Currencies Daily Report

Friday| September 13, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Friday| September 13, 2013

Highlights
Indias Industrial Production gained by 2.6 percent in month of July. th US Unemployment Claims declined to 292,000 for w/e 6 September. European Industrial Production declined by 1.5 percent in July. Asian markets are trading lower today on the back of more than expected decline in US jobless claims data yesterday increased concerns regarding QE tapering by Federal Reserve in its meeting next week. US Unemployment Claims declined by 31,000 to 292,000 for week th ending 6 September mber as against a rise of 323,000 in prior week. Indias Industrial Production gained by 2.6 percent in July as against a decline of 2.2 percent a month ago. Manufacturing Output rose by 3 percent in July from fall of 2.2 percent in prior month. Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped to 9.5 percent in August with respect to 9.6 percent in July.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on September 12, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Oct13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Oct13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Dec13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% - Yield

5850.7 19781.9 15300.64 1683.4 17463.5 1959.2 58497.8 14506.3 108.60 1363.90 22.10

-1.1 -1.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.6 -1.5 0.2 0.2 1.0 0.0 -4.4

2.7 2.9 2.4 -0.4 0.0 0.4 11.7 -0.1 0.2 -0.7 -7.3

2.7 2.9 1.2 -0.4 1.3 2.0 13.4 8.1 1.2 0.2 -5.2

9.1 8.2 14.8 17.2 7.6 0.5 -5.8 66.3 11.9 -21.2 -36.3

US Dollar Index
The Dollar Index traded on a flat note and declined marginally in yesterdays trading session on the back of more than expected decline in jobless claims ims data which is at lowest level since April 2006. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of rise in risk aversion in global market sentiments along with uncertainty over the Feds pullback in its stimulus measures during the m meeting in next week. The DX touched an intra-day day low of 81.35 and closed at 81.49 on Thursday.

7070.75 102.09

-1.3 0.0

-0.9 11.1

-9.9 11.2

-12.6 2.3

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Prev. day

as on September 12, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee depreciated around 0.2 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated on the back of fresh dollar demand from importers. orters. Further, weak domestic market sentiments exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of sustained capital inflows. Additionally, Cabinet Ministry has approved for purchase of $4.3 billion in World Bank bonds which restricted sharp fall in the Rupee. The currency touched an intra-day day low of 63.97 and closed at 63.42 on Thursday. For the month of September 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.5414.40 th crores ($835.97 million) as on 12 September ptember 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.65584.20 crores ($12419.30 million) till th 12 September 2013. Outlook In todays trade, Rupee is expected to trade on a mixed note on the back of approval from Cabinet Ministry for purchase of $4.3 billion of bonds issued by World Bank. Further, favorable industrial production and manufacturing output data will support an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside will be capped or reversal can be seen on account of weak global markets rkets along with strength in the DX.

Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Sep13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Sep13 Futures (MCX-SX)

81.49 63.42 63.94 63.94

0.0 -0.2 0.49 0.52

-1.4 3.9 4.26 4.28

0.3 -3.4 4.26 4.28

2.6 -12.9 15.61 15.62

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Sep13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for September 13, 2013 Support 63.60/63.20 Resistance 64.40/64.70

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Currencies Daily Report

Friday| September 13, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro witnessed fall of around 0.1 percent in yesterdays trade as a result of negative economic data from the region. . Further, weak global market sentiments added downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside was cushioned on account of weakness in the DX. The Euro touched an intra-day low of 1.3259 and closed at 1.3 1.3297 on Thursday. German WPI declined by 0.6 percent in August as against a decline of 0.3 percent in July. French CPI gained ned 0.5 percent in August as compared to a decline of 0.3 percent in July. Italian Industrial Production declined by 1.1 percent in July as compared to a gain of 0.2 percent in June. Industrial Production declined by 1.5 percent in July as compared to a gain of 0.6 percent in June. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to trade lower on the back of weak global market sentiments. Further, strength in the DX will act as a negative factor. Additionally, , decline in industrial production data in yesterdays trade will exert downside pressure on the currency currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Sep13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down 84.80/84.40 85.40/85.80

Euro (% change)
Last Prev. day

as on September 12, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Sep 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Sep13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.3297 84.32 84.3 84.3

-0.1 -0.2 -0.73 -0.73

1.4 2.6 3.20 3.25

0.3 -3.7 3.20 3.25

3.4 -15.8 19.10 19.05

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

valid for September 13, 2013 Support Resistance

GBP (% change)

as on September 12, 2013

Last

Prev. day

WoW

MoM

YoY

$ / GBP (Spot)

1.5804 100.245 101.07

-0.07 0.07 0.28 0.71

1.4 -2.59 6.33

2.3 5.67 6.33

-1.6 12.72 41.71

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound traded on a flat note and declined around 0.1 percent in the yesterdays trading session due to weak global market sentiments. However, weakness in the DX cushioned sharp fall in the Sterling Pound. The currency touched an intra-day day low of 1.5777 and closed at 1.5804 on Thursday. Outlook In todays trade, we expect Pound to trade on a negative note taking cues from weak global market sentiments. Further, strength in the DX will also add downside pressure for the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Sep 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for September 13, 2013 Support 101.00/100.60 Resistance 101.60/101.90

GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Sep13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Sep 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

101.06

0.74

6.33

6.33

41.67

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Friday| September 13, 2013

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen en appreciated around 0.3 percent in the yesterdays trade due to weak global market sentiments that led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. The Yen en touched an intra intra-day high of 98.99 and closed at 99.54 on Thursday. Outlook With sentiments remaining weak in the global markets will lead to increase in demand for the low yielding currency, , rise in the Yen is expected. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Sep 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for September 13, 2013 Support 64.20/63.90 Resistance 64.90/65.20

JPY (% change)
Last

as on September 12, 2013 Prev day WoW MoM YoY

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Sep13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Sep13 Futures (MCX-SX)

99.54 0.637 64.34 64.34

-0.3 0.65 1.53 1.51

-0.6 -3.38 1.43 1.40

1.4 0.89 1.43 1.40

28.0 -10.21 -27.67 -27.68

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on September 13, 2013

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

ECOFIN Meetings Eurogroup Meetings Core Retail Sales m/m PPI m/m Retail Sales m/m Core PPI m/m Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Business Inventories m/m

Euro Euro US US US US US US

All day Day 1 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:25pm 7:30pm

0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 82.6 0.4%

0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 82.1 0.0%

Medium Medium High High High Medium High Medium

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