DAILY IFOREX REPORT

09th SEP 2013

HEADLINES
Foreign Exchange Daily Market Update

As expected yesterday the Bank of England and the ECB both kept their base interest rates at the current level of 0.5%. There was also better than expected news from the US where the weekly jobless claims were released; the figure fell by more than expected, from 332K to 323K.

GBP/USD GBP/EUR EUR/USD GBPAUD GBP/CAD GBP/CHF GBP/CZK GBP/DKK GBP/HKD GBP/INR GBP/JPY GBP/NOK GBP/NZD GBP/PLN GBP/SEK GBP/SGD GBP/THB GBP/TRY GBP/ZAR GBP/CNY

1.5578 1.1819 1.3173 1.7348 1.6413 1.4580 30.365 8.814 12.076 104.98 155.09 9.461 1.9920 5.0356 10.283 1.9852 49.94 3.175 16.009 9.603

Today will be a very important day for data release in the US as the change in non farm payrolls will be out. The change of the amount of people in employment for the month of August is expected to rise from 162K to 180K which could have a bearish effect on the GBPUSD rate. From the UK later we have the release of the NIESR GDP estimate which is a highly respected figure, one that can influence monetary policy.

Forex Forecast: Volatility Threatens Market Stability Ahead of Fed Taper

US Dollar Risks Breakdown Before the Feds Taper Decision Trading conditions are growing dangerous not because a particular currency or asset classes is threatening an unfavorable turn; but rather because there are alluring technical setups that are likely to fall apart almost immediately after they trigger. That is particularly true for many of the dollar-based pairings.

Euro Forecast - Huge Event Risk Didnt Break Euro so What Will? A sharply disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls report was supposed to be enough to send the US Dollar to fresh lows versus the Euro, but the EURUSD finished the week almost exactly where it began. What gives?

TRADING TIPS
BUY EURUSD ABOVE 1.3190 TGT 1.3210/1.3230 SL 1.3160

British Pound Forecast - GBPUSD Preserves Bullish Trend on BoE Policy with Key Resistance Ahead The British Pound tracked higher during the first full week of September, with the GBPUSD climbing to a high of 1.5680, but the bullish trend may be coming to an end as the pair comes up against key

SELL USDJPY BELOW 98.80 TGT 98.60/98.30 SL 99.10

BUY GBPUSD ABOVE 1.5600 TGT 1.5620/1.5650 SL 1.5570

 HOURLY EURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0003(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 60(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.10(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>37(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>54(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS EURGBP LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>52(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USD INDEX CHART

ANALYSIS USD INDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0001(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>34(BEARISH SIGNAL)

ECONOMIC CALLENDER
Date
Sun Sep 1

Time

Currency

Event

Importance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Notes

01:00

CNY Manufacturing PMI NZD Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (2Q) GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (AUG) GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (AUG) AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (AUG) JPY Capital Spending (2Q) JPY Capital Spending excl Software (2Q) JPY Company Profits (2Q) JPY Company Sales (2Q) AUD RPData/Rismark House Px (AUG) AUD TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (AUG) AUD TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (AUG) AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (JUL) AUD Building Approvals (YoY) (JUL) AUD Company Operating Profit (QoQ) (2Q) AUD Inventories (2Q) CNY HSBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI (AUG) JPY Vehicle Sales (YoY) (AUG) AUD RBA Commodity Index (AUG) AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (AUG) CHF PMI Manufacturing (AUG) EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (AUG)

Medium

51.0

50.6

50.3

22:45

Medium

4.9%

3.8%

4.2%

23:01

Low

0.4%

0.3%

23:01

Low

1.8%

1.3%

23:30

Medium

46.4

42.0

23:50

Medium

0.0%

-2.1%

-3.9%

23:50

Medium

1.4%

-3.8%

-5.2%

23:50

Low

24.0%

6.0%

23:50

Low

-0.5%

-5.8%

Mon Sep 2

00:00

Low

0.5%

1.6%

00:30

Low

0.1%

0.5%

00:30

Low

2.1%

2.7%

01:30

Low

10.8%

4.0%

-6.3%

01:30

Low

28.3%

20.0%

-11.8%

01:30

Low

-0.8%

0.9%

3.5%

01:30

Low

0.2%

0.1%

-0.5%

01:45

Medium

50.1

50.2

47.7

05:00

Low

-6.4%

-13.5%

06:30

Low

94.3

91.8

06:30

Low

-7.3%

9.7%

07:30

Low

54.6

56.0

57.4

07:45

Low

51.3

50.8

50.4

07:50

EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (AUG F) EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (AUG F) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (AUG F) GBP BoE Publishes Data on Funding for Lending GBP Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (AUG) EUR Schaeuble Briefs on Greek Aid Package 3 EUR ECB's Coeure Speaks in Berlin on OMT Proram GBP BoE Governor Mark Carney Press Briefing Before G20 Summit GBP BRC Sales LikeFor-Like (YoY) (AUG) JPY Monetary Base (YoY) (AUG) JPY Monetary Base End of period (AUG) GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (AUG) GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (AUG)

Low

49.7

49.7

49.7

07:55

Medium

51.8

52.0

52.0

08:00

Medium

51.4

51.3

51.3

08:30

Medium

08:30

Medium

57.2

55.0

54.8

09:00

Medium

11:20

Low

11:30

Medium

23:01

Low

2.4%

2.2%

23:50

Medium

38%

23:50

Low

173.3T

Tue Sep 3

Low

5.6%

4.6%

Low

0.8%

0.9%

01:00

CNY Nonmanufacturing PMI (AUG) NZD ANZ Commodity Price (AUG) AUD Current Account Balance (Australian Dollar) (2Q) AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (JUL) AUD Net Exports of GDP (2Q) JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (JUL) AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (SEP 3) CHF Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q) CHF Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q) GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction (AUG)

Medium

54.1

01:00

Low

0.6%

01:30

Medium

-8.5B

-8.5B

01:30

Medium

0.4%

0.0%

01:30

Low

0.1

01:30

Low

0.6%

04:30
LIVE

High

2.5%

2.5%

05:45

High

1.7%

1.2%

05:45

Medium

0.3%

0.6%

08:30

Medium

56.9

57.0

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (JUL) EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) USD Markit US PMI Final (AUG) USD ISM Manufacturing (AUG) USD Construction Spending (MoM) (JUL) USD ISM Prices Paid (AUG) USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (SEP) USD EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (2Q) NZD Value of All Buildings s.a. (QoQ) (AUG) GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (AUG) AUD AiG Performance of Service Index (AUG) AUD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q) AUD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q) CNY HSBC/Markit Services PMI (AUG) EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services (AUG) EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (AUG F) EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (AUG F) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (AUG F) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (AUG F) GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services (AUG) GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (AUG) EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (2Q P) EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (2Q P) EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (JUL)

Low

0.1%

0.0%

09:00

Low

0.1%

0.3%

12:58

Medium

54.0

14:00

High

54

55.4

14:00

Medium

0.3%

-0.6%

14:00

Medium

51.2

49

14:00

Low

46

45.1

21:00

Low

22:45

Low

5.8%

23:01

Low

-0.5%

23:30

Medium

39.4

Wed Sep 4

01:30
LIVE

High

0.6%

0.6%

01:30
LIVE

High

2.5%

2.5%

01:45

Medium

51.3

07:45

Low

48.7

07:50

Low

47.7

47.7

07:55

Medium

52.4

52.4

08:00

Medium

51.7

51.7

08:00

Medium

51

51

08:30

Medium

59

60.2

08:30

Low

$1672M

09:00

High

0.3%

0.3%

09:00

High

-0.7%

-0.7%

09:00

Medium

-0.3%

-0.9%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Government Expenditure (QoQ) (2Q P) EUR Euro-Zone Gross Fixed Capital (QoQ) (2Q P) EUR Euro-Zone Household Consumption (QoQ) (2Q P) EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL) USD MBA Mortgage Applications (AUG 30) USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (AUG) USD Trade Balance (JUL) CAD International Merchandise Trade (Canadian dollar) (JUL) USD ISM New York (AUG) CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision (SEP 4) USD Fed's Williams Speaks on Monetary Policy in Oregon USD US Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book USD Domestic Vehicle Sales (AUG) USD Total Vehicle Sales (AUG) JPY BOJ 2014 Monetary Base Target (SEP 5) JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (SEP 5) USD Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks in Wisconsin AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (JUL) EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (JUL) EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (JUL) GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (SEP 5) GBP BoE Asset Purchase Target (SEP) EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (SEP 5) EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate (SEP 5)

Low

-0.1%

09:00

Low

-1.6%

09:00

Low

0.1%

09:00

Low

0.4%

-0.5%

11:00

Low

-2.5%

11:30

Low

2.3%

12:30

Medium

-$38.6B

-$34.2B

12:30

Low

-0.40B

-0.47B

13:45

Low

67.8

14:00

High

1.00%

1.00%

16:30

Low

18:00

High

21:00

Low

12.20M

12.09M

21:00

Low

15.80M

15.60M

Thu Sep 5

High

270T

High

00:00

Low

01:30

Medium

100M

602M

10:00

Medium

2.7%

4.3%

10:00

Low

-1.0%

3.8%

11:00
LIVE

High

0.5%

0.5%

11:00
LIVE

High

375B

375B

11:45
LIVE

High

0.5%

0.5%

11:45
LIVE

Medium

0.0%

0.0%

12:15

USD ADP Employment Change (AUG) USD Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 31) USD Continuing Claims (AUG 24) USD Non-Farm Productivity (2Q F) USD Unit Labor Costs (2Q F) USD Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks in Wisconsin USD Factory Orders (JUL) USD ISM NonManufacutring Composite (AUG) USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (AUG 30) USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (AUG 30) USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (AUG 30) AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (AUG) JPY Official Reserve Assets (AUG) GBP New Car Registrations (YoY) (AUG)

Medium

180K

200K

12:30

Medium

330K

331K

12:30

Low

2989K

12:30

Low

1.5%

0.9%

12:30

Low

1.0%

1.4%

13:00

Low

14:00

Medium

-3.50%

1.50%

14:00

Medium

55

56

15:00

Low

2986K

15:00

Low

-316K

15:00

Low

-587K

23:30

Medium

44.1

23:50

Low

$1254.0B

Fri Sep 6

Low

12.7%

05:00

JPY Bank of Japan's Monthly Economic Report for September JPY Coincident Index (JUL P) JPY Leading Index (JUL P) EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (JUL) EUR German Current Account (euros) (JUL) EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (JUL) EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (JUL) EUR German Labor Costs s.a. (QoQ) (2Q) EUR German Labor Costs w.d.a. (YoY) (2Q) AUD Foreign Reserves (Australian dollar) (AUG)

Medium

05:00

Medium

106.9

105.5

05:00

Medium

107.9

107.2

06:00

Medium

16.3B

16.9B

06:00

Low

14.0B

17.3B

06:00

Low

0.8%

0.6%

06:00

Low

0.7%

-0.8%

06:00

Low

1.1%

06:00

Low

3.9%

06:30

Low

A$55.5B

07:00

CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (AUG) CHF CPI EU Harmonized (YoY) (AUG) CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG) CHF Industrial Production (YoY) (2Q) CHF CPI EU Harmonized (MoM) (AUG) CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM) (AUG) GBP BoE/GfK Inflation Next 12 Mths (AUG) GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL) GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (JUL) GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (JUL) GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (JUL) GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (JUL) GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) (JUL) GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (JUL) EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (JUL) EUR German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (JUL) USD Fed's Evans Speaks in South Carolina CAD Net Change in Employment (AUG) CAD Unemployment Rate (AUG) USD Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (AUG) USD Unemployment Rate (AUG) CAD Full Time Employment Change (AUG) USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (AUG) USD Change in Private Payrolls (AUG)

Low

434.9B

07:15

Medium

0.5%

07:15

Medium

0.0%

0.0%

07:15

Medium

3.0%

07:15

Low

0.0%

07:15

Low

0.0%

-0.4%

08:30

Medium

3.6%

08:30

Medium

-1.7%

1.2%

08:30

Medium

-0.7%

2.0%

08:30

Medium

-1700

-1548

08:30

Low

0.0%

1.1%

08:30

Low

0.3%

1.9%

08:30

Low

-2950

-2646

08:30

Low

-8200

-8082

10:00

Medium

0.6%

2.0%

10:00

Low

-0.5%

2.4%

12:00

Low

12:30

High

30.0K

-39.4K

12:30

High

7.2%

7.2%

12:30
LIVE

High

180K

162K

12:30
LIVE

High

7.4%

7.4%

12:30

Medium

-18.3

12:30

Medium

2.0%

1.9%

12:30

Medium

175K

161K

12:30

USD Labor Force Participation Rate (AUG) USD Underemployment Rate (AUG) CAD Part Time Employment Change (AUG) CAD Participation Rate (AUG) USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (AUG) USD Average Weekly Hours All Employees (AUG) USD Change in Household Employment (AUG) USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (AUG) USD Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (AUG) GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (AUG) CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a. (AUG) USD Fed's George Speaks on the Economy in Nebraska

Medium

63.4%

12:30

Medium

14.0%

12:30

Low

-21.2

12:30

Low

66.5

12:30

Low

0.2%

-0.1%

12:30

Low

34.5

34.4

12:30

Low

227K

12:30

Low

5K

6K

12:30

Low

14:00

High

0.7%

14:00

Medium

54

48.4

17:30

Low

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