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US - Manufacturing Industry - Outlook 2014-2015

by Eduardo Petazze
By 2014 it is estimated that manufacturing output will grow 3.2% (+2.8% previous estimate), from +2.9% in 2013, with 0.7% increase in payroll
The increase in productivity is estimated at 2.3%, similar to 2013 and the use of installed capacity around 77.4%, from 76.7% in 2013
The following outlook combines manufacturing employment information, monthly published by the BLS, and the respective indices of industrial
production prepared by the Federal Reserve

Seasonally adjusted, annualized rates


2007=100
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
13M/M AR
14M/M AR
15M/M AR

Jan
83.64
84.90
90.01
93.83
96.65
98.34
102.23
-2.72%
-10.60%
-2.71%

Feb
83.50
84.87
90.01
94.37
97.27
99.80
102.85
8.08%
19.36%
7.47%

Mar
82.03
86.03
90.66
94.09
97.39
100.61
103.53
1.40%
10.28%
8.25%

Year
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
13M/M AR
14M/M AR
15M/M AR

Jan
12,560
11,462
11,620
11,837
11,982
12,061
12,138
1.72%
0.80%
1.10%

Feb
12,381
11,453
11,653
11,859
12,004
12,081
12,160
2.23%
2.01%
2.20%

Mar
12,207
11,458
11,675
11,901
12,007
12,085
12,176
0.30%
0.40%
1.67%

Year
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
13M/M AR
14M/M AR
15M/M AR

Jan
150,165
135,011
129,094
126,151
123,977
122,652
118,727
4.56%
12.75%
3.91%

Feb
148,283
134,953
129,463
125,669
123,403
121,057
118,230
-5.42%
-14.54%
-4.91%

Mar
148,811
133,193
128,782
126,481
123,291
120,113
117,614
-1.08%
-8.96%
-6.08%

Year
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Last data
Own estimate

Jan
65.74
68.21
73.62
75.89
76.40
76.19
77.56

Feb
65.74
68.31
73.65
76.17
76.78
77.16
77.87

Mar
64.70
69.38
74.19
75.79
76.75
77.61
78.22

Manufacturing (NAICS) Production Index SA


Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
81.47
80.55
80.29
81.47
82.31
82.98
86.90
88.20
88.19
88.94
89.10
89.19
90.06
90.27
90.40
91.16
91.42
91.74
94.86
94.70
95.12
95.58
95.11
95.30
97.18
97.44
97.77
97.33
98.03
98.26
100.50 101.15 101.09 100.97 101.21 101.41
103.77 104.16 104.28 104.34 104.46 104.61
-2.54%
3.30%
4.08% -5.20%
8.96%
2.79%
-1.34%
8.10% -0.80% -1.33%
2.79%
2.40%
2.79%
4.70%
1.37%
0.72%
1.29%
1.78%
Manufacturing Employment (000), SA
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
12,029 11,862 11,726 11,666 11,625 11,590
11,493 11,527 11,543 11,571 11,550 11,557
11,704 11,711 11,723 11,755 11,763 11,766
11,916 11,928 11,939 11,979 11,956 11,942
12,001 11,994 11,991 11,982 11,990 11,993
12,089 12,099 12,095 12,093 12,092 12,090
12,184 12,194 12,190 12,187 12,185 12,183
-0.60% -0.70% -0.30% -0.90%
0.80%
0.30%
0.40%
1.00% -0.40% -0.18% -0.09% -0.28%
0.74%
1.01% -0.38% -0.31% -0.21% -0.23%
N of Employees per Production Index point, SA
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
147,642 147,269 146,048 143,193 141,236 139,671
132,258 130,691 130,882 130,097 129,633 129,581
129,951 129,727 129,685 128,952 128,673 128,260
125,614 125,958 125,518 125,327 125,711 125,304
123,494 123,089 122,648 123,102 122,306 122,056
120,288 119,609 119,649 119,765 119,483 119,219
117,417 117,067 116,897 116,797 116,652 116,458
1.99% -3.87% -4.21%
4.53% -7.49% -2.43%
1.77% -6.57%
0.40%
1.17% -2.79% -2.61%
-2.00% -3.52% -1.73% -1.02% -1.48% -1.97%
Manufacturing Utilization Rate, SA (%)
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
64.37
63.76
63.67
64.73
65.51
66.17
70.21
71.39
71.52
72.24
72.49
72.66
73.70
73.84
73.89
74.45
74.57
74.73
76.25
75.96
76.14
76.36
75.83
75.84
76.47
76.57
76.71
76.25
76.67
76.72
77.35
77.67
77.58
77.40
77.47
77.50
78.23
78.36
78.34
78.29
78.27
78.28

Oct
83.10
89.26
92.22
94.90
98.71
101.75
104.86
5.66%
4.13%
2.94%

Nov
84.00
89.41
92.18
96.14
99.06
102.12
105.21
4.33%
4.48%
4.00%

Dec
Annual
83.87
82.43
89.78
87.90
92.82
91.08
96.87
95.07
99.26
97.86
102.46 100.95
105.55 104.15
2.43%
2.93%
4.11%
3.16%
4.00%
3.17%

Oct
11,540
11,557
11,773
11,947
12,011
12,097
12,185
1.82%
0.77%
0.27%

Nov
11,511
11,581
11,771
11,951
12,046
12,113
12,195
3.55%
1.60%
0.99%

Dec
Annual
11,477 11,848
11,592 11,529
11,798 11,726
11,965 11,927
12,053 12,005
12,127 12,094
12,207 12,182
0.70%
0.65%
1.33%
0.74%
1.16%
0.73%

Oct
138,877
129,472
127,659
125,891
121,680
118,893
116,204
-3.64%
-3.23%
-2.59%

Nov
137,033
129,528
127,700
124,308
121,604
118,616
115,920
-0.74%
-2.76%
-2.89%

Oct
66.39
72.82
75.01
75.39
76.93
77.63
78.34

Nov
67.24
73.02
74.84
76.24
77.06
77.78
78.47

Dec
136,840
129,114
127,112
123,517
121,431
118,348
115,653
-1.69%
-2.68%
-2.73%

Annual
143,725
131,161
128,746
125,448
122,667
119,796
116,962
-2.22%
-2.34%
-2.37%

Dec
Annual
67.26
65.44
73.38
71.29
75.22
74.31
76.69
76.05
77.06
76.70
77.89
77.44
78.59
78.24

Note: the negative rates of the indicator "number of employees per percentage point of industrial production index" means productivity gains.
Also see: US - Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders