A p p l i c a t i o n of conceptual r a i n f a l l - r u n o f f models in a complex program Jaroslav Urban, Jif Novk, Jir Strnsky

Abstract. The program of the complex solution consists of two parts. The first part includes the evaluation of rainfall data from individual stations, determination of the direct runoff and effective rainfall, computation of parameters and instantaneous unit hydrograph for the selected model and criteria of coincidence between the observed and regenerated hydrographs. The second part of the program enables the runoff hydrograph to be predicted from the given rainfall data. The program has a structure in which the main program MASTER SEGMENT controls individual blocks solving corresponding basic problems. Each of these problems may be solved separately, either with the data obtained from the previous blocks or with any other data given as the input. Application des modles conceptuels de la transformation des prcipitations en dbit dans un programme complexe Rsum. Le programme de la solution complexe est compos des deux parties suivantes : La premire partie comprend l'valuation des donnes pluviomtriques aux stations individuelles, la dtermination de l'coulement direct et de la pluie efficace; le calcul des paramtres et de l'hydrogramme unitaire instantan concernant le modle choisi et les critres de conci- " dence entre les hydrogrammes observs et les hydrogrammes calculs. La deuxime partie du programme permet la prdtermination de l'hydrogramme de ruissellement comme fonction de l'averse donne. Le programme principal MASTER SEGMENT dirige des blocs individuels pour rsourdre des problmes de base. Chacun de ces blocs peut tre calcul indpendamment en utilisant des donnes obtenues par les blocs prcdents ou provenant d'une autre source.

The complex solution of a catchment model is divided into two parts. The first part represents the derivation of the representative instantaneous unit hydrograph of the selected conceptual model from the observed rainfall and runoff data. The second part includes the program for forecasting the runoff hydrograph according to the given rainfall data and actual conditions in the basin. The whole program consists of eight basic problems or blocks. (1) Computation of the time distribution of mean rainfall over the catchment area (subroutine B in Fig. 1). (2) Determination of the direct runoff hydrograph (subroutine C). (3) Determination of the effective rainfall (subroutine D). (4) Determination of the time-area-concentration curve (subroutine E). Transformation of the effective rainfall by this curve. (5) Determination of parameters of the model and computation of the instantaneous unit hydrograph (IUH) (subroutines F, G). (6) Regeneration of the runoff hydrographs due to the given effective rainfall. Computation of the coincidence criteria (subroutine H).

248

Jaroslav Urban, Jiff Novak and Jiff Strnsky

(7) Determination of the representative parameters for a given basin under given natural conditions (subroutine J). (8) Prediction of the runoff hydrograph from given input data. The output from each block can be used automatically as the input into the next corresponding block until the whole solution is complete. The input into each block can also be given directly. 1. CALCULATION OF THE TIME DISTRIBUTION OF MEAN RAINFALL OVER THE CATCHMENT AREA The basic input data are: the time series of rainfall depth observed at individual stations, the area of the basin, the relative importance and number of individual stations. The output is the time series of the average depths of rainfall over the whole basin. Different methods can be used to derive the required output: the method of weighted mean of all raingauge stations, the method of isohyets, etc. The method of weighted mean (Thiessen method) was used in the program presented here. 2. DETERMINATION OF THE DIRECT RUNOFF HYDROGRAPH The following basic input data are required: the observed runoff hydrograph ; the data necessary for the selected method of direct runoff separation. The output data include: the direct runoff hydrograph, the baseflow hydrograph, the volume of direct runoff. There are various methods from which to derive the output data. All of them depend on the separation method used in the model's solution. The first variant of our program used the separation line composed of two straight lines. It can be defined as a horizontal line beginning at the lowest point of the hydrograph and drawn up to the point just under the peak of the hydrograph. It then continues as the second straight line connecting this latter point and the point on the descending limb estimated as the end of direct runoff. 3. DETERMINATION OF THE EFFECTIVE RAINFALL The solution of this problem is based on the following input data: the direct runoff volume ; the time series of the average depth of rainfall over the basin ; other characteristics and data depending on the method used for the determination of effective rainfall. The output of this block is the time series of effective rainfall over the basin. Different methods of separation of the effective rainfall can be used in the program, e.g. straight line separation based on the principle of the constant <P-index; separation based on the theory of infiltration capacity curves; a separation method combining the initial loss and one of the above-mentioned methods. The constant tp-index method can be used for the separation of rainfalls of short duration and great intensity. This method was used in the first variant of the presented program.

Application of conceptual rainfall-runoff models

249

4. DETERMINATION OF THE TIME-AREA-CONCENTRATION CURVE AND ITS TRANSFORMATION OF THE EFFECTIVE RAINFALL The time-area-concentration curve can be defined by a general formula w(t) = 1 A A at where A is the area of the basin, and t is the travel time. The empirical curve can be derived by the analysis of geomorphological and hydraulic conditions of the basin. The synthetic curves frequently used instead of the empirical ones can be denned by simple mathematical formulae and they are represented by various geometrical shapesrectangular, triangular, semielliptic, parabolic, as a trigonometric function, etc. The input data necessary for the solution of this block are as follows: the duration of the unit time interval ; the ordinates of the time-area-concentration diagram (if the empirical curve is required) or the index of the synthetic shape and the concentration time; effective rainfall. The output of this block is the effective rainfall transformed by the time-areaconcentration curve. Transformation of the effective rainfall X{t) by the time-area-concentration curve w(t) can be realized by the numerical solution of the convolution v(t) = w(t)*X(t)

If the time-area-concentration diagram is not required for the model (e.g. the Nash model), the output equals simply the input effective rainfall X{t). 5. DETERMINATION OF PARAMETERS OF THE MODEL AND INSTANTANEOUS UNIT HYDROGRAPH (IUH) The following basic input data are required: the coordinates of the direct runoff hydrograph, the coordinates of the transformed effective rainfall, the number of ordinates of the IUH. The outputs of this block are the parameters of the model and the coordinates of the IUH. The parameters of the models can be computed by different methods: moment methods in various modifications, methods of integral transforms, methods of empirical correlation, optimization methods, etc. The program presented derives the parameters of the models by the moment methods which are sufficiently objective and easy for digital computers. The moments are computed by numerical integration ; the detailed description of the solution is given in the references. 6. REGENERATION OF THE RUNOFF HYDROGRAPHS DUE TO THE GIVEN EFFECTIVE RAINFALL; COMPUTATION OF THE COINCIDENCE CRITERIA The input data into this block are equal to the input and output data described in the previous block 5. The output data are the regenerated hydrographs and the coincidence criteria of individual pairs of hydrographs (observed and regenerated).

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Jaroslav Urban, Jirf Novk and Jin Strnsky

The regenerated hydrograph is computed by the convolution of transformed effective rainfall and IUH. There is no unique method of comparing the observed and computed hydrographs, except classical statistical measures such as various modifications of the correlation coefficient (Sarma, et al, 1973), integral square error, etc. Four new variants of the criterion based on weighted deviations of individual ordinates were introduced into our program to evaluate the importance of deviations according to the corresponding magnitudes of discharge: Two variants of weighted hydrograph deviations are

M 6/

ai

E Q, E Mfi, Qt\
A,=
i= 1

Qv E Qi and two variants of weighted square hydrograph deviations are

V

-11/2

E (Qi Qd2 S1
=

L!

(,l J
1/2 (=i

S, =

Q Q,
where Q is the discharge, AQ is the deviation of Q, N is the number of ordinates. The Schultz hydrological deviation (1967) was used as the fifth criterion. In addition to those comparisons of whole hydrographs, simple criteria comparing the ordinates and abscissae of peaks can also be taken into consideration. 7. DETERMINATION OF THE REPRESENTATIVE PARAMETERS FOR A GIVEN BASIN UNDER GIVEN NATURAL CONDITIONS The input data into this block are equal to the input and output data of blocks 5 and 6 including the corresponding characteristics and conditions in the basins. Output data are representative parameters corresponding to the given conditions. The solution is based on the following principle. The observed hydrographs, analysed above, are divided into several groups corresponding to specified characteristics and conditions in the basin. Each group can be further treated in two ways: (1) the representative parameters are simply computed as the average of parameters computed in block 5 ; (2) the representative parameters are computed as the values minimizing the value of the chosen criterion.

Appjication of conceptual rainfall-runoff moctete

251

8. PREDICTION OF THE RUNOFF HYDROGRAPH FROM GIVEN INPUT DATA The basic input data are: the time series of depth of rainfall at individual stations, the number and weight of the stations, the area of the basin, characteristics of the conditions in the basin, parameters of the model (if not given, they will be computed empirically in this program), the time-area-concentration curve. The required output is the runoff hydrograph. The solution consists of similar steps as described in the previous blocks. (1) Computation of the average depth of rainfall over the basin: the procedure is the same as in block 1. (2) The determination of volume of effective rainfall is based on the method of multiple correlation:

V~f(P,mc,wc)
where P is the depth of precipitation, mc is the set of meteorological conditions, wc is the set of hydrological and geomorphological conditions. (3) The distribution of effective rainfall can be estimated by the methods described in block 3. (4) The transformation of the effective rainfall by the time-areaconcentration curve can be computed as described in block 4. (5) The computation of the model parameters (necessary only if the parameters are not given in the input data) from the equations derived by the multiple empirical correlation between the parameters and characteristics of the basin. (6) The computation of the direct runoff hydrograph: the same procedure as in block 6. (7) The estimation of the total runoff hydrograph consists of the addition of the computed direct runoff and the estimated basefiow. The structure of the program is based on the overlay system. The MASTER SEGMENT, according to the input requirements, invokes corresponding segments (blocks) within the operational memory, which are used for the solution of individual problems. High-speed media (operational memory, magnetic disc) are used for the transfer and storage of data ; the file 'DATA' stored on the magnetic tape is used for the transfer of information between individual computer runs. Figure 1 shows a simplified flow chart illustrating the structure of the first part of the program (derivation of the parameters and IUH). More detailed flow charts of subroutines F, G, H and J are presented in Figs. 2, 3 and 4. Figure 2 illustrates the solution of subroutines F and G, i.e. the computation of the model parameters n and K and the ordinates of the IUH. The subroutine H described in Fig. 3 will be solved only if regeneration of the hydrograph or the computation of representative parameters of the basin from previous data is required. Figure 4 illustrates the solution of the subroutine J. The optimum parameters giving the best criteria of coincidence between the actual and computed hydrographs will be obtained by the iterative process described in Figs 2, 3 and 4.

OVERLAY

program
OF

FORMATION AND MJRA.NSE.MENT FILE "DATA" ;

STORE FILE "DATA" COMPUTATION OF AVERAGE RAINFALL (USING e . g . THICS.SEN METHOD1 ; PRINT; COMPUTATION OF DIRECT RUNOFF HVDROGRAPH; PRINT; STORE IN FILE "DATA" COMPUTATION OF THE TIME DISTRIBUTION OF EFFECTIVE RAINFALL ; PRINT; STORE IN FILE "DOTA" _T COMPUTATION OF THE TIME-AREA CURVE ; TRANSFORMATION OF EFF. RAINFALL; PRINT;STORC IN FILE "DATA" COMPUTATION OF PARAMETERS OF THE MODEL: PRINT; COMPUTATION OF IUH-

IP R.P. WANTED &0 TO "H"; PRINT ; STORE IN FILE "DATA" REGENERATION OF RUNOFF, COMPUTATION OF COINCIDENCE CRITERION^; IF R . P . WANTED &0 TO "J"; PRINT; STORE IN FILE "DATA" TERATIVE COMPUTATION OF R E P R . PARAMETERS GO TO "G" E L i E PRINT

_l
( &T0P )
FIGURE 1. Simplified flow chart of the first part of the program, showing the derivation of the parameters and IUH.

Application of conceptual rainfall-runoff models

253

SUB. G" J

COMPUTE : IUH ORDINATES FROM THE GIVEN OR ESTIMATED PARAMETERS PARAMETERS, N " AND K" BV MOMENTUM METHOD

<D

PRINT OUT:

., N" , K"

SUB. F" J

SUB.G" J

FIGURE 2

254

Jaroslav Urban, Jif Novk and Jirf Strnsky

SUB.. H" J

COMPUTE : 1. REGENERATED RUNOFFS 2- COINCIDENCE

CRITERIONS

PRINT OUT: 1- ESTIMATED RUNOFFS I. COINCIDENCE CRITR\ONS

FIGURE 3

Application of conceptual rainfall-runoff models

255

iUB. J" J

COMPUTE : 1. DERIVATIVES OF I U H ACCORDING TO THE P A R A M E T E R ! N'^.K" 1- D I F F E R E N C E S B E T W E E N R E M . MOD COMPUTED R U N O F F S 2>. C O R R E C T I O N S n A.N" , /M<"

COMPUTE: MEAN V A L U E S OF N " AND K."

COMPUTE: i. CORRECTED RUNOFFS 2. COINCIDENCE C R I T E RION.

N = N + UN K = K + AK

PRINT OUT: i. CORRECTED N"AND K" 2. CORRECTED RUNOFFS 1. COINCIDENCE CRITE RIONS

'l = i + 1

sua.

M"

FALSE

PRINTING , G " * FA.USE

sua. . J " ^

FIGURE 4

256

Jaroslav Urban, Jif Novk and Jiff Strnsky

This whole program structure can solve both a great variety and complexity of problems. Furthermore, individual computations may be accomplished at different times. The program may be enlarged by involving further blocks. The program is written in 1900 FORTRAN for ICL 1900 and ODRA 1300 computers. This paper represents a part of the research programme of the Water Research Institute in Prague (Urban et al., 1973; Novk and Urban, 1975).

REFERENCES Novk J. and Urban, J. (1975) Metody stanoveni parametr Nashova modelu a jejich vliv na polohu vrcholu OJH. (Methods of determination of the Nash model parameters and their influence on the IUH peak). Conference on 100 Years of Hydrology on the Territory of Czechoslovakia, Prague. Sarma, P. B. S., Delleur, J. W. and Rao, A. R. (1973) Comparison of rainfall-runoff models for urban areas. / . Hydrol. XVIII (3/4). Schultz, G. A. (1967) Bestimmung theoretischer Abflussganglinien durch elektron. Berechnung v. Niederschlagskonzentration u. Retention HYREUN-Verfahren. Disertation a.d.THMiinchen. Urban, J., Novak, J. et al. (1973) Matematick modelovni srzko-odtokovho procesu. (Mathematical models o.the rainfall-runoff process). Report of the Water Research Institute, Prague.

Principles of hydrological forecasting by multichannel Wiener f i l t e r i n g Klaus Wilke

Abstract. A multichannel filtering method is described, which relates a set of input channels, particularly precipitation and discharge, to one or more selected output channels, using a linear, time invariant multichannel Wiener filter. The evaluation of this filter is based on (unnormalized) autocorrelations and cross-correlations of the input and output channels. A special multichannel forecasting filter is applied to the discharge of the River Rhine. Principes de la prvision hydrologique par le filtre multicanaux Wiener Rsum. La mthode pour le filtrage multicanaux expose dans cet article forme, par un oprateur multicanaux, un nombre quelconque de fonctions d'entre, par exemple des prcipitations et des coulements, vers un ou quelques dparts. Le Wiener filtre est linaire et temps constant. Le calcul de cet oprateur canaux multiples est bas sur les autocorrlations et les corrlations croises des entres et des dparts. Un filtre multicanaux spcial est employ pour la prvision de l'coulement du Rhin.

INTRODUCTION In the analysis of hydrological time series, the application of filters is well known. So, digital phase distortionless frequency-discriminating filters may be developed in terms of the time or frequency domain in order to pass only the suitable chosen band of frequencies. In the general case, a realizable filter (with no anticipation function) is assumed to be a linear time invariant operator relating a given input to a desired output by means of discrete convolution. The filter operator will be the unit impulse response. The desired output series may be the direct runoff of a catchment ; then, the causative rainfall excess as input is related to this runoff by a filter, known as the instantaneous unit hydrograph (IUH). The IUH represents the impulse response function of the catchment system. However, the rainfall excess as well as the direct runoff were computed under certain hydrological and geographical aspects, and hence care must be exercised in defining these single-channel time series. The treatment of multichannel filtering has received little attention in recent hydrological literature. The present contribution should be regarded as an effort in this direction. BASIC CONCEPTS OF DIGITAL WIENER FILTERING General remarks The following, briefly discussed method of multichannel filtering, used as a forecasting model, is based on the mathematical theory of continuous time

258
z^t)

Klaus Wilke

df(t)
Squarer

Squarer

Am

F I G U R E 1. Schematic diagram for the design and application (dashed line rectangle) of a multichannel Wiener filter with two input and two output time series.

series by Wiener (1949). Levinson (1949) adapted the Wiener method to the case of finite-length single-channel discrete filter operators. Multichannel generalization of the so-called Wiener-Levinson algorithm has been carried out by Wiggins and Robinson (1965). For application, the following assumptions must be at least approximately satisfied: the time series applied to the filtering model are stationary, the filtering process is linear and time invariant, and the mean-square error method is used as the approximation criterion. The multichannel filtering method In applied hydrological time series analysis, we are primarily concerned with discrete time series of finite length, sampled at a uniform rate. Therefore, the following derivations are carried out in discrete terms. A set of input time series, the multichannel input, may be related by a known linear filtering system to a set of output series, the multichannel output. Figure 1 illustrates the mathematical operations of the multichannel filtering method schematically (dashed line rectangle). Two single-channel input series are fed into the multichannel filtering system, represented by four single-channel impulse responses, to yield two single-channel output series. The input series xt(t), for example, is fed into the filter gxi(t) as well as into glx(t), where the first subscript denotes the output channel, and the second one the input channel that is being convolved. The argument t, also used as a subscript, may be an integer-valued time variable. Either output series is the sum of all the filtered inputs J i ( 0 = 0ii(O*Xi(O + 0i2(O*x 2 (O 3 ^ 2 (0 = 9zi{t)*^i{t) + g22{t)*x2(t) or in matrix notation &*x, The symbol * denotes the discrete convolution process.
(2)

(1)

Principles of hydrological forecasting

259

y, and x, are column vectors, representing the convolved and the input time series, respectively. The multichannel filter is given by the (2) x (2) matrix g r , representing the single-channel response functions: gr 0110) 9ii (0 9ii(t) 922 (0
(3)

The scalar operations, used in single-channel convolution, must be replaced by the corresponding matrix operations. The essential physical background is that each input series will be excited by different response functions applied to each single output. Thus, nearly every cascaded hydrological model may be replaced by this multichannel filtering method. The advantage of this method is that all the interrelationships between the inputs and the corresponding outputs are taken into account, as will be outlined in the next section. Design of the digital multichannel Wiener filter The multichannel input x, and a 'desired' multichannel output zt may be given, where each coefficient of the column vector zr represents a single-channel output series (see Fig. 1). The convolved output y, of equation (2) is now called the 'actual' multichannel output. The mean values may have been removed from x t and z,. That filter system gr has to be designed, the actual output of which is the best approximation to z,. As mentioned already, the filter design criterion is based on the least squares method. Thus, the task is to minimize the energy existing in the difference between the desired and the actual multichannel output. As depicted in Fig. 1 (two inputs and two outputs), the differences, called error series, are dl(t) = zt(t)-yi(t) * = 12 (4)

The energy in each error series is given by the sum of the squares: 8i = I d y? ( 0
t

* = 1,2

(5)

The total energy is called the sum of the individual energies: E = et+e2 Analogous to equations (2) and (3), we may write (6)

E= { E [ z ( 0 - I 9ij(t)*Xj(t)T}
=i

(7)

j=i

The last equation may be extended to I output channels, / = 1, 2, ..., /, and to / input channels, j = 1, 2, ..., / . That multichannel filter gtJ(t) will be called the 'optimum' multichannel Wiener filter, which relates to the smallest value for E, say Em-m. One will get Emin by setting the partial derivatives of E with respect to all filter coefficients equal to zero: ^ = 0 3gtj(t) i = l,2,...,/ i = l , 2 , ..., J (8)

260

Klaus Wilke

The filtering system g-^t) (=g,) represents / / s i n g l e channel response functions, where each function may consist of M+1 coefficients {t = 0, 1, ..., M). Thus, equation (8) must be evaluated via IJ(M+1) coefficients. The minimizing procedure leads to the following system of matrix-valued equations, called the system of normal equations [detailed derivations are given by Robinson (1967) and Treitel (1970)]:

[gogl gAf]-

**(0) <M-i)
^(-M)

Mi) <M0)
^(-M+l) ...

*xx(M) *xx(M-l) (MO) ... *z(M)] (9)

= [*z*(0) *(1)

Each coefficient of the multichannel filter g t , r = 0, 1, ..., M, represents a (I) x (7) matrix, analogous to equation (3). This filter is multiplied by a (M+1) x (M+1) correlation matrix of the input series, where each coefficient is a (/) x (/) matrix, representing the (unnormalized) autocorrelations and cross-correlations for the corresponding time shifts. The product of these matrices is equal to the (1) x (M+1) cross-correlation matrix, where each coefficient is a (/) x (J) output-with-input (unnormalized) cross-correlation matrix. For example, the matrix-valued coefficients <J>XI(0) and <|>zx(0), for the time shift x = 0, are fcc.CO) 4>1X(0) ... <lw(0)(10)
XJXJ (0).

+(0) =

*(0) =

(ii)

ixxx.CO) i w ( 0 )

... i w ( 0 ) .

The solution of the system of normal equations [cf. equation (9), using the generalization of the Wiener-Levinson algorithm by Wiggins and Robinson (1965)], yields the optimum multichannel Wiener filter g r . Application Precipitation of various stations and the runoff of a catchment system may be chosen as multichannel input, and single-channel output, respectively. Because of the input-with-input, and output-with-input correlations, changes and interrelationships of the beginning, duration, and concentration of the precipitation, as well as variations of the baseflow, retention, and infiltration, were taken into account. Thus, the multichannel filter represents the precipitationrunoff relations, with respect to each input series (Wilke, 1975). The cascaded model of examining variations between previous and succeeding changes of discharge, related to upper and lower sections of a river system, as carried out by Body et al. (1968), could be analogously performed by the multichannel filtering method. With backwater effects especially, this method is perhaps preferable. Multichannel forecasting, based on the existence of 'travel times' between several river sections of the River Rhine, thus yielded good results.

Principles of hydrological forecasting

261

APPLICATION OF A SPECIAL FORECASTING MULTICHANNEL WIENER FILTER TO THE DISCHARGE OF THE RIVER RHINE The desired output of the multichannel Wiener filter is selected as the time advanced multichannel input ( / = / ) , i.e. (12) where a is an integer-valued time variable, denoting the amount of advance (expressed in sampled time units). Thus, equation (11) and the corresponding matrix-valued coefficients of equation (9) will be replaced by the time advanced input-with-input correlations of equation (9), analogous to equation (10). Assumed statistical regularities are the basis of this special forecasting method, yielding advanced values, by knowing only past values of time. In the following example such a filter is applied to the changes in mean discharge of the River Rhine from May 1962 to February 1963. Using the
[M3/SJ 3000

-^*^

JUNE

JULY

RUG

NOV

DEC

JflN

FEB

FIGURE 2. Mean daily discharges of the River Rhine at stations: 1 Kaub, 2 Mainz, 3 Worms, 4 Maxau, and 5 Rheinfelden, for the period from May 1962 to February 1963.
CDNVOLUTIDN INTERVAL FDR MULTICHANNEL 300 M3/S FILTERING

C KM 3

r
fv u

546.2 498.3 i 443.4 4

y*

TA^W^A^*

*/^

^3

V'V

"M*A'
"VySfu*. -vv

KB MZ

{^"Ay\s
V

^* srr*V

-V
y.
**\F

WD
MX

362.3 ~

^ly^-AAr-VV^

'^Vv^-'v

147.7

If*

^J*^"** / v A v " * V lw*[jw r*r*Av

RF

o ">
JUNE JULY RUG SEP DCT NDV DEC JflN FEB

FIGURE 3. Changes of daily discharges at five stations on the River Rhine for the period from May 1962 to February 1963.

262

Klaus Wilke

changes of discharge causes no loss of generality. The use of absolute values sometimes yields even better results, because in most cases the changes will be of higher frequency than the slope of the absolute data, as can be seen by comparing Figs. 2 and 3. Figure 2 shows the mean daily discharges of the gauging stations at Rheinfelden (RF, 147.7), Maxau (MX, 362.3), Worms (WO, 443.4), Mainz (MZ, 498.3), and Kaub (KB, 546.2), all situated on the River Rhine (in brackets: abbreviation of the station name used in all the figures, and the distance, in km,

= 3oo n3/s

a =i

ff^y

^ff*iwr^fo* ?V*'v*'W'Wf 'nrtftn^rtf*^ p w*t^jfff

^ Y

KB

a=i
^y^

-'TA"W^V*

^vAV^

-^w ~ > ^ v 4 fr-*y**fr. MZ

a=i

yV*-"*-

^Jp^t.:-...,

W D

a=i

||v

<^**iP'Afefr >t&p>fr^\[ty'

AAJ^MM^VA"*

irv
SEP DCT NOV DEC

**Vv'/--v Afcy,

MX

JUNE

JULY

RUG

JflN

FEB

a =2

.rAv/^y^^/w^v^

^ ^ ^

-AP
M.'. r A * * *

S W V - V AV Ay*'

KB
MZ

a =2

fffW y ^ U i " A*rVV ^//Vfo"^ ^/^V^W*' A**/

^A/^A/^V

*w/ArvA * Wv*~

^-^""*

a =2

"^W/ A

/ v ^

W O

a =2

VvT^^v^ *\*S\At A:

AAf"^\KJ

i / * s '^u-... ^"V/ ^ r

s\nf"\

MX

JUNE

JULY

BUG

SEP

DCT

NDV

DEC

JRN

FEB

F I G U R E 4. Forecasting error for a = 1 and a = 2 days for five stations on the River Rhine for the period from May 1962 to Febraury 1963.

Principles of hydrological forecasting

263

as related to a reference point at Konstanz). The corresponding changes of discharge are depicted in Fig. 3. The multichannel Wiener filter, which has to relate the changes in discharge of these five gauging stations to the same but advanced data, was calculated from corresponding data of the years 1964-1967. a was chosen to be a = 1, and a = 2, forecasting the values for 1 and 2 days in advance, and the filter length was M = 9 (10 coefficients). The resulting five single-channel filters for forecasting the data at Rheinfelden were of vanishing small order. Thus, the best approximate forecast would be the zero mean. Therefore, we used the remaining 20 single-channel Wiener filters (/ = 5, / = 4) to forecast the changes of discharge of the four gauging stations cited above. After carrying out the stepwise multichannel convolution of the data shown in Fig. 3, the forecasted changes were added to the corresponding last (known) discharges, to get the forecasts for the next 2 days. In Fig. 4, only the differences to the actual discharge, called forecasting error series, are depicted for a = 1, and a = 2. This special Wiener filter yields satisfying results because the forecast is carried out with a minimum amount of information, as no tributaries were taken into account. It may be of interest to note that eliminating the present travel times (see Fig. 2) by shifting the appropriate data back in time before calculating the multichannel operator, will still yield the same forecasting results. The forecast for a = 1 may be denoted as very good, resulting in a small error (see Fig. 4). In other words, it is possiblewithout taking only the travel times into accountto compute a good estimation of x r + 1 by using the statistical regularities, based on the multichannel correlations of the changes in discharge. The autocorrelations of the changes in discharge, calculated from the data of Fig. 2, vanish for T ^ 3 days. Consequently, the change in discharge for 'today' will not be correlated with the corresponding change of the past third day. Therefore, the forecast of sudden events (as occurred in December 1963) may be impossible for a > 2. More specifically, the increase of discharge will be delayed (see Fig. 4).

CONCLUSION The multichannel filtering method has a wide range of applications for the analysis of hydrological time series. We can use this method to extrapolate missing discharge data. The multichannel operator may be then evaluated from precipitation and/or discharges of other stations as inputs and the previous data of the specific gauging station as single-channel output. By special selection of the input and output series, we are able to compute the precipitation-runoff relations as well as their changes. In general, we may analyse changes in (multichannel) physical systems, especially those caused by human influence. It may be worthwhile to mention that the multichannel filtering method, especially the above forecasting method, is an appropriate tool for analysing and forecasting economic and qualitative hydrological time series.

264

Klaus Wilke

REFERENCES Body, K., Erdoes, G. and Szesztay, K. (1968) Some problems of streamflow forecasts based on information theory. Symposium, The use of analog and digital computers in hydrology, vol. 1, pp. 280-288 (Proceedings of the Tucson Symposium 1968): IAHS Publication No. 80. Levinson, N . (1949) The Wiener RMS (root mean square) error criterion in filter design and prediction. Appendix B in The Interpolation, Extrapolation, and Smoothing of Stationary Time Series (edited by N. Wiener); MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachussetts. Robinson, E. A. (1967) Statistical Communication and Detection: Ch. Griffin, London. Treitel, S. (1970) Principles of digital multichannel filtering. Geophysics 35, 785-811. Wiener, N. (editor) (1949) The Interpolation, Extrapolation, and Smoothing of Stationary Time Series: MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachussetts. Wiggins, R. A. and Robinson, E. A. (1965) Recursive solution to the multichannel filtering problem. J. Geophys. Res. 70, 1885-1892. Wilke, K. (1975) Mehrkanalfilterung als Prognoseverfahren. Submitted for publication.

The application of hydrological models in analysing the impact of urbanization Eric F. Wood and Brendan M. Harley
Abstract. In many parts of the world, the demand for urban areas has resulted in adverse hydrological impacts on new development areas and on existing developments. These adverse impacts arise from building in flood exposed areas, in removing natural storage areas, in increasing the percentage of impervious areas, and in building flood alleviation or protection that have an adverse effect downstream. To analyse successfully the impacts from urbanization, a series of hydrological models were developed which include a stochastic rainfall generator, a deterministic catchment model, a deterministic flood routing model and a flood damage model. These models analyse various development scenarios by generating synthetic rainfall events which are fed into the catchment model, where a development pattern has been specified. The outflow hydrographs from the catchment model are then input into the flood routing model which calculates the flooding in the lower part of the basin. Implicitly, the flood routing model evaluates the effectiveness of the flood protection works. The flood damage model takes as its input the depth of flooding from the routing model and evaluates the flood damages for a particular downstream development pattern. This set of hydrological models was successfully applied to the Rio Bayamon basin in Puerto Rico, USA. L'application des modles hydrologiques l'analyse de l'impact de l'urbanisation Rsum. En plusieurs parties du monde, la demande de terrains urbaniser a des consquences hydrologiques nfastes dans les zones rcemment dveloppes, et en cours de dveloppement. Ceci rsulte de la construction d'immeubles sur les terrains exposs aux inondations, de l'limination de zones constituant des retenues naturelles, de l'augmentation de la proportion de terrains impermables, et de l'amnagement d'ouvrages contre les crues ayant des effets nfastes l'aval. Afin de pouvoir analyser avec succs les effets de l'urbanisation, une srie de modles hydrologiques ont t mis au point. Ils comportent : un modle susceptible de gnrer des sries stochastiques de prcipitations, un modle dterministe du bassin, un modle dterministe de l'volution des dbits de l'amont l'aval des ondes de crues, et enfin, un modle des dommages ds aux inondations. Ces modles tudient les scnarios divers du dveloppement des crues en gnrant des chutes de pluies synthtiques qui sont introduites dans le modle de bassin pour lequel un schma de transformation pluie/dbit a t dtermin. Les hydrogrammes des dbits provenant du modle de bassin sont alors introduits dans le modle d'volution des dbits (flood routing) qui calcule les caractristiques des inondations dans la partie aval du bassin. Implicitement, le modle d'volution des dbits value l'efficacit des travaux de protection contre les inondations. Le modle pour l'valuation des dommages prend comme entre, la hauteur d'inondation provenant du modle d'volution des dbits, et value les dommages causs par les inondations pour un schma d'amnagement particulier l'aval. Cet ensemble de modles hydrologiques a t appliqu avec succs dans le bassin du Rio Bayamon Porto Rico, USA.

INTRODUCTION Traditionally, hydrologists have made flood design decisions on analyses based on statistical distribution theory. Such procedures consisted of (1) choosing a statistical model for flood events, (2) estimating the parameters from the historical record, and (3) choosing a design flood based upon some T year flood event, often the 100 or 200 year event. Such flood frequency analyses have the basic assumption that the probability of a flood of a particular

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Streamflow Synthesis

Seasonal Basin Simulator Model)> River Network Flood Routing Model

Rainfall Analysis and .QfiBEtifia. Catchment ModeJJ Two-Dimensional Flood P l a i n Model Flood Damage (Accounting) Model

Demographic AForcasts

Backwater Analysis

FIGURE 1.

Resource Analysis Inc. hydrological simulation system.

magnitude is constant and does not change with time. Thus, basins which change physically with time, due to urbanization of the basin or channelization of the river cannot be analysed effectively by distribution theory procedures of flood frequency analysis. This poses a difficult problem for the hydrologist, who must analyse and evaluate the adverse hydrological impact of urban developmentsboth in the new development and on existing areas. These adverse impacts arise from building in flood exposed areas, in removing natural storage areas, and in building flood structures (like dikes or channelization) that have adverse impacts downstream. In order to consider fully the many issues involved in the analysis, evaluation and design for urbanizing basins, it is important to develop a variety of hydrological and decision models. Figure 1 shows the extent of an hydrological analysis system that has been used successfully in analysing the effects of urbanizing basins. This paper will concentrate on five models that were developed and applied to the Rio Bayamon, in Puerto Rico. The five models were: (1) a rainfall analysis and generation model, (2) an overland flow catchment model, (3) a channel flood routing model, (4) a flood damage accounting model, (5) a flood management decision model. The models were applied in the following manner: Due to the dynamic nature of the basin, the hydrological analysis started with the rainfall process. Using US Weather Bureau hourly rainfall data a series of synthetic storms were generated which were statistically indistinguishable with respect to intensity, frequency and duration to the historical storms. Storms of interest were then input into a deterministic,. overland flow catchment model where existing or proposed land use data describe the physical characteristics of the basin. The catchment model is used to model the upper part of the basin (see Fig. 2). The output of this model is a set of flood hydrographs at the upstream end of the lower basin, where the flood plain starts. These hydrographs are then routed down the existing river network, or a proposed modification of it, to obtain projected depths of flooding due to a chosen

The application of hydrological models

Ca) (b)

267

FIGURE 2. of the basin.

(a) The Bayamon basin (100 mi2); (b) schematic diagram of the lower part

storm. Therefore, the first step in the analysis is to go from a selected, synthetically generated rainfall event to projected depths of flooding conditional upon a proposed combination of land uses and flood control alternatives. The second step in the analysis is to evaluate the hydrological impact, as represented by the depth of flooding in the lower part of the basin. This impact is first measured by a flood damage accounting model. Using existing or proposed land use data and unit damage functions, the monetary impact of the particular event is estimated. No attempt at evaluating the social impacts were made. The impacts due to a combination of proposed land uses and flood control alternatives were then input into the management decision model that tried to identify dominant planning strategies. Overall, the series of models were fairly successful in evaluating planning alternatives. More time was spent on developing the hydrological models; subsequently it is felt that they are the strongest components of the system. The management decision model could be improved and extended to include such items as social impacts and the tradeoffs between additional land use controls or flood control structures and the social costs of disruptions due to floods or limits on land uses. In the next section of the paper each model is described briefly, with the results for the Rio Bayamon study. RAINFALL ANALYSIS AND GENERATION The rainfall analysis and generation model was used to produce two 200-year traces and one 40-year trace of storm events. These generated storms are believed to be representative of the future storms that may occur over the Bayamon catchment and, therefore, serve as a basis for hydrological studies. For each generated storm, rainfall data were 'sampled' and stored for each

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Eric F. Wood and Brendan M. Harley

of six locations throughout the catchment. In all, the 40 largest storms that occurred during each generated trace were stored in the file system. Furthermore, these 40 sets of storms were stored for the six different rainfall averaging times used to rank the storms in each trace. The total number of storm hyetographs stored in the file system for subsequent processing through the catchment model or for frequency analysis was 3 tracex sorts'/tracex40 storms/sortx6 hyetographs/storms=4 320 hyetographs. To generate these storms it was necessary to estimate parameters for the storm rainfall generation on the basis of historical rainfall data. Although the detailed information requirements of the rainfall generator are documented elsewhere (Resources Analysis Inc., 1974), it is important to discuss the assumptions made to supply the required information in this particular application. The available rainfall data included: (1) 23 years of hourly historical rainfall data at Old San Juan, USWB gauge 668 808. This is the nearest hourly raingauge to the Bayamon basin, (2) daily rainfall data for stations in and near the Bayamon basin. These data had previously been used in an island-wide rainfall study for PRASA, the results of that study included a rainfall generation program for annual, seasonal, monthly and daily data at any location or set of locations on the island (Schaake et ai, 1972). It was believed that the above information could best be used by assuming that the depths of rain during storms over the Bayamon catchment were related on the average to depths of storms at San Juan, by the ratio of long-term monthly mean rainfall in the catchment to the long-term monthly mean rainfall at San Juan and that storm durations, and times between storms, were statistically distributed in the catchment according to the same probability distributions as at San Juan. Finally, it was assumed that appropriate estimates of the true values of the parameters of all distributions and the tru.. mean monthly rainfall depths could be made with the available data. Therefore, the individual storm event parameters required by the storm rainfall generator were estimated by the rainfall analysis program from data available on the Old San Juan hourly rainfall data tape, augmented with information from the PRASA rainfall generator and daily rainfall data from within the catchment area. Figure 3 illustrates some of trie intensity-durationfrequency curves from the rainfall generator and compares them to some historical data. Included among the output of the rainfall generation model are values of
HOUR 7 HISTORICAL HOURLY DATA 1/1937 -12/1967 a GENERATED 25 YR. SYNTHETIC DATA o FROM USWB TPAO

10 RECURRENCE

100 INTERVAL (YEARS)

FIGURE 3.

Intensity-duration-frequency curves.

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269

TABLE 1.

Initial set of storms selected for simulation Rank of storm (1st 200- year trace)

Averaging time (h): sort:

1 1 2 3 1 47 790

2 2 1 2 3 19 790

3 3 1 2 7 8 87

6 4 1 3 13 2 14

12 5 1 4 24 3 2

24 6 2 4 28 3 1

Storm 8/158 9/85 4/122 8/147 9/28

the 'storm response index' (SRI) for each storm and for each averaging time. The SRI index was developed to evaluate the severity of a storm and it is a function of the intensity and duration of the event. Only a few of the many storms generated could be analysed with the catchment, router and damage models. Initially, a set of five storms was selected to get some preliminary feeling for how the catchment responds to different storms and to help to determine which additional storms, if any, should be processed through these models. The initial set of storms appears in Table 1. The rank of any given storm depends upon the averaging time defining the SRI. Different averaging times are analogous to difference in catchment characteristics depending upon location in the catchment, changes in land use or development of flood control alternatives such as channel improvements, flood control reservoirs, or detention storage reservoirs. This means that different storms will cause a greater response, depending on catchment characteristics. It follows that no single design storm exists that always ranks at the same level for all averaging times and hence for all catchment conditions. In other words, a storm that may cause the 100-year peak discharge may cause a 25-year peak stage in the flood plain. Conversely, the storm that causes a 100-year peak stage in the flood plain may only cause a 25-year peak discharge from the catchment. Also, many different storms may each lead to the 100-year peak discharge but give different peak stages in the flood plain. The storm rainfall generation model was developed because there is no way to create design storms that give reliable estimates of the frequency of occurrence for hydrological events downstream. The costs of using this rainfall generator and the procedures explained below to estimate flood frequency curves are not substantially greater than the costs of creating design storm events by current methods and processing these through the catchment router and damage models. Therefore, the rainfall generator offers itself as a practical tool for hydrological studies. CATCHMENT ANALYSIS The rainfall events generated as described in the previous section were then applied to a model of the Bay anion basin in order to estimate the resulting

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Eric F. Wood and Brendan M. Harley

hydrographs throughout the basin. The catchment model is a deterministic simulation model designed to represent the rainfall-runoff process in a river basin. The model operates through a series of linked routing elements which are connected in a manner analogous to the natural flow paths in the basin. The routing elements available for use at this time include an overland flow (catchment) element, a streamflow element and a reservoir element. The internal operation of the catchment and streamflow elements is governed by the kinematic wave equation while the reservoir operation is controlled by classical reservoir techniques. The current model is an extended version of an earlier model developed by Harley et al. (1970). The model of the Bayamon basin was relatively detailed with approximately 150 elements (overland flow and stream segments) used to simulate the behaviours of the prototype system. For ease of handling, the basin was normally divided into four sub-basins which were: (1) Rio Bayamon from Cidra to Bayamoncito, (2) Rio Bayamon from Bayamoncito to Highway No. 2 in Bayamon, (3) Rio Guaynebo basin, (4) Rio Hondo/Q. Santa Catalina basin. These are shown in Fig. 2. The outputs from the various sub-basins were stored in the data file system and used as input to the next downstream sub-basin, or to the flood routing model. Using the initial five storms, it was found in studies of correlation between the SRI and the computed peak discharge from the catchment model that catchment response was best correlated with the storm response index for sort 3 (i.e. SRI3). Therefore, some additional storms were selected according to the top-ranked values of SRI3 and some lower ranked storms. Thus, 11 of the generated storms were simulated during the 'production' phase of the study. These events and their data identifiers are listed in Table 2. The relevant catchment parameters (length of flow, slope, roughness, and degree of imperviousness) were estimated for the 1970 development condition on the basis of US Geological Survey Quadrangle maps, aerial photographs
TABLE 2. Complete set of storms ultimately selected
Rank of storm Average time (h): sort:

1 1 1 2 47 3 # 88 12 14 5 16 35

2 2 3 1 19 2 * 32 4 6 5 7 15

3 3 7 1 8 2 # 31 4 3 5 6 9

6 4 13 1 2 3 # 39 5 4 8 6 9

12 5 24 1 3 4 * 49 7 5 12 11 14

24 6 28 2 3 4 # 54 7 5 15 14 17

Storm 4/122 8/158 8/147 9/85 4/118 9/144 8/109 9/26 9/151 8/101 8/125

Contained in 2nd 200-year trace

The application of hydrological models

271

and a limited amount of field work in the basin. The relevant land uses for all parts of the basin were obtained from the land inventory tapes from the Division of Inventory, Department of National Resources. Thus, the estimation of input parameters for future development (actual or proposed) is done by generating a new land use data tape without having to change the catchment model's input check. Peak discharge frequency curves can be estimated, in principle, by processing a large number of generated storms through the catchment model with accuracy improving as the length of the generated storm trace increases and as the number of storms processed through the catchment model increases. Unfortunately, this direct approach is inefficient and uneconomical in many cases. A more efficient and more economical three-step approach was used in this study. First, the initial set of storms selected from the rainfall generator were processed through the catchment model and the peak discharge rates obtained. The results of this first step appear in Table 3. Second, a simplified model of catchment response to rainfall was created so as to estimate catchment model peak discharge for additional storms without having to actually process these storms through the catchment model. The first simple model involved a correlation between the SRI and the catchment model peak discharge of the form (5 = a SRI* (1)

This regression was fitted using the initial five storms for each lag time T. Using as a goodness-of-fit criterion the standard deviation of the ratio of the estimated error (QQ) to Q, the best relation occurred for a 3-h averaging time. This gives an indication of how the lag time of the Bayamon basin is related to the different SRI averaging times. The second simple model involved a correlation between Q and the maximum response from a cascade of linear storage reservoirs (LSR). Let LSR {t1, n) denote the maximum response to a given storm of a cascade of n reservoirs having a total lag time equal to tl hours. The catchment model response can be estimated by correlation between Q and LSR by the relation 0 = aLSR(fi,n) 6 (2)

Values of a and b in equation (2) were estimated for different values of tx and n. A search over tx and n for the highest correlation between Q and LSR gave values of7] = 2.0 and =20. Values of a and b were a=0.373 and 6= 1.092. Figure 4 illustrates this relation and shows the original set of data
TABLE 3. Storm 4/122 8/158 8/147 9/85 9/28 Catchment model peak discharges for initial set of selected storms Peak discharge Q(ft3/s) 49 000 72 000 37 500 43 000 17 500

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Eric F. Wood and Brendan M. Harley

100.
o STORMS TO DETERMINE RELATION D ADDITIONAL STORMS

CI- LSR(20,2) (CFSxlQOO)

-, ,

-fa

FIGURE 4

used to determine a and b as well as additional data for storms in Table 2 not used to estimate a and b. This relation is much better than the previous one between Q and SRI. Moreover, agreement between Q and Q-a LSR(?P tif is at least as good as the agreement one would expect to find between Q and the true response of the real catchment. Most importantly, it appears as if a very good relation between Q and LSR can be found by processing from four to six selected storms through the catchment model. Figure 5 shows the frequency curve of Q derived by correlation with LSR (2.0, 20). Using the largest storms in two 200-year traces and in one 40-year trace of generated storms, an almost identical curve was derived by correlation between Q and SRI3. FLOOD ROUTING IN THE FLOOD PLAIN The hydraulic behaviour of the lower end of the Bayamon basin was modelled using a one-dimensional flood routing model. The model is a deterministic simulation model of the physical process by which transient flows are routed through a single channel or an interconnected network of channels. Given a discription of the geometry of the channel system, the physical properties of the various channel reaches which make up the system and a time history of the external inputs to the system, the program produces a time history of discharge and stage throughout the system. The model is based on work previously reported by Wood et al. (1972). Floods were analysed by using, as inputs, discharge hydrographs previously generated and stored by the catchment model. The model stored maximum stages at each channel cross section and these were later used as inputs into the flood damage accounting model. This process was repeated for each of the
100.

10

-,

1ii i i i |

>

1r-

ib
RETURN PERIOD (YEARS)

T O O

FIGURE 5.

Frequency curve of Q.

The application of hydrological models

273

storm events listed in Table 2; for both the natural (original) and a current condition (with a flood express channel). There are two aspects of the modelling effort that should be briefly discussed to help facilitate an understanding of the results. 1. Network topology The flood plain area was represented as a network of channels and adjacent overbank areas. The network configurations corresponding to the natural condition is shown schematically in Fig. 2. The reach numbers shown in this figure are those used in the computer models and will be .retained here for ease of .reference. In the natural system the main channel of the Bayamon is represented by reaches 1-2-3-6-5; the Hondo and Catalina tributaries by reaches 9 and 10 respectively; while reaches 4, 7, and 8 represent natural drainage paths which, strictly speaking, are connected to the Bayamon only during high water conditions but which for modelling purposes were assumed to be connected even during low flows. In the current system the Bayamon is re-routed through a new express channel which now appears as reach 2 and 8 combined, while the Hondo and Catalina (reaches 3 and 4) are routed through the lower part of the Rio Bayamon (reaches 5 and 6). Note that in this case the main channel and tributary systems function as independent systems. 2. One-dimensional consideration One obvious limitation of the model is imposed by its one-dimensional representation of the channel hydraulics. The approximations inherent in a one-dimensional representation are generally not severe when the flow is confined to a clearly defined channel whose longitudinal dimensions are many times greater than the lateral dimensions. This condition is clearly satisfied in the Bayamon system for water surface elevations which are below flood stage. However, once significant flooding begins, the one-dimensional representation is open to more serious questioning because of the large lateral extent of flooding in the flood plain. Furthermore, the well defined channel network, which conveyed the flow prior to flooding is replaced by a much more complex and less well defined flow pattern. The flood routing model attempts to account for these effects while retaining its one-dimensionality by (1) adjusting the conveyance of the cross section and (2) adjusting the top width of the channel within the continuity equation so as to properly represent the overbank storage volume. Not all problems can be eliminated and this can, of course, be greatly alleviated by the use of two-dimensional models. At the start of this project it was felt that the state of development of such models and their cost of operations precluded their use on the Bayamon. Developments since that time have been more rapid than initially anticipated and are now approaching the point where further studies on the Bayamon should seriously consider a two-dimensional representation. SAMPLE RESULTS The router model representations of both the 'natural' and the 'current' Bayamon system were run for each of the storm events in Table 2. For

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Eric F. Wood and Brendan M. Harley

STORM 8/15S

^
NATURAL(N) CURRENT (C) 5 O HOURS 15 = 6 REACH 6 5 15 20 DISTANCE (1000 FEET)

" HOURS

S3

lb"

& 5 1000 FEET

2~

FIGURE 6. reach 6.

(a) Discharge hydrographs, (b) stage histories and (c) maximum stage for

purposes of illustration, some results are presented for the original Bayamon " channel just downstream of the Hondo and Catalina confluences. This location is of special interest because the City of Bayamon, which has suffered severe flooding, is located about here. In both the natural and current systems this is reach number 6 and will be 30 referenced. Results will be summarized for three storm events: 8/158 which was ranked first or second most severe event by all ranking criteria (see Table 2); 4/122 which was severe only for a short duration and 8/147 which was severe only for long durations. Figure 6(a) and (b) presents discharge hydrograph and stage histories for the top of reach 6. A number of important observations can be summarized: (1) There is no simple progression of results from one storm to another. While 8/158 produced the largest peak stage for the natural system, storms 4/122 and 8/147 gave almost identical results even though their ranking characteristics were completely different. It is also interesting to note that the time-to-peak stages varied significantly. (2) In the current system storms 8/158 and 4/122 produced almost identical peak discharges and peak stages. This arises from the HondoCatalina system, which has a fast response time separated from the rest of the basin. (3) The absence of a simple relationship between storm intensity or duration and peak stage indicates the complexity of the system response and raises serious questions about the use of simpler 'design storm' procedures. The negative flow in reach 6 of the natural system is caused by water backing up due to the inputs of the more quickly responding Hondo-Catalina

The application of hydrological models

275

system. The water then flows down reach 8. Limited field observations tend to support this movement even though it is difficult to verify the exact extent of this. Of considerable interest for design purposes is a comparison of the natural and current systems, which is provided in Fig. 6(c). This figure give the maximum stage along reach 6. The main conclusion from these figures is that the flood express channel does not tend to reduce significantly the level of flooding around Bayamon City. This arises from the strong influence of the Hondo-Catalina system which responds much more quickly than the main portion of the basin. One must view these results carefully. Implicit within them is the way that reach 8 is modelled during high flows. Another problem is the sudden transition from overbank storage to in-stream flow. This transition tended to occur more suddenly than would be expected. THE FLOOD DAMAGE ACCOUNTING MODEL The flood damage accounting model calculates the flood damages inflicted upon a land planning grid (for each of eight land use categories) from a particular flood event. The program takes the following as inputs: (1) maximum flood stage data from the flood routing model; (2) land use activitiesutilizing the land use planning grids established by the Inventory Branch of the Department of Public Works; and (3) unit stage-damage curves based upon the US Corps of Engineer surveys in the continental United States. The program proceeds by assigning planning grids to river reach locations; calculating the average area of each grid flooded and the depths of flooding (using elevation data from the inventory system and flood stages); and then, integrating the depths over the damage function for each land use and sums up the damages for the eight land use categories. The summation over all planning grids gives the total damage. Figure 7, which is generated by the model, presents contours of average
RIO BAYAMON 0/l_ \ RIO HONOO

BAYAMON CITY

CENTRE

FIGURE 7.

Contours of average flooding (in feet).

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Eric F. Wood and Brendan M. Harley

1000

100 RETURN PERIOD (YEARS)

FIGURE 8.

Frequency analysis results.

depth of flooding over the lower basin. These results compare favourably with known information. The total damages calculated by the model are not too informative because the data from the Inventory Branch were not up to date with respect to changes in land elevations due to new developments, lack of land value data in new development areas (for example, Levittown) that would benefit from the express channel, and the use of flood damage curves that may not be applicable to Puerto Rico. The model demonstrates its potential use in providing information for the evaluation and comparison of alternatives. The model can also be used in conjunction with the previous hydrological models to generate flood damage frequency curves. The methodology was similar to that used earlier in deriving the discharge frequency curves. Figure 8 presents the frequency analysis results for content damage of residential and industrial properties (the Inventory Branch had good data on this through extensive surveys on past floods). The curve in Fig. 8 was generated using 400 years of rainfall events. FLOOD MANAGEMENT MODEL The flood management model is a planning model based on mathematical optimization that allows an investigation of the tradeoffs between land use planning, flood plain zoning and flood control structural investment to meet population and land use goals. The decision variables specify what, if any, river controls should be built and to what size and the amounts of different types of development in each sub-area of a basin. The constraints ensure physical continuity of the runoff and river flows, calculate the sizes of controls and ensure that such sizes are feasible, ensure population requirements are met and disallow not-feasible combinations of land developments and river controls. The objective function can be specified to show the important elements of the multiple objectives involved in flood management. It can be formed as a minimization of an integrated sum of flood damages, flood control costs and land use preferences. Alternatively, it can be stated as the minimization of damage and control costs, subject to lower limits on land use areas developed and area population, or as the maximization of preferences subject to budget and damage limitations. The model itself is a mixed integer programming optimization model that is

The application of hydrological models

277

solved using the IBM software package MPSX. As the input to such a model is extensive and highly technical, a matrix generator program takes simple user specified input data and converts it to input data for the optimization step. The model has been reported in detail by Kirshen and Marks (1974). The Bayamon basin was divided into six sub-areas as shown in Fig. 2 for the purpose of representation in the flood management model. The control alternatives included two reservoir sites in the upper basin; two flood channel segments in the lower basin and land use controls. The study considered eight land use categories (urban high-density, urban medium-density, urban low-density, industrial, commercial, public, agriculture and open land) which correspond to the land use categories by the Inventory Branch of the Department of National Resources. A complete description of the runs made is not possible here but essentially alternatives of the following form were considered: the effect of not saving reservoir sites, only having one reservoir site, restricting population, giving preferences towards particular types of development (both density and location), fixed limits on land use as proposed by a land use master plan of 1985, etc. Generally, the results indicated that reservoir sites in conjunction with flood channels, will both provide the 'least cost' solution and will control urban runoff. This solution implies certain population and development controls. When population increased, the dominant solutions tend to favour low density residential land in the middle part of the basin. The flood management model was also used to compare present land use configurations and control alternatives in 1970 with those selected by the model if the year 1950 were used as a base year and a 20-year planning horizon used. Two runs of this type indicate that the development of the two upstream reservoir sites was a good strategy to have followed even earlier in the history of urbanization of the Rio Bayamon. CONCLUSIONS The hydrological models presented here provide important tools by which the impact of proposed catchment development can be effectively analysed; that is, development that will significantly alter basin characteristics. Together, the set of hydrological and decision models appear to be very successful in analysing the hydrological impacts of urbanization and in identifying dominant planning strategies so as to assist the decision makers in evaluating various plans of action.
Acknowledgments. This work was carried out under a contract between Resource Analysis, Inc. and the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, Department of Natural Resources, and the United States Office of Water Resources Research under Grant 14-31-0001-3716. The authors would like to thank their colleagues: Dr John C. Schaake, Jr currently with US Weather Bureau, NOAA; Prof. David H. Marks, Prof. Frank E. Perkins, and Mr Paul H. Kirshen all of MIT and Mr Juan Bartolomei, Mr Jose Martinez and Mr Emilio Colon of the Department of National Resources, Commonwealth of .Puerto Rico. REFERENCES Harley, Brendan M., Perkins, Frank, E. and Eagleson, Peter S. (1970) A modular distributed model of catchment dynamics. Ralph M. Parsons Laboratory for Water Resources and Hydrodynamics Technical Report 133, Dept. of Civil Engineering, MIT, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

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Kirshen, Paul H. and Marks, David H. (1974) A flood management model for urbanizing river basins. National Symposium on Urban Rainfall and Runoff and Sediment Control, University of Kentucky, Lexington, Kentucky, July. Resource Analysis, Inc. (1974) Rainfall Analysis and Generation Model, User's Manual: Resource Analysis, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts. Schaake, J. C , Ganslaw, M. J., Fothergill, J. W. and Harbaugh, T. E. (1972) Multivariate rainfall generator for annual, seasonal, monthly and daily events. International Symposium on Techniques in Water Resource Systems, Ottawa, Canada, May 9-12. Wood, Eric F., Harley, Brendan M. and Perkins, Frank E. (1972) Operational characteristics of a numerical solution for the simulation of open channel flow. Ralph M. Parsons Laboratory Technical Report 150, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

A mathematical model of flood waves moving along a cascade of reservoirs on a large river I. A. Zheleznyak, L. B. Byshovets
Abstract. The characteristics of flood waves moving along rivers and reservoirs are described. The main equations of the water movement are developed and they are applied in calculations of flood runoff transformation in the limits of a river section and a large reservoir. A mathematical model is given for a large cascade of reservoirs (the lower Dnieper is used as an example). The operational experiences of the water management organizations are described during periods of very high flow (the flood of 1970) and very low flow (1972). Modle mathmatique de dplacement des ondes de crues dans les retenues en cascade sur un fleuve Rsum. Particularits du processus de dplacement des ondes de crues dans les fleuves et les retenues. Equations principales de mouvement de l'eau et leur adaptation aux calculs de transformation de l'coulement de crues dans les limites d'un bief de fleuve ou d'une retenue. Conception d'un modle mathmatique de simulation des retenues en cascade (sur l'exemple du Bas-Dniepr). L'exprience de service d'exploitation des ouvrages hydrauliques lors de l'vacuation des crues extrmes, la plus haute (1970) et la plus basse (1972).

Large reservoirs have been created on the main rivers of the USSR. Because of the changing backwater in the reservoirs antTunsteady flow sharply manifesting itself downstream of hydroelectrical power plants, some of the gauging stations have been closed down. The old methods for predicting the daily flows appeared to be unsuitable and the newer ones provide forecasts only for the cross sections upstream from the flow control zone. Under these circumstances it becomes worthwhile to develop a mathematical model of water movement along the cascade of reservoirs and to use this model to evaluate flows (or stages) in an arbitrary cross section on the controlled river. The theoretical basis for the model of the propagation of flood waves along the cascade of reservoirs on the river Dnieper has been provided by Zheleznyak (1969) as an analysis of the causes of the flood wave subsidence together with the simplified computations of runoff in rivers and reservoirs. Carrying out full computations of water movement in large rivers and reservoirs is not advisable because of the lack of detailed information of hydraulic and morphological conditions as well as inevitable errors of computations stipulated by errors due to calculations of all the units of the water balance and above all due to evaluation of water storage in the reservoirs. The subsidence of the flood wave moving downstream in a river is caused by the change of volume of water in channel and flood plain within the reach under consideration (volume routing). The influence of the difference between the gradients (of discharges or depths) on the front and back parts of the wave (dynamic routing) may be neglected since in the flood wave propagation in rivers the complementary slope is very small compared to the main longitudinal slope of the river. When we deal with such a flow which is called a quasi-steady flow we can

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compute the flood wave propagation using a simplified (engineering) method. It consists of subsequent computation of the flow routing in comparatively small reaches. The length of the reaches is adjusted so as to make the travel time within a reach % equal or close to the duration of the computational time interval At. When satisfying this requirement the solution of the differential equations of the unsteady flow can be replaced by the solution of the continuity equation for the reach: Qn + Qk , Qtn + Qtk g + gft = Wk-Wn 2 2 2 At where Qn and Qk, q and qk, Qbn and Qbk represent respectively : the upstream discharges in cross section, discharges in the downstream cross section, and the lateral inflow ; W and Wk represent storage within the reach at the beginning and the end of the computational time interval At, evaluated from the curve showing the relationship between the storage within the reach in the channel and in the flood plain and the discharge W = f(Q0) (2)
(V

The ordinates of the storage-discharge curve for each reach are obtained from two curves; one showing the dependence of the geometrical capacity of the reach and the water level W=f(H), obtained from topographical data, and the stage-discharge curve for steady flow Q0=f{H) obtained from hydrometric data (Zheleznyak, 1969). The reliability of the simplified method of the solution of the given problem is confirmed by the comparison of the computed and the actual water discharges in rivers of different lengths (ranging from a stream to the Dnieper) as well as of different morphology of channels and flood plains (ranging from mountain rivers without flood plains in the Carpathian to the River Pripyat with its large and waterlogged flood plain (Zheleznyak, 1969; Zheleznyak and Shereshevskii, 1970; Zheleznyak et ai, 1971a, b). The flow routing in each reservoir of the cascade is also computed using the simplified method. Analysis of the dynamics of water masses in reservoir observations from nature and computations have shown that the water level fluctuations at the input cross section of the reservoir propagate towards the dam within days. It justifies considering each reservoir on the River Dnieper as an independent computational reach. But differently from the conditions of flow within the river reach the volumes of water in a reservoir depend not only on discharge but also on the water level in the dam cross section z: W=f(q,z) (3)

To construct these curves one uses the design data in the form of graphs of the relationship between the dynamic capacity of the reservoir and the water discharge for steady flow conditions and water levels at the dam site W=f{Q0,z). The reliability of the described method of computation of flow routing in a large reservoir was first examined on the Kiev reservoir (Zheleznyak and Shereshevskii, 1970). The comparison of the flows from the reservoir computed with the use of data describing inflow into this reservoir and observed levels with data on the actual spillovers measured during floods

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in 1965-1969 appeared to be fully satisfactory; on average 85 percent of all mean daily discharges have been computed with an error of less than 10 per cent. The same evaluation of the accuracy of the flood routing computation in the remaining reservoirs of the Dnieper cascade gives the same results: the difference between computed and observed discharges in cross sections of the all hydroelectrical power plants lies within limits of an error stipulated by errors of water level measurements (Zheleznyak et ai, 1971a, b). Mathematical modelling of the flood wave propagation along the reservoirs cascade on a large river consists of the calculation of the water balance for each time interval within separate river reaches and reservoirs in the form of the solution of the system of equations (1) and (2) or (1) and (3), respectively, starting from the known discharges in the input cross sections and the storage curves. The acceptability of the presented model of the process of the flood wave propagation along a cascade of reservoirs on a large river has been confirmed experimentally by computing the flood wave propogation on the River Dnieper along the distance of over 1 300 km. The inflow into the Kiev- reservoir contains the flood routing through 14 river reaches chosen on the main rivers of the Upper Dnieper basin from the input cross sections 1, 5, 7 and 15 (River Pripyat to Mozyr, River Sozh to Gomel, Dnieper to Rechitsa, River Desna to Chernigov to Kiev (see Fig. 1). The availability of the mathematical model enables us to compute a great number of alternate versions of routing along the cascade and forecasted hydrographs on the River Dnieper, leaving us with the choice as an optimal variant that one which most fully satisfies the requirements of irrigation, industrial and urban water supply, energy production water transport and other branches of the water resources system. During the routing of a very high spring flood in 1970 there have been

FIGURE 1. Hydrographie scheme of (a) the River Dnieper and (b) the scheme of computations of the flood water movement along the river reaches and reservoirs. 1 Kiev, 2 Kanev, 3 Kremenchug, 4 Dneprodzerzhin, 5 Dnieper (V.I. Lenin), 6 Kakhov.

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computed 16 variants of the flood wave propagation along the Dnieper reservoirs cascade. In that number there were the computations for the maximum probable values of the maximum discharges and volumes of the flood. There followed the variants of the propagation for the hydrographs for the maximum flows and volumes, varying 20 per cent in order to reflect the conditions of the water movement with regard to the external possible errors of the forecast. A correction of the forecast every 3-5 days up to the date of the occurrence of the maximum water discharges implied the change of the input data describing the inflow of the water and a new computation of the flood wave propagation. In addition, talcing into account infrequent return periods (once in 75-85 years), the objective of the computations was to pick up such conditions of the flow which provided a reduction of the maximum discharges in the Kiev cross section from 18-19 to 15-16 thousand m3/s with the following decrease in the basic compensating Kremenchug reservoir to 8.5-9 thousand m 3 /s. A successful solution of the problem helped water resources authorities to reduce the areas and correspondingly to prevent flood damage to bigger towns and industrial regions of the republic. In 1972 there occurred extremely low water flows. Modelling the movement of the flood wave along the cascade enabled, first of all, storages of water to be created in the largest reservoirs: Kremenchug and Kakhov. This in turn made possible the most efficient use of the limited water resources by all of the partners in the water resources system created on the River Dnieper. The performed computation of the wave movement through the Kiev reservoir, taking account of the prescribed operation of the reservoir, enables us to evaluate the spillway discharges. The sum of the discharges from the reservoir together with the flows of the River Desna at the mouth of the reservoir, which were found as a result of flow routing through five river reaches from Chernigov to the mouth, represent the flows at Kiev. From the daily flows at Kiev and on the main tributaries of the Lower Dnieper, knowing the optimal way for the given spring of flood routing along the cascade, we evaluate the daily water flows in the cross section of each hydroelectrical power plant including the discharges into the Black Sea. The control calculations for the period 1965-1972 have shown that the suggested model of the flood wave propagation along the cascade of reservoirs provides the necessary accuracy in determining the water flows (Zheleznyak et ai, 1971a, b). The computation of the discharges for the whole duration of the floods (20-120 days) requires no more than 10-15 min of computer time on the M-220. The program of the computation consists of the following units: computation of the inflow into the Kiev reservoir and the discharges from it ; calculation of the flow routing in the River Desna from Chernigov to the river mouth; evaluation of the inflow and outflow of water into and out from Kanev, Kremenchug, Dnieper (V.I. Lenin) and Kakhov reservoirs and subprograms for flow routing in a river and in a reservoir. The input data are the daily flows in the input cross sections and at the closing measuring sites on the main tributaries of the River Dnieper; water levels in the reservoirs or the volumes of the spillovers fixed in accordance with the prescribed operation of each of the power stations; the equations of the storage curves for the river reaches W=F(q) and for the reservoirs W=J[q, z).

A mathematical model of flood waves

REFERENCES

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Byshovets, L. B. and Margulis, R. I. (1972) Primenenie EVM dlya rascheta rasprostra-neniya woln polovodii po kaskadu gidrouzlov na Dnepre. Trudy UkrNIGMI 112, 51-56. Zheleznyak, I. A. (1965) Regulirovanie pavodochnogo stoka, p. 326: L., Gidrometeoizdat. Zheleznyak, I. A. and Shereshevskii, A.- I. (1970) Uproshchennyi raschet transformatsii polovod'ya v Kievskom vodokhranilishe. Trudy Ukr NIGMl 88, 148-162. Zheleznyak, I. A., Byshovets, L. B. and Shereshevskii, A. I. (1971a) Opyt rascheta drizheniya volny polovod'ya 1970 g. po kaskadu dneprovskikh vodokhranilish. Trudy UkrNIGMI 100, 23-30. Zheleznyak, I. A., Byshovets, L. B. and Tkachenko, I. L. (1971b) Metodika rascheta dvizheniya vesennego stoka po kaskady vodokhranilish na Dnepre. Trudy UkrNIGMI 100, 3-22.

Late papers Articles en retard

The following papers were not received in time to be included in this publication. These papers will be published later in the Hydrological Sciences Bulletin. Plot derived parameters for watershed computation George H. Comer and Heggie N. Holtan

Allowance for the stochastic character of hydrological data in water project decisions Jozsef Csuka Modle d'amnagement et de gestion d'un grand bassin hydrographique G. de Marsily, P. Hubert, L. Pachini et P. Romain Mathematical model for flood wave forecasting by means of warning basins Constantin Diaconu and V. A. Stanescu Finite difference and finite element simulation of fold water uptake by plants R. A. Feddes, P. Kowalik, S. P. Neuman and Eshel Bresler Methodology for the selection and application of probability models for the simulation of daily rainfall and runoff M. L. Kavvas and J. W. Delleur Design for surface water data networks for regional information Marshall E. Moss

A mathematical model of the ' reservoir' type designed for flood wave modelling and forecasting Petru Serban A bivariate regression model for estimating chemical composition of streamflow or groundwater Timothy Doak Steele An adaptive identification and prediction algorithm for the real-time forecasting of hydrological time systems A. Szellosi-Nagy Data analysis and system modelling in urban catchment areas Jan A. van der Berg

Snowmelt runoff model and the experience of its application to short-range forecasting of flood discharges A. P. Zhidikov, A. G. Levin, N. S. Nechaeva and E. G. Popov