BWD GLOBAL

SEPT. 26, 2013 TO: JOE MONAHAN

FROM: Bruce Donisthorpe RE: SEPT. 25TH MAYORAL SURVEY SUMMARY & HIGHLIGHTS

METHODOLOGY Automated phone dialing survey using established demographic methodological standards to 452 likely voting Demcratic, Republican and Independent registered households with known voting history in general elections from throughout the City of Albuquerque, New Mexico. Surveys were conducted using this method between 6 pm and 9 pm. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted or adjusted at the top-line to ensure that responses accurately reflect the populations makeup by factors such as age, sex, region, and other established demographic standards and variables. The margin of sampling error for the surveys conducted for this questions is 4.6% with a 95% level of confidence for the interviews conducted in this survey. TOP LINE: Question: In the race for Mayor, who would you support between Richard J. Berry, Pete Dinelli and Paul Heh? BERRY 60.6% DINELLI 25.9% HEH 5.1% UNDEC 8.4% Margin of Error: 4.6% 452 Likely Voters, City of Albuquerque Bruce Donisthorpe has been polling professionally since 2006. He has conducted several polls for Joe Monahans political blog in the 2008, 2010 and 2012 campaigns. And conducted a survey on Mayor Berrys public approval rating last year. He was active in polling the City of Albuquerque elections in 2009, in which he accurately forecasted Berrys win and the upset victory by City Councillor Dan Lewis in District 5. Donisthorpe conducted a poll of the Mayors race on August 27th earlier this year.

ANALYSIS OF RESULTS THE BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: Mayor Berry has a commanding lead as the race enters the last two weeks of the campaign. He is holding to over 60% of the vote by relying on his strong support of Republican (82%), Independent (59%) and Democratic (44%) likely voters. Berry has increased his lead among GOP and INDP voters since our last survey and has held his ground among DEM voters. While Berry has had large gains among DEM voters since our last survey, most of those gains have come from the previously-undecided DEM column. Berrys gains have not caught on in the REP and INDP groups, by and large.

OTHER SURVEY QUESTIONS VOTER IDEOLOGY: The Duke City electorate is broken into three segments: Progressive/Liberal at 33%, Moderate at 30% and Conservative at 36%. DEMs consist of 46% Prog/Lib, 35% Mod and 19% Consv. REPs are composed of 61% Consv, 26% Moderate and 13% Prog/Lib. INDP voters are 50% Prog/Lib, 25% Mod and 25% Consv. In the Mayoral race: Dinelli has the lead among Liberal (56%) and Progressive (50%) voters while Berry leads among Moderate (63%) and Conservative (88%) voters. TOP VOTING ISSUE: Jobs comes in as the top voting issue with 49%, followed by Education (16%), Crime (15%), Albuquerque Police Department (10%) and Environment at 8%. REP voters prefer Jobs (65%) at a higher rate than DEM (39%) and INDP (36%) voters. DEM and INDP voters have higher concerns about the APD than REP likely voters. Education comes in a strong second (26%) among INDP voters. In the Mayors race: Berry has solid lead over Dinelli among Jobs voters (72-17), Education (64-23) and Crime (64-16) voters. Dinelli has the lead over Berry among Environment (5126) and APD (46-30) voters. Heh, a former APD officer, scores highest among voters who rate APD as the most important issue at 11%. Environment and APD voters have the highest undecided voter percentages of all top voting categories. AREA: The Mayor has leads in all geographical sectors of the City. On the West Side, he leads Dinelli by a 65-24 margin. In the Valley, Berry is ahead 42-38. In the SE and Mid-NE Heights, Berry has a 51-32 lead over Dinelli while the Mayor has a commanding 72-17 lead in the NE Heights. The DEM-leaning Valley has the highest percentage of undecided voters at 14%. PERSONAL ECONOMIC SITUATION: We asked respondents if they were better off or worse off economically than they were four years ago. 38% said they were better off, while 37% said they were worse off. About 23% said they were about the same. In the Mayors race: Berry has large lead over Dinelli among voters who are better off (7815) and about the same (66-26). Voters who are worse off economically still favor the Mayor, but its by a much smaller margin at 42-37.

VIEW OF ALBUQUERQUES FUTURE: We asked LVs if they had a favorable or unfavorable view of Albuquerques future. About 69% responded favorable, while 20% said unfavorable. The remaining 11% was undecided. About 75% of REP voters had a favorable view, as compared to 67% of INDP voters and 63% of DEM voters. In the Mayors race: Berrys lead among favorable voters was 71-20 over Dinelli. Those expressing an unfavorable view supported Dinelli by a 44-33 margin over the Mayor. Voters who were unsure supported the Mayor by a 51-30 rate.

Demographic Crosstabs are on the next page.

ALBUQUERQUE MAYORAL BALLOT TEST DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKOUTS CATEGORY OVERALL

GENDER FEMALE DEM REP INDP MALE DEM REP INDP ETHNICITY ANGLO DEM REP INDP HISPANIC DEM REP INDP PARTY DEM REP INDP IDEOL PROG LIB MOD CONSV UNSURE AREA WEST SIDE VALLEY SE/MID HEIGHTS NE HEIGHTS TOP VOTING ISSUE ABQ POLICE DEP CRIME EDUCATION ENVIRONMENT JOBS/ECON OTHER

TOTAL 452

BERRY 274

BERRY% 60.6% 63% 50% 86% 53% 58% 38% 79% 53% 67% 49% 86% 80% 54% 45% 82% 47% 44% 82% 59% 36% 33% 63% 88% 35% 65% 42% 51% 70%

DINELLI DINELLI% 117 25.9% 25% 35% 10% 27% 28% 45% 8% 26% 21% 36% 6% 25% 34% 40% 19% 35% 40% 9% 26% 50% 56% 23% 3% 22% 24% 38% 32% 20%

HEH 23

HEH% 5.1% 5% 5% 2% 9% 5% 3% 9% 3% 5% 6% 4% 5% 2% 3% 0% 0% 5% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 3% 13% 3% 7% 7% 4%

UNDEC 38

UND% 8.4% 8% 10% 2% 11% 9% 14% 5% 8% 7% 9% 3% 10% 10% 12% 10% 18% 11% 4% 9% 9% 6% 9% 5% 30% 9% 13% 10% 6%

30% 64% 64% 26% 72% 38%

46% 26% 23% 51% 17% 50%

11% 4% 5% 6% 4% 0%

14% 6% 8% 17% 7% 13%

PERSONAL ECONOMIC SITUATION BETTER OFF WORSE OFF ABOUT SAME VIEW OF ABQ FUTURE FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE UNSURE

78% 42% 66%

15% 37% 26%

2% 9% 4%

5% 13% 4%

71% 33% 52%

20% 44% 31%

3% 12% 4%

6% 11% 14%