Energy 101

Energy Technology and Policy

Dr. Michael E. Webber The University of Texas at Austin

Module 2: Energy Transitions Over Time

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For the Last Decade, Headlines Have Declared the End of Oil

October 2003

June 2004

August 2005

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Todays Headlines are Very Di erent

March 2013

May 2013

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Energy situations can change quickly.

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Energy transitions have happened before.

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Energy Transitions Have a Few Features

They are more typical than we might expect They take a long time They tend to follow a path towards higher-performing fuels They solve one problem while introducing another They tend to follow a path towards decarbonization

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The U.S. Fuel Mix Has Changed With Time

18002011 U.S. Energy Consumption by Source
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Review 2011 Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin

50 Annual Energy Consumption [Quads]

Michael E. Webber

Wood Dominant
40

Coal Dominant

Oil Dominant
Petroleum

30 Natural Gas 20 Coal

10

Renewables Nuclear

0 1800

1820

1840

1860

1880

1900 Year

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000 2011

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The Fuel Mix Has Diversied Over Time

18002011 U.S. Energy Consumption Share by Source
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Review 2011 Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin

100%

Renewables Coal

Fraction of Energy Mix

80%

60% Petroleum 40%

20%
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Natural Gas Nuclear 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 Year 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2011

0% 1800

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Renewable Energy Consumption Has Grown Signicantly in the Last Decade

19512011 U.S. Renewable Energy Consumption by Source
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Review 2011 Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin

4 Annual Energy Consumption [Quads]

Hydroelectric

Wood Biofuels Wind Other

0 1951

Michael E. Webber

1956

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981 Year

1986

1991

1996

2001

2006

2011

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The Use of Wood as a Fuel and Feedstock Caused Widespread Deforestation Between 16201920
Source: The Relation of Geography to Timber Supply, William B. Greeley, 1925 Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin

1620
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The Use of Wood as a Fuel and Feedstock Caused Widespread Deforestation Between 16201920
Source: The Relation of Geography to Timber Supply, William B. Greeley, 1925 Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin

820 Million Acres of Virgin Forest

138

1920
Each dot represents 25,000 acres.
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1620 Year

1920

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Whale Oil Supplies Peaked in the Mid-1800s

18041876 U.S. Whale Oil Imports from Whaling Ships
Source: Alexander Starbuck, History of the American Whale Fishery, 1878, pp. 660661 Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin

Annual Whale Oil Imports [Million Gallons]

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Peak Whale: 1845

4 10-year average 0 1804 1808 1812 1816 1820 1824 1828 1832 1836 1840 1844 1848 1852 1856 1860 1864 1868 1872 1876 Year
Michael E. Webber

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Energy Transitions Show a Trend Toward Decarbonization

18502000 U.S. Carbon Intensity of Energy
Source: A. Grbler and N. Nakicenovic, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, 1996, 53, 97110 Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin

Carbon Intensity of Energy Consumption [gC/BTU]

0.04

0.03 All Sources 0.02

0.032 Wood 0.027 Coal 0.021 Petroleum 0.016 Natural Gas

0.01

0 1850

Michael E. Webber

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

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2000

Year
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Carbon Dioxide Emissions Have Recently Decreased

19512011 U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions From Energy Consumption
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Review 2011 Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin

Recession
Annual Emissions of CO2 [Billion Metric Tons] 6

Fuel Switching and E ciency

0 1951

Michael E. Webber

1956

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981 Year

1986

1991

1996

2001

2006

2011

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The U.S. Energy Situation is Improving

After 40 years of declining production and increasing

imports, things are turning around
Domestic energy production is up: oil, gas, wind, solar, geothermal, bio Energy consumption and imports are down

The fuel mix is diversifying Vehicles and other end-use technologies are improving
performance and e ciency

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How we use energy has changed from antiquity to the Industrial Revolution.

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There Were Several Forms and Applications of Kinetic Energy in Antiquity

Medieval forms of kinetic energy

Dutch and Flemish windmills Medieval water wheels Sails Muscle power

Medieval uses of kinetic energy

Sawing wood Grinding grain Polishing glass Transportation
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Wiki Commons

There Were Several Forms and Applications of Thermal Energy in Antiquity

Medieval uses of
thermal energy
Cooking Making glass Boiling soap Making lime

Medieval forms of
thermal energy
Wood Charcoal Peat Dung Straw

Frau beim Brotbacken, 1854

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The Industrial Revolutions Main Enabler was a Breakthrough in Energy Conversion

Invention of steam

engine in 1700s enables conversion of thermal energy to kinetic energy allows thermal to electrical to kinetic energy

Electricity in 1800s

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U.S. Energy Consumption has Mostly Been a Story of Growth During the 20th Century
19512011 U.S. Energy Consumption by Source
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Review 2011 Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin

50 Annual Energy Consumption [Quads]

Michael E. Webber

40
The oil crises of the 1970s only temporarily changed behavior

Petroleum

30 Natural Gas 20 Coal Renewables Nuclear

10

0 1951

1956

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981 Year

1986

1991

1996

2001

2006

2011

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Fossil Fuels are the Dominant Primary Energy Source in Modern History
19512011 U.S. Energy Consumption by Source
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Review 2011 Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin

100 Annual Energy Consumption [Quads]

Michael E. Webber

80

Fossil Fuels

60

40

20 Renewables Nuclear 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 Year 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

0 1951

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The USA and World Use Similar Fuel Mixes

2011 USA and World Total Energy Consumption by Fuel
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012 Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin

40%

Michael E. Webber

2011 Energy Consumption

30%

U.S. [98 quads] World [531 quads]

20%

10%

0% Oil
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Natural Gas

Coal

Nuclear Energy

Hydroelectricity

Non-Hydro Renewables

The USA and World Both Rely Heavily on Fossil Fuels

2011 USA and World Total Energy Consumption by Fuel
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012 Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin

100% 86.4% 2011 Energy Consumption 75% 87.1%

Michael E. Webber

U.S. [98 quads] World [531 quads]

50%

25% 13.6% 0% Fossil Fuels Other Sources 12.9%

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Dependence on Fossil Fuels Is Diverging for the USA and World

20082011 U.S. and World Fossil Fuel Consumption as Fraction of Overall Fuel Mix
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012 Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin

88%
87.9%

Fossil Fuel Consumption

87.3% 87.2%

87.2% 87.1% 86.9%

87%

87.1%

Worldwide

86.4%

United States

86% 2008

Michael E. Webber

2009 Year

2010

2011

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Its tough to make predictions, especially about the future.

Yogi Berra

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Sources of U.S. Energy Supply are Expected to Change Very Little in the Coming 20 Years
19802035 U.S. Annual Energy Consumption by Source
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Review 2011 / Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin

50 Annual Energy Consumption [Quads] Historical 40 Projected Petroleum

30

Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Renewables

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10

0 1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005 Year

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

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Projections are Often Wrong

20062012 U.S. Annual Energy Consumption Projections
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Review 2011 and Annual Energy Outlook 20062012 Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin

Projected 2030 Annual Energy Consumption [Quads]

2006 2007 2008 133.9

140 Annual Energy Consumption [Quads]

105 Historical 70

2011 2012

104.3

35

0 1980
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Michael E. Webber

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005 Year

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2006 Year

2012

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Projections for U.S. Natural Gas Imports Dropped Signicantly Between 2006 and 2012
20032035 U.S. Natural Gas Forecast Net Imports
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2006, 2012 Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin

Annual Net Natural Gas Imports [Trillion Cubic Feet]

2006 Outlook

0 2012 Outlook -2 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Michael E. Webber

2013

2015

2017

2019 Year

2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035

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Energy is going through a transition globally.

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Several Global Trends are Driving the Energy System

Population growth Economic growth Urbanization Industrialization Electrication Motorization

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The Energy Transition will be Comprised of Three Shifts

A change in total

demand for energy

A change in our

end uses of energy

A change in our
Domestic sources Low-carbon sources Sustainable sources

sources of energy

Population growth pushes total demand up Economic growth pushes per capita demand up

All societies electrify over time All societies motorize over time

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Prediction 1: Energy will get cleaner, smaller, and smarter.

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Prediction 2: Natural gas will overtake petroleum as the dominant fuel source in the USA within 10 to 20 years.
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Natural Gas Might Overtake Petroleum in the USA

20052034 U.S. Oil & Gas Consumption
Historical Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Review 2011 Projections: Michael E. Webber (2013) Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin

50 Historical U.S. Oil & Gas Consumption [Quads] 40 Petroleum Projected

30

20

Natural Gas

Slow Transition 10

0 2005
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2010

2015

2020 Year

2025

2030

2034

34

Natural Gas Might Overtake Petroleum in the USA

20052034 U.S. Oil & Gas Consumption
Historical Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Review 2011 Projections: Michael E. Webber (2013) Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin

50 Historical U.S. Oil & Gas Consumption [Quads] 40 Petroleum Projected

30

20

Natural Gas

Fast Transition 10

Slow Transition

0 2005
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2010

2015

2020 Year

2025

2030

2034

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Natural Gas Might Overtake Petroleum in the USA

20052034 U.S. Oil & Gas Consumption
Historical Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Review 2011 Projections: Michael E. Webber (2013) Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin

50 Historical U.S. Oil & Gas Consumption [Quads] 40 Petroleum Projected

30

20

Natural Gas

No Transition in EIA Projection 10

0 2005
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2010

2015

2020 Year

2025

2030

2034

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Dr. Michael E. Webber

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