Data Analysis Project 1

Nathan Missen

Introduction and Purpose of study

What characteristics make for a winning rikishi? Sumo is a unique sport in its own right; no other

event that has its combination of explosive timing, brute force, use of strategy, and luck. It is also

one of the few sports that requires extreme physiological characteristics of its participants (other

comparable sports include female gymnastics & jockeying, with the possible inclusion of female

ballet). Thus, it stands to reason that there would be unique characteristics for a successful sumo

wrestler. There are many different factors involved in determining the outcome of a single sumo

match. Timing, strength, the crowd, and many more aggregate together to eventuate in either a

win or a loss. Of these many aspects, three wrestler-explicit variables have been isolated and

chosen for analysis in this study: weight, height and favorite technique type. Each will be

explained in more detail in the following paragraphs.

First, why include weight in this analysis? Weight would certainly seem to be important factor;

any sport involving the use of leverage, pivot points, etc places a heavy emphasis on the

individual’s body mass. In Greco-Roman wrestling, which can be compared, at least superficially

to sumo, weight control and weight loss are important morphological variables (Martin &

Margherita, 1999). Similar conclusions were also made for elite judo athletes (Callister, Callister,

Staron, Fleck, Tesch P & Dudley, 1991). Weight gain has also been linked to rank progression in

sumo (S.W.A, 1993). Also, we can apply basic physics principles, such as Newton’s Second law

and the formulas demonstrating its effect. In particular, Force = Mass x Acceleration, and

Momentum = Mass x Velocity. The first formula is of importance in Sumo, as when the match

begins, the contestants are only 70cm apart. Therefore, generating maximum force in the first few

seconds of a bout is essential to winning; the more weight a wrestler has, the more force they can

produce, thereby increasing the certitude of a win from the initial charge (taichiai). However, if a

rikishi weighs too much, they may not be able to accelerate very quickly from their starting

position, thereby reducing the potential match-winning force. Weight needs to be carefully
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monitored and regulated to have a positive effect upon a sumo combatant’s success.

Secondly, why has height been included in this study? There is practically no research (again, in

English) concerning height in sumo; nor is there any literature relating the importance of height in

other combative arts (judo, Greco-roman wrestling, jiu-jitsu, etc). However, we can utilize basic

physics principles to provide reasoning for the inclusion of height in this research project;

according to mechanics of torque (Torque = force x length), a wrestler who is a taller (and, by

extension, has a longer reach) will be able to produce a higher degree of rotational force than a

shorter opponent, given the situation that both wrestlers are in an equidistant, stable position (i.e.

a “clinch”). This is a regular occurrence in sumo, as wrestlers tend to absorb the impact of the

taichiai through their sheer mass. The rikishi are then in ideal position to throw each other; thus,

being able to produce and utilize torque is of extreme importance in these situations. However,

Sang-Hyop (2006) do mention that a wrestler of greater than average height would be at a

disadvantage; since their center of balance is higher, taller wrestlers can succumb easier to

throws, especially if their lower body is targeted. Height, it would seem, is a double-edged sword.

Choice of technique can also be of paramount significance in determining who is victorious in the

doyho (sumo ring). Of the forty-six official techniques (or kimarite as they are known), two types

are pre-eminent among rikishi: yori (“push” type) and nage (“throw” type). Both of these types

encompass a range of techniques that are aligned upon a spectrum of complexity; however, there

is a fundamental difference between these two. Yori category moves rely primarily upon

momentum to (literally) propel rikishi to victory; techniques that fall in the nage classification are

dependent upon utilization of rotational and perpendicular force. Thus, even though yori and

nage are used quite commonly used in the sumo tournaments by all wrestlers, the principles and

application behind each are subtly different, and validate their inclusion in this study.
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Finally, it must be noted that there is a limited amount of material in this area. For certain, there

are papers covering a rikishi’s risk of diabetes (Manyu et al, 2005, Ekoe, 1989), how sumo

participants challenge the limits of the human body (Kondo, Abe, Ikegawa, Kawakami &

Fukunaga, 1994) and even jump speed (Alegre, Anzar, Jiménex & Aguado, 2005). However, it is

believed that there are currently no papers in English covering this particular aspect of sumo

physical characteristics (in combination with technique preference) and their influence on

separate and specific measures of success.

Thus, the overarching purpose of this study is to evaluate what makes for a successful rikishi. By

examining and assessing how three factors (height, weight and favorite technique type) operate as

single sources of influence as well as in combination, insight can hopefully be determined into

what distinguishes a consistently above-average performing sumo from the rest.

Research Questions

In this study, three key research queries are of interest. The first question addresses if height,

weight, or technique in isolation have a significant influence upon the three designated measures

of success (i.e. percentage of matches won, number of tournaments/prizes won, and time between

initial debut and makuuichi debut). Research and scientific principles mentioned in the preceding

paragraphs outline the importance of height, weight and technique. Consequently, each one will

be appraised separately. The second goal is to evaluate if the above factors, when aggregated,

have a cogent impact upon the outlined measures of success. This is to assay if a single factor

source of variation exerts a larger effect upon the sumo’s performance than a multi-factor source

of variation. Also, the results may prove valuable to other researchers or experts in the sumo field

wishing to perform multiple regression analyses. The final inquiry for this study is to explore

what exactly defines “success” in sumo by examining and comparing the data yielded on the

three measures of success. The rationale behind this revolves around the core concept of multiple
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methods of data collection; having just a single measure of success may well be misrepresentative

as there could be external, uncontrolled influences that can bias certain outcomes. By utilizing

several gauges of accomplishment, a more complete and comprehensive profile of that sumo

wrestler’s performance can be produced. In particular, the most common measure (that is, win

percentage) can often be deceiving at a superficial glance. Thus, the number of months between

initial debut and makuuichi debut (or, the number of months between attaining a professional rank

and an elite rank) and number of tournaments/special prizes won (which could prove to be a

direct measure of a rikishi’s skill, as prizes are usually awarded for technical demonstrations,

rather than winning per se). In addition, these results may serve to inform and prompt discussion

amongst followers of sumo, or even lead to a broader discussion about what constitutes success in

sports as a whole.

Based upon the aforementioned reasoning and research and the author’s (albeit limited)

knowledge of the mechanics of sumo, it was projected that of the three quasi-independent

variables in this study, none of them in and of themselves would have an effect upon any of the

three measures of success. This is because the author believes that there is no single, readily

isolated factor (such as weight or height) can solely account for success. In contrast to this, at

least one interaction is predicted to occur and have an effect upon one (or more) of the specified

measures of success. In particular, sumo wrestlers of slightly- above average to above average

weight were expected to have more success with yori-based maneuvers than nage-division skills.

The reverse was expected for those rikishi of slightly-above average to above average height.

Finally, it is anticipated that at least one of the estimates of success will be consistent and

conclusive.

Methodology

The current forty-two makuuichi (top division, or literally, “inside the curtain”) ranked wrestlers
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were selected for this study. Of the forty-two, fifteen are of non-Japanese origin (ten Mongolians,

two Georgians, one Bulgarian, one Estonian and one Russian). Of the twenty eight remaining,

fourteen are from south-west Japan, six are from northern Japan, five are from central Japan, two

are from western Japan and one is from southern Japan. For age, the youngest subject is 22 years,

1 month, the oldest is 37 years, 2 months. All information was gathered from the International

Sumo Association website.

The quasi-independent variables used in this study were: height, weight and favorite technique

type. Height and weight were divided into three nominal categories: Average (within +1 standard

deviation from the mean), Average (within -1 standard deviation from the mean) and Non-

Average (outside +/- 1 standard deviation). Technique type was divided into two nominal

categories: yori and nage. There were three measures of success: number of wins (expressed by a

percentage), number of tournaments/special prizes won (i.e. the “fighting spirit” prize, the

“technique” prize, etc) and the time between initial debut and makuuichi debut (in months).

Statistical procedures used included one-way ANOVA’s, post-hoc tests, interaction comparisons

and simple main effects analyses.

Null hypotheses for the one-way ANOVA’s are:

Hwin percentage: µheight = µweight = µtechnique type

Htournaments/prizes: µheight = µweight = µtechnique type

Hmonths: µheight = µweight = µtechnique type

Null hypotheses for the interactions are:

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Hwin percentage: We predict that there will be no significant interaction between the factors

Htournaments/prizes: We predict that there will be no significant interaction between the factors

Hmonths: We predict that there will be no significant interaction between the factors

Results

To examine the influence of height, weight and technique, nine one-way ANOVA’s were

conducted, three for each measure of success. Descriptive statistics are provided below (Table 1).

All results were non-significant at the α =.05 level, with the exception of height on number of

months between initial debut and makuuichi debut, F(2, 39) = 3.882, p = .029. A graph is

included (Figure 1). Variance was also examined using Levene’s test, F(2, 39) = 3.558, p = .038,

and the result was significant.

Since the homogeneity of variance assumption was violated, a non-parametric ANOVA

alternative was selected; in this case, the Kruskal-Wallis test. The procedure was significant, Χ2

(2, N =42) = 7.964, p = .019. Thus, we can safely conclude there was significant difference

among the means of the three levels within “height”.

Follow-up tests were conducted to evaluate pairwise differences among the three levels.

Type I error was controlled for using Bonferroni’s sequential procedure. The results of these tests

indicated no significant difference between the levels of the “height” factor.

In summary thus far, the results yielded indicate that height has significant effect upon

how quickly a rikishi rises through the ranks of sumo. However, even with the use of post-hoc

tests, it is unclear what height range is required for such rapid progression.

Table 1.
Descriptive statistics for Height, Weight and Technique type
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Variable Variable Level Mean SD N
Height (cm) Average height 188.313 1.740 18
(within +1 SD)
Average height 182.777 1.996 16
(within -1 SD)
Non-Average 186.375 96.234 8
height (> -/+ 1 SD)
Total 185.286 6.06 42
Weight (kg) Average weight 163.67 3.71 20
(within +1 SD)
Average weight 148 4.739 14
(within -1 SD)
Non-Average 175.25 36.648 8
weight (> -/+ 1 SD)
Total 156.262 18.895 42
Technique Throw type (nage) 25
type
Push type (yori) 17
Total 42

Figure 1.
Height vs. number of months (DV = Number of months)

To ascertain the effect of the three quasi independent variables upon the three measures

of success, three 3x3 ANOVA’s and six 3x2 ANOVA’s were utilized. All results were non

significant, except one significant main effect for height in the height by favorite technique type
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with number of months as the dependent variable, F(2, 36) = 3.419, p = .044 and a significant

interaction between height and favorite technique type with win percentage as the dependent

variable, F(2, 36) = 5.329, p = .009.

Pairwise comparisons were then employed to examine the main effect for height. The

Tukey HSD procedure was used to control for Type I error. No significant differences were found

between the three levels of height.

To examine the interaction, custom hypothesis tests were used. Results yielded indicate

that there was a meaningful difference between Average height (within +1 standard deviation) and

Non-Average Height for “Throw” type wrestlers, using win percentage as a dependent variable,

as well as the same result for “Push” type wrestlers. A similar pattern was demonstrated between

Average height (within -1 standard deviation) and Non-Average height. Further custom

hypothesis tests also evinced the change in win percentage across technique type was

significantly different between Average height (within +1 std. deviation) and Non Average height.

Again, a similar pattern was observed with Average (within -1 std deviation). A graph has been

included (See Figure 2)

Regarding the interaction, the information yielded demonstrates that rikishi of non-

average height enjoyed a significantly higher degree of success using throw type maneuvers than

their shorter fellow competitors. Conversely, when using push type techniques, taller wrestlers

had a significantly lower rate of winning, and that this shift in performance, when compared to

the other groups, was of a noteworthy magnitude.

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Figure 2
A significant interaction between height & favorite technique type

Discussion
This study was conducted as an exploration into what characteristics of a rikishi are

associated with elite-level performance. The findings extracted from the data analysis are

inconclusive at best; in regards to the original research expectations, two of the three were

disproved, while minimal evidence was found for the remaining one.

The first expectation was concerned with single factors accounting for variation within

measures of success, and it was predicted that no single factor would influence any of the

measures significantly. However, it was found that height did impact upon the number of months;

those of Non-Average height progressed quicker through the sumo ranks then their shorter peers.

The author believes this can be explained through three premises: 1) the principles of torque

explained earlier 2) inexperience in dealing with taller opponents may account for some success

as well. However, since this result was not repeated across the other two measures of success, the

third premise seems more likely; that is, this study had some limitations that biased the results
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(see below).

The second expectation for this study was upheld, though in a limited fashion. Height and

technique type did produce a significant interaction. More specifically, those wrestlers designated

as Non-Average height enjoyed more success with nage, rather than yori techniques. Of the eight

wrestlers within the Non-Average category, six were more than 1 standard deviation above the

mean. From this, we can tentatively conclude that taller-than-average wrestlers are more

successful with throw type techniques. However, this trend was not repeated across any of the

other measures of success. Furthermore, there were no significant interactions for weight, so any

conclusions made are tenuous at best.

The third and final prediction for this study was also rejected. None of the measures

could reliably differentiate between more or less successful elite sumo. While this may be due to

characteristics inherent in the sample, a methodological error could account for these results;

since the author is not an expert on the subject, these measures may have been inappropriate

choices. Further investigation into this is warranted.

A major limitation of this study was the small sample size. While the sample was

representative of elite sumo wrestlers, it was not characteristic of sumo wrestlers as a group. The

elite sumo wrestlers diverge in a number of ways from lower-ranked rikishi; elites receive a

higher salary, have more time and opportunities to train, are excluded from many menial tasks

and receive more food (S.W.A, 1993). In contrast, elites are also subject to a variety of unique

adversities, ranging from a higher chance of public criticism to rapid rank loss or even expulsion.

These factors can directly or indirectly impact the success of an individual; as such, if the study

were redone, or a similar study initiated, then the sample would definitely have to include a

broader range of ranks.

A second limitation related to the first is the limited power of this study. Posthoc power

analysis revealed a large range of power values, ranging from .053 to 1.00. However, the majority
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of power values revealed were below .70, which is the standard for adequate power in research.

This is quite meaningful, as the data produced would lead us to reject almost all of the null

hypotheses within this study. However, it may be that there is a significant difference, but there is

no enough power present to detect it. This quandary is another reason to increase sample size in

the future.

Another limitation is that the cognitive component of the rikishi has not been addressed.

Sang-Hyop (2006) and Liu (2003) argue that beliefs in self-efficacy and the efficacy of others

play a vital role in how athletes perform when in the field. In addition, Liu mentions that the

spectators at a given sport event can also influence the athletes perceptions. This data would most

likely be a valuable source of information to any study concerning sumo performance success; by

not examining this characteristic, valuable influences may have been not been accounted for.

However, gathering this data would require a lot of time and effort that may be beyond the

resources available to some researchers.

A final limitation to note is that the sport of sumo is not without its imperfections. Using

econometrics, Duggan and Levitt (2002) concluded that match rigging occurred regularly within

sumo, and had been occurring for some time. If this is the case, this study may not be taking the

correct approach; rather than analyzing bodily characteristics and techniques, other constants

should be investigated (rank progression, increases in tenure, overturned win/loss decisions, etc),

as well as modifying or completely restructuring, incorporating different research questions as

needed.

In conclusion, this study aimed to shed insight into what influences performance amongst

elite rikishi, as well as asking what defines success in the sumo realm. Even though a minimally

significant data was found, the results are a may be helpful in guiding and informing future

investigators of this area. Research in the future should focus on obtaining a larger, more

representative sample and acquiring as much relevant data on individual sumo

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(physiological/cognitive) and sumo culture as possible before analysis.

References

Alegre, L.M., Anzar, D., Jiménex, F. & Aguado, X. (2005). Architectural characteristics

of vastus lateralis muscle and jump performance in young men. Journal of Human movement

studies, 48, 109-123.

Callister, R., Callister R.J., Staron, R.S., Fleck, S.J., Tesch, P. & Dudley, G.A. (1991).

Physiological characteristics of judo athletes. International journal of sports medicine, 12, (2),

196 -103.

Duggan, M. & Levitt, S. (2002). Winning isn’t everything: Corruption in Sumo. The

American Economic Review, 92, (5), 1594 – 1605.

Ekoe, J. (1989). Overview of diabetes mellitus and exercise. Medicine & Science in

Sports & Exercise, 21, (4), 353-355.

Liu, W. (2003). Field Dependence-Independence and Sports with a Preponderance of

closed or Open Skill. Journal of Sports Behavior, 26, (3), 285-297

Manyu, L., Dehuang, G., Carlos, M.I., Decio, L.E., Atkinsin, M., Jin-Xiong, S. & Cong-

Yi, W. (2005). SUMO wrestling with type 1 diabetes. Journal of molecular medicine, 83, (7),

504-513.

Masakatsu, K., Takashi, A., Shigeki, I., Yasuo K., Tetsuo, F. (1994). Upper limit of fat-
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free mass in humans: A study on Japanese Sumo wrestlers. American Journal of Human Biology,

6, (5), 613-618.

Sang-Hyop, L. (2006). Belief, Skills, and Winning: Evidence from Sumo Wrestling. Paer

presented at the Society of Labor Economists, 2006.

S.W.A. (1993). Sumo Watching. Tokyo, Japan: Yohan Publications.