Académique Documents
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Michael W. Curran
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Education:
Mathematics and Physics, with honors Washington University
Employment:
1968-Present: Founder, President and CEO Decision Sciences Corporation Before 1968: Research Monsanto; Physics Instructor Washington University
Professional Organizations:
AACE: Chair Decision and Risk Management Committee; Editorial Advisor Cost Engineering magazine infORMS, PMI, SCEA, Sigma Xi
Developer of:
Range Estimating, Bracket Budgeting, codeveloper of Risk Established Value (REVTM)
Publications:
Handbook of Budgeting, Effective Project Management through Applied Cost and Schedule Control, Professional Practice Guide to Risk, et alia
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Affiliations:
Former Advisor Entrepreneurial Business Center, University of Missouri
Recognition:
AACE Technical Excellence Award Whos Who in Science and Engineering, Whos Who in Finance and Industry Whos Who in America, Whos Who in the World
What is risk?
Risk An ambiguous term that can mean any of the following:
All uncertainty (threats and opportunities); Downside uncertainty (a.k.a. threats); or The net impact or effect of uncertainty (threats minus opportunities)
The convention used in any work should be clearly stated to avoid misunderstandings.
AACE Internationals Risk Management Dictionary
Copyright 2003 Decision Sciences Corp.
Overview
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The steps in RM
Identify Analyze Mitigate Control the Risk
Growth of interest in RM
AACE Articles on RM
180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s
Copyright 2003 Decision Sciences Corp.
Flawed RM
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Frequently looks valid Introduces more risk Is a juicy litigation target Becoming ever more common
Engineering firm
Going from 60% to 90% confidence required but $31,000 in $26 million early stage project (Firm teaches risk analysis to its clients!)
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Manufacturing company
$4 million risk error in $89 million project
Lack of commitment and understanding Belief that Risk Management is primarily a technical consideration rather than a psychological and political one Belief that risk cannot be adequately controlled
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Belief that Risk Management is primarily a technical consideration rather than a psychological and political one
Inordinate focus on
software statistics industry expertise
Undue attention paid to decisions technical characteristics Results vary with decision size or complexity Risk surprises occur regularly
Copyright 2003 Decision Sciences Corp.
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Managers exposed to decision analysis u Ardent management commitment u True risk analysis expertise (per person)
25 to 50 risk analyses performed per year Solid cross-industry experience Multiple business function experience
Risk Management culture in place u Business risk also analyzed u Benchmark and grade no excuses!
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Copyright 2003 Decision Sciences Corp.
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Predictable results Monitoring to determine mid-course corrections Risk-based action plans developed, analyzed, and implemented No hiding behind assumptions and scope creep Periodic releases of contingency to improve overall capital effectiveness
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Chemical Company
Circumstances
Goal was to achieve cost underruns in 95% of projects $1.00 over budget is classified as an overrun
Results of RM
More than 500 projects completed and analyzed 96% of those projects underran
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Results of RM
Over $600 million of projects finished and analyzed 92% of those projects underran Total of $600 million was underrun by about 1% All projects that overran did so by less than 10% No actual bottom line materialized outside its range Contingency was released whenever Risk < Budget
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Results of RM
Audit found 3X more risk than original risk analysis Contingency underfunded by $12 million -- $11 million of which was expended Settled dispute between contractor and U.S. General Accounting Office (GAO) Increased confidence of U.S. Congress in its weapons appropriation process Process was mandated for joint U.S. and European weapons development
Copyright 2003 Decision Sciences Corp.
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Information Technology
Circumstances
Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) project Original budget: $23 million, 22 months, 12 modules
Results of RM
Exposed integration firms lack of understanding of the unique nature of risk in the project Integration firm fired due to its inability to look beyond the sales bias in its original estimate Owners staff managed project to completion by adhering to recommendations resulting from RM Actual (Predicted): $54 million, 27 months, 8 modules ERP vendor refers to this as best in that industry Lead executive promoted to CFO of holding company
Copyright 2003 Decision Sciences Corp.
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The future of RM
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Benchmarking and Grading will become de rigueur Faster, better decisions with limited and faulty data Expanded use will heighten profits Forensic use in the legal area will bring on better planning and control systems Risk Management will become holistic RM expertise will be ever more scarce
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More Golf
Copyright 2003 Decision Sciences Corp.
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The steps in RM
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Search through historical information? Interview key people, one-on-one? Hold a brainstorming session? Hold a risk oriented brainstorming session facilitated by a risk expert?
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Disadvantages
Historical information tends to be voluminous It is often corrupted in unknown ways It is rarely accessible in a risk friendly format
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Disadvantages
One-on-one interviews take too much time Conflicting opinions can be difficult to resolve quickly Lack of interaction among the key people leads to a lower quality of data
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Disadvantages
It may be difficult to schedule at a suitable time for all It will not surface many important facets of risk if it is not conducted by a risk expert
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Many tools exist for analyzing risk in PM. However, there is but one tool deserving of first place on that list, simply because it provides for a comprehensive analysis of the fourth variable in management decision making: probability.
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Adventures of a Mathematician is Ulams highly readable autobiography. He died in 1984 at age 75.
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Analyzing risk is useless if it does not lead to an action plan that enhances the chance of success in decision making. Development of a good action plan is frequently characterized by creativity and synergy (group think) that results in a list of specific actions which will:
Protect opportunities Remove or reduce threats
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The final step, controlling risk, is simply a dedication to do the obvious: repeat Steps 1-3 throughout the life cycle of the given decision process. Two tools can play a vital role in that regard:
Benchmarking the RM process itself Grading the risk analysis data streams
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Explosive growth in the application of Risk Management has led to a shortage of qualified risk analysts To become even a minimally qualified risk analyst requires taking the following steps or assuring yourself you have already done so
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Sharpen your people skills as much as possible u Acquire an understanding of modern management science methods and tools
Decision Analysis Influence Diagrams Decision Trees Monte Carlo Simulation Stochastic Scheduling Discrete Event Simulation
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Seek out a mentor to work with you, if only occasionally or for short periods of time For the first ten or so analyses, choose fairly simple problems, not those having high importance and visibility like an M&A in which the CEO has keen interest Conduct post mortems on your mistakes Perform as many analyses as possible
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The steps in RM
Identify Analyze Mitigate Control the Risk
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