Topic 2: Climate Projections in the Philippines

Presented by: Thelma A. Cinco

Presented at Training of Trainers on DRR/CCA for local Partners (DRR/CCA ToT), January 9, 2013 Assistant Weather Services Chief, CAD, PAGASA/DOST

Source: Paul Chan, IMSG

Climate Prediction Framework

Centuries Decades

Scenarios

Climate Change.

Forecast Uncertainty

Outlook

Years

Anthropogenic Forcing

Forecast Lead Time

Predictio n Guidance Threats Assessments

Climate Variability
Months 2 Weeks

Seasons

Boundary Conditions

Weather
1 Week Days Hours Minutes Applications

Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination

Initial Conditions

Protection of Life & Property

Hydropower

State/Local Planning

Fire Weather

Water Management

Water Resource Planning

Transportation

Space Applications

Adapted from: NOAA

Environment

Recreation

Energy

Ecosystem

Agriculture

Commerce

Health

Definition of terms

Climatic conditions that are representative of the present day or recent climatic trends for a given period of time in a specific geographic area. It describes average conditions. (Observed Data or control period). Example: period :1961-1990 1971-2000

Definition of terms
Defining the Baseline Two important roles in climate scenario construction: o serves as a reference period from which estimated future change in climate is calculated. o used to define the observed present day climate with which climate change scenario information is usually combined.

Definition of terms

In general usage, it can be regarded as any description of the future and the pathway leading to it. However, a more specific interpretation has been attached to the term "climate projection" by the IPCC when referring to model-derived estimates of future climate.

Definition of terms Climate Climate projection prediction/forecast

What are emission scenarios?

What is Climate Change Scenarios?

Based on different plausible pathways of future:

Development of the world

Population growth and consumption patterns Standards and life sTyphoonle of living Energy consumption & energy sources (e.g. fossil fuel usage) Technology change Land use change

The SRES Scenarios

Storyline A1 Description Very rapid economic growth; population peaks mid-century; social, cultural and economic convergence among regions; market mechanisms dominate. Subdivisions: A1FI reliance on fossil fuels; A1T reliance on non-fossil fuels; A1B a balance across all fuel sources Self-reliance; preservation of local identities; continuously increasing population; economic growth on regional scales Clean and efficient technologies; reduction in material use; global solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability; improved equity; population peaks mid-century Local solutions to sustainability; continuously increasing population at a lower rate than in A2; less rapid technological change than in B1 and A1

A2 B1

B2

What are climate models?

Climate Models

1A.15

What is downscaling and why do we need to downscale?

Because there is a mismatch of scales between what climate models can supply and what environmental impact models require.

300km

Impact models require ...

50km

10km

Prepared by Elaine Barrow, CCIS Project

Point

Global Climate Models supply...

1m

PRECIS stands for "Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies."

PRECIS is based on the Hadley Centre's regional climate modelling system. PRECIS was developed in order to help generate high-resolution climate change information for as many regions of the world as possible.

freely available to groups of developing countries in

order that they may develop climate change scenarios

GCM versus RCM

HadCM3 resolution 2.5 x 3.75

PRECIS resolution 0.44 x 0.44

Representation of the Philippines in different model resolution

25 km

50 km

300 km

Developing Climate Projection for the Philippines

Global Model Used

United Kingdom model : HadCM3Q0 resolution 2.5 x 3.75 downscaled to 0.22 x 0.22 (25 km x 25 km) A1B Medium-range emission scenario

German model ECHAM4 Resolution 2.8 x 2.8 downscaled to 0.22 x 0.22 (25 km x 25 km) A2 - High-range emission scenario

PRECIS SIMULATION RUN IN PAGASA

Validation of the Observed and Simulated Seasonal Mean (JJA) Rainfall (1971-2000)

Validation of Results:
Validation of Observed and Simulated Baseline Rainfall and Mean Temperature (1971 - 2000)
12.0 10.0
Rainfall (MM)

35.00 33.00
Mean Temperature (oC)

31.00 29.00 27.00

8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Months Observed Rainfall 1971 - 2000 Observed Mean Temperature 1971 - 2000 Simulated by Model Rainfall 1971 - 2000

25.00 23.00 21.00 19.00 17.00 15.00

Simulated by Model Mean Temperature 1971 - 2000

Climate Projection for the Philippines (2020,2050 & 2100)

Projected Change in annual mean temperature Medium-range Emission A1B Scenario

Projected Change in Seasonal Mean Temperature

SEASON
Dec-Jan-Feb (DJF) Mar-Apr-May (MAM)

Medium-range Emission Scenario 2020 0.8 to 1.0 2050 1.6 to 2.2

0.9 to 1.3
0.8 to 1.3 0.8 to 1.1

2.0 to 2.5
1.6 to 2.6 1.5 to 2.2

Key Findings

Jun-Jul-Aug (JJA) Sep-Oct-Nov (SON)

Warm months becoming hotter

Projected Change in Seasonal Mean Temperature Medium -range Scenario(A1B) for 2020 (black) and 2050 (red)

Season DJF

2020

2050

0.8 to 1.0 0.8 to 1.3 0.8 to 1.3 0.8 to 1.1

1.6 to 2.2 2.0 to 2.5 1.6 to 2.6 1.5 to 2.2

L U Z

MAM JJA SON

Greatest increase
2020 MAM Iloilo North Cotabato 2050 JJA Surigao del Norte Agusan del Norte VALUE

V I S

VALUE 1.3 1.3

M I N

2.6
2.5

Projected mean temperature increase (inC) under high-range and medium-range emission scenarios in 2020 and observed baseline (1971-2000 )
PROVINCES
DJF

Example: How to use

BASELINE OBSERVED
MAM JJA SON

HIGH-RANGE EMISSION SCENARIO

DJF MAM JJA SON

MEDIUM-RANGE EMISSION SCENARIO

DJF MAM JJA SON

Region 1
ILOCOS NORTE

25.3 23.1 20.5 25.0

28.1 25.7 22.9 27.4

28.3 25.4 22.8 26.9

27.4 24.8 22.2 26.4

0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7

0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9

0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8

0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8

0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9

1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1

0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9

0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0

ILOCOS SUR
LA UNION PANGASINAN

Projected seasonal mean temperature (DJF) for Ilocos Norte in 2020 under a medium range emission scenario is computed as: Ilocos Norte DJF(2020) = 25.3 + 0.8 = 26.1

Projected Change in Seasonal Mean Rainfall(%)

Dry seasons becoming drier. Wet seasons becoming wetter.

Medium-range Emission Scenario 2020 Dec-Jan-Feb (DJF) Mar-Apr-May (MAM) Jun-Jul-Aug (JJA) Sep-Oct-Nov (SON) -0.4 to 54.3 % -0.2 to -33.3% -0.4 to 43.1% -0.4 to 30.0% 2050 -0.1 to-25.1-% -1.4 to -39.8% -0.7 to 72.5% -0.5 to 39.0%

Projected Change in Seasonal Mean Rainfall Medium -range Scenario for 2020 (black) and 2050 (red)
Projected Change (%) Season DJF MAM JJA SON
2020 -26 to 54 2050 -53.2 to 6

-33 to 6 -9.3 to 36
-6.0 to 23

-23.2 to 18 -7.8 to 28.2

-34.2 to 8.1

L U Z

V I S M I N

RAINFALL 2020 REDUCTION(%) INCREASE (%) MAM DJF PANGASINA NCR -33.3 N 54.3 LAGUNA -31.5 ZAMBALES 34.2 RIZAL -30.7 JJA ILOCOS SUR 36.3

2050 REDUCTION(%) INCREASE (%) MAM JJA RIZAL -39.8 ILOCOS SUR 58.1 NCR -38.5 BENGUET 63.1 AGUSAN NUEVA DEL NORTE -36.5 VIZCAYA 36.1

Monthly Rainfall Projections for Medium-range emission scenario (A1B) By Climate Typhoonpe
Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)
under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0 Baguio
1600.0 1400.0
Rainfall Amount (mm) Rainfall Amount (mm)

Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)

under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0 Casiguran
900.0 800.0 700.0 600.0

1200.0
1000.0 800.0
OBS 2020 2050

500.0
400.0 300.0 200.0
OBS 2020 2050

600.0
400.0 200.0 0.0

100.0
0.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)

under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0 Iloilo
600.0
Rainfall Amount (mm)

Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)

under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0 Hinatuan
900.0 800.0

500.0
Rainfall Amount (mm)

400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 0.0

OBS 2020 2050

700.0 600.0

500.0
400.0 300.0 200.0
OBS 2020 2050

100.0
0.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)

under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0 Dumaguete
900.0 800.0
Rainfall Amount (mm)
900.0 800.0

Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)

under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0 Davao

700.0
Rainfall Amount (mm)

600.0

700.0 600.0

500.0
400.0 300.0 200.0
OBS 2020 2050

500.0
400.0 300.0 200.0
OBS 2020 2050

100.0
0.0

100.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

0.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Manila
Annual Mean Temperature (C)
Manila (1901 - 2010)
30.0 29.5 29.0

Mean Temperature (C)

28.5 28.0 27.5 27.0 26.5

Annual Mean Temperature 5-year moving average Linear (5-year moving average)

y = 0.0201x + 26.513

26.0
25.5 25.0

1906

1911

1926

1931

1949

1954

1959

1969

1974

1984

1989

1994

2004

YEAR

An increase of 2.21 C from 1901-2010 (110 years)

2009

1901

1916

1921

1936

1964

1979

1999

Manila
Comparison of the 30-years average of MeanTemperature for Manila
28.5 28.0
TempearutreC

27.5 27.0

26.5
26.0 Manila

1901-1930 26.9

1911-1940 27.2

1951-1980 27.6

1961-1990 27.8

1971-2000 28.2

1981-2010 28.3

Manila
Rainfall Anomaly in Manila
Period: 1865-2010 (depature from 1971 to 2000 normal values)
2000

Rainfall Anomaly (from 1971-2000)

1500

5 yr moving ave

Rainfall Amount (mm)

1000

Linear (5 yr moving ave)

500 0 -500

-1000 -1500

1865 1870 1875 1880 1885 1890 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Manila
Comparison of 30 years Average Mean Rainfall for Manila
2500 2000 1500 1000 500

0
1901-1930 1911-1940 1951-1980 1961-1990 1971-2000 1981-2009

Mean Monthly Rainfall (mm) for Manila

600.0
Rainfall Amount (mm)

500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 0.0 JAN FEB 7.9 9.1 5.8 13.8 MAR 11.1 14.4 4.4 15.8 APR 21.4 19.8 5.3 39.1 MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

NORMAL 7100 19.0 Nuetral EL NINO LA NNA 14.1 15.4 21.8

165.2 265.0 423.2 486.0 330.7 270.9 129.6 75.3 152.8 265.5 382.0 494.7 335.3 223.7 111.5 56.6 101.5 226.5 576.1 429.8 375.9 169.7 89.3 47.8 187.1 313.4 293.3 430.6 389.4 276.7 175.4 89.2

Climate Change Projection for Manila

Climate Change Projection for Port Area, Manila

Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)
under Medium-range Emission Scenario (A1B) PortArea (Manila)
700.0
Rainfall Amount (mm)

600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 0.0

OBS 2020 2050

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Climate Projection for Cagayan de Oro

Mean Temperature Cagayan de Oro Month

Jan Feb Mar Apr
May

MEAN
Observed 1971-2000

Projected Change (%) 2020 2050

BIAS CORRECTED PROJ CHANGE

TMEAN
1971-2000

2020

2050

Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

26.7 26.8 27.4 28.3 29.1 28.4 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.2

1.1 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9

2 2.3 2.5 2.8 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0

26.7 26.8 27.4 28.3 29.1 28.4 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.2

27.8 28.0 28.5 29.8 30.5 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.1

28.7 29.1 29.9 31.1 31.6 31.1 30.9 31.1 30.6 30.2 29.8 29.2

Projected Change in Monthly Average Mean Temperature (C)

under Medium-range Emission Scenario (A1B) Cagayan de Oro
32 31

Degree Centigrade (C)

30 29 28 27 26 25 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
OBS 2020 2050

Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)

under Medium-range Emission Scenario (A1B) Cagayan de Oro
250.0

200.0
Rainfall Amount (mm)

150.0

100.0

50.0

0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
OBSERVED BASELINE (1971-2000) 2020 (2006-2035) 2050 (2036-2065)

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

What are the possible scenarios

The impacts on people will vary depending where you live impacts could include: Many people having to move to higher ground, due to flooding People having to be better prepared in tropical cyclone-risk regions

Farmers having to adapt to changing growing seasons

Hydromet Hazard and its impacts

Tropical Cyclones Damage and losses are due to: - severe winds - heavy /prolonged rainfall flooding/landslide/mudflow - storm surge - Tornado

Tropical Cyclone Hazards and its impacts

Strong Winds

Flooding due to heavy rainfall

Storm Surge

Landslide/Mudflow

MAJOR CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS

Increased temperature Increased variability of monsoon Increased risks of floods and droughts Water-stressed conditions in areas with less rainfall Sea level rise Climate surprises/shocks

Impact to Biodiversity
Global warming:
Changes species distribution Increases extinction rates Changes the reproduction timings Changes length of growing seasons for plant

Climate Change Drives Species to Extinction

Some first know victims of climate change
i. Golden toad ii. Monteverde harlequin frog

Many more predicted to follow suite due to current rate of temperature increase

Above +2C impacts will be large

0C
Food

1 C

2 C

3 C

4 C

5C

Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly developing regions Falling yields in many Possible rising yields in developed regions some high latitude regions
Small mountain glaciers disappear water supplies threatened in several areas Significant decreases in water availability in many areas, including Mediterranean and Southern Africa

Water

Sea level rise threatens major cities

Ecosystems
Extensive Damage to Coral Reefs Rising number of species face extinction

Extreme Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves Weather Events Risk of Abrupt and Major Irreversible Changes
Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system

How climate information accessed from PAGASA utilized DRR/CCA

The baseline climate information and climate projections can be used as initial data in identifying current and future climate risk in the water and agriculture sector . Seasonal Climate Forecast which is being issued on a monthly basis can be used for planning especially when there is extreme climate events. (i.e. El Nio/La Nia).

What questions do we now need to consider?

Do you know what impact climate change could have on your area?

Do your current policies, strategies and plans include provision for the impacts of climate change?
Can you identify and assess the risks from climate change to your services?

Are developments with a lifetime of more than 20 years required to factor in climate change?
Are you addressing climate change in your local Community Strategy?

Do you consider climate risk in your decision-making ?

PAGASA

Observations/Monitoring
DA EFCOS ASTI DPWH

Research, Modeling & Assessments

Academe (UP, MO )
International communities IPCC, NCAR, CSIRO, Waterlinks

national climate service

Adaptation & Mitigation Early Warning & Risk Management

 In conclusion, all activities by the DOST, in general, and the PAGASA in particular, are geared towards reducing risks and building resilient communities against a backdrop of changing climate.

Tracking the skyhelping the country

Key Findings
In the Philippines, there already are trends of increasing number of hot days and warm nights, but decreasing number of cold days and cool nights. Both maximum and minimum temperatures are generally getting warmer; Other extreme weather/climate events, Tropical Storm like intense rains have been seen to be more frequent; The trend in the number tropical cyclones greater than 150 is found to be more frequent during El Nio events.

Key Findings(continuation)
TEMPERATURE In the Philippines, there already are trends of increasing number of hot days and warm nights, but decreasing number of cold days and cool nights. Both maximum and minimum temperatures are generally getting warmer; There has been an increase in the observed mean annual temperature by 0.64 C from 1951-2010 and is projected to increase by an average 1C by 2020; The rate increase in 2035 is projected to be much faster than the rate of increase during the last 60 years; . All areas of the Philippines will get warmer, more so in the relatively warmer summer months; Annual mean temperatures (average of maximum and minimum temperatures) in all areas in the country are expected to rise by 0.9 C to 1.1 C in 2020 and by 1.8 C to 2.2 C in 2050.

Key Findings (continuation)

2. Rainfall
Reduction in rainfall in most provinces during the summer season (MAM) making the usually dry season drier , while Rainfall increases are likely in most areas of Luzon and Visayas during the southwest monsoon (JJA) and the SON seasons, making these seasons still wetter, and thus with likelihood of both droughts and floods in areas where these are projected;

Drier season becoming drier and wetter season becoming wetter and greater with time in 2020 & 2050.

KEY FINDINGS (continuation)

3. Extreme events
Projections for extreme events in 2020 and 2050 show that: Hot temperatures (indicated by the number of days with maximum temperature exceeding 35 C) will continue to become more frequent.; Number of dry days (days with less than 2.5mm of rain) will increase in all parts of the country and

heavy daily rainfall (exceeding 300mm) events will also continue to increase in number in Luzon and Visayas.