINED PRODUCTS IMPORTS US 2.67 2.58 Japan 0.47 0.56 OECD Europe 3.59 3.21 PRC 0.74 0.69 Sources: US DoE, PAJ, IEA, PRC customs REFINERY THROUGHPUTS US 14.31 14.72 Japan 3.44 3.44 OECD Europe 12.36 12.39 South Korea 2.31 2.40 Sources: IEA CRUDE SPOT OIL PRICES (US$ per barrel) Brent (dated) 61.51 79.47 WTI (Cushing) 61.69 79.39 Urals (delivery Mediterranean) 61.04 78.27 Dubai Light 61.69 78.04 Sources: IEA * EU (Main 4) = Germany, France, Italy and the UK. 2011 9.05 3.58 8.79 8.44 13.62 7.80 7.14 3.88 Year to Date: Percentage 2012 2013 Data to: Change** 9.59 3.00 9.39 9.38 13.71 8.81 7.09 3.47 9.20 2.68 9.59 9.14 13.77 9.73 7.06 3.30 Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 -5.19% -15.97% 3.44% -2.39% 0.56% 13.24% -0.78% -10.33% Latest Month 9.54 2.65 9.48 8.75 13.52 9.95 7.04 3.20
19.08 4.43 7.37 2.26 9.37 4.62 6.59
18.67 4.70 7.08 2.24 9.77 4.67 6.53
18.78 4.59 6.92 2.27 10.02 4.65 6.39
Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul
13 13 13 13 13 13 13
0.59% -1.21% -2.40% 3.91% 4.85% 1.16% -3.31%
19.58 4.23 7.23 2.26 9.91 4.69 6.55
4.81 1.17 1.34 0.60
4.79 1.08 1.26 0.60
4.88 1.01 1.17 0.65
Jun 13 Jun 13 Jun 13 May 13
1.70% -14.35% -4.63% 7.61%
4.68 1.04 1.09 0.67
8.91 3.57 9.02 2.54 3.30 5.09
8.49 3.65 9.34 2.58 3.68 5.43
7.63 3.69 9.13 2.53 3.78 5.68
May 13 Jun 13 May 13 Jun 13 Jun 13 Jul 13
-12.10% -2.63% 0.61% -1.43% 1.84% 1.84%
7.74 3.28 9.41 2.55 3.36 6.17
2.44 0.63 3.50 0.77
2.10 0.65 3.40 0.76
2.14 0.65 3.51 0.83
May 13 May 13 May 13 Jun 13
3.17% 1.79% 3.70% 7.81%
2.32 0.54 3.65 0.77
14.83 3.23 12.15 2.55
15.00 3.23 12.11 2.60
14.90 3.30 11.66 2.51
Jun 13 Jun 13 Jun 13 Jun 13
0.37% 1.33% -2.29% -2.65%
15.70 3.14 12.11 2.59
111.27 95.04 109.22 106.19
111.58 94.15 110.74 109.05
107.57 95.74 107.11 104.34
Jul Jul Jul Jul
13 13 13 13
-3.77% -1.00% -3.29% -4.73%
107.91 104.69 108.74 103.46
** % changes for 2013 figures (year to date) against same period of 2012, e.g. Jan-Nov '13 vs Jan-Nov '12
August 2013
- 13 -
Tanker Market
Tanker markets receive a boost
ertain sectors of the tanker market experienced some significant periods of strength during July. The VLCC sector was boosted by a surge in Chinese demand as the country raised its imports in July over 1 mb/d year-on-year to a record 6.17 mb/d to replenish stocks that have been drawn down by high crude run growth. This had followed imports of just 5.42 mb/d in June, a 9-month low, as delays hit ports in the country, with deliveries likely being pushed into July as result. Chinas refinery runs were up 638 kb/d on the year in July at 9.53 mb/d. A rise in US and European demand for West African crude bolstered Suezmax markets, while MR earnings in the Atlantic surged. EAST: Eastbound VLCC rates rose in early July to their highest levels in two months due to an increase in fixing by Chinese charterers that put pressure on tonnage supply. Rates for 265K MEG-Japan rose from W36 (US$10.6/t) at the start of July to peak at W48 (US$14.1/t) in the first half of the month. This took earnings nearly $19,000/day higher to $28,800/day before levels dropped off as tonnage supply began to build, with rates ending at W34.5 (US$10.1/t).
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20
Oct-10
Daily TCE Rates, US$000s/day

280 MEG-USG 260 WAFR-China 260 MEG-Japan
VLCC Spot Earnings
Oct-11
Oct-12
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
-30
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jan-11
Jan-12
The West African market saw a similar trend, supported by Chinese and Indian demand early in the month. Production problems in Angola delayed cargoes mid-month, leaving few stems to be fixed during this period. Enquiries had fallen by end-July, thus rates for 260K WAFR-China dropped ten points to W37 (US$16.6/t), up from W33.5 (US$15.0/t) at the start of the month. A rise in the BrentDubai spread has made Atlanticbased crudes less attractive to Asian buyers for August loading, although China has booked to take 1 mb/d of W. African crude. Chinese demand for Angolan crude for September loadings however has been weak due to
Average Monthly TCE Assessments (US$/day)

DIRTY 265K MEG-Japan 280K MEG-USG 130K WAFR-USAC 135K BSea-MED 70K Caribs-USG 80K Indo-Japan CLEAN 37K UKC-USAC 30K SEAS-Japan 75K MEG-Japan 55K MEG-Japan $9,573 $2,808 $5,273 $4,398 $17,890 -$3,779 $16,232 $7,182 $9,079 $12,567
high crude stocks and low fuel oil cracks, according to Platts. The MEG Suezmax market saw a rush of activity towards the end of July, with strong demand from India pushing eastbound rates up significantly. Levels for 135K MEG-China rose from W55 (US$15.2/t) mid-month to peak at W70 (US$19.3/t) before falling back to W65 (US$17.9/t). Asian and MEG Aframax rates continued to be boosted by short -term fuel oil storage demand in the Singapore region. This pushed rates for 80K Indo-Japan up another few points to peak at W85 (US$13.7/t), taking earnings to over $13,000/day - the highest since early December 2012 before slipping. August 2013
Suezmax Spot Earnings
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Oct-10

135 BS-Med 130 WAFR-USAC
Oct-11
Oct-12
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
-10
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jan-11
Jan-12
- 14 -
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-13
Tanker Market
WEST: There was a rise in VLCC shipments to the US Gulf due to a switch in pricing dynamics making imported crude more attractive over domestic volumes. Thus rates for 280K MEG-USG rose seven points to W28 (US$14.2/t) by mid-month before falling back. In turn, Caribbean rates fell as the arrival of these additional VLCCs boosted tonnage lists for Latin American cargoes. Suezmax demand for West African crude was also boosted by the rush of US demand while North Sea oil field maintenance prompted a rise in Europeanbound cargoes. Thus rates for 130K WAFR-USAC rose twenty points throughout the month to W67.5 (US$15.5/t), taking earnings over $21,000/day for the first time since early April. Exports resumed from the Ceyhan terminal mid-July following a pipeline attack, although a further attack later in the month shut flows again until early August. However, the brief revival of volumes provided additional cargo opportunities in the Mediterranean boosting rates for 135K BSeaMed, which peaked 30 points higher late in the month at W77.5 (US$7.8/t). However, they fell to W60 (US$6.0/t) in early August but have been firming again since. In the Atlantic Basin Aframax markets, rates spiked briefly late
Aframax Spot Earnings
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Oct-10

80 UKC-UKC 70 Caribs-USG 80 Indo-Japan
Oct-11
Oct-12
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
-10
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jan-11
Jan-12
in the month for both cross-UKC and cross-Med, with the former up ten points at W90 (US$6.6/t) and the latter 25 points higher at W105 (US$12.0/t) before they came off. Cargoes in the North Sea and Baltic were lifted ahead of an anticipated reduction in August supply due to pipeline maintenance at Primorsk and higher Russian domestic demand which is reducing exports. Libyan crude output remains at reduced levels due to protests at several of its ports which is cutting the number of cargoes available in the region. In the Caribbean, rates for 70K Caribs-USG jumped 25 points towards the end of July to W105 (US$12.3/t), supported by greater lightering demand and
rising US imports as refiners raised runs. Rates tumbled in the first week of August but have strengthened again since. The Caribbean Panamax market experienced a surge in rates in the second half of July as US VGO demand increased on the back of higher refinery throughputs amid the rise in regional Aframax rates. Fuel oil and VGO shipments rose from the MEG and Red Sea as charterers switched to the smaller ships following the spike in the Aframax market. Levels for 50K Caribs-USAC rose from W105 (US$10.6/t) to W135 (US$13.6/t) but have fallen back to W120 (US$12.1/t) in early August. US refiners have also been taking more Ecuadorean crude, supporting the sector, as the rise in lighter, sweeter domestic crudes have increased demand for the heavier, sour crude. CLEAN: MR rates rose on both sides of the Atlantic. Rates for 38K Caribs-USAC climbed 15 points to W160 (US$16.1/t) early in the month taking earnings to their highest since the start of January. Cargo volumes were up due to strong Latin American demand and outages/ maintenance at refineries in Argentina, Ecuador and Venezuela. US refiners were also SSY Consultancy & Research Ltd
Dirty Panamax Spot Earnings
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5
Oct-10

50 Caribs-USG 55 UKC-USG
Oct-11
Oct-12
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jan-11
Jan-12
August 2013
- 15 -
Jan-13
Jul-13
-10
Jan-13
Jul-13
Tanker Market
boosting exports to take advantage of strong margins and to avoid the high renewable credit costs for fuels sold domestically. Rates fell to W150 (US$15.1/t) for the latter half of the month as tonnage in the region lengthened as ships arrived from the UKC. The stronger rates in the USG and Caribbean meant there was a lack of ballasters arriving in the UKC amid a brief gasoline arb to the US and a rise in demand from West Africa and Argentina. Thus rates for 37K UKC-USAC jumped from W110 (US$17.9/t) at the start of July to W157.5 (US$25.7/t) at the start of August. Levels have since dropped to W120 (US$19.6/t) as activity has slowed and tonnage lists have built up. Earnings in Asian markets continued to slide in July, with rates for 30K SingaporeJapan down from W118 (US$17.7/t) to W105 (US$15.1/t). Rising mogas demand from Vietnam and Indonesia failed to support the market due to long tonnage lists, with weak rates on the MEG/WCI-Japan route exacerbating the situation.
MR Tanker Sport Earnings 30,000 25,000 20,000
$/day
Daily TCE Rates
37 UKC-USAC 38 Caribs-USAC 30 Sing-Japan
15,000 10,000 5,000 0 -5,000
Jun-11
Jun-12
Sep-11
Sep-12
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Mar-11
Mar-12
LR1 rates continued to come off in the first half of July as the excess supply of tonnage forced owners to lower expectations in order to secure the limited cargoes available. Levels for 55K PERIOD: There was limited MEG-Japan fell 15 points to period fixing in the large crude W72.5 (US$21.1/t) before starting segment during July. However, LRTanker Spot Earnings
to pick up in the second half of the month as long-haul fixtures in both directions out of the MEG and WCI were concluded. Levels have risen back to W87.5 (US$25.5/t) in August due to a rush of mainly naphtha cargoes. In contrast, LR2 rates fell for most of July and into August due to a lack of enquiry and long tonnage lists. There has been minimal interest from Asian charterers due to weak naphtha demand amid regional oversupply. LR1s are currently stable but could be pressurised if charterers turn to the cheaper LR2s.
there has been some interest in VLCC vessels for voyages with storage options, mainly for fuel oil. A VLCC has been fixed as a replacement and it is thought that it is initially at $18,000/day for the first year. The fixture is thought to be for 2 years, with an option for another year, replacing one of the owners existing ships that was previously fixed to the same charterers. There has been a constant trickle of fixtures in the MR sector with the 1-year rate around the $14,000/day mark. This as ever, depends on the ship, its consumptions and also where and when the vessel is available. A number of newbuilding MR tankers have been discussed for time charter but at the moment it seems that short trip deals out to 6 months with delivery from the yard are the main fixtures being concluded. There has also been some interest in the LR1 and LR2 sectors but numbers started to slide which precluded fixing activity. Going forward, the view on period is still focused on the MR vessels. It is however hard to find many owners of MR ships willing to charter out on period for less than $14,000/day, but on the other hand charterers are looking for vessels below this basis 12 months. August 2013
30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Jul-10

75 MEG-Japan 55 MEG-Japan
Oct-10
Oct-11
Oct-12
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jan-11
Jan-12
- 16 -
Jan-13
Jul-13
Mar-13
Jun-13
Chemicals
Many gaps to fill
5,000t Easy Chemicals Spot Rates
130
Rotterdam-Far East
he US market fared better than most other regions in July. Freights tracked upwards on most routes, especially those into the East. For almost all of July space appeared to be tight and rates were threatening to rise dramatically, but every time they came close the arbs eased back and owners grew edgy to the extent that freights somehow fell in mid-month with 10,000t cargoes Houston/MPFE fixed in the low-mid $60s. By end-month, however, some cargoes were fetching low-mid $80s/t. USG/India-MEG also registered high levels of demand and rates rose to mid-$80s/t for 5,000t parcels but with talk of $90/t being booked too. Transatlantic eastbound produced a string of styrene deals that kept numbers firm for much of the month. Outsider space too was more attracted to routes to the East and few outsiders troubled the scheduled transatlantic carriers. US Gulf/EC.South America remained busy all month with cargoes of styrene, caustic, base oils, glycol and base oils. Scheduled space soon fixed away and spot rates remained buoyant through the month. Even USG/Caribs recorded improved demand, especially for
120 110 100 90

US$/t
US Gulf - Far East Ulsan-US Gulf Ulsan-Rotterdam
80 70 60 50 40
Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13
small CPP cargoes and rates inched upwards too. Europe entered a quiet spell with some coastal routes enduring much open tonnage. The North Sea and Baltic were blighted in this manner. Southbound into the Med managed to provide a reasonable flow of cargoes and rates held, whereas northbound was barren and rates slipped. Inter-Med markets somehow avoided a plethora of open ships, mainly because of healthy demand from cargoes associated with gasoline, such as MTBE, ETBE, ethanol and FAME. Transatlantic westbound slowed sharply and rates fell. In early July, 5,000t parcels Rdam/USAC were going for mid-$40s/t, but by end-month struggled to make low
$40s/t. One notable fixture was for 30,000t caustic in one shipment, collected from various out-ports by coaster and put on a mother-ship in Rdam, making this a unique cargo to date. Europe/Asia appeared to have a surplus of July space and owners quickly cut rates from low $90s/t to low $80s/t for 5,000t cargoes Rdam/MPFE. Even so, some ships ended sailing with space, but August looks to be tighter. Europe/India-MEG saw steady progress through July, with few changes, if any, to report. In domestic Asia markets, owners could carve themselves something of a forward programme, but rarely more than a week or two. Rates were weak for most of July, whether intraSE.Asia, north or southbound. Export demand was not fantastic but rates stayed stable. Palm oil demand slowed with the Indian Monsoons and rates for longhaul palm oil back to Europe fell into the low $60s/t, with some larger shipments reportedly going in the $50s/t. Ramadan kept the MEG region pretty static. Eastbound demand faltered in mid-July and rates slipped slightly. Westbound demand centred on methanol, MTBE, caustic, glycol and styrene and rates stayed unchanged. SSY Consultancy & Research Ltd
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
5,000t Easy Chemical Spot Rates

US Gulf - Santos Rotterdam - US Gulf US Gulf - EC Mexico US Gulf-Rotterdam
US$ / t
August 2013
Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13
- 17 -
LNG
Market conditions: Confirmed activity in July was limited, amid continued tight tonnage supply in the Atlantic, with the few open ships in that region being warm and available for only very short periods. This situation was made worse by the force majeure that had been imposed on exports from Nigeria staying in place until 26 July. While greater enquiry was initially seen in the Pacific, this subsided as July progressed, amid reports that storage tanks both in Japan and Korea were close to being full. Estimated spot rates for modern 155,000cbm ships held at some US$105,000/day - unchanged from end-June levels. Shipping Developments: The fifth new LNGC delivery of 2013 took place, with the handover of the Woodside Rogers (159,800 cbm) to Maran Gas Maritime on 1 July. She is the first of 7 such vessels ordered by this owner from DSME, with the last due for delivery in 2015. The Woodside Rogers will shortly start lifting cargoes from Australias 4.3mtpa capacity Pluto LNG project. She will be the fourth vessel to be deployed on trades ex-Pluto. Having taken delivery of the above unit, Maran Gas Maritime awarded a contract to DSME in early July for two 173,400cbm vessels. These are believed to have been contracted at around US$205m apiece and are both due for delivery in 2h16. Golar LNG obtained US$500m of finance from state-owned Korean banks to help fund its newbuilding programme. Korean Export-Import Bank is to provide Golar with US$450m to secure orders for 6 LNGCs and 2 LNG FSRUs to be built by Samsung Heavy Industries. Korea Finance Corp will provide Golar with a US$50m credit facility, the purpose of which is yet unclear. On 26 July, Nigeria LNG (NLNG) lifted the force majeure that had been in place on LNG exports SSY Consultancy & Research Ltd
10,000 9,000 8,000
thousand cbm
LNG Carrier Supply at August 2013

Ships on order (confirmed) Existing fleet
7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0

< 1970
SOURCE: SSY
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
year of build / scheduled delivery
from its 21.7mtpa capacity plant at Bonny since 28 June. This had been declared by NLNG after the imposition of a blockade by the Nigerian Maritime Administration & Safety Agency that had halted free movement of ships into and out of Bonny Channel. The blockade had arisen after a dispute regarding non-payment by NLNG of a maritime levy on LNG cargoes. Three LNGCs entered service in late July: Greeces Dynagas took delivery of the ice-class sisters Clean World and Yenisei River (both 154,880cbm) from Hyundai Heavy Industries. The 154,948cbm GasLog Skagen was handed over by Samsung to GasLog. This took to 8 ships of 1.11 million cbm new deliveries in 2013 to date. The Clean World will evidently be renamed Arctic Aurora before starting a 5-year charter to Statoil. Reports indicate that she has been fixed at around US$83,000/day. Teekay LNG Partners declared options on two 173,400cbm LNGCs to be built by DSME, with both due for 2016 delivery. No details emerged as to the price of these ships. Teekay has also agreed options for up to 5 further units of this specification. Terminals: Russian government sources said that the countrys - 18 -
LNG export policy may be liberalised as soon as 1 January 2014, enabling companies other than Gazprom to engage in such trades. This move evidently has presidential backing and Russian energy producers Novatek and Rosneft have recently signed provisional sales deals with would-be foreign buyers of Russian-produced LNG, if such liberalisation ensues. Gazprom currently has a monopoly both on Russias exports of LNG and pipelined natural gas. Frances Montoir de Bretagne LNG terminal stated that it will soon be able to offer ship-to-ship transfers and that these could be completed in 48 hours. This is potentially significant, given the likely commissioning of new LNG plants in the Arctic Circle by around 2017. This could create demand for a safe European location where cargoes could be switched from ice-class LNGCs that had loaded in the Arctic to standard vessels for onward voyages to non-icebound ports. The Port of Gothenburg may receive SEK305m (US$35.7m) of EU funding that, if approved, would help Sweden to establish its first LNG terminal. Imported LNG would evidently be used mainly as a marine bunker fuel. The port authorities are said to
August 2013
2015
LNG
be liaising with their counterparts at Rotterdam to gain insight into such use of LNG. Reports claim that the new terminal should be in service by 2015, with an initial storage capacity of 20,000cbm. Ukraine claimed that various Korean companies are keen to participate in the 5mtpa capacity Odessa LNG terminal, which is intended for early 2015 start up. Ukraine does not yet import LNG, but the start up of the Odessa facility would allow it to cut energy imports from Russia. In early July, Pakistans new government cancelled the tender issued by its predecessor, under which bidders were to have applied to supply LNG to two planned import terminals. Bids to supply these, one of which was to have had a handling capacity of 0.2 Bcf/day and the other 0.4 Bcf/day, were due to have been opened on 1 July. However, the new regime claimed these bids were subject to procedural irregularities and scrapped both tenders. However, Pakistans plans to import LNG have not stalled entirely, as the new government aims to launch a tender to supply a 0.5 Bcf/day facility, to be based at a venue yet to be chosen. Myanmar (Burma) aims to start importing LNG in 2014 to meet surging energy demand. The Yangon Electricity Supply Board (YESB) has issued a tender that closes at end-July, by which time parties seeking to supply the country with 0.15-0.20 Bcf/day of LNG would need to submit bids. Chinas terminals imported 1.25 Mt of LNG in June - down by 0.10Mt from May but 0.04Mt above year-earlier levels. This took to 8.34Mt LNG imports by China in 1h13 - up by 1.67Mt (+25.0%) from 1h12 levels. Liquefaction: In the US, Freeport LNG Development confirmed that it aims to raise funds to finance the first 2 trains
US$ per day
160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0
138/150,000cbm LNGCs: Estimated Spot Earnings

Monthly averages
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
at its planned Quintana Island LNG plant in Texas. These would be built alongside the existing Freeport LNG import terminal which, after the plant is built, would act as an export facility. Ultimately, the plant would produce 13.2mtpa of LNG. Gazprom said that the Shtokman LNG project in the Barents Sea has been abandoned until new technology can make it viable. Previously, Gazprom, which has a 75% stake in the project and Total, which owns the other 25%, had sought to develop Shtokman as a 7.5mtpa capacity single-train plant.
At end-June, construction of the PNG LNG plant at Konebada in Papua New Guinea was said to be 90% complete and on target for first LNG sales, as planned, in 2014. At least initially, the facility will comprise two trains, each of 3.45mtpa capacity. The first will shortly receive its initial gas supplies. Work on train 2 is currently still in progress. Australias Santos said in July that building of Queenslands Gladstone LNG project at Curtis Island (in which it is the project operator and largest shareholder) was over 60% complete. First LNG output is due in 2015.
100,000
Japan
LNG Imports by Country

Korea Taiwan USA China
90,000 80,000 2013 totals estimated on basis of imports in year to date 70,000
thousand mt
60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
August 2013
- 19 -
Apr-13
Jul-13
Sale & Purchase

Bulk carriers
July was inevitably going to see secondhand S&P activity subside, with Ramadan and summer holidays both playing their part. Be this as it may, demand for quality tonnage was still evident. In the Capesize market, clients of Ocean Bulk purchased the Cape Shanghai (175,000dwt, blt 2006, Shanghai Waigaoqiao) for a reported US$28m. Meanwhile, the postPanamax Thira Sea (92,500dwt, blt 2009, Yangfan) was sold at the start of the month via auction to an undisclosed party for a price in region of US$20m. There were 3 known Kamsarmax sales to report; the first of these was the fourth Kambara Kisen-owned 82,000dwt Tsuneishi Zhoushan resale, which was rumoured to have changed hands for US$30.75m to Greek buyers. The Fortune Island (82,331dwt, blt 2008, Oshima) and the Spring Ocean (82,787dwt, blt 2005, Tsuneishi) were both sold to separate Greek buyers for US$21.75m and US$18m respectively. In the Panamax sector, the most interesting deal was without doubt the sale of the Euro Trader (76,500dwt, blt 2009, Shin Kasado), which was acquired by clients of Franco Naviera for US$19.25m; this represented a considerable fall on the previously rumoured price of US$21.5m and certainly appears an attractive price for the buyers. The Yusho Regulus (76,500dwt, blt 2006, Imabari) was committed to clients of Chronos for US$18.25m, which is a firm level given the general softening of prices in this sector in the past month. Elsewhere in this sector, the Legato (72,083dwt, blt 1999, Kanasashi) was sold to unnamed buyers for US$ 9.3m.
$110 $100 $90 $80
Million US$
Newbuilding Bulk Carriers Contract Price (Japan) - Western Specs

Handysize Supramax Panamax Capesize
$70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10

Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-13 Jan-13 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-13 Jul-13
Secondhand Bulk Carriers

$170 $150 $130 $110
Million US$
Five-Year-Old Vessels
Handysize Panamax Supramax Capesize
$90 $70 $50 $30 $10

Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-12
Secondhand Bulk Carriers

$140
Ten-Year-Old Vessels
$120
Handysize Panamax
Supramax Capesize
$100
Million US$
$80
$60
$40
$20
$0
Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11
- 20 -
August 2013
Sale & Purchase

On the Supramax front, the only sale to report was that of the Ocean Adventure (52,409dwt, blt 2005, Tsuneishi) which clients of Shanghai Newseas purchased for US$17.8m. In the Handymax sector, activity fell significantly, with the only sale of note being the Yantian Sea (44,821dwt, blt 1995, Halla) for US$6.7m, having been on long-term charter to Cosco. In other news, the Handysize sector had a number of notable sales, with two modern 31,900dwt Hakodatebuilt sister-ships, Baltic Fox (blt 2010) and Baltic Hare (blt 2010) purchased by clients of Baltic Trading in an en bloc deal for US$41m, with an agreement to enter both vessels into the Clipper Logger Pool, a Handysize pool operated by Clipper Bulk. Meanwhile, Norwegian buyers were behind the acquisition of two Tsuji resales for US$17.2m each.
Million US$
$160 $150 $140 $130 $120 $110 $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20
Newbuilding Double-Hulled Tankers Contract Price (Korea) - Western Specs

MR (clean) Aframax Suezmax VLCC
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
VLCC
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Five-Year-Old Double-Hulled Vessels $175 MR (clean) $150 Suezmax $125 Aframax
Secondhand Tankers
Million US$
$100
$75
Tankers
The secondhand tanker S&P market was fairly active in July across all sectors, with buyers consisting of financial institutions, conversion buyers and Greek owners. Navios Maritime of Greece purchased the BW Luck (298,717dwt, blt 2003, Daewoo) from BW Group for region US$35.3m. Another Greek owner acquired the Mitsui OSK-owned, Japanese-built Perseus Trader (300,000dwt, blt 2003, Universal) for a reported US$30m. In the Suezmax segment, Primorsk Shipping committed their Prisco Alcor (162,400dwt, blt 2007, HHI, ice class 1A) on long subjects to an Indonesian conversion buyer for a healthy US$42.0m, which reflected the nature of the deal and period of the subjects. Oceangold Tankers of Greece were reportedly behind the acquisition of the 11-year-old Elisewin (150,709dwt, blt2002, NKK) for US$25.0m, including financing provided by a German bank. She will continue trading in the Heidmar pool and technical
$50
$25
$0
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
management will stay with Dr Peters. In the LR1 market, Flagship Management, the joint venture between Prime Marine of Greece and private equity firm Perella Weinberg, reportedly purchased two modern IMO3 tankers, the Enjoy (74,158dwt, blt 2011, SPP) and Marka (73,500dwt, blt 2012, SPP) in an en bloc deal for region US$72m, subject to an IPO. These were placed under Greek-owned Scorpio Groups management. The Chinese-built Polar (72,000dwt,. blt 2005, Hudong) was purchased at auction in Singapore by Greek buyers for an undisclosed price. In the MR segment, the New Yorklisted Greek owner Navios Maritime Acquisition reportedly bought two 45,400dwt chemical tanker resales from Korean shipyard Shina for
US$33.6m each, with delivery in July and August 2013. The vessels were renamed Nave Universe and Nave Constellation and had time-charters with Navig8 attached. The Angolan state oil company Sonangol reportedly purchased the Italianowned IMO3 product tankers Electa and Fantasia (both 51,000dwt, blt 2009, SLS) for a very firm US$30m net each for domestic trades. Cido Shipping sold their 9-year-old nonIMO pumproom type Pacific Polaris (47,999dwt, blt 2004, Iwagi) to Far Eastern buyers for a reported US$17m, in line with the sale in May of her sister-vessel, Pacific Oasis (47,999,dwt, blt 2004, Iwagi). Sovcomflot sold to a UK-based buyer for region US$9.1m each their older Croatian-built Tver (40,000dwt) and Tomsk (40,703dwt), built 1996 and 1997 respectively at Brodotrogir.
August 2013
- 21 -
Jul-13
Jul-13
Sale & Purchase

Representative Bulk Carrier Sales July 2013
Nam e Ocean Star Sea Bell Great Creation Tsuji resale Tsuji resale Baltic Fox Baltic Hare Darulkar Yantian Sea Ocean Adventure Darya Brahma Legato Pruva Pow er Steel Euro Trader Yusho Regulus Tsuneishi resale Fortune Island Spring Ocean Thira Sea Cape Shanghai DWT 18,367 24,997 27,383 30,000 30,000 31,900 31,900 42,609 44,821 52,409 56,056 72,083 74,137 74,443 76,500 76,500 82,000 82,331 82,787 92,300 175,000 Built 2000 2000 1998 2013 2013 2010 2009 1986 1995 2005 2006 1999 1995 1999 2009 2006 2014 2008 2005 2009 2006 Yard INP Heavy Industries Iw agi Hudong Tsuji Tsuji Hakodate Hakodate Mitsui Halla Eng & HI Tsuneishi Mitsui Kanasashi HI Hashihama Sasebo Shin Kasado Imabari Tsuneishi Zhoushan Oshima Tsuneishi Yangfan Shanghai Waigaoqiao Gear Crs 4x30 ts Crs 3x30.5 ts Crs 4x30 ts Rem arks Region $4.8m to Greek buyers Region $6.1-6.5m to undisclosed buyers Region low $6's m to undisclosed buyers Region $17.2m each 'en bloc' to Norw egian buyers Region $41m 'en bloc' to Baltic Region $3.5m to Chinese buyers Region $6.7m to Chinese buyers Region $17.8m t Shanghai New seas Region $19.6m to undisclosed buyers Region $8.5m to undisclosed buyers Region $7.5m to Chinese buyers Region $11m to Chinese buyers Region $19.25m to Franco Naviera Region $18.25m to Chinos Region $30.75m to Greek buyers Region $21.75m to Greek buyers Region $18m to Greek buyers Region $20m to undisclosed buyers Region $28m to Ocean Bulk
Crs Crs Crs Crs Crs Crs
4x30 ts 4x30 ts 4x25 ts 4x25 ts 4x30 ts 4x30.5 ts
Representative Tanker Sales July 2013

Nam e Atagun Laguna Sw an Diamond Star Onsys Aquarius Golden Atlas STX Knight STX Jaguar MCT Altair Atlantic Livadia Cielo Di Parigi Tomsk Tver Pacific Polaris Electa Fantasia Polar Morning Glory V Marka Enjoy Kornati Elisew in Prisco Alcor BW Luck Perseus Trader DWT 2,147 5,897 5,897 6,360 6,500 15,091 15,091 19,996 34,999 36,032 40,703 40,000 47,999 51,000 51,000 72,000 72,500 73,500 74,158 103,368 150,709 162,400 298,717 300,000 Built 2008 2010 2010 2008 1999 2010 2009 1999 1999 2001 1997 1996 2004 2009 2009 2006 1998 2012 2001 2000 2002 2007 2003 2003 Yard Yilirim Tuzla Chongqing Chongqing Yangzhou Haichuam Murakami STX Braila, Romania STX Braila, Romania Uljanik Daedong Daedong Brodotrogir dd Brodotrogir dd Iw agi SLS SLS Hudong Onomichi SPP SPP Gdynia NKK HHI DSME Universal Shipbuilding Features IMO 2 Sold for/Rem arks Region $5m to Greek buyers Region $12m each to Dutch buyers Reported sold on private terms to undisclosed buyers Region $5.3m to Vietnamese buyers Region $12.7m 'en bloc' to Middle Eastern buyers Region $9m to undisclosed buyers Region $7m to Greek buyers Region $12.65m to Chinese buyers Region $9.1m each 'en bloc' to UK based buyers Region $17m to Far Eastern buyers Region $30m each to Sonangol Reported sold at auction in Singapore f or undisclosed price Region $8.5m to undisclosed buyers Region $72m 'en bloc' to Flagship Management Region $9.8m to Greek buyers Region $25m to Oceangold Tankers (incl f inancing) Region $42m to Indonesian buyers Region $35.3m to Navios Reported sold for unknon price to unknow n buyers
IMO 2, Ice Class 1A IMO 2, Ice Class 1A IMO 3
Non-IMO IMO 3 IMO 3
Ice 1A
In the Handy product sector, d'Amico reportedly sold their Cielo Di Parigi (36,032dwt, blt 2001, Daedong, IMO3) for US$12.65m to Lianoning Steamship of China. In May, the same sellers had sold her sister-ship Cielo Di Londra for US$12.5m to Indian buyers. The marginally older Atlantic Livadia (34,999dwt, blt 1999, Daedong) was purchased as is, Constanza for US$7.0m by Greek buyers, which is substantially lower than the price that her sister-ship Atlantic Lutetia achieved, reflecting damage to the formers main engine. Of chemical/product tanker sales, the
15,091dwt ice-class IA IMO2 sisterships STX Jaguar and STX Knight (blt 2009 & 2010 respectively, STX Braila) were purchased en bloc by Middle Eastern buyers for US$12.7m. Meanwhile, Hanseatic Lloyd reportedly sold their MCT Altair (19,996dwt, blt 1999, Uljanik, IMO2) for US$9.0m to undisclosed buyers. The Japanese-owned Golden Atlas (6,500dwt.blt 1999, Murakami, IMO2/3) was purchased for US$5.3m by buyers from Vietnam. Transocean Oil sold their Onsys Aquarius (6,360dwt, blt Yangzhou Haichuan, 2008) on private terms.
In the bitumen carrier market, the Laguna Swan (5,897dwt, blt 2010, Chongqing) and Diamond Star (5,897dwt, blt 2010, Chongqing) both went to Dutch buyers for US$12m each.
Demolition
Despite falling steel prices and exchange rate movements that deterred some would-be buyers of demolition tonnage, disposals of older vessels continued apace in July. In all, a further 91 ships totalling 4.44mdwt (0.91mlwt) were reported sold, these comprising 72 dry cargo units of 2.09mdwt (0.55mlwt) and 19 oil
Whilst every effort is taken to ensure accuracy, this report is given for your guidance only without any guarantees
- 22 -
August 2013
Sale & Purchase

Indicative Sales for Demolition July 2013
Type Bulk Bulk Bulk Bulk Bulk Bulk Bulk Bulk Bulk Bulk Bulk Bulk Bulk Bulk Bulk Cont LNG Barge Reef Roro Tank Tank Tank Tank Tank Tank FPSO FPSO Nam e Morning Star Trinidad Fu Kuo Hsin No. 6 Malyovitza Malyovitza Sun New Tor Barbaros G Sea Emerald Taba Krym Provider Baltic Pearl Canarsie Princess Irini CSL Stefanie Formentara Rainforest Heogh Transit Petrolimex 04 Provid Londrina Panther Konnoz Alkhalig Naviga Osk 4 Osk 5 DWT 10,353 19,508 22,186 24,456 25,618 31,253 30,435 30,650 37,895 38,110 38,110 38,590 38,787 42,842 47,665 46,201 2,715 13,560 17,650 29,998 39,750 45,069 46,100 46,100 150,841 301,000 301,000 LWT 5,118 5,026 7,187 7,819 7,819 7,532 6,342 7,218 7,105 7,812 7,812 7,754 10,688 7,655 8,488 17,579 2,017 7,125 13,480 6,107 9,651 10,453 10,730 10,730 21,751 41,261 41,261 Built 1983 1977 1973 1983 1983 1985 1982 1984 1986 1985 1982 1985 1982 1985 1978 1993 1973 1985 1981 1988 1985 1994 1985 1985 1998 1994 1995 Rem arks Region $380 for delivery Bangladesh Region $390 for delivery India Region $303 for delivery China, Limestone Carrier Region $389 for delivery India Region $389 for delivery India Region $360 'as is' Incheon w ith 150 ts ROB Region $382 for delivery India Region $382 for delivery Bangladesh Region $407 for delivery Bangladesh Region $404 for delivery India Region $303 for delivery Turkey Region $411 for delivery India including 200 ts bunkers Region $418 for delivery Bangladesh, w ith full spares Region $420 for delivery Bangladesh including about 380 ts bunkers ROB Region $407 for delivery Bangladesh Region $440 for delivery India including about 800 ts bunkers ROB Region $510 for delivery, high amount of non-ferrous including about 386 ts aluminium Region $372 for delivery India Region $320 for delivery China Region $350 'as is' Vietnam Region $435 for delivery Pakistan Region $290 'as is' Rio de Janeiro Region $450 for delivery Pakistan including bunkers ROB Region $422 for delivery Bangladesh Region $440 for delivery Pakistan Region $395 'en bloc' for delivery Indonesia
carriers of 2.36mdwt (0.36mlwt). Julys continued selling took total sales in the first 7 months of the year to 619 vessels of 26.7mdwt (6.1 mlwt). While down by almost 7.6 mdwt (-22.7%) from volumes transacted in the same period of 2012, this was still very high by historical standards. As a result, 2013 still remains on course to exceed volumes reported sold in any recent year other than 2012, as seen in the accompanying graph. In July, prices of bulkers sold for breaking on the sub-Continent fell from some US$403 at the start of the month to US$390/lwt, or their lowest level since mid-July last year. In fact, the price falls seen in recent months have been pronounced and almost uninterrupted, having declined from around US$433/lwt as recently as at end-April, or a reduction of 10% in just three months. July sales included the disposal of 2 FPSOs, with the sister-ships Osk 4 and Osk 5 (both 301,000dwt, blt 1994 and 1995 respectively) sold en bloc on an as is, Indonesia basis for
a reported US$395/lwt. It was not clear at the time of their sale whether these vessels were fully gas free or where they were likely to be scrapped. Of other large units transacted, the Suezmax Naviga (150,841dwt, blt 1998) was sold for a reported $440/lwt to Pakistani breakers. This appears particularly significant, given that i) the vessel was only 15 years old and ii) no indications were given of the ship
being sold in damaged condition. If all is as it appears, this would seem to be the first case of such a modern oil tanker being sold for breaking since the severely-depressed markets of the mid-1980s, when large numbers of such ships were committed for demolition, rather than their owners incurring the expense of putting them through their third Special Survey.
Reported Ship Demolition Sales

60 55 50 45 40
million dwt
(including non-bulk vessels)
Dry cargo / other
Oil carriers
2013 total annualised on basis of sales in year to date
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Whilst every effort is taken to ensure accuracy, this report is given for your guidance only without any guarantees
August 2013
- 23 -
SSY Fleet Database

Bulk Carrier Fleet, as at end July 2013
Existing Pre-1989 1989/93 1994/98 1999/03 2004/08 2009/13 Total New buildings 2013 2014 2015+ Total 10-39,999 No. MDWT 611 16.6 117 3.1 363 9.3 274 7.5 361 9.9 1,123 35.3 2,849 81.7 110 170 92 372 3.7 5.7 3.3 12.7 40-64,999 No. MDWT 221 10.4 102 4.8 361 16.6 343 17.2 485 26.2 1,355 76.6 2,867 151.8 139 168 107 414 7.7 9.8 6.4 23.9 65-99,999 No. MDWT 57 4.0 115 8.3 298 21.6 320 24.2 434 34.2 997 82.9 2,221 175.3 159 184 65 408 12.7 14.9 5.3 32.9 100-219,999 No. MDWT 14 2.4 71 11.2 146 23.6 135 23.1 234 42.3 754 130.3 1,354 233.0 59 73 61 193 10.6 13.4 11.0 34.9 220,000+ No. MDWT 7 2.0 40 10.8 24 6.8 3 0.7 12 3.2 106 32.5 192 56.0 6 18 4 28 2.3 4.9 1.0 8.1 Total No. MDWT 910 35.4 445 38.3 1,192 78.0 1,075 72.6 1,526 115.9 4,335 357.6 9,483 697.8 473 613 329 1,415 36.9 48.7 27.0 112.5
Combined Carrier Fleet, as at end July 2013

Existing Pre-1989 1989/93 1994/98 1999/03 2004/08 2009/13 Total New buildings 2012 2013 2014+ Total 10-79,999 No. MDWT 4 0.1 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 4 0.1 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 80-109,999 No. MDWT 0 0.0 0 0.0 6 0.7 4 0.4 0 0.0 0 0.0 10 1.1 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 110-139,999 No. MDWT 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 2 0.2 0 0.0 0 0.0 2 0.2 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 140-199,999 No. MDWT 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 200,000+ No. MDWT 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 5 1.6 5 1.6 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total No. MDWT 4 0.1 0 0.0 6 0.7 6 0.7 0 0.0 5 1.6 21 3.1 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tanker Fleet, including Chemical Tankers, as at end July 2013

Existing Pre-1989 1989/93 1994/98 1999/03 2004/08 2009/13 Total New buildings 2013 2014 2015+ Total 10-26,999 No. MDWT 118 1.9 47 0.7 118 1.7 173 2.9 507 7.9 412 6.8 1,375 21.9 34 14 4 52 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.9 27-41,999 42-59,999 No. MDWT No. MDWT 64 2.2 18 0.9 72 2.6 40 1.8 88 3.1 91 4.2 166 6.0 155 7.1 277 10.3 451 21.7 119 4.3 424 20.8 786 28.5 1,179 56.5 9 19 7 35 0.3 0.7 0.3 1.3 38 103 90 231 1.9 5.2 4.5 11.6 60-84,999 No. MDWT 18 1.3 18 1.2 8 0.5 66 4.7 210 15.2 118 8.8 438 31.8 8 9 5 22 0.6 0.7 0.3 1.6 85-119,999 120-199,999 200,000+ No. MDWT No. MDWT No. MDWT 1 0.1 2 0.2 0 0.0 38 3.7 16 2.3 16 4.7 91 9.2 56 8.2 52 15.5 190 20.3 102 15.8 168 51.0 297 32.4 118 18.8 146 45.0 277 30.5 196 30.9 245 76.1 894 96.2 490 76.1 627 192.2 5 34 21 60 0.6 3.8 2.3 6.7 19 20 28 67 2.9 3.1 4.0 10.0 17 31 7 55 5.4 9.8 2.2 17.4 Total No. MDWT 221 6.7 247 17.1 504 42.4 1,020 107.8 2,006 151.3 1,791 178.1 5,789 503.3 130 230 162 522 12.3 23.5 13.7 49.5
Container Ships on Order, as at end July 2013

New buildings 2013 2014 2015+ Total 500-999 1,000-1,999 2,000-2,999 3,000-3,999 4,000+ 100-499 No. TEU No. TEU No. TEU No. TEU No. TEU No. TEU 3 839 7 5,665 13 19,056 12 28,580 18 65,598 60 504,932 0 0 4 3,164 39 54,483 14 32,568 10 36,482 150 1,475,770 2 320 0 0 18 23,918 17 38,776 15 56,400 93 996,672 5 1,159 11 8,829 70 97,457 43 99,924 43 158,480 303 2,977,374 Total No. 113 217 145 475 TEU 624,670 1,602,467 1,116,086 3,343,223
- 24 -
August 2013

aug3SSY Monthly Shipping Review - Aug 13

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aug3SSY Monthly Shipping Review - Aug 13

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Editorial date: 13 August 2013

Monthly Shipping Review

Baltic Exchange Dry Index

Dry bulk tonnage supply grew further in

Crude Tanker Spot Earnings

Dry Bulk Market

Cape TCs Remain Over $10,000/Day

Baltic Exchange Dry Index

SSY Capesize Indices

42,000 37,000 32,000

27,000 22,000 17,000 12,000 7,000 2,000

SSY Consultancy & Research Ltd

Dry Bulk Market

Capesize (172,000 dwt)

Coal Freight Rates

Coal 140,000 RB/Rotterdam

12 Month Time-Charter Rates

100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0

SSY Consultancy & Research Ltd

US Coal Exports: Recent Perspective

Steam coal Coking coal

8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0

US Coal Exports: Long-Term Perspective

Steam coal Coking coal

SSY Consultancy & Research Ltd

Colom bia Indonesia PR China

[SSY] [Jun] [SSY]

USA Other Im porters

SSY Consultancy & Research Ltd

110.0 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0

EU-15 Steel Production

Source: World Steel Association

SSY Consultancy & Research Ltd

SSY Consultancy & Research Ltd

Quarterly Grain Exports From Russia & Ukraine

8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0

Russia & Ukraine Grain Exports Vs Supramax Rates

6.0 Estimated 5.0

4.0 18,000 3.0 14,000 2.0

Grain Exports Turkey-Far East Supra Rate (monthly avg)

SSY Consultancy & Research Ltd

SSY Consultancy & Research Ltd

Figures as at August 2013 SOURCE: IHS-Fairplay

Offshore Dry Cargo Container Tanker Bulker 0 2 4 6 million gross tons 8 10 12

China: Ships on Order by Vessel Type

Figures as at August 2013 SOURCE: IHS-Fairplay

annual change (%)

Primary industry Secondary industry Tertiary industry

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment: Annual Change By Projects

annual change (%)

EC Canada Crude Imports by Source

Source: Various Source: Argus

0.2 0.0 Source: Argus, SSY Jan-11 Jul-11

SSY Consultancy & Research Ltd

19.08 4.43 7.37 2.26 9.37 4.62 6.59

18.67 4.70 7.08 2.24 9.77 4.67 6.53

18.78 4.59 6.92 2.27 10.02 4.65 6.39

Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul

0.59% -1.21% -2.40% 3.91% 4.85% 1.16% -3.31%

19.58 4.23 7.23 2.26 9.91 4.69 6.55

4.81 1.17 1.34 0.60

4.79 1.08 1.26 0.60

4.88 1.01 1.17 0.65

Jun 13 Jun 13 Jun 13 May 13