Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
In our opinion long exposure to the stock market should still be negligible and we
believe that the broad stock market will be slowly grinding lower throughout the
rest of the year.
Our general strategy is a combination of short positions in five stocks and a six
month call option in EURJPY (since the cross is positively correlated to the stock
market). The aggressive investor can simply short the five stocks, but that is not
our preferred strategy.
Cross Asset Research – Shorting Equities is the second part of our equity
strategy. The first part Playing a Contracting Economy advocated a strategy
composed of five long positions in single stocks and a short position in the S&P
500. From publication of the strategy on June 4, 2009, the portfolio has
generated a return of 4.25% in EUR.
Key triggers
Earnings are revised down by analysts; they seem too optimistic at the moment.
Key risks
The growth in Eastern Europe continues unabated.
A faster than expected recovery in key markets, especially Germany.
Metro trades on a price-earnings ratio of 38 vs. a peer average of 16. We do not think that this difference
is reasonable.
Trading Strategy
Sell towards EUR 30, target left open and keep a stop-loss above EUR 38.
Company description
Metro AG operates retail stores and markets products over the Internet. The Company operates cash and
carry stores, supermarkets and hypermarkets, consumer electronics stores, department stores, theme
stores, and online sales services.
1
Cross Asset Research – Shorting Equities
The stock price and index level. Interest Expense Coverage is the ratio of EBIT to interest expense.
Gearing is the ratio of net debt to shareholders’ common equity. Total debt to total assets.
Return on common equity is the ratio of net income to common Operating margin is the ratio of operating income to sales. Pre-
shareholders’ equity. tax margin is the ratio of pre-tax profits to sales.
2
Cross Asset Research – Shorting Equities
Key triggers
Failure to restructure balance sheet could very well result in the company being dissolved.
Roll-over of debt at higher interest rates. With the company already struggling enough as it is, any
additional interest expenses will do nothing but push Thomson closer to bankruptcy.
Key risks
Successful restructure of balance sheet.
With revenue growth of -14%, net losses, and no dividend payouts, Thomson does not look like a
promising turnaround case. A comparison with peers does not change this view.
Trading Strategy
Sell towards EUR 0.60, target left open and keep a stop-loss above EUR 0.72.
Company description
Thomson manufactures and distributes pre-recorded DVDs, videocassettes and movie film prints, provides
film and television post-production services, produces televisions, DVD players, home telephony, home
theater systems, set-top boxes, modems, television displays, broadcast and networking equipment and
optical components. The Company also licenses its technologies.
3
Cross Asset Research – Shorting Equities
4
Cross Asset Research – Shorting Equities
Sell Eastman Kodak (EK:xnys) – Current Price: USD 2.58
Sell Eastman Kodak on a very poor outlook.
Eastman Kodak (EK) has already fallen 85% from a 52wk high of 17.71, but nevertheless we believe that
a further deterioration in the stock price is in store for investors.
Eastman Kodak is trying to shift to a digital product line, but these products are also experiencing weak
demand with sales down 33% in Q1.
The photographic products industry is highly competitive. Digital products have especially low margins
while traditional photography products have a very uncertain outlook.
Revenues declined 9% while earnings dropped 264% in 2008.
Key Triggers:
Lower than expected company guidance.
A continuation of recent price competition in the digital products segment will hurt Eastman Kodak as
the company is in the midst of shifting into this segment.
Key Risks:
Turnaround in the digital segment, which accounts for some 32% of revenues.
Valuation metrics far below their historical averages are justified given the weak demand and poor
outlook. Better than expected numbers or guidance could drive the price up.
Eastman Kodak trades at a price-book ratio of 1.08; below the peer average of 1.55. We believe,
however, that this discount is warranted due to the negative outlook. The debt to assets and gearing
ratios are better than the peer averages, but these are solely due to recent asset sales.
Trading Strategy
Sell towards USD 2.44, target left open and keep a stop-loss above USD 3.00
Company description
Eastman Kodak Company develops, manufactures, and markets imaging products. The company provides
professional and consumer digital cameras, laser images for radiologists and photographic films for
professionals and amateurs. Kodak also provides digital services for cinematographers, document scanners,
aerial images, digital printers for commercial customers, and flat panel displays.
5
Cross Asset Research – Shorting Equities
The stock price and index level. Interest Expense Coverage is the ratio of EBIT to interest expense.
Gearing is the ratio of net debt to shareholders’ common equity. Total debt to total assets.
Return on common equity is the ratio of net income to common Operating margin is the ratio of operating income to sales. Pre-
shareholders’ equity. tax margin is the ratio of pre-tax profits to sales.
6
Cross Asset Research – Shorting Equities
Key triggers
The assumed return to profitability within the car electronic business in 2H 2009 will not take place due
to lower demand.
The capital restructuring plan of private and government injection of new capital will take longer than
first anticipated.
Key risks
Semiconductor and component output grows from new demand in advanced economies and expansion
of the Chinese market (unlikely to exceed the cyclical range with standard trends)
The reemergence of cyclical demand for PC’s, mobile handsets and other equipment within a faster than
expected recovering macroeconomic environment.
Compared to a P/B sector average of 1.24, Pioneers’ current P/B of 0.50 seems to indicate that Pioneer is
a bargain. However, Pioneer faces significant challenges as it must service its debt even though the
current cash flow to interest expense is -22.11 vs. a sector average of 11.25.
Trading Strategy
Sell towards 265, target left open and keep a stop-loss above 334.
Company description
Pioneer manufactures and sells audio and video equipment for household, industrial, and automobile use.
7
Cross Asset Research – Shorting Equities
The stock price and index level. Interest Expense Coverage is the ratio of EBIT to interest expense.
Gearing is the ratio of net debt to shareholders’ common equity. Total debt to total assets.
Return on common equity is the ratio of net income to common Operating margin is the ratio of operating income to sales. Pre-
shareholders’ equity. tax margin is the ratio of pre-tax profits to sales.
8
Cross Asset Research – Shorting Equities
Key triggers
A cut in guidance for sales in semiconductors and consumer electronics when posting earnings.
Continuously falling prices in NAND and DRAM flash spot prices as iPhone production levels wear off.
The boost in capital is not enough to overcome the crisis in the long run and the fixed cost burden will
force Toshiba keep producing NAND and DRAM at current price levels and possibly use some of the free
capacity to enter into low price competition in other areas.
Key risks
Semiconductor supply deficit led by inventory adjustments (adjustment back to production levels) could
lead in the short term to higher prices on NAND and DRAM.
Restructuring plans are expected to lead fixed costs lower by 15-25% in the next two years.
Toshiba’s P/B is currently 2.52 vs. a sector average of 1.61 which makes Toshiba look expensive.
Furthermore Toshiba could face challenges ahead with servicing the debt. The company’s interest
coverage is -12.15.
Trading Strategy
Sell towards 330, target left open and keep a stop-loss above 390.
Company description
Toshiba manufactures electrical and electronic products.
9
Cross Asset Research – Shorting Equities
The stock price and index level. Interest Expense Coverage is the ratio of EBIT to interest expense.
Gearing is the ratio of net debt to shareholders’ common equity. Total debt to total assets.
Return on common equity is the ratio of net income to common Operating margin is the ratio of operating income to sales. Pre-
shareholders’ equity. tax margin is the ratio of pre-tax profits to sales.
10
Cross Asset Research – Shorting Equities
General
These pages contain information about the services and products of Saxo Bank A/S (hereinafter referred to as “Saxo Bank”). The material is
provided for informational purposes only without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. Hence, no
information contained herein is to be construed as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any
security, financial product, or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction in which such an offer or
solicitation, or trading strategy would be illegal. Saxo Bank does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information or analysis
supplied. Saxo Bank shall not be liable to any customer or third person for the accuracy of the information or any market quotations supplied
through this service to a customer, nor for any delays, inaccuracies, errors, interruptions or omissions in the furnishing thereof, for any direct or
consequential damages arising from or occasioned by said delays, inaccuracies, errors, interruptions or omissions, or for any discontinuance of
the service. Saxo Bank accepts no responsibility or liability for the contents of any other site, whether linked to this site or not, or any
consequences from your acting upon the contents of another site. Opening this website shall not render the user a customer of Saxo Bank nor
shall Saxo Bank owe such users any duties or responsibilities as a result thereof.
11