POL 51: The Scientific Study of Politics, Spring 2012

MW 8:00-9:50am, Olson 207 Instructor: Rick Bairett

Course Purpose and Goals

Would you rather interpret political outcomes yourself instead of having pundits tell you what to think? Do you want to understand how your professors and TAs think about political analysis so you can improve your grades in other classes? Are you thinking about graduate school? If you answered yes to any of the above or just want to appreciate the science of political science then this is the course for you! We will use a building-block approach initial concepts will enable you to apply more advanced conceptsto learn how to develop theories (ideas of how the world works), turn theories into testable statements (hypotheses), test hypotheses with data (and experiments), and determine how well these tests support political theories.

Instructor teaching philosophy:

I believe university students are intelligent and capable of grasping new concepts on their own. The purpose of formal courses, in my view, is to help students learn concepts faster and at a deeper level of understanding, and to help students become comfortable integrating and applying those concepts. Thus I view my role as a facilitator who helps form mental connections between what you already know and the concepts we will cover. I cannot pour knowledge into students heads any more than I can assemble an engine without parts, so coming to class preparedhaving read assigned material and completed assigned homework is vital for mastering concepts. While a secondary, but necessary, instructor role is evaluating your progress in the course, my main goal is to help you understand scientific analysis well enough to critically evaluate the work of others and the political outcomes in the world around you.

Your Expectations of Me
You can expect me to come prepared to teach and to be available outside of class during office hours or, if you have academic schedule conflicts with office hours, by appointment. If you have questions, please use office hours, work with your peers (consider SmartSite chat), try Google and Wikipedia, then email me. You can expect me to post lecture slides before class for use as note-takers, so you can spend more time heads-up and participating and less time heads-down and writing. You can expect me to set clear goals, often using group emails and SmartSite to post updates and instructions, and to do what I can to help you meet those goals. Office Hours: Kerr 579, Mon. 12:30-2:00pm, & Wed. 10:30am-Noon. Email: rbairett@ucdavis.edu

My Expectations of You
There is one guiding principle in this class: dont deny others any opportunity to learn. A few examples: - Ringing phones are distracting (please set to silent and take emergency calls outside the classroom). - Use your laptop to take notes rather than to email, chat, or play distracting games, videos, etc. Studies indicate that you are not as good at multi-tasking as you might think you are, and neither are those around you. - If you must leave (quietly) before the end of class, sit near the doors, and if you sleep in class, dont snore. - Noisily packing up with a few minutes left of class time is disrespectful to instructors and to other students. I expect you to attend each class prepared to participate. The course schedule lists when we will cover each part of the text, and I strongly recommend that you read that part before lecture and review it again afterward. This course is not inherently difficult; however, you are paying for university-level instruction and will get your moneys worth. Several unique concepts will be investigated, and repeated contact will help cement them in your brain. I expect you to read my SmartSite and email guidance, integrate it into your course planning and expectations, and to ask for clarification as needed. You are responsible for the information. I expect you to complete assignments on time and to take scheduled exams and quizzes at the scheduled date and time. If, due to circumstances beyond your control, you cannot do this, I expect you to contact me as soon as possiblein advance with extremely rare exceptionsto make other arrangements. I expect that you will struggle with the material, but not give up. Not catching on immediately is normal! I expect you to let me know if I can change how I do things in order to help you better grasp concepts.

Materials
Required Text: Kellstedt, Paul M., and Guy D. Whitten. 2009. The Fundamentals of Political Science Research. K&W provide a straightforward introduction to political analysis, often with step-by-step examples. Optional Text: Gonick, Larry and Woollcott Smith. 1993. The Cartoon Guide to Statistics. G&W provide a summarized approach to many useful statistical concepts. Required Statistical Software: Small Stata 12. Order via http://www.stata.com/order/schoollist.html#california For student pricing, enter the link in your browser, click University of California, and order Small Stata 12. You only need the 6-month license for this course (currently $32), and do not need printed documentation or other Stata products. (Lets talk before you order if you plan to work with large datasets or use Stata beyond this class.) Note: 93 Hutchison and 2101 SCC are both listed by IT as having Stata 12 installed on their computers. If you pursue this option, check availability (http://clm.ucdavis.edu/rooms/class-sw.html) in advance and do not wait until the last minute to complete your homework. Supplemental readings, datasets, or instructions for specific topics/assignments will be uploaded to SmartSite.

Grading Basis
Getting to Know You3% Homework (top 6 of 8 @ 5%)30% Experiment participation2% Discussion section quizzes/participation15% Midterm Exam20% Final Exam30%

Getting to Know You

The purpose of this introductory exercise is twofold. First, Id like to get to know you better because my students are important to me, and so I can scope the course correctly and provide personalized guidance where necessary. Second, the assignment will familiarize you with following detailed instructions posted on SmartSite Assignments.

Homework
The good news is that there is no paper required for this course. The flip side is weekly homework assignments that will help you to master new concepts. The top six of eight grades will count as the six worth 5% of your grade each. The remaining two will count as extra credit, worth up to 2% each. Homework will be announced in class or via email, with instructions and due dates posted in SmartSite Assignments. All assignments must be uploaded to SmartSite in .pdf format by 2:00pm on the due date, and should have 1-inch margins and enough space between responses for me to leave comments. Graphs and tables should be of professional quality with appropriate labels (unless I specify a lower standard). Please note that I will not grade assignments that are not in .pdf format. You will not be able to submit homework after the assignment closeout time in SmartSite. Missing assignments (up to two) count as those that could have received extra credit. While I encourage working together on homework, the actual write-up that you turn in must be your own work in your own words. Nearly identical responses will be considered academic dishonesty and handled as such.

Experiment Participation
You will have the opportunity to participate in a real scientific experiment. It should be interesting and perhaps fun. If you do not want to participate, you can complete an alternate activity for credit. To do so, just sign up as if you are going to participate and advise that you would like to complete the alternate activity when you check in. The alternate assignment will take about the same amount of time as participating and I will not know which you chose.

Discussion Sections
Discussion sectionsthe last part of classwill reinforce concepts and introduce Stata statistical software. Expect short 1-2 question quizzes graded + (beginning to master100%), (some understanding of the material85%), or (not there yet75%). So just showing up and taking the quizzes guarantees you will receive most of the discussion section credit. Active participation will help ensure you receive the full 15 percentage points.

Midterm Exam Wed., May 2nd, 8:00-9:50am. Bring a blue book; no electronics including calculators. Final Exam Sat., June 9th, 1:00-3:00pm. Bring a blue book; no electronics including calculators.
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Additional Information
POL 51 Catalog Course Description: Introduction to the basic principles of the scientific study of politics. Research design and empirical analysis of data with applications to different methodological approaches and different substantive areas in political science. (4 credits; required for Intl. Relations and Political Science) More on course objectives. My overall objective is that each of you leaves this course being able to critically assess arguments about cause and effect of political outcomes. This includes being able to interpret regression tables in political science journal articles, and to critique the conclusions of those articles based on how well they meet the criteria for scientific causation. Finally, I hope to start you down the path to analyzing your own theories about political outcomes, and to provide you with tools to conduct preliminary quantitative research. Prior preparation. There is no requirement for advanced mathematics, statistical training or computer programming for this class. We will use basic algebra and proven computer software for analyzing data. I will normally provide sample code so your time is spent on drawing inferences from the data, not on programming. Re-grade Policy. Clerical errors: If I dont add your score correctly, please bring it to my attention at any time. Substantive disagreements: If you believe I did not completely or correctly understand a response and did not give due creditbring it to my attention within one week of receiving the assignment/quiz/exam for reconsideration.

Course Schedule Monday, Apr 2 Wednesday, Apr 4 Monday, Apr 9 Wednesday, Apr 11 Monday, Apr 16 Wednesday, Apr 18 Monday, Apr 23 Wednesday, Apr 25 Monday, Apr 30 Wednesday, May 2 Monday, May 7 Wednesday, May 9 Monday, May 14 Monday, May 21 Monday, May 28 Monday, June 4 Wednesday, June 6 Saturday, June 9
Introduction to the Scientific Study of Politics; K&W Chapter 1 Theory Building; K&W Chapter 2 Formal Theory / Spatial Models; game theory paper (Clinton 1994; Smartsite Resources) Evaluating Causal Relationships; K&W Chapter 3 Research Design; K&W Chapter 4 Turning Political Concepts Into Measures; K&W Chapter 5 Descriptive Statistics and Graphs; K&W Chapter 6, (G&S Chapter 2) Statistical Inference; K&W Chapter 7 Bivariate Hypothesis Testing (part 1); K&W Chapter 8 Midterm Exam, in-class. Bring a Blue Book; no calculators/electronics. Bivariate Hypothesis Testing (part 2); K&W Chapter 8 Bivariate Regression Models (part 1); K&W Chapter 9 Bivariate Regression Models (part 2); K&W Chapter 9

Wednesday, May 16 Bivariate Regression Models (part 3); K&W Chapter 9

Multiple Regression Models (part 1); K&W Chapter 10

Wednesday, May 23 Multiple Regression Models (part 2); K&W Chapter 10

NO CLASSMemorial Day break

Wednesday, May 30 More on Omitted Variable Bias

Multiple Regression Model Extensions; K&W Chapter 11 Review Final examination, 1:00-3:00pm. Bring a Blue Book; no calculators/electronics. 3