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Major climate research centres now accept that there has been a pause in global w arming since 1997. Photo: ALAMY
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There has been a 60 per cent increase in the amount of ocean covered with ice compared to this time last year, they equivalent of almost a million square miles. In a rebound from 2012's record low an unbroken ice sheet more than half the size of Europe already stretches from the Canadian islands to Russia's northern shores, days before the annual re-freeze is even set to begin. The Northwest Passage from the Atlantic to the Pacific has remained blocked by pack-ice all year, forcing some ships to change their routes. A leaked report to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) seen by the Mail on Sunday, has led some scientists to claim that the world is heading for a period of cooling that will not end until the middle of this century. If correct, it would contradict computer forecasts of imminent catastrophic warming. The news comes several years after the BBC predicted that the arctic would be ice-free by 2013.
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Despite the original forecasts, major climate research centres now accept that there has been a pause in global warming since 1997. The original predictions led to billions being invested in green measures to combat the effects of climate change. The changing predictions have led to the UN's climate change's body
holding a crisis meeting, and the the IPCC is due to report on the situation in October. A pre-summit meeting will be held later this month. But the leaked documents are said to show that the governments who fund the IPCC are demanding 1,500 changes to the Fifth Assessment Report - a three-volume study issued every six or seven years as they claim its current draft does not properly explain the pause. The extent to which temperatures will rise with carbon dioxide levels and how much of the warming over the past 150 years, a total of 0.8C, is down to human greenhouse gas emissions are key issues in the debate. The IPCC says it is 95 per cent confident that global warming has been caused by humans - up from 90 per cent in 2007 according to the draft report. However, US climate expert Professor Judith Curry has questioned how this can be true as that rather than increasing in confidence, uncertainty is getting bigger within the academic community. Long-term cycles in ocean temperature, she said, suggest the world may be approaching a period similar to that from 1965 to 1975, when there was a clear cooling trend. At the time some scientists forecast an imminent ice age. Professor Anastasios Tsonis, of the University of Wisconsin, said: "We are already in a cooling trend, which I think will continue for the next 15 years at least. There is no doubt the warming of the 1980s and 1990s has stopped. The IPCC is said to maintain that their climate change models suggest a pause of 15 years can be expected. Other experts agree that natural cycles cannot explain all of the recorded warming.
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Now swap the word 'supporters' for 'sceptics'... I don't know what the truth is but I guarantee 99.999% of the commentators here don't know either.
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Timmah_timmah
Recommended by 3
15 minutes ago
This article and the comments only prove ONE thing - Those that have taken sides in the debate will NOT be swayed one way or the other! Sad really. Agendas are being pushed involving tons of MONEY on both sides. Real, honest, scientific, fact-based debate is being muddied with spin, red herrings, mis-directions, false associations, and blatant lies. Climate science is far too complex to shrink down into a few hundred words or a short 3 minute TV piece. Entire BOOKS are written to explain these concepts! These things evolve over DECADES, not hours. Oversimplifying them doesn't do anyone any good at all. I personally believe Governments should NOT make such an aggressive attempt to be "proactive" or "preventative" in these things. We need to let them play out and ADAPT as we go. We must be vigilant and willing to adapt QUICKLY. But attempting to be "proactive" is questionable at best. We SHOULD educate and encourage - even Incentivize - conservation, but mandating it and penalizing for it is not the way. We MUST encourage science to develop more clean tech and ways to isolate and reduce pollutants. We Do NOT need carbon taxes and cutting our nose to spite our face. We also DON'T need to be fighting each other instead of observing what is happening and ACTING!
Stoica_Andreea
38 minutes ago
I think many of us suspected, there is a natural cycle of warming and cooling. Manmade climate change is a load of green crap. http://tiny.cc/w2g42w
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As a trained statistician, I can say with confidence (little statistical punnery), that it's complex and not reducible to a 400 word article in a general news publication. You can pick at your favorite political conspiracy theory as much as you like, but I doubt you're getting anywhere nearer an understanding of the science involved.
I think good news, at least it will stop the AGW numpties banging on about our half-decent summer being evidence for their ludicrous fantasy. http://bit.ly/1c6977p
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