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Information

feuille

donnes

donnnes de base

Sries de donnes

donnes des 3 sries de dbits

maxima annuels

loi de Gumbel lorsque l'on prend la valeur maximal annuelle

srie gonfle

loi de Gumbel lorque l'on prend les k (ici valant 2) plus grandes v

srie tronque

loi de Gumbel lorsque l'on prend toutes les valeurs suprieures

lgende

cellule dont le contenu doit tre spcifi par l'utilisateur


cellule contenant ou devant contenir une formule

nd la valeur maximal annuelle

d les k (ici valant 2) plus grandes valeurs par anne

nd toutes les valeurs suprieures une valeur seuil (ici valant 6 m3/s)

e spcifi par l'utilisateur

ontenir une formule

Donnes de base

Annes

1979
1979
1979
1979
1979
1979
1979
1979
1979
1980
1980
1980
1980
1980
1980
1980
1980
1980
1980
1980
1980
1980
1980
1980
1980
1980
1981
1981
1981
1981
1981
1981
1981
1981
1981
1981
1981
1981
1981
1982

date

dbit

(jj.mm.aaaa)

[m3/s]

01/28/1979
03/11/1979
03/26/1979
05/02/1979
08/26/1979
10/22/1979
11/09/1979
12/11/1979
12/28/1979
01/05/1980
01/24/1980
02/04/1980
03/07/1980
03/27/1980
06/08/1980
06/15/1980
06/29/1980
07/08/1980
07/15/1980
08/08/1980
10/08/1980
10/24/1980
11/18/1980
11/26/1980
12/06/1980
12/15/1980
01/04/1981
01/20/1981
02/04/1981
03/13/1981
03/26/1981
05/26/1981
07/23/1981
10/11/1981
10/21/1981
10/30/1981
12/01/1981
12/14/1981
12/24/1981
01/06/1982

9.73
1.53
3.04
3.91
0.60
0.37
7.37
7.49
0.55
0.76
9.39
8.25
1.49
1.04
0.79
3.24
2.79
5.19
1.86
0.39
3.71
4.57
0.40
0.76
1.32
4.00
7.99
0.65
1.74
4.62
2.98
2.69
0.47
2.76
1.20
3.12
5.83
9.91
0.53
7.94

1982
1982
1982
1982
1982
1982
1982
1982
1982
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1984
1984
1984
1984
1984
1984
1984
1984
1984
1984
1984
1984
1985
1985
1985
1985
1985
1985
1985
1985
1985
1985
1986
1986
1986
1986
1986
1986
1986
1986
1986
1986

01/30/1982
03/17/1982
06/26/1982
08/20/1982
09/06/1982
09/26/1982
10/13/1982
11/13/1982
12/17/1982
01/16/1983
02/01/1983
02/26/1983
03/15/1983
03/25/1983
04/06/1983
04/20/1983
05/04/1983
05/17/1983
06/13/1983
09/02/1983
09/16/1983
10/16/1983
11/27/1983
12/21/1983
01/03/1984
01/14/1984
01/24/1984
02/07/1984
04/02/1984
05/19/1984
09/05/1984
09/15/1984
09/23/1984
10/05/1984
11/26/1984
12/18/1984
01/23/1985
02/02/1985
03/09/1985
03/26/1985
04/08/1985
05/08/1985
06/15/1985
06/22/1985
11/10/1985
12/29/1985
01/23/1986
03/07/1986
04/03/1986
04/22/1986
05/08/1986
05/21/1986
06/11/1986
07/06/1986
08/27/1986
10/25/1986

0.38
2.57
1.97
2.12
0.65
0.59
8.14
1.79
9.93
0.87
1.89
1.26
0.52
0.58
8.20
0.63
2.65
2.75
0.87
0.40
1.28
0.99
7.90
1.88
0.97
7.89
1.89
9.49
3.85
0.39
0.91
0.90
4.44
6.97
3.17
2.00
8.11
1.20
1.04
1.93
3.59
2.04
0.36
1.33
2.37
8.43
6.77
0.71
3.99
1.86
0.90
4.06
0.35
0.50
0.44
1.31

1986
1986
1987
1987
1987
1987
1987
1987
1987
1987
1987
1987
1987
1987
1987
1987
1987
1987
1988
1988
1988
1988
1988
1988
1988
1988
1988
1988
1988
1988
1989
1989
1989
1989
1989
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1991
1991
1991
1991
1991
1991
1991
1991
1991
1991

11/23/1986
12/19/1986
01/02/1987
01/28/1987
02/10/1987
02/28/1987
03/28/1987
04/09/1987
05/15/1987
06/08/1987
06/15/1987
07/03/1987
07/30/1987
08/23/1987
09/27/1987
10/12/1987
11/13/1987
12/19/1987
01/03/1988
01/29/1988
02/09/1988
03/16/1988
03/25/1988
05/19/1988
05/31/1988
07/03/1988
08/20/1988
08/29/1988
10/10/1988
12/05/1988
03/03/1989
03/17/1989
04/14/1989
10/29/1989
12/19/1989
02/02/1990
02/14/1990
03/01/1990
04/23/1990
06/08/1990
06/20/1990
07/05/1990
09/24/1990
10/04/1990
10/29/1990
11/21/1990
01/07/1991
03/03/1991
03/22/1991
05/11/1991
06/03/1991
06/16/1991
07/07/1991
07/30/1991
09/23/1991
10/12/1991

1.91
6.85
5.57
0.76
6.52
1.35
5.46
1.05
0.38
5.07
5.68
6.53
0.65
0.87
2.68
1.03
6.76
0.72
2.01
3.55
7.61
9.83
1.99
0.51
1.22
1.89
0.65
0.56
7.92
4.03
6.95
2.22
1.07
0.53
2.09
0.92
9.39
5.52
1.58
5.12
1.94
1.50
1.13
2.08
4.84
4.41
3.70
0.99
1.68
1.00
0.58
1.30
1.25
1.82
0.65
0.86

1991
1991
1991
1992
1992
1992
1992
1992
1992
1992
1992
1992
1992
1992
1992
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996

11/04/1991
11/13/1991
12/22/1991
02/04/1992
03/23/1992
04/05/1992
04/15/1992
05/02/1992
06/04/1992
07/12/1992
07/22/1992
08/31/1992
10/28/1992
11/15/1992
12/04/1992
04/08/1993
07/10/1993
09/10/1993
10/08/1993
10/14/1993
12/24/1993
12/31/1993
01/14/1994
01/28/1994
02/23/1994
04/09/1994
04/25/1994
05/12/1994
05/22/1994
06/19/1994
07/14/1994
09/15/1994
10/03/1994
10/26/1994
11/10/1994
12/10/1994
12/30/1994
01/11/1995
01/23/1995
02/25/1995
03/12/1995
03/19/1995
03/29/1995
05/18/1995
06/01/1995
08/08/1995
08/29/1995
09/13/1995
09/20/1995
11/17/1995
12/25/1995
01/07/1996
02/18/1996
03/22/1996
05/03/1996
06/08/1996

7.95
7.34
4.44
0.48
0.90
1.36
0.38
0.39
0.84
0.38
1.12
0.43
9.96
8.13
7.41
1.28
0.41
2.01
2.05
1.17
7.01
7.49
0.58
2.39
0.52
1.37
0.36
0.36
1.87
1.49
0.71
6.63
1.15
3.59
0.46
2.48
6.42
3.45
8.96
6.20
0.88
6.50
1.57
6.34
2.62
0.41
0.41
2.97
0.71
1.27
9.95
3.58
0.68
0.57
0.40
0.46

1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999

07/06/1996
08/12/1996
08/25/1996
10/16/1996
11/05/1996
11/30/1996
12/13/1996
12/19/1996
01/21/1997
02/05/1997
02/15/1997
02/26/1997
05/10/1997
05/18/1997
06/29/1997
07/17/1997
08/07/1997
08/28/1997
09/13/1997
10/12/1997
11/10/1997
12/12/1997
12/26/1997
01/02/1998
01/19/1998
02/23/1998
03/08/1998
04/07/1998
05/31/1998
09/11/1998
09/30/1998
11/04/1998
11/10/1998
12/13/1998
01/26/1999
02/09/1999
02/22/1999
03/02/1999
04/07/1999
05/14/1999
06/08/1999
08/09/1999
10/03/1999
11/06/1999
12/12/1999

2.79
0.40
0.74
0.50
0.75
3.41
1.86
1.63
1.13
0.58
0.97
2.65
7.86
1.06
6.64
6.04
0.74
0.44
0.75
0.45
0.72
2.73
2.02
4.63
7.45
0.44
0.72
3.34
0.45
0.74
1.05
6.57
0.77
0.90
0.80
1.07
6.37
1.36
1.48
1.92
2.09
8.39
2.68
1.26
4.68

Constitution des 3 sries de donnes : maxima annuel, gonfle, tronq


i

Trier par anne

Donnes de base

Annes

1979
1979
1979
1979
1979
1979
1979
1979
1979
1980
1980
1980
1980
1980
1980
1980
1980
1980
1980
1980
1980
1980
1980
1980
1980
1980
1981
1981
1981
1981
1981
1981
1981
1981
1981
1981
1981
1981
1981

Maxima annuels

date

dbit

date

(jj.mm.aaaa)

[m3/s]

(jj.mm.aaaa)

10/22/1979
12/28/1979
8/26/1979
3/11/1979
3/26/1979
5/2/1979
11/9/1979
12/11/1979
1/28/1979
8/8/1980
11/18/1980
1/5/1980
11/26/1980
6/8/1980
3/27/1980
12/6/1980
3/7/1980
7/15/1980
6/29/1980
6/15/1980
10/8/1980
12/15/1980
10/24/1980
7/8/1980
2/4/1980
1/24/1980
7/23/1981
12/24/1981
1/20/1981
10/21/1981
2/4/1981
5/26/1981
10/11/1981
3/26/1981
10/30/1981
3/13/1981
12/1/1981
1/4/1981
12/14/1981

0.37
0.55
0.60
1.53
3.04
3.91
7.37
7.49
9.73
0.39
0.40
0.76
0.76
0.79
1.04
1.32
1.49
1.86
2.79
3.24
3.71
4.00
4.57
5.19
8.25
9.39
0.47
0.53
0.65
1.20
1.74
2.69
2.76
2.98
3.12
4.62
5.83
7.99
9.91

1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

2MAX
MAX

2MAX
MAX

2MAX
MAX

1982
1982
1982
1982
1982
1982
1982
1982
1982
1982
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1984
1984
1984
1984
1984
1984
1984
1984
1984
1984
1984
1984
1985
1985
1985
1985
1985
1985
1985
1985
1985
1985
1986
1986
1986
1986
1986
1986
1986
1986
1986

1/30/1982
9/26/1982
9/6/1982
11/13/1982
6/26/1982
8/20/1982
3/17/1982
1/6/1982
10/13/1982
12/17/1982
9/2/1983
3/15/1983
3/25/1983
4/20/1983
1/16/1983
6/13/1983
10/16/1983
2/26/1983
9/16/1983
12/21/1983
2/1/1983
5/4/1983
5/17/1983
11/27/1983
4/6/1983
5/19/1984
9/15/1984
9/5/1984
1/3/1984
1/24/1984
12/18/1984
11/26/1984
4/2/1984
9/23/1984
10/5/1984
1/14/1984
2/7/1984
6/15/1985
3/9/1985
2/2/1985
6/22/1985
3/26/1985
5/8/1985
11/10/1985
4/8/1985
1/23/1985
12/29/1985
6/11/1986
8/27/1986
7/6/1986
3/7/1986
5/8/1986
10/25/1986
4/22/1986
11/23/1986
4/3/1986

0.38
0.59
0.65
1.79
1.97
2.12
2.57
7.94
8.14
9.93
0.40
0.52
0.58
0.63
0.87
0.87
0.99
1.26
1.28
1.88
1.89
2.65
2.75
7.90
8.20
0.39
0.90
0.91
0.97
1.89
2.00
3.17
3.85
4.44
6.97
7.89
9.49
0.36
1.04
1.20
1.33
1.93
2.04
2.37
3.59
8.11
8.43
0.35
0.44
0.50
0.71
0.90
1.31
1.86
1.91
3.99

2MAX
MAX

2MAX
MAX

2MAX
MAX

2MAX
MAX

1986
1986
1986
1987
1987
1987
1987
1987
1987
1987
1987
1987
1987
1987
1987
1987
1987
1987
1987
1988
1988
1988
1988
1988
1988
1988
1988
1988
1988
1988
1988
1989
1989
1989
1989
1989
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1991
1991
1991
1991
1991
1991
1991
1991
1991

5/21/1986
1/23/1986
12/19/1986
5/15/1987
7/30/1987
12/19/1987
1/28/1987
8/23/1987
10/12/1987
4/9/1987
2/28/1987
9/27/1987
6/8/1987
3/28/1987
1/2/1987
6/15/1987
2/10/1987
7/3/1987
11/13/1987
5/19/1988
8/29/1988
8/20/1988
5/31/1988
7/3/1988
3/25/1988
1/3/1988
1/29/1988
12/5/1988
2/9/1988
10/10/1988
3/16/1988
10/29/1989
4/14/1989
12/19/1989
3/17/1989
3/3/1989
2/2/1990
9/24/1990
7/5/1990
4/23/1990
6/20/1990
10/4/1990
11/21/1990
10/29/1990
6/8/1990
3/1/1990
2/14/1990
6/3/1991
9/23/1991
10/12/1991
3/3/1991
5/11/1991
7/7/1991
6/16/1991
3/22/1991
7/30/1991

4.06
6.77
6.85
0.38
0.65
0.72
0.76
0.87
1.03
1.05
1.35
2.68
5.07
5.46
5.57
5.68
6.52
6.53
6.76
0.51
0.56
0.65
1.22
1.89
1.99
2.01
3.55
4.03
7.61
7.92
9.83
0.53
1.07
2.09
2.22
6.95
0.92
1.13
1.50
1.58
1.94
2.08
4.41
4.84
5.12
5.52
9.39
0.58
0.65
0.86
0.99
1.00
1.25
1.30
1.68
1.82

2MAX
MAX

2MAX
MAX

2MAX
MAX

2MAX
MAX

2MAX
MAX

1991
1991
1991
1991
1992
1992
1992
1992
1992
1992
1992
1992
1992
1992
1992
1992
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1996
1996
1996
1996

1/7/1991
12/22/1991
11/13/1991
11/4/1991
7/12/1992
4/15/1992
5/2/1992
8/31/1992
2/4/1992
6/4/1992
3/23/1992
7/22/1992
4/5/1992
12/4/1992
11/15/1992
10/28/1992
7/10/1993
10/14/1993
4/8/1993
9/10/1993
10/8/1993
12/24/1993
12/31/1993
5/12/1994
4/25/1994
11/10/1994
2/23/1994
1/14/1994
7/14/1994
10/3/1994
4/9/1994
6/19/1994
5/22/1994
1/28/1994
12/10/1994
10/26/1994
12/30/1994
9/15/1994
8/8/1995
8/29/1995
9/20/1995
3/12/1995
11/17/1995
3/29/1995
6/1/1995
9/13/1995
1/11/1995
2/25/1995
5/18/1995
3/19/1995
1/23/1995
12/25/1995
5/3/1996
8/12/1996
6/8/1996
10/16/1996

3.70
4.44
7.34
7.95
0.38
0.38
0.39
0.43
0.48
0.84
0.90
1.12
1.36
7.41
8.13
9.96
0.41
1.17
1.28
2.01
2.05
7.01
7.49
0.36
0.36
0.46
0.52
0.58
0.71
1.15
1.37
1.49
1.87
2.39
2.48
3.59
6.42
6.63
0.41
0.41
0.71
0.88
1.27
1.57
2.62
2.97
3.45
6.20
6.34
6.50
8.96
9.95
0.40
0.40
0.46
0.50

2MAX
MAX

2MAX
MAX

2MAX
MAX

2MAX
MAX

2MAX
MAX

1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999

3/22/1996
2/18/1996
8/25/1996
11/5/1996
12/19/1996
12/13/1996
7/6/1996
11/30/1996
1/7/1996
8/28/1997
10/12/1997
2/5/1997
11/10/1997
8/7/1997
9/13/1997
2/15/1997
5/18/1997
1/21/1997
12/26/1997
2/26/1997
12/12/1997
7/17/1997
6/29/1997
5/10/1997
2/23/1998
5/31/1998
3/8/1998
9/11/1998
11/10/1998
12/13/1998
9/30/1998
4/7/1998
1/2/1998
11/4/1998
1/19/1998
1/26/1999
2/9/1999
11/6/1999
3/2/1999
4/7/1999
5/14/1999
6/8/1999
10/3/1999
12/12/1999
2/22/1999
8/9/1999

0.57
0.68
0.74
0.75
1.63
1.86
2.79
3.41
3.58
0.44
0.45
0.58
0.72
0.74
0.75
0.97
1.06
1.13
2.02
2.65
2.73
6.04
6.64
7.86
0.44
0.45
0.72
0.74
0.77
0.90
1.05
3.34
4.63
6.57
7.45
0.80
1.07
1.26
1.36
1.48
1.92
2.09
2.68
4.68
6.37
8.39

2MAX
MAX

2MAX
MAX

2MAX
MAX

2MAX
MAX

maxima annuel, gonfle, tronque

Maxima annuels

Srie gonfle (2 valeurs / an)

Srie tronque (seuil de 6 m3/s)

dbit

date

dbit

date

dbit

[m3/s]

(jj.mm.aaaa)

[m3/s]

(jj.mm.aaaa)

[m3/s]

9.73
9.39
9.91
9.93
8.20
9.49
8.43
6.85
6.76
9.83
6.95
9.39
7.95
9.96
7.49
6.63
9.95
3.58
7.86
7.45
8.39

1979
1979
1980
1980
1981
1981
1982
1982
1983
1983
1984
1984
1985
1985
1986
1986
1987
1987
1988
1988
1989
1989
1990
1990
1991
1991
1992
1992
1993
1993
1994
1994
1995
1995
1996
1996
1997
1997
1998

7.49
9.73
8.25
9.39
7.99
9.91
8.14
9.93
7.90
8.20
7.89
9.49
8.11
8.43
6.77
6.85
6.53
6.76
7.92
9.83
2.22
6.95
5.52
9.39
7.34
7.95
8.13
9.96
7.01
7.49
6.42
6.63
8.96
9.95
3.41
3.58
6.64
7.86
6.57

1979
1979
1979
1980
1980
1981
1981
1982
1982
1982
1983
1983
1984
1984
1984
1985
1985
1986
1986
1987
1987
1987
1988
1988
1988
1989
1990
1991
1991
1992
1992
1992
1993
1993
1994
1994
1995
1995
1995

7.37
7.49
9.73
8.25
9.39
7.99
9.91
7.94
8.14
9.93
8.20
7.90
6.97
7.89
9.49
8.11
8.43
6.77
6.85
6.52
6.53
6.76
7.61
7.92
9.83
6.95
9.39
7.34
7.95
7.41
8.13
9.96
7.01
7.49
6.42
6.63
6.20
6.34
6.50

<<<

<<<

<<<
<<<

1998
1999
1999

7.45
6.37
8.39

1995
1995
1997
1997
1997
1998
1998
1999
1999

8.96
9.95
6.04
6.64
7.86
6.57
7.45
6.37
8.39

Donnes pour les maximas annuels

paramtre alpha =

0.5

date

dbit classs
par ordre croissant

rang

probabilit cumule
de non-dpassement

(jj.mm.aaaa)

[m3/s]

[-]

[-]

1994

6.63

0.03

1987
1986

6.76
6.85

2
3

0.08
0.13

1989
1998
1993
1997
1991
1983
1999
1985
1980
1990
1984
1979
1988
1981
1982
1995
1992

6.95
7.45
7.49
7.86
7.95
8.20
8.39
8.43
9.39
9.39
9.49
9.73
9.83
9.91
9.93
9.95
9.96

4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
12
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

0.18
0.23
0.28
0.33
0.38
0.43
0.48
0.53
0.58
0.58
0.68
0.73
0.78
0.83
0.88
0.93
0.98

Coefficients a et b
Mthode des Moments

probabilit cumule de non dp

variable rduite d

Intervalle de confiance
[-]

variable rduite
de Gumbel u

dbit observ

dbit estim

temps de retour T

[-]

[m3/s]

[m3/s]

[an]

-1.31

6.63

6.72

1.03

-0.95
-0.73

6.76
6.85

7.06
7.27

1.08
1.14

-0.56
-0.40
-0.26
-0.12
0.02
0.16
0.30
0.44
0.59
0.59
0.93
1.13
1.37
1.65
2.01
2.55
3.68

6.95
7.45
7.49
7.86
7.95
8.20
8.39
8.43
9.39
9.39
9.49
9.73
9.83
9.91
9.93
9.95
9.96

7.44
7.59
7.73
7.86
7.99
8.12
8.26
8.40
8.54
8.54
8.87
9.06
9.28
9.55
9.90
10.42
11.50

1.21
1.29
1.38
1.48
1.60
1.74
1.90
2.11
2.35
2.35
3.08
3.64
4.44
5.71
8.00
13.33
40.00

Nombre de valeur =
moyenne =
variance =
cart-type =

20
8.53
1.51
1.23

paramtre de position a =
paramtre d'chelle b =

8.0
1.0

[m3/s]
[m3/s]

temps de retour T =
ilit cumule de non dpassement F =

30
0.97

[an]
[-]

[m3/s]
[m3/s]

variable rduite de Gumbel u =


dbit estim Q =

3.38
11.2

[-]
[m3/s]

[Chow 1988] propose la formulation suivante pour la loi de G

alle de confiance
a=
za =

0.05

[-]

1.64

[-]

KT

Se

Q - Se*za

Q + Se*za

avec

[-]

[m3/s]

[m3/s]

[m3/s]

x [r] :

dbit observ de rang r , en [m3/s]

se :
za:

standard error of estimate , en [m3/


quantile de la loi normale centre rdu

s :
n :
KT :

cart-type des observations, en [m3/s]


nombre dobservations, adimensionne
frequency factor , adimensionnel

-1.47

0.36

6.13

7.31

-1.19
-1.02

0.30
0.27

6.57
6.82

7.56
7.72

-0.88
-0.76
-0.65
-0.54
-0.43
-0.33
-0.22
-0.11
0.01
0.01
0.28
0.43
0.62
0.84
1.12
1.54
2.42

0.25
0.24
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.24
0.25
0.26
0.28
0.28
0.33
0.36
0.40
0.45
0.53
0.64
0.88

7.02
7.19
7.34
7.48
7.61
7.73
7.85
7.97
8.09
8.09
8.33
8.47
8.63
8.81
9.04
9.37
10.05

7.86
7.99
8.11
8.24
8.37
8.51
8.66
8.82
9.00
9.00
9.40
9.65
9.94
10.30
10.77
11.47
12.94

Chow, V. T., Maidment, D. R., Mays, L. W., 1988


Applied hydrology
International Edition 1988
MacGraw-Hill Book Co.

ulation suivante pour la loi de Gumbel :

serv de rang r , en [m3/s]

rd error of estimate , en [m3/s]


de la loi normale centre rduite pour un indice de confiance a

e des observations, en [m3/s]


dobservations, adimensionnel
ncy factor , adimensionnel

ment, D. R., Mays, L. W., 1988

Ajustement des dbits maxima annuels selon une distribution de Gumbel


et intervalle de confiance
14

12

10

dbit [m3/s]

0
-2

-1

variable rduite de Gumbel u [-]

dbit observ

dbit estim

intervalle de confiance 90%

Donnes pour la srie gonfle (2 valeurs par anne)

paramtre alpha =

0.5

date

dbit classs
par ordre croissant

rang

probabilit cumule
de non-dpassement

(jj.mm.aaaa)

[m3/s]

[-]

[-]

1990
1999
1994
1987
1998
1994
1997
1987
1986
1986
1989
1993
1991
1998
1979
1993
1997
1984
1983
1988
1991
1981
1985
1992
1982
1983
1980
1999
1985
1995
1980
1990
1984
1979
1988

5.52
6.37
6.42
6.53
6.57
6.63
6.64
6.76
6.77
6.85
6.95
7.01
7.34
7.45
7.49
7.49
7.86
7.89
7.90
7.92
7.95
7.99
8.11
8.13
8.14
8.20
8.25
8.39
8.43
8.96
9.39
9.39
9.49
9.73
9.83

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
15
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
31
33
34
35

0.013
0.038
0.064
0.090
0.115
0.141
0.167
0.192
0.218
0.244
0.269
0.295
0.321
0.346
0.372
0.372
0.423
0.449
0.474
0.500
0.526
0.551
0.577
0.603
0.628
0.654
0.679
0.705
0.731
0.756
0.782
0.782
0.833
0.859
0.885

1981
1982
1995
1992

9.91
9.93
9.95
9.96

36
37
38
39

0.910
0.936
0.962
0.987

Coefficients a et b
Mthode des Moments

Correction
de a et b :

paramtre de posi
paramtre d'ch

paramtre de position annual


paramtre d'chelle annual

probabilit cumule de non dpassem


variable rduite de Gum

[-]

variable rduite
de Gumbel u

dbit observ

[-]

[m3/s]

probabilit cumule
de non-dpassement
annualise
[-]

-1.47
-1.18
-1.01
-0.88
-0.77
-0.67
-0.58
-0.50
-0.42
-0.35
-0.27
-0.20
-0.13
-0.06
0.01
0.01
0.15
0.22
0.29
0.37
0.44
0.52
0.60
0.68
0.77
0.86
0.95
1.05
1.16
1.28
1.40
1.40
1.70
1.88
2.10

5.52
6.37
6.42
6.53
6.57
6.63
6.64
6.76
6.77
6.85
6.95
7.01
7.34
7.45
7.49
7.49
7.86
7.89
7.90
7.92
7.95
7.99
8.11
8.13
8.14
8.20
8.25
8.39
8.43
8.96
9.39
9.39
9.49
9.73
9.83

0.000
0.001
0.004
0.008
0.013
0.020
0.028
0.037
0.048
0.059
0.072
0.087
0.103
0.120
0.138
0.138
0.179
0.201
0.225
0.250
0.276
0.304
0.333
0.363
0.395
0.428
0.462
0.497
0.534
0.572
0.612
0.612
0.694
0.738
0.783

2.36
2.71
3.24
4.35

9.91
9.93
9.95
9.96

Nombre de valeur =
moyenne =
variance =
cartype =

39
7.96
1.47
1.21

paramtre de position a =
paramtre d'chelle b =

7.4
0.9

paramtre k =

aramtre de position annualis a =


paramtre d'chelle annualis b =

8.1
0.9

temps de retour T =
cumule de non dpassement F =
variable rduite de Gumbel u =
dbit estim Q =

30
0.97
3.38
11.3

0.829
0.876
0.925
0.975

[m3/s]
[m3/s]
[m3/s]
[m3/s]
observations

[an]
[-]
[-]
[m3/s]

variable rduite
de Gumbel u
annualise
[-]
-2.16
-1.87
-1.70
-1.57
-1.46
-1.37
-1.28
-1.19
-1.11
-1.04
-0.96
-0.89
-0.82
-0.75
-0.68
-0.68
-0.54
-0.47
-0.40
-0.33
-0.25
-0.17
-0.10
-0.01
0.07
0.16
0.26
0.36
0.47
0.58
0.71
0.71
1.01
1.19
1.41

dbit observ
"annualis"

dbit estim
annualis

[m3/s]

[m3/s]

5.52
6.37
6.42
6.53
6.57
6.63
6.64
6.76
6.77
6.85
6.95
7.01
7.34
7.45
7.49
7.49
7.86
7.89
7.90
7.92
7.95
7.99
8.11
8.13
8.14
8.20
8.25
8.39
8.43
8.96
9.39
9.39
9.49
9.73
9.83

6.02
6.30
6.46
6.58
6.69
6.78
6.86
6.94
7.02
7.09
7.16
7.23
7.29
7.36
7.43
7.43
7.56
7.62
7.69
7.76
7.83
7.91
7.98
8.06
8.14
8.22
8.31
8.41
8.51
8.62
8.74
8.74
9.02
9.20
9.40

1.67
2.02
2.55
3.66

9.91
9.93
9.95
9.96

9.65
9.98
10.48
11.53

Ajustement de la srie gonfle (2 valeurs par anne) selon une distribution de Gumbel
14

12

10

dbit [m3/s]

0
-3

-2

-1

variable rduite de Gumbel u [-]

dbit observ - srie "non annualise"

dbit observ - srie "annualise"

dbit estim

Donnes pour la srie tronque

paramtre alpha =

0.5

date
(jj.mm.aaaa)

dbit classs
par ordre croissant
[m3/s]

rang
[-]

probabilit cumule
de non-dpassement
[-]

1997
1995
1995
1999
1994
1995
1987
1987
1998
1994
1997
1987
1986
1986
1989
1984
1993
1991
1979
1992
1998
1979
1993
1988
1997
1984
1983
1988
1982
1991
1981
1985
1992
1982
1983

6.04
6.20
6.34
6.37
6.42
6.50
6.52
6.53
6.57
6.63
6.64
6.76
6.77
6.85
6.95
6.97
7.01
7.34
7.37
7.41
7.45
7.49
7.49
7.61
7.86
7.89
7.90
7.92
7.94
7.95
7.99
8.11
8.13
8.14
8.20

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
22
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

0.010
0.031
0.052
0.073
0.094
0.115
0.135
0.156
0.177
0.198
0.219
0.240
0.260
0.281
0.302
0.323
0.344
0.365
0.385
0.406
0.427
0.448
0.448
0.490
0.510
0.531
0.552
0.573
0.594
0.615
0.635
0.656
0.677
0.698
0.719

1980
1999
1985
1995
1980
1990
1984
1979
1988
1981
1982
1995
1992
valeur seuil =

8.25
8.39
8.43
8.96
9.39
9.39
9.49
9.73
9.83
9.91
9.93
9.95
9.96
6.00

36
37
38
39
40
40
42
43
44
45
46
47
48

0.740
0.760
0.781
0.802
0.823
0.823
0.865
0.885
0.906
0.927
0.948
0.969
0.990

[m3/s]

Nombre de va

Coefficients a et b
d'une loi exponetielle !!!

paramtre de posit
paramtre d'che

paramtre lam
Correction
de a et b :

paramtre de position annual


paramtre d'chelle annual

probabilit cumule de non dpassem


variable rduite de Gum

[-]

variable rduite
de Gumbel u
[m3/s]

dbit observ
[-]

probabilit cumule
de non-dpassement
annualise
[-]

-1.52
-1.24
-1.08
-0.96
-0.86
-0.77
-0.69
-0.62
-0.55
-0.48
-0.42
-0.36
-0.30
-0.24
-0.18
-0.12
-0.07
-0.01
0.05
0.10
0.16
0.22
0.22
0.34
0.40
0.46
0.52
0.59
0.65
0.72
0.79
0.86
0.94
1.02
1.11

6.04
6.20
6.34
6.37
6.42
6.50
6.52
6.53
6.57
6.63
6.64
6.76
6.77
6.85
6.95
6.97
7.01
7.34
7.37
7.41
7.45
7.49
7.49
7.61
7.86
7.89
7.90
7.92
7.94
7.95
7.99
8.11
8.13
8.14
8.20

0.042
0.045
0.048
0.051
0.055
0.059
0.063
0.067
0.072
0.077
0.082
0.088
0.094
0.100
0.107
0.115
0.122
0.131
0.140
0.150
0.160
0.171
0.171
0.195
0.209
0.223
0.239
0.255
0.273
0.291
0.311
0.333
0.356
0.380
0.407

1.20
1.30
1.40
1.51
1.64
1.64
1.93
2.11
2.32
2.58
2.93
3.45
4.56

8.25
8.39
8.43
8.96
9.39
9.39
9.49
9.73
9.83
9.91
9.93
9.95
9.96

0.435
0.465
0.497
0.531
0.567
0.567
0.648
0.693
0.741
0.792
0.846
0.905
0.967

Nombre de valeur =
moyenne =
variance =
cart-type =

48
7.79
1.36
1.17

paramtre de position a =
paramtre d'chelle b =

6.6
1.2

[m3/s]
[m3/s]

paramtre lambda =

3.20

[-]

amtre de position annualis a =


aramtre d'chelle annualis b =

8.0
1.2

[m3/s]
[m3/s]

temps de retour T =
umule de non dpassement F =
variable rduite de Gumbel u =
dbit estim Q =

30
0.97
3.38
11.9

[an]
[-]
[-]
[m3/s]

[m3/s]
[m3/s]

variable rduite
de Gumbel u
annualise
[-]

dbit observ
"annualis"
[m3/s]

dbit estim
annualis
[m3/s]

-1.15
-1.13
-1.11
-1.09
-1.06
-1.04
-1.02
-0.99
-0.97
-0.94
-0.92
-0.89
-0.86
-0.83
-0.80
-0.77
-0.74
-0.71
-0.68
-0.64
-0.61
-0.57
-0.57
-0.49
-0.45
-0.41
-0.36
-0.31
-0.26
-0.21
-0.15
-0.10
-0.03
0.03
0.11

6.04
6.20
6.34
6.37
6.42
6.50
6.52
6.53
6.57
6.63
6.64
6.76
6.77
6.85
6.95
6.97
7.01
7.34
7.37
7.41
7.45
7.49
7.49
7.61
7.86
7.89
7.90
7.92
7.94
7.95
7.99
8.11
8.13
8.14
8.20

6.64
6.66
6.69
6.71
6.74
6.77
6.79
6.82
6.85
6.88
6.91
6.94
6.98
7.01
7.04
7.08
7.11
7.15
7.19
7.23
7.27
7.32
7.32
7.41
7.46
7.51
7.56
7.61
7.67
7.73
7.80
7.87
7.94
8.02
8.10

0.18
0.27
0.36
0.46
0.57
0.57
0.84
1.00
1.20
1.46
1.79
2.30
3.40

8.25
8.39
8.43
8.96
9.39
9.39
9.49
9.73
9.83
9.91
9.93
9.95
9.96

8.19
8.29
8.39
8.51
8.64
8.64
8.95
9.15
9.38
9.67
10.07
10.66
11.94

Ajustement de la srie tronque (valeur seuil de 6.00 m3/s) selon une distribution de Gumbel

14

12

10

dbit [m3/s]

0
-2

-1

variable rduite de Gumbel u [-]

dbit observ - srie "non annualise"

dbit observ - srie "annualise"

dbit estim

Comparaison des ajustement des dbits


14

12

10

dbit [m3/s]

0
-3

-2

-1

variable rduite de Gumbel u [-]

dbit estim - maxima annuels

dbit estim - srie gonfle

dbit estim - srie tronque