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Election Commission of Pakistan
Government Of Pakistan
Authors:
Quaid Said
You have to stand guard over the development and maintenance of Islamic democracy, Islamic social justice and the equality of manhood in your own native soil.
Table of Contents
Introduction Message from Chairman NADRA Message from Chief Election Commissioner Chapter 1: Elections in Pakistan
1.1- A brief history 03 04 05 06 06 10 11 13 14 15 16 19 20 21 3.3 - Issues: Electoral Rolls 2002, 2007 3.4 - Preparation of Electoral Rolls 2012 Phase I: Phase II: Phase III: 3.5 - Improvements Virtual Verification of Vote Registration of Eunuchs Voters Picture on Electoral Rolls Increase in Women Voters Increase in Non-Muslim Voters 24 25 25 25 25 28 28 29 30 31 34 38 50 52
02
Throughout our history, the political process has been marred by consequential turbulences. Within the 65 years of its creation, Pakistan has seen very few general elections, that too not in a timely manner. The lack of transparency and archaic system of voter registrations have been complimented by very low voter turn outs. All these have slowed the democratic process within the country, not giving the system proper time to flourish. Commissioned by the Chairman of National Database Registration Authority (NADRA), Tariq Malik the report intends to shed light on the demographics of the voting population in the upcoming general elections in Pakistan and report upon the creation and validation of recently created computerized electoral rolls. This report highlights the key issues that the democracy in Pakistan has faced, starting with the history of general elections in Pakistan, it goes on to outline the process of elections and electoral rolls that this country has seen. The focus of this report is the stress upon the importance of the creation of the new modern
computerized electoral rolls, which have enabled Pakistan to come closer to making free and fair elections a reality. It is important to understand the role of Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) and NADRA in the creation of these electoral rolls and how time and again efforts have been launched to manually and systematically verify these computer-generated electoral rolls. Last but not the least, the most significant aspect of this report is regarding the demographics of voters in Pakistan. With the help of NADRAs bio-metric database, considered as one of the largest in the world, these demographics have been used to visualize the nature of the voters in the upcoming elections. It also helps understand the psychographics and other factors that will shape the future of politics in Pakistan. This report also manifests the strength of Pakistans current database which currently hosts data and records of about 96 per cent of the adult population of Pakistan that is more than 90 million people, therefore it can be
used for various analytical purposes to help the public sector in the country. Data pool of this magnitude alleviates the need for any ground research and covers all major aspects of a persons social standing. General elections of 2013, being considered the most pivotal elections in the nations history, will include within them a wide variety of voters. These demographics also highlight the need to make proper electoral campaigns in order to target the audience better. Some of these surprising demographics also show how various social groups which are generally considered minorities or less empowered will play the deciding card within the upcoming elections. Simultaneously, however, this report aims to convince everyone about the importance of vote and why taking part in the upcoming election is important to ensure a better future for our generations to come. Hopefully, by the end of this report, the readers will be able to put aside their apprehensions regarding the upcoming elections and will be able to realize the potential of a ballot box.
03
04
05
A Brief History
1962 1970 1977 1988 1990 1993 1997 2002 2008
Before the ince ption of parliam entary form of governance in the according to th country, elections were held e Sy where parliamen stem of Basic Democracy ts members of loca were elected indirectly by l governments. then President He Ayub Khan, Paki ld under the stan Muslim League managed to record an ex by securing 120 ceptional victor y seats.
1962
By this time, Preside nt ly rejected by politi ial form of government was complet cia eoverwhelming dema ns all over the country and the nd for Parliamentary General Yayha Khan System convinced to Elections were soon make the switch and General announced throug hout the country. Many are of the op ini elections ever to be on that these were one of the faires t held, however, iro nically, the events followed were the that most devastating in our history. With Sheikh Mujibur Re hman of Awami Le ague winning in Ea Pakistan and Zulfiq st ar West resulting in bit Bhutto of Pakistan Peoples Party in ter disparities, in th infamous war betw e midst of which th ee e in separation of Ea n Pakistan and India erupted resulting st and West Pakistan Prime Minister of . Bhutto became th Pakistan in 1971. e
1970
ration of after the sepa oples ld he be to Pe First elections om West saw Pakistan ity. PPP fr or East Pakistan by an overwhelming maj l ta to ng a ni in of w t y ou rt ) Pa 115 (77.5% in ns of w tio to ga le ed ever al manag 0 seats. How s resulting 20 de of si r l al be m om nu fr ne-party d pouring in rigging starte st and formation of a ni ocracy, re D un ation of em in a major ent for Restor afterwards em ov M e, allianc up soon a military co -Haq. Zulfiqar Ali resulting in ul aZi al er Gen enforced by nged two years later. ha Bhutto was
1977
06
both from exile of s the return ntest against each es n it w ld Elections wou d Benazir Bhutto to co were overshadowed if an s. Elections Nawaz Shar p of 11 year orst of its kind in this ga a r te af er oth , the w reported from ion violence by pre-elect ber of casualties were arsada, Parachinar, m Ch u country. A n of the country such as e on 27th ts t shock cam different par ur. However, the bigges lly in Liaqat Bagh, ra ja Swat and Ba , when while leaving a ated. Elections had in 07 ss 20 sa r was as on 8th Decembe nazir Bhutto month and took place Be i, d in p al ta Raw e ou er w ab r at fo ats th oned to be postp . Out of a total of 342 se 91 seats went to hile 08 w 20 6 y 12 ar u in L-N br w Fe to n PPP and PM P managed available, PP ion government betwee Asif Ali Zardari d alit PML-N. A co ith Yusuf Raza Gilani an ent respectively. id w es ed Pr d rm was fo ister an e Prime min th g in m co be
2008
Held un d Musharr er the military -g af. Pakis (PML-Q) tan Mu overnment of seats w managed to w slim League Qu General Pervez in h (PPPP) ile Pakistan Pe 118 out of a aid-e-Azam came in total of oples P 3 party le a ader of second with 80 rty Parliamen 42 ta win 18 PML-N a . rians Ja v e dH s t appointeeats. Mir Zafaru that time wh ashmi was th ic e ll h d ah Kh as th mana the firs t Baloch e 13th Prime M an Jamali was ged to in almo inister o to achie s Benazir t a decade and ve this feat. Fo f Pakistan and r B campaig hutto were no a half, both N the first time aw t a part n. of an e az Sharif and lection
2002
By winnin g victory wh 137 seats, PMLN re c il Nawaz Sh e PPP only manag orded a massive ed to win arif was o nce again 18 seats. Prime Min se is of rigging ter however once lected as the a b g unearthed y means of filling e ain allegations x re such as E sulting in interna tra ballots uro ti Nations a pean Union and onal observers Commonw bstaining from labe ealth of as free a ling nd Inter-Parlia fair according to the elections a re mentary U nion (IPU). port by
1997
in return of PPP to Elections resulted Bhutto becoming zir power with Bena man Prime the first Muslim wo egations of all ain Minister. Yet ag d in President corruption resulte sacking her merely an Kh Ghulam Ishaq 20 months later.
1988
Victory for Islamic De mo resulted in Nawaz Sh cratic Alliance (IDA) arifs coming to powe r. PPP boycotted the electi ons Movement (MQM) alo while Mutahida Qaumi ng with Peoples De mocratic Alliance (PDA) were competing IDA. IDA managed to win 105 out of a total of 237 seats. PD A came second with 45, Wh ile MQM was the on ly other party to enter doub le figures by winning 15 seats. Allegations of riggin g continue to be dis cussed in the Supreme Court to this day.
1990
Elections witnessed the retu rn of Benazir Bhutto to power cou rtesy of PPP winning 86 out of a total of 237 seats, while Pakistan Muslim Lea gue Nawaz (PML-N) turned out to be a close runner up by winning 73 seats. Pak istan Muslim League Junejo cam e in third with 6 seats.
1993
07
Pakistan
otes
Pakistan
otes
02
ote Why V ge
40 spend e w ra ebo ok, On ave on Fac y a d s less es a g take minut n i t o v on. age r pers e p on aver s e t u one 0 min than 1 on just s e t u fe for min your li A few t c a p an im day, c ars five ye t x e n the
Why Vote
10
2.1
the nated i m i l a e A has on for NADR r egistrati C I of all CN hassle wing o l l a y vote vote b cast a o t s r holde
9
PAKISTAN
15
INDIA
16
UK
16
TURKEY
22
ARGENTINA
25
AUSTRALIA
21
CANADA
16
FRANCE
11
Why Vote When you skip voting, its not rebellion, its surrender
Fig 2.2 Comparison: Frequencies and Timings of General Elections Since 1947
12
2.2
Women Participation
Pakistan fares better than countries like Brazil, UK and India in terms of gender ratio within the parliament.
Pakistan is the first Muslim country in the world to host a female head of the state; Peoples Party won the elections in 1988 installing Benazir Bhutto as the prime minister of Pakistan. From a global perspective Pakistan is among the top 50% of the countries in terms of representation of women in the parliaments. Table 2.1 shows a list of selected countries along with the percentage that comprises of women within their respective parliaments. It can be seen that Pakistan fares better than countries like Brazil, UK and India in terms of gender ratio within the parliament. A major dynamic behind this is also the fact that majority of the women who make it to the parliament achieve their status through a reserved quota of seats. However, it is interesting to note that all the countries that are mentioned in table 2.1 also have a reserved quota based on gender. This shows that women in Pakistan are an integral part of the political machinery and, if exercised properly, their vote could make a significant change in the paradigm of the countrys governance.
Country
Rwanda Denmark Germany Iraq Pakistan United Kingdom Bangladesh India Brazil Egypt
Seats taken by women 45 of 80 70 of 179 204 of 622 82 of 325 76 of 342 143 of 650 64 of 345 59 of 545 44 of 513 10 of 508
% of women in Parliament 56.30% 39.10% 32.80% 25.20% 22.20% 22% 18.60% 10.80% 8.60% 2%
13
2.3
Country
Australia Singapore Uzbekistan Germany United Kingdom Sri Lanka United States of America India Russia Bangladesh Pakistan Egypt Ivory Coast
Average Turnout % (vote/reg) 94.5 93.5 93.5 85.4 75.2 74.3 66.5
59.4 58.4 58.2 45.3 45.1 37.0
at you ar e r egister ed to vote, and that you kn ow wher e your vote is r egister ed by texting your CNIC number to 8300
169
Mali
21.3
14
2.4
Compulsory Voting
Voting in Pakistan has never been a compulsion, a fact that has been a major factor among others for the low voter turnout over the years. Australia is considered among the first countries to adapt the concept of compulsory voting which is why the voter turnout ratio is as high as 94 percent. Belgium is also considered amongst the pioneers of compulsory voting where voting was made obligatory as early as 1892. Argentina, Holland and Venezuela are among others. However the level of enforcement is not as strict as in Australia where a non-voter can be fined and in case of not submitting the fine in due course, the offender may also face imprisonment.
oter non-v a m u lgi chised In Be nfran e s i d in maybe voting t o n ctions upon ur ele o f t s a at le rs 15 yea within
In Peru, a voter is r equir ed to carry a stamped voti ng car d as a pr oof for having voted
nonralia a t s u A d In be fine d l u o c d in voter ing an t o v t o g for n mittin not sub f o l a e s ca ay so der m n e f f o the ment. prison m i e c a f
15
2.5
16 17 18 19 20 21
16
Know Your Rights! Each voter has the right to choose his or her favorite candidate, without any external inuence or pressure.
Country
Last elections
Registration
Australia Bangladesh Ivory Coast Egypt Germany India Mali Pakistan Russia Singapore Sri Lanka UK United States
2010 2008 2011 2012 2009 2009 2007 2008 2011 2011 2010 2010 2010
14,086,869 81,130,973 5,664,377 47,192,169 62,168,489 716,985,101 6,267,363 79,934,801 109,237,780 2,211,102 14,088,500 45,597,461 218,054,301
Uzbekistan
Table 2.3 Source: IDEA
2010
87.8
17,215,700
18,374,902
% of adult population registered for vote 86.9 92.6 49.7 88.6 91.3 97.1 121.0 87.0 96.4 56.8 95.2 92.8 90.5 93.7
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Pakistan
otes
Pakistan
otes
Electoral Roll
Chapter 03
3.1
20
oter h Each v or her hout se his te, wit to cho o a d i d e can nce favorit influe l a n r e t any ex ssur e. e r or p
3.2
Age group 18-25 26-35 36-45 46-55 56-65 66 and above Total
Number of registered voters 17.5 million 24.2 million 17.2 million 12 million 8.4 million 6.7 million 86.1 million
Fraction of total voters (%) 20.35 28.10 19.99 13.94 9.81 7.81 100.00
Table 3.1: Age-wise distribution of Pakistanis registered in the Final Electoral Rolls 2013 - Source: NDWH NADRA
21
37 million unveried votes represented almost half of the total electoral rolls of 2008.
The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) with the help of National Database Registration Authority (NADRA) finalized and published the Final Electoral Rolls (FER) 2012, enlisting a total of 86.2 million voters on 31st July, 2012. Table 3.1 shows the age-wise distribution of all the voting age population that has been enlisted in the Final Electoral Rolls of 2012. The FER is a list containing names of all those, who are
Province Balochistan FATA Federal Area Khyber Pakhtun Khwa Punjab Sindh Total Men 1,915,318 1,142,234 337,907 7,008,538 27,697,703 10,491,837 48,593,537
registered as voters under the Electoral Rolls Act 1974 as eligible voters (18 years & above in age) and hold Computerized National Identity Card (CNIC) issued by NADRA in a particular area. The new FERs have been sent to ECP offices at district level to facilitate further changes like registration of new voters who attain the age of 18 years and correction of particulars of voters.
* There are approximately 687 Eunuchs(Khawaja Sira) in Pakistan Table 3.2: Region wise distribution of voters Source: NDWH NADRA
22
In Pakistan, the updating of the Electoral Rolls (ER) is a regular and continuous process. However, law requires temporarily stopping the process once the general elections are announced. The current electoral rolls of Pakistan will stop being updated 60 days before the election, and will resume once elections have been held. Likewise, if any constituency is called upon to elect its representative even in bye-elections, no amendments can be made to the electoral rolls till after the elections. At all other times when an election schedule has not been announced the addition/amendment to the ER continues as per rules. This ensures that no last minute changes to the data can hinder the process of elections and create a bias in the outcome. Also, necessary arrangements need to be made according the registered voters in each region, and thus require a full and final list at least 2 months before the date of the elections. In order to make the process transparent, access to the electoral rolls has been given to the general public. Any person can get a copy of electoral roll or an extract from
the electoral roll from the Registration Officer concerned on payment of Rupees ten per page paid in the form of Court Fee stamps.
Voter s Responsibility
23
3.2
24
3.4
Phase III: A virtual verification service was developed whereby any citizen could verify their vote by texting their CNIC number to 8300. After the display period was exhausted and objections were received, the last phase was executed to prepare the final electoral rolls.
25
0 611
1-2
E NAMy z x 7 09-
092
8300 SMS Service 7.1 Million Hits OBJECTIONS & MODIFICATIONS (4 MILLION FORMS) APR, 2012
SCANNING DATA ENTRY
Figure 3.1
PRODUCTION FACILITY
SECTION
18
3.5
Improvements
Virtual Verication of Voters
16.2 million: The number of people who have veried their votes by texting their CNIC number to 8300.
ECP in collaboration with NADRA introduced a unique Short Messaging Service through which all registered voters were able to send their CNIC number without hyphens to 8300 from anywhere in the country. Upon doing so the sender would receive a message in Urdu containing their name, location of electoral area and the serial number of vote registered in the electoral rolls. CNIC Previously, the only method of checking ones vote NUMBER was to personally visit a center where the election lists 61101-2092509-7 were being displayed.
61101-2092509-7
8300
SENDING
voter
Figure 3.2 Voter Verification Process
28
Registration of Eunuchs
687: The number of Eunuchs registered with the ECP
Another initiative taken recently in order to enhance registration and to include maximum number of citizens in the voter bracket was the issuance of CNICs to Eunuchs which automatically made them eligible to vote for the upcoming elections. This step was the first of its kind in the countrys history because of which this particular segment of the population was given the right of being identified as citizens of the state, something that they were previously denied. Under the new instructions, third genders could have male transgender, female transgender or Khunsa-e-Mushkil written on their CNIC according to their own will. Other than issuing identification documents at various registration centers across the nation, special Mobile Registration Vans (MRVs) were also deployed to facilitate registration of eunuchs in far flung and remote areas. Previously Eunuchs were unable to cast votes because of the fact that they were not officially recognized as members of the state. Moreover NADRA has also been providing job opportunities to the third gender at its regional offices in order to engage them as productive citizens of the society. This step was taken not only to set an example for other organizations but also to help in registration of other eunuchs.
s Voter
29
e insid e t o v do our Put y rself, u o y the x bo af f at t s ballot for y do it sk an o a t t o n tion g sta pollin you.
30
31
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Series1
Balochistan
FATA
Federal Area
Punjab
Sindh
5,191,887
1,404,214
489,433
281,193
21,202,308
8,300,719
Figure 3.4 Area-wise breakdown: Female Voters (Source: National Data Warehouse NADRA)
32
Punjab Rural Punjab Urban Sindh Rural Sindh Urban Khyber Pakhtun Khwa Rural Khyber Pakhtun Khwa Urban Balochistan Rural Balochistan Urban FATA Rural FATA Urban
1% 11% 12% 3% 2% 2%
not vot ing, y also vot ou ar e ing.. F o r the party that yo u do n support ot !
Why V ote By
33
34
2.2
e Why Vot
BADIN 19.03
utes few min a g n i c i Sacrif years for ry five ve e e c on much y can be r t n ou c the than staking r less pain life as ou ng your i c i f i r c sa rs did. for efathe
Figure 3.7 %age of Non-Muslim Voters From Total Number of Voters District Wise (Source: NDWH NADRA)
35
Pakistan
otes
Pakistan
otes
04
35.17%
38
Almost half of the National Assembly of Pakistan could be formulated due to youth vote.
It is expected that the voter turnout in 2013 elections will be much higher than the 2002 and 2008 elections because of a number new policies governing the electoral roles. NADRA has helped in providing majority of the voting age population, a voting right, by allowing anyone with a valid CNIC to participate in the electoral process. This means that the number of registered voters this year is going to be a record high. This also comes along with other facilitations provided by NADRA and ECP, which has streamlined the voting procedure and made it easier for people to vote, hence churning a higher voter turnout. An important factor in expecting a higher voter turnout in the 2013 general elections in Pakistan is also the politically aware youth. Youth being identified as anyone within the age bracket of 18 to 35. According the Final Electoral Roll published in July 2012, 40.1 million citizens belong to this age bracket, which comprises of almost half of the total number of registered voters. Figure 4.2 shows the comparison between registered voters in the youth brackets with those who are older than 35 years of age.
This shows the power that the youth will have in the upcoming elections.
Figure 4.2 - Youth voters vs. Elder voters (Source: NDWH NADRA)
39
Approximately 43 out of a total of 99 seats of KPK Assembly will be determined by female vote
Figure 4.3 displays the distribution of all the registered voters according to age brackets. This displays the demographics of the voters in the upcoming elections. And emphases the important role that the age brackets of 18-25 and 26-35 will play in the upcoming elections in Pakistan. Apart from age brackets, gender ratios are also important in the decision of governance in any country. As mentioned earlier, Pakistan is amongst the top 50 countries according to the participation of women in the parliament. Among the registered voters in the electoral rolls of 2012, female voters comprised of 43% of the electoral rolls. However, sociological reason and lack of information for women is often the cause for their lack of registration for a vote. In rural areas of Pakistan, many women do not get their CNICs made because they are unable to leave their house without a male guardian and hence do not consider it necessary enough to register themselves in the national database.
Voters Male
Figure 4.3 - Gender ratios- Voters VS All population (Source: NDWH NADRA
40
19%
41
Khyber Pakhtun Khwa Figure 4.5 - Gender ratios of voters in each province (Source: NDWH NADRA)
Figure 4.5 shows the gender ratio of the voters in each province in Pakistan. Highest gap in the ratios can be seen in FATA. Ratios in the rest of the country are almost similar, with the least difference being seen in the Federal
Balochistan
FATA
Federal Area
Punjab
Sindh
e Why Vot
Area. These demographics show the importance of vote of women in the upcoming elections.
42
Figure 4.6 Gender ratio of young voters in each province (Source: NDWH NADRA)
43
4% 2% 22%
1%
15%
56%
Figure 4.7 Young voter geographic breakdown (Source: NDWH NADRA)
44
ess than 50% of people i Pakistan n ar e abov e t age. M h e vo t ing eaning, when you you ar e vote, not onl y voting your tom f or orr ow b ut also f your fut or ur e gen eration s.
Why Vot e L
0 Rural Urban
45
Rural/Urban Breakdown
Rural 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Balochistan FATA Federal Area Khyber Pakhtun Khwa Punjab Sindh Urban
Figure 4.9 Rural/Urban breakdown (Source: NDWH NADRA) In Pakistan one of the main driving force behind party manifestoes for elections is the need to cater the demand of different segments of the society. Figure 4.9 shows the ratios of the population that reside in Rural and Urban area within each province. It can be clearly seen that FATA and KPK hold large rural populace; however Sindh and Punjab relatively have a higher ratio of urban population. Similarly, it can be seen in Figure 4.8 that the rural population comprises of more men, then the urban population. The gender ratio is higher in the rural areas of Pakistan according for voter population.
46
Figure 4.10 shows that majority of the population of Pakistan resides within their permanent place of residence. This shows that they are much more likely to be familiar with their surroundings and political history of the area
90,000,000 80,000,000 70,000,000 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 0 Voters count
they reside in. Data shows that roughly 10% of Pakistani voters reside in an address that is different from their permanent address.
Same Current and Permanent Address Dierent Current and Permanent Address
47
Pakistan
otes
Pakistan
otes
Conclusion
Conclusion
Lack of transparency, rigging, bogus votes, and low voter turnout are some of the slogans that are often heard during and after almost every election season. While it is easy to point out all such blemishes, little has been during our history to plug these leaks. After every election season, we are left with a bitter taste of these issues which seems to have formed strong roots within the system. This has led to a large sum of population being dismayed by the electoral process. At the same time, these factors account for hindrances on the road to achieving a stable democratic structure in Pakistan. The upcoming General Elections are going to be monumental and a milestone in the history of the nation. Pakistans introduction of a completely automated system ensures elimination of a number of frauds that were experienced previously. As outlined earlier in the report, steps such as these will bear fruit for the nation not only for the coming months but also in the long run. NADRA and ECP have joined hands to eliminate all sorts of discrepancies within electoral rolls and have been able to implement a number of mechanisms to help minimize rigging by a great extent. These tireless efforts are being carried out to provide the nation with a completely fair voting system, which will be a true reflection of the nations desires. This, however, also relies heavily on the will of the public to participate in the democratic process by realizing the importance of its right to vote.
50
Pakistan
otes
References
References
ECP (2013), Comparison between FER-2007 and DER-2011 Electoral Rolls, Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) ECP (2008), Report: General Elections 2008 Volume 2, Election Commission of Pakistan Elections 2013 (2013), Election Statistics of Pakistan, Pakistan Elections NCSW (2008), Institutional Review of NCSW Support to Implementation of GRAPs: Gender Review of Political Framework for Women Political Participation, National Commission on the Status of Women (NCSW), Islamabad National Data Ware House (NDWH), National Database and Registration Authority (NADRA), Ministry of Interior, Government of Pakistan, Islamabad. PILDAT (2010), Citizen Group on Electoral Process: State of Electoral Rolls in Pakistan, Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency (PILDAT) Pintor R. and Gratschew M. (2002), Voter Turnout since 1945, A Global Report, International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA) PRR-HEC, the First General Elections in Pakistan, Pakistan Research Repository - Higher Education Commission, Pakistan
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Just like every life counts, every vote counts as well, so in order to be counted, make sure you vote. Vote for your future! Tariq Malik (Chairman NADRA)