demographics new diasporas

In a time of Beyond Geography:

A Virtual Uprootedness
to states in negotiating rights—whether
local or global, economic or geographic.
rapid migration, Following in the footsteps of anthro-
They may even define themselves as
outside these traditional legal systems.
diasporas are pologist Arjun Appadurai, we already
know to look at emerging diasporas not
maps of the so much in terms of their geo-cultural
Such distortions of size and influence
are likely to grow in the future as diaspo-
flows of wealth, origins but in terms of their various over-
lapping “scapes” of experience: medi-
ras emerge from new global phenomena.
For example, global climate change
goods, and ascapes, technoscapes, and workscapes
for example. These scapes give rise to
will create a host of new diasporas:
meaning. the multi-layered identities that define
disasters like hurricane Katrina or more
permanent flooding (as forecast for
Over the next decade, today’s diasporas—and make it impos-
Bangladesh) will spur forced migrations
new kinds of migration— sible to talk simply about the Indian
of local populations who see themselves
diaspora or the North African diaspora,
across physical and as victims of global, not local disasters.
for example.
digital borders alike— Local food shortages will be seen as a
will create new kinds collapse of a global food web, turning lo-
At the same time, we see that even
of diasporas. These cal famine-driven migrations into global
these scapes are built on the shifting
political phenomena.
dispersed populations sands of virtual platforms, from the mas-
with shared roots will sively multiplayer games that Chinese
youth may inhabit as they travel to work Beyond Citizenship:
perhaps be the real
hundreds of miles from home to the Identity as Commodity
emerging economies of
online self-help groups that provide These new diasporas are, in effect, the
the 21st century. And
“citizenship” services to diverse ethnic new political economies of 21st century.
at the core of these migrant workers from Latin America. But unlike citizens of nation-states, the
new economies will be As these platforms evolve, diasporas new diasporas won’t share a stable
a commodity that will migrate across them. So today’s diaspo- geo-cultural identity. Rather they will
be measured, managed, ras are as likely to be uprooted from craft their identities, day to day, from
and traded as vigorously their virtual home spaces as from their a combination of shifting physical and
as any raw material, any geographical landscapes. virtual environments. This instability will
manufactured good or be the source of both wealth creation
essential service. That Beyond Numbers: and social disruption.
Local Minorities,
commodity is identity, Identity will become a commodity that
Global Majorities
and platforms for identi- can be constructed and deconstructed,
ty creation and manage- In addition, new media have given
and moved from one context to an-
ment will be the engines diasporas a global voice that is perhaps
other as needed. Identity creation and
out of proportion to their local numbers.
that power these new management will become both the basic
As Appadurai points out, even though
emerging economies. daily activity of individual members of
their numbers may be small in any given
the diaspora and the critical economic
region, members of new diasporas feel
enterprise that binds diasporas together
themselves increasingly to be part of a
as a whole. The tools and platforms for
global majority. This new global identity
this enterprise will be the infrastructure
empowers them to act on the global
that drives economic growth.
stage, to define themselves as equal
i nst i tute for the f utu re
Ten-Year Forecast
Perspectives 2008
SR-1140
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 DEMOGRAPHICS
• Refugee tracking
SUPERHERO ORGANIZATIONS • Global rights for local refugees
BILITY • Solastalgia
PHYSICAL MO
T WORKING
SMART NE
ASIAN YOUTH
Superhero
organizations:
open INTERNAL
• Philawarepragacago leadership
DIASPORAS
• Nowhere man CORPORATE New Commons: Rural to urban migrations
BIOCOMMONS
• Proiferating business DIASPORAS in large Asian countries
network platforms redefine geographic
Corporations serve and social identities
as destinations among
which groups of initiated
workers circulate

IES BIOMETRIC
TIT
DE
N DIASPORAS
TI
IS
TA
N
EN
ES
S
KS
The ability to track, CLIMATE
RS R OR imagine, and express
• Open ID platforms P E
AW
A
NE
T W
biological markers catalyze CHANGE
LE T
IP EX S OR new identities DIASPORAS
• Pan-ethnic migrant UL
T
N T
SE
N and communities
suport services New Commons: M CO & Climate change displaces
R S
IDENTITY O communities and
• Virtual world workers Commons NS
Source: New York Times, 2005
creates identities linked
S E
• Persistent avatars to the causes and impacts
of global warming
• DNA customs & flight check-in

ETIC PR OFILING
• Medical ID implants
VIRTUAL • DNA-based ancestry tracking • NGO networks

ES
I
• Remote campaigns IT
DIASPORAS • Health care map mashups A R C at
t
• Hurricane Katrina diaspora
• DNA asylum S C ABI • Bangladesh diaspora
Persistent online CE F H

GEN
R
identities migrate from U O • Tuvalu Pact
SO S
platform to platform, R E L OS
leveraging personal histories • North-to-South migrations
and relationships

ACTIVIST
DIASPORAS PERVASIVE
ecomonitoring:
MEDIA Technological support BOTTOM-UP
for bottom-up, transborder
DIASPORAS civil engagement creates
ECO-REGULATION

Media “taste trails” new platforms for

become identity markers DIY MEDIA
identity and community—
that define persistent especially in the
communities developing world
• Taste trails
• Social taste networks OPEN-SOURCE
WARFARE:
meme
warfare solastalgia: distress caused by transformation of one’s home geography
economics ISLAMIC INFLUENCE

In a world ISLAMIC FINANCE:

DIFFUSION OF INNOVATION
instruments as an alternative way to
manage risk.
of capital Aspects of Islamic law limit the ability of
In reality, many of the innovations in
instability, devout Muslims to engage with con-
ventional banks and banking practices.
Islamic finance may simply be “shell
Islamic finance Prohibitions on interest restrict their use
of everything from mortgages to credit
games,” as some people have called the
efforts to repackage existing products
is emerging cards, while broader restraints limit the
to make them look as though they
conform. The near-term performance
as a key zone amount of debt they can assume.
of the Islamic stock exchange and sukuk
of global As oil money has flooded the Islamic
bonds will be measures of the capacity
of Islamic finance to provide alternatives
world and as globally mobile Muslims
innovation. have sought to establish lives in non-
that are truly less risky.
At the heart of this Muslim countries, Islamic legal scholars
have begun working with financial experts BEYOND BANKING:
innovation is the reform A NEW ETHICS OF DEVELOPMENT
of Islamic and banks to develop new instruments
that are shariah-compliant—that is, that The influence of Islamic finance may well
finance. In a world
conform to the strictures of Islamic law. spread beyond the worlds of banking
coping with the after- and insurance:
effects of risky banking At the same time, Western banks are
practices and develop- opening so-called Islamic banking win- • T
 he role of Islamic businesswomen
ment strategies that, dows that recognize the requirements may grow as more of these women
in many cases, have of Islamic law. These windows are a way take higher positions in new business
burdened nations with to service the growing Islamic diaspora— domains and as Islamic scholars chal-
recipients of growing oil wealth—as well lenge the dominant norms, interpreted
inescapable debt,
as enter predominantly Muslim markets. from the Quran, the Hadith, and Islamic
Islamic finance offers history, regarding the role of women in
The combination of innovation within the
alternatives for manag- Islamic banking sector and the assertion general—and specifically in finance.
ing risk and debt. In of Islamic identities in both the West and
this world, new Islamic the broader Islamic world is leading to the • A
 broader strategy of addressing
financial products are growth of new urban hot spots of Islamic issues of financial ethics may emerge
providing a way for Mus- finance, from London to Kuala Lumpur. as diverse groups—both secular and
religious—grapple with what might be
lims to engage with the
ISLAMIC PROHIBITIONS: described as a “new moral order.”
global financial sector—
they are also emerging BUFFER AGAINST RISK?
• E
 xperimentation with alternative
as both an alternative The world of banking has been destabi- models of economic development may
model of capitalism and lized by several decades of increasingly avoid some of the shortcomings of
a central requirement risky investment practices, culminating current development practices as they
in the current subprime mortgage crisis. create new property arrangements, cus-
for global capitalism.
In the face of this risk, many are asking tomary law, and financial institutions by
whether Islamic financial instruments drawing upon the resources of religion.
provide a buffer against risk, since they
theoretically limit the burden of debt to This interaction between Islamic
one-third of a company’s liabilities and women’s roles, alternative financial eth-
i nst i tute for the f utu re
Ten-Year Forecast prohibit “making money from money”— ics, and Islamic financial innovation may
Perspectives 2008 that is, interest. Investors, insurers, and be the source of significant economic
SR-1140 borrowers alike are looking to these surprises over the next decade.
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economics ISLAMIC INFLUENCE
• International certification programs in
Islamic finance New Diasporas:
• Leading UK programs: DEMAND S e a r c h fo
r Alternative Moral
Order NEW WAYS TO Activist
Diasporas
- Institute for Islamic Banking and Finance FOR ISLAMIC • Swiss Re & Munich Re: MANAGE RISK
- International Institute of Islamic Banking
and Finance FINANCIAL Takaful and micro-takaful Islamic prohibition of risk
and debt drive innovation
• New U.S. programs in Islamic finance: KNOW-HOW • Shariah-compliant in low-risk practices and
Gr o investment funds
- Harvard, Tufts The lack of Islamic wt products
ho
financial experts drives Ass f I • Islamic banking confederations
s l
Islamic finance education er tio a mi
worldwide no c
fI Di
sl as
rm am
fo ic

po
e Id

ey
hy en

ra
R

on
rc ti
ic

mics
NEW
am

il M

ing
a

ty
ly

• New kinds of
Isl

Econo
DEVELOPMENT
Po

ic O

ank
credit cards
ETHICS

Isl am

nB
• Convertible Sukuk

list
ni
Islamic finance provides
NEW LEGAL • Shariah–compliant

tio
an alternative ethical

ita
AND RELIGIOUS mortgages

va
framework for economic

ap
no
DEBATES development

eC
In

iv
ky

at
Differing interpretations of s
Ri

rn
Islamic law drive innovation te
Al
in financial poducts NEW fo
r
FINANCIAL ar
ch
Se
PRODUCTS
• Islamic scholars challenge Islamic financial products
gender norms diffuse worldwide—among • Islamic micro-credit
Muslims and non-Muslims
• Zero-interest banking
• Islamic infrastructure
NEW BANKING investment in developing
METROPOLISES countries
Islamic banks define ey
Mon
new financial centers c Oil e ts
worldwide Isl ami Mark
m e r ging
• India: highest percent of Sharia- Gr ow th
o f E
compliant stocks & companies
• Malaysia: 70% of sukuk issued globaly • Kuala Lumpur • Singapore
• Mumbai • Dubai
sukuk: Islam-compliant bonds
• London • Riyadh
takaful: Islam-compliant insurance • New York • Istanbul
POLITICS OPEN-SOURCE WARFARE
FOURTH-GENERATION WAR: forcing costly stalemates, relying on tac-
Over the OPEN INNOVATION AND
SUPER-EMPOWERMENT
tics such as provocative meme warfare
and the disruption of the core physical
next decade, The past decades have seen the rise of
and moral infrastructure supporting
modern society.
new model what analysts now recognize as “Fourth-
Generation warfare” (following line-and-
armies will use column state warfare, firepower/attrition
Most often, traditional institutions facing
an open-source conflict respond with
network-based warfare, and maneuver warfare). Fourth-
Generation warfare (4GW) builds on
measures that end up either weakening
their own ability to withstand attacks or
strategies to the increasing strength of collaborative
networks, the globalization of culture,
actually strengthening the opposing in-
disrupt social, and the widespread availability of digital
surgency. Such responses are akin to an
autoimmune disorder, a system failure in
economic, technologies. The result is heavily net-
worked, decentralized, highly adaptive
which defensive efforts actually damage
the body’s health. These responses may
and political military actors, often without loyalty to a
particular state and particularly trouble-
even trigger a feedback condition, where
systems and some to traditional state militaries.
the self-inflicted damage leads to further
autoimmune reactions.
wage meme Think guerilla warfare 2.0.
EFFECTIVE STRATEGIES:
warfare. In this model of decentralized power
and ubiquitous communication the PLATFORMS FOR RESILIENCE
The responses are
individuals can rapidly gather resources, Traditional institutions can, however,
likely to fall into
coordinate with other small units, modify take advantage of the same drivers that
two camps: Many or improvise strategies, and take action enable the new insurgencies. And in fact,
systems and states without lengthy consultation of military many argue that resilience—supported
will experience leaders. Tactics and techniques spread by flexible, transparent social and
autoimmune responses, virally and are rapidly prototyped in a technological networks—can minimize
in which repeated manner similar to open source innova- the threat from open-source warfare by
efforts at restoration tion. Such actions are extremely difficult absorbing attacks rather than resist-
cripple the systems to anticipate and prepare for—almost ing them. Resilience focuses on system
every response is immediately obsolete. responsiveness and the management of
they seek to protect.
This is superempowerment—the ability of consequences.
More successful, relatively small groups to inflict damage
platforms for resilience disproportionate to their size. Ultimately, this story is not just about
will focus on system warfare. It will play out over the next
innovations that enable CONSEQUENCES: decade across a variety of institutions
flexibility and a capacity SYSTEMIC FAILURE and industries. The ongoing friction
to absorb disruption. between conventional models and emer-
This isn’t a crude argument that such
gent, networked phenomena reveals a
forces are “stronger” than conventional
deeper strategy: in a complex, disruptive
militaries. In a stand-up fight against a
environment, stability is more likely to
modern army, the guerillas will likely
arise from flexibility than from rigidity.
lose. However, in an insurgency, where
In an environment without significant
stand-up fights can be avoided, the mod-
disruptive pressure, it’s easy to conflate
ern army may find winning nearly impos-
i nst i tute for the f utu re stability and stasis—but under pressure
sible. But even talking about winning
Ten-Year Forecast of new model armies, stability and stasis
Perspectives 2008 and losing in this context is simplistic.
may be antithetical.
SR-1140 Networked insurgencies are best at
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POLITICS OPEN-SOURCE WARFARE • Hollow communities
• Feral cities AUTO-IMMUNE
• Private armed forces
• Genocide SOCIETY
• Collaspse of freedoms The encounter between
• New defense industries hierarchical institutions and
• Environmental collapse
• Semi-autonomous networks results in “allergic”
robot armies responses that undermine
social and economic
• Super-empowered functions
individuals New Diasporas:
NEW MODEL Activist
o ca
tion
Diasporas disl
ARMIES Cult
ural ony
gem
A new set of military
e o f he
in
actors—private and without D ec l ess
ion
state support—will i e d exp
if
pursue diverse goals MEME Ampl
ity
and ideologies bil
WARFARE ns
t a
ei
Meme warfare escalates u rc
the disruption of the “soft so
Re
ENABLED!
infrastructure” in a battle
New Modes of for hearts and minds Superhero
Sensing organizations:
New Commons:
Infrastructure Beta
Commons Systems

• Culture jamming
NETWORK • Hactivism • Open-source intelligence Superhero
STRATEGIES • Subvertising • Open-source civil planning
organizations:
Open
Networking tools and Leadership
platforms provide the • Open-source simulations
same “amplification” and models
effects for small groups • Social cities
of warriors as for other
small groups • Resilience-based insurance
• Metaverse “training” SYSTEM
• Swarm war DISRUPTION
System disruptions
• Impoverished explosive proliferate as new model
devices (IEDs) armies create gaps in the
PLATFORMS
Ubiquit
• Army of one infrastructure for power o u s co m p
uting FOR RESILIENCE
grabbing and profit T ec h n Open platforms and
o lo g i e s
o f co o p e r
ation cooperative systems shift
New Diasporas: the focus of strategy from
Light w
Virtual eight inf achieving stability to
r a st r u c t u r
Diasporas es
building capacity
• Secessionist movements to respond
• Energy infrastructure attacks
• Climate change as a weapon ENABLED!
• Information network disruptions New Strategies
for Development
environment the blue economy
OCEANIC COLLAPSE: vehicles, sophisticated models, and dis-
ACTIONS AND CONSEQUENCES tributed sensor arrays. Such tools may
The future We’ve long known that oceans are frag-
even allow the intentional manipulation
of ocean systems as a means of combat-
of the oceans ile, but the last few years have brought a
harsher knowledge: the ocean environ-
ing climate change.
will take ment is already close to catastrophic col-
OCEANIC ENGINEERING:
shape at the lapse. Overuse, pollution, and large-scale
changes to ocean chemistry and temper- CLIMATE AS CATALYST

boundary ature threaten the survival of many spe-

cies and put at risk many ecosystem ser-
Such manipulation is known as geo-
engineering, and among its proponents
between two vices that humans have come to depend are those who would solve climate
catalysts: on. The drivers are manifold: population
growth and unsustainable development;
change with costly and controversial
plans, such as fertilizing the ocean with
the ongoing impacts of international competition and instability; iron particles to encourage algal growth
human activities and and above all, global warming. and thereby remove carbon dioxide
our growing ability to from the atmosphere.
manage environmental The littoral “interface” zone—the coast-
systems. Even as some line—is home to some of the greatest At the same time, the oceans may
stresses. Nitrogen runoff from overuse provide some of the most abundant
celebrate a possible
of fertilizer in agriculture has sterilized and reliable sources of renewable
new golden age of large stretches of coastal waters. Oil non-carbon energy. Ocean power
oceanography, others spills remain a recurring problem. And technologies, including both “hydro-
see the oceans as a the destruction of coastal mangroves kinetic” and thermal conversion systems,
battleground for new and wetlands is eliminating a critical could easily meet current and projected
international disputes layer of protection from hurricane and energy demands—and suffer from fewer
over efforts to alter tsunami impacts. intermittency and location problems
than wind and solar systems.
the oceanic environ-
A more direct threat to human society
ment. At the heart of
comes from the rapid decline of fish The massive scale and complexity of
these disputes may be populations. Already, key species such oceanic geo-engineering enterprises
the rise of a new blue as blue fin tuna, swordfish, and salmon raise many questions. They are, by
economy: even as a face near-total collapse. The causes? Ever definition, uncontrollable experiments.
catastrophic collapse of more efficient fishing technologies as well Yet the accelerating pace of climate
ocean systems looms, as changes in ocean chemistry. disruption may make such proposals
we see in the oceans irresistible, while the demands for food
new potential for abun- OCEAN MANAGEMENT: and energy of a growing population will
TRANSPARENT WATERS almost certainly focus speculation on
dant renewable energy. this new blue economy.
At the same time, new tools could en-
able humans to make far more careful
It’s clear that oceans present humans
use of ocean resources. In fact, some
with engineering options on an unprec-
consider this a new “golden age of
edented scale. It’s also clear that the
oceanography,” arising from a rapidly im-
future of the oceans is the future of the
proving understanding of ocean biology
planet—and ultimately, of human civiliza-
and physics. This new oceanography has
i nst i tute for the f utu re tion itself.
Ten-Year Forecast been driven by cutting-edge technolo-
Perspectives 2008 gies such as underwater autonomous
SR-1140
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 environment the blue economy • Hydrokinetic energy
• Ocean thermal energy
conversion
ange • Much deeper oil drilling
te Ch
C lima
ba l
G lo
wavehub.co.uk

ing
o del THE NEW
&M
Food Webs:
Blue Economy: ns
in
g
fO
il SEA POWER
Bottom-Up
Se In the face of fossil fuel Disputes over:
Info-Rich eo
• Extinction of major fish species Regulation
Pr
ic e nt woes, the ocean promises
• Oil access
Environments gem
• “Fish print” impact model a na significant renewable
M • Polution disaters
o- nse energy options
• Internet markets for ID’d & certified fish Ec espo
f i sR • North pole
o
• NGO-certified sustainable fisheries e C ris
• Fisheries

s
p

Ri
-U
• “Retro” fishing methods Se a L
ev e l R i s e m

o
• Bio-tailored local policies

tt
GOLDEN

Bo
Fo o d W e b
se of Superheroes:
l l ap AGE OF Collective
END Co
OCEANOGRAPHY Sensemaking THE
OF • EOS satellite data BLUE
High-resolution data
FISHING • Low-cost sensor-based data drives real-time 3-D COMMONS
Climate change and • Improved global models ocean modeling The ocean, like the
overfishing threaten • Amateur scientists & NGOs atmosphere, is recast as a
viability of global global ecosystem service—
fisheries • Mapping of new ocean species with commons-based
Food Webs:
projectcross.com Technofix solutions
U n s u lo
D ev
st p
e
ai
Pop

ab Signs of failure: • Ocean science

n

m
en le
• Acidification information commons
ul a

t
BATTLE
• Reduced carbon uptake
tio

THE AGAINST
• Methane clathrates
n

Source: Woods Hole

GLOBAL WARMING
Gr

LITTORAL Oceanographic Institiution

ow

As the ocean’s capacity

CONVERGENCE
th

ur e to counter climate
Urbanization, S e a L ev e l A r c h i t ec t change declines, extreme
industrialization, and NGE geoengineering measures
CHA
climate chane converges GLOBAL CLIMATE enter the debate
at the littoral zone —
Food Webs:
• Measurement of coastal the tidal area where
Extreme
ecosystems services ocean meets land Planning
• Human coastal migration Initiatives:
• Eco-management for disasters • Ocean fertilization
• New materials for littoral zones • Sea water pumps
• Thermal pumps oceanatlas.org
• Ocean-to-atmosphere pumps
SUSTAINABILITY FOOD WEBS

Global climate CULTIVATED OR WILD:

“IT’S ALL GARDENING NOW”
Many of these innovations are values-
driven. They emerge from shared per-
change, While environmental scientists record
spectives of the relationship between
environment, health care, and our diets.
unsustainable the rapid extinction of species, the food
industry enjoys a sense of immunity to
Drawing on rich information and com-
development, what’s happening in the wild. Yet the
munication networks, they cast a wide
net—building alternative infrastructures
and industrial boundary between wild and cultivated is
breaking down, as feedback from indus-
for food production and distribution
waste are all trial agriculture—for example, the carbon
while attending to both global and local
impacts. While locally focused, they are
disrupting local production of the meat industry—feeds
the cycles of climate change that disrupt
not isolationist. Rather they are building
a more layered, flexible, and responsive
food webs— the timing of predator-prey cycles.
system for human food production.
and threatening Mainstream environmental science still
LONG-TERM STRATEGY:
the global web. embraces a strong “hands-off” ethic when
it comes to wilderness food webs. Yet an ECOLOGICAL INTERVENTIONS
Predator-prey cycles are “interventionist” perspective is gaining In the long term, the threats to the
being decoupled as in- adherents. Noting that human influence global food web will most likely require
sects emerge out-of-sync is now ubiquitous, ecologists like Daniel a coordinated international response,
with bird migrations. In Janzen argue that we need to become drawing on the science of ecosystem
“gardeners” of wild ecologies. And this management. This response is likely
the United Kingdom, to engage many of today’s top-down
gardening is likely to look very different
mothers’ milk is contami- from today’s agro-industrial practices. institutions: governments, transnational
nated with 40 times the organizations, corporations, universities,
acceptable amounts of SHORT-TERM RESPONSES: and NGOs, who will all shoulder re-
industrial chemicals. The BOTTOM-UP INNOVATION sponsibility for protection of the various
colony collapse disorder fragile systems—whether for reasons of
Meanwhile, worries about food webs are altruism, power, or profit.
of bees foreshadows driving innovation in human food man-
the long-term effects agement at a distinctly local level, using
The food-web ecosystem crosses in-
of, among other things, bottom-up processes. In Japan, 20% of
dustry silos and geopolitical boundaries,
introducing non-native, the population belongs to food coopera-
and management strategies will demand
highly competitive spe- tives. They form short and flexible local
collaboration, adaptation, and flexibility.
cies into the landscape. supply chains and demand ecologically
It will need to integrate not only emerg-
friendly production methods; they reject
Over the next century, ing bottom-up food infrastructures
packaging as advertising; and they
these cascading disrup- but also various bio-tinkering efforts—
foster community connections between
tions will restructure the bio-engineered agriculture, genetically
and within producers and consumers. In
modified animals, even developments
human food landscape— China, experimental bottom-up coop-
in lab-grown meat. Meanwhile, many
but the next 10 years will eratives are testing domestic fair trade
international bodies will explore meth-
lay the groundwork. practices that provide an alternative to
ods of “biosphere backup,” preparing
national and international organic certi-
for catastrophes ranging from food-web
fications, which have very low credibility
collapse to massive species extinction.
there. In the United States, artists and
These all form a dynamic ecosystem of
activists are claiming farming as a cre-
i nst i tute for the f utu re strategies for addressing the challenges
ative act, cultivating urban food systems,
Ten-Year Forecast posed by an unsustainable food web and
Perspectives 2008 and fostering a new appreciation for
threats of disruption.
SR-1140 farming and food production.
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 SUSTAINABILITY FOOD WEBS
o l l a ps e
web c
gf ood
din
Ca
s ca ing TECHNOFIX
Engineer www.seedvault.no
enetic Biotechnology comes to the
logy/G
hno rescue to offer a range of
tec ience
PERVASIVE Bio cos c sustainable—but sometimes
t h of E
ecomonitoring: ow controversial—solutions
Bottom-Up Gr els
d Mod
Eco-regulation o r s an
ECOSYSTEM Sen
s

MANAGEMENT EXTREME
The complexity & scale of • Post-Bovine animal engineering PLANNING

Li
A number of governments
food issues drives ecosytem- • NERICA rice

Pa
gh
• Bio-regional planning and institutions begin

r
t-W
based management to

ti
and regulation • Inkjet-cultured meat planning for the worst—

ci
the fore

ei

pa
gh
• Revised insurance rules for • Self-protecting plants anticipating catastrophe

to
tM

ry
development

an

So
• Food web modeling tools

uf

me
• Seed vaults

ac
• Watershed management

thi
tur
• Frozen zoos

ng
ing
• Disaster recovery
DESIGNS in-a-box
OPEN-SOURCE
FOR ENABLED! WARFARE:
System
SUSTAINABILITY New
Development Disruption
New standards and Strategies
practices drive innovation
in agriculture, retail, and SMART
consumption—especially LOCALISM
• Re-wilding involvement in urban contexts
www.notacornfield.com Smart networking practices,
• Food footprinting food tracking technologies,
• LEEDS standards Fa
i lu and concerns about eco-
• Green retail re impacts of food drive a
of
In

eg ur flexible localism
t

• Domestic fair trade ra

te
Gr
ee
ba
np
• Buffalo commons d
In
nH
ea
l an
ning COOPERATIVE • Local diets
fr lth
• Native farming as
tr INNOVATION • Food transparency
uc
tur
e Re A DIY ethic plus • Organic patriotism
sp o collaborative technologies
nsibi • Agritourism
Blue Economy: lit y
support evolution of food
End of Fishing • Water rights issues
value chains—over food
supply chains • Vertical farming
Superheroes: • Food production and distribution coops
Beta Systems New Diasporas:
• Food value chains Activist
• Community supported agriculture Diasporas

• Networked “victory gardens”

INNOVATION ENABLED!
In a world INNOVATION PUSH: curb cuts designed to make sidewalks
where people ENABLED COLLABORATION
Over the past decade, advances in mate-
wheelchair-accessible.

with disabilities rials, sensor systems, and pharmaceuti-

But the pull forces go beyond new mar-
kets that want the advantage of proven
have been cals have pushed disabilities solutions
beyond crutches and therapies into the
utility. In a so-called experience econ-
marginalized— realm of enhancements. Rather than sim-
ply restoring lost functionality, disabili-
omy, new adaptations and extensions
developed for people with disabilities
where products, places, provide new ways for others to experi-
and services have been ties interventions now seek to extend
ence the world as well. Markets of all
abilities beyond what has been lost or
less than accessible ages—from young people looking for a
“missing.” Enhancement and extension
to people who didn’t competitive edge to aging boomers hop-
create new possibilities for everyone,
fit the mainstream ing to maintain peak performance—are
and people with disabilities are defining
definition of normal— primed for better-than-normal solutions.
themselves as the lead users of these
Where once they sought convenience,
the next decade may enhancements—the first markets.
performance, and aesthetic innovation in
deliver a big surprise. their environment, they are now seeking
In a marketplace where But they are not simply lead users;
those same improvements in their bod-
new product develop- they’re also becoming lead innovators.
ies and minds.
They’re collaborating in networks to
ment for disabilities has
create open-source prosthetics. They’re
been seen as a niche leveraging new rapid prototyping tools INNOVATIVE WORLDVIEWS:
undertaking at best, the and today’s flourishing do-it-yourself THE END OF NORMAL
disability space is now spirit to create custom solutions If disabilities and their adaptations are
emerging as a major that embed intelligence and sensory both seen as sources of innovation,
hot zone of innovation. technology in unexpected new materials. people may move through their days
Why? A combination And even when they themselves are taking on disabilities or enhancements
not the lead innovators, they’re using as needed—to provide strategic advan-
of new technologies,
collaborative tools to find each other, tage or to experience the world in new
new development plat- forming networks that amplify their ways. Alternative cognitive and sensory
forms, and a new quest voices and aggregate their power as a experiences may drive new ways of
for ways to become lucrative market. learning: emulating the brilliant percep-
better-than-normal is tual capacities of a person with autism
enabling people with INNOVATION PULL: or using blind adaptations to transform
disabilities to become FAST FOLLOWERS visual data into music, for example,
co-innovators, may stand side-by-side with simulations
At the same time, the markets for adap-
and games as both learning strategies
co-producers, and tive solutions and human enhancement
and new forms of entertainment. In
co-marketers of an are growing. Of the estimated 54 million
fact, turning off “normal” functional-
enhanced future people living with disabilities in the
ity that gets in the way of thinking and
for everyone. United States, only 8 to 10 million self-
performing innovatively—using adapta-
identify as such. The rest are what we
tions pioneered by and for people with
can think of as fast followers in the world
disabilities—may ultimately signal the
of technology adoption: once the solu-
end of the very concept of normal.
tion is out there, they will pull it into the
mainstream. And once it’s in the main-
i nst i tute for the f utu re
Ten-Year Forecast stream, even people without a disability
Perspectives 2008 champion the innovation—like stroller-
SR-1140 pushing parents who take advantage of
www.iftf.org

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 • Functionality over normality

INNOVATION ENABLED! • X-people lifestyles

• Assistive feedback

Superhero Sources: Dr. Robert

organizations: Gailey, University
New Commons: Transliteracy of Miami, Ossur, in
Learning New York Times, NEW STANDARDS
Commons May 16, 2007
OF PERFORMANCE
New Diasporas: Disabilities become
e
Virtual erativ superabilities through better-
n Imp • Neural interfaces
Diasporas atio than-normal enhancements—
In nov
• Open-source design platforms • Haptic interfaces and set new standards
that can only be achieved
• DIY manufacturing • Customized sensory products through enhancement
• Inclusive design • Trans-sensory civic spaces OPEN-SOURCE
WARFARE:
• Open virtual worlds • Trans-sensory art Platforms for
and games
• Alertness drugs Resilience
• Text-to-speech synthesizers
• Talking browsers
NEW MODES
COLLABORATIVE OF SENSING
A second wave of sensor
DEVELOPMENT NEW technology creates a
People with disabilities, trans-sensory world—
working collaboratively Experience
Eco n o m y
COGNITIVE with technological
with open-source systems, HORIZONS synesthesia providing new,
become lead innovators Abu nda
n t Co m p u t i n g Neuro research, multilayered experiences
as well as lead users cognitive enhancements of the world
E xt e n d e d and new measures of
Self
intelligence broaden the
spectrum of cognitive
experiences
• Long-tail marketing
• Aging boomer market New Diasporas:
Biometric
NEURO-FUTURES:
• Experience economy Diasporas
Memory
Enhancements

NEW PATHS
TO ADOPTION
People with disablities
are lead users—
but the experience
Biocitizens economy leverages fast
followers looking for
Long-t new experiences
a i l Eco n o m i
cs
Desig
n fo r S
elf-Customiza
tion
 work superhero organizations
Human Production: boundaries. Sociability will mobilize
groups and networks to create ad hoc
Work The New Givens
The workplace of the future exists in a
organizational structures for innovations.
processes new techno-social world defined by four
Collective sensemaking will combine
skills such as pattern finding and big-
have been key innovations:
picture synthesis with group facilitation
transformed • S
 ocial networks are now explicit. All the
“friending” in social networks has laid
and collaborative creation of persuasive
artifacts. Transliteracy will bring the dis-
by faster, the tracks for high-performance com-
munication and collaboration.
tinctive affordances of new media to the
creation of shared contexts and concepts
better network • Information can take any form and ar-
that mobilize action. And beta building
communication, rives in a torrent. Some people thrive in
will develop platforms to create offerings
that are never finished but always evolv-
an increasingly the info-firehose. They can use a wide ing in a public, collaborative space.
range of media to capture and express
heterogeneous work-
emerging realities.
force, and new markets In this organizational environment,
for talent and services in • W
 ork happens in real time. Instant training moves beyond the walls of
developing economies. prototyping is the norm, involving real the organization and into networks of
customers, not just a few colleagues. peer-to-peer learners. Social networks
Businesses have sped
Information finds its way to the right perform the sorting function—building
up their operations and hands quickly and turns into actions affiliations of people that leverage
squeezed inefficien- right away. No delays, just constant different sets of superhero skills. These
cies out of their supply adaptation and course correction. are the guilds of the future, loosely
chains. But no organi- structured around different styles of
• O
 penness creates leverage. Collabora- collective sensemaking, sociability,
zation has yet figured tion among employees and with outside
out how to create true transliteracy, beta building, and open
stakeholders improves when they share leadership. The online trails that people
competitive advantage information openly. Credibility, trust, leave as they navigate these networks
by using new tools and and long-term memory all get a boost. become their long-lasting resume.
networks to supercharge People adept at working with these inno-
its workforce—to vations will outperform their peers: they Counter Trend:
take advantage of the will decide faster, act faster, and mobilize The Kryptonumerite Scenario
emerging superhero skills more people around shared, constantly
These superhero organizations celebrate
in young digital natives. improving resources.
human skills and capacities. But some
The next ten years will of the same new capacities—pervasive
see the emergence Organizational Capacity: monitoring and visualization, harvesting
of the first such super- The New Competencies of open information sources, and social
hero organizations. Today’s organizations are structured network tracking—could take a different
around the core competencies of the form. We might think of this as the kryp-
past 50 years: communications, sales, tonumerite scenario in which automation
logistics, and project and people manage- of these processes leads to deskilling of
ment. As superheros enter the work- professionals and increasingly inflexible
force, some organizations will reshape systems for everything from education
themselves into superhero organizations and health to financial and security ser-
i nst i tute for the f utu re built around a set of core organizational vices. Like Superman’s kryptonite, these
Ten-Year Forecast capacities. Open leadership will lever- systems could undermine the powers
Perspectives 2008
SR-1140 age multiple capitals to mobilize diverse of tomorrow’s superhero workforce and
www.iftf.org stakeholders across organizational ultimately create a less robust economy.

© 2008 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. All brands and trademarks are the property of their respective owners. Reproduction is prohibited without written permission.
 work SUPERHERO ORGANIZATIONS • Digital video
• Webcasting and podcasting • Collective filtering
• Social networking • Social software simulations
NEURO-FUTURES: • Visual literacies NEURO-FUTURES:
HUMAN-FUTURE
INTERACTION • Blogging & photosharing COLLECTIVE
CORRECTIONS
PERVA
SIVE
MED
TRANS- Digit
al
P2P M Native
IA
ENABALED!
LITERACY A b un d
an t
ode
ls
s
NEW MODES OF
S i m Co m p SENSING
Cross-platform literacies Filte ulatio utin
New Commons:
BETA emerge as a core r i ng
Too
n g
competency—combining ls
LEARNING BUILDING traditional literacies COLLECTIVE
Commons
An emphasis on transparency
and collaborative open
and new media SENSEMAKING
develoment means everything Teams and networks
is always in beta— use bottom-up tools to
• Microblogging discover patterns in large
including organizational
• DIY collaboratives processes Superhero Skills: complex systems—
and trigger faster
• Open authorship responses
• Protovation • Location management
• Signal/noise management • Attention management
G
TIO UTIN

• Emergensight • Presence management

• Identity management
P
N

• Longbroading
S I M CO M

• Mobbability • Social filtering

UL A
NT

• Ping quotient
NDA

• Cooperation radar
ABU

• Multicapitalism SOCIABILITY
• Influency Ad hoc organizational
KRYPTO- structures emerge as large
groups and extended
NUMERITE networks self-organize to
In the organizational focus attention
equivalent of kryptonite, on pressing issues
misuse of automated POLITICs: OPEN and tasks
quantification and OPEN SOURCE
visualization undermine WARFARE LEADERSHIP
organizational Open leadership
flexibility leverages open systems el
s
to tap the vision and M od ves
P2 P ti
capabilities of diverse Na
i g i tal
stakeholders inside D
New Diasporas:
• Mortgage/credit rules and outside multiple Activist
organizations Diasporas
• Evidence-based medicine
• Standards-based education reform
TECHNOLOGY PERVASIVE ECO-MONITORING
THE REALLY BIG PICTURE: pervasive computing promises to engage
the public in a more personal bottom-up
Long MAKING THE VISIBLE INVISIBLE
Pervasive computing promises a light-
environmental science. Mobile sensors
heralded as weight approach to building a sustain-
ability infrastructure—a pervasive
could help citizens measure directly how
urban pollution impacts key personal
the next wave eco-monitoring network that shows
health measures in real time—as well as
documenting patterns of urban health.
in computing, what’s really happening in large complex
ecological systems, in real time. Indeed,
Instrumented trashcans could yield
pervasive computing household insights into a family’s role in
pervasive computing could make detailed
is finally becoming the ecological lifecycle of products—and
information about resource and energy
a reality. Soon, it profile waste patterns at the neighbor-
usage visible, from the scale of house-
hood, city, or even regional level. The
will be possible to holds to cities and even continents. It
challenge will come from reconciling
instrument our world could proactively guide more efficient
these new “freedoms of environmental
with sensors, actuators, uses of those resources and provide both
information” with the uses of that infor-
and processors, and officials and individuals with information
mation. Who owns it? Who has access to
about local pollution, energy waste, or
information processing it? And how does it feed policy, regula-
health threats. Most importantly, these
will be integrated into tion, even law enforcement?
systems will deliver immediate feedback
nearly all objects and about the short- and long-term conse-
environments. Over quences of actions taken in the present. THE FINAL TALLY:
the next decade, this THE PARADOX OF SMALL
technology may find its Massively large-scale environmental sens- Pervasive computing works for eco-
premiere application ing projects are already underway. The monitoring because it’s small, distribut-
in helping us cope National Ecological Observatory Network ed, and—well—pervasive. But therein lies
(NEON) is laying the groundwork for a paradox: as small as networked sen-
with environmental
distributed sensor monitoring of eco- sors are, their own ecological footprint
challenges—pervasive logical systems at the continental scale. is potentially very large. The smaller a
computing may MIT’s Media Lab is pursuing “wikicity” device, the more resources and energy
become pervasive projects that combine data feeds from are required in its manufacture. And per-
eco-monitoring. But local utilities and services to provide real- vasive computing requires lots and lots
the balance sheet for time maps of major metropolitan areas. of these devices. Their waste is rife with
the planet may not be Meanwhile, tools like Australia’s CSIRO lead, mercury, and other toxins, while
entirely favorable: the Catchment Modeling Toolkit provide their rapid obsolescence wreaks havoc
open- source modules for modeling the on the landfill.
environmental costs of
use of water. Such tools also be critical
the technology could not only in policy, but also in the develop- Fortunately, the computer industry has
themselves outweigh ment of economic innovations tied to sus- stepped up its commitment to green
the benefits. tainability: “triple bottom line” accounting, manufacturing and recycling. At the
the creation of carbon trading markets, same time, new technologies promise
and the cost/benefit assessment of new more closed-loop components, for ex-
environmental service programs. ample, eliminating the need for batteries
in small devices by scavenging power
THE VIEW FROM THE GROUND: through photovoltaics or even the kinet-
CITIZEN MONITORS ic motion of the devices themselves. The
i nst i tute for the f utu re key will be to ensure that the paradox of
Pervasive eco-monitoring is not all top
Ten-Year Forecast the small does not become a big barrier
Perspectives 2008 down, however. From mobile phones
to pervasive computing’s potential but
SR-1140 with pollution monitors to visualizations
www.iftf.org rather an opportunity to further drive
of environmental sensor data,
the greening of the tech industry.

© 2008 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. All brands and trademarks are the property of their respective owners. Reproduction is prohibited without written permission.
 TECHNOLOGY PERVASIVE ECO-MONITORING
• Home resource monitoring
• Hypermiling
• SMS environmental feeds agilewaves.com/products.
• Wearable health monitors PERSONAL
• Personal footprints
SUSTAINABLE pe
ris
Blue Economy:
ECOLOGIES ta
n tp
ban.org/films/images/
TheDigitalDump.jpg
Golden Age of Embedded and wearable oL
g lu
Oceanography tin sensing tools help people ti
m pu o
• Urban pulse maps co track their personal impacts n • Digital dumps
o us on the environment
• Terrestrial ecology observing uit ht e • Re-mining metals
eig ur
u biq t w ru c t
systems (TEOS) h INNOVATION: • Lifecycle energy burden
ligrast

ubiq
• Agricultural & cattle monitoring in
f New Modes
• Proliferation of devices
of Sensing

u i t i o u s co m p u t
• Continental-scale modeling
• Water modeling crad
e-t
• World Wide Sensor Web o-
MASSIVELY RICH cr
ad
INFORMATION le
sy
ENVIRONMENTS E-WASTE

ing
st
em
Very large-scale sensing, Food Webs: The balance sheet for

s
datamining, and modeling Designs for eco-monitoring is
systems provide real- Sustainability challenged by the high
time decision support for “ecological backpack” of
complex ecologies ec
o- very small devices
pr
oc
• Dematerialized goods
es
se • Multi-functional devices
in sa
New Commons: du
st
sc
om
• Virtual leisure
Urban ria mo
Commons le
co dit • Appropriate networks
ies
New Diasporas:
Activist
lo
gy SUSTAINABLE
• Citizen sensor networks Diasporas DESIGN • Design for disassembly
Products take advantage of bo • Takeback programs
• Community footprints pyr t tom o
embedded intelligence to amid f
• Product & service footprints to reduce their ecological
desi
gn • “Spime” tracking
• A new “sensing divide” BOTTOM-UP
footprint—possibly

ECO-REGULATION RECYCLE
Pervasive eco-monitoring & REUSE
becomes a new frontier E-tracking supports
of civic life—as people recycling of both
use P2P tools and mobile crad
e-to-cra
dle systems
electronic and other
sensing to track eco manufactured goods
trouble spots
Spime: virtually registered manufactured
object with built-in RFID tracking
www.nokia.com/A4707477
METHODOLOGY NEURO-FUTURES

As a species, we FUTURE AND PAST:

CONNECTIONS IN THE BRAIN
• S
 tate changes: We also have trouble
planning for futures that involve states
face challenges Past and future appear to be intricately
radically different from our own—
constructing grocery lists after a large
today that are linked in the human brain. Scientists
have found that children simultaneously
meal, for example, or planning for lean
vastly different develop the ability to recall the past,
imagine what they might do in the future,
times when business is good.

from those we and distinguish both from the present.

• M
 ultiple options: The way problems
and options are presented affect how
evolved to deal People with severe amnesia have diffi-
culty imagining themselves in the future:
we respond to them. For example,
with— scale, a patient is “unable to imagine specific
events in his personal future ... despite
lottery players who choose their own
winning numbers spend more than
complexity, no loss in general imagery abilities.”
those who play randomly assigned
numbers. Even though, statistically, the
and the speed Neuroscientists watching the brain
odds aren’t improved, the feeling of
of change all in real-time with fMRI have found a
control encourages bigger bets.

challenge us to physical basis for connections between

past and future: subjects thinking about TOOLS AND AUGMENTATIONS:
think in new past and future events activate similar
specific portions of the brain. Even at
HACKING FUTURES THINKING
Psychological insights have informed
ways about the a basic neurological level, human pasts the invention of methods, tools, and
future. and futures are connected. strategies for managing various forms
of futures bias. For example, collective
Over the last decade, FEATURES & BUGS: forecasting—crowdsourcing, prediction
scientists, especially THE FUTURE IS IN BETA markets, collaborative gaming—can help
neuroscientists, have adjust for personal bias. Recognizing the
It turns out that the ability to think about
created a detailed influence of emotional states on futures
the future is still in beta. Humans make
thinking could lead to a new emphasis
picture of just how we predictable, systematic errors when
on monitoring and manipulating moods.
think about the future. It thinking about the future, and these
Finally, various visualization tools and
seems we have a unique errors can sabotage our efforts to make
immersion strategies can help people
neurophysiology for this good choices and follow through on
vividly imagine futures that might seem
good decisions. For example:
task. But as we face a too abstract, impersonal, or other-
more complex future, wise unimaginable.
• L
 arge complex problems: Our
this neurophysiology may sensitivity to small, highly visible
actually work against Given the magnitude of challenges we
problems makes us less able to handle
face today, we need to develop a new
us—and also point to new large, more abstract problems. In one
synergy between tools and futures
tools for forecasting study, people who were asked how
thinking. And over the next decade, our
and planning. much they would pay in increased
new view of the brain will likely help us
taxes to save 2,000 birds, 20,000
develop these technologies— probably a
birds, or 200,000 birds from oil spills
mix of information technologies, mind-
answered $80, $78, and $88, respec-
enhancing drugs, and software—that
tively: this “scope insensitivity” exists
can improve our future-readiness by
because it’s difficult for people to
i nst i tute for the f utu re augmenting our native physiology and
imagine such large numbers.
Ten-Year Forecast rewiring our psychology.
Perspectives 2008
SR-1140
www.iftf.org

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METHODOLOGY NEURO-FUTURES
Food Webs:
Extreme
Planning
linical Psychology
N ew C
HAPPINESS
STRATEGIES LOCAL • Scope insensitivity
gy • Motivated skepticism
A new emphasis on happiness hn
o lo CONTEXTUAL
measures leads to new ec • Projection biases
strategies for evaluating ti
ve
T
INTERVENTIONS
the future ra ob
s Recognition of the impact of • Memory biases
M
• Belief biases
pe
rt
local context on biases about
o
Co • Future time perspective (FTP) the future leads to new tools
• Availability heuristics

a
Sm
and practices to alter the
• Shifts from optimism local cotext • Conjuncation fallacies
• Near-term choice management • Hindsight biases
• State-specific forecasting
INNOVATION:
• Positive psychology INNOVATION: New Cognitive
New Modes Horizons
• Mood alternations of Sensing
• Option management
• Gross domestic happiness • Future prototyping BIAS
• Emotion maps • Risk maps MANAGEMENT
HUMAN Simul ation
COLLECTIVE • Visualization tools FUTURE
Better understanding of
cognitive and affective
CORRECTIONS • Brainwave sensors Psychology
INTERACTION rke
ting biases will inform rules of
If biases arising from personal Ma thumb for futures research
New tools bridge our present-
experience taint our views and strategic planning
day neurocellular responses
of the future, collective with our future social and
forecasting may provide natural environments • Institutional memories
a corrective lens • Popular histories
Superhero
Organizations: • Personal narratives

ology
Collective
Sensemaking • Crowd sourcing
• Predictive markets

sych
• Collabaoratve forecasting

P
• Games
Agi

ry
n

na
• Open-source scenarios MEMORY
g

io
Po

ng
• Organizational citizenship ul ENHANCEMENTS

ut
l
p

pi
at o
behaviors (OCBs) Ev

ap
i on The neurological link betwen

M
n
www.neurosky.biz memory and future thinking ai
Br
will drive new tools and
strategies for improving
long-term planning

www.sciencemuseum.org.uk
Culture new commons
New Sector: New PRINCIPLES:
An Alternative to Markets Geographically Agnostic,
and Governments Digitally Supported, Sustainable,

New Over the past century, civic debates

and market strategies have focused
and Generative
Commons are traditionally defined as
commons are on the balance of power between the shared resources managed by those
springing up public and private sectors. Peter Barnes
describes the new commons as a third
who use them and vulnerable to social
dilemmas in which the tension between
in the fertile economic sector in Capitalism 3.0. Yo-
chai Benkler proposes a new production
the individual and the group can lead to
destruction or dysfunction. These tradi-
ground of commons as a mode of bottom-up, peer- tional commons are often geographically
“in-between” based value creation. And David Bollier
suggests a new commons movement as
defined—waterways or forests that serve
a region, for example. Finally, they are
spaces— an emerging “vocabulary” to help com-
munities align their economic, social, and
typically material resources that can
be depleted.
between private and ethical concerns in the 21st century. Five
public, social and key trends drive these new commons: New commons differ in significant ways.
economic, digital and Like traditional commons they are
physical, individual and • T
 he enclosure of public resources shared resources that are managed by
group, tangible and has triggered the formation those who use them and can fall prey
intangible—creating a of new commons to address to the destructive forces of short-term
new cultural platform inequalities of access. self-interest. But they are often built on
intangible, more than material value, so
for defining our rela- • T
 he success of self-organized
they need not be limited to a particular
tionships to each other, open systems provides new mod-
geography or a geographically bounded
to resources, and to our els for managing large-scale com-
community. Also, many new commons
collective long-term fu- mons and architecting systems of
are non-depletable: using them doesn’t
increasing returns.
ture. What makes a new use them up but instead creates addi-
commons? Dispersed • W
 orldwide market expansion tional value. And finally, most new com-
communities use new tends to commoditize resources mons take advantage of global digital
digital tools for identity that aren’t owned, managed, or communications infrastructures to both
protected driving explicit new create and manage value.
creation and affiliation
alternatives for managing them
to create and protect as commons. Examples of such new commons range
new kinds of value from from open-source curricula in learning
the bottomup. • G
 rowing system failures have
commons to open ID protocols in
inspired commons as more flex-
so-called identity commons. The most
ible and robust alternatives for
successful of these integrate commons
meeting diverse needs.
with public and private platforms to
• T
 he rise of intangibles such as create the greatest value potential. They
social, natural, and intellectual use rapid prototyping of structures and
capitals, have created new cat- practices to keep commons from being
egories and measures of value enclosed. And they build local value
from existing commons—and offer on geographically dispersed commons
i nst i tute for the f utu re important mechanisms for gov- to strengthen communities with
Ten-Year Forecast erning and sustaining them. shared value.
Perspectives 2008
SR-1140
www.iftf.org

© 2008 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. All brands and trademarks are the property of their respective owners. Reproduction is prohibited without written permission.
 • Open-source

CULTURE NEW COMMONS

• Social lending BIOCOMMONS
pharma
• Ethnobotanical
databases
rc es
• Money pooling faciliatators Re sou • Genetic geneology
lic In response to patenting databases
ub New Diasporas:
• Micropledging fP of basic components of
r eo rms Biometric • Benefits sharing
• Trust-based donations su t fo Diasporas life, biocommons emerge
c lo Pl a
En P2P of i
l i ng as shared repositories
• Micro-lending Pr of bio-information
tic
• Solari investment circles en
e
G
f Private We alt
islamic Growth o h
influences:
New
Development
• Bottom-up aggregation of • Social graphing
Ethics MONEY treatment options HEALTH • Freesouls movement
COMMONS • Childhood health as COMMONS • Open ID protocols IDENTITY
Financial regulation a commons As private health
and limited investment • Workplace health commons care costs soar, people
• Persistent avatars COMMONS
instruments drive take health into their Freeing personal
Superhero new P2P investment • Donation-based health care collective hands virtual identities from
organizations:
Open
strategies • Health and wellness mobs private websites, identity
In commons balance control
Leadership st
i tu and openness
ti

o
n
Source: sf.biomapping.
• Social solutions commons

al
Fa
POLICY • Technology supported town meetings

i
lu
r
• Electronic polling software

net/map.htm

e
COMMONS
Innovations in • Electronic decision making
governance experiment • Open government databases New Diasporas:
with commons-based Virtual
approaches to policy and • Green maps LEARNING Diasporas
decision making
• Urban pulse maps COMMONS
• Community currencies As public education
• Wireless mesh networks fails to meet the global
• Local purchasing rewards need for a literate citizenry,
• Net metering + local power generation
• Stigmergy and artist communities learning commons generate
• Open spectrum sustainable resources
• Open internet and processes
• Bicycle and car sharing
INFRASTRUCTURE Fa ili n g Ci tie s
URBAN PERVASIVE
ecomonitoring:
COMMONS COMMONS Bottom-up
Peer-to-peer structures Layering information, Eco-regulation • Open source curricula
combine with new and old media, and networks on • Media mashups and multiplayer
technologies to provide the built environment e dia
infrastructure that is lM games
Food Webs: creates new collectively cia
neither a public good nor Cooperative So • Learning technology commons
maintained urban
a private utility Innovation civic spaces • Open academic journals
• Social bookmarking
Locative Tools
• Open databases and wikis