The US Consumer Credit and the Disposable Personal Income

by Eduardo Petazze
Last Updated: May 7, 2015
The total outstanding credit continues to grow at a relatively steady pace, despite the revolving credit remains relatively unchanged.
In March 2015 the outstanding level consumer credit grew to an annualized rate of 7.6% from the previous month (or 7.0% from March 2014)
In Mar15 the level of consumer credit reached the highest proportion over Personal Consumption Expenditures: 27.66%, just one percentage point higher the
value reached in March 2014.
In the first quarter of 2015, the level of consumer credit grew at an annualized rate of 5.4% over the previous quarter (or + 6.9% from 1Q2014)
Interestingly, the savings rate of Americans has increased to 5.47% on average in 1Q2015, compared to 4.9% in 1Q2014 and 4.58% in 4Q2014.
At the end of Dec15 it is expected that the level of outstanding consumer credit resulting 5.8% higher than in Dec14 (which had grown by 7.1% YoY)
The following table shows the monthly evolution of Consumer Credit Outstanding and compared with data from Personal Income and Outlays in the U.S.
Press release: current pdf, 3 pages

Date

Total,
NSA
2,384.6
2,511.9
2,632.3
2,573.1
2,509.6
2,676.0
2,817.0
2,991.1
3,192.2
3,406.5
3,620.2

Consumer Credit Outstanding (Levels)

Annual Level Average Bn USD
Flows
Total,
Non
Total,
YoY
YoY Revolving
SA
revolving
SA
6.01% 2,413.0 7.29%
900.2
1,512.8 163.9
5.34% 2,540.1 5.27%
961.3
1,578.9 127.1
4.79% 2,660.3 4.73%
1,016.1
1,644.2 120.2
-2.25% 2,600.8 -2.24%
962.3
1,638.5 -59.5
-2.47% 2,537.0 -2.45%
876.1
1,660.9 -63.8
6.63% 2,703.2 6.55%
836.9
1,866.4 166.2
5.27% 2,844.0 5.21%
844.1
1,999.9 140.7
6.18% 3,017.7 6.11%
852.7
2,165.0 173.8
6.72% 3,218.6 6.66%
875.5
2,343.1 200.9
6.71% 3,406.5 5.84%
873.0
2,533.5 187.9
6.27% 3,620.2 6.27%
900.6
2,719.6 213.7

Total,
NSA
3,114.1
3,102.1
3,105.0
3,130.6
3,152.3
3,171.9
3,192.3
3,230.2
3,249.0
3,260.5
3,279.9
3,318.1
3,328.0
3,315.3
3,321.0
3,359.7
3,372.4
3,388.2
3,405.1
3,445.3
3,463.4
3,474.3
3,493.8
3,511.6

Level - Billions of dollars

Flows
[Billions of dollars; months seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Total ,
MoM
Non
Total,
Net
Consumer
Other
Saving, %
YoY
Revolving
PCE
Saving
SA
annual
revolving
SA
income
credit, % PCE
payments Net Income
5.99% 3,114.1 6.06%
859.7
2,254.3
15.2 12,698.5 11,663.9
26.70%
617.3
417.3
4.86%
5.88% 3,129.5 6.13%
859.7
2,269.8
15.5 12,771.3 11,714.3
26.72%
638.6
418.4
5.00%
6.21% 3,147.3 7.03%
860.9
2,286.4
17.8 12,849.0 11,807.1
26.66%
622.4
419.5
4.84%
6.66% 3,174.0 10.66%
870.9
2,303.1
26.7 12,891.7 11,825.2
26.84%
648.4
418.1
5.03%
6.73% 3,193.3 7.56%
873.2
2,320.1
19.3 12,943.2 11,864.3
26.92%
660.1
418.8
5.10%
6.93% 3,211.8 7.15%
875.8
2,336.0
18.4 13,000.7 11,922.6
26.94%
658.4
419.7
5.06%
7.12% 3,233.3 8.34%
880.4
2,352.8
21.5 13,028.6 11,944.3
27.07%
658.1
426.2
5.05%
7.01% 3,249.4 6.15%
881.4
2,367.9
16.1 13,068.4 12,016.9
27.04%
620.4
431.1
4.75%
6.98% 3,267.5 6.89%
883.4
2,384.0
18.1 13,086.5 12,044.6
27.13%
606.0
435.9
4.63%
6.92% 3,284.1 6.29%
884.6
2,399.5
16.6 13,123.2 12,096.5
27.15%
586.9
439.8
4.47%
7.09% 3,301.0 6.34%
885.9
2,415.0
16.9 13,163.8 12,142.2
27.19%
581.5
440.1
4.42%
7.08% 3,318.1 6.41%
890.0
2,428.1
17.1 13,204.1 12,122.0
27.37%
641.8
440.3
4.86%
6.87% 3,328.0 3.63%
887.5
2,440.5
9.9 13,254.5 12,086.3
27.54%
722.3
445.9
5.45%
6.87% 3,342.8 5.46%
885.1
2,457.7
14.8 13,315.8 12,107.1
27.61%
758.6
450.1
5.70%
6.96% 3,363.3 7.62%
889.4
2,473.9
20.5 13,317.4 12,160.5
27.66%
702.6
454.3
5.28%
7.32% 3,364.6 0.46%
872.0
2,492.7
1.3 13,383.0 12,223.0
27.53%
710.0
450.0
5.31%
6.98% 3,375.2 3.85%
864.3
2,510.9
10.6 13,443.0 12,273.0
27.50%
721.0
449.0
5.36%
6.82% 3,389.7 5.30%
861.6
2,528.1
14.5 13,504.0 12,325.0
27.50%
730.0
449.0
5.41%
6.67% 3,407.8 6.58%
862.5
2,545.3
18.1 13,551.0 12,361.0
27.57%
739.0
451.0
5.45%
6.66% 3,423.6 5.69%
863.2
2,560.4
15.8 13,594.0 12,414.0
27.58%
725.0
455.0
5.33%
6.60% 3,440.1 5.97%
864.5
2,575.6
16.6 13,627.0 12,452.0
27.63%
716.0
459.0
5.25%
6.56% 3,457.2 6.11%
865.9
2,591.3
17.1 13,663.0 12,496.0
27.67%
703.0
464.0
5.15%
6.52% 3,474.2 6.06%
866.9
2,607.3
17.0 13,700.0 12,541.0
27.70%
692.0
467.0
5.05%
5.83% 3,511.6 13.72%
893.0
2,618.6
37.4 13,739.0 12,554.0
27.97%
717.0
468.0
5.22%

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Latest data
Own estimate
Date

Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Latest data
Own estimate

Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly

[Billions of dollars; months seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Net
Consumer
Other
Saving, %
PCE
Saving
income
credit, % PCE
payments Net Income
10,036.9
9,304.0
25.93%
329.5
403.4
3.28%
10,507.0
9,750.5
26.05%
310.3
446.2
2.95%
10,994.4 10,013.6
26.57%
542.3
438.5
4.93%
10,942.5
9,847.0
26.41%
672.0
423.5
6.14%
11,237.9 10,202.2
24.87%
628.0
407.6
5.59%
11,801.4 10,689.3
25.29%
711.2
400.9
6.03%
12,384.0 11,083.1
25.66%
896.2
404.7
7.24%
12,505.1 11,484.3
26.28%
608.1
412.7
4.86%
12,985.8 11,930.3
26.98%
628.3
427.1
4.84%
13,507.6 12,332.7
27.62%
719.7
455.2
5.33%
14,038.0 12,745.8
28.40%
809.5
482.8
5.77%

Note: the projected data do not take into account possible changes of relevant variables such as interest rates.