Umer Mukhtar 2013-02-0492 Independent Study Ambassador Shehryar Khan 10 December, 2012

Pakistan India Water Crisis

Civilizations around rivers and major water sources have developed and flourished historically. Egyptian society was dependent on Nile, Mesopotamian civilization found its development from Tigris and Euphrates. Hong Kong, New york and Paris also owe a part of their success to easy access of water resources. Water is considered an integral asset for any country. But for agricultural economies it is of huge importance since their economy is totally dependent on water. Pakistan and India being agricultural economies thus have an immense importance for water. They share 65 years long undulating history. Two of the very important and pressing issues among both the countries include Water and Kashmir which find their inception at the time of partition. Kashmir has always been subject to hostility from both sides and considered as an integral part of them. Two wars have been fought over this issue as well. However, the water issue was solved relatively peacefully in 1960 with Indus Water Treaty between both countries. The study will look at reasons lying for Indus water Treaty followed by problems arising immediately and later on and conclude with the recommendations for both countries over conflict management. A popular belief in Pakistan is on the rise that India is trying its level best to destroy Pakistan through its water bomb by controlling the water flow of Pakistani rivers. Agriculture sector will be the one most affected by building of reservoirs and electric generation units over Pakistani rivers; hence it is the most active participant in protests and concerns. The water issue is of extreme importance for two reasons, one being the agricultural economy of

Pakistan and second being the source of water from Jammu & Kashmir. Political leaders, religious ulemas, nationalists have taken this opportunity to raise their voices against anti -India sentiment that is being imparted in the nation from several decades. Hamid Gul states aggressively that India has stopped our water while Ayaz Mir stated that Insisting o n our water rights with regard to India must be one of the cornerstones of our foreign policy. Hence it shows us the issue being moving towards a greater impact rather than just a water crisis with India. (Haq) The real issue started in 1947 with the separation of two states when a disagreement surfaced over the river water sharing. The British left the region with no proper demarcation of river water sharing or a formula which resulted in increased tensions between the two states. The issue was of extreme importance to Pakistan since all the headworks of rivers were in Indian Punjab and all of them except Indus and Sutlej originated from Indian Occupied Kashmir. On 30 Dec, 1947 both the countries signed Standstill Agreement which stated that the already in place water turn systems at Ferozpur (on Sutlej) and Madhopur (on Ravi) will continue till 31 March, 1948. Things sailed smoothly until 1 April, 1948 when India immediately stopped the water supply through Madhopur headwork which affected almost 6% of Pakistans irrigated area. Pakistan trembled at the closure of water from India since its pertinent to is survival hence the bilateral talks took place at Shimla on 15 April, 1948 and two agreements were signed. The two agreements were related to Central Doab Canal and Depalpur Canal and Pakistani government agreed to pay maintenance costs, seigniorage costs and interest. Indian government in its defense states that such charges were levied on Bikaner state by Punjab in British Raj. Liaquat Ali Khan disapproved of these agreements and went to Delhi at Inter Dominion Conference on 3 May, 1948 to seek out a new treaty. Water was released after negotiations but India didnt withdraw

from its claim of seigniorage charges. Pakistan was of the point of view that since these rivers are oxygen to its survival hence the rivers are in its ownership whereas Indian government maintained the stance that since these rivers originated from India hence they are in the ownership of India. Pakistan stopped paying the seigniorage charges on July, 1950 maintaining the stance that the rivers are its due right. (Sridhar) David Lilienthal, former chairman of Atomic Energy Commission of USA conducted research in 1951 and wrote of series of articles to be published in Colliers magazine. Among his articles he wrote the potential threat of water crisis and proposed that it shall be very beneficial for the region if two arch enemies jointly cooperate and develop Indus Basin river system, the system on which irrigation system of both the countries is dependent on. He also suggested that World Bank can depute its officers and overlook whole agreement process and finance the Indus development program. Impressed by the article and proposals made by David, Eugene R. Black, President of World Bank, took a visit to both the countries and proposed a joint committee of India, Pakistan and World Bank to solve the issue Technically rather than Politically . The neighbors welcomed the initiative with open hands and submitted their plans on 6 October, 1953. According to Indian Plan, it should be given all of the eastern rivers and 7% of the western rivers water whereas on the contrary Pakistan proposed that it should be given all the western rivers and 70% of eastern rivers water. Strenuous and prolonged negotiations took place but nothing could be agreed on by both the arties due to huge differences in the plans submitted. (Sridhar) World Bank finally stepped in after watching that the agreement by both parties seemed impossible and offered three eastern rivers to Indian and three western rivers to Pakistan. Pakistan was asked to build its own canals, reservoirs and barrages to compensate for the water loss by eastern rivers and India was asked to pay for the Financial Liability due to loss of eastern

water. India was to pay a sum of $63 million within 10 years of equal installments and a consortium of donors promised Pakistan payment of $ 900million to build its assets. Finally the treaty was signed between Nehru and Ayub Khan on September 1960 but it was considered effective from 1st April, 1960. According to treaty Pakistan built two dams, five barrages, one siphon and seven link canals. With the successful completion of these projects, Indus Water treaty is considered as one of the successful treaties in the world despite opposition from within Pakistan of being a loser. It managed to solve the dispute over worlds largest irrigation system, irrigating about 20 million hectors of area. The main clauses of treaty are as follow: 1. Possession of three eastern rivers Ravi, Sutlej and Beas, to India. 2. Possession of three western rivers Indus, Jhelum and Chenab to Pakistan. 3. Pakistan to build replacement structures over its rivers to meet the loss of eastern rivers water. 4. Regular exchange of flow data of canals, rivers etc. 5. Setting up of Permanent Indus Water commission to look after all the matters and conflicts 6. India partly allowed using Western Rivers water to irrigate 1,345,000 acres. 7. India can build structures for non-consumptive purposes over western rivers. 8. Disputes, differences and questions to be addresses according to given SOPs bilaterally and if not possible then via International Court of Arbitration. (Ahmad) Indus Water Treaty is although considered as a success story among international community but in the recent past several issues have risen up which have led to tensions between both the

countries. The treaty, though, has been intact through 1965, 1971, Operation Gibraltar and Kargil wars. The issues include Wuller barrage, kishan Ganga dam, Baglihar dam etc. The Wuller Barrage issue started in 1985 when India started to build a 435 feet long barrage at Wuller Lake, biggest artificial lake at Indian Occupied Kashmir. Indian stance on the matter was to provide navigation from Sopore to Baramula towns during winter season while Pakistan maintains the stance that the barrage damages its project of linking Jhelum and Chenab to upper Bari Doab Canal and India cant store water more than 0.01 MAF. India replies back and states that the project will help in regular flow of water in Jhelum and also help in Mangla Dam. The objection came from Pakistan in 1987 and the work halted. The issue since then is unresolved. The second problem arose was of Kishanganga Dam. India is building Kishanganga dam on the basis of the fact that it shall divert water from Kishanganga River to Wuller Lake where a hydro power station will produce electricity. The project started in 1994 but was objected by Pakistan that its Nelum Jhelum Power plants capacity will be reduced by 9%. The Kishanganga dam was to be built just before LoC onto Nelum River and a 30kms long tunnel from north Kashmir to Wuller Lake, thus disturbing the flow of water and in turn affecting the production capacity of Nelum-Jhelum hydro power plant. India on the other hand responds that the water will ultimately enter Pakistan through Jhelum River, though it would affect Nelum-Jhelum power project but Pakistan will get all of its water. The matter is still not resolved. Third conflict was that of Salal project which was the only conflict resolved bilaterally. The issue was resolved by Bhutto and Janata Party government through successful but intense negotiations of four years from 1974 to 1978. No water was diverted by India and water is provided to Pakistan in a regulated manner. Pakistan successfully managed to advocate its case of decreasing the height of spill way gates, though it decreased the power capacity of the project. (Sridhar)

The recent and most known conflict is that of Baglihar Dam. Indian started building a dam 470 feet in height to store 15 million cubic meters of water and maintained a stance that its a hydroelectric power project with run-of-the-river rules and regulations. Pakistan objected that India can stop Pakistani water for more than 3 weeks if it desires due to submerged spillways and can increase its capacity in future. There is a huge risk of flooding as well if the water is released suddenly and Pakistan loses 7000-8000 cusecs of water per day. The matter was taken to World Bank and it appointed Lafitte to look over and resolve the conflict. He asked for 14% reduction in height of dam some changes in flow control structures. Though Pakistan had reservations about the decision but both countries chose to accept it and the matter was closed. Recent bilateral talks have shown improvement in relations and both the countries vow to solve the matters according to Indus Water Treaty. It is important to note that Pakistan and India are arch enemies of each other and feel threatened by each other at all times. Building of dams and reservoirs is also a security threat for Pakistans Defense system. Controlling water flow means that at times of war India can stop the water supply so as its army can cross rivers and enter Pakistan easily and let Pakistan die on economic terms by not providing it its water. Nawaz Shareef in 1998 also stated that the issues of water and Kashmir must be resolved as early as possible so that the clouds of war between Pakistan and India can be eliminated forever." (Haq) It is for the benefit of both the countries to respect the 1960 accord and live by its rules and regulations. Rather than conflict, its always better to solve matters by bilateral talks. A neutral expert can be appointed in order to make matters more clear and clean. It is also important for Pakistan to note that not only India is somewhat responsible for water flow disturbance but Pakistan by its own self as well. Pakistan needs to understand that it needs to build more dams

and reservoirs to stop the 13 million cubic meters of water wasted by going into Arabian Sea. rather than always blaming it on Indians and believing on conspiracy theories, Pakistan needs to build its own resources and assets so that it doesnt have to totally rely on India, even if India stops the water at times of war, Pakistan should have a water storage adequate enough to fulfill its needs. Secondly, due to global warming, the dynamics of world environment is changing; it is also affecting Pakistan as well. Rains are predicted to be far less in Pakistan in the coming years thus steps should be taken to counter the effects so as they may not harm Pakistan to their maximum extent.

References:
Sridhar, Subrahmanyam. "The Indus Water Treaty." Bharat Rakshak. Bharat-Rakshak . Web. 16 Dec 2012. <http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/SRR/Volume13/sridhar.html Ahmad, Ishtiaq. "an important article on water crisis in pakistan." 16 2011. Civil Service of Pakistan, Online Posting to CSS Forums. Web. 16 Dec. 2012. <http://www.cssforum.com.pk/css-compulsory-subjects/pakistan-affairs/54147-importantarticle-water-crisis-pakistan.html>. Haq, Noor. "PAKISTANS WATER CONCERNS."Islamabad Policy Research Institute. IPRIPAK. Web. 16 Dec 2012. <http://ipripak.org/factfiles/ff127.pdf>. Blue, Kool. "NATURE OF WATER CRISIS IN PAKISTAN & A POTENTIAL WAY OUT."KoolBlue's Blog. Wordpress, 15 2010. Web. Web. 16 Dec. 2012. <http://koolblue.wordpress.com/2010/06/15/nature-of-water-crisis-in-pakistan-a-potential-wayout/>. Dawn, . "Water crisis in South Asia." Dawn [Lahore] 16 Jul 2012, n. pag. Web. 16 Dec. 2012. <http://dawn.com/2012/07/16/water-crisis-in-south-asia/>. Sarwar, Mansur. "PAKISTAN: WATER CRISIS AND A POTENTIAL WAY OUT Part III." Opinion Maker. Opinion Maker, 27 2010. Web. 16 Dec 2012. <http://www.opinionmaker.org/2010/05/pakistan-water-crisis-and-a-potential-way-out--part-iii/>. Musharaf , Zahoor. "Water Crisis & Strategic Stability In South Asia." Diplomatic Circle. Diplomatic Circle. Web. 16 Dec 2012. <http://www.diplomaticcircle.com/July11_Articles/July11_water_crisis.php>.