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Chpt 1: Thinking Critically with Psychological Science I) Introduction a) Why do people turn to psychology?

i) To handle problems ii) To answer questions; wonder b) How can we best use psychology to understand why people think, feel, and act as they do? II) The Need for Psychological Science: Critical thinking/inquiry will override hindsight bias and judgmental overconfidence and determine truth a) The Limits of Intuition and Common Sense i) Intuitive Management: rely on hunches over statistical models to make business decisions ii) Intuition is often false iii) Did We Know it All Along? Hindsight Bias (1) Aka hindsight is 20/20 (2) When, only after discovering the outcome, one believes they could have predicted the event. (3) Ex: Out of sight, out of mind v. Absence makes the heart grow founder both can easily fit our intuition retrospectively (4) Common sense is often wrong because it is based on after the fact info. (a) Can justify or explain, but doesnt predict well (5) Intuition founded in observation iv) Overconfidence (1) Tendency for people to be overly sure of their answers/abilities (2) Confidence>Correctness (3) Even once proven wrong, individuals tend to justify their answer and remark on how close they were, thus further rooting this confidence. v) Hindsight bias+overconfidence=limit of intuition and common sense. This is fought by scientific inquiry/critical thinking b) The Scientific Attitude: How does the scientific attitude encourage critical thinking i) Foundation of scientific thinking: Can we test it? (1) Historical examples: Moses-tests prophets (2) Curious skepticism: What do you mean? How do you know? Show me the evidence! (3) Humility in so far as we have to be willing to admit our own errors ii) Critical Thinking (1) Characteristics: examines assumptions, discerns hidden values, evaluates evidence, assesses conclusions (2) Critical thinking forces one to hold a scientific attitude. It begs the question how do we know; show me the evidence? c) The Scientific Method i) Theory (1) Everyday language=mere hunch (2) Science=integrated set of principles that organizes and predicts behaviors or events. Bridge between various facts and connecting them to deeper principles. (3) Ex. Re depression: Low self-esteem contributes to depression b/c self-steem principle summarizes many facts about people with depression.

(4) Think big questions that help make conclusions. (5) Must produce testable predictions ii) Hypothesis (1) Testable predicitions of the theory (2) Provide direction to test, reject, or revise theory iii) Bias in Testing (1) Urge to see what is expected/what supports our hypothesis. (2) Ex. Re depression: neutral comments interpreted as comments illustrating low self esteem iv) Replication (1) Provides a way to check bias (2) Relies on utilizing operational definitions of concepts so that others can follow the same approach (a) Operational Definition: statement of the procedures used to define research variables (e.g. human intelligence is operationally defined as what is measures by a specific intelligence test). Aka a definition very specific to your contextthink philosophy arguments. (3) More replicationMore confidence in the community. (4) The final result refines existing theories into better theories or generates new ones. III) Description: Objective and systematic way to observe and describe people often in order to draw conclusions about why they behave the way they do. a) The Case Study