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Best Foot Forward Ltd. 9 Newtec Place, Magdalen Road, Oxford OX4 1RE E-mail: mail@bestfootforward.com Web: www.bestfootforward.com Tel: 01865 250818 Fax: 01865 794586 Company Registration 3409491
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Summary
The following summary provides headline figures of the analysis completed by Best Foot Forward. The provenance of datapoints and calculations undertaken are contained in the body of the report and attached appendices. Emissions arising from driving a Polo Bluemotion (99gCO2/vkm) the estimated average UK private car distance estimated for 2007 (13,222 km) would equate to 1,309 kg CO2 in 2007. Emissions arising from driving an average UK new car 13,222 km and applying CO2 emissions reductions for 2007 derived from the UK new car reduction rate of 2005-2006 (165g/vkm), equate to 2,182 kgCO2 in 2007. Emissions arising from driving an average UK Supermini car 13,222 km and applying CO2 emissions reductions for 2007 derived from the UK Supermini car reduction rate of 2005-2006 (141g/vkm), equate to 1,864 kgCO2 in 2007. Average CO2 savings from driving a Polo Bluemotion 13,222 km instead of an average UK Supermini car in 2007 equate to 555 kg CO2.This translates into carbon savings comparable to: o Recycling 5,048 aluminium cans o Recycling a minimum of 25,241 lightweight carrier bags o Recycling about 312 reams of virgin A4 paper or about 138,826 individual A4 sheets. If a Polo Bluemotion is compared to other low emitting vehicles when driving 13,222 km per year, annual CO2 savings from choosing a Polo Bluemotion over the following models are: o CO2 savings from using a Polo Bluemotion to drive 13,222 km in 2007 instead of a Toyota Prius: 66 kg o CO2 savings from using a Polo Bluemotion to drive 13,222 km in 2007 instead of a Citroen C2: 106 kg
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o CO2 savings from using a Polo Bluemotion to drive 13,222 km in 2007 instead of a Citroen C1: 132 kg
Figures presented in this report have been rounded (generally to the nearest whole number) to show results clearly, as is standard practice in technical documents. Best Foot Forward performed its calculations using unrounded figures throughout. Therefore, if readers wish to reproduce the calculations then final results may be subject to minor discrepancies caused by using rounded intermediary figures.
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Figure 1: Average new car CO2 emissions in UK and selected Member States
Table 1 compares emissions from an average new car with the Polo Bluemotion using the average CO2 emission reduction for 2005 to 2006 and assuming each travels the average UK distance for private cars each year. This shows savings of 873 kgCO2 per year were the Bluemotion to be chosen instead of a new car and 555 kgCO2 (555.302 kgCO2 unrounded) per year were the Bluemotion to be selected instead of a Supermini (based on weighted average sales).
Table 1: Comparison of CO2 emissions between weighted average new car, weighted average new Supermini and Polo Bluemotion (2005-2006 reduction)
SMMT 2006 (gCO2/vkm) New Car - weighted average Supermini - weighted average Polo Bluemotion New Car -> Bluemotion savings Supermini -> Bluemotion savings 167 143 99 estimated 2007 (gCO2/vkm) 165 141 99 66 42 UK average (vkm/year) 13222 13222 13222 CO2 emissions (kgCO2/year) 2182 1864 1309 873 555
Note: Figures in this table are subject to rounding error. (Cells in yellow indicate numbers used).
Table 2 compares emissions from an average new car with the Polo Bluemotion using the average CO2 emissions reduction for 2003 to 2006 and assuming each travels the average UK distance for private cars each year. This shows savings of 886 kg CO2 per year were the Bluemotion to be chosen instead of a new car and 569 kg CO2 per year were the Bluemotion to be selected instead of a Supermini (based on weighted average sales).
Table 2: Comparison of CO2 emissions between weighted average new car, weighted average new Supermini and Polo Bluemotion (2003-2006 reduction)
SMMT 2006 (gCO2/vkm) 167 143 99 estimated 2007 (gCO2/vkm) 166 142 99 67 43 UK average (vkm/year) 13222 13222 13222 CO2 emissions (kgCO2/year) 2195 1877 1309 886 569
New Car - weighted average Supermini - weighted average Polo Bluemotion New Car -> Bluemotion savings Supermini -> Bluemotion savings
Note: The figures in this table are subject to rounding error. DDBAnalysisforVW BestFootForward2007 6of23
Recycling aluminium cans is undoubtedly good for the environment as bauxite ore is very energy intensive to extract and refine. Remelting used aluminium to manufacture new cans or other products, rather than using virgin materials, can reduce energy use (and hence carbon dioxide emissions) by up to 95% (Alpro 2007). A more realistic figure for the CO2 savings from recycling aluminium cans reflects the fact that the aluminium used for cans already has a high proportion of recycled content. In reality, savings are likely to be closer to 80%. Typical CO2 figures for virgin, UK typical and recycled aluminium are given in Table 3 below (Best Foot Forward 2007). Note that these figures are based on data from more than 50 studies of aluminium production and recycling. They carry an error estimate of +/- 20%.
Table 3: Comparison of CO2 figures (kg) for aluminium Virgin 11.64 0.20 Typical UK 8.35 0.14 Recycled 1.67 0.03 Typical UK savings 6.68 0.11 % UK savings 80% 80%
Therefore, each can recycled in the UK is typically going to save 0.11 kg of CO2 with a best case of 0.15kgCO2 and a worst case of 0.08kgCO2. Conservatively using 13,222 km as the estimated private car mileage for 2007 and 141g/vkm as the estimated baseline emissions for the Supermini sector, switching from the average Supermini purchase to a VW Polo Bluemotion saves 555kgCO2. This is equivalent to the emissions saved by recycling, rather than throwing away, 5,048 aluminium cans.
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Bags vary in weight depending primarily - on whether they are designed to be reused or disposable (see Table 4).
Table 4: Typical weights of plastic carrier bags (Scottish Executive, 2005) Bag type Lightweight Heavyweight Bag for Life Material LDPE/HDPE LDPE kg per 1,000 bags 8.4 47.4
Estimates of the number of plastic carrier bags used in the UK each year varies from between about 8 and 17 billion (Defra 2007, Wasteonline 2007, BBC 2005, WRAP 2005, Sainsburys 2007). Defras estimate of over 13 billion a year is probably the best substantiated as it is based on returns from suppliers and retailers. The most comprehensive exploration of the life cycle of carrier bags in the UK was undertaken to provide evidence on the desirability of introducing a Plastic Bag Levy in Scotland. The authors of the Scottish study draw heavily on an earlier French life cycle study of carrier bags commissioned by Carrefour (Scottish Executive 2005). However, as they were mainly evaluating the benefits of alternatives to plastic bags (paper, cloth etc.) neither of these studies focused on the benefits of bag recycling. An estimate of the impact of introducing a similar levy in Ireland, the Plastax, was also undertaken by this author (Simmons 2002) and provides a useful background to the summary statistics presented here. One of the few UK studies that address savings from recycling was undertaken by Nottingham University Consultants. This found that each tonne of recycled bags saves around 1.8 tonnes of oil compared with a tonne of bags made from virgin material. Other studies have indicated energy and carbon dioxide savings in the region of two to two-and-half times (Waste Online 2007). However, precise figures are hard to come by and vary according to the life cycle assumptions used for example, how many times bags are reused, the weight of bag, material and so on. A more general, but comprehensive, review of the literature on plastics recycling, published by WRAP (2006), identified 10 (out of 60) quality life cycle studies. Half of these contained one or more scenarios which compared recycling vs. incineration and/or landfill.
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All reviewed studies that considered closed loop recycling (that is, the recycled plastic is used as substitute for virgin material), and where the recycled material was not contaminated (collection was segregated), concluded that recycling/material recovery was environmentally better than both incineration and landfilling. Although not all these studies related to HDPE/LDPE, the environmental performance of different plastic types is similar. 19 scenarios (from 5 studies) specifically measured energy savings from recycling. Savings averaged 33% with a range from 7% to 52%. The lower figures reflect the reduced energy savings when recycling is compared to incineration with energy recovery. Incineration is a relatively rare waste treatment option within the UK. Only 8% of municipal waste is incinerated with energy recovery being rarer still (Environment Agency 2003). As a conservative estimate of the benefits of HDPE/LDPE recycling, the average 33% figure for the comparison with landfill/incineration is used here. Also, the other greenhouse gas savings from recycling are ignored (recycling avoids the emissions of other climate changing gases which are often expressed in terms of their CO2 equivalents). Looking at the energy used in HDPE/LDPE production, an analysis of 29 datapoints (Best Foot Forward 2007) gives an average figure of 32.7 MJ/kg (excluding feedstock) or 87.7 MJ/kg (including feedstock). Therefore, a 33% energy saving equates to a saving of between 10.8 MJ/kg and 28.8 MJ/kg. The carbon intensity of this energy varies by country of origin and production efficiency. The carbon intensity of the plastics sector (Best Foot Forward 2007) ranges between about 0.04 and 0.09kgCO2/MJ. Taking these extreme energy (MJ/kg) and carbon intensity (kgCO2/MJ) values, 33% savings would avoid emissions of between 0.43kgCO2 and 2.59kgCO2 per kg of HDPE/LDPE recycled. This wide range reflects the many different variables that need to be considered. Here we consider only the highest value (2.59kgCO2) which will, in turn, result in the lowest number of carrier bags. Assuming all lightweight bags (8.4kg per 1000 or 0.0084kg/bag), then recycling rather than landfillng, or incinerating, a single bag would avoid 0.022 kgCO2. Conservatively using 13,222 km as the estimated private car mileage for 2007 and 141g/vkm as the estimated baseline emissions for the Supermini sector, switching from the average Supermini purchase to a VW Polo Bluemotion saves 555kgCO2. This is equivalent to the emissions saved by recycling, rather than throwing away or incinerating, a minimum of 25,241 lightweight carrier bags.
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An analysis of 58 different figures for the kgCO2 emissions arising from the production of virgin paper (Best Foot Forward, 2007) gives an average value of 1.54 kgCO2/kg. This was derived using an average figure for the carbon intensity of the UK paper sector of 0.05kgCO2/MJ. An analysis of 5 figures for paper recycling gives an average figure of 0.83kgCO2/kg (using the same carbon intensity value). Therefore the entire life cycle carbon savings from recycling paper are estimated to be about 0.72 kgCO2 per kilogramme of paper recycled (1.54 -0.83kgCO2). This assumes all recycled paper displaces similar virgin material. Assuming 80gsm paper, then each ream (2.47kg) which is recycled could save 1.78kgCO2. Each sheet of virgin paper which is recycled therefore saves around 0.004kgCO2. Conservatively using 13,222 km as the estimated private car mileage for 2007 and 141g/vkm as the estimated baseline emissions for the Supermini sector, switching from the average Supermini purchase to a VW Polo Bluemotion saves 555kgCO2. This is equivalent to the emissions saved by recycling, rather than throwing away, about 312 reams of virgin A4 paper or about 138,826 individual A4 sheets.
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References
Alpro (2007) http://www.alupro.org.uk/recycling.htm (last accessed 8th June 2007) Best Foot Forward (2007) EcoIndex Database DfT (2007a). Travel Trends: 2006 Edition (Publish February 2007). Published by National Statistical Office. Extracted data from Trends 1.1a and 1.9b. DfT (2007b) Transport Statistics Bulletin: National Travel Survey 2006 (last accessed 18/9/07). Extracted data from Table 6.1
http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/statistics/datatablespublications/personal/mainresults/nts2006/pdfnattravlsur06.pdf
DfT (2006) Data prepared for consultation: Reducing new car CO2 emissions: what should succeed the Voluntary Agreements http://www.dft.gov.uk/consultations Environment Agency (2003) (last accessed 15th June 2007) http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/aboutus/512398/289428/653535/?lang=_e SMMT (2007) UK New Cars By CO2 Performance: Report of 2006 Market. Published by Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders. http://smmtlib.findlay.co.uk/articles/news/News/CO2%20Report%20-%20Overview.pdf WRAP (2006) Environmental Benefits of Recycling (last accessed 15th June 2007) http://www.wrap.org.uk/wrap_corporate/about_wrap/environmental.html WRAP (2007) UK Best in Class Tool (accessed 8th June 2007) http://www.wrap.org.uk/retail/tools_for_change/uk_best_in_class/index.html Scottish Executive (2005) Proposed Plastic Bag Levy - Extended Impact Assessment Final Report Volume 1: Main Report Environment Group Research Report 2005/06 http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/57346/0016899.pdf Waste Online (2007) Types of Plastic (accessed 14th June 2007) http://www.wasteonline.org.uk/resources/InformationSheets/Plastics.htm Waste Online (2006) Paper recycling Information Sheet (accessed 14th June 2007) http://www.wasteonline.org.uk/resources/InformationSheets/paper.htm Defra (2007) Local Environmental Quality: Plastic Bags (last accessed 15th June 2007) http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/localenv/litter/plasticbags/index.htm#stats Simmons (2002) Its in the bag: An estimate of the effect on CO2 emissions of the Irish Plastic Bag tax (accessed 14th June 2007) http://www.bestfootforward.com/downloads/itsinthebag.PDF Nottingham (undated) An Analysis of the Recycling of Low Density Polythene (LDPE) at Alida Recycling Ltd, Nottingham University Consultants Limited. Referenced in Scottish Executive (2005) Wasteonline (2007b) Plastics Recycling Information Sheet (accessed 14th June 2007) http://www.wasteonline.org.uk/resources/InformationSheets/Plastics.pdf
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Sainsburys (2007) Sainsbury's to ban disposable carrier bags (27th April 2007) http://www.jsainsbury.co.uk/index.asp?PageID=418&subsection=&Year=2007&NewsID=892
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2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2004-5 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2003/2004 2003 2003 2003 2003 2003 2003 2003 2003 2003 2003 2003 2003 2002
WRAP / James Ross Consulting Envirocentre Invest Northern Ireland GlaxoSmithKline Yorkshire Forward GlaxoSmithKline WWF-UK Places for People Irish Environmental Protection Agency European Environment Agency Isle of Wight Council Joint Nature Conservation Committee Environment Agency Countryside Commission for Wales Joint Nature Conservation Committee Nationwide Building Society Essex County Council Bioregional Casella Stanger Manchester Airport SWEET Northants Council East Renfrewshire Council Buckinghamshire County Council Royal Vale Council Rhodes University Essex County Council TRL EarthWatch Bill Dunster Associates Arena Network Essex County Council Biffaward/Viridis RSNC Anglian Water SEI OPDM UK Lyon FP/Partnership with France Living Witness Lincolnshire/ N Lincs Environment Agency/BBC Angus Council Angus Council BioRegional
Analysis of beer, wine and whiskey packaging Northern Limits update Greenways update Footprint of 7 nutritional products Corporate Stepwise Corporate Stepwise One Planet Business - Industry Sector Reports Corporate Stepwise All Ireland resource flow and ecological footprint Europe and the Globe their environmental interactions Recalibration and updated Ecological Footprint Corporate Stepwise Resource Flow Approach to Hazardous waste Reduction Corporate Resource Flow and Ecological Footprint Resource flows and global biodiversity Intranet calculator, Environment day Linking Ecological Footprinting and PSA target delivery Ecological Footprint of Local Paper LCA Hazardous Waste Corporate Stepwise Stepping Forward a resource flow and Ecological Footprint of South West England Regional Stepwise Regional Stepwise Regional Stepwise Regional Stepwise Africa Challenge Card Game Lifestyle Stepwise (web based) Highways Agency Carbon Analysis Corporate Training Course Personal Stepwise Scenarios Northern Limits Resource Flow and Ecological Footprint of Northern Ireland Regional Footprint Scotland Footprint NHS Material Health Report Capital Development Scenarios UK Footprint City Footprint Overseas partnerships agreement Personal FP calculator Ecological footprint of regions Web-based lifestyle calculators Brechin Questionnaire Household footprints Regional footprint Footprint of Bedzed construction 14of23
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2002 2002 2002 2002 2001-2 2001-3 2001 2001 2001 2001 2001 2001 2001 2001 2001 2001 2001 2001 2001 2001 2001 1999 2000 1999-2000
BioRegional Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) States of Jersey Science Museum Institutes of Wastes Management / BIffaward Envirocentre Anglian Water European Parliament C-level Going for Green European Union European Common Indicators Programme HP Bulmers Project Carrot Kingswood EcoCentre Sigma Project Welsh National Assembly / WWF WWF-UK Biffaward New Scientist Customs and Excise Holme Lacey College Imperial College / Biffaward Association of Chartered and Certified Accountants Corporation of London Anglian Water Going for Green Going for Green Friends of the Earth The Guardian People and Planet Lloyd Lewis Power
Footprint of local paper for London Ecological Footprint Analysis of five cities Ecological Footprint of Jersey Carbon calculations City Limits a resource flow and ecological footprint analysis of Greater London Ecological Footprint & Mass Balance of Northern Ireland Ecological Footprints for assessing Capital projects Footprint of drinks packaging Carbon analysis of CD Community EcoCal a tool for monitoring sustainability indicators Ecological Footprinting as an indicator for sustainable cities An Ecological Footprint of Bulmers An Ecological Footprint of Herefordshire Using Ecological Footprinting as an Educational Resource Ecological Footprint and Economic Scenario Software Tool An Ecological Footprint of Wales Ecological Footprints of Holidays An Ecological Footprint of the NHS Ecological Footprint Calculator for Lifestyles An Ecological Footprint of two offices An Ecological Footprint Analysis of an Educational Establishment Island State a resource flow and ecological footprint analysis of the Isle of Wight Ecological Footprinting towards a Sustainability Indicator for Business research report Carbon Analysis of Burnham Beeches Reserve Footprint of Anglian Water EcoCal for Schools EcoCal Environmental Space calculator Ecological Footprint Calculator for Lifestyles Ecological Footprint Calculator for Student Unions An Ecological Footprint of a School
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Other comparisons
If the Polo Bluemotion is compared to the crude average emissions of 40 current supermini models (128g/km) (this is irrespective of numbers sold, and therefore not representative of the typical new car entering the road) then 383 kg CO2 are saved from driving an average of 13,222 km.
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Seen in the table below are the most carbon efficient vehicles (first column) and cars (second column) in the UK market:
The Reva G-Wiz is an electric, very small vehicle which does not qualify as a car (Type B1 approved only). The Microcar MC1 and Aixam A751are fossil fuel powered vehicles which do not qualify as cars, either. According to SMMT (2007), the best: hybrid is the Toyota Prius (104g/km) diesel is Citroen C2 (107g/km) petrol is Citroen C1 (109g/km) Comparing these three best-in-class cars to the Polo Bluemotion gives the following savings: CO2 savings from using a Polo Bluemotion to drive 13,222 km in 2007 instead of a Toyota Prius: 66 kg CO2 savings from using a Polo Bluemotion to drive 13,222 km in 2007 instead of a Citroen C2: 106 kg CO2 savings from using a Polo Bluemotion to drive 13,222 km in 2007 instead of a Citroen C1: 132 kg
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Table 6, derived from DfT data (table 9.17 from Transport Statistics, 2006 and Table 6.1 from DfT 2007b), shows the average mileage of all 4-wheel cars in the UK broken down into mileage by purpose. Due to DfT methodology changes between 2005 and 2006, it is possible to project forward total mileage (for both private and company cars see Figure 3) but not private car mileage in isolation. Instead the proportion of private cars is projected forward using the historical and 2006 actual relationship between company and private car mileage. This shows a consistent trend (see Figure 4) with the overall total mileage declining but a growing proportion of these being attributable to private car use. Figure 3 provides a 2007 estimate of total car mileage of 8762 (14,019 km) 1 of this 94.31%2 (13,222 km) is estimated to be private car use. Table 6: Mileage of all 4-wheel cars in UK (2002-2006) with estimated figures for 2007.
DfT, 2006 Table 9.17 and DfT, 2007 Table 6.1 (figures in italics are old DfT methodology)
year business mileage commuting mileage Other private mileage total mileage Private car miles Private car km
9120 9170 9200 9230 9120 9160 8980 9010 8770 8762
1 2
Derived using formula: -102x + 9374 (where x = annual period; 2002 = 1). See Figure 3. Derived using formula: 0.008x + 0.8951 (where x = annual period; 2002 = 1). See Figure 4.
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Figure 3: Projected mileage for all 4-wheeled cars, UK (DfT 2007b; includes private and company cars).
9400 9300 9200 9100 9000 8900 8800 y = -102x + 9374 8700 8600 8500 All-4 wheeled All-4 wheeled Linear (All-4 wheeled)
2002 9170
2003 9230
2004 9160
2005 9010
2006 8770
2007
Figure 4: Percentage of total 4-wheeled car mileage which is attributable to private cars (projected forward to 2007)
95% y = 0.008x + 0.8951 94%
93%
92% %of t ot al which are private cars Linear (%of t ot al which are private cars) 91%
90%
89%
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Table 7: CO2 emissions (per km) of average UK car and supermini car by year.
SMMT 2006 (gCO2/km) New car Supermini Polo Bluemotion 167.2 143.1 99 Estimated (gCO2/km) 2007 (one 3 year average) 165.0 140.6 99.0 Estimated (gCO2/km) 2007 (three year 4 average) 165.6 141.8 99.0
Table 8: Reduction in CO2 emissions for all UK new cars and supermini new cars by year. new car % change supermini % change Year 172.1 147 2003 171.5 -0.35% 146.4 -0.44% 2004 169.4 -1.22% 145.7 -0.45% 2005 167.2 -1.30% 143.1 -1.78% 2006 total -2.85% -2.65% annual average -0.95% -0.88%
In conclusion, if the analysis is done by extrapolating from 2003-2006 years instead of from 2005-2006, the gradient of change is so similar that it makes a difference of less than 1%.
Calculating a 1.30% reduction from 2006 average CO2 emissions for all UK cars. Calculating a 1.78% reduction from 2006 average CO2 emissions for super mini cars. Calculating a 0.95% reduction from 2006 average CO2 emissions for all UK cars. Calculating a 0.88% reduction from 2006 average CO2 emissions for super mini cars.
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