Homework 1 Solutions

1.1.7

Statistics 134, Pitman, Fall 2012

a) P (maximum 2) = P (both dice 2) = 4/36 = 1/9

b) P (maximum 3) = P (both dice 3) = 9/36 = 1/4
c) P (maximum = 3) = P (maximum 3) P (maximum 2) = 5/36
d)

Outcome
Probability

1
2
3
4
1/36 3/36 5/36 7/36

5
6
9/36 11/36

e) Since this covers all the possible outcomes of the experiment, and these events are
mutually exclusive, you should expect P (1)+P (2)+P (3)+P (4)+P (5)+P (6) = 1.
1.3.8

a) A B = male or undeclared.
P (A B) = P (A) + P (B) P (AB) = 0.6 + 0.4 0.2 = 0.8
b) Ac = female
P (Ac ) = 1 P (A) = 0.4
c) B c = declared major
P (B c ) = 0.6
d) Ac B = female and undeclared
P (Ac B) = P (B) P (AB) = 0.4 0.2 = 0.2
e) A B c = male or declared.
P (A B c ) = P [(Ac B)c ] = 1 0.2 = 0.8
f) Ac B c = female and declared
P (Ac B c ) = P [(A B)c ] = 1 0.8 = 0.2

1.3.10

a) P (exactly 2 of A, B, C) = P (ABC c ) + P (AB c C) + P (Ac BC)

= (P (AB) P (ABC)) + (P (AC) P (ABC)) + (P (BC) P (ABC))
= P (AB) + P (AC) + P (BC) 3P (ABC)
b) P (exactly 1 of A, B, C) = P (AB c C c ) + P (Ac B c C) + P (Ac B c C)
= P (A) P (A (B C)) + P (B) P (B (A C)) + P (C) P (C (A B))
= ...
= P (A) + P (B) + P (C) 2 (P (AB) + P (AC) + P (BC)) + 3P (ABC)
c) P (exactly none) = 1 P (A B C)
= 1 (P (A) + P (B) + P (C)) + (P (AB) + P (AC) + P (BC)) P (ABC)

1.4.8 Assume n cards and all 2n faces are equally likely to show on top.
P (white on bottom | black on top)
50% 12
P (white on bottom and black on top)
=
= 50% 1 +20%
= 5/9
P (black on top)
2
1.4.10

a) Let Ai be the event that the ith source works.

P (zero work) = P (Ac1 Ac2 ) = 0.6 0.5 = 0.3
P (exactly one works) = P (A1 Ac2 ) + P (Ac1 A2 ) = 0.4 0.5 + 0.6 0.5 = 0.5
P (both work) = P (A1 A2 ) = 0.4 0.5 = 0.2
b) P (enough power) = 0.6 0.5 + 1 0.2 = 0.5

1.5.4

a) P (T0 |R1 ) =

P (R1 |T0 )P (T0 )

P (R1 |T0 )P (T0 )+P (R1 |T1 )P (T1 )

(.01)(.5)
(.01)(.5)+(.98)(.5)

1
99

b) P (error in transmission) = P (R0 T1 R1 T0 )

= P (R0 T1 ) + P (R1 T0 )
= P (R0 |T1 )P (T1 ) + P (R1 |T0 )P (T0 )
= (.02)(.5) + (.01)(.5) = 3/200
c)

1.6.4

a)
b)
c)

(.01)(.2)
(.01)(.2)+(.98)(.8)

1
= 393
(.02)(.8) + (.01)(.2) = 9/500
1
= 9/8000
20






1
11
1
19
9
1
19
+

= 353/8000
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
3
1
3
P (jackpot) = 20 20 20 = 9/8000, same as before;






3
3
17
1
19
3
1
3
P (two bells) = 20
20
17
+ 20
20
20
+ 20
20
20
20
1
20
1
20

9
20
9
20

= 273/8000
The chance of the jackpot is the same on both machines, but the 1-9-1 machine
encourages you to play, because you have a better chance of two bells. It will
seem that you are close to a jackpot more frequently.
1.6.6

a) p8 = p9 = = 0. (Never need to roll more than seven times)

p1 = 0
p2 = 1/6
p3 = (5/6) (2/6) (2nd different from first, third the same as first or second)
p4 = (5/6) (4/6) (3/6)
p5 = (5/6) (4/6) (3/6) (4/6)
p6 = (5/6) (4/6) (3/6) (2/6) (5/6)
p7 = (5/6) (4/6) (3/6) (2/6) (1/6) 1
b) p1 + + p10 = 1: you must stop before the tenth roll, and the events determining
p1 , p2 , etc., are mutually exclusive.
c) Of course you can compute them and add them up. Heres another way. In
general, let Ai be the event that the first i rolls are different, then pi = P (Ai1 )
P (Ai ) for i = 2, . . . , 7, with P (A1 ) = 1, and P (A7 ) = 0. Adding them up, you
can easily check that the sum is 1.
2